R-Dub: Time Lord, Tantalizing Sleeper, or Just a Late Flier?

bowiac

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What would be a good median expectation for Williams? Ben Wallace, Clint Capela, and DeAndre Jordan are top tier projections. Obviously a bunch of DNP-CDs and washing out of the league is his low-end. What do you guys think we should expect? The Detroit version of Amir Johnson? A meth-free Birdman?
My sense is that his median is probably a bunch of DNP-CDs too. That's sort of the downside of taking a high risk, high reward guy who slips to 27th. The bottom range of outcomes is disproportionately large.

I also suspect this issue is especially acute for non-shooting bigs like Williams. The line between being Clint Capela and not being able to see the court may be pretty small.
 

Cesar Crespo

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What would be a good median expectation for Williams? Ben Wallace, Clint Capela, and DeAndre Jordan are top tier projections. Obviously a bunch of DNP-CDs and washing out of the league is his low-end. What do you guys think we should expect? The Detroit version of Amir Johnson? A meth-free Birdman?
Tony Battie, Adonal Foyle?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Tony Battie, Adonal Foyle?
Yeah these are all guys in that ballpark I've mentioned of Swift, Thomas and Wilcox as far as expected production. I don't have Capela in there as he entered the league physically unable to compete which isn't the case with Williams.....he improved his body whereas this isn't an area of growth for Williams so that takes away his physical growth upside. DeAndre was similar at their same stage but he is more of an outlier than a true comp. The more I sleep on it the more I feel his upside isn't outrageous and he should be able to play right away if he figures out the mental part so he's able to react to game situations rather than thinking on the floor.

To put it this way, there is "risk" of pretty much anyone drafted at 27 to not make it in this league. There is rarely a "safe" bet......but I've got Williams in that upper percentile of safe bets with the primary risk being in between his ears.
 

EL Jeffe

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In terms of measurements and style, I think Biz Biyombo is probably the closest comp. I think Williams enters the league a bit more advanced, but that's the sort of player I see. If Williams puts in the work and develops a reliable jumper, then he gets to the next level. The athleticism and shot blocking will play from Day One though. Williams blocks jumpers on close outs, and that's pretty rare.
 

bowiac

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Williams actually has pretty decent assist numbers for a big (11.4% in college), which makes me think of Kyle O'Quinn as a comp as well. O'Quinn showed some range in college however, and gave some hope with his FT% he'd be able to stretch out a bit though.

Having some ability to pass out of trouble rather than just turning the ball over gives me some hope that his median outcome is a bit better than I thought above.
 

mauf

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I don’t share the optimism of the many folks here who think Williams will contribute as a rookie. A big who can’t shoot the ball, like, at all, is going to be a serious offensive liability whenever he’s on the court. And defensively, most rookies suck; the adjustment to the NBA is massive, and I don’t think a guy with character/motivation concerns will beat those odds, no matter how good a defender he was in college.

The plan for Williams depends on what happens to Smart. If Smart resigns, they probably can’t afford a Baynes replacement (they can do it tax-wise, but it would probably push them across the tax threshold). Ideally, they would flip Rozier for a big in that case, but if such a deal isn’t available, I guess Theis slides into the Baynes role and Williams takes the bulk of Theis’s minutes.

Theis is gone after next season, so there’s a role for Williams in the long run regardless. I just wonder if his development would be best served by spending a year in Portland.
 

Imbricus

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I don’t share the optimism of the many folks here who think Williams will contribute as a rookie.
You can't even see him in a Semi-type role on defense? (Except, unlike Semi, it looks like he goes vertical on defense and sometimes blocks shots.) I can see Brad saying, "Rob, go in and give Giannis hell for the next three minutes." I've watched a few clips of him and he seems to have very quick feet. Semi wasn't a very good shooter at all his first year (.346 FG, which I bet Williams could beat, even if it may be more tip-in, slam-dunk stuff). He's a kind of defensive specialist, which seems it could have value deep on the bench.

