Projecting Sizemore

Status
Not open for further replies.

bosox1025

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
2,426
So, what say SoSH about Grady Sizemore's prospects for the upcoming season? The reports have been glowing -- aggressive on the bases, seeing the ball well off the bat, and most importantly, feeling good day after day.
 
I realize this post likely ensures he'll be injured by nightfall, but it's getting hard to not be at least a little excited at what we might have here.
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,423
Not here
bosox1025 said:
So, what say SoSH about Grady Sizemore's prospects for the upcoming season? The reports have been glowing -- aggressive on the bases, seeing the ball well off the bat, and most importantly, feeling good day after day.
 
I realize this post likely ensures he'll be injured by nightfall, but it's getting hard to not be at least a little excited at what we might have here.
 
Well, something is getting hard.
 

nattysez

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2010
8,436
bosox1025 said:
So, what say SoSH about Grady Sizemore's prospects for the upcoming season? The reports have been glowing -- aggressive on the bases, seeing the ball well off the bat, and most importantly, feeling good day after day.
 
I realize this post likely ensures he'll be injured by nightfall, but it's getting hard to not be at least a little excited at what we might have here.
 
Well, he's feeling good day after day because the team hasn't had him play on back-to-back days yet.  But so far so good.  Brian MacPherson seems impressed.
 
Edit:  This is surprising, from Tim Britton, talking about Sizemore:
 
 
https://twitter.com/TimBritton/status/442057148676452352
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
So going back to the question earlier in the thread about a guy similar to Sizemore (missing multiple seasons/ losing multiple seasons to injury)
Not much I could find.
One close one is Chris Carpenter, who basically lost two full seasons (6 IP, 15 IP), then coming back at age 34 with the best season of his career.
Griffey Jr had a stretch in his 30s of injury plague seasons, then came back in his mid-30s with a nice season, then a couple ok seasons before he shut it down.
Jose Rijo missed 6 years with 5 Tommy John injuries to return at age 36 to put up 17 very good innings. He was shitty the next year and then retired.
That's about it for multiple lost seasons due to injury not war and a comeback in their 30s
 

MoGator71

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
5,117
Cellar-Door said:
So going back to the question earlier in the thread about a guy similar to Sizemore (missing multiple seasons/ losing multiple seasons to injury)
Not much I could find.
One close one is Chris Carpenter, who basically lost two full seasons (6 IP, 15 IP), then coming back at age 34 with the best season of his career.
Griffey Jr had a stretch in his 30s of injury plague seasons, then came back in his mid-30s with a nice season, then a couple ok seasons before he shut it down.
Jose Rijo missed 6 years with 5 Tommy John injuries to return at age 36 to put up 17 very good innings. He was shitty the next year and then retired.
That's about it for multiple lost seasons due to injury not war and a comeback in their 30s
 
Not surprisingly most of them are pitchers. There's really no reason why he wouldn't be a productive player if he's healthy enough to play.
 

The Mort Report

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 5, 2007
6,904
Concord
But, and I'm probably going to be digitally shot for not doing any research, I cant think of any players that were THAT productive that young, and making a come back in his early 30's.  This isn't a guy trying to come back at 38.  Its also not like surgery these days means you wont regain full strength.  I live in a ski town, I know 5-10 people who have surgeries on their knees every year, and it usually takes 2 years for them to fully feel comfortable again, but they get normal motion and strength back like nothing happened.  These people also would rather slam a PBR than stretch.  I know no one can find a comp of someone coming back from their careers being derailed by injuries, but I feel like this is a unique case.  I'm not saying he will make an impact, but I don't think he really has a comp
 

bob burda

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,549
The Mort Report said:
But, and I'm probably going to be digitally shot for not doing any research, I cant think of any players that were THAT productive that young, and making a come back in his early 30's.  This isn't a guy trying to come back at 38.  Its also not like surgery these days means you wont regain full strength.  I live in a ski town, I know 5-10 people who have surgeries on their knees every year, and it usually takes 2 years for them to fully feel comfortable again, but they get normal motion and strength back like nothing happened.  These people also would rather slam a PBR than stretch.  I know no one can find a comp of someone coming back from their careers being derailed by injuries, but I feel like this is a unique case.  I'm not saying he will make an impact, but I don't think he really has a comp
Ruben Sierra is the only player I can think of as fitting your paradigm. 
 
