Predicting the Future: How Many SBs Does Mahomes Win?

How many Super Bowls will Mahomes win before retirement?

  • 1

    Votes: 21 7.7%
  • 2

    Votes: 123 45.1%
  • 3

    Votes: 112 41.0%
  • 4

    Votes: 14 5.1%
  • 5

    Votes: 1 0.4%
  • 6+

    Votes: 2 0.7%

  • Total voters
    273

foulkehampshire

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It’s super hard to allocate so much salary to a QB, consistently finish as a top 3-4 team, and expect to continually hit on on draft going 29 or later. You end up getting thin and a gradually roster talent suffers.

I’m not betting against him winning a couple more, but I’m not expecting this level of success lasting much more that 3-4 years.
 

RIrooter09

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One more and he ends up with a Peyton Manning type legacy. Great stats, but fewer championships than his talent would have led you to believe.
 

Caspir

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The other thing that shouldn’t be overlooked is that only one team gets a bye now. He is a
more likely to play four games in the playoffs than Brady was in the past. Will help the counting stays, but it could, and likely will make the road to get there longer.
 

CaptainLaddie

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I voted 3. He's probably the most talented QB ever, and putting even average weapons around him with a healthy line means he turns those weapons into well above average or stars (similar to what Brady did with a bunch of guys -- Branch, Welker, Edelman, Givens, Amendola, Hogan, White, etc, etc, etc). They'd be well served to not pay for any more RB or WR help, try to keep Kelce healthy, and build a stronger OL (it was beat up even in the Browns game, I'm not convinced Fisher makes that much of a difference yesterday) to protect Mahomes in the pocket. The last thing this offense needs is another burner WR -- Hardman, Robinson, Watkins, Pringle -- they all seem like guys that could do -- collectively -- what Hill gives them (I'm sort of suggesting they Giambi-in-Moneyball Hill here, if you can't tell) and try to replace his 135 targets with a bunch of other guys rather than pay Hill -- he could be cut for only 5.3M in dead cap space rather than having him take up nearly 34M in combined cap space over the next two seasons.

But, the Chiefs GM is extremely good at his job and I'm sure is better at this than I am.
 

brandonchristensen

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Once his contract kicks in the Chiefs are in for a world of hurt.

He'll get 1 more, won't have the longevity of Brady. Doesn't have Pliability.
 

loshjott

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Maybe 1-2 more?
Looking at non-Brady top QBs....
Manning (Peyton) and Rodgers are often considered top 5 or so all-time.

They had a combined 30 seasons as starters... they only MADE 4 Superbowls, winning 3.
So even if you're a great QB and you play for a lot of seasons, AND you win most times you get there.... you still probably only get a few shots.
If Brady had never been born, P. Manning maybe has 2 more titles and Rodgers 1 more. And Wilson.
 

SoxJox

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Hearing him and Romo last night was insane. Casually yucking it up about the next half dozen Super Bowls he will undoubtedly play in.

We know that at one point (or five or six points if you're Brady) a new "best QB" will enter the league. Maybe that's Lawrence next year, and it becomes such a dogfight in the AFC with the Jags, KC, Baltimore, Buffalo, LA, etc., that Mahomes remains elite but falls just short repeatedly. Or, maybe he gets injured and loses some of that mobility. Too many unknowns, but I do think a Roethlisberger arc of winning young, falling short a few couple times, then grabbing another one a few years later is a decent bet. It would mean one title in the next two years to match that Steelers group that won XL and XLIII.
This is kinda where I'm at, too There are just so many unknowables - especially from a franchise and coaching perspective. But there's also a looming dynamic: according to this article:

...the NFL could be looking at a significant drop in the salary cap in 2021. In the negotiations for the 2020 season, the NFL and NFLPA did agree that the floor of the 2021 cap would be $175 million. That doesn’t mean that the cap is set at that amount, just that it will not go any lower be any lower.

