Poll: Rate Your Faith in the Red Sox Front Office

[JM3]

It takes time, but we actually are getting very close to when we should start seeing major league debuts from the earliest Bloom guys.

Mookie was drafted in 2011 and debuted in 2014.

Xander played his first minor league year in 2010 and was up with the big club in 2013.

Devers was 2014 —> 2017.

JBJ was 2011 —> 2013.

Yeah - I mean those guys are rare, & I would quibble a bit with the dates used on X & Devers as they were signed in August 2009 & August 2013 respectively. JBJ & X were 107 & 50 PAs respectively with minimal impact in their debut season, too.

Most importantly, though, the pandemic really puts a damper on fast-tracking like that. They had a 3 player draft in 2020 & there was no IFA signing period so there were very few avenues for acquisition that year, and the cancelation of the minor league season also puts a large damper on player upward mobility.

If Bloom draft picks/IFAs are ready in 2024, that would be a really good result all things considered, but '25 is probably a more realistic expectation.

The big thing Bloom has done is allow the DD guys who were floating around many years out to actually progress enough to hopefully finally provide cheap production soon.

 

[JM3]

Bloom -- like every other GM -- had multiple chances to draft Spencer Strider, but he's not on your list because he's a post-prospect. Again, other GMs also missed the boat on him, but if the Sox in 2020 had drafted Strider in the fourth round instead of Jeremy Wu-Yelland, the future would look very different now.

Yeah...31 teams failed on that one. The Mustache Man. Had a 4.76 ERA as a freshman at Clemson with 35 walks in 51 innings, then tore his UCL in 2019.

Not going to pretend to be a Wu-Yellend expert, but maybe he'll recover from his UCL this year strongly, too. Could eventually be a bullpen piece.

 

[curly2]

Yeah...31 teams failed on that one.

Did a couple of Japanese teams pass, too?

 

[8slim]

Yeah - I mean those guys are rare, & I would quibble a bit with the dates used on X & Devers as they were signed in August 2009 & August 2013 respectively. JBJ & X were 107 & 50 PAs respectively with minimal impact in their debut season, too.

Most importantly, though, the pandemic really puts a damper on fast-tracking like that. They had a 3 player draft in 2020 & there was no IFA signing period so there were very few avenues for acquisition that year, and the cancelation of the minor league season also puts a large damper on player upward mobility.

If Bloom draft picks/IFAs are ready in 2024, that would be a really good result all things considered, but '25 is probably a more realistic expectation.

The big thing Bloom has done is allow the DD guys who were floating around many years out to actually progress enough to hopefully finally provide cheap production soon.

All fair points.

 

[Apisith]

Yankees are up to $292m in payroll for next year. We’re at $191m. The CBT level isn’t acting like a hard cap anymore. If ownership is still budgeting for $230-240m in spending then it’s going to be hard to compete for the best free agents. The Dodgers have been living at $300m and the Mets are now settling in that range.

The Yankees are already at $196m for next year without taking into account arb2 and arb3 projections. If their arb2 and arb3 players don’t get a dollar in raise then they’re already sitting at $226m next year. Projecting the most conservative raises already takes them over the CBT level.

The Mets are at $349m this year and already at $236m next year without taking into account arb projections. With arb projections they’re at $260m already.

 

[JM3]

Did a couple of Japanese teams pass, too?

Clemson should have found some more pre-NIL $ for him & the Savannah Bananas missed a golden opportunity.

But yeah, oops lol

 

[jon abbey]

Yankees are up to $292m in payroll for next year. We’re at $191m. The CBT level isn’t acting like a hard cap anymore. If ownership is still budgeting for $230-240m in spending then it’s going to be hard to compete for the best free agents. The Dodgers have been living at $300m and the Mets are now settling in that range.

The Yankees are already at $196m for next year without taking into account arb2 and arb3 projections. If their arb2 and arb3 players don’t get a dollar in raise then they’re already sitting at $226m next year. Projecting the most conservative raises already takes them over the CBT level.

The Mets are at $349m this year and already at $236m next year without taking into account arb projections. With arb projections they’re at $260m already.

Both of those teams are almost certainly going to trade some veterans before the season starts and lower those numbers, but they'll be very high anyway, no argument there.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

I was very optimistic and voted 70% last Friday when the poll went up. I’m ready to change it to 40%.

 

[Seels]

I've said this multiple times: It is certainly fair to ask that question. It's fair to ask whether someone else could do the job better. I just don't see how it's reasonable for anyone to say that they have zero percent faith in Bloom.

I said 0.

• if he has a plan, it's impossible to tell what it is. Or, there's a plan, but it keeps failing
• He has two seasons where the team looked bad on paper going into it, and was bad in the season. He has a third where the team looked average on paper and over achieved.
• His farm looks ordinary outside of the obvious pick
• This team had assets when he was brought on to the job, and currently doesn't.
• Their one big free agent signing, it seemed like everyone in the world knew was a bad signing ahead of time. Now we're left with a guy making $25 a year who is on the wrong side of 30 and is like a 3-4 war player, if he's healthy.
• There is not a single player on this team that I have any confidence in being on the team in 2 years.

The old Reagan saying, are you better off today than you were 4 years ago? No. And actually, I think it's worse every year since, and I think it'll be worse next year.

I didn't care for Cherington either, but at least you could see _a_ plan.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Boras, discussing the Yoshida and Bogaerts contracts:

Bogaerts’ 11-year, $280 million deal with San Diego was worth well more than the Red Sox were willing to offer in years and money. Boras was asked if the Red Sox miscalculated the market.
“I’m not sure it’s about miscalculation. It’s about choices. You choose to pursue players like they chose to pursue (Yoshida) at levels that many other teams didn’t have him at,” Boras said. “Teams chose to pursue Xander at levels that some teams didn’t have him at. You see that in the industry.”