He went from being a .800 to near .800 OPS player in his 20s to being a .600-700 OPS/useless player from age 30-34, getting fewer than 200 ABs in those terrible seasons. I'm not exactly sure, but the story I remember hearing was that he became a 'roided out overbulked muscle bound guy who had to lose some weight and muscle to get some of his skills back. I'm assuming there were injuries associated with this. He played his entire age 33 season in the Atlantic League - but he came back as a somewhat useful player, for four seasons, starting at age 35. 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=sierra001rub
 
I will forever remember him grounding out to Pokey to finish the MFY's in '04.    
 

Mike F

Mayor of Fort Myers
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 13, 2000
2,068
Based on the limited times that I've seen Sizemore, he's looked pretty good. Although until yesterday 3/7 he seemed to be holding back on the bases. Yesterday he really hit 1st base in full stride looking for two on any bobble in the OF. He pulled up smoothly as the ball was fielded cleanly. John Farrell had said that GS wouldn't be stealing any bases for a while but GS took off for 2nd on a catcher's slightly mishandled pitch. Clearly beating the throw. Then he was running full out on a 2 out fly ball hitting 3rd smoothly, to no avail except demonstrating base running ability.
He had an infield hit to open the game so I expect all Iglasis denigrators to howl. Later had a sharp line single as cited above.
Non of this says anything about his ability to play regularly and remain healthy but it sure is looking as though the skills are still there.
BTW he and Nava had an Alphonse/Gaston moment in R/C on a fly ball in a very high sun sky. Nava saved the situation with a lunging catch. More the sun and wind to blame than the players.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
58,909
San Andreas Fault
Mike F said:
He had an infield hit to open the game so I expect all Iglasis denigrators to howl. Later had a sharp line single as cited above.
Non of this says anything about his ability to play regularly and remain healthy but it sure is looking as though the skills are still there.
BTW he and Nava had an Alphonse/Gaston moment in R/C on a fly ball in a very high sun sky. Nava saved the situation with a lunging catch. More the sun and wind to blame than the players.
Sizemore's the guy we used to see as a ceiling for Jacoby. I hope he contributes a lot to the Sox this year. I love the Alphonse/Gaston usage. Don't hear it much anymore.
 
 

Montana Fan

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 18, 2000
8,882
Twin Bridges, Mt.
Thanks Mike. He hasn't played more than 106 games since '08. If we can get 100 - 120 games out of him at a .788 OPS (his '09 numbers) then he'll sure get playing time.
 

The Gray Eagle

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
16,725
Since the thread title is asking for a projection, what the hell I'll take a stab at projecting the unprojectable:
65 games, 240 plate appearances, 260/340/440. 2 DL trips, 8 HRs.
Passable defense in CF, good defense in LF and RF. (He's only ever played CF in his major league career. Fielding Bible has him as -9 in in only 479 innings in 2011, but right around average for the rest of his career.)
 
Hoping, not projecting, that his best play comes in big games in October.
 

ji oh

New Member
Mar 18, 2003
271
The Gray Eagle said:
Since the thread title is asking for a projection, what the hell I'll take a stab at projecting the unprojectable:
65 games, 240 plate appearances, 260/340/440. 2 DL trips, 8 HRs.
Passable defense in CF, good defense in LF and RF. (He's only ever played CF in his major league career. Fielding Bible has him as -9 in in only 479 innings in 2011, but right around average for the rest of his career.)
 
Hoping, not projecting, that his best play comes in big games in October.
 
That projection = Fred Lynn at 33, who hit 263/339/449 but played more games (124), all in CF.  The year before and after he was better.
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
15,672
Al Zarilla said:
Sizemore's the guy we used to see as a ceiling for Jacoby. 
 
 
It's amazing that Ellsbury has had only one season of offensive production that matches (and of course it exceeded) Sizemore's four best seasons.  Sizemore is one year older.
 

meadow11

Active Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
40
PA
Just looking at the four years (2005-08) that he was healthy and playing regularly, he was a stud.  
 
160 games/year
180 hits
41 doubles
27 hr's
281 avg
867 ops
6.0 war
 
I'm not suggesting that he will play 160 games this year, but at his age (31) a return to his ability level is not out of the question.  
And if so, he could really help out this offense at a fraction of Ellsbury's cost and give JBJ another year of development.  
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,402
Tony C was 24/25 when he came back from missing more than a season's worth of games to hit 20 HRs and 36 HRs in consecutive seasons.
 

