when was Lowe “available”
6th round pick by Minnesota, traded to the Pats
As far as I can tell, he’s never been available let alone considered a “good swing”
Projecting the 53
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6th round pick by Minnesota, traded to the Pats
As far as I can tell, he’s never been available let alone considered a “good swing”
Who is...wait for it... on IR.
Who was it that said that said (Justin Herron's mom's account?) that the Pats would regret trading him away?
There is a lot to get to on this, but let's start with how they evaluate kickers, then we can talk about overall talent levels, and then we can look at the drafting aspect.
First, I don't think it's in evidence that the BB-era Patriots are great at identifying veteran kickers. Back in 2010, Gostkowski was injured, and they signed Shayne Graham, who did go 12-12 on FGs the rest of the way, but also missed 2 XPs when they used to be from 20 yards. Oh, and they didn't let him attempt more than a 41-yd FG in the 8 games he kicked, so Graham was not challenged on distance at all. Then, in 2019, when Gostkowski went down with his hip injury and went on IR, they signed Mike Nugent. Nugent promptly went 5-8 on FGs, and they brought in Folk to replace him. Folk kicked for one week, had an appendectomy, and they thought so little of Nugent that they brought in...Kai Forbath for a week, who went 1-1 on FGs, but 1-2 on XPs, and then they brought Folk back after he was healthy again and he kicked for the rest of that season and 2020-2022. But I think we can probably say that Folk is the lone Pats veteran kicker win of the 2010s, with Graham and Nugent being clear losses, and Forbath not really being good but also was only there for a one-week fill-in. But it's not a great track record there either.
Now, I haven't looked at the league as a whole to see what the stats are on how often teams whiff on new kickers. But I don't think the Pats are uniquely bad in this regard. I think everyone is bad, because no one actually understands the position, there are more quality kickers today than there are spots in the league, and so the entire approach is basically throw kickers at the wall to see if they stick, and if they splat instead of stick, then you throw another one out there because the marginal cost is next to nothing. So why would you invest time and effort in identifying and training kickers if you can just get a new one who is probably going to be pretty close to league-average anyway?
Plus, even really good kickers typically have a ton of variance to their performance from year to year. Outside of Justin Tucker, who is one of the two best kickers to ever walk on the planet, even really good kickers (like the other guy in the top 2) will see their performance vary from like 80% of FGs made to 95% of kicks made in any given year. Heck, even Tucker had one year in the low-80s. It can be weather, it can be distance, it can be injury, it can be any of these things, and so there's really no reason to spend time or money on kickers because the best guy in the league can be the 12th guy in the league next year. See Harrison Butker's 2022 performance.
So the data pretty clearly shows that kickers are mostly fungible, and we probably have like 40-50 kickers who are NFL-caliber at any particular time. Given the fact that even the best guys in the league can turn into average kickers for a year or two or more, what's the point in investing any time or money identifying talent and coaching it up? Most kickers (even in the NFL) have an outside coach they work with, who they probably send film to for any kind of mechanical adjustments they need. So if you're an NFL franchise, what are are you going to do to improve performance that the kicker isn't already working on?
Which brings us back to the Pats. The biggest mistake they made was not trying new rookie kickers each of the past two years. It was drafting them. A decade ago, I basically planted my flag saying that NFL teams should never draft a kicker before round 4, and even then, it was probably a waste of a pick. Today, I don't think NFL teams should ever draft a kicker. Last year there were 3 drafted. The best performance from a drafted kicker was 84% on FGs from Jake Moody. Why am I wasting even marginal draft capital on a kicker who ranks 21st in accuracy? Sure, with variance, maybe he's a 95% kicker this year, but he also could be a 75% kicker. We have absolutely no idea! Like, what am I doing here? Obviously, Ryland was the worst kicker in the league, drafted one round after Moody, so it's more egregious.
And look, it's not like those picks are destined to turn into anything. But you need one thing in the draft, and that's chances at real NFL players. The Pats used two of those chances on a position where there is currently a surplus of players and huge yearly variance, and as such, they wasted two opportunities to bolster the roster otherwise, where they could likely get a kicker as a UDFA or veteran who could provide that level of performance while retaining the draft capital to use somewhere with more potential upside than a top-10 kicker who might turn into a middle-10 kicker the following year.
