Less than 48 hours until the Premier League season begins.
Top Four
I see the top four teams as very close to each other. It's really difficult to determine where to place each team, and there's no order that would come as a surprise to me at the end of the year. That said, here's my best guess:
1. Cheslea (2014-15: 87 points, +41 goal differential)
Key transfers: Falcao (in), Begovic (in), Cech (out), Drogba (out)
They might have the best starting 11 in the league, or at minimum the best defensive six (DM+defenders+GK). Costa and Hazard are both in the top two or three at their positions and have the ability to score seemingly out of nowhere. But more than anything, I think Mourinho is in a class all his own when it comes to tactics. Chelsea have what it takes to grind out results and stay mostly consistent from the start of the year to the end. The big questions for Chelsea are (1) will Costa stay healthy? (2) do they have enough depth? They were extremely fortunate with injuries last year.
2. Arsenal (2014-15: 75 points, +35 goal differential)
Key transfers: Cech (in)
Even despite starting makeshift defensive formations for the first three months of last season and missing out on Coquelin until December, Arsenal had the third best defense last year by goals scored. Give the team a full year of a healthy Coquelin and Cech in goal and this might be the most solid defense Arsenal has had since the Invincibles era. Add in a healthy dose of confidence (4 wins, 2 losses, 3 draws vs Chelsea/City/United in the last year+) and I think the team is solidly in the mix unless injuries derail them yet again.
3. Manchester City (2014-15: 79 points, +45 goal differential)
Key transfers: Sterling (in), Delph (in), Milner (out)
City seem like a somewhat popular darkhorse to drop out of the top 4 this year, but I don't think that's very likely. Sure, if they start poorly or Aguero continues having constant injury niggles, the pressure might get to Pellegrini. But if City are healthy all year and get off to a hot start, I think they might actually be the best chance to prevent Chelsea from back-to-back titles. No question about the talent in the team and I think Sterling is a great addition and will play well with Aguero and Silva. Very high potential, but also a riskier choice than either Chelsea or Arsenal, and that's the only reason I have them third.
4. Manchester United (2014-15: 70 points, +25 goal differential)
Key transfers: Depay (in), Schweinsteiger (in), Schneiderlin (in), Robin van Persie (out), Falcao (out), Di Maria (out)
United have spent buckets of cash over the last three years and have 7th place and 4th place finishes to show for it. There's probably some pressure on Van Gaal to deliver immediate results, but despite the clear talent in the team, my guess is United will continue to have a few growing pains this year. Even if United hang on to De Gea and their defense remains as strong as it was last year, where will the goals come from? Rooney is still a top striker but the supporting cast is a bit lacking both in talent and depth compared to the other top 4 teams. That said, their midfield looks great and should be very fun to watch.
The Next Three
I see a sizable gap between the top four and the next three, though stranger things have happened and if things "click" for Tottenham or Liverpool, they certainly have the potential to finish top 4.
5. Liverpool (2014-15: 62 points, +6 goal differential)
Key transfers: Milner (in), Ings (in), Firmino (in), Clyne (in), Benteke (in), Gerrard (out), Sterling (out), Lambert (out)
As an Arsenal support who watched the team lose Henry, Fabregas, Nasri, Van Persie, etc. between 2006 and 2012 I have lots of sympathy for Liverpool. Losing Suarez set them up for their terrible start last year, and losing Sterling is another blow this summer. That said, I like what Liverpool has done with the cash and see them as a dark horse to return to CL play. Tough task for Brendan Rodgers to try to figure out how to get the best out of all of the new signings.
6. Tottenham (2014-15: 64 points, +5 goal differential)
Key transfers: Alderweireld (in)
Alderweireld should help solidify Tottenham's defense, which was their weakness last year (tied for 5th in most goals allowed). Tottenham are fairly strong in attack (5th in goals scored) so another year of Pochettino and another year of settling should help them as well. While a top-4 run would not surprise me, I don't think they have as much talent as any of the teams above them, which is why I have them sixth. It also remains to be seen over the next few years just how much a drain on their finances their new stadium will be, but that should not affect them very much in 2015-16.
7. Crystal Palace (2014-15: 48 points, -4 goal differential)
Key transfers: Cabaye (in), Sako (in), Wickham (in)
Probably more wishcasting than anything else, but I love the atmosphere at Selhurst Park and think they've added some good players - especially Cabaye.
I’d love to see Southampton carry on their winning ways, but they just keep losing key players – Schneiderlin and Clyne this summer after being fleeced each of the last two summers as well.
I expect Everton to have a bit of a bounce-back year, but the PL is shaping up to be significantly more competitive top-to-bottom, making it difficult for top-half (but not top-four) teams to differentiate themselves.
Relegation
Golden boot: Aguero (if he can stay healthy)
Defender of the year: Ivanovic - can't stand the guy, but he can ball
Young player of the year: Oxlade-Chamberlain - probably some wishcasting / Arsenal fan bias, but he seems primed to take the next step. Strong candidate for another injury, unfortunately.