Average Reds

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 24, 2007
35,330
Southwestern CT
meadow11 said:
Just looking at the four years (2005-08) that he was healthy and playing regularly, he was a stud.  
 
160 games/year
180 hits
41 doubles
27 hr's
281 avg
867 ops
6.0 war
 
I'm not suggesting that he will play 160 games this year, but at his age (31) a return to his ability level is not out of the question.  
And if so, he could really help out this offense at a fraction of Ellsbury's cost and give JBJ another year of development.  
 
It's extraordinarily unlikely that he'll even approach his past numbers, but yeah, it's worth remembering that Sizemore was one of the best players in the game for a good chunk of the last decade.
 

KiltedFool

has a terminal case of creeping sharia
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2005
2,400
Average Reds said:
 
It's extraordinarily unlikely that he'll even approach his past numbers, but yeah, it's worth remembering that Sizemore was one of the best players in the game for a good chunk of the last decade.
 
Agreed, he said, looking at the Sizemore jersey in the closet.
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,423
Not here
meadow11 said:
And if so, he could really help out this offense at a fraction of Ellsbury's cost and give JBJ another year of development.  
 
That's only valuable if another year of development makes him a better player and it isn't clear to me that this is the case.
 

plucy

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 2, 2006
426
a rock and a hard place
Rasputin said:
That's only valuable if another year of development makes him a better player and it isn't clear to me that this is the case.
I agree. Perhaps a three way job share of CF and RF would protect Sizemore and Victorino, and give JBJ 400-500 ML ab in 14. I prefer multitalented OF's v. good hitting backup 1B/ph (Carp).
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,423
Not here
plucy said:
I agree. Perhaps a three way job share of CF and RF would protect Sizemore and Victorino, and give JBJ 400-500 ML ab in 14. I prefer multitalented OF's v. good hitting backup 1B/ph (Carp).
 
I think in an ideal world, Sizemore takes over left.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,510
Rogers Park
Rasputin said:
 
That's only valuable if another year of development makes him a better player and it isn't clear to me that this is the case.
 
I think the actual value in moving Sizemore ahead of Bradley on the depth chart is the vaunted deep depth, and I say this as a huge Bradley fan. 
 
Sizemore is unlikely to be healthy, it is true. But Victorino is also a health and (IMO) performance risk. It's not at all clear he can hit right handed pitchers if right handed pitchers stop hitting him. A startling portion of his vsRHP asRHH production was HBP, a full 1/4 (11 HBP against 30 hits and 3 BB) of his times on base. That doesn't scream sustainable success to me. 
 
So Bradley could have a role spelling those guys — Sizemore when he needs time, and Victorino against tough righties. I'm imagining each of them playing 2 games out of three, more or less. 
 
This plan would raise other roster questions; it's hard to square it with having a platoon in LF and a backup 1B/LF/DH. 
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,348
Pretty certain that one of Nava, Carp or Gomes will be dealt before opening day.  Most likely Carp.  I think it could be a big miss on a major offensive talent for a few years (.850+ OPS) but it suits the current needs and hopefully Ben will bring in a big slugger soon.
Sizemore I don't see being a starter as much as the rotating utility OF'er.  JBJ will be given at least 6 weeks to show something on the offensive side.  
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,423
Not here
nvalvo said:
 
I think the actual value in moving Sizemore ahead of Bradley on the depth chart is the vaunted deep depth, and I say this as a huge Bradley fan. 
 
Sizemore is unlikely to be healthy, it is true. But Victorino is also a health and (IMO) performance risk. It's not at all clear he can hit right handed pitchers if right handed pitchers stop hitting him. A startling portion of his vsRHP asRHH production was HBP, a full 1/4 (11 HBP against 30 hits and 3 BB) of his times on base. That doesn't scream sustainable success to me. 
 
So Bradley could have a role spelling those guys — Sizemore when he needs time, and Victorino against tough righties. I'm imagining each of them playing 2 games out of three, more or less. 
 
This plan would raise other roster questions; it's hard to square it with having a platoon in LF and a backup 1B/LF/DH. 
 
