Post Season Poll
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
I don't think the importance of today's win can be overemphasized. It made for the first winning series in Seattle since 2013. It made for a 3-3 road trip against two playoff contenders. It made for an 8-6 record to this point in September. It made for the bud of a winning streak and surely created good vibes for the trip home and the start of the homestand against the Os, Mets and Yanks.
8-6 in Sept comes via:
3-2 vs Rays (two 1-run wins, one 1-run loss in extras)
2-1 vs Guardians (one 1-run win)
1-2 vs White Sox (one 1-run win in extras, two 1-run losses)
2-1 vs Mariners (one 1-run loss, one win in extras, one win from a big 8th)
4-4 in 1-run games, 2-1 in extras, 6-5 vs playoff contenders
Which is to say, they seem to have righted the ship that was taking on water in August. And now they have 14 games remaining, with just three against a >.500 team. I like their chances. They're 83-65. I can see them going 10-4 the rest of the way. If 93-69 isn't enough for a wild card spot, WTF are you gonna do?
Blue Jays have a pretty easy schedule coming: 3 vs Twins, 3 @ Rays, 4 @ Twins, 3 vs Yankees, 3 vs Os
Yankees is a bit tougher: 1 @ Os, 3 vs Guardians, 3 vs Rangers, 3 @ Red Sox, 3 @ Jays, 3 vs Rays.
Looks to me like Sox-Jays in the Wild Card at Fenway (Sox took the season series vs the Jays 10-9).
8-6 in Sept comes via:
3-2 vs Rays (two 1-run wins, one 1-run loss in extras)
2-1 vs Guardians (one 1-run win)
1-2 vs White Sox (one 1-run win in extras, two 1-run losses)
2-1 vs Mariners (one 1-run loss, one win in extras, one win from a big 8th)
4-4 in 1-run games, 2-1 in extras, 6-5 vs playoff contenders
Which is to say, they seem to have righted the ship that was taking on water in August. And now they have 14 games remaining, with just three against a >.500 team. I like their chances. They're 83-65. I can see them going 10-4 the rest of the way. If 93-69 isn't enough for a wild card spot, WTF are you gonna do?
Blue Jays have a pretty easy schedule coming: 3 vs Twins, 3 @ Rays, 4 @ Twins, 3 vs Yankees, 3 vs Os
Yankees is a bit tougher: 1 @ Os, 3 vs Guardians, 3 vs Rangers, 3 @ Red Sox, 3 @ Jays, 3 vs Rays.
Looks to me like Sox-Jays in the Wild Card at Fenway (Sox took the season series vs the Jays 10-9).
Past week went almost perfectly! Sox jumped ahead with the WC lead… Jays look human, Yankees imploded. Sox took out the mariners on the road….
7-4 final record over the last stretch would put them at 93 wins. That’s assuming a split with the Mets, dropping 2/3 to the MFY’s (please just sweep them!) and one loss out of the final 5 in Bawmer and DC.
My optimism soared today.
The Whitlock injury is keeping longer and deeper playoff expectations pretty grounded
7-4 final record over the last stretch would put them at 93 wins. That’s assuming a split with the Mets, dropping 2/3 to the MFY’s (please just sweep them!) and one loss out of the final 5 in Bawmer and DC.
My optimism soared today.
The Whitlock injury is keeping longer and deeper playoff expectations pretty grounded
If the Sox go 6-5, the MFY have to go 9-3 to catch them. Winning that series would basically wrap it up.
Yep gotta bury them there ... My friends and I celebrate "Yankee Elimination Day" every year (been able to do it for the last 20 years all but once!) ...though wouldn't you all rather face the Yankees in a single elimination game than Toronto and they way they're playing ...?
Tough call. In a one game series, Cole is probably the toughest possible pitcher to face although the Sox have done ok against him at times. If the Sox were to meet the Jays, it means the Yankees didn’t make the playoffs which is really the best possible outcome. Worst case is Sox not making playoffs which is just barely better than Sox losing to Yankees in a one game (and may actually be worse now that I think about it).