A $175 million cap would be a problem for the Chiefs. Not only would it be a drop of about $25 million from what it was in 2020, it would be a $35-40 million loss from what most were expecting the cap to be in 2021 before the pandemic became an issue. That’s not just throwing a wrench in Brett Veach’s plans for 2021; it’s throwing the entire tool box at it and then setting it on fire.

The good news is that the foundation of the roster is set and secure. Every one of the star players I listed in the introduction [Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mitchell Schwaertz, Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and Tyrann Mathieu] is under contract in 2021. If you have a team built around those seven stars, you have a chance. However, the depth of the team could take a massive hit. I went through the entire roster at Over the Cap and found a staggering 25 players who have a chance to make K.C.’s 53-man roster in 2020 who are also set to be free agents after this season. TWENTY FIVE.

Unfortunately it gets worse. The Chiefs are already at about $200 million in salary cap dollars for 2021 WITHOUT those 25 future free agents. That means that if the cap were to drop to $175 million next season the Chiefs would be $25 million over the cap ($12 million if they roll over every single dollar in space they have right now) without re-signing any of those players. Now I trust Brett Veach and I know that NFL teams find ways to get around the cap all the time, but that is not a promising situation to overcome.
So even if only a moderate level of disruption forms in the wake of the above (and this would be only one of what I would expect to be several cyclical challenges that every team faces over a decade+), it still suggests this KC team will transform in some if not many ways in the very near term. I think this is why so few franchises can perform consistently enough - even with a QB like Mahomes - to regularly make it to the SB. Lots of moving parts.

I don't see KC / Mahomes returning within the next 2-3 years. At that point, he's at a "normal" age of primacy, and maybe he gets to 2 or 3 more SBs through age 35 (if he can physically survive for that long, which I doubt, as several above have pointed to his particular style of play, which lends itself to likely injury). I doubt he wins all of them. So I say 1 more. or 2 total for his career.
 

Shelterdog

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I voted 3. He's probably the most talented QB ever, and putting even average weapons around him with a healthy line means he turns those weapons into well above average or stars (similar to what Brady did with a bunch of guys -- Branch, Welker, Edelman, Givens, Amendola, Hogan, White, etc, etc, etc). They'd be well served to not pay for any more RB or WR help, try to keep Kelce healthy, and build a stronger OL (it was beat up even in the Browns game, I'm not convinced Fisher makes that much of a difference yesterday) to protect Mahomes in the pocket. The last thing this offense needs is another burner WR -- Hardman, Robinson, Watkins, Pringle -- they all seem like guys that could do -- collectively -- what Hill gives them (I'm sort of suggesting they Giambi-in-Moneyball Hill here, if you can't tell) and try to replace his 135 targets with a bunch of other guys rather than pay Hill -- he could be cut for only 5.3M in dead cap space rather than having him take up nearly 34M in combined cap space over the next two seasons.

But, the Chiefs GM is extremely good at his job and I'm sure is better at this than I am.
What the Patriot's success teaches you is a fan is how damn much you need to turn over your roster over time. With how fast careers go for non QBs, it wouldn't be surprising if neither Kelce nor Hill is a pro bowl caliber play in the _2022_(let alone 2023 or 2024) season. Some of the guys you mention -- Watkins and Robinson--are free agents. Building a stronger offensive line is going to be a challenge given the age of the guys on the roster. I'm not saying the chiefs can't do, but you're not always going to be able to get perhaps the most dangerous receiver in the league in the fifth and maybe the best QB outside the top ten in the draft.
 

tims4wins

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I went three, but it could be any number on that list and it wouldn't shock me, though anything above 4 would be incredible. He's an amazing talent: I think a small handful of QBs in their primes could put up Mahomes numbers with his offense but it's a small number. I think most great NFL QBs do worse than he did last night with the pressure on him (like that was worse than Brady/Giants) and his receivers let him down. However, beyond the sheer difficulty of winning a Super Bowl, there's a lot of yellow flags. He took some hits last night that most QBs wouldn't have because they wouldn't be running around like a crazy person to buy his WRs one more second. That hit with JPP/Suh/White (I think) last night was terrifying and in these playoffs he was knocked out a couple other times. He doesn't have a decorated injury history but one or two more concussions or another knee/foot injury could hamper his potential a ton. I also think he's been fortunate to work with the offensive talent he has. Kelce and Hill are all-pro talents, Hill's one of a few WRs who requires a defense to work around him, and he had a lot of rawer pieces around him with good skillsets. I wonder what that will look like when the salary cap crunch comes into play and KC needs to make decisions that either require him to rely on less transcendent talents or make him put up 40 a game because the D isn't there.

