Possible Rift Between Brady and the Patriots Coaches

ifmanis5

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It's old ground but one thing is right in that report...
 
the residue of shaky personnel decisions, including the undeniable fact that since 2002, the Patriots have used 11 draft picks on wide receivers and only two -- Deion Branch and Julian Edelman -- have made any impact.
 
Brady has every right to be frustrated by this epic fail of picking WRs. Imagine Peyton Manning in this situation? He'd never shut up about it until everybody involved was publicly thrown under every bus he could find.
 

Ed Hillel

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I'm not really sure the unhappiness goes much beyond the losing, but if he has regressed, and Jimmy is catching up to him in practice, then maybe this is it. If they have to move on, they have to move on. Since Brady seems to have such a difficult time acclimating to new talent around him in recent years, I'm not sure how he'd fare in an entirely new system, but it could be really sad to watch. I still don't think it will happen, but if they keep losing and Brady actually is regressing, Bill won't hesitate.

Brady has every right to be frustrated by this epic fail of picking WRs. Imagine Peyton Manning in this situation? He'd never shut up about it until everybody involved was publicly thrown under every bus he could find.
Manning may have also given them more time and worked harder to get them acclimated into the offense.
 

riboflav

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Ed Hillel said:
I'm not really sure the unhappiness goes much beyond the losing, but if he has regressed, and Jimmy is catching up to him in practice, then maybe this is it. If they have to move on, they have to move on. Since Brady seems to have such a difficult time acclimating to new talent around him in recent years, I'm not sure how he'd fare in an entirely new system, but it could be really sad to watch. I still don't think it will happen, but if they keep losing and Brady actually is regressing, Bill won't hesitate.


Manning may have also given them more time and worked harder to get them acclimated into the offense.
 
Are you suggesting Brady is not working hard enough? You wouldn't be the first to make this claim.
 

E5 Yaz

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The national media has been waiting so long for the decline of the Patriots that they've decided to take matters into their own hands. Same stuff on ESPN this morning.
 
This is not to say that this Patriots team isn't of the quality of past years, but let's wait until the bye week to see how "bad" they are
 

lexrageorge

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The articles linked into the article are even worse.  
 
First, there is the article about Brady being traded, which completely ignores the $18.5M extra cap hit the Pats would endure if they traded him this season (and that figure is not crap).  It then goes onto to note that Kraft would have to make an escrow payment of $24M once Brady's salaries in 2015-17 become guaranteed; count me as one of those that believe that money is a complete non-factor as it's been long planned into the team's budgeting.  
 
Then there is the tired story of Tommy Kelly.  
 
Now that the credibility of the source has been established, we can move on to the article itself, in which there's nothing but speculation.  The only "story" is that Brady may be less involved in the "gameplans, personnel packages, formations, pre-snap adjustments".  And the fact that the team drafted Garropolo.  
 
I tend to think we're a long, long way from Brady being benched, cut, or traded this season.  
 

Ed Hillel

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riboflav said:
Are you suggesting Brady is not working hard enough? You wouldn't be the first to make this claim.
No, but I think whatever first impression he gets of someone tends to stick in his mind.
 

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This offense was third in the league in scoring last year. One major subtraction happened: Mankins. Lafell seems to be OK. The lack of production is shocking and I think all coaches and players share the blame.
 

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Mystic Merlin said:
Like pretty much every other person.
I will put it this way. When Brady says he doesn't even look at receivers he doesn't trust, I think that's a bad mindset for a quarterback. If someone is out on the field, you have to trust them and read through the progressions.

This offense was third in the league in scoring last year. One major subtraction happened: Mankins. Lafell seems to be OK. The lack of production is shocking and I think all coaches and players share the blame.
This is exactly right. Everyone talking about lack of weapons ignores that the offense became quite effective last year. The biggest loss has to be Scar, right? Well, that and Brady's downfield accuracy.
 

bowiac

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ShaneTrot said:
This offense was third in the league in scoring last year. One major subtraction happened: Mankins. Lafell seems to be OK. The lack of production is shocking and I think all coaches and players share the blame.
It was 3rd in the league last year (2nd if you adjust for schedule), but about 10 PPG worse than the Broncos. They used to be the team way ahead of the pack offensively, while last year they fell back to being just another good offensive team.
 

