Poll: Cam, Mac, Brian or?

[pdaj]

As a Dolphins fan, I'd love to see Mac Jones start the season.

Last year, Cam Newton won in Miami with an absolute garbage supporting cast. He was healthy, and ran like it, which is a challenging variable for a defense to prepare for. Combine that with a solid OL and running game, as well as talented receiving TEs who can operate in "run looks," and you have somethin' cooking. I expect the New England defense to be very, very good. The early-season Cam-lead offense will have to control the clock, avoid turnovers, and score 17-20-ish points per game. For the first part of the season, that's going to work just fine for a handful of Ws.

As for Mac? A rookie QB vs. a multiple defense? A guy who you know is guying to stay/operate in the pocket on 3rd and 5+? IMO, Jones starting Week 1 significantly increases the Dolphins chance at a victory.

I'm rooting for Jones to start. Badly. But it won't happen.

(Note: I do expect Mac to take over at some point, mid-year.)

 

[DourDoerr]

When he missed time last year it derailed the season. Newbie Cam fell way behind and the offense suffered. That wasn't the whole reason, the roster was shit last year in too many places, but you have to imagine the coaching staff will bake this into the calculation. How couldn't they? Availability at QB is kind of important... I was saying Cam should start but if Mac looks like he can hack it and Cam's unvaccinated status is a liability my own opinion is moving closer and closer to feeling like Mac should be the guy. Let's see what the practices this week and the game looks like but right now I feeling a little more sure that Mac should be the guy.

I think you're correct on this and the staff has to take this into account. They may view this scenario, however, through the lens of Mac as a smooth transition if Cam gets sidelined. It's good news for Cam - they can run with him because they have Mac in reserve. In other words, I'd guess that Cam's vaccine status might be a factor in determining the starter, but I don't think it would necessarily be a big one.

 

[DourDoerr]

Per the story in the link below, Mac was 29-34 in competitive snaps today, with 2 INTS.

First one on the QB, but off a deflection, second on, per Lazar, on Gunner.

I see 29-34 and it's goosebumps. That kind of accuracy means extended drives. I'm hoping this translates well with what the staff is seeing. A drive-killing bad throw is so deflating. Because of the o-line, RB's, and now the weapons at WR and TE, I'm thinking (perhaps with rose-colored glasses) that Mac starts game 1. The very public support of key vets and the reported unvarnished enthusiasm for his play by teammates during practice and games gives me the impression that Mac has the team's confidence as well. BB doesn't throw away games. He might have toyed around in the 1st 4 games during Brady era, but Brady could cover a lot of sins. The margin of error is too tight now. If he judges Mac is ready - and 5 incompletions in 34 throws (on top of the arm strength and accuracy he's shown in pre-season games and camp), his ability to feel pressure and move within a closing pocket, as well as experience in the biggest college games are all positive indicators to me - I think BB's pulling that lever.

 

[RedOctober3829]

As a Dolphins fan, I'd love to see Mac Jones start the season.

Last year, Cam Newton won in Miami with an absolute garbage supporting cast. He was healthy, and ran like it, which is a challenging variable for a defense to prepare for. Combine that with a solid OL and running game, as well as talented receiving TEs who can operate in "run looks," and you have somethin' cooking. I expect the New England defense to be very, very good. The early-season Cam-lead offense will have to control the clock, avoid turnovers, and score 17-20-ish points per game. For the first part of the season, that's going to work just fine for a handful of Ws.

As for Mac? A rookie QB vs. a multiple defense? A guy who you know is guying to stay/operate in the pocket on 3rd and 5+? IMO, Jones starting Week 1 significantly increases the Dolphins chance at a victory.

I'm rooting for Jones to start. Badly. But it won't happen.

(Note: I do expect Mac to take over at some point, mid-year.)

Week 1 was at New England last year.

How is preparing for Mac any easier than preparing for Cam? You don't have to even think about the passing game because Cam doesn't throw it well. The Dolphins didn't do very well vs. Cam in Week 1 because there was no film on what they were going to do. Look at the rematch in December and tell me they didn't have Cam figured out. Mac Jones is a much better option for the Patriots at this point. He makes the opposing defense have to prepare for both run and pass. The offense will most likely be in a better rhythm and cadence.

 

[Big McCorkle]

The Dolphins didn't do very well vs. Cam in Week 1 because there was no film on what they were going to do.