My fear of losing to the Yankees is greater than my hope to win.
If this was 2018 I wasn't as scared... but this current team I don't have the hope or expectations that I did for 2018 so I'd rather just make sure the Yankees don't sneak in and get in a hot streak. If the Sox can somehow win a WC game, I don't think they can win the whole thing.
EDIT- I'm starting to lean towards the Blue Jays being the best team in the league and I'd be okay with them beating the Sox. But yeah... if the Sox actually can win.... I don't know. Obviously anything can happen but none of Chicago, Tampa or Houston are really killing it.
If this was 2018 I wasn't as scared... but this current team I don't have the hope or expectations that I did for 2018 so I'd rather just make sure the Yankees don't sneak in and get in a hot streak. If the Sox can somehow win a WC game, I don't think they can win the whole thing.
EDIT- I'm starting to lean towards the Blue Jays being the best team in the league and I'd be okay with them beating the Sox. But yeah... if the Sox actually can win.... I don't know. Obviously anything can happen but none of Chicago, Tampa or Houston are really killing it.
14 Days left in the season, 11 Games for the Red Sox - the "new" pennant race/Wild Card Race for the post season has 5 teams left competing with the Red Sox for one of two spots. Magic Number vs. Cleveland is 2 (and they are not included in the chart); While the Sox are still alive for the division - this chart is focusing on the countdown to a wild card clinch. It would be great to avoid a play-in and better to win the Wild Card game and get into a playoff series - but here is (hopefully) an easy place to view the schedules and watch the numbers decrease toward a post-season game (or at least a post season, play-in game)
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| Date/Schedule | Red Sox MAGIC #'s |
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| 20-Sep | OFF | at Rays | Texas | Seattle | at Oakland | |||||
| 21-Sep | Mets | at Rays | Texas | Seattle | at Oakland | |||||
| 22-Sep | Mets | at Rays | Texas | Seattle | at Oakland | |||||
| 23-Sep | OFF | At Twins | OFF | Seattle | at Oakland | |||||
| 24-Sep | Yankees | At Twins | at Boston | Houston | at LA Angels | |||||
| 25-Sep | Yankees | At Twins | at Boston | Houston | at LA Angels | |||||
| 26-Sep | Yankees | At Twins | at Boston | Houston | ar LA Angels | |||||
| 27-Sep | OFF | OFF | OFF | at Seattle | Oakland | |||||
| 28-Sep | at Orioles | Yankees | At Toronto | at Seattle | Oakland | |||||
| 29-Sep | at Orioles | Yankees | At Toronto | at Seattle | Oakland | |||||
| 30-Sep | at Orioles | Yankees | At Toronto | OFF | OFF | |||||
| 1-Oct | at Nationals | Orioles | Rays | at Houston | LA Angels | |||||
| 2-Oct | at Nationals | Orioles | Rays | at Houston | LA Angels | |||||
| 3-Oct | at Nationals | Orioles | Rays | at Houston | LA Angels |
If Boston can go 2-3 against the NY teams and 4-2 against the O's and Nats, that gets them to 92 wins. I'm hoping they go 3-2 against the NY teams and 5-1 against the O's and Nats, but 92 wins *should* be enough. The Yanks would have to go 9-3 to tie them. That's a tall order facing Boston, Toronto, and Tampa for 9 of those 12 games.
If Georgy Porgy were still alive he'd be really complaining about the schedule and how it didn't favor the MFY........
Just keep playing well against the bad teams. Gotta sweep Baltimore again. Mets are fading, Yankees are fading, Nationals are rebuilding. Pitch, play defense and have good AB’s. They’ll lose a few but if they play well, they should win enough of them
At full strength, I think the Sox match up with every other team but Houston and Toronto (hence my cries to GFIN) ...Or, maybe those are the only two teams in the AL that I feel clearly have more talent than the Red Sox ... TB has a special magic and are well run/coached - their "whole" has certainly been better this year. Though the season head to head run total is TB 106 Boston 98, so they seem within reach somehow. Though must remember they can field their positions better than the Sox.