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/12/scott-boras-says-xander-bogaerts-valuation-didnt-fit-red-sox-current-model.html

 

[Seels]

What if the Sox' plan is to build up a developmental machine that constantly churns out really good players (and cheap!), pays very little for their ages 23-29 years, gets great value per WAR, and then lets those guys go as they hit the first couple of holes of the back nine, allowing other teams to pay huge dollars for declining production, and then just churns out another cheap, talented player? What if their plan is to always pay for players' front nines at low cost but high production and let them go as they hit the back nine at huge cost but declining production?

I would question why this same team needs to charge $30 a month to be watched while having the 2nd most expensive tickets in the sport if they're never using their financial capabilities.

 

[catomatic]

I voted 40% but if we get to 1st week of April and Devers has not been extended, I’m going to assume FSG will shortly announce they’re selling the Boston Red Sox. Seels, Philip Jeff Frye and Hank Scorpio have all offered pretty persuasive depictions of an approach that is about something other than a competitive ‘23 season.

It’s either timidity, incompetence, gaslighting the fandom about a furtive new cost/benefit approach that involves stripping the team essentially to the studs for an unstated objective. Anyway you slice it, the fans will be asked to overpay to follow a team with nary a puncher’s chance. If the dance with Devers goes similarly to the twirl with Bogaerts, I’ll be pretty convinced they’re unloading this franchise posthaste.

 

[johnnywayback]

Here's where I'm at. I think the ownership group has earned a tremendous amount of goodwill by winning four championships, and I like the direction they seemed to choose by picking Bloom to lead baseball operations. I want to be the Dodgers, and they've chosen the strategy that can get us there. I vastly prefer it to the Dombrowski approach.

Am I concerned that, with their failure to lock up any of their young stars, they're pivoting away from that, trying to limit future obligations for the purposes of selling the team? I am. But I'll feel better if and when they extend Devers and/or add some more elite talent. If they do, I'll remain confident that they have a winning strategy.

That said, it's not enough to choose the right strategy. You have to execute it correctly. And a big part of that execution is talent evaluation. It's fine to be aggressive in going after the guys you want like Dombrowski did, but you have to pick the right guys. It's even better, in my mind, to be creative in trying to find value in the exchange of talent like Bloom does, but you have to make moves that yield value.

To my mind, both Dombrowski and Bloom (so far) have done a poor job of evaluating talent. Deciding that Chris Sale was going to be the guy you bet on for the long term was a mistake. Half-assing the Bogaerts extension so that he could opt out at age 30 was a mistake. Given what we know about Mookie's situation, it's hard to say they made a mistake, per se, but the return Bloom got looks really underwhelming, as does the return he got for Benintendi. The bottom-of-the-roster churn, which, again, I think is a really important part of the job that Dombrowski neglected and Bloom correctly focuses on, has so far yielded Schrieber, Refsnyder, and not much else. A lot of the interesting and creative moves Bloom has made -- whether it's the Springs/Mazza for Hernandez deal or the buying prospects from Milwaukee -- simply haven't worked out. Failing to get under the luxury tax threshold in 2022 was inexcusable. The farm team is improving, but the early returns from that improvement -- Dalbec, Duran, etc. -- haven't been great.

I want to see more moves like the ones he's made. But at some point, the results have to be there, or you have to conclude that someone else ought to be making those moves.

I think it's entirely reasonable to give Bloom mulligans for the COVID and lockout off-seasons. But it's also entirely reasonable to judge him by how he handles this off-season. And while the jury's still out until Opening Day, I think it's entirely fair to be disappointed in the moves he's made so far, or at least skeptical. They lost an elite talent in Bogaerts, a guy I would have liked them to decide was a Their Guy. And I'm not seeing the plan for replacing him. Nor am I seeing much creativity in improving the roster outside of overpaying for a guy with huge error bars in Yoshida -- that could wind up being a great move, but you need to make a few creative moves in order to increase the chances that one or more of them work out.

Put it this way: I'm a Bloom Guy, and I'm willing to cut this frustrating, obnoxious ownership group some slack. But if they don't make some additional creative moves this off-season, and/or Yoshida flops, and/or they lose Devers for either nothing via FA or a disappointing return via trade, and/or if the 2023 team isn't competitive -- I'll be ready to get off the train.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I'm in agreement with you on a lot of things @johnnywayback, though I think I - admittedly - have a more positive view of FSG (though I get why one would consider them frustrating).

As to a lot of the "entitled" discussion going on in other threads, to be clear, I don't think the Red Sox or FSG owe me a freaking thing. They HAVE brought 400% more joy than I thought I'd ever see as a Red Sox fan, and I can't imagine anyone would disagree with that.

However, that joy and success doesn't make me love the team any less. I'm not Dan freaking Shaughnessey - winning didn't make me stop caring about the Boston Red Sox.

We're NOT the fans of the Minnesota Twins or the Oakland As or whomever else - and that's a good thing. I'm sure that like a lot of others on here, I care about the Red Sox as plenty of "normal" people do some friends and family members. I think that means there is something deeply and disturbingly psychologically wrong with me to have that much emotional connection to a baseball team, but that's different from being entitled.

So when I see "my favorite aunt / uncle" move to their 4th husband / wife and watch them tear it all down for seemingly no reason with seemingly no plan to rebound (or that plan being poorly executed) I'm upset by that. Not because I'm owed anything, but because I care - more that it's probably healthy to.

The good news is, I love my favorite uncle. I believe in him. Just like he's divorced several other wives whom have brought more to his life, if things don't start to look better in their marriage, I think he'll divorce this one whom hasn't, and he's probably going to land right back on his feet. It just stinks watching him bottom out until he rebuilds.

 

[sezwho]

Sounds like I’m the majority in that I suppose I have more faith in the process itself than the guy executing it right now. That said, there’s 100% still an opportunity to leverage the remaining $, in conjunction with prospects, to get a couple more bodies and really change my view of the offseason.

Understanding mlb prospects are unbelievably volatile assets, at this point what I really want to know is how l long it will take to achieve some quasi-steady state for this ‘prospect machine’ and what that means in annual value to the mlb club. They for certain have this answer, or think they do.