Sizemore could back up left and right while being the "every day" starter in left, too, not that I think he's remotely going to play every day. When those three are out there, we'd have a tremendous defensive outfield, and that's something I covet.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,246
Trotsky said:
Pretty certain that one of Nava, Carp or Gomes will be dealt before opening day.  Most likely Carp.  I think it could be a big miss on a major offensive talent for a few years (.850+ OPS) but it suits the current needs and hopefully Ben will bring in a big slugger soon.
Sizemore I don't see being a starter as much as the rotating utility OF'er.  JBJ will be given at least 6 weeks to show something on the offensive side.  
 
 
 
 
I dont see any of those 3 moving before opening day. Unless there's some huge return, the Sox don't often (not in the last 10 years?) trade quality depth just to thin a roster jam.  IF Sizemore shows he's healthy and that there's a reasonable probability he will stay that way (he hasn't even played 2 days in a row in ST, has he?) they will resolve the roster jam either by using someone's option (JBJ) or by giving Sizemore another few weeks of extended ST or a DL trip to start the season.  No one will leave the organization before May 15.
 

Mighty Joe Young

The North remembers
SoSH Member
Sep 14, 2002
8,401
Halifax, Nova Scotia , Canada
joe dokes said:
 
I dont see any of those 3 moving before opening day. Unless there's some huge return, the Sox don't often (not in the last 10 years?) trade quality depth just to thin a roster jam.  IF Sizemore shows he's healthy and that there's a reasonable probability he will stay that way (he hasn't even played 2 days in a row in ST, has he?) they will resolve the roster jam either by using someone's option (JBJ) or by giving Sizemore another few weeks of extended ST or a DL trip to start the season.  No one will leave the organization before May 15.
 
I would be echoing this sentiment. Given his history I just can't see getting rid of Carp based on Sizemore's ST performance (health and production).  Likewise I can't see them sending down Bradley - mainly because there aren't many (practically none in fact) scenarios where Sizemore is a better option in CF than Bradley.  
 
I'd say it's xST for Sizemore until May - then a 2/3 week rehab stint ... then the roster can be sorted out.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
joe dokes said:
 
IF Sizemore shows he's healthy and that there's a reasonable probability he will stay that way (he hasn't even played 2 days in a row in ST, has he?) they will resolve the roster jam either by using someone's option (JBJ) or by giving Sizemore another few weeks of extended ST or a DL trip to start the season.  No one will leave the organization before May 15.
 
JBJ may be the most likely victim, but we shouldn't forget that Nava, too, has an option left.
 
The other wrinkle here is Brentz, who is 25 and looking pretty ready in ST. I don't expect him to beat anybody out for an Opening Day roster slot, but if he stays hot he might complicate the thinking about (1) who comes up when there's an injury opening (especially if the injury is to a corner OF), or (2) who to trade if they decide to trade somebody. If Brentz is really ready to contribute on the ML level, then Gomes becomes a shade more expendable.
 

TheoShmeo

Skrub's sympathy case
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
12,890
Boston, NY
Savin Hillbilly said:
 
JBJ may be the most likely victim, but we shouldn't forget that Nava, too, has an option left.
 
The other wrinkle here is Brentz, who is 25 and looking pretty ready in ST. I don't expect him to beat anybody out for an Opening Day roster slot, but if he stays hot he might complicate the thinking about (1) who comes up when there's an injury opening (especially if the injury is to a corner OF), or (2) who to trade if they decide to trade somebody. If Brentz is really ready to contribute on the ML level, then Gomes becomes a shade more expendable.
Perhaps but JF seems to be a true believer in Gomes' value to the team. 
 
Farrell talked the Gomes talk last season and in the aftermath of the WS, and clearly demonstrated his faith in the player in the playoffs by running him out there repeatedly when the book, and many posters here, cried for Nava.  I have a lot of trouble seeing Farrell sign off on jettisoning Gomes before his contract expires. 
 

Mighty Joe Young

The North remembers
SoSH Member
Sep 14, 2002
8,401
Halifax, Nova Scotia , Canada
Another thing to consider is that Sizemore is on a one year contract .. the Sox have no vested interest in recovering Sizemore's career other than what they can get out of him this year - especially at the expense of a year of development if JBJ is left languishing in Pawtucket , or , worse, a part time player in Boston.. 
 