E5 Yaz

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Mystic Merlin said:
 
Like pretty much every other person.
 
But most every other person has a larger number of people to deal with. When a QB thinks this about a finite number of receiving targets, that's a problem
 

riboflav

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Ed Hillel said:
I will put it this way. When Brady says he doesn't even look at receivers he doesn't trust, I think that's a bad mindset for a quarterback. If someone is out on the field, you have to trust them and read through the progressions.


This is exactly right. Everyone talking about lack of weapons ignores that the offense became quite effective last year. The biggest loss has to be Scar, right? Well, that and Brady's downfield accuracy.
 
Not to mention the defense knows this as well.
 

Mystic Merlin

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E5 Yaz said:
 
But most every other person has a larger number of people to deal with. When a QB thinks this about a finite number of receiving targets, that's a problem
 
I was being flippant, yes.
 
In all seriousness, I agree that the New England offense is not a hospitable place for many players.  If you don't hit the ground running, you're likely to be buried.  That has to fall on Tom and the coaches; not every guy will be Deion Branch or Wes Welker, but you need to demonstrate some faith in the guys you've identified and put on this team if you're going to have a good, deep offense.  Bill says all of the time that they have faith in every player who suits up.  There's a disconnect between that statement and the way they use the receivers.  Whether it's between Tom and Bill or Tom/Bill and the non-Edelman receivers, or some combination thereof, it's hard to say.
 

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ShaneTrot said:
This offense was third in the league in scoring last year. One major subtraction happened: Mankins. Lafell seems to be OK. The lack of production is shocking and I think all coaches and players share the blame.
 
I consider last season was one of Brady's best for that reason. What he was able to do with that group of receivers as the season progressed was nothing short of remarkable. 
 

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ifmanis5 said:
It's old ground but one thing is right in that report...
 

 
Brady has every right to be frustrated by this epic fail of picking WRs. Imagine Peyton Manning in this situation? He'd never shut up about it until everybody involved was publicly thrown under every bus he could find.
I can think of at least two other times they used picks on wide receivers that worked out in addition to a couple other times they used picks on guys who, while not splitting wide, turned out to be pretty good receivers as well.
 

HomeRunBaker

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We all must be prepared for this to be both Brady and Gronk's final season as Patriots. All we need to know about what the future holds is to recognize what has occurred in the past. It's The Patriot Way......love it or hate it.
 

Jettisoned

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No, you're wrong.  Cutting Brady isn't realistic from a salary cap perspective until after the 2016 season, and trading him isn't realistic until after the 2015 season.  Unless he retires, he's here at least until the end of next season.
 
Cutting Brady and Gronk after this season would add ~$48 million to their cap figure.  There's no way it's going to happen.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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What made Brady remarkable was his ability to make a good decision and a throw as fast as anyone after the snap. So BB could go out and get linemen who specialized in run blocking. All it took was quick, intelligent receivers who made the right first read. If Brady and the receiver read the defense the same way, it's hard to defend.

What I'm seeing this year is that Brady is slower getting the ball out. And his deeper throws lack accuracy. He's aging. Not everyone is Peyton Manning, and history shows 37 is about where most quarterbacks experience a sudden drop. Joe Montana was 36 when he was traded to Kansas City.
 

Toe Nash

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No, you're wrong.  Cutting Brady isn't realistic from a salary cap perspective until after the 2016 season, and trading him isn't realistic until after the 2015 season.  Unless he retires, he's here at least until the end of next season.
 
Cutting Brady and Gronk after this season would add ~$48 million to their cap figure.  There's no way it's going to happen.
If they trade him after June 1 2015 they gain cap space.
 
https://twitter.com/patscap/status/518796682797252608
 
It may not be a lot of space but if you consider it a sunk cost and have chosen to go with JG at that point a trade could make sense depending on the return. Of course, you'd need another backup.
 
This is still incredibly premature until you see what he can do with reasonably good protection (which he hasn't had yet this year).
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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Jettisoned said:
No, you're wrong.  Cutting Brady isn't realistic from a salary cap perspective until after the 2016 season, and trading him isn't realistic until after the 2015 season.  Unless he retires, he's here at least until the end of next season.
 