The Patriots scored 21 points in that game and converted third downs at a fifty percent clip. They ran five more plays total than the Dolphins did. The Dolphins didn't do very well vs. Cam in Week 1 because their offense was anemic and couldn't move the ball to save their life, allowing the Patriots to practically and literally run the clock out. They scored eleven points. That had far more to do with why they lost that game than anything relating to Cam and the offense.

 

[RedOctober3829]

The Patriots scored 21 points in that game and converted third downs at a fifty percent clip. They ran five more plays total than the Dolphins did. The Dolphins didn't do very well vs. Cam in Week 1 because their offense was anemic and couldn't move the ball to save their life, allowing the Patriots to practically and literally run the clock out. They scored eleven points. That had far more to do with why they lost that game than anything relating to Cam and the offense.

Oh yeah no question. But there was an element of the unknown that first game because no one knew what to expect.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I see 29-34 and it's goosebumps. That kind of accuracy means extended drives. I'm hoping this translates well with what the staff is seeing. A drive-killing bad throw is so deflating. Because of the o-line, RB's, and now the weapons at WR and TE, I'm thinking (perhaps with rose-colored glasses) that Mac starts game 1. The very public support of key vets and the reported unvarnished enthusiasm for his play by teammates during practice and games gives me the impression that Mac has the team's confidence as well. BB doesn't throw away games. He might have toyed around in the 1st 4 games during Brady era, but Brady could cover a lot of sins. The margin of error is too tight now. If he judges Mac is ready - and 5 incompletions in 34 throws (on top of the arm strength and accuracy he's shown in pre-season games and camp), his ability to feel pressure and move within a closing pocket, as well as experience in the biggest college games are all positive indicators to me - I think BB's pulling that lever.

Yeah, 29 of 34 is nice, but it's drills. He and Cam have been putting up similar numbers all camp in these type of drills, I would read almost nothing into it other than he had a nice day which is better than struggling.

 

[Swedgin]

Yeah, 29 of 34 is nice, but it's drills. He and Cam have been putting up similar numbers all camp in these type of drills, I would read almost nothing into it other than he had a nice day which is better than struggling.

From the Athletic on today's joint practice with the Giants:

Patriots' Mac Jones shines in practice vs. Giants as Cam Newton remains out

"Jones opened practice by going 25 of 27 against the Giants' starting defense, including a string of 18 consecutive completions before the streak ended on a pass that was tipped at the line. He also tossed back-to-back touchdowns at one point."

 

[Cellar-Door]

From the Athletic on today's joint practice with the Giants:

Patriots' Mac Jones shines in practice vs. Giants as Cam Newton remains out

"Jones opened practice by going 25 of 27 against the Giants' starting defense, including a string of 18 consecutive completions before the streak ended on a pass that was tipped at the line. He also tossed back-to-back touchdowns at one point."

Yeah, I get it, he had a really good day. My point was.... you 100% should not take much of anything away from completion percentage in 11 v 11 and 8 v 8 drills, it's not at all like a real game. I put more stock in his strong pre-season performances than practice, and even pre-season isn't that good an indicator. Simulating real NFL play is really hard. Everything we hear for Jones is encouraging, and that's better than struggling, but Cam who everyone thinks is garbage also had really good practice days, and pre-season performances, that's just the nature of the drills/pre-season.

 

[johnmd20]

Yeah, I get it, he had a really good day. My point was.... you 100% should not take much of anything away from completion percentage in 11 v 11 and 8 v 8 drills, it's not at all like a real game. I put more stock in his strong pre-season performances than practice, and even pre-season isn't that good an indicator. Simulating real NFL play is really hard. Everything we hear for Jones is encouraging, and that's better than struggling, but Cam who everyone thinks is garbage also had really good practice days, and pre-season performances, that's just the nature of the drills/pre-season.

Well, the point if Cam is currently at home because he's not vaccinated and he's missing a week of practice. In that practice time Cam is missing, in the midst of a QB competition, his competition is lighting it up. You know Belichick is pissed Cam isn't vaxxed and is missing these days. It doesn't help him and now Mac is on fire today.

 

[Super Nomario]

The Patriots scored 21 points in that game and converted third downs at a fifty percent clip.

Converting third down at a fifty percent clip is awesome.