I've just noticed he often works himself out of jams by scrambling for seven seconds and hitting a WR who finally broke away from their coverage. The time in pocket splits back this up: anything over 2.5 seconds in the pocket he throws a lot deeper, is more prone to interceptions, and his completion rate plummets. He's still great, just a different QB. I don't know if that continues if you don't have Kelce and Hill being the targets in those scenarios. At some point that'll bite him or his scrambling will become less effective. I also wonder how he'll adjust as, inevitably, different offenses come into play. Last night was noticeable as, despite being down three scores, they were huddling up and running 20 seconds off the clock between plays. That led me to look at his splits (since PFR has tracked them for Brady, so not complete)

Of his 1618 passing attempts, 34 were no huddle and 165 were under the center. He is spending 90% of his time in the shotgun and 98% of his time in huddles on passing plays. Over 10% of Brady's passes were in no-huddle over his career (with small degradation stat wise) and about 70% in shotgun. I'm not super concerned about huddle/shot-gun, but we've seen that Brady has won a few super bowls due to his ability to be deadly in a no-huddle. It feels like he should be even more dangerous in a no-huddle but the severe reticence to run it is a little concerning to me, especially with the meh results doing it thus far. I spot checked a handful of prominent NFL QBs and the lowest number in terms of no-huddle I could find otherwise was 6% with Lamar Jackson. Most others range from 8-14% or so. Russell Wilson is probably the best comparison: mobile QB with a rocket arm who ran no huddle about 4-5% of the time, so it's not a true hindrance but I think worth noting. Russell has also dealt with garbage O-Lines and great WR talent and hasn't made it back to the SB since a tough loss to Brady. Kyler Murray just runs no-huddle for fun but nearly everyone else is in that 8-14% range in terms of top QBs.

I think he's the best QB in football and has plenty of talent around him right now. If anyone is going to win 3+ beyond Brady that is currently playing it's probably him, but it's a big ask and I still think the jury is out on whether he can adjust himself to different talent types over the years as Brady (and Rodgers, Manning, etc.) did and, if so, what that looks like. We saw last night what a collapsing line does: it forces him to scramble and make miracle pass attempts.

Edit: To be clear, I don't think any QB wins that game last night at QB with that line play. I do think Mahomes play style, KC's vertical offense, and the like really emphasized that there is a weakness there though. I was consistently surprised at the lack of screen plays, short passes, running back passes, etc. as the game went on.
Just wanted to say that this is a great, informative post. I had no idea about the time in shotgun / time in no huddle stats. Really nice work.

I voted that he'll win 2 more, likely one in the next 1-2 years and then perhaps one a few years down the road after that, but the more I think about it the more I think I would lean toward him going to 2 more and winning 1.
 

tims4wins

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If you’re a perennial Super Bowl contender every year with an all world QB, you can attract high end free agents who are willing to take team friendly deals. KC will be a major free agent destination, especially for ring chasing veterans.
Has this actually been the case for teams like GB, NO, and SEA?
 