Cutting Brady and Gronk after this season would add ~$48 million to their cap figure.  There's no way it's going to happen.
 

For Brady, a cut or trade would add $18m in dead cap money next year, minus his $7m salary and $6m assigned cap. So a net cap effect of $5m. For Gronk, a cut or trade would add $13.3m in dead cap money next year, minus his $4.75m salary and $3.65m assigned cap, plus a $250k workout bonus. So a net cap effect of $4.65m.

If they got rid of both, it would add $9.65m to what they already are spending. It would also mean $20.65m more cap room in 2016.

And, as Toe Nash said, if the trade takes place after June 1, half of the dead cap space assigned to future signing bonuses gets moved to 2016.
 

E5 Yaz

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Chemistry Schmemistry said:
  

For Brady, a cut or trade would add $18m in dead cap money next year, minus his $7m salary and $6m assigned cap. So a net cap effect of $5m. For Gronk, a cut or trade would add $13.3m in dead cap money next year, minus his $4.75m salary and $3.65m assigned cap, plus a $250k workout bonus. So a net cap effect of $4.65m.

If they got rid of both, it would add $9.65m to what they already are spending. It would also mean $20.65m more cap room in 2016.

And, as Toe Nash said, if the trade takes place after June 1, half of the dead cap space assigned to future signing bonuses gets moved to 2016.
 
Then, unless this season turns out better than many are expecting, the time to do it would be next June. Absorb the shock and plow ahead. Unknown developments excepted, of course
 

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HomeRunBaker said:
We all must be prepared for this to be both Brady and Gronk's final season as Patriots. All we need to know about what the future holds is to recognize what has occurred in the past. It's The Patriot Way......love it or hate it.
 
I'll take this bet. $100 to the Jimmy Fund for me if they are both gone. $100 for you if one of the two are here.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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E5 Yaz said:
 
Then, unless this season turns out better than many are expecting, the time to do it would be next June. Absorb the shock and plow ahead. Unknown developments excepted, of course
 

Because the draft is in May, it's tricky. Teams want these things settled in April. If Brady is to get his wish to play 3-4 more years (I really doubt that's possible), it's better for him with the earlier trade when a team can make its plans around him. Which means that team will spend more money. After the draft, if he's only to be a mentor, his salary is too high. So he'd be limited to trades to desperate teams. There's always one or two, but it's not a great situation. And if he continues to play like he's in severe decline, that's a difficult sell for a GM or a coach. I don't think the Favre model works for Brady. And the Favre model is unique in NFL history anyway.
 

HomeRunBaker

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DannyHeep said:
 
I'll take this bet. $100 to the Jimmy Fund for me if they are both gone. $100 for you if one of the two are here.
I would but I'm already fully invested in Hernandez not going down on Murder1 for Lloyd, Rondo not being a Celtic next year, Rondo not retuning more than a mid-first rounder and salary fodder, and Magic Johnson living happily ever after into his 70's.

Otherwise I would. We continue to clear cap space imo for the purpose of getting out of Gronk and Brady's guarantee money. The financial aspect in this case far outweighs using cap space that is being prepared to be opened up.

Edit: Now if Gronk agrees to restructure his contract all bets are off. No idea what his mindset is on this however.
 

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CaptainLaddie said:
Wait, wait, wait.... why are we talking about Gronk being moved?  What the fuck is that shit?
Yup, cut Gronk and then Belichick will trade himself for 2 1sts, 3 2nds, and 12 7ths.
 

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CaptainLaddie said:
Wait, wait, wait.... why are we talking about Gronk being moved?  What the fuck is that shit?
 
HRB is on record saying Hernandez won't go to jail in the Lloyd murder.  Now he is saying both Brady and Gronk will be gone before next season.  
 
Just let that sink in and then, well, move on.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Dogman2 said:
 
HRB is on record saying Hernandez won't go to jail in the Lloyd murder.  Now he is saying both Brady and Gronk will be gone before next season.  
 