They ran five more plays total than the Dolphins did. The Dolphins didn't do very well vs. Cam in Week 1 because their offense was anemic and couldn't move the ball to save their life, allowing the Patriots to practically and literally run the clock out. They scored eleven points. That had far more to do with why they lost that game than anything relating to Cam and the offense.

It's both. The Pats D was great. But also the Dolphins only had three second-half drives because the Patriots offense kept moving the ball. 21 points in an average game (10-12 possessions) isn't impressive. 21 points on 8 real drives (not including the final end-of-game) is really good. And they missed opportunities that had nothing to do with Cam - a missed FG at the end of the half, and Harry fumbling through the end zone.

 

[Captaincoop]

Bedard and Curran both came out red hot today in favor of Mac starting. It's going go be a epic disappointment when Belichick hands Cam the job back tomorrow.

 

[DJnVa]

Louder so everyone can hear: EVERY SINGLE PERSON HERE UNDERSTANDS PRACTICE "STATS" ARE NOT THE SAME AS GAME REPS.

 

[Big McCorkle]

Converting third down at a fifty percent clip is awesome.

It's awesome over the course of an entire season. It's nothing special over the course of one game. It's sort of the reverse of scoring 21 points; in one game, that can be perfectly fine, while scoring 21 points per game over the course of sixteen (now seventeen) games is pretty terrible. (Although really it doesn't matter when you convert, be it on first or third down, so long as you convert. The ideal offense never converts a single third down. But this is an unimportant digression.)

It's both. The Pats D was great. But also the Dolphins only had three second-half drives because the Patriots offense kept moving the ball. 21 points in an average game (10-12 possessions) isn't impressive. 21 points on 8 real drives (not including the final end-of-game) is really good. And they missed opportunities that had nothing to do with Cam - a missed FG at the end of the half, and Harry fumbling through the end zone.

I did forget, maybe intentionally, about Harry fumbling through the endzone. And the offense in general played better than I remembered. I still think the defensive performance was significantly more impactful than the offensive, and that the Dolphins anemia enabled that clock-crunching strategy, but the offense deserves a lot more credit than I was giving it.

 

[BaseballJones]

Yeah, I get it, he had a really good day. My point was.... you 100% should not take much of anything away from completion percentage in 11 v 11 and 8 v 8 drills, it's not at all like a real game. I put more stock in his strong pre-season performances than practice, and even pre-season isn't that good an indicator. Simulating real NFL play is really hard. Everything we hear for Jones is encouraging, and that's better than struggling, but Cam who everyone thinks is garbage also had really good practice days, and pre-season performances, that's just the nature of the drills/pre-season.

But isn’t it better than Mac going 13-27 in those same drills?

 

[jacklamabe65]

I am wondering out loud if BB doesn't have the perfect excuse to have Mac start given the COVID issues surrounding Cam. Yes, I know it's Bill, but part of me thinks that he must be pissed with Cam and no vaccination.

 

[pdaj]

Week 1 was at New England last year.

Er, my bad. Thank you for that correction. Somehow, that makes me feel a little better now when thinking about this loss from last year.

It's both. The Pats D was great. But also the Dolphins only had three second-half drives because the Patriots offense kept moving the ball. 21 points in an average game (10-12 possessions) isn't impressive. 21 points on 8 real drives (not including the final end-of-game) is really good. And they missed opportunities that had nothing to do with Cam - a missed FG at the end of the half, and Harry fumbling through the end zone.

The Patriots offense had a time of possession of 34:49. That's considerable. As a Miami fan watching this game, I recall it being brutal. Tick, tock. Tick, tock. It seemed as though Miami's offense had only a handful of opportunities to get the ball.

Cam Newton was 15/19 for 155 yards. This included a couple of hard-throwing, "sling it!" type completions to Edelman down the field. I thought it was the healthiest Cam looked all season; and consequently, the best he looked throwing the football.

Historically, Flores' defense has struggled vs. athletic quarterbacks and has dominated the traditional, pocket variety. Perhaps Mac is the "outlier," but wouldn't you prefer BB face a rookie in his first NFL start over the vast majority of veterans? No one compares to Belichick, but Flores has proven to be a dang good defensive coach.

 

[Cellar-Door]

But isn’t it better than Mac going 13-27 in those same drills?

Yeah, doing well in drills is better than doing poorly. I was responding to a post citing his completions in drills as something that gave them goosebumps about Jones as an NFL QB. That's going way too far.