CaptainLaddie

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What the Patriot's success teaches you is a fan is how damn much you need to turn over your roster over time. With how fast careers go for non QBs, it wouldn't be surprising if neither Kelce nor Hill is a pro bowl caliber play in the _2022_(let alone 2023 or 2024) season. Some of the guys you mention -- Watkins and Robinson--are free agents. Building a stronger offensive line is going to be a challenge given the age of the guys on the roster. I'm not saying the chiefs can't do, but you're not always going to be able to get perhaps the most dangerous receiver in the league in the fifth and maybe the best QB outside the top ten in the draft.
It's what happened to Seattle. They had all those Legion of Boom guys from late draft picks, then got Russ in the third, and were able to pay a bunch of guys to come in and fill the gaps. Once their original guys (Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor, Browner, Maxwell) got expensive... well, it got broken up.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Has this actually been the case for teams like GB, NO, and SEA?
- GB notoriously doesn't really sign FAs. Jimmy Graham?
- NO drafted Kamara and Thomas, but then went out and got guys like Manny Sanders for Brees to throw to. That's the biggest offensive FA I can think of.
- I can't think of someone in the last three years that went to Seattle.
 

nighthob

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One, he loses to Tampa again next year and then San Francisco in ‘23 as Brady wins his 9th ring. After that he suffers a nervous breakdown and begins raving about Bradyarlathotep attempting to banish him to the Court of Goodellathoth.
 

Leather

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- GB notoriously doesn't really sign FAs. Jimmy Graham?
- NO drafted Kamara and Thomas, but then went out and got guys like Manny Sanders for Brees to throw to. That's the biggest offensive FA I can think of.
- I can't think of someone in the last three years that went to Seattle.
Well, SEA signed Greg Olsen for 1 year/$7MM ($5.5MM guaranteed), so not exactly a veteran discount.
 

Marciano490

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Mahomes’ real weakness is in not marrying a super wealthy person to allow him to take hometown discounts while the Chiefs fill out the rest of the roster.
 

j44thor

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KC was either insanely good or insanely lucky in the draft from 13-17 drafting the core of this team (Kelce, Hill, Jones, Mahommes, Dee Ford, Fisher, Fulton) at least 1 pro-bowler every year. However things haven't been as rosy since 2018. As we've seen in NE, if you miss on the draft a few years in a row that has a significant impact on the team 2-3 years down the road. Jury is still out on CEH though I think his ceiling is a high end time share back and Hardman appears to be a wasted pick. Seems like they went a little too aggressive on skill position players last couple years and that will impact the depth on defense/OL for years to come. They probably have a 2yr window with the current core and then things will change considerably for KC.
 

BigSoxFan

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KC was either insanely good or insanely lucky in the draft from 13-17 drafting the core of this team (Kelce, Hill, Jones, Mahommes, Dee Ford, Fisher, Fulton) at least 1 pro-bowler every year. However things haven't been as rosy since 2018. As we've seen in NE, if you miss on the draft a few years in a row that has a significant impact on the team 2-3 years down the road. Jury is still out on CEH though I think his ceiling is a high end time share back and Hardman appears to be a wasted pick. Seems like they went a little too aggressive on skill position players last couple years and that will impact the depth on defense/OL for years to come. They probably have a 2yr window with the current core and then things will change considerably for KC.
Not sure Hardman has been a wasted pick since he's averaging about 550 yards / season on low volume. I think he's a solid player and they've gotten more out of him than we have gotten from Harry, for instance. But I think your point is correct. Their recent drafts haven't been that impressive beyond Mahomes/Hunt.

I will say that I am incredibly glad that KC passed on DK Metcalf twice in that draft.
 

Cellar-Door

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If Brady had never been born, P. Manning maybe has 2 more titles and Rodgers 1 more. And Wilson.
Or maybe not. And that's the thing, you can't predict what would have happened. Maybe the Patriots win some or all of those years with a different QB. Maybe the Steelers or Ravens come out instead, maybe the NFC dominates and Brees has 5 rings. The Patriots not being a dynasty would have had massive ripple effects, and we all know, being the best QB doesn't make you a SB team necessarily. And that's part of the point. It's nearly impossible to predict how the league will develop over a time period, and just being the best QB in the league a given year doesn't mean anything.
 

luckiestman

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Mahomes is great but seems like he might not be the most durable guy.
 