However, I agree with you if he turns out to be a case of too slow mentally/low basketball IQ/bad court awareness. That would get him stapled to the bench.

Edit: added "on defense," as clearly Williams isn't a 3 and D guy.
 

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I don’t share the optimism of the many folks here who think Williams will contribute as a rookie. A big who can’t shoot the ball, like, at all, is going to be a serious offensive liability whenever he’s on the court.
Capela takes 80% of his shots from 3 feet or closer to the rim, 35% are dunks. Why would Williams lack of shooting lead him to do anything different than that?
 

AimingForYoko

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Not to excuse the player here, but where is RobWill's agent in all this? Why wasn't the agent with him, or one of the agent's associate with him, on draft night, getting him some pub on Boston media the night he was drafted, with a call in or skype check in, and then having him ready for the remote presser the next day? Apparently, Mike Silverman and Brandon Grier of AMG are his second agent. They represent a bunch of mid and low-level NBA player, like Dewayne Dedmon and Epke Udoh. Maybe these agents realized that Williams had a lot of flaws, and not showcasing him at the combine and not working him out for a bunch of teams was the best way to get him picked in the first round to a team that didn't work him out. Or maybe they just suck.
Apparently he literally just switched agents a few weeks ago which is why stuff like his medicals were slow to get through. He fired Silverman and his new agent is Bill Duffy.

edit: Jeff Goodman lied to me, Kevin Bradbury is his agent now
 
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HomeRunBaker

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I don’t share the optimism of the many folks here who think Williams will contribute as a rookie. A big who can’t shoot the ball, like, at all, is going to be a serious offensive liability whenever he’s on the court. And defensively, most rookies suck; the adjustment to the NBA is massive, and I don’t think a guy with character/motivation concerns will beat those odds, no matter how good a defender he was in college.
Williams doesn't have natural scoring instincts and is abysmal shooting face-up but he does have a very soft shooting touch around the basket. As I've posted previously he was an easy cover in college due to zone defenses but has shown potential in scoring with his back to the basket when he has a defender on his hip. His lone move right now is a baby jump hook but if he can develop a drop step when is defender cheats he won't be a liability to where he can be ignored. The real issue is how he affects spacing and playing in a similar manner on the low block as Monroe without the offensive output.

I'm moe optimistic about his defense when used properly against good matchups for him as he has shown real good instincts in defending out to the perimeter. The way I've seen him off a penetrator to bait him into believing there is a lane to the paint isn't something easily teachable, this is instinctual so I do have hope he can figure out the nuances to NBA defense. I'm not really sold on this "low motor" thing either, just as I'm not on the "high upside" as his game was often slowed by the pace and zone defenses which do not play to his strengths.
 

ifmanis5

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I don’t share the optimism of the many folks here who think Williams will contribute as a rookie. A big who can’t shoot the ball, like, at all, is going to be a serious offensive liability whenever he’s on the court. And defensively, most rookies suck; the adjustment to the NBA is massive, and I don’t think a guy with character/motivation concerns will beat those odds, no matter how good a defender he was in college.

The plan for Williams depends on what happens to Smart. If Smart resigns, they probably can’t afford a Baynes replacement (they can do it tax-wise, but it would probably push them across the tax threshold). Ideally, they would flip Rozier for a big in that case, but if such a deal isn’t available, I guess Theis slides into the Baynes role and Williams takes the bulk of Theis’s minutes.