Just let that sink in and then, well, move on.
You're still not over Law, Seymour, Welker, Mankins, etc are you? People should know by now what "The Patriot Way" stands for......for not paying absurd amounts of money for the downside years.
 

soxfan121

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I think it's time for our tiny Korean sheriff. 
 
He's pretty busy today, but good call. 
 
Let's try to keep this on the topic of Brady and a possible rift with coaches. Thanks.
 

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HomeRunBaker said:
You're still not over Law, Seymour, Welker, Mankins, etc are you? People should know by now what "The Patriot Way" stands for......for not paying absurd amounts of money for the downside years.
 
Cutting Brady doesn't result in not paying absurd amounts of money for the downside years. That's sorta a big part of this issue.
 
Of course, the remaining years get guaranteed for skill if he's on the roster at the end of this season. Perhaps something to think about if one takes his being cut soon seriously.
 

Tony C

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ShaneTrot said:
This offense was third in the league in scoring last year. One major subtraction happened: Mankins. Lafell seems to be OK. The lack of production is shocking and I think all coaches and players share the blame.
 
This seems to be the essence of the matter.
 

j44thor

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Tony C said:
 
This seems to be the essence of the matter.
 
Lets not forget that Blount was a huge part of this offense last year.  The 1-2 punch of Blount/Ridley brought a power rushing attack this team hadn't seen since Corey Dillon was here.  I don't think Blount would have repeated his success this year but it is indisputable that he was a key member of the offense last year that isn't here.
 

Tony C

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j44thor said:
 
Lets not forget that Blount was a huge part of this offense last year.  The 1-2 punch of Blount/Ridley brought a power rushing attack this team hadn't seen since Corey Dillon was here.  I don't think Blount would have repeated his success this year but it is indisputable that he was a key member of the offense last year that isn't here.
 
That's a good point. The flip is that Gronk and Vereen missed so much time last year...particularly up to this  point in the season. I think the basic point that the talent level seems overall about the same holds, and the issue seems to be decline...be it in Brady, in the OL (or its coaching?), and while Gronk is better than no Gronk, this year's Gronk does seem inferior to the Gronk we had for at least a few games last season.
 

crystalline

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Chemistry Schmemistry said:
   

Because the draft is in May, it's tricky. Teams want these things settled in April. If Brady is to get his wish to play 3-4 more years (I really doubt that's possible), it's better for him with the earlier trade when a team can make its plans around him. Which means that team will spend more money. After the draft, if he's only to be a mentor, his salary is too high. So he'd be limited to trades to desperate teams. There's always one or two, but it's not a great situation. And if he continues to play like he's in severe decline, that's a difficult sell for a GM or a coach. I don't think the Favre model works for Brady. And the Favre model is unique in NFL history anyway.
 
I think Brady's not a big problem with this offense.  He's always been conservative with the ball, and a shaky offensive line will make any pocket passer look bad due to worrying about breakdown even on the plays protection is good.  I think he starts for the next 4 years (I'm not above a little self-quoting in the future).  The main path in which Brady's not the starter here in 2017 is one which Belichick trades him for value to another team that's got a good O line and a stable offensive system.  
Ridicule me if you like but I don't think Brady's dropping off in important ways, I think it's mainly protection and reliable route-running and pass-catching.
 

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I try not to post with much emotion, but 3 days of the Great American Beer Fest and a 4 hour ride home drinking IPAs and whiskey has led me to this....
 
Does anyone really think Brady has never gotten into it with coaches? Anyone that is as passionate as him and wants to win all the time will butt heads with their coaches multiple time in a season, hell a week.  This is and should be a non story.  I find it absurd that ESPN felt the need to run this story.  This is only going to make BB pressers even greater when he now decides to answer every question for the rest of the year with either a yes or no to punish them.  This story does nothing but create unneeded controversy around the team....
 
....and breath, where is my whiskey?
 

crystalline

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Tony C said:
 
That's a good point. The flip is that Gronk and Vereen missed so much time last year...particularly up to this  point in the season. I think the basic point that the talent level seems overall about the same holds, and the issue seems to be decline...be it in Brady, in the OL (or its coaching?), and while Gronk is better than no Gronk, this year's Gronk does seem inferior to the Gronk we had for at least a few games last season.
 