Harry Hooper

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The other thing that shouldn’t be overlooked is that only one team gets a bye now. He is a
more likely to play four games in the playoffs than Brady was in the past. Will help the counting stays, but it could, and likely will make the road to get there longer.
Yes, the loss of a bye is a huge development since one bad game boots you into the offseason.
 

DavidTai

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One thing I thought about with regard to Mahomes during the game was that all that scrambling took time off the clock. Time that could have been better conserved and made to work for you in more efficient ways.

497 yards of running around to pass sounds great until you realize that you gained what, about 300 actual yards and the other 197 yards was wasted time? How much time got wasted that way?
 
Aug 9, 2015
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I say 3 total. He’s an amazing talent but it comes down to health, organizational stability and, in the playoffs, having things break your way. I think he has vulnerabilities on all three. In particular, with the new playoff format, the latter, where he might have to win four games more often than not to win a championship, becomes even more open to chance and bad luck. All those byes were critical to Brady getting so many bites at the apple (with this year of course being the exception).
 

soxhop411

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pvg44

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One thing I thought about with regard to Mahomes during the game was that all that scrambling took time off the clock. Time that could have been better conserved and made to work for you in more efficient ways.

497 yards of running around to pass sounds great until you realize that you gained what, about 300 actual yards and the other 197 yards was wasted time? How much time got wasted that way?
They weren’t exactly designed rollouts. He was running for his life.

The more highlights I see of this game have made it abundantly clear that the KC coaching staff strategy for the game was “Mahomes be great.” If his coaches remain this arrogant and stupid, he may not get any more.
 

The Mort Report

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I want to hear from the two 6+ people. Lurkers can't vote so two people that did enough to become members believe it. Let's hear it

Aikmen(3), Bradshaw(4) and Montana(4) with Brady are the only ones with more than 2. Those guys also played when there was far less player movement. If Mahomes took a Brady levelish deal I might have considered 3 or 4, but with that huge contract I'll give him 1 more
 

DavidTai

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They weren’t exactly designed rollouts. He was running for his life.

The more highlights I see of this game have made it abundantly clear that the KC coaching staff strategy for the game was “Mahomes be great.” If his coaches remain this arrogant and stupid, he may not get any more.
Yeah, I just was surprised he didn't throw the ball away instead of drawing out the clock trying to make plays. Granted, he ALMOST got them anyway...
 

SMU_Sox

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I think he wins one more but I would have said the same for Rodgers, Favre, Marino (0 I know), R. Wilson, Brees, etc.
Rivers never won one - I always thought he would too.

This shit is impossible to predict. Given his age though I will say 2. 1 is a lot already. Super Bowls are hard to get to and hard to win.
 

Hendu for Kutch

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I think Brady has really skewed people's perceptions on what's realistic to expect from any QB. There are only a dozen QBs who have won multiple Super Bowls, and some of their cases actually further illustrate how great QB talent alone doesn't get the job done.

Peyton Manning - transcendent talent, won one Super Bowl while a great QB. Dragged to second title while barely functional. Only lost to Brady in the playoffs twice, so it's not like Brady is the reason he didn't win more.
Eli Manning - .500 QB who made about three good throws and otherwise rode his defense to multiple championships without any other hint of success in his career
Brian Griese - didn't even throw for 100 yards in either Super Bowl he won
John Elway - 0 for 4 when he was "the man", 2 for 2 when he wasn't
Bradshaw/Aikman - both very good QBs, but absolutely surrounded by Hall of Famers on both sides of the ball. Both won all their titles in a very narrow window without threatening much outside of that window.

The list of guys who were able to stay in contention year after year, be the driving force behind the success, and come through with any frequency is basically Brady and Montana. Maybe Starr, if you want to grandfather in his pre-Super Bowl era work. And Montana and Starr had unbelievable talent around them with no salary cap to disrupt it.