Theis is gone after next season, so there’s a role for Williams in the long run regardless. I just wonder if his development would be best served by spending a year in Portland.
As a Rookie, Sleepy Will will be getting Second Unit run unless foul trouble or injury. He won't be playing against the Starters very often. That's a steady diet of Jahil Okafor, Kyle O'Quinn and Richaun Holmes. He'll be asked to rebound, protect the rim, set screens and not much else. He can probably handle that for 15 minutes a night. And if he can't, then he isn't a prospect.
I'll be very interested to see how he does in Summer League.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He'll be asked to rebound, protect the rim, set screens and not much else. He can probably handle that for 15 minutes a night. And if he can't, then he isn't a prospect.
I'll be very interested to see how he does in Summer League.
Yes, he's more than physically capable of filling that Leon Powe-role "if" he is mentally up to the task. I've seen hints that he is but we aren't really going to know until the real games begin.

Generally speaking, summer league isn't friendly to bigs in the paint but watching his body language and instincts in a professional environment will be good to see.
 

mauf

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You can't even see him in a Semi-type role on defense? (Except, unlike Semi, it looks like he goes vertical on defense and sometimes blocks shots.) I can see Brad saying, "Rob, go in and give Giannis hell for the next three minutes." I've watched a few clips of him and he seems to have very quick feet. Semi wasn't a very good shooter at all his first year (.346 FG, which I bet Williams could beat, even if it may be more tip-in, slam-dunk stuff). He's a kind of defensive specialist, which seems it could have value deep on the bench.
Semi is a decent comp, but shoots the ball better than Williams — he might not drain 3s, but teams weren’t daring him to shoot open 17-footers. More fundamentally, though, if there isn’t another big added to the roster (and assuming Baynes isn’t back), Brad will be asking more of Williams than he asked of Semi this year during the regular season. Giving Semi as many minutes as we gave Theis (when he was healthy) would’ve cost us a few games over the course of the season. That’s not the end of the world if it’s the price we ultimately pay to retain Smart and retain some flexibility going forward, but it’s Plan B or Plan C at best.
 

amarshal2

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I don’t share the optimism of the many folks here who think Williams will contribute as a rookie. A big who can’t shoot the ball, like, at all, is going to be a serious offensive liability whenever he’s on the court. And defensively, most rookies suck; the adjustment to the NBA is massive, and I don’t think a guy with character/motivation concerns will beat those odds, no matter how good a defender he was in college.


Theis is gone after next season, so there’s a role for Williams in the long run regardless. I just wonder if his development would be best served by spending a year in Portland.
I think you’re missing the difference in system he’s going to be in. He’s going to be surrounded by 4 guys who can kill you from deep or drive/drive and dish. Their versatility makes a lot of difference for a Williams type. He can go out on offense and set screens to get his guys mismatches. If they spread and his guy sags off him to confront the dribbler he pivots to the basket for a lob or a great matchup in the low post. The guys around him will have no problem moving the ball and making that pass. Houston has perfected this and Boston’s players next year are better than Capela’s supporting cast.

Defensively he can physically guard lots of positions. It will likely take a while for him mentally to get his reads down but overall I think he’s best served playing in Boston with the system and the guys who can execute it.

I guess we’ll see how far away he is from being able to do the above but it seems like that’s his skill set.
 

mauf

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Theis averaged 14.9 minutes for the year. Andif my math is correct, Semi averaged 13.9 minutes up until Theis got hurt.
Wow, I totally didn’t remember Semi playing that much. Would’ve thought he was well under 10 once you averaged in zeros for the DNP-CDs. Guess not.

I feel a bit better about this.
 

Reverend

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Wow, I totally didn’t remember Semi playing that much. Would’ve thought he was well under 10 once you averaged in zeros for the DNP-CDs. Guess not.

I feel a bit better about this.
I'm getting excited watching others address your concerns. :)

I was told Kyrie was going to be a bad fit for attitude issues too. Maybe this doesn't work, or maybe Williams thrives in a different kind of engaged, motivated team structure which the Celtics appear to have in spades.

Who wants to place a wager on this working out?

 

the moops

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Actually - correction. I wasn't counting his DNPs. He did miss 4 games with an injury, so left them out. Looks like he averaged 12.5 minutes per game
 

ifmanis5

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Generally speaking, summer league isn't friendly to bigs in the paint but watching his body language and instincts in a professional environment will be good to see.
Good points.