 

[bsan34]

I am wondering out loud if BB doesn't have the perfect excuse to have Mac start given the COVID issues surrounding Cam. Yes, I know it's Bill, but part of me thinks that he must be pissed with Cam and no vaccination.

Yup. He may not be *pissed*, but Cam’s vax status makes his availability a wild card every week. Bill doesn’t like wild cards.

 

[jacklamabe65]

Yup. He may not be *pissed*, but Cam’s vax status makes his availability a wild card every week. Bill doesn’t like wild cards.

That's what I was thinking......well said.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

Obviously, one of the bigger concerns is a scenario in which the un-vaxxed QB1 takes the starter reps ALL WEEK, then - through no fault of his own (except not getting vaccinated, obviously) - happens to be exposed to a COVID-positive person (EDIT: on, say, Saturday afternoon). A trainer, a family member, a friend. All of a sudden, a team is faced with starting a guy who got very few reps during prep-week, and at the last minute. In the Patriots's case, it maybe seems LESS bad b/c there's not a vast Ocean of difference between Cam and a still-learning rookie Mac Jones. (Yes, that's being generous b/c it's arguable that, even with all the "doesn't know what he doesn't know," Mac is actually a better fit to start, even with all things considered.) But for a lot of teams there's a GULF between those two players AND the lesser one won't have prepared all week. That's a serious competitive disadvantage and is not at all out of the realm of possibility.

 

[DourDoerr]

Yeah, doing well in drills is better than doing poorly. I was responding to a post citing his completions in drills as something that gave them goosebumps about Jones as an NFL QB. That's going way too far.

“Way too far?” And you’re the judge and jury? What bullshit. Subjectively, I like high completion %’s. I like watching QB’s with high completion %’s. Specifically I like NE QB’s with high completion %’s. In the goddamn drill - and yes we KNOW drills ain’t games - Mac hit 29 of 34. To me that’s great news. Exciting. You think meh. Great, enjoy your day. I won’t shit on it. I offered more within the post, including qualifiers, but going way too far apparently is the mortal sin. Good police work.

 

[jacklamabe65]

Chad on The Globe just now.

Twenty years after the Brady/Bledsoe situation, Jones has a chance this week to stake his own claim to the starting job in the absence of the incumbent, in part because of Newton’s lack of judgment, not on the field, but away from it. Newton had to enter COVID-19 protocol after a “misunderstanding” regarding off-site testing. He can return to practice Thursday, but his self-inflicted absence gave Jones the opportunity to take the majority of the snaps with the first-team offense.

When Belichick was asked Tuesday whether this was a great chance for Jones to show the coaches what he can do, he was blunt: “It is,” he said

 

[SMU_Sox]

We have twenty+ years of BB preaching that the guys who do well in practice get promoted or opportunities and that practice matters. We had Brady as an example of a guy who used his practice reps to show Bill he deserved a chance and he held it when he took it. Ok fine yes you can diminish practice reps but on the other hand they are important and are helping everyone including the NEP coaching staff figure out the QB puzzle.

It’s just another good data point for Mac and there have been a lot of good ones for him. White and Slater saying he’s taking command of the offense matter a lot too. Those aren’t hollow words. This is a good situation to be in when both your QBs look like they could be competent. As always it’s worth monitoring it. I personally still don’t know who I want week 1.

 

[bsan34]

After this week, I’m really not interested in the day to day uncertainty that is the QB1 being unvaccinated and liable to enter protocols at any time.

 

[RedOctober3829]

We have twenty+ years of BB preaching that the guys who do well in practice get promoted or opportunities and that practice matters. We had Brady as an example of a guy who used his practice reps to show Bill he deserved a chance and he held it when he took it. Ok fine yes you can diminish practice reps but on the other hand they are important and are helping everyone including the NEP coaching staff figure out the QB puzzle.

It’s just another good data point for Mac and there have been a lot of good ones for him. White and Slater saying he’s taking command of the offense matter a lot too. Those aren’t hollow words. This is a good situation to be in when both your QBs look like they could be competent. As always it’s worth monitoring it. I personally still don’t know who I want week 1.

Hell we saw it today with Sony getting traded. Stevenson improved from the start of came enough that Sony became expendable. It’s a meritocracy not a democracy in Foxboro.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Can we merge some of these threads as they’re all overlapping between this one, the preseason offense thread and the Mac Jones draft thread?