I mean the job of a Nascar driver is stomp your foot and turn left but not everyone can do it equally well. Bloom gets the year to make a winner.

Apologies for the somewhat tortured Bloom / NASCAR analogy.

 

[Max Power]

Failing to get under the luxury tax threshold in 2022 was inexcusable.

Inexcusable? Seriously? They had a decent chance at making the playoffs at the trade deadline and gave it a shot. Trading away everyone would have taken that decent shot and made it zero. The difference between a 2nd and 4th round compensation pick for Xander is negligible in increasing the chances of making the playoffs for a future team.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Sounds like I’m the majority in that I suppose I have more faith in the process itself than the guy executing it right now. That said, there’s 100% still an opportunity to leverage the remaining $, in conjunction with prospects, to get a couple more bodies and really change my view of the offseason.

Understanding mlb prospects are unbelievably volatile assets, at this point what I really want to know is how l long it will take to achieve some quasi-steady state for this ‘prospect machine’ and what that means in annual value to the mlb club. They for certain have this answer, or think they do.

I mean the job of a Nascar driver is stomp your foot and turn left but not everyone can do it equally well. Bloom gets the year to make a winner.

Apologies for the somewhat tortured Bloom / NASCAR analogy.

Exactly.

Heck, I don't even have to see us "win" this year. I think that as of today (especially in the context of the AL East) this is a bad roster - and based on what is left in the FA market, I don't think there is enough to make it a good roster - and I don't expect bad rosters to win.

But I do need to see the players and prospects Bloom has bet on start to perform and develop. Both in the majors and in the minors. Oh, and if the team is "within 2 games of the last wild card spot" around the trade deadline, actually analyze the team, what it's done, and how realistic it is to catch teams you're chasing.

If you're "there" because Story, Yoshida, Casas, Whitlock, Bello and Houck have been awesome and you want to show them you're a winning culture then move some top 20-30 prospects for pieces that would help (ie whomever we dealt for Schwarber). If you're "there" because the 'pen has been pretty good, Devers has been Devers (but he isn't extended) and "Elvis Andrus and Corey Kluber" on one year deals have been good and everything else has sucked TRADE THOSE PIECES.

*Devers should be traded before the season if he isn't extended, and to do otherwise is baseball malpractice, but I wanted to illustrate the point.

 

[chawson]

I have faith in the process and in the guy executing it right now. I think about half of the sentiment right now is grief about losing Xander (which, like most Sox events, has triggered residual feelings about Mookie leaving), a quarter of it stems from understandable frustration after a bad season, and another quarter of it is histrionic nonsense.

Bloom has made a few moves (and non-moves) that look like mistakes in hindsight. I think the non-signing of Springer, the non-trades of Benintendi (in the 19-20 offseason), Verdugo or Duran are all bad moves. It's looking like a strategic error to have not anticipated that this free agent market would be bananas, headlined by several Boras clients, HoF-caliber pitchers and a superstar/franchise icon, and with a new CBA/CBT.

In hindsight, it seems clear that if you want to keep Devers, you give him a 9/$275-300-type deal last year. OTOH, Devers' last three seasons have been marred by poor conditioning (2020, with the major asterisk of a global pandemic) followed by two consecutive seasons where nagging injuries affected his performance at the plate. Combine those issues with his defense, and it's fair to have questions about his long-term productivity — though it's not something I'm particularly worried about.

But every GM has made high-profile mistakes. Preller traded a haul for Mike Clevinger in what looked like a steal at the time, but Clevinger was a dud. His franchise-altering trades for Juan Soto and Josh Bell got him a combined .214/.353/.331 line in 438 PAs, and now Bell is gone. Cashman's big gamble on Donaldson and IKF didn't really work out.

I said 0.

• if he has a plan, it's impossible to tell what it is. Or, there's a plan, but it keeps failing
• He has two seasons where the team looked bad on paper going into it, and was bad in the season. He has a third where the team looked average on paper and over achieved.
• His farm looks ordinary outside of the obvious pick
• This team had assets when he was brought on to the job, and currently doesn't.
• Their one big free agent signing, it seemed like everyone in the world knew was a bad signing ahead of time. Now we're left with a guy making $25 a year who is on the wrong side of 30 and is like a 3-4 war player, if he's healthy.
• There is not a single player on this team that I have any confidence in being on the team in 2 years.

The old Reagan saying, are you better off today than you were 4 years ago? No. And actually, I think it's worse every year since, and I think it'll be worse next year.

I didn't care for Cherington either, but at least you could see _a_ plan.

Doesn't it seem unfair to blame Bloom for 2020? Sale, E-Rod and Benintendi each had debilitating injuries, Devers came into camp out of shape and the team staffed a stopgap manager while they waited to reinstate Cora. I think Bloom deserves credit for not panicking to make that team a .500 team when all those players went down, and we're better off for it.

I also don't understand your point that "everyone knew (Trevor Story) was a bad signing ahead of time," nor does it seem like much of a problem if he's a 3-4 WAR player making $23M per year, especially playing elite defense at a premium position.

The way I see it, Bloom has had one non-season, one great season that exceeded expectations, and one injury-riddled season with a lot of bizarre external factors (lockout, Goldilocks ball situation, evolving regulations on sticky stuff, the Steve Cohen factor) that everyone would like to forget. It's been a drag that many of our 40-45 FV prospects haven't stuck (Dalbec, Duran, Downs, Jimenez, Song, Seabold, Cordero, Groome, Rosario, Potts, Bazardo, Feltman), but there are other extremely low-cost pickups that illustrate the team's knack for talent evaluation (Schreiber, Whitlock, Crawford, Pivetta, Refsnyder, Renfroe, Wacha, Pérez, Springs). I think this offseason and season is crucial, and while I would have liked to sign Correa or grab one of the mid-range pitchers who have gone elsewhere, it's still very early.