And exactly, I want to see if he's listening to his coach, looks like he's engaged and being in the right spots at the right times. It's a Brad team so its not like the Suns where they roll the ball out and hope for the best. He will be given a specific set of tasks and asked to do those few things and not much more. It'll be up to him if he listens or not. He's in the perfect spot for him to succeed. This isn't a Marquese Chriss team situation even though he's very much that kind of player.
 

JakeRae

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Theis played more minutes because Hayward was hurt all year and Morris missed significant time. While Theis plays a different "position" minutes are a zero sum game and Hayward's injury meant the team played bigger than they had intended to for most of the season. If the team is healthy, there are fewer big minutes this year because our wings will be using more of those minutes.

In other words, if Baynes resigns, there really won't be minutes for Williams except when there are injuries. If Baynes is gone and Theis takes his role, Williams will step into the Theis place on the depth chart, but the actual role will be diminished versus what it was a year ago.
 

Reverend

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Theis played more minutes because Hayward was hurt all year and Morris missed significant time. While Theis plays a different "position" minutes are a zero sum game and Hayward's injury meant the team played bigger than they had intended to for most of the season. If the team is healthy, there are fewer big minutes this year because our wings will be using more of those minutes.

In other words, if Baynes resigns, there really won't be minutes for Williams except when there are injuries. If Baynes is gone and Theis takes his role, Williams will step into the Theis place on the depth chart, but the actual role will be diminished versus what it was a year ago.
The older I get, the less uncertain this caveat becomes for me. ;)

The annual "too much depth" threads in some of the forums here have actually gone for me from seeming like an interesting proposition, to a naive annoyance, to a welcome expression of youthful exuberance in the face of a new season before seeing the trials of the season.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Theis played more minutes because Hayward was hurt all year and Morris missed significant time. While Theis plays a different "position" minutes are a zero sum game and Hayward's injury meant the team played bigger than they had intended to for most of the season. If the team is healthy, there are fewer big minutes this year because our wings will be using more of those minutes.

In other words, if Baynes resigns, there really won't be minutes for Williams except when there are injuries. If Baynes is gone and Theis takes his role, Williams will step into the Theis place on the depth chart, but the actual role will be diminished versus what it was a year ago.

I think Williams has a good chance of spending some time in the G league if he's not going to get consistent minutes in the NBA.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Theis played more minutes because Hayward was hurt all year and Morris missed significant time. While Theis plays a different "position" minutes are a zero sum game and Hayward's injury meant the team played bigger than they had intended to for most of the season. If the team is healthy, there are fewer big minutes this year because our wings will be using more of those minutes.

In other words, if Baynes resigns, there really won't be minutes for Williams except when there are injuries. If Baynes is gone and Theis takes his role, Williams will step into the Theis place on the depth chart, but the actual role will be diminished versus what it was a year ago.
This is precisely why I don't feel we will re-sign Baynes especially if it prevents us from adding a Tyreke to replace Smart assuming the latter gets a big offer sheet. Baynes makes sense on the same deal he signed last summer but he's likely to be able to secure multiple years on the open market.
 

BigSoxFan

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This is precisely why I don't feel we will re-sign Baynes especially if it prevents us from adding a Tyreke to replace Smart assuming the latter gets a big offer sheet. Baynes makes sense on the same deal he signed last summer but he's likely to be able to secure multiple years on the open market.
Do we really think Smart is getting a big offer sheet at this point? There aren’t many good landing spots for him.
 