 

[jacklamabe65]

Bob Socci
Before Mac Jones shined in team drills today, the rookie undoubtedly earned respect from teammates after the early-practice skirmish between
@Patriots & @Giants linemen. Once the order was restored, the two groups ran a lap. Who joined the Pats’ big bodies on their run? Their QB.

 

[bankshot1]

At this point, I'm not sure what BB's rational is with seemingly preferring Cam to Mac.


-Is he unconcerned about the uncertainty of Cam's week to week availability/covid? This has to be concern and is not easily resolved.
-Does he believe there is more upside (game won) with Cam?
-Is he concerned that Mac might benefit with a mid-season starting point and he should be eased into the NFL schedule, so Cam gets the first part of the season?
-Is there a concern that there could be a locker-room revolt among vets if it appears he bails on Cam, for a rookie?

It seems BB can better control some uncertainty without a sacrifice of quality if he leans towards Mac.

 

[Cotillion]

Bob Socci
Before Mac Jones shined in team drills today, the rookie undoubtedly earned respect from teammates after the early-practice skirmish between
@Patriots & @Giants linemen. Once the order was restored, the two groups ran a lap. Who joined the Pats’ big bodies on their run? Their QB.

Rookie knows what he is doing...

 

[BigSoxFan]

Rookie knows what he is doing...

It’s basically like he’s studied Brady and is doing his best to replicate it. You never know what you’re going to get once rookies face live action against real starters but the approach, mentality, effort, etc. is all where it needs to be. Really excited about Mac.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

After this week, I’m really not interested in the day to day uncertainty that is the QB1 being unvaccinated and liable to enter protocols at any time.

I guess I'd make one small point here. All we can really deduce from the latest news and the five day restriction is that Cam is not fully vaccinated.

At least that is my understanding of the league rules. Full vaccination takes at least 5 and possibly 6 weeks from first vaccination so the fact that someone is having to comply with protocols for the unvaccinated does not mean that he necessarily is not in the process of getting fully vaccinated. It is possible that some players were still holding out but changed their mind when it became clear how serious the league was taking it with the protocols. They could still theoretically be a week or two from being fully vaccinated and being excused from daily testing.

I guess I'm just going to choose to hope that Cam recognized the benefits of getting vaccinated, for himself, for his teammates, for the public, and for the team. Maybe he got the first jab three weeks ago or something.

 

[Captaincoop]

I don't care if Cam is vaccinated or not, I don't care if he personally developed the fucking vaccine. He stinks and Mac has passed every test so far with flying colors. Everyone watching this team thinks he's better than Cam right now. Come on, Bill..take the plunge.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

At this point, I'm not sure what BB's rational is with seemingly preferring Cam to Mac.

I don't think he prefers Cam to Mac. He might decide to go with the safer choice, which would be Cam for now, for any number of reasons. But he surely sees Mac as the QB of the not too distant future already. The decision might be based on whether BB thinks Mac is physically ready to handle the rigors of an NFL season, or on whether he thinks Mac can learn from watching a few games. But I don't buy for a second that BB has made any real commitment to Cam as his starter.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I don't think he prefers Cam to Mac. He might decide to go with the safer choice, which would be Cam for now, for any number of reasons. But he surely sees Mac as the QB of the not too distant future already. The decision might be based on whether BB thinks Mac is physically ready to handle the rigors of an NFL season, or on whether he thinks Mac can learn from watching a few games. But I don't buy for a second that BB has made any real commitment to Cam as his starter.

I assume that if Cam is the starter it's because Bill thinks he gives the team a better chance to win. Which isn't a particularly bad bet, Cam was a bottom 3rd QB last year, but that's still better than most rookie QBs do, and he's looked better in pre-season than he did last year (healthier in particular) and the surrounding talent is better.

 

[radsoxfan]

Just to go with the idea Mac starts.... is Cam a good solider and dutiful backup? Or would be pout and basically check out/ask for a trade?

If Mac starts and struggles or gets hurt, are we basically down to Hoyer?

I don't know if that really enters the equation at all, but starting Cam might preserve an easier plan B, should the need arise.

 

[heavyde050]

I assume that if Cam is the starter it's because Bill thinks he gives the team a better chance to win. Which isn't a particularly bad bet, Cam was a bottom 3rd QB last year, but that's still better than most rookie QBs do, and he's looked better in pre-season than he did last year (healthier in particular) and the surrounding talent is better.