On what's different this year, let me speculate a bit:
 
Belichick with Brady has always emphasized consistency because that's Brady's strength.  They have often used the short-passing offense to replace the running game and have been willing to take 10 short plays per drive to get in the end zone.  This is what they believe other teams can't do: the bend-but-don't-break philosophy in part means they believe other teams can't effectively string 10 plays together per drive.  And it's an extension of their no-turnover philosophy. 
 
To run that kind of ultra-consistent offense you need to limit mistakes, both drops and making the wrong route choice on an option based on what the defense is giving.   The Pats historically have kept WRs with great hands: Troy Brown, Kevin Faulk, Branch, Gronkowski, Moss (better before the Patriots but still made consistent catches).    Hernandez dropped some balls but was a physical specimen that made the offense better anyway.   And last year the wheels seemed to fall off.  Dobson, Thompkins, Vereen and Boyce are all dropping disasters.  Occasionally they made a play but the offense never looked great when the team was counting on them because the 10-completion drives never really worked.  Amendola had that one game where he was a beast and caught what seemed like 98 balls at shoestring height in two drives to win the game.  Edelman's got that consistency too.  But last year's offense always seemed shaky when I watched (for this reason I believe) and they pivoted to emphasize the run near the end of the season.  This year it seems like Gronk has dropped a few bad balls too, though I've only seen 50% of the games.
 
At this point they've got a bunch of receivers who (1) can't stretch the field (2) don't seem to know the right routes and (3) can't be trusted to catch the ball at a high enough rate to make a Brady offense work.  I don't know what happened with their previous high standards for steady hands on WRs, but I'm not sure there's a way to fix those guys.  I wonder if we'll see a major offense overhaul.
 

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crystalline said:
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]On what's different this year, let me speculate a bit:[/SIZE]
 
Belichick with Brady has always emphasized consistency because that's Brady's strength.  They have often used the short-passing offense to replace the running game and have been willing to take 10 short plays per drive to get in the end zone.  This is what they believe other teams can't do: the bend-but-don't-break philosophy in part means they believe other teams can't effectively string 10 plays together per drive.  And it's an extension of their no-turnover philosophy. 
 
To run that kind of ultra-consistent offense you need to limit mistakes, both drops and making the wrong route choice on an option based on what the defense is giving.   The Pats historically have kept WRs with great hands: Troy Brown, Kevin Faulk, Branch, Gronkowski, Moss (better before the Patriots but still made consistent catches).    Hernandez dropped some balls but was a physical specimen that made the offense better anyway.   And last year the wheels seemed to fall off.  Dobson, Thompkins, Vereen and Boyce are all dropping disasters.  Occasionally they made a play but the offense never looked great when the team was counting on them because the 10-completion drives never really worked.  Amendola had that one game where he was a beast and caught what seemed like 98 balls at shoestring height in two drives to win the game.  Edelman's got that consistency too.  But last year's offense always seemed shaky when I watched (for this reason I believe) and they pivoted to emphasize the run near the end of the season.  This year it seems like Gronk has dropped a few bad balls too, though I've only seen 50% of the games.
 
At this point they've got a bunch of receivers who (1) can't stretch the field (2) don't seem to know the right routes and (3) can't be trusted to catch the ball at a high enough rate to make a Brady offense work.  I don't know what happened with their previous high standards for steady hands on WRs, but I'm not sure there's a way to fix those guys.  I wonder if we'll see a major offense overhaul.
 
I think there's something to this idea, though obviously when they've had both the consistent move-the-chains attack and some ability to get big plays, that's been the best combination. In addition to the receiver issues, two other things have submarined the offense: 1) the offensive line, as sacks, pressure before routes can develop, and crappy running hurt a small chunks O, 2) offensive penalties are major negative plays and that was a problem, especially in the first two weeks.
 