Marino, Rodgers, Brees, Fouts, Warner, Moon, Tarkenton, Young, Kelly - all of these guys were great QBs and none of them could crack two titles. It's really really really hard to win multiple Super Bowls regardless of how talented you are. Brady seemingly makes it look easy, but nobody should expect any single person to win multiple Super Bowls in their career. I chose two for Mahomes because he's got one in the bank already and his team won't face real cap jail for a couple of seasons, but NFL history is littered with guys who won or almost won early and then could never repeat it.
 

mwonow

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I think Brady has really skewed people's perceptions on what's realistic to expect from any QB. There are only a dozen QBs who have won multiple Super Bowls, and some of their cases actually further illustrate how great QB talent alone doesn't get the job done.

Peyton Manning - transcendent talent, won one Super Bowl while a great QB. Dragged to second title while barely functional. Only lost to Brady in the playoffs twice, so it's not like Brady is the reason he didn't win more.
Eli Manning - .500 QB who made about three good throws and otherwise rode his defense to multiple championships without any other hint of success in his career
Brian Griese - didn't even throw for 100 yards in either Super Bowl he won
John Elway - 0 for 4 when he was "the man", 2 for 2 when he wasn't
Bradshaw/Aikman - both very good QBs, but absolutely surrounded by Hall of Famers on both sides of the ball. Both won all their titles in a very narrow window without threatening much outside of that window.

The list of guys who were able to stay in contention year after year, be the driving force behind the success, and come through with any frequency is basically Brady and Montana. Maybe Starr, if you want to grandfather in his pre-Super Bowl era work. And Montana and Starr had unbelievable talent around them with no salary cap to disrupt it.

Marino, Rodgers, Brees, Fouts, Warner, Moon, Tarkenton, Young, Kelly - all of these guys were great QBs and none of them could crack two titles. It's really really really hard to win multiple Super Bowls regardless of how talented you are. Brady seemingly makes it look easy, but nobody should expect any single person to win multiple Super Bowls in their career. I chose two for Mahomes because he's got one in the bank already and his team won't face real cap jail for a couple of seasons, but NFL history is littered with guys who won or almost won early and then could never repeat it.
Just a nit, I know, but I'm pretty sure you mean Bob Griese, not his kid
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I think Brady has really skewed people's perceptions on what's realistic to expect from any QB. There are only a dozen QBs who have won multiple Super Bowls, and some of their cases actually further illustrate how great QB talent alone doesn't get the job done.

Peyton Manning - transcendent talent, won one Super Bowl while a great QB. Dragged to second title while barely functional. Only lost to Brady in the playoffs twice, so it's not like Brady is the reason he didn't win more.
Eli Manning - .500 QB who made about three good throws and otherwise rode his defense to multiple championships without any other hint of success in his career
Brian Griese - didn't even throw for 100 yards in either Super Bowl he won
John Elway - 0 for 4 when he was "the man", 2 for 2 when he wasn't
Bradshaw/Aikman - both very good QBs, but absolutely surrounded by Hall of Famers on both sides of the ball. Both won all their titles in a very narrow window without threatening much outside of that window.

The list of guys who were able to stay in contention year after year, be the driving force behind the success, and come through with any frequency is basically Brady and Montana. Maybe Starr, if you want to grandfather in his pre-Super Bowl era work. And Montana and Starr had unbelievable talent around them with no salary cap to disrupt it.

Marino, Rodgers, Brees, Fouts, Warner, Moon, Tarkenton, Young, Kelly - all of these guys were great QBs and none of them could crack two titles. It's really really really hard to win multiple Super Bowls regardless of how talented you are. Brady seemingly makes it look easy, but nobody should expect any single person to win multiple Super Bowls in their career. I chose two for Mahomes because he's got one in the bank already and his team won't face real cap jail for a couple of seasons, but NFL history is littered with guys who won or almost won early and then could never repeat it.
I'm generally on Team Superbowls are Hard to Win, having already voted for just 1 more (with 2 not a surprise) as the most likely outcome.