I realize it is QBR, and it is not a perfect metric, but Cam finished lower than all of the first round rookie QBs last year (that qualified for the ranking). If one would like to use ANY/A, he finished below all of the rookie QBs except for Tua (he finished one spot better)(and one spot worse than Burrow).
https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/table/passing/sort/adjQBR/dir/desc
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/passing.htm

 

[Cellar-Door]

I realize it is QBR, and it is not a perfect metric, but Cam finished lower than all of the first round rookie QBs last year (that qualified for the ranking). If one would like to use ANY/A, he finished below all of the rookie QBs except for Tua (he finished one spot better)(and one spot worse than Burrow).
https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/table/passing/sort/adjQBR/dir/desc
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/passing.htm

Yeah, but even that terrible year would have been ahead of 2 of 3 rookies in 2019, and 3 of 4 in 2018. Last year was a very good rookie class of QBs and still only one of them was significantly better than Cam's terrible year.

 

[heavyde050]

Yeah, but even that terrible year would have been ahead of 2 of 3 rookies in 2019, and 3 of 4 in 2018. Last year was a very good rookie class of QBs and still only one of them was significantly better than Cam's terrible year.

Very true on the solid rookie QB class last year (especially compared to the dumpster fire of the last few years).

 

[nattysez]

Obviously, one of the bigger concerns is a scenario in which the un-vaxxed QB1 takes the starter reps ALL WEEK, then - through no fault of his own (except not getting vaccinated, obviously) - happens to be exposed to a COVID-positive person (EDIT: on, say, Saturday afternoon). A trainer, a family member, a friend. All of a sudden, a team is faced with starting a guy who got very few reps during prep-week, and at the last minute. In the Patriots's case, it maybe seems LESS bad b/c there's not a vast Ocean of difference between Cam and a still-learning rookie Mac Jones. (Yes, that's being generous b/c it's arguable that, even with all the "doesn't know what he doesn't know," Mac is actually a better fit to start, even with all things considered.) But for a lot of teams there's a GULF between those two players AND the lesser one won't have prepared all week. That's a serious competitive disadvantage and is not at all out of the realm of possibility.

I generally agree with this, but I think BB's attitude is that the QB2's job is to be ready to replace the QB1, so the QB2 should be ready whether he's called upon before the game or during the game.

This is pretty Machiavellian, but my expectation is that Cam starts and feels like he has to sacrifice his body and run a lot in order to keep his job. He will win a few games for them with his legs early, then he'll get hurt and Mac will take over without controversy. This solves a lot of problems -- it avoids Cam sulking for getting passed over, it allows Mac to see a few games before being thrown into the fire, it allows BB not to have to really make a choice, etc. As others have already said, I figure Mac takes over Week 4 or 5.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Yeah, but even that terrible year would have been ahead of 2 of 3 rookies in 2019, and 3 of 4 in 2018. Last year was a very good rookie class of QBs and still only one of them was significantly better than Cam's terrible year.

How many rookie QBs play on a good team though?

 

[Cellar-Door]

How many rookie QBs play on a good team though?

Did Cam play on a good team last year?
And yes some rookies end up on really bad teams, but a lot of the recent QBs who didn't play well (or never made the field) were not on terrible teams (like Tua last year) just mediocre ones, but I'd argue that quite a few of them (maybe all) had better skill position talent than last year's Patriots. Though in fairness many/most did have worse lines.

I'd say if Cam is as bad as last year he'll lose the job pretty quickly to Jones who'll have a decent shot to be as good maybe better. If Cam plays better than last year that's likely a level that is tough to expect a rookie QB to exceed and he'd get a good amount of rope until the team looked like they were out of the playoff race.

Generally I think it's probably close to a toss-up now that Cam is missing time, but I can see the argument for Cam if Bill and Josh think he's shown improvement, because Rookies usually aren't very good, so if you think Cam is going to be better than he was last year, you're starting to get close to him being better than almost all recent 1st round QBs, so Jones would have to show you a lot in the rest of pre-season, or practice to move on from mediocre performance.