I'm not directing this at you, Seels, but everyone is focusing their ire on Bloom, but very few people seem to recognize that there are a ton of unknowns involved here. We learned early on that there are a number of players who don't prefer to come to Boston even if the money is there. Why is that? What kinds of players is Boston unwelcoming to? We just signed an interesting player with elite plate-discipline skills during a time of historically high whiff rates and chase rates, but there's already a chorus of voices calling him overpaid and arguing that his signing is even more evidence of Bloom's incompetence. Why? What does this accomplish? I think Red Sox fans could have a little bit more awareness of how they're helping to fuel a toxic atmosphere, and helps to facilitate a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy for our GM's failure.

 

[Fishercat]

I just want to say that if we're casting doom and gloom because Chaim Bloom didn't get a fourth round pick right that every other team also didn't make at least three, often more, times, I frankly don't know how we can rationally discuss this. Spencer Strider's great, Spencer Strider is also a once in a blue moon occurrence where a fourth round pick turns into a high end MLB pitcher within two seasons. Heck, in the 2017 draft (which we are now five years out from), exactly one all-star has been produced (Rogers) and a handful will get there I'm sure, but the "notable" fourth round picks are pretty darn bleak 2016 was a good year with Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber popping in...with Bobby Dalbec between them and some pretty ugly names beyond that. Paul Dejong is probably the best 4th rounder from 2015. My way of saying that if we need to hit 4th round picks to be a success very few GMs would have a job anymore.

Just looking at 2022's best pitchers acquired via amateur draft or trade by their current team via bref WAR. Positive contributor is subjective but looking for first year with a 1+ WAR or so

Sandy Alcantara: IFA signing in 2013, debuted 2017, positive contributor 2018
Dylan Cease: Drafted 2014 (sixth round) , Debuted 2019, Positive Contributor 2021
Aaron Nola: Drafted 2014 (first round), Debuted 2015, Positive Contributor 2015
Alek Manoah: Drafted 2019 (first round), Debuted 2021, Positive Contributor 2021
Max Fried: Drafted 2012 (first round), Debuted 2017, Positive Contributor 2019
Zac Gallen: Drafted 2016 (third round), Debuted 2019, Positive Contributor 2019

Like, I don't necessarily think 8slim's characterization is too off for super top tier guys at all, especially college draftees, but HS draftees and IFAs can take a while and really only Aaron Nola and, arguably, Alek Manoah had that Strider-esque ascendacy. It's rare. Even our best guys like X and Devers were...alright for a while before really getting good. Those guys are either special or true oddities or both.

Just to add some insult to injury, old friend Martin Perez who had a great 10 year history of being mediocre to decent was just outside that list so...baseball is a weird game ya know.

 

[johnnywayback]

Inexcusable? Seriously? They had a decent chance at making the playoffs at the trade deadline and gave it a shot. Trading away everyone would have taken that decent shot and made it zero. The difference between a 2nd and 4th round compensation pick for Xander is negligible in increasing the chances of making the playoffs for a future team.

It's not a negligible difference when you factor in the money -- it could easily cost us a prospect like Roman Anthony, who's currently in our top 10.

And, more to the point, they didn't need to trade everyone. They needed to trade -- or, hell, give away -- a clearly washed JD Martinez, a move that would have made far less difference in their playoff chances than trading Vazquez. Instead, they got stuck in between and reportedly demanded to be blown away for Martinez.

 

[jon abbey]

It's not a negligible difference when you factor in the money -- it could easily cost us a prospect like Roman Anthony, who's currently in our top 10.

Also a second one if Eovaldi signs elsewhere.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It's not a negligible difference when you factor in the money -- it could easily cost us a prospect like Roman Anthony, who's currently in our top 10.

And, more to the point, they didn't need to trade everyone. They needed to trade -- or, hell, give away -- a clearly washed JD Martinez, a move that would have made far less difference in their playoff chances than trading Vazquez. Instead, they got stuck in between and reportedly demanded to be blown away for Martinez.

It would have taken more than just trading JDM to get the team under the luxury tax. According to Spotrac, they were roughly $15M over the cap at the end of the season. Trading two months of JDM would only have saved them ~$5-6M, assuming they find a team to take on his full remaining salary. Even in combination with not acquiring Pham, McGuire, or Hosmer, someone else would have had to go to get under the cap.

 

[Max Power]

It's not a negligible difference when you factor in the money -- it could easily cost us a prospect like Roman Anthony, who's currently in our top 10.

And, more to the point, they didn't need to trade everyone. They needed to trade -- or, hell, give away -- a clearly washed JD Martinez, a move that would have made far less difference in their playoff chances than trading Vazquez. Instead, they got stuck in between and reportedly demanded to be blown away for Martinez.

Is the difference in prospect value and slot money between a 2nd and 4th rounder greater than the difference between a chance to make the playoffs and a zero chance to make the playoffs when you're 2 games out? I don't know why so many people are so willing to throw away a chance to win today for a slightly greater chance to win in 4 years. Even if you do believe it was worth it, it's not "inexcusable" to have a different opinion at the time.

Trading Vazquez probably says more about what Chaim thought about Vazquez than what he thought about the team. It doesn't seem like he really ever liked him. And he was hitting over his head for the first half and due for regression. That turned out to be true. He played a grand total of 35 games for the Astros and put up a .585 OPS.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

The bottom-of-the-roster churn, which, again, I think is a really important part of the job that Dombrowski neglected and Bloom correctly focuses on, has so far yielded Schrieber, Refsnyder, and not much else.

I'm not exactly sure how you define bottom-of-the-roster churn, but shouldn't not only signing but also extending Whitlock be a pretty important yield?

 

[johnnywayback]

I'm not exactly sure how you define bottom-of-the-roster churn, but shouldn't not only signing but also extending Whitlock be a pretty important yield?

Very fair point. Although his transition into a reliable mid-rotation starter is still very much a work in progress.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

As to a lot of the "entitled" discussion going on in other threads, to be clear, I don't think the Red Sox or FSG owe me a freaking thing. They HAVE brought 400% more joy than I thought I'd ever see as a Red Sox fan, and I can't imagine anyone would disagree with that.