How would I approach kickers? If I didn't have a kicker, I'd sign two UDFAs a year until I found a guy who could hit in the mid-80s. I'd keep him on a cheap contract, and I would never spend more than 1.5% of my cap on a kicker because I can find someone else who can do a comparable job pretty easily. Like, do I want to be paying Jake Elliott 6M a year to hit 93% one year and 75% the next? Why do I need to do that?
But the other piece on this is that just like other positions, evaluating kickers is a combination of looking at the numbers, looking at the mechanics, and projecting what can come to be. One of my biggest misses was on Wil Lutz, who when he signed with the Saints, I said that I had no idea what the heck they were doing. Lutz's last two years in college he didn't even make 70% of kicks. But he had a monster leg, apparently had one of the best tryouts in the history of kicker tryouts, and then had a few great years with NO. I mean, I could totally see the Pats having a similar situation with Ryland, where they see a monster leg and decide to take a chance on him. Sometimes those chances Lutz, and sometimes they lose. The Pats lost. I don't blame them for trying, I blame them for wasting the draft capital when you don't need to spend it to get a Ryland each year. It's just not worth it.
Now, I hated Ryland's mechanics from the get-go. His swing has a bunch of power, but it's a whippy, windy, corkscrewing motion with a lot of moving parts, and so when things break, they break badly. That's what happened last year, and I'm sure he was in his head too. But evaluating mechanics is hard. I remember all the Roberto Aguayo hype from 8-9 years ago. I remember the first time I saw him kick. It was the most dynamic motion I have ever seen. I mean, the dude was literally airborne as he was kicking the ball because he exploded off his plant foot so strongly and so quickly. But that dynamism also broke his mechanics, because when the timing of his move went wrong, he started missing consistently to the same side, and could never get his timing back in the NFL, likely because of pressure and roster dynamics. He was one and done, and that was it. Because you don't stick with a kicker making 71% of his kicks.
I want a kicker with upright, front-to-back, inside-out mechanics with little wasted motion who has improved his performance on a yearly basis in college, and has a track record of making kicks in games after early misses. Even then, I'm rolling the dice, and I do not ever draft a kicker, because the upside is like 6 points a season, and the downside is that I miss out on Tom Brady, even if it's a 0.01% chance.
Sorry there are like 72 ideas in here that may not be in a coherent order, but I could probably break each paragraph into a separate post, but that would be like drafting a kicker, which is something we shouldn't do ever again.
I think it's more a long term play than anything else, and FWIW, Strange did play center for a game in college. But going forward, Andrews is 32 so the Patriots are going to need a replacement sooner rather than later.
I also don't think there is an obvious spot for Strange if/when he gets healthy. He was inconsistent as a rookie and has basically been injured for the past 13 months. He got hurt in camp, missed a few games early, returned and played through it, then got hurt again and hasn't been seen since. The Patriots strength on the line is in the interior. Andrews is a reliable center, Sow was decent as a rookie guard and should be solid. Onwenu is an elite guard if he plays there. If Onwenu plays at tackle then Robinson is the RG. He's been good in camp. Injuries (Sow is already hurt) and performance may sort things out by the time Strange is ready to return but at this point it doesn't seem like there's a spot for him. Might be a decent time to try to work on transitioning him to center for 2025.
Great post. Over the years, probably starting with Nick Lowery and continuing with "re-treads" like Folk, I have come around to the idea that place kickers are very much like relief pitchers. The very obvious difference that NFL teams only have 1 nothwithstanding. But relatively speaking, there are just very few of them worth breaking the bank (or draft capital) for.
I just want to say that was a fascinating read. If you don't mind me asking, what do you see in Joey Slye mechanically? He seems to have a pretty big leg, around 82% for his career which is kind of that middling sweet spot. Nick Folk was fun while he lasted, that was an incredible level of consistency.