TheoShmeo

Skrub's sympathy case
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
12,890
Boston, NY
Then again, if they think that Sizemore is a much safer bet than Bradley to produce this year -- and his past record of success suggests that he very well could be -- they might be willing to put Bradley off for a year given the present uncertainty at 3B and, to a lesser extent, SS.  To be clear, I know that they view Bogaerts as a future star, but the fact remains that he's a rookie and still represents something of an unknown over the course of a full season at the major league level.  With a few question marks already in the line-up, I could understand Farrell opting to see what they have in Sizemore for the first part of the season before turning to JBJ on a regular basis.   
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,510
Rogers Park
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Another thing to consider is that Sizemore is on a one year contract .. the Sox have no vested interest in recovering Sizemore's career other than what they can get out of him this year - especially at the expense of a year of development if JBJ is left languishing in Pawtucket , or , worse, a part time player in Boston.. 
 
I don't think this is true. If Boston's training staff can get Sizemore back on track, he'll likely be pretty interested in sticking around. 
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
58,909
San Andreas Fault
joe dokes said:
 
I dont see any of those 3 moving before opening day. Unless there's some huge return, the Sox don't often (not in the last 10 years?) trade quality depth just to thin a roster jam.  IF Sizemore shows he's healthy and that there's a reasonable probability he will stay that way (he hasn't even played 2 days in a row in ST, has he?) they will resolve the roster jam either by using someone's option (JBJ) or by giving Sizemore another few weeks of extended ST or a DL trip to start the season.  No one will leave the organization before May 15.
Supposed to happen today (he starts again after starting yesterday). Split squad today.
 

Niastri

Member
SoSH Member
The dream scenario for the Sox and Sizemore is that he turns back from pumpkin to carriage and hits like his pre injury years.

Then the Sox tag him with a QO right after the next parade, while pictures of he and Napoli shirtless on Landsdowne circulate the internet.

The front office has dreams and probabilities, as a fan I can indulge in both.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,246
We were bouncing around comps for awhile. None may have Sizemore's panoply of different injuries -- as opposed t one thing that has to heal -- but another "missed 2 years guy" is Jim Eisenreich, who seemed on his way to rookie stardom, but could play only sporadically for 2 years and missed two more while trying to get his Tourette's medication straightened out.  I was sitting in the Fenway grandstand while he was being tormented by ignorant CF fans for this game (the tormenting was not revealed til sometime later):
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/1982.shtml
 
This was about the 4th in a row from which he had to be removed. He was shut down for the season a short time later.  His game logs from '82 tell a sad story, which has been frequently written about.  Eventually he came back to have a solid career.  Not a perfect comp due to age and injury types, but from a "got past the layoff," it fits.
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eisenji01.shtml
 

Hoplite

New Member
Oct 26, 2013
1,116
62 games, 164 plate appearances, 150 at bats, 23 runs, 38 hits, 4 doubles, 1 triple, 7 home runs, 23 RBI, 1 SB, 0 CS, 11 BB
 

Ramon AC

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 19, 2002
3,234
What?
Hoplite said:
62 games, 164 plate appearances, 150 at bats, 23 runs, 38 hits, 4 doubles, 1 triple, 7 home runs, 23 RBI, 1 SB, 0 CS, 11 BB
That was exactly my thought, too.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
TheoShmeo said:
Then again, if they think that Sizemore is a much safer bet than Bradley to produce this year -- and his past record of success suggests that he very well could be -- they might be willing to put Bradley off for a year given the present uncertainty at 3B and, to a lesser extent, SS.  To be clear, I know that they view Bogaerts as a future star, but the fact remains that he's a rookie and still represents something of an unknown over the course of a full season at the major league level.  With a few question marks already in the line-up, I could understand Farrell opting to see what they have in Sizemore for the first part of the season before turning to JBJ on a regular basis.   
 
Is this really less true of Sizemore than it is of JBJ? I don't see it. Yes, he has a track record of ML success, but that was then, this is now.
 
I think what will tip the balance in Sizemore's direction, if that's how it ends up, is not that he's any less of a question mark than JBJ, but simply that JBJ can be optioned to Pawtucket and he can't.
 

Trlicek's Whip

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 8, 2009
5,607
New York City
Savin Hillbilly said:
Simply that JBJ can be optioned to Pawtucket and he can't.
 
Cut and dried, here it is. JBJ will contribute and play, but Sizemore breaks all ties with JBJ (if there's ever a choice between them) as long as he's healthy. 
 
Upthread someone mentioned Nava's option. He's got two and a half seasons with BOS is 31 and a late-bloomer, so I don't think it's a 50/50 choice between him and JBJ getting sent down either since he's "veteran" adjacent.
 