What's so wrong about being entitled? You pay money to watch the Red Sox, you're invested in your team, you want to watch good baseball? Why should you have to pay the highest ticket prices in the league, drink the most expensive beer and watch a shit team without being miffed about it?

Of course the Sox owe you something. When we follow a team, we expect that ownership and the Front Office is going to put forth their best effort to put a good team on the field. That's it. They don't owe us Championships; they don't even owe us the Postseason, but they do owe us some semblance of effort. Since 2020 (I'm not talking about the four Championship years, so please, I beg of you save that "THEY REPAID ME SOOOOO MUCH!!!!! I LOVE JOHN HENRY!!!!!" stuff. He's a mensch, I get it) their effort has been lackluster. They have not kept their end of the bargain.

Despite revenue going above what they were prepandemic, they've raised ticket prices. They've raised concession prices. And in conjunction with that, they've let two pillars of the club leave for practically nothing. They sign bargain basement reclamation projects for cheap dollars and are shocked, SHOCKED! when these pitchers (and they're almost always pitchers) break down mid-season. They misread the market and then have the balls to say, "This winter has been CWAZY, right?" -- that's your fucking job. My job isn't to say, "Yeah, bro. WTF are we going to do about the Padres. And Giants. And Yankees. And Mets. And Yankees. And Astros. And Rangers. And Dodgers. And Phillies."

Bloom is entering his fourth season as head of baseball ops here and there are SoSHers who still treat him like the skittish intern with a heart of gold. "Gosh, he's trying so hard! If it wasn't for injuries. And the market going nuts. And those mean old agents, who are only doing it for the money BTW, and those greedy players. And bad luck. Oh, all the bad luck!" Dude has been in baseball his entire career after graduating from Yale. He's smarter than all of us here; but he fucking sucks at his job. And it doesn't seem like ownership cares at all. When was the last time John Henry sat down for an interview (even with the newspaper he owns) and talked about the Sox?

The one thing that he's supposed to be a whiz at, developing their farm system, name me one prospect that is beating the odds and racing through the system? Just one. These players all may be good, but they're moving along at a totally normal pace. Who's the one with the highest upside right now? Who's the one that has surprised the Keith Laws and the other prospect gurus? Mayer doesn't count. By all accounts he should've been drafted one or two and he fell into our lap, which good on Bloom for drafting him, but let's not go crazy.

So yeah BPMS, don't ever apologize for being "entitled". Just because you had a five star chef for ten years making you food and all of a sudden he starts taking a dump on white bread and calling it lunch, it's okay to say that you don't like the meal.

 

[pedro1999mvp]

What's so wrong about being entitled? You pay money to watch the Red Sox, you're invested in your team, you want to watch good baseball? Why should you have to pay the highest ticket prices in the league, drink the most expensive beer and watch a shit team without being miffed about it?

Of course the Sox owe you something. When we follow a team, we expect that ownership and the Front Office is going to put forth their best effort to put a good team on the field. That's it. They don't owe us Championships; they don't even owe us the Postseason, but they do owe us some semblance of effort. Since 2020 (I'm not talking about the four Championship years, so please, I beg of you save that "THEY REPAID ME SOOOOO MUCH!!!!! I LOVE JOHN HENRY!!!!!" stuff. He's a mensch, I get it) their effort has been lackluster. They have not kept their end of the bargain.

Despite revenue going above what they were prepandemic, they've raised ticket prices. They've raised concession prices. And in conjunction with that, they've let two pillars of the club leave for practically nothing. They sign bargain basement reclamation projects for cheap dollars and are shocked, SHOCKED! when these pitchers (and they're almost always pitchers) break down mid-season. They misread the market and then have the balls to say, "This winter has been CWAZY, right?" -- that's your fucking job. My job isn't to say, "Yeah, bro. WTF are we going to do about the Padres. And Giants. And Yankees. And Mets. And Yankees. And Astros. And Rangers. And Dodgers. And Phillies."

Bloom is entering his fourth season as head of baseball ops here and there are SoSHers who still treat him like the skittish intern with a heart of gold. "Gosh, he's trying so hard! If it wasn't for injuries. And the market going nuts. And those mean old agents, who are only doing it for the money BTW, and those greedy players. And bad luck. Oh, all the bad luck!" Dude has been in baseball his entire career after graduating from Yale. He's smarter than all of us here; but he fucking sucks at his job. And it doesn't seem like ownership cares at all. When was the last time John Henry sat down for an interview (even with the newspaper he owns) and talked about the Sox?

The one thing that he's supposed to be a whiz at, developing their farm system, name me one prospect that is beating the odds and racing through the system? Just one. These players all may be good, but they're moving along at a totally normal pace. Who's the one with the highest upside right now? Who's the one that has surprised the Keith Laws and the other prospect gurus? Mayer doesn't count. By all accounts he should've been drafted one or two and he fell into our lap, which good on Bloom for drafting him, but let's not go crazy.

So yeah BPMS, don't ever apologize for being "entitled". Just because you had a five star chef for ten years making you food and all of a sudden he starts taking a dump on white bread and calling it lunch, it's okay to say that you don't like the meal.

Thank you for this post. Thanks for saying exactly what I (and probably a lot of others) was thinking. SOSH needs a like button. This post is great in every way. It's not just 1 team (Padres)...this is the market and all the teams Marzano mentioned are playing in it. We are playing with the Rays and Pirates.

 

[chawson]

The one thing that he's supposed to be a whiz at, developing their farm system, name me one prospect that is beating the odds and racing through the system? Just one.

Not trying to grapple with your larger point, but I'd say Bello, Bleis and Rafaela all fit the bill here.

In March 2021, Bello was ranked as our 23rd prospect in the SoxProspects forum. Bleis (a newly signed IFA) was ranked #41st and Rafaela (signed 7/17) was ranked #45th. A year and a half later, Bello is projected by the Steamer projection system for a 3.62 FIP in next year's rotation across 128 IP — or basically as well as Chris Bassitt pitched last year — after an extremely promising couple months in the Boston rotation.