JakeRae

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The older I get, the less uncertain this caveat becomes for me. ;)

The annual "too much depth" threads in some of the forums here have actually gone for me from seeming like an interesting proposition, to a naive annoyance, to a welcome expression of youthful exuberance in the face of a new season before seeing the trials of the season.
To be clear, I'm not saying we have too much depth or that we shouldn't resign Baynes. I'm just saying that Theis' expanded opportunity last year came because he was third on the depth chart at the 5 and there were a lot on injuries pushing Horford to more time at the 4. For Williams to get run like that, we'd need to both not add a veteran big (or keep Baynes) and have injury issues. Only one of those leaves only sporadic playing time for him.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Yes, he's more than physically capable of filling that Leon Powe-role "if" he is mentally up to the task. I've seen hints that he is but we aren't really going to know until the real games begin.

Generally speaking, summer league isn't friendly to bigs in the paint but watching his body language and instincts in a professional environment will be good to see.
This feels like a weird comp to me. It's been a while obviously, but Powe always felt like a decent defender based on technique, not on athleticism and ability. And I'm a guy who thought Powe would have been a borderline all star with more minutes.
 

Reverend

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To be clear, I'm not saying we have too much depth or that we shouldn't resign Baynes. I'm just saying that Theis' expanded opportunity last year came because he was third on the depth chart at the 5 and there were a lot on injuries pushing Horford to more time at the 4. For Williams to get run like that, we'd need to both not add a veteran big (or keep Baynes) and have injury issues. Only one of those leaves only sporadic playing time for him.
Oh, I get you. But the more complete the team, the more likely this is to be the case, especially with low picks, right? We see it with the Patriots all the time over the last 20--it's fucking hard to make the team, but that's good.

So maybe we don't get much from him. But if we do, it's because they needed it and Brad and Danny at least had a plan for it. I think that's what we want out of a move like this, right?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Do we really think Smart is getting a big offer sheet at this point? There aren’t many good landing spots for him.
He's surely going to get at least a full MLE. Does Ainge match what Baynes will get somewhere on top of that commitment? If it's a 1-year sure but multi-year that doesn't seem like the best use of resources especially if a 3rd year is required when his role will dramatically decrease.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This feels like a weird comp to me. It's been a while obviously, but Powe always felt like a decent defender based on technique, not on athleticism and ability. And I'm a guy who thought Powe would have been a borderline all star with more minutes.
Not in skillset but in frontcourt role in how Doc used him only in advantageous spots. We differ in his ability as I have always maintained Doc utilized Powe and Davis brilliantly based on matchups to not expose their weaknesses as neither possessed the skillset or matchup ability to be full time starters on any non-Big 3 quality team.
 

JakeRae

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Oh, I get you. But the more complete the team, the more likely this is to be the case, especially with low picks, right? We see it with the Patriots all the time over the last 20--it's fucking hard to make the team, but that's good.

So maybe we don't get much from him. But if we do, it's because they needed it and Brad and Danny at least had a plan for it. I think that's what we want out of a move like this, right?
Yes, with the only caveat being that this move does create the possibility of, if money becomes prohibitive for keeping both Baynes and Smart, to decide to forego the former as a player they'd like to keep but no longer need.
 

Reverend

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Yes, with the only caveat being that this move does create the possibility of, if money becomes prohibitive for keeping both Baynes and Smart, to decide to forego the former as a player they'd like to keep but no longer need.
I haven't really been honest with myself about any of the guys we've been discussing leaving the team, ever. :)

I mean, I guess Nader can go...
 

JakeRae

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I haven't really been honest with myself about any of the guys we've been discussing leaving the team, ever. :)