TheoShmeo

Skrub's sympathy case
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
12,890
Boston, NY
Savin Hillbilly said:
 
Is this really less true of Sizemore than it is of JBJ? I don't see it. Yes, he has a track record of ML success, but that was then, this is now.
 
I think what will tip the balance in Sizemore's direction, if that's how it ends up, is not that he's any less of a question mark than JBJ, but simply that JBJ can be optioned to Pawtucket and he can't.
I don't so easily discount that track record.  No doubt, Sizemore has been on the sidelines for a long time and there is no guaranty that he can snap back into his former self.  But he has at least shown that he has within him the skills and ability to thrive at this level, no small thing.  JBJ has never shown that and didn't exactly tear it up at AAA last year, either.  Now Bradley may of course prosper with the Sox if given the chance, but if Sizemore has a good spring, his past success in Cleveland will, I think, weigh into the equation.  That's not to say that I don't agree that the flexibility to send Bradley down isn't also a factor.  I just don't think it's as binary as you are seemingly suggesting.
 

Mighty Joe Young

The North remembers
SoSH Member
Sep 14, 2002
8,401
Halifax, Nova Scotia , Canada
TheoShmeo said:
I don't so easily discount that track record.  No doubt, Sizemore has been on the sidelines for a long time and there is no guaranty that he can snap back into his former self.  But he has at least shown that he has within him the skills and ability to thrive at this level, no small thing.  JBJ has never shown that and didn't exactly tear it up at AAA last year, either.  Now Bradley may of course prosper with the Sox if given the chance, but if Sizemore has a good spring, his past success in Cleveland will, I think, weigh into the equation.  That's not to say that I don't agree that the flexibility to send Bradley down isn't also a factor.  I just don't think it's as binary as you are seemingly suggesting.
 
Madness
 
Lets say Sizemore puts up an .800 ops .. In your opinion, considering his defense, how bad would JBJ have to be before Sizemore is a better option? Even if Sizemore IS a better option in CF I think there's real harm in optioning JBJ again - I don't see that another year of development is going to be beneficial. He's not going to learn to hit major league pitching in Pawtucket. 
 
Put Bradley in CF and leave him alone .. let him get 500 ABs and live with the consequences. His defense alone will make him a decent player.
 
If Sizemore is healthy and productive after an extensive stay in extended spring training and a lengthy rehab at AAA then you make the roster decision (one of Nava/Carp/Gomes will have to go - probably Carp) - mind you he still has to be a better option than these guys as well.
 

TheoShmeo

Skrub's sympathy case
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
12,890
Boston, NY
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
 
Madness
 
Lets say Sizemore puts up an .800 ops .. In your opinion, considering his defense, how bad would JBJ have to be before Sizemore is a better option? Even if Sizemore IS a better option in CF I think there's real harm in optioning JBJ again - I don't see that another year of development is going to be beneficial. He's not going to learn to hit major league pitching in Pawtucket. 
 
Put Bradley in CF and leave him alone .. let him get 500 ABs and live with the consequences. His defense alone will make him a decent player.
 
If Sizemore is healthy and productive after an extensive stay in extended spring training and a lengthy rehab at AAA then you make the roster decision (one of Nava/Carp/Gomes will have to go - probably Carp) - mind you he still has to be a better option than these guys as well.
First, my initial point was not about who should start.  It was about what I thought Farrell would want.  And all things considered, if Sizemore looks something like the Cleveland Sizemore in Spring Training, I think that JF will want to give him the job to start the season.  As we know, that doesn't mean it will be his job for the entire year.  But between what they might have in Sizemore, JBJ not having produced in his limited time in Boston or overwhelmingly in Pawtucket last year, and Bradley's options, I think they'll start off that way with the full knowledge that Bradley is just down the road in case Grady gets hurt or peters out. 
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23,721
Miami (oh, Miami!)
TheoShmeo said:
First, my initial point was not about who should start.  It was about what I thought Farrell would want.  And all things considered, if Sizemore looks something like the Cleveland Sizemore in Spring Training, I think that JF will want to give him the job to start the season.  As we know, that doesn't mean it will be his job for the entire year.  But between what they might have in Sizemore, JBJ not having produced in his limited time in Boston or overwhelmingly in Pawtucket last year, and Bradley's options, I think they'll start off that way with the full knowledge that Bradley is just down the road in case Grady gets hurt or peters out. 
 
It's sort of chicken-egg though.  
 