 

[RedOctober3829]

View: https://twitter.com/spshoot/status/1430708086008950789?s=21

 

[RedOctober3829]

Did Cam play on a good team last year?
And yes some rookies end up on really bad teams, but a lot of the recent QBs who didn't play well (or never made the field) were not on terrible teams (like Tua last year) just mediocre ones, but I'd argue that quite a few of them (maybe all) had better skill position talent than last year's Patriots. Though in fairness many/most did have worse lines.

I'd say if Cam is as bad as last year he'll lose the job pretty quickly to Jones who'll have a decent shot to be as good maybe better. If Cam plays better than last year that's likely a level that is tough to expect a rookie QB to exceed and he'd get a good amount of rope until the team looked like they were out of the playoff race.

Generally I think it's probably close to a toss-up now that Cam is missing time, but I can see the argument for Cam if Bill and Josh think he's shown improvement, because Rookies usually aren't very good, so if you think Cam is going to be better than he was last year, you're starting to get close to him being better than almost all recent 1st round QBs, so Jones would have to show you a lot in the rest of pre-season, or practice to move on from mediocre performance.

I think Mac has shown enough to start throughout camp and today just exemplified that thought.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I assume that if Cam is the starter it's because Bill thinks he gives the team a better chance to win. Which isn't a particularly bad bet, Cam was a bottom 3rd QB last year, but that's still better than most rookie QBs do, and he's looked better in pre-season than he did last year (healthier in particular) and the surrounding talent is better.

Yeah we really should dispense with the "wtf is Bill thinking?" talk. Bill isn't infallible, and one can argue with his risk profile on things occasionally (whether too risky or too conservative). But if we're learned anything from observing Bill Fucking Belichick over two decades, it's that what he's thinking is that the guy he starts at QB was the guy who was our best chance at winning. We've also learned that he's not a dumbass. Not infallible, not a dumbass. Whoever he rolls out there, it's an informed decision.

 

[DJnVa]

Two paraphrased quotes that are meaningful (mentioned on Lazar's podcast)

Josh McDaniels: "very few or no" pre-snap mistakes
Kendrick Bourne: Mac "gets them together as a team on field pre-snap, all on same page"

 

[rodderick]

Yeah we really should dispense with the "wtf is Bill thinking?" talk. Bill isn't infallible, and one can argue with his risk profile on things occasionally (whether too risky or too conservative). But if we're learned anything from observing Bill Fucking Belichick over two decades, it's that what he's thinking is that the guy he starts at QB was the guy who was our best chance at winning. We've also learned that he's not a dumbass. Not infallible, not a dumbass. Whoever he rolls out there, it's an informed decision.

Sure, but is it out of the realm of possibility that even if he feels Mac has been 5% better in camp he gives Week 1 to Cam because he thinks he has improved from last year and deserves a chance to show what he can do with a full off-season?

 

[Jimbodandy]

Sure, but is it out of the realm of possibility that even if he feels Mac has been 5% better in camp he gives Week 1 to Cam because he thinks he has improved from last year and deserves a chance to show what he can do with a full off-season?

Oh sure, if he thinks that's what's best for the team. I'm just pushing back on the idea that Bill has changed. If he starts Cam in your 5% scenario, it's because that's the best thing for the team's chances of winning a Super Bowl in his mind. That's always the answer to the question "what is he thinking?"

 

[rodderick]

Oh sure, if he thinks that's what's best for the team. I'm just pushing back on the idea that Bill has changed. If he starts Cam in your 5% scenario, it's because that's the best thing for the team's chances of winning a Super Bowl in his mind. That's always the answer to the question "what is he thinking?"

Okay, it's just that a lot of people conflate "best for the team" with "what will likely get you the best on field results" and I believe that Bill makes the vast majority of his decisions with the former on his mind, but not necessarily the latter (sitting Welker and Butler come to mind). I guess it's the difference between short term and long term interests.

 

[sodenj5]

Here’s my take on it: this season’s results are largely irrelevant in the big picture. If the Patriots leave 2021 with nothing other than knowing Mac Jones is their QB of the Future ™, then it is a success.

Also, you typically don’t want to throw a highly drafted first round QB into the fray immediately because highly drafted QBs tend to go to bad teams with either bad surrounding infrastructure or bad coaching. The Patriots have neither of those

If it’s even close to 50-50, they should go with Mac Jones because Cam Newton is absolutely not the QB of the future. That’s a fact.

Sooner or later, this will be Mac Jones’ team. He is as inevitable as Thanos. The sooner that happens, the better for him and the Patriots.