Top Four
I see the top four teams as very close to each other. It's really difficult to determine where to place each team, and there's no order that would come as a surprise to me at the end of the year. That said, here's my best guess:
1. Cheslea (2014-15: 87 points, +41 goal differential)
Key transfers: Falcao (in), Begovic (in), Cech (out), Drogba (out)
They might have the best starting 11 in the league, or at minimum the best defensive six (DM+defenders+GK). Costa and Hazard are both in the top two or three at their positions and have the ability to score seemingly out of nowhere. But more than anything, I think Mourinho is in a class all his own when it comes to tactics. Chelsea have what it takes to grind out results and stay mostly consistent from the start of the year to the end. The big questions for Chelsea are (1) will Costa stay healthy? (2) do they have enough depth? They were extremely fortunate with injuries last year.
2. Arsenal (2014-15: 75 points, +35 goal differential)
Key transfers: Cech (in)
Even despite starting makeshift defensive formations for the first three months of last season and missing out on Coquelin until December, Arsenal had the third best defense last year by goals scored. Give the team a full year of a healthy Coquelin and Cech in goal and this might be the most solid defense Arsenal has had since the Invincibles era. Add in a healthy dose of confidence (4 wins, 2 losses, 3 draws vs Chelsea/City/United in the last year+) and I think the team is solidly in the mix unless injuries derail them yet again.
3. Manchester City (2014-15: 79 points, +45 goal differential)
Key transfers: Sterling (in), Delph (in), Milner (out)
City seem like a somewhat popular darkhorse to drop out of the top 4 this year, but I don't think that's very likely. Sure, if they start poorly or Aguero continues having constant injury niggles, the pressure might get to Pellegrini. But if City are healthy all year and get off to a hot start, I think they might actually be the best chance to prevent Chelsea from back-to-back titles. No question about the talent in the team and I think Sterling is a great addition and will play well with Aguero and Silva. Very high potential, but also a riskier choice than either Chelsea or Arsenal, and that's the only reason I have them third.
4. Manchester United (2014-15: 70 points, +25 goal differential)
Key transfers: Depay (in), Schweinsteiger (in), Schneiderlin (in), Robin van Persie (out), Falcao (out), Di Maria (out)
United have spent buckets of cash over the last three years and have 7th place and 4th place finishes to show for it. There's probably some pressure on Van Gaal to deliver immediate results, but despite the clear talent in the team, my guess is United will continue to have a few growing pains this year. Even if United hang on to De Gea and their defense remains as strong as it was last year, where will the goals come from? Rooney is still a top striker but the supporting cast is a bit lacking both in talent and depth compared to the other top 4 teams. That said, their midfield looks great and should be very fun to watch.
The Next Three
I see a sizable gap between the top four and the next three, though stranger things have happened and if things "click" for Tottenham or Liverpool, they certainly have the potential to finish top 4.
5. Liverpool (2014-15: 62 points, +6 goal differential)
Key transfers: Milner (in), Ings (in), Firmino (in), Clyne (in), Benteke (in), Gerrard (out), Sterling (out), Lambert (out)
As an Arsenal support who watched the team lose Henry, Fabregas, Nasri, Van Persie, etc. between 2006 and 2012 I have lots of sympathy for Liverpool. Losing Suarez set them up for their terrible start last year, and losing Sterling is another blow this summer. That said, I like what Liverpool has done with the cash and see them as a dark horse to return to CL play. Tough task for Brendan Rodgers to try to figure out how to get the best out of all of the new signings.
6. Tottenham (2014-15: 64 points, +5 goal differential)
Key transfers: Alderweireld (in)
Alderweireld should help solidify Tottenham's defense, which was their weakness last year (tied for 5th in most goals allowed). Tottenham are fairly strong in attack (5th in goals scored) so another year of Pochettino and another year of settling should help them as well. While a top-4 run would not surprise me, I don't think they have as much talent as any of the teams above them, which is why I have them sixth. It also remains to be seen over the next few years just how much a drain on their finances their new stadium will be, but that should not affect them very much in 2015-16.
7. Crystal Palace (2014-15: 48 points, -4 goal differential)
Key transfers: Cabaye (in), Sako (in), Wickham (in)
Probably more wishcasting than anything else, but I love the atmosphere at Selhurst Park and think they've added some good players - especially Cabaye.
I’d love to see Southampton carry on their winning ways, but they just keep losing key players – Schneiderlin and Clyne this summer after being fleeced each of the last two summers as well.
I expect Everton to have a bit of a bounce-back year, but the PL is shaping up to be significantly more competitive top-to-bottom, making it difficult for top-half (but not top-four) teams to differentiate themselves.
Relegation
- Leicester City fired their manager and hired Claudio Ranieri less than a month ago, and one has to wonder how long he'll last.
In a year when PL payouts rose and all sorts of teams started spending some serious coin, Aston Villa lost Benteke, Delph and Weimann. The combination of losing three key players + better players on other teams, and the fact that Villa barely stayed up this year, means I think they’re going down this year.
Norwich City is my third pick, but don't have any great reasoning behind it
Golden boot: Aguero (if he can stay healthy)
Defender of the year: Ivanovic - can't stand the guy, but he can ball
Young player of the year: Oxlade-Chamberlain - probably some wishcasting / Arsenal fan bias, but he seems primed to take the next step. Strong candidate for another injury, unfortunately.