I also think it's harder to run this sort of offense in 2014. In the early part of the 2000's, you had a bunch of teams running Cover 2 and Cover 3 zone defenses; you can dink-and-dunk all the way down field on a zone D, especially if you have good run-after-catch players and a quarterback accurate enough to hit them in stride. But the league has shifted to more man defense (or zone defenses using man concepts, like Seattle's), and it's really hard to go 8-of-9 passing on a drive against man defense. You need receivers who can win one-on-one matchups, receivers who can make contested catches, the ability to generate chunk plays, and preferably a quarterback who can extend plays with his legs and throw the deep ball. The Pats don't have any of this. That's not to say their scheme is dead - they led the NFL in scoring just two years ago - but I do think it is harder to score this way than it used to be.
 

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crystalline said:
 
 
On what's different this year, let me speculate a bit:
 
Belichick with Brady has always emphasized consistency because that's Brady's strength.  They have often used the short-passing offense to replace the running game and have been willing to take 10 short plays per drive to get in the end zone.  This is what they believe other teams can't do: the bend-but-don't-break philosophy in part means they believe other teams can't effectively string 10 plays together per drive.  And it's an extension of their no-turnover philosophy. 
 
To run that kind of ultra-consistent offense you need to limit mistakes, both drops and making the wrong route choice on an option based on what the defense is giving.   The Pats historically have kept WRs with great hands: Troy Brown, Kevin Faulk, Branch, Gronkowski, Moss (better before the Patriots but still made consistent catches).    Hernandez dropped some balls but was a physical specimen that made the offense better anyway.   And last year the wheels seemed to fall off.  Dobson, Thompkins, Vereen and Boyce are all dropping disasters.  Occasionally they made a play but the offense never looked great when the team was counting on them because the 10-completion drives never really worked.  Amendola had that one game where he was a beast and caught what seemed like 98 balls at shoestring height in two drives to win the game.  Edelman's got that consistency too.  But last year's offense always seemed shaky when I watched (for this reason I believe) and they pivoted to emphasize the run near the end of the season.  This year it seems like Gronk has dropped a few bad balls too, though I've only seen 50% of the games.
 
At this point they've got a bunch of receivers who (1) can't stretch the field (2) don't seem to know the right routes and (3) can't be trusted to catch the ball at a high enough rate to make a Brady offense work.  I don't know what happened with their previous high standards for steady hands on WRs, but I'm not sure there's a way to fix those guys.  I wonder if we'll see a major offense overhaul.
 
I don't know that 2 and 3 are correct. Do you have anything to back that up?
The Patriots have nobody high on the passes dropped and drop rate charts. Meanwhile according to ESPN Brady leads the league in off target passes (over or under thrown). Now some of that could be routes and communication, and some of it is no doubt rushed throws because of pressure. A lot of it is on Tom though, he isn't even giving his WR the opportunity to make plays on over 25% of his throws.
http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/96276/top-stats-to-know-patriots-at-chiefs (that is the off target stat, before the Chief's game, but having watched that game I doubt it went down significantly.)
 

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Ed Hillel said:
I'm not really sure the unhappiness goes much beyond the losing, but if he has regressed, and Jimmy is catching up to him in practice, then maybe this is it. If they have to move on, they have to move on. Since Brady seems to have such a difficult time acclimating to new talent around him in recent years, I'm not sure how he'd fare in an entirely new system, but it could be really sad to watch. I still don't think it will happen, but if they keep losing and Brady actually is regressing, Bill won't hesitate.
Anyone discussing the QB aging curve should really read this article from Brian Burke first. Here's the interesting/relevant tidbits:
 
One of the more interesting things in the numbers was that the final year of a QB's career, regardless of age, is usually pretty bad, but not necessarily worse than the usual year-to-year variation in any individual QB's resume. In fact, the final year of a QB's career, on average, represents a decline of -0.75 AYPA. This is far worse than any one year of average decline due to age--actually equivalent to about 6 years of decline. To me, this suggests that natural variance is helping end many QB careers.
 
The bottom line is that very successful quarterbacks like Manning aren't going to become bad slowly. All of sudden one year, they'll have significant drop-off in performance. If they were 26 and had the same kind of season or had a similar injury, they'd no doubt be back at camp the following July. But at 36, that job in the broadcast booth will seem quite enticing. Successful, established QBs will generally continue to be successful until one day they're not. We won't see it coming. But of course, everyone will pretend they did.