I think he's pretty meh. He's in the back seat a lot, which is what causes him to spray the ball from side to side since he doesn't consistently follow through to the target. When he does follow through, the ball goes right where he wants it to, but when he's sitting back, it causes some spray to the right, and then he'll overcompensate by speeding up his leg and misses to the left. You could do worse, you could do better, but at least you didn't spend much to get him and you can replace him if he isn't performing.
Found it! Here is the initial post that set off the firestorm, foretelling the demise of Bill Belichick.
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2022-patriots-in-season-news-and-moves-thread.37392/page-3#post-5181342
SoSH hilarity ensues.
@IdiotKicker , thank you for the excellent long form post on kickers. If it's OK, there are 2 things you said that I did want to contest (with an understanding that I know nothing about kicker mechanics, scouting, etc.):
1.) Those years where the Pats had to scramble to find a Gostkowski replacement would seem to be evidence that kickers are not totally fungible, even outside the Top 2 or 3. I know in both cases, several available kickers were brought in for tryouts, and in the 2019 season the kicking game was a disaster between the time Ghost got hurt and Nick Folk seized the job. Yeah, the Pats found Folk, but they could have easily been SOL had he not been able to walk through that door.
Also, 2019 was a GFIN season as it was known to be Brady's last here, and the incremental value of a better kicker seems to go far beyond the 6 points for a team in that situation. 20% of NFL games are decided by scores of 3 or less, and Bill's boat has a different name if Adam Vinatieri did not walk through that door in 2001 (and possibly 2003 as well).
2.) Regarding the Pats drafting a kicker (and a punter) in 2023. The Pats did have three 4th rounders, four 6ths, and 9 picks in rounds 4-7 overall. In that portion of the draft, your realistic hope is to find a special teams contributor and backup. Especially as you get to the 6th and 7th round, where if you find a starter there it's gravy. And even on a bad team, there are only so many open roster spots for rookies. For every Onwenu, there are tons of Kevin Harris' and even more Tre Nixon's. So my argument is that using 2 of those 9 on kick specialists doesn't seem to be all that terrible of a use of resources.
Now, I do agree that Bill could have bundled some of those picks or moved them forward a year. However, it appears he took a quantity approach in that draft, which really is the best way to find a hidden gem that late in the draft. Not convinced there is a right answer there. It's also fair to wonder why he used a 4th on Ryland; he may have been there in the 5th (in which case they may have ended up with a better play than recently released Mafi) or even the 7th. I am just pushing back on it being a bad decision to use some draft capital there in all cases.
1.) Those years where the Pats had to scramble to find a Gostkowski replacement would seem to be evidence that kickers are not totally fungible, even outside the Top 2 or 3. I know in both cases, several available kickers were brought in for tryouts, and in the 2019 season the kicking game was a disaster between the time Ghost got hurt and Nick Folk seized the job. Yeah, the Pats found Folk, but they could have easily been SOL had he not been able to walk through that door.
Also, 2019 was a GFIN season as it was known to be Brady's last here, and the incremental value of a better kicker seems to go far beyond the 6 points for a team in that situation. 20% of NFL games are decided by scores of 3 or less, and Bill's boat has a different name if Adam Vinatieri did not walk through that door in 2001 (and possibly 2003 as well).
2.) Regarding the Pats drafting a kicker (and a punter) in 2023. The Pats did have three 4th rounders, four 6ths, and 9 picks in rounds 4-7 overall. In that portion of the draft, your realistic hope is to find a special teams contributor and backup. Especially as you get to the 6th and 7th round, where if you find a starter there it's gravy. And even on a bad team, there are only so many open roster spots for rookies. For every Onwenu, there are tons of Kevin Harris' and even more Tre Nixon's. So my argument is that using 2 of those 9 on kick specialists doesn't seem to be all that terrible of a use of resources.
Now, I do agree that Bill could have bundled some of those picks or moved them forward a year. However, it appears he took a quantity approach in that draft, which really is the best way to find a hidden gem that late in the draft. Not convinced there is a right answer there. It's also fair to wonder why he used a 4th on Ryland; he may have been there in the 5th (in which case they may have ended up with a better play than recently released Mafi) or even the 7th. I am just pushing back on it being a bad decision to use some draft capital there in all cases.