But I think some of these comparisons to other QBs are a little deceptive. What makes the case of Mahomes really interesting is that he is plausibly just better than all or almost all of these guys. Aaron Rodgers has put up mind-boggling numbers over the course of his career. He has three career seasons with an ANY/A > 8. Peyton also had three such seasons. Brady is the undisputed GOAT and has four such seasons. Mahomes has done it each of the three seasons he has played and is only 25. And ANY/A doesn't even account for his running ability, which is a real asset in terms of picking up yardage and first downs.

Its still really, really hard to win the Super Bowl which is why I only voted for one more as the most likely scenario. But what makes the hypothetical hard is that you plausibly have a QB who is still near the beginning of a 10-12 year run of regular season play that is more dominant than anybody in the history of the game. Whether he can keep it up is anybody's guess but at the current level he is not just another in a line of "great" QBs, he's well beyond that.
 

Silverdude2167

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I'm generally on Team Superbowls are Hard to Win, having already voted for just 1 more (with 2 not a surprise) as the most likely outcome.

But I think some of these comparisons to other QBs are a little deceptive. What makes the case of Mahomes really interesting is that he is plausibly just better than all or almost all of these guys. Aaron Rodger is just an insane QB who has put up mind-boggling numbers over the course of his career. He has three career seasons with an ANY/A > 8. Peyton also had three such seasons. Brady is the undisputed GOAT and has four such seasons. Mahomes has done it each of the three seasons he has played and is only 25. And ANY/A doesn't even account for his running ability, which is a real asset in terms of picking up yardage and first downs.

Its still really, really hard to win the Super Bowl which is why I only voted for one more as the most likely scenario. But what makes the hypothetical hard is that you plausibly have a QB who is still near the beginning of a 10-12 year run of regular season play that is more dominant than anybody in the history of the game.
I am less impressed by Mahomes having 3 of those seasons because look at the offense he has around him. It compares to or is better than the peak teams for Manning and Brady. Let's see what he does when he isn't throwing to all pros, or his O-Line is not good. He is an other world talent but so far he has been playing the game set to easy difficulty. Of course, I should note that I tend to not love Mahomes as much as other people, so I will look closer for "flaws".
 

E5 Yaz

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I was just wracking my brain trying to remember which teams Brian Griese played in the SB for.
Unless he was the holder for placekicks, he didn't get in the game the Broncos won while he was Elway's backup
 

BaseballJones

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I've said this but it bears repeating. When Tom Brady was making peanuts, he was an excellent QB but didn't put up otherworldly numbers. As he started making bank, the increase in salary came with a gigantic increase in production.

2000 - Brady signs a 3-year contract for $864,000, plus a $38,400 bonus. But it only goes from 2000-2001 because....

2002 - Brady signs a new deal. 5 years, $30.5 million, plus a $10m bonus. But it only goes from 2002-2005 because...

2006 - Brady signs a new deal. 6 years, $60 million, plus a $26.5m bonus. But it only goes from 2006-2009 because...

2010 - Brady signs a new deal. 4 years, $72 million. But then in 2013...

2013 - Brady signs an extension. 3 years, $27 million. Then in 2016...

2016 - Brady signs another extension. 2 years, $41 million, plus a $28m bonus. And then finally...

2019 - Brady signs a new deal. 1 year, $23 million.

So he was super cheap from 2000-2001. He was definitely more expensive from 2002-2005, but not crazy so. That went up considerably in 2006, and from then on was making big money, sometimes making the most in the league (that 2010 contract was the largest in league history for a brief amount of time).

But here's the point: during his early, cheap years, his production was good, but not amazing. From 2002-2006 his average season was:

61.6%, 3,743 yds, 25 td, 13 int, 88.7 rating - and his team had a .738 win percentage

Obviously he won a ton, but his individual stats weren't THAT incredible. Then he exploded. His salary skyrocketed and so did his production. From 2007-2019, his average season was:

64.7%, 4,417 yds, 33 td, 8 int, 100.8 rating - and his team had a .788 win percentage

Ok, all that to say, now let's look at Mahomes. Mahomes is on his cheap deal right now, which has allowed KC to retain all this talent around him. And his three-year stat line is insane, as he's averaged:

66.1%, 4,622 yds, 38 td, 8 int, 109.3 rating - and his team had a .826 win percentage.