But yes, Sox ain't as good as the, oh, top 4-5 teams in baseball. So I too don't expect them to win the WS, but would sure love them to advance past WC and play competitive baseball thereafter (that is if they make it to postseason (pu pu pu)).
I'll add the White Sox to that group. Trying to take off my crimson (h/t to Cannonball) tainted glasses, top to bottom I think that team has more "talent" than the 2021 Red Sox. The season long offensive stats don't account for the fact that they played most of the year without the heart of their lineup (Eloy/Robert/Grandal) who are now all back and healthy, and they sport the 5th best team ERA compared to the Red Sox's 15th (Lynn/Rodon/Giolito with a ton of upper tier middle relief guys and Hendriks out of the pen is pretty fearsome).
Still, we all saw the 2013 Red Sox steamroll a number of teams that were more "talented" on paper.
So, as we've all said, just get to the WC game, win it, and go from there.
That 2013 Tigers team looked to me like one of the most deep and talented playoff teams I can remember- both pitching and offense. Sox hit their Achilles’ tendon- weak bullpen though.
IIRC, Miggy was out that series too
Playoffs now a 89.7% shot per ESPN model. So with Iglesias ineligible (alas) and Arroyo iffy/rusty, can we assume a postseason starting lineup along the lines of:
2B Hernandez .782 OPS
3B Devers .884
SS Bogaerts .878
DH Schwarber .897
RF Martinez .867
CF Renfroe .819
LF Verdugo .793
1B Dalbec .804
C Vazquez .668
?
Killer O, worrisome D. But I don’t hate it…
2B Hernandez .782 OPS
3B Devers .884
SS Bogaerts .878
DH Schwarber .897
RF Martinez .867
CF Renfroe .819
LF Verdugo .793
1B Dalbec .804
C Vazquez .668
?
Killer O, worrisome D. But I don’t hate it…
I don't think they can trot out that D regularly, especially at Fenway, which demands excellent play from center and right field ... Maybe you can create a platoon essentially between Verdugo (who does have extreme splits) and Arroyo to balance O and D.
Vs. R line up is more O minded line up which would necessitate defensive swaps in the back third of the game if ahead:
Vs. L: C Vazquez/Plaw, 1B: Dalbec, 2B: Arroyo 3B: Devers, SS: X, LF: Schwarb/Martinez CF: Hernandez, RF: Renfroe DH: Martinez/Schwarb
Vs R: C Vazquez/Plaw, 1B: Dalbec 2B: Hernandez, 3B: Devers, SS: X, LF: Martinez/Schwarb, CF: Verdugo, RF: Renfroe, DH: Martinez/Schwarb
Alternative vs. R is starting Arroyo instead of Dalbec, with Schwarb at 1B, Arroyo at 2B, Verdugo at LF, Hernandez at CF
or you could just deal with one of Verdugo, Schwarb or Martinez out of the line up every game to maximize D, always keeping Hernandez in CF, Arroyo at 2B, and Dalbec at 1B:
Vs. L LF: Schwarb, DH: Martinez, no Verdugo
Vs R LF: Verdugo, DH: Schwarb, no Martinez ....
Match ups may dictate any of the above I suppose ...
As much as I don't like Verdugo in CF, I think you have to start him there and keep Renfroe in RF, especially in Fenway. And then deal with the weaker glove in left. Or we all just hope that Arroyo starts firing on all cylinders and can start at second.
