Pre-Game Thread: Buffalo

mwonow

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Jonathan Jones is a DNP today. Doesn't look good for him playing on Saturday. It is expected that Jason McCourty(if healthy) or Chung will handle the slot duties. Cole Beasley is having a nice year in the slot for Buffalo with 60 catches for 670 yards and 6 TDs. 32 of his 60 catches have been for 1st downs.
Jon Jones has been awful for weeks now. Taking a few weeks to get his body and head straight maybe isn't a bad thing.
 

NomarsFool

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I like the odds of Josh Allen throwing against the Patriots' defense. I think he throws a lot of very catchable balls, very off target. Of course, that could be a disadvantage for Gilmore - because he plays so tight on the receivers. Neither he nor the receiver will have a chance at the ball :)
 

Number45forever

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Win this week, please. Then lock Edelman in a training room for two weeks to get ready for the divisional round. Beat Miami without him.

Profit.
 

Pandemonium67

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I wonder if JE11 is even going to play, or at least play well. Against Cinci, 40 snaps, 2 catches on 5 targets for 9 yards.

Saturday could be the Jakobi and N'Keal breakout extravaganza.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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I wonder if JE11 is even going to play, or at least play well. Against Cinci, 40 snaps, 2 catches on 5 targets for 9 yards.

Saturday could be the Jakobi and N'Keal breakout extravaganza.
Could be. Or it could be the “offense musters 150 total yards and 6 points” debacle.

Just survive and advance please.
 

steveluck7

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Yes. This is definitely the week they could have Roberts in at FB and run play action, letting Lacosse release up the seam.
I think this week, Josh can get creativewith passes out of regular run looks
 

BaseballJones

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One thing to keep in mind about how bad the Pats' offense has been playing is this little maxim: a successful drive is one that ends with a kick - a FG, a PAT, or a punt. In other words, just do NOT turn the ball over, and the defense and special teams will make plays for you.

This season so far, the Patriots are #3 in the NFL in fewest turnovers: 8 interceptions, 4 lost fumbles, for 12 turnovers. NO is #1 with 8, and GB is #2 with 9. And when you think about it, when have the Patriots gotten into trouble this year? Turnovers.

In the Ravens game, they got back into it thanks to generating Baltimore turnovers (the Ravens are also very good at protecting the football, btw - damn, they're good at EVERYTHING), but then just as the Patriots were driving for the lead, Edelman coughs it up, and Brady later throws a game-sealing INT.

In the Texans game, the Pats scored first, immediately got the ball back, and then Brady threw a terrible INT that led to a Houston TD, and the Texans never looked back.

In the Chiefs game, the Pats essentially had two backbreaking turnovers: one on the blocked FG attempt that would have put them up 10-3, and that blocked FG led to a Chiefs' TD, so the score, instead of being 10-3 NE, was 10-7 KC. And then Brady threw an interception that led to another Chiefs' touchdown.

So while we hate the ugly Brady throws in the dirt, most of them are on purpose, looking to avoid turnovers. The Pats are currently 5-0 in games where they haven't turned it over, by a combined score of 124-48.

When the Pats are X in the turnover margin....

>+1: 6-0
+1: 4-1
0: 0-1
-1: 1-1
<-1: 0-0

So 10-1 when they are in the positive in turnover margin. I know for most teams this is similarly a big deal. But for NE, their offense can't seem to make up for huge mistakes, so it's imperative that they play a clean game from a turnover standpoint. In years past, they could afford a couple of turnovers because their offense was still capable of putting up huge points. Not this year. Gotta play turnover-free ball against Buffalo this week.
 

Super Nomario

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I see this as a gut-check game. They don't need it for the division, they might not even need it for the bye (though they probably will), but if they can't find a way to beat a pretty one-dimensional Buffalo team at home this time of year, I have a hard time believing they're going to do much come playoff time.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I see this as a gut-check game. They don't need it for the division, they might not even need it for the bye (though they probably will), but if they can't find a way to beat a pretty one-dimensional Buffalo team at home this time of year, I have a hard time believing they're going to do much come playoff time.
This is right on. Granting that things can change fast, and matchups matter a LOT in the playoffs, we will get valuable information on Saturday in terms of setting expectations.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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So let's say they post a 16-13 win against the Bills. The offense is meh, but against an elite defense. The defense is really good but not out-of-this-world, but against a mediocre offense. Nonetheless, a big home win against a pretty good team.

What does that give us for information other than we know they won?
 

