Kostya Medvedovsky with a look at the data on rematches in the postseason:
~~~~~~~
Also:
Here's what FC wrote in the regular season: http://soshcentral.com/nfl/games/previews/2015/01/11/back-future-patriots-vs-colts-analysis-review/
And here's the thoughts on the rematch: http://soshcentral.com/nfl/games/previews/2015/01/16/2015-afc-championship-coverage-patriots-vs-colts/
For example, my version of Simple Rating System (“SRS”) says the Patriots should be favored by approximately 7.1 points. Football Outsiders expects a closer game, putting the line at 5.7 points. However, both these systems largely ignore the fact that the teams played earlier this year, with the Patriots winning comfortably on the road, 42-20.
Does this matter? Do playoff rematches resemble their regular season counterparts? Let’s take a quick look through NFL history to see what can be gleaned.
~~~~~~~
Also:
Here's what FC wrote in the regular season: http://soshcentral.com/nfl/games/previews/2015/01/11/back-future-patriots-vs-colts-analysis-review/
And here's the thoughts on the rematch: http://soshcentral.com/nfl/games/previews/2015/01/16/2015-afc-championship-coverage-patriots-vs-colts/