Bleis is ranked #3 and Rafaela #4 by Sox Prospects. Bleis is #59 overall, according to Fangraphs — though he's still quite young and years away, so he may not fit the definition of "racing through the system." And nobody is overlooking Whitlock, but I'd say he also qualifies here. He's been in the conversation long enough that it's easy to forget that Sox Prospects had him as our 32nd-ranked prospect just 20 months ago.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I'd say that Bello is part of the last Front Office's prospects, but Bleis and Rafaela might fit into what I was talking about, if I squint. I don't wholeheartedly disagree with that.

 

[chawson]

I'd say that Bello is part of the last Front Office's prospects, but Bleis and Rafaela might fit into what I was talking about, if I squint. I don't wholeheartedly disagree with that.

Fair, re Bello. I think part of the Bloom FO's plan is a kind of pitching development overhaul that I imagine Bello benefited from, but I don't know any firm reporting on it and am only going from anecdotal references from interviews here and there.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I enjoyed that @John Marzano Olympic Hero, agree on the "like" button. Especially for when one doesn't have much more to add.

Though I really can't stress enough, I don't think a lot of people have a ton of problems with watching a team full of kids. I'll be honest, I'm probably lower on Casas than most (his inability to hit LHP in the high minors worries me) but in no way do I think he shouldn't be on the team and getting 550 at bats. He's a top prospect and you see what you have there.

The team next year being:

C - McGuire, 1b - Casas, 2b - Story, 3b - Baty, SS - Valdez, LF - Yoshida, CF - offer to trade Hernandez if he wants it, hope he does and play Rafaela, RF - Verdugo, DH - find someone young like a Rowdy Tellez type. SP - Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Mata and Walter - at least that would be interesting "suck" with looking to see whom could become good and potential.

Much different than C - McGuire, 1b - Casas, 2b - Story, 3b - lame duck Devers, SS - Andrus, LF - Yoshida, CF - Hernandez, RF - Verdugo, DH - Hosmer and a rotation of "Kluber, Dylan Bundy" Whitlock, Houck, Bello and whatever we get from Sale and Paxton, which would be "predictable suck while watching old players be old in Boston.

 

[Shaky Walton]

This comment could be posted in many threads and I'm putting it here only because someone refereenced "entitlement" above.

The notion that expressing the view that ownership and Bloom have made multiple errors, and have turned a team brimming with talent into one that will be lucky to be any sort of contender, and probably will not be one, is equivalent to or a sign of being entitled or spoiled, is utter bullshit.

I can only speak for myself, but I don't think other fans who are negative on Bloom and his performance are much different than me, on the whole.

I lived through near multiple heartbreaks since the 70s, was there in 2003 when Grady lost his mind, if he ever had one, and view the four titles as incredible gifts, for which I am nothing but grateful. I have been lucky enough to have had the chance to express my gratitude to members of the ownership group, front office and coaching staff, and many of the championship players over the years. My favorite memories along those lines were walking over to Millar and Lowe at Fenway during the 2013 WS and telling them that 2004 truly changed my life for the better, and seeing that they understood my sincerity, and bumping into Mike Lowell a few years later at Fenway and telling him that for me at least, 2007 was in no way the forgotten title, and that it was truly a gift.

The stories are irrelevant in and of themselves but underscore just how grateful I am for the titles and all the work that went into them. And I agree to an extent with Bill Simmons that titles result in an extended grace period. With 12 duck boat parades since February, 2002, Boston fans truly have gotten more than we could ever have expected.

But...none of that takes away from my ability to evaluate the performance of the management team now. And when I evaluate, and I give them an F for their recent performance, that doesn't mean I think I think that I am entitled to a winner or that I don't thank them for their excellence over the years. I just think the last few have sucked ass. And a lot of the fun of being a fan is thinking along with the front office and coaching staffs. Hell, many of the the threads on this amazing board are about just that.

Oddly, the same gratitude/current disappointment combo largely holds true of the Patriots and Belichick at this time. Massive appreciation for the wins and major disappointment with the decision to make Matt Patricia the de facto offensive coordinator and some of the other personnel decisions.

It's intellectually lazy and classic hot take-ism to turn current views like mine into entitlement and lack of gratitude. There's literally no link between the two ideas.

 

[pedro1999mvp]

I know it's not as simple as looking at a couple of moves in a vaccuum. But the bottom line is Bloom inherited a pre-prime Mookie, Benintendi, Bogaerts and Devers. He traded Mookie because he needed payroll flexibility and we dumped Price with him. I hated it. It was short sighted, and the return flat out sucked for a generational talent like Betts. Fast forward a few years and for those 4 players we have the following return: lame duck Devers, Wong, and Verdugo. I would have preferred to keep the players I love that came up through the system, but I also understand the business of baseball. But if you inherited those 4 guys and extended exactly 0 of them, and have basically nothing to show for the ones who have left, then you failed!!!!

And on top of that, did he replace any of them with some free agents who "reportedly" had interest in playing here that signed reasonable contracts elsewhere? No. No competitive offer to Springer, no real offer to Schwarber. I think Senga was a potentially good bargain, again we had "interest". Bloom seems really good about having interest but not willing to meet the market.

 

[54thMA]

I voted 0%, they have no plan.

Actually, they do have a plan; they really do not care.

So much for Henry panicking after a last place finish/lowest attendance in 20 years and spending like mad.

They still need a catcher, first baseman, shortstop and DH as well as a couple of starters; you cannot tell me they are seriously depending on Sale and Paxton, two guys who were useless last year.

They can't sink any further in the AL East, maybe they are shooting for worst record in the AL.

Have to give ownership credit in that they have no flies on them; they all shit on them and left.

 

[BaseballJones]

But...none of that takes away from my ability to evaluate the performance of the management team now. And when I evaluate, and I give them an F for their recent performance, that doesn't mean I think I think that I am entitled to a winner or that I don't thank them for their excellence over the years. I just think the last few have sucked ass. And a lot of the fun of being a fan is thinking along with the front office and coaching staffs. Hell, many of the the threads on this amazing board are about just that.