Great questions. My thoughts:
- BB has a penchant for going after older, more established kickers as emergency replacements who have mediocre track records but NFL experience, rather than targeting the younger guys who may have more upside but minimal experience. Nugent spent most of his career hovering around 80%, Graham floated around the mid-80s, and Folk even spent most of his early 30s around 80% accuracy aside from one year that was better. So I think BB wanted someone who had been there before, rather than going after guys who could potentially have upside but were younger. In 2019, as an example, they actually signed Younghoe Koo, who has been a really nice kicker for the last 5 years, but cut him in favor of Folk without him ever kicking in a game. They've both been pretty similar kickers now over the past 5 years, but they could have had Koo at 25 and instead went with Folk at 34. But there are almost always 10-20 kickers floating around with NFL talent, and the Pats actually had two in 2019 they could have gone with after Nugent, they just picked the older one because that's where BB seemed to want to live, aside from drafting kickers for some reason.
- In terms of the use of draft capital, using a day 3 pick on a kicker is probably a 3 out of 10 in terms of the severity of misuse of draft capital. It won't break a team on its own. Coupled with other poor draft management, it does exacerbate the issue, and it's something that's easily avoidable because you just don't need to do it. You can consistently find quality UDFAs who become good kickers. My count from 2023 leaders is that 15 out of the top 21 and 19 out of the 33 qualifying kickers in the NFL were UDFAs. If you want to be one of the teams that drafts kickers, you need to be able to prove that you have some kind of edge that gets you a kicker who is consistently hitting 90% of his kicks, because otherwise, there's pretty strong evidence that you can find even above-average kickers after the draft, and use those other chances on players with more potential upside in the late rounds, even if the expected value is still pretty close to zero.
Pats Pulpit has a look at recently cut guys who might be of interest. i like the idea of a big bodied TE if they're committed to running the ball, Parham and Latu sound like they'd fit that role. Cleveland's starting LT from last year has to be interesting to AVP too.
On D there's a couple space eater DTs in Ika and McCall who might help.
https://www.patspulpit.com/2024/8/28/24230036/patriots-nfl-roster-cuts-targets-waiver-wire-free-agency
On D there's a couple space eater DTs in Ika and McCall who might help.
https://www.patspulpit.com/2024/8/28/24230036/patriots-nfl-roster-cuts-targets-waiver-wire-free-agency
View: https://twitter.com/BrandonThornNFL/status/1828804310081077346
kinda cracked me up, Thorn noting some good IOL who got cut, someone asks him what about Tackles for the Patriots answer.... there are none, tackle depth is trash league-wide
kinda cracked me up, Thorn noting some good IOL who got cut, someone asks him what about Tackles for the Patriots answer.... there are none, tackle depth is trash league-wide
They claimed 4 players.
View: https://twitter.com/fieldyates/status/1828834612036129095?s=46&t=23orJRFkAhpzRtm4p3-oEw
View: https://twitter.com/fieldyates/status/1828834612036129095?s=46&t=23orJRFkAhpzRtm4p3-oEw
Dumb question, but this means that they have to release some players to get to 53, correct?
Been a few years since you could call Christian good. He was 76th on PFF rankings last year; Lowe was 79th. Somewhat better at pass pro, somewhat worse with run.
So looking through these guys we have:
Jacobs- undrafted rookie out of PSU - 8.47 RAS
Other Jacobs- undrafted free agent last year ou of USF, didn't play a snap, big athletic (8.41 RAS)
Johnson- 5th rounder in 2022 out of MO St. played at the end of the Colts rotation last year, 1 sack, 3 hits 30.5 PFF grade
THomas- lised as a tackle here, but has played mostly guard in his limited NFL time (also listed as a guard during draft process), 6th round pick in 2022, good RAS as a guard, drops to pretty mid (7.95) as a tackle.