If Sizemore reproduces his best Cleveland year, in terms of his offensive raw talent/rate stats at the beginning of the year, you play him all year until he breaks (he's on a one year deal, essentially a make-good contract.)  If Sizemore starts replicating his worst Cleveland year, you bench him or see if he'll opt to the minors, or DL him, or trade him for a bucket of balls.  If he's sort of good, making him a wash option for the OF, you still probably sit or trade him, unless there are injuries or performance issues regarding Vic, Nava, JBJ, Gomes, AND the AAA OFs are showing nothing. 
 
Sizemore has a decent chance of putting up good numbers, but unless there's an injury, I doubt the sox will give him a lot of time to do that in the majors.  
 
He has a better chance of sticking if his defense dictates him being in games.  But that's contingent on JBJ/Vic injuries and under performance. 
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
TheoShmeo said:
I don't so easily discount that track record.  No doubt, Sizemore has been on the sidelines for a long time and there is no guaranty that he can snap back into his former self.
 
In fact, there's a near-guarantee that he can't snap back into his former self.
 
"That was then, this is now" wasn't just a statement about the injury and the uncertainty of recovery from it. It was also a statement about the difference between a guy's age 24-to-26 value and his age 31 value. That difference wouldn't necessarily be large under normal circumstances, but it would very rarely be positive. In projecting Sizemore I would take it as a given that even if he had never been injured, if he had been a model of health and playing 150-160 games a year this whole time, he still wouldn't be as good a player now as he was in 2007-08. The uncertain injury recovery adds another layer of indeterminate value loss, and the two-year layoff yet another.
 
A rational-optimist projection might be a 20% K rate, 12% walk rate, .300 BABIP and .200 ISO. That would add up to about a .260/.360/.460 line.
 
A rational-pessimist projection might change those numbers to 25%/10%/.285/.175. That would come out to around .230/.315/.405.
 
Splitting the difference gives you .245/.338/.433. I'm going to fall a little on the pessimistic side of that: .235/.330/.420.
 

TheoShmeo

Skrub's sympathy case
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
12,890
Boston, NY
Savin Hillbilly said:
 
In fact, there's a near-guarantee that he can't snap back into his former self.
 
"That was then, this is now" wasn't just a statement about the injury and the uncertainty of recovery from it. It was also a statement about the difference between a guy's age 24-to-26 value and his age 31 value. That difference wouldn't necessarily be large under normal circumstances, but it would very rarely be positive. In projecting Sizemore I would take it as a given that even if he had never been injured, if he had been a model of health and playing 150-160 games a year this whole time, he still wouldn't be as good a player now as he was in 2007-08. The uncertain injury recovery adds another layer of indeterminate value loss, and the two-year layoff yet another.
 
A rational-optimist projection might be a 20% K rate, 12% walk rate, .300 BABIP and .200 ISO. That would add up to about a .260/.360/.460 line.
 
A rational-pessimist projection might change those numbers to 25%/10%/.285/.175. That would come out to around .230/.315/.405.
 
Splitting the difference gives you .245/.338/.433. I'm going to fall a little on the pessimistic side of that: .235/.330/.420.
What are your projections for JBJ and what do you base them on?  No snark intended there. 
 
To be clear re Sizemore, I'm not expecting him to be what he was earlier. I just see a player with an ability to succeed at this level and more of a question about that with JBJ.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23,721
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Two related points:
 
1) There were a lot of guys who came back after military service in WWII (Ted, famously).  So while there's not a direct injury comp, they didn't face ML pitching for a couple of years. 
 
2) Sizemore may not have much of a book on him - he's been out for a couple of years.  If Sizemore has made any kind of change to his swing, he may get a hot start together. 
 

metaprosthesis

Member
SoSH Member
May 22, 2008
199
Central NJ via Western Mass
TheoShmeo said:
... JBJ has never shown that and didn't exactly tear it up at AAA last year, either...
 
 
TheoShmeo said:
... JBJ not having produced... overwhelmingly in Pawtucket last year...
 
Rational people can disagree on what it means to produce "overwhelmingly" at AAA, but JBJ's line at Pawtucket in 2013 (.275/.374/.469/.842) is better than you're selling it here.  It's absolutely true that he was not impressive in his 107 MLB PAs, but his AAA performance last year, combined with his defensive skills, suggests a player who is ready to contribute at the MLB level, now.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.