Let's look at the "last few" years....

2020 - the Sox sucked. But the entire world sucked. I mean, baseball was a travesty that year, but so was basically everything else in the world. I don't even really consider that to be a baseball season. We were just trying to get through a frigging pandemic that swallowed the entire globe.

2021 - the Sox went to the ALCS and came within two wins of going to the World Series. The regular season sure had it's rough patches, but they won 92 games, went to the playoffs, and nearly knocked off Houston in the league championship series. In no way can that year be called anything close to "sucking ass" unless your expectation was nearly 100 wins and a WS title.

2022 - yeah this past year wasn't very fun. They weren't good, and a ton of injuries killed them.

So.... one Covid year when we were all just trying to hang on through restrictions, masking, isolation, and a small portion of a baseball "season" that was nonsense. One really good year when they nearly went to the World Series. And one bad year filled with lots of bad play and injuries.

I don't really think that all means that the "last few years have sucked ass". But YMMV.

 

[TimScribble]

Should there be a fear that if the Red Sox meet the number that Devers requested, that he’ll turn it down because he’ll want to head to a team built to compete now?

I’ve been assuming that they’ve not been spending as much so far so they can offer Devers and still stay under the luxury threshold,

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

If Devers’ agent allows him to take the Sox offer before he hits free agency, he should be sued for malpractice.

Unless it’s banana time dollars.

$300m/10 is not banana time dollars.

 

[E5 Yaz]

If Devers’ agent allows him to take the Sox offer before he hits free agency, he should be sued for malpractice.

Unless it’s banana time dollars.

$300m/10 is not banana time dollars.

I mean, when they can't even get JD to resign with them ...

 

[Green Monster]

I voted 40% about a week ago. I mean, they gotta have a plan......right? Now I feel pretty foolish for being so optimisitic

 

[Shaky Walton]

Let's look at the "last few" years....

2020 - the Sox sucked. But the entire world sucked. I mean, baseball was a travesty that year, but so was basically everything else in the world. I don't even really consider that to be a baseball season. We were just trying to get through a frigging pandemic that swallowed the entire globe.

2021 - the Sox went to the ALCS and came within two wins of going to the World Series. The regular season sure had it's rough patches, but they won 92 games, went to the playoffs, and nearly knocked off Houston in the league championship series. In no way can that year be called anything close to "sucking ass" unless your expectation was nearly 100 wins and a WS title.

2022 - yeah this past year wasn't very fun. They weren't good, and a ton of injuries killed them.

So.... one Covid year when we were all just trying to hang on through restrictions, masking, isolation, and a small portion of a baseball "season" that was nonsense. One really good year when they nearly went to the World Series. And one bad year filled with lots of bad play and injuries.

I don't really think that all means that the "last few years have sucked ass". But YMMV.

So they did play games, keep standings and conduct the playoffs in 2020. Yes, the situation was whacked, but I don't give the Sox a total free pass because of that. If you were a Dodgers fan, I think you would be claiming that WS Championship with pride. You might even buy a T Shirt or two.

2021 was great, of course, but in context it was an outlier. Sadly.

And most importantly, I include this off season from hell when I say that the last few years have sucked. And the last off season from hell. The amount of bad decisions the FO has made over the last two off seasons (this one sadly continues) has sucked the hairiest ass possible, and set this team back for years.

I remember hearing about the Renfro trade and saying "why would they do that?" I still don't have an answer.

Could they have fucked up the Bogaerts situation more?

For those who give Bloom the benefit of the doubt, and point to having better players in the minors as one of the reasons, doesn't Bloom's REACTION to the Xander signing disturb you?

I mean, yeah, if the plan was to offer him what you considered to be the value and let him go if he got more, then that's an approach. When he doesn't sign with you, the next step is to move on.

And I get that it's still a human business, and losing a player like that is tough. But for Chaim Bloom to essentially lose his shit and not be able to speak to reporters suggests to me that he was not prepared for the FUCKING OBVIOUS result of offering the player substantially less than other teams were. There is no good answer to that. If Bloom was surprised at what other teams offered, he sucks at his job.

The whole thing is indicative of a man who is clueless.

I mean...really, look at what he started with and what he has now. Many people have posted or tweeted it. I don't think I have ever seen a solid core turned into mediocrity this fast in my sports fan life. Shades of Matt Ryan with a lead.

Last rant: It's nice to build the system. An admirable goal. But (a) many can't miss minor league players do miss and (b) it can't come at the TOTAL EXPENSE of the major league team.

 

[BaseballJones]

It’s not the GOAL to build the system. It’s a means to an end, which is to be a perennial excellent team. The way to sustained excellence is by having a fantastic farm system. That’s what Chaim is attempting to build. But not to say hey look at our awesome farm system; rather, to produce consistent homegrown (cheap) talent to fuel the major league club.

And sure I guess I’d celebrate 2020 if I was the Dodgers. But yeah to me that was a nothing season. I don’t even count it.

 

[Shaky Walton]

If Devers’ agent allows him to take the Sox offer before he hits free agency, he should be sued for malpractice.

Unless it’s banana time dollars.

$300m/10 is not banana time dollars.

Why would Devers sign on to a total rebuild? Why would he sign with a team that let every single one of his fellow core members go?

If I were in his shoes, I would only sign with Boston if they did something totally insane. The offer would have to be at least 50% higher than what other teams were offering. Maybe more.

The Red Sox have sent the message that they are willing to tear the whole thing down in the name of fiscal responsibility and improving the minors, and have hired a guy who can't or wont sign anyone unless he thinks he's getting a steal. I used to think that Theo suffered a little bit from Smartest Guy in the Room Syndrome but Chaim Bloom makes Theo look like he was skipping through the job without a financial care in the world. And true, Theo did some dumb deals at the end and then blamed ownership for his mistakes, but that's another story.

The point is that I don't think there is ANY chance that Devers will sign in Boston until he tests the market, and even then, if he cares at all about winning, he will not. Honestly, while I hope Devers signs tomorrow, I will lose respect for him if he does.