Cora used the exact same 1-5 of the lineup and positions for this 5 game win streak (the entire Orioles & last two of the Mariners series Tuesday through Sunday), which I think says a lot about what to expect at the moment and in any playoff games:
1) CF Hernandez
2) RF Renfroe
3) 3B Devers
4) SS Bogaerts
5) DH Martinez
The rest seems still to be TBD. On Friday (vs LHP Akin) 6-9 was:
1B Dalbec
C Vazquez
LF Verdugo
2B Iglesias
On Saturday (vs LHP Lowther) 6-9 was:
LF Schwarber
1B Dalbec
C Vazquez
2B Iglesias
On Sunday (vs RHP Wells) 6-9 was:
1B Dalbec
C Plawecki
LF Verdugo
2B Iglesias
Seems like Cora wants Kiké in CF, Renfroe in RF, and JD DHing if at all possible. So I imagine the hope remains that Arroyo comes back and can play 2B. The backup plan feels like Verdugo in CF, Schwarber in LF, Kiké at 2B (their lineup for last Sunday's finale against the White Sox, the last time Kiké has played 2B).
At the moment I figure the mostly likely scenario is a Wild Card Game against LHP Robbie Ray. In that case, I would guess the initial lineup will be Saturday's:
LF Schwarber (.771 OPS vs LHP this year)
1B Dalbec
C Vaz
2B Arroyo
Verdugo (.549 OPS vs LHP) comes off the bench to replace Schwarber in LF if (please) we have a lead later in the game
Obviously a lot of this is guesswork. Does Arroyo come back and look good? Do the Sox make the WC game, and if they do is it against the Jays? If it's the Jays, did they burn Ray to get into the WC game? Etc.
1) CF Hernandez
2) RF Renfroe
3) 3B Devers
4) SS Bogaerts
5) DH Martinez
The rest seems still to be TBD. On Friday (vs LHP Akin) 6-9 was:
1B Dalbec
C Vazquez
LF Verdugo
2B Iglesias
On Saturday (vs LHP Lowther) 6-9 was:
LF Schwarber
1B Dalbec
C Vazquez
2B Iglesias
On Sunday (vs RHP Wells) 6-9 was:
1B Dalbec
C Plawecki
LF Verdugo
2B Iglesias
Seems like Cora wants Kiké in CF, Renfroe in RF, and JD DHing if at all possible. So I imagine the hope remains that Arroyo comes back and can play 2B. The backup plan feels like Verdugo in CF, Schwarber in LF, Kiké at 2B (their lineup for last Sunday's finale against the White Sox, the last time Kiké has played 2B).
At the moment I figure the mostly likely scenario is a Wild Card Game against LHP Robbie Ray. In that case, I would guess the initial lineup will be Saturday's:
LF Schwarber (.771 OPS vs LHP this year)
1B Dalbec
C Vaz
2B Arroyo
Verdugo (.549 OPS vs LHP) comes off the bench to replace Schwarber in LF if (please) we have a lead later in the game
Obviously a lot of this is guesswork. Does Arroyo come back and look good? Do the Sox make the WC game, and if they do is it against the Jays? If it's the Jays, did they burn Ray to get into the WC game? Etc.
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Tampa is at 93 wins with 10 games left. (1 vs Tor, 3 vs Mia, 3 at Hou, 3 at NYY)
Boston is at 87 wins with 10 games left. (1 vs NYM, 3 vs NYY, 3 at Bal, 3 at Was)
Toronto is at 85 wins with 11 games left. (1 at TB, 4 at Min, 3 vs NYY, 3 vs Bal)
New York is at 85 wins with 10 games left. (1 vs Tex, 3 at Bos, 3 at Tor, 3 vs TB)
It's quite possible (likely?) that all four of these teams win 90+ games. Has the ever happened before?
Boston is at 87 wins with 10 games left. (1 vs NYM, 3 vs NYY, 3 at Bal, 3 at Was)
Toronto is at 85 wins with 11 games left. (1 at TB, 4 at Min, 3 vs NYY, 3 vs Bal)
New York is at 85 wins with 10 games left. (1 vs Tex, 3 at Bos, 3 at Tor, 3 vs TB)
It's quite possible (likely?) that all four of these teams win 90+ games. Has the ever happened before?