Edit- actually looks like Thomas while everyone lists him as a guard played tackle last year in the one game he got the most snaps (injury replacement) so might be one of those guys who is deep depth at 4 positions
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Two misses for me. Had Harris and Giles-Harris on instead of Dial and Boutte.
Chiefs need an emergency 3rd QB (they cut Book who is terrible) and Zappe might as well pick the team where he might get a ring if he ever gets a callup.
It also may have been Zappe's only opportunity (or one of only two opportunities, the other being the Pats' PS and he wanted a change of scenery).
Chiefs don't have a 3rd QB and for Zappe I'd imagine being in the same QB room as Mahones and Reid is appealing.
That's fair. I assumed Zappe would have been looking for his best chance to play, and that KC could have done a little better given some of the other QBs floating around.
yeah... Bailey Zappe isn't a guy who has any oppportunity to play anywhere in the league unless 2 guys ahead of him get hurt. He's a 3rd QB anywhere.
Man, that 2022 draft is looking pretty hideous right now. With the release of Harris and Zappe, only the following remain from that class.
Strange
Thornton
Marcus Jones
Sam Roberts
Only guys left from 2021 are Barmore and Stevenson.
Strange
Thornton
Marcus Jones
Sam Roberts
Only guys left from 2021 are Barmore and Stevenson.
Mostly just about health/performance being a bit disappointing rather than who is on the roster. All the draftees from the first 3 rounds still on the roster, and one of the 4ths was traded. 5-7th guys from 2022 (even a lot of 4ths) are mostly not on the drafting team's roster. Bunch of top 3 round guys from that draft got cut yesterday.
Demontrey Jacobs
https://www.milehighreport.com/2024/8/28/24230637/patriots-claim-former-broncos-offensive-tackle-demontrey-jacobs-off-waivers
The 6’6”, 315-pound offensive tackle spent last season on the Broncos practice squad and was pushing for a roster spot this offseason. He had a solid summer, training camp, and preseason for the Broncos and made a case for a roster spot and potentially even being their swing tackle.
https://www.milehighreport.com/2024/8/28/24230637/patriots-claim-former-broncos-offensive-tackle-demontrey-jacobs-off-waivers
The 6’6”, 315-pound offensive tackle spent last season on the Broncos practice squad and was pushing for a roster spot this offseason. He had a solid summer, training camp, and preseason for the Broncos and made a case for a roster spot and potentially even being their swing tackle.
Fair, but that feels like a weak list of guys remaining especially considering how poor the Pats roster is, no?
It is weak, in the sense that the 1st rounder has shown potential but constantly hurt and the 2nd rounder hasn't done much of anything (also hurt), just noting that leaguewide guys outside the top 100 or so picks cycle out quick.
I've always found this metric, along with the "2 starters per draft" metric, strange. It seems so contextual, so that while it may average like that, if you are a bad team, you should be getting 3-4 upgrades/starters, while the top 10 teams have 1 spot for a draft pick.
With the Pats, drafting high in each round, and having a screaming need, isn't being "average" actually below-average?
Dumb question: How come one tackle is listed as OT and the other as T ? Any significance or am I over-proofreading social media?
I believe you are over-proofreading. Though Thomas apparently played mostly guard in the preseason.
He copied and pasted from different sources is my guess and those sources used different abbreviations
There goes 8 catches for 96 yards.
I think there's a good chance he'll be back. Seems like some end of roster churn. Need to make room for the waiver claims.
I think he might be back, but the bigger news on it is it likely means Douglas is returning punts (he did in preseason when Reagor didn't). Might be some indication of where the new staff views him (or not, some coaches are willing to put key WRs/RBs on punt return even if most don't). I guess maybe it means Jones will be ready and take that role too, but for now Douglas would be PR #1
Marcus Jones is an all-pro level punt returner. They should not overthink this. If he's healthy, he's got to be the guy. He's one of the most dynamic players on the team with the ball.
I'm not sure Marcus Jones is s viable returner at the moment. He was injured all of last year and missed a lot of camp. Returning punts is a good way to get injured again. Also, they have a new ST coordinator and given all Jones' missed time, I'm not sure how many reps he actually got returning kicks under the new system.