It's very very difficult to picture Mahomes' actual on-field production getting much better than that. And it's very difficult to picture KC's team success being better than that. Especially when, as his salary skyrockets, he's sure to lose talent around him. I mean, honestly, how much better can Mahomes possibly be? Does anyone think he'll throw for 5,500 yards and 55 touchdowns every year? That's crazy talk.
 

Over Guapo Grande

panty merchant
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Nov 29, 2005
2,206
Worcester
Does Mahomes have the ability to adjust will be the biggest question going forward. TBay took the NE method of "beat us with your other players" -- basically ran the NE gameplan (double Hill, jam Kelce)-- the fact that their front 4 could get home was an added plus. Mahomes seemed to have no answer-- and sure, some of that is personell. Screens/draws aren't going to work when a team is getting home with only 4.

But what happens when Mahomes loses a half of a step, or his arm strength drops a tick? Those 390 yards rushing around may lead into 100 yards lost in sacks. The "wild/amazing" throws across his body off of the wrong foot will now be picked off. Can he slow the game down as his body slows down?
 

Hendu for Kutch

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Apr 7, 2006
6,322
Nashua, NH
I'm generally on Team Superbowls are Hard to Win, having already voted for just 1 more (with 2 not a surprise) as the most likely outcome.

But I think some of these comparisons to other QBs are a little deceptive. What makes the case of Mahomes really interesting is that he is plausibly just better than all or almost all of these guys. Aaron Rodgers has put up mind-boggling numbers over the course of his career. He has three career seasons with an ANY/A > 8. Peyton also had three such seasons. Brady is the undisputed GOAT and has four such seasons. Mahomes has done it each of the three seasons he has played and is only 25. And ANY/A doesn't even account for his running ability, which is a real asset in terms of picking up yardage and first downs.

Its still really, really hard to win the Super Bowl which is why I only voted for one more as the most likely scenario. But what makes the hypothetical hard is that you plausibly have a QB who is still near the beginning of a 10-12 year run of regular season play that is more dominant than anybody in the history of the game. Whether he can keep it up is anybody's guess but at the current level he is not just another in a line of "great" QBs, he's well beyond that.
You have a point, but on the other hand you could have replaced Mahomes with Rodgers in that paragraph and it would have been completely true a decade ago. And yet, just the one championship. Go back another decade further, and replace Mahomes with Manning and that was also true. And yet, just the one championship (that he had any responsibility for).
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
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I am less impressed by Mahomes having 3 of those seasons because look at the offense he has around him. It compares to or is better than the peak teams for Manning and Brady. Let's see what he does when he isn't throwing to all pros, or his O-Line is not good. He is an other world talent but so far he has been playing the game set to easy difficulty. Of course, I should note that I tend to not love Mahomes as much as other people, so I will look closer for "flaws".
We kind of saw what happens on Sunday night. He sucked. Granted, that was an extreme scenario against a great d-line.

Agree with your points though, guys like Hill and Kelce don't just grow on trees. Brady won his first 3 titles throwing to the likes of Brown, Branch, and Givens (obviously propped up by excellent D and ST). Will Mahomes be able to win without all-pro talent around him? We all saw what happened in 2011-2013 when Gronk was hurt - the Pats ultimately failed despite a lot of regular season success. KC will need to find their next generation of skill players and o-line to surround him with. Seattle has proven the o-line thing is not easy.

One thing I think people tend to miss is that because you churn the roster 30-40% annually... 3-4 years after you make a run, you might only have 10-15 guys left from the original roster. It's borderline like college in that sense. It takes a ton of continuous talent influx and making correct decisions to build a team that can contend every year beyond a single roster cycle of 3-4 years. Having a HoF QB makes it much easier to be competitive, but even guys like Brees have had multiple sub-.500 seasons. Let's see where KC is in 2022 when Mahomes' cap hit is over $40M, Kelce is 34, etc.