Pre-Game Thread: Buffalo

Mystic Merlin

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If Buffalo is smart they’ll take great pains to, in addition to running the ball, get Knox and Kroft heavily involved in the passing game. Something is wrong if Allen is tossing a lot of deep posts and go routes to Brown and Co.

Luckily for the Pats Allen will get aggressive down the field, and Gore and Singletary can’t hold a candle to Mixon as runners.
 

BaseballJones

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Looking forward to this thread talking it down to a coin flip.
Maybe not a coin flip, but it's very hard to see how the Patriots' offense scores more than like 13 points in this game. Buffalo's defense is elite, and the Patriots' offense....isn't. This could easily be a problem game. I still see the Patriots winning, but I'd see it as closer than a touchdown.
 

j44thor

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Maybe not a coin flip, but it's very hard to see how the Patriots' offense scores more than like 13 points in this game. Buffalo's defense is elite, and the Patriots' offense....isn't. This could easily be a problem game. I still see the Patriots winning, but I'd see it as closer than a touchdown.
Pats path to victory against good teams is very narrow and it relies on the opposing offense to turn the ball over. Luckily in Josh Allen the Pats face someone very capable of a multiple turnover game. Allen holds the ball longer than any other QB in the NFL and consistently tries to make plays downfield or with his legs. I would expect a NE win to include being at least +2 on turnover margin. Tough to see them winning by more than one score unless they have a defensive/ST TD.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Luckily for the Pats Allen will get aggressive down the field, and Gore and Singletary can’t hold a candle to Mixon as runners.
25 carries, 136 yards, 5.4 yards per carry -- Mixon game 15.
17 carries, 109 yards, 6.4 yards per carry -- Gore game 4

I don't think the quality of the running back really matters all that much for how well you can run against the Patriots this year. The defensive line is getting pushed back and we don't really have enough bulk in our regular packages to gobble up space.

Teams are running well on us. Saturday will likely be another example.
 

tims4wins

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Hats and shirts game.

Better late than never.
Not too often they have lost those (in the regular season)... Miami (and Pittsburgh) last year comes to mind, otherwise I can't remember another loss where they had a chance to clinch the division.
 

Carmine Hose

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Why would they rest people if the bye isn't clinched? They are one game ahead of KC and lose the tiebreaker.
Assuming they can beat the Dolphins at home in a Week 17 "we quit" matchup with banged up people resting (Sanu, Edelman). If the Bears upset the Chiefs at Soldier Filed next Sunday night, all the better.
 

RedOctober3829

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Assuming they can beat the Dolphins at home in a Week 17 "we quit" matchup with banged up people resting (Sanu, Edelman). If the Bears upset the Chiefs at Soldier Filed next Sunday night, all the better.
Yeah that would be great. If they could get a sizable lead at halftime, rest everyone you can. But, they can't blow another Week 17 games against Miami. It cost them in 2013 and would be worse for them to not have a bye this year.
 

Super Nomario

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25 carries, 136 yards, 5.4 yards per carry -- Mixon game 15.
17 carries, 109 yards, 6.4 yards per carry -- Gore game 4

I don't think the quality of the running back really matters all that much for how well you can run against the Patriots this year. The defensive line is getting pushed back and we don't really have enough bulk in our regular packages to gobble up space.

Teams are running well on us. Saturday will likely be another example.
I would have been with you a month ago, but the run D has been much improved since the bye, shutting down Sanders, Hyde, and McCoy and limiting Elliott to a pretty pedestrian day. Even yesterday, the run D was horrible on the opening drive (8 carries for 68 yards) but allowed 96 yards on 24 carries the whole rest of the game (a mediocre 4.0 YPC). Cincinnati's two longest runs of the day were on their first drive.

Am I cherry-picking? Sure, but over the whole season, the run D is down to 4.3 YPC against (exactly the league average), which ranks 17th, almost dead middle of the pack.
 

RedOctober3829

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I would have been with you a month ago, but the run D has been much improved since the bye, shutting down Sanders, Hyde, and McCoy and limiting Elliott to a pretty pedestrian day. Even yesterday, the run D was horrible on the opening drive (8 carries for 68 yards) but allowed 96 yards on 24 carries the whole rest of the game (a mediocre 4.0 YPC). Cincinnati's two longest runs of the day were on their first drive.