Tampa is at 93 wins with 10 games left. (1 vs Tor, 3 vs Mia, 3 at Hou, 3 at NYY)
I think Tampa will be tapping the breaks a little with their remaining games. I don't think they'll reach 100. I'm saying they'll end up at 98, 5-5 finish.
Boston is at 87 wins with 10 games left. (1 vs NYM, 3 vs NYY, 3 at Bal, 3 at Was)
They're playing well and should be able to walk away with a 6-4 stretch at worst. I'm saying they'll go 7-3 to finish.
Toronto is at 85 wins with 11 games left. (1 at TB, 4 at Min, 3 vs NYY, 3 vs Bal)
Toronto is still the best team IMO. I think they'll finish 7-4 and in with the no. 2 WC spot.
New York is at 85 wins with 10 games left. (1 vs Tex, 3 at Bos, 3 at Tor, 3 vs TB)
Yankees recent struggles came at a tough time. 5-5 to finish. Boone will get canned.
I know they're not out of it... but Seattle and Oakland just can't make up the ground to overtake Toronto for that 2nd spot.
Playoff odds:
538: Sox 90 / Jays 71 / MFY 35
B-R: Sox 91 / Jays 79 / MFY 27
FG: Sox 92 / Jays 66 / MFY 39
Sox consistent across all three, some variance on the MFY and Jays.
538: Sox 90 / Jays 71 / MFY 35
B-R: Sox 91 / Jays 79 / MFY 27
FG: Sox 92 / Jays 66 / MFY 39
Sox consistent across all three, some variance on the MFY and Jays.
No we don’t. Just win our games and whatever Jays do is fine. No quarter to the MFYs. No quarter ever.
Jays losing helps the Sox championship equity, because the Jays are the much better team than the Yankees, Yankees losing helps the Sox fans personal happiness equity. I think it's up to each individual which one they put more value in.
Right now, I'm interested in Red Sox making the playoffs equity. Then, Yankees not making the playoffs equity, followed by Red Sox securing home field. 6-0 Rays.
Eh no matter what it's a coin flip whether Jays or Yankees. I just don't want the Yankees to have a side on the coin.
Awesome to have a couple "relatively" low-stress wins against the Mets.
This weekend should feel like a playoff series against the Yankees. And with both teams having a day off before and after - expecting 4 hour+ games. Silver lining is that even with an epic gut punch and Yankee sweep - Red Sox can control their playoff ticket by sweeping the O's and Nats next week. With the M's and A's playing 4 more times and Yanks-Jays 3 times - there are some guaranteed losses for those teams.
This weekend should feel like a playoff series against the Yankees. And with both teams having a day off before and after - expecting 4 hour+ games. Silver lining is that even with an epic gut punch and Yankee sweep - Red Sox can control their playoff ticket by sweeping the O's and Nats next week. With the M's and A's playing 4 more times and Yanks-Jays 3 times - there are some guaranteed losses for those teams.
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| Remaining Schedules |
RED SOX MAGIC #'s: |
7 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
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| 23-Sep | OFF | OFF | at Twins | at Oakland | Seattle | |
| 24-Sep | Yankees | at Boston | at Twins | at LA Angels | Houston | |
| 25-Sep | Yankees | at Boston | at Twins | at LA Angels | Houston | |
| 26-Sep | Yankees | at Boston | at Twins | at LA Angels | Houston | |
| 27-Sep | OFF | OFF | Off | Oakland | at Seattle | |
| 28-Sep | at Orioles | at Toronto | Yankees | Oakland | at Seattle | |
| 29-Sep |
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at Toronto | Yankees | Oakland | at Seattle | |
| 30-Sep | at Orioles | at Toronto | Yankees | Off | Off | |
| 1-Oct | at Nationals | Rays | Orioles | LA Angels | at Houston | |
| 2-Oct | at Nationals | Rays | Orioles | LA Angels | at Houston | |
| 3-Oct | at Nationals | Rays | Orioles | LA Angels | at Houston |
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I'm going into the MFY series figuring that even a 1-2 result will get the Sox into the playoffs. That still leaves the Sox a game up on NY with them facing a brutal final week. If the Yanks are not in WC position after Sunday (either with a sweep or a Toronto collapse against MIN) I think they're toast.