I cannot remember feeling more let down and less confident in a Boston management/ownership team. That's a very high (or better, low) bar. After all, Chuck Fairbanks quit ahead of the playoffs in 1978. Parcells flirted with the Jets before a SB. But both of those were coaches fucking over their teams. The owners played a role there, undoubtedly. So both go into the crappy mix. But this one feels more systemic. I don't buy that this is Chaim Bloom doing his thing while the owners suffer it, as Speiers suggested. I mean, he's closer to the situation than we are, but it's hard for me to believe that Bloom is not acting totally in concert with Henry and Werner.

Just like I am stunned that I could feel this way after this ownership group amazingly brought us FOUR titles, I am stunned that I could feel this way after being so optimistic after Bloom was bought on board. And now I feel foolish for that optimism. What was it based on?

PS: I read your post. Mine is not intended as an argument with yours. I am building on yours. I think that was obvious but I didn't want you or anyone to scratch their heads over that.

 

[Shaky Walton]

It’s not the GOAL to build the system. It’s a means to an end, which is to be a perennial excellent team. The way to sustained excellence is by having a fantastic farm system. That’s what Chaim is attempting to build. But not to say hey look at our awesome farm system; rather, to produce consistent homegrown (cheap) talent to fuel the major league club.

And sure I guess I’d celebrate 2020 if I was the Dodgers. But yeah to me that was a nothing season. I don’t even count it.

However you slice it, the fact remains that converting prospects into useful or star players is anything but a sure thing. And while it's not a fact, I think it's highly likely that the 2023 Red Sox will be a last place team, and would be in most any division. The talent dearth now is incredible. He HAS improved the pen. But the starting line-up looks putrid and the rotation is full of hope certificates.

As to the Dodgers, the point isn't so much who would count it. It's that I don't think it's fair to totally ignore it when you look at the job that Bloom has done. Discount it if you will. But it's part of the landscape. The Mookie trade, and the insufficient return, were not a result of the virus.

 

[BaseballJones]

Well as I said in response to someone else, every conceivable method of achieving sustained excellence is difficult to pull off. But the way that the Dodgers and Astros and Braves and even the Yankees have pulled it off is with a pipeline of excellent young talent that has come up through the farm system. Of course they supplement it with expensive guys here and there too. The Sox, of course, DO have some expensive guys. It’s just that they’re not the “right” expensive guys (i.e., Chris Sale). So deciding on whom to spend huge dollars is going to be key as well. And you’ll note that I think Devers is that kind of guy they should break the bank for.

 

[astrozombie]

I have a few reads on the "Bloom reacts to X" signing:
1. He was legitimately perplexed because he has no idea how FA works. He should be fired.
2. He needed a moment to compose himself before admitting to a large number of Sox fans that he messed up. He should be fired.
3. The reaction was acted pearl-clutching to somehow broadcast that FA is insane and people have lost their minds and Bloom can't possibly believe what the market is valuing people at. Once again, this should get him fired.

But hey, in 3 years if you can turn workman into pivetta and draft Mayer 4th overall when he falls to you, I guess it's all worth it.
I just saw JD signed with the dodgers and I don't blame him. If I was a player I would want to stay as far away from this clown show as possible.

 

[simplicio]

Look, I know we've collectively abandoned previous standards of quality posting here, in the wake the grievous national tragedy that is Bogaerts going to San Diego, but how many posts do we need projecting our hatred of the front office onto players and their decisions to sign here or elsewhere? None of us know what any of them are thinking. Full stop.

 

[astrozombie]

It’s not the GOAL to build the system. It’s a means to an end, which is to be a perennial excellent team. The way to sustained excellence is by having a fantastic farm system. That’s what Chaim is attempting to build.

"Attempting to build" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. A lot of people (myself included) think that building the farm is a great idea, but Bloom has demonstrated repeatedly that he is not the person to do it. What makes it even more disappointing is that this was supposed to be his strength. You mention the Dodgers/Astros/Yankees as having a pipeline and you are right (though I would argue that the Yankees are better at hyping their talent than producing it these days) - but they actually executed on their plan. Bloom can't execute it and seems to have no idea how to do it, which is a problem.

 

[Shaky Walton]

Look, I know we've collectively abandoned previous standards of quality posting here, in the wake the grievous national tragedy that is Bogaerts going to San Diego, but how many posts do we need projecting our hatred of the front office onto players and their decisions to sign here or elsewhere? None of us know what any of them are thinking. Full stop.

It's December. We're smack dab in the middle of the off season and free agency. The Red Sox 2023, as of now, team looks wildly inadequate. It's unclear to me how the Sox could possibly address their many holes through the remaining free agents and trades. We were told that this was going to be a big off season and that they were going to improve the team.

I'm sorry if reading negativity about the front office bothers you or makes you think that my posts or the posts of others who are along the same lines of mine are somehow not up to the quality of SoSH of yesteryear. But I think stating, in the wake of the current situation, my opinion of Bloom and the front office is fair game under the circumstances. That others have previously said similar things is what it is. I mean, we could only allow upbeat posts or shut down all evaluation of the front office, as an alternative.

 

[BaseballJones]

Under Bloom the farm system has gone from one of the worst in baseball to a top half system.

2019: 30th
https://www.milb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-overall-30-21-304615150

2023: 9th
https://www.prospects1500.com/milb/2022-mlb-farm-system-rankings/

I don’t know that they’re really 9th (who knows?) but basically every site has the Sox at least top 15. That’s a dramatic improvement from when Chaim took the job.

To say he has “demonstrated repeatedly that he is not the person” to create the excellent farm system seems quite premature given the progress already made.

 

[simplicio]

A lot of people (myself included) think that building the farm is a great idea, but Bloom has demonstrated repeatedly that he is not the person to do it.

Guess all those publications that have noted how the strength of the farm under Bloom has improved are wrong, because you said so? If those prospects all eventually fail, then sure, he did it wrong, but we aren't even in the window for them to graduate yet.