Am I cherry-picking? Sure, but over the whole season, the run D is down to 4.3 YPC against (exactly the league average), which ranks 17th, almost dead middle of the pack.
Do you see the same thing as me here? I think in the past few games they have played pretty vanilla against the run then they adjust to some games, twists, and stunts and have more success. I also thought Adam Butler made a big difference yesterday. They did not have any success stopping Mixon with Guy and Shelton in the middle. Butler came in and made some key plays.
 

j44thor

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Some friendly advice for Tom: wherever #27 on defense is, throw somewhere else.
Better yet, run, run and run some more. BUF can be run on, 17th rush DVOA compared to 5th pass DVOA. A punt is not at all a bad outcome on Saturday. NE and BUF both need turnovers to win games because neither have an offense that can consistently move the ball downfield. Very unlikely to be a BAL/KC/HOU type game where NE gets behind by multiple scores unless the offense turns it over multiple times.
 

Number45forever

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Really excited for this game. It's now, or never, for this season's team. Hat and t-shirt game, I would think they'll come out and play well. Start really building for whatever January holds in store. I'd hope we got a lot of running, play action, misdirection stuff. Keep working in Harry and Sanu. More Burkhead. Time to go, it's getting late.
 

Pandemonium67

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25 carries, 136 yards, 5.4 yards per carry -- Mixon game 15.
17 carries, 109 yards, 6.4 yards per carry -- Gore game 4

I don't think the quality of the running back really matters all that much for how well you can run against the Patriots this year. The defensive line is getting pushed back and we don't really have enough bulk in our regular packages to gobble up space.

Teams are running well on us. Saturday will likely be another example.
Not to disagree with the main point of your post, but Reiss noted this:

The Bengals successfully ran the ball on their first eight plays against the Patriots' nickel defense, and the fits and tackling were poor. The ninth play was a pass for a touchdown. The Patriots then switched to more of a run-based front/personnel, and things settled down. It was a critical in-game adjustment, with defensive lineman Adam Butler providing a spark as a third-down lineman added to the mix. Reiss

That is, the Pats started in a scheme designed to stop the pass, at the expense of stopping the run. They switched out of it after getting clobbered, and things were much better. After giving up the first-drive TD and then the FG, the Pats D shut everything down and outscored the Bengals the rest of the way.

I guess I see a glimmer of hope here.
 

E5 Yaz

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That is, the Pats started in a scheme designed to stop the pass, at the expense of stopping the run. They switched out of it after getting clobbered, and things were much better.
Who starts out to stop the pass against the Bengals? They knew everything starts with Mixon.
 
Until proven otherwise, my default assumption is that Belichick is in full Milton Berle mode (TM Simmons), just whipping out what he thinks he needs every week in terms of game planning to try to get by and saving his most exotic looks for the games that matter the most. This is what he ALWAYS does, and yet everyone in "The Sky Is Falling!" mode far too easily and quickly forgets this. I expect the Bills will have their hands full with the Patriots' scheming, and by Saturday night everyone will have renewed hope about the possibility of another Super Bowl.
 

Red Averages

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Until proven otherwise, my default assumption is that Belichick is in full Milton Berle mode (TM Simmons), just whipping out what he thinks he needs every week in terms of game planning to try to get by and saving his most exotic looks for the games that matter the most. This is what he ALWAYS does, and yet everyone in "The Sky Is Falling!" mode far too easily and quickly forgets this. I expect the Bills will have their hands full with the Patriots' scheming, and by Saturday night everyone will have renewed hope about the possibility of another Super Bowl.
If they win on Saturday, the Pats will need to:
- beat a Miami team they will be favored against by over 10
- get two weeks off
- before being favored at home against KC (70% chance) or Hou/Ten/Buf (30% chance)
- and then a tough game vs. Bal (80% chance) or hosting the AFC championship.

So yes they’ll have probably a 30-40% probability of reaching the SB if they can take care of business Saturday. If they can do so convincingly people SHOULD get excited.
 

Valek123

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If the Patriots Running backs break tackles and fight to average 4 yards a carry(HUGE TEST for the offensive line) and N'Keal Harry goes for 65+ I think we have a good path for victory.

If it comes down to Edelman winning 1 v 2 against this defense as Brady looks to check down under the blitz they are in trouble.

Both defenses will show up, it's up to a few key matchups and I highlight the top row as the must happen to win. But it's BB... They will probably hand off to Elandon Roberts throughout the game for 85 yards.
 

Cotillion

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God we need this O-line to get healthy and gel. This is going to be a brutal game if they can't hold up at all.
 

BaseballJones

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If the Patriots Running backs break tackles and fight to average 4 yards a carry(HUGE TEST for the offensive line) and N'Keal Harry goes for 65+ I think we have a good path for victory.

If it comes down to Edelman winning 1 v 2 against this defense as Brady looks to check down under the blitz they are in trouble.