RedOctober3829

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I see this as a gut-check game. They don't need it for the division, they might not even need it for the bye (though they probably will), but if they can't find a way to beat a pretty one-dimensional Buffalo team at home this time of year, I have a hard time believing they're going to do much come playoff time.
I see these two games as gut-check games like last year. They were struggling on offense going into Week 16 vs. Buffalo last year and while they didn't look great in that game(scored 24 points and Brady only passed for 126 yards) it was a springboard to Week 17's thrashing of the Jets where they figured some things out. Just like last year, they need to form an identity on offense. Last year, they found a semblence of a running game which helped them in the passing game. This year, they need to get Harry/Sanu/LaCosse going and get some help for Edelman and White so they can not face double teams every time they have an important play.
 

BigSoxFan

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End of the day, if Edelman is as hobbled as he looks, this team is screwed. With a healthy-ish Edelman, this team has a path to the SB. No chance if he’s not able to make the plays we’re used to seeing. Sanu has been junk. Harry is getting a little intriguing but is far from a difference maker (although I still have hopes there). Dorsett is Dorsett. Jakobi is not consistently reliable. And TEs are invisible.

Agree with the gut check game comments. It’s a good but beatable opponent at home. Real contenders show up on Saturday. We’ll see which Pats team shows up. At this point, I don’t care about style points. Just win and practically lock down the bye.
 

E5 Yaz

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So let's say they post a 16-13 win against the Bills. The offense is meh, but against an elite defense. The defense is really good but not out-of-this-world, but against a mediocre offense. Nonetheless, a big home win against a pretty good team.

What does that give us for information other than we know they won?
Well, it will give them a win against the best opponent they've faced this year -- two, actually, although I'd argue that the Bills right now are a stronger team than when the Patriots beat them in Buffalo.

The "information," then, is that they are capable of beating a good team when it matters
 

BaseballJones

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Well, it will give them a win against the best opponent they've faced this year -- two, actually, although I'd argue that the Bills right now are a stronger team than when the Patriots beat them in Buffalo.

The "information," then, is that they are capable of beating a good team when it matters
Yes, but it doesn't tell us if their offense is any good, or how good their defense is against good opponents. Obviously, I'd be thrilled with a 16-13 win for lots of reasons, but I don't know that it really would tell us much.
 

loshjott

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Yes, but it doesn't tell us if their offense is any good, or how good their defense is against good opponents. Obviously, I'd be thrilled with a 16-13 win for lots of reasons, but I don't know that it really would tell us much.
We already know their offense isn't any good. Frankly, if they are dominant on O against Buffalo it won't tell us much due to SSS.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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We already know their offense isn't any good. Frankly, if they are dominant on O against Buffalo it won't tell us much due to SSS.
If the O-line can get to a little above average, and I think they're *capable* of that when healthy, then I think their offense can be pretty helpful. If they put up a solid performance against Buffalo I'll be greatly encouraged.
 

Super Nomario

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Yes, but it doesn't tell us if their offense is any good, or how good their defense is against good opponents. Obviously, I'd be thrilled with a 16-13 win for lots of reasons, but I don't know that it really would tell us much.
It's less that a 16-13 win tells us something and more that a 16-13 loss tells us something (and all of it bad).
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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This team also just really needs the bye week if its going to have a shot at making noise in January. Edelman is banged up, Brady's elbow is clearly bothering him, and a bunch of other guys (Collins, Shaq, Chung) have pretty clearly been carrying some lingering minor injuries that have been slowing them down. Just as importantly, a bye week also gives you a lot more practice time because you're not sinking time into recovery, game planning for the first weekend, and travel for that weekend. One of the weird things about an NFL schedule is that once you're into the season you don't actually have that much time to just practice and get guys a lot of reps, which is what this offense probably needs if its going to have any chance of improving.
 
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tims4wins

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I don’t think the score matters honestly. They pretty much looked like crap in the 24-12 win last year. Just win, get the bye, get as healthy as possible.
 

BaseballJones

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This team also just really needs the bye week if its going to have a shot at making noise in January. Edelman is banged up, Brady's elbow is clearly borrowing him, and a bunch of other guys (Collins, Shaq, Chung) have pretty clearly been carrying some lingering minor injuries that have been slowing them down. Just as importantly, a bye week also gives you a lot more practice time because you're not sinking time into recovery, game planning for the first weekend, and travel for that weekend. One of the weird things about an NFL schedule is that once you're into the season you don't actually have that much time to just practice and get guys a lot of reps, which is what this offense probably needs if its going to have any chance of improving.
I agree. I think the bye for the Pats this year is of especially large importance. Win two, then take a much needed bye week to recoup, recharge, and prepare. Then get after KC when they visit Foxboro.
 

BigJimEd

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What's the over/under on Josh Allen picks? 1.9 sounds reasonable
Pats did get three on him early in the season but he has managed to protect the ball much better than he was earlier. Only 2 picks in his last 9 games.
 

DJnVa

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Line hasn't moved despite 65% of public money on Bills. That means, at least somewhat, the sharps money is on New England.