Sox have to win their series against MFYs. Then if Jays do likewise they are DOA. Just two out of three in each instance will do it.
1979 AL East had 3 teams at 90+, the 4th place team (MFYs) at 89 wins, and the 5th place team (Tigers) at 85 wins....I'll argue that is even more impressive (and comes without the '78 emotional ouchie).
There were only two divisions then, making multiple 90 win teams somewhat less impressive than today.
I think/hope the team is going to wear the yellow unis until they lose. So... I guess I'm on board with yellow and pale blue through October?
Take that up with the guy who cited '78 first (though a closer look shows that the 5th place team that year won 86 games!).
Maybe the real math difference is that with the balanced schedule back then you would get to see the dregs of the league maybe more often than today, plus you would not face the other 90-100+ game winners in your div. 18-19 times a season. On the other hand, there was a lot of parity in '79 - so while the A's, Mariners, Jays were total doormats and the White Sox were plain bad, everybody else was above .500.
Not that I actually avoid superstitious spasms myself (pu pu pu), but um ....... okay .... the winning streak started with the regular unis ...
i can't stand these uniforms. They look like something you might design for a kid's doll. Or maybe something a kid themselves designed in 9th grade art class ...atrocious .... wish the "city connect" unis (like the spirit of the idea there at least) still had the sox color palette or something ... bright yellow? And baby blue? jesus h christ in a chicken basket
I get respecting the streak and all that, but the current streak started when they were wearing their normal colors in Seattle. So I don't buy that the streak is because of the uniforms.
But I don't think losing a game will make a difference. These guys are wearing the yellow because they want to, not because of a streak. They've been wearing the alternate jerseys (red at home, blue on the road) so often this year that it's barely fair to call them the alternates anymore. They're a non-traditional bunch. I was actually shocked to see that they did their team picture yesterday in the traditional home whites.
yes and yes.
Just as you say, the amazing thing about AL East is they all play each other 19 times (this might reveal the CWS meanwhile, they are in a crap division) ... and four likely will win at least 90 games. Amazing.
I think the Sox have collectively said they are going to wear the yellow unis until they lose. I hope they stop wearing them when they next lose. And that puts me in the position of hoping they wear the yellow unis through October.
EDIT: Here is Xander's quote: "Hey, we're on a good run. As of now, I don't anticipate us changing them for tomorrow. I don't know about the next day, but hopefully we have that thing on again. If we win tomorrow, hopefully we see it the next day also. I know it's not white and red, I know we're not the Yellow Sox, but we need wins right now. So if it's yellow, it's yellow."
oy ....gevalt. How about: lose one or two more in the regular season, and save some bullets for the post season. Back to the regular unis oh, after losing one of three to Yankees, WC1 wrapped up by penultimate game, allowing rest for final game and a loss. Then romp through the post season.
Wait.
Shit.
I think I just jinxed them.
(pu pu pu)
(pu pu pu)
(pu pu pu)
Three sets of three "pu pu pu"s reserved only for the most serious of situations. Can only call on that a few times a year.
(again: the winning streak started in regular uniforms, but, whatevs .... pu pu pu).
I wonder if it is a competitive advantage in NY for the the Sox to come out in what amounts to a disguise as the Belize City Bananas. OK, so they still have "Boston" on the front of the shirt, but if you're a Yankee fan that color is depriving you of your hatred of the sight of the "Red Sox" in your park..... so do you boo as loud? Do you laugh instead?
I'm trying to imagine something like fuchsia colored Yankees uniforms at Fenway Park - confusion is going to precede hatred with that, even with "New York" in bold on the uniform's front in whatever other colored lettering. It might be a good idea for this reason alone.