Both defenses will show up, it's up to a few key matchups and I highlight the top row as the must happen to win. But it's BB... They will probably hand off to Elandon Roberts throughout the game for 85 yards.
Will be unbelievably helpful if the D or ST can manage to score. Which I think is possible.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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[B]Mike Reiss[/B]‏Verified account @MikeReiss 5h5 hours ago

John Hussey has been assigned as referee for Saturday's Patriots-Bills game. Hussey, who is No. 35 in your officiating program, has been an NFL official since 2002 and was promoted to referee in 2015. Entering last week, his crew averaged 15.8 penalties per game (5th fewest).
I don't know about everyone else but I read 15.8 as 5th fewest and my first thought was that the number is way too high.
 

CFB_Rules

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I don't know about everyone else but I read 15.8 as 5th fewest and my first thought was that the number is way too high.
I'd be far more interested in the number of "judgment" fouls vs procedural. It only takes one or two games in a loud stadium where a team decides to false start 6 times for a "total average number of fouls" metric to get thrown seriously out of whack.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I'd be far more interested in the number of "judgment" fouls vs procedural. It only takes one or two games in a loud stadium where a team decides to false start 6 times for a "total average number of fouls" metric to get thrown seriously out of whack.
For sure, there are plenty of wholly undisciplined teams out there.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I'd be far more interested in the number of "judgment" fouls vs procedural. It only takes one or two games in a loud stadium where a team decides to false start 6 times for a "total average number of fouls" metric to get thrown seriously out of whack.
The non-paywalled version of this doesn't tell the complete story but it does suggest Hussey's crew is in the lower ranks of "judgment calls" as well - 3rd fewest holding calls and 6th fewest (tied) PI calls: https://www.rotowire.com/football/referee-stats.php
 

Bowhemian

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I don't know about everyone else but I read 15.8 as 5th fewest and my first thought was that the number is way too high.
I had the same thought. That seems like a ton of penalties. I have no data to back it up, but based on the games that I have watched, it seems as though the # of penalties is way up this year.
 

SamCassellsStones

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I think the O line finally starts to gel and the offense is capable enough to sustain a couple drives, which should be good enough. Lets say something like 20-9 (note: this projection is not evidence based, and probably won’t happen).
 

InstaFace

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Maybe not a coin flip, but it's very hard to see how the Patriots' offense scores more than like 13 points in this game. Buffalo's defense is elite, and the Patriots' offense....isn't. This could easily be a problem game. I still see the Patriots winning, but I'd see it as closer than a touchdown.
The 2019 Patriots certainly would never score 16 points against the 2019 Buffalo Bills, particularly if they got that 16 despite Brady throwing an end-zone pick. :)
 

Valek123

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I think his point remains that the patriots offense needs to score more than 13 points. If Brady gets that end-zone pick again it's likely the game.
 

BaseballJones

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The 2019 Patriots certainly would never score 16 points against the 2019 Buffalo Bills, particularly if they got that 16 despite Brady throwing an end-zone pick. :)
Well...

(1) I specifically referred to the Pats’ *offense*, not the team as a whole.

(2) In their first meeting the Pats’ offense scored just 9 points; the special teams got a touchdown.

(3) At that point in the season the offense was actually playing well, and still only managed the 9 points.

So yes it’s legit to wonder if the Pats’ offense will generate more than 13 points this weekend. Believe me, I sure hope they do.
 

Van Everyman

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I think his point remains that the patriots offense needs to score more than 13 points. If Brady gets that end-zone pick again it's likely the game.
Do you mean if they only score 13 and he throws an end-zone pick? Because it seemed to work out ok last time even if it was closer than I think we all would've liked.

Where I'm more confident is in the Pats' defense against this Bills offense. Yes, the Bills are healthier on offense than the Pats, but Allen is such a huge drop off from even a scampering, under-siege, somewhat injured Brady that I think that Pats have a significant advantage. Put another way, I'm comfortable predicting that while Brady may perform worse by the counting stats, he will make fewer backbreaking mistakes than Allen.
 

RedOctober3829

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Jonathan Jones is a DNP today. Doesn't look good for him playing on Saturday. It is expected that Jason McCourty(if healthy) or Chung will handle the slot duties. Cole Beasley is having a nice year in the slot for Buffalo with 60 catches for 670 yards and 6 TDs. 32 of his 60 catches have been for 1st downs.
 

Valek123

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Do you mean if they only score 13 and he throws an end-zone pick? Because it seemed to work out ok last time even if it was closer than I think we all would've liked.
Yes, I do not think 13 points wins the game, if they score 13 and he was intercepted in the endzone(instead of 6 points) I believe that will be the difference. Simple comment, nothing more to it.

With more injuries popping up, I still think the keys are the ones I listed in the first post - I think Buffalo has improved as the season has progressed from the first meeting and I can't say the same for the Pats. They seem as lost on offense as I've ever seen them, hopefully this week of practice after the end of last game is the confidence boost they need and they step forward.