I mean, I guess Nader can go...
Sure, this is getting off topic, but if Baynes wants to stay and they are going to be pushing the luxury tax line, I think it's more likely they sign him and look to move Morris or Rozier to create the extra space they'd need. Morris might not bring much back, but I think he'd fit well with a younger team like the Suns or Bulls that need wings and need some veteran presence.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Sure, this is getting off topic, but if Baynes wants to stay and they are going to be pushing the luxury tax line, I think it's more likely they sign him and look to move Morris or Rozier to create the extra space they'd need. Morris might not bring much back, but I think he'd fit well with a younger team like the Suns or Bulls that need wings and need some veteran presence.
Didn't the Morris twins whine their way out of Phoenix?
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Not in skillset but in frontcourt role in how Doc used him only in advantageous spots. We differ in his ability as I have always maintained Doc utilized Powe and Davis brilliantly based on matchups to not expose their weaknesses as neither possessed the skillset or matchup ability to be full time starters on any non-Big 3 quality team.
Oh, no, we align with their ability. I just had very green tinted glasses on at the time. Although I do think his ACL injury derailed a career that would have been a little more robust.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Oh, no, we align with their ability. I just had very green tinted glasses on at the time. Although I do think his ACL injury derailed a career that would have been a little more robust.
I think it was the two ACL's he did prior to the 3rd one that really slowed him down. I still wouldn't have his upside very high as an undersized 4 who wasn't a good passer, ball handler or perimeter shooter.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Oh, no, we align with their ability. I just had very green tinted glasses on at the time. Although I do think his ACL injury derailed a career that would have been a little more robust.
God, that sucked so much. He was finally on his way to getting a decent contract after the injuries at Cal tanked his draft stock and cost him first round money. He was a blue chip prospect with some serious hops before the knee injuries in college consigned him to relying on bully-ball to get by. But given the childhood he endured, I get the sense that perseverance is his biggest skill, so hopefully he's doing alright these days.
 

bigq

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Sure, this is getting off topic, but if Baynes wants to stay and they are going to be pushing the luxury tax line, I think it's more likely they sign him and look to move Morris or Rozier to create the extra space they'd need.
Moving further off topic, Morris and Rozier are both on the low end of the Celtics’ salary spectrum. Given the value they bring I’m not sure they would be moved.
 

JakeRae

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Didn't the Morris twins whine their way out of Phoenix?
Yes. And that is a good reason why they might not be interested. However, Morris might be interested in showcasing his ability to be a starter and playmaker at the 3 on a team with space for him to do that as he enters free agency in a year where cap space should be plentiful. The Bulls are another bad team with a young core and talent everywhere but at the 3.
 

chilidawg

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Yes. And that is a good reason why they might not be interested. However, Morris might be interested in showcasing his ability to be a starter and playmaker at the 3 on a team with space for him to do that as he enters free agency in a year where cap space should be plentiful. The Bulls are another bad team with a young core and talent everywhere but at the 3.
I would think Morris as a starter and playmaker would just diminish his value, as it would be obvious he should be neither of those. His value is as a rotation guy on a contender or pretender.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I would think Morris as a starter and playmaker would just diminish his value, as it would be obvious he should be neither of those. His value is as a rotation guy on a contender or pretender.
Morris has been a productive starter his entire career prior to coming to Boston. It isn't like he's an unknown. Putting up numbers can do nothing but help him.
 

benhogan

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They have about $15 million to spend to stay under the tax (I might be slightly off on that number). There is significant long term value in not paying tax this year, Rozier and Morris are both likely gone next year, and Smart and Baynes shouldn't cost more than $20 million combined.
Back of the envelope math:
Williams ($1.5M) eats up some of Yabusele/Nader minutes.
Move Guershon($2.6M)/Nader($1.6M). Saves $4M - probably a pipe dream.
Morris/Rozier stay - cheap and short deals
Baynes $5MM (use a 1+1 Amir deal as HRB suggested).
Smart $10MM/per

roster: Irving, Hayward, Horford, Brown, Baynes, Tatum, Rozier, Morris, Smart, Theis, Ojeleye, Williams, Bird

2 more spots to fill
 

luckiestman

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I know it’s been complimented already, but this thread title should be in the the SoSH HoF.
 

mcpickl

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went to 18/19 offseason thread to talk Baynes
Milwaukee has money committed to Henson, Maker and Hawes to play the 5
Dallas maybe, although they have $9M committed to Powell and have Dirk coming back
Clipper no chance. one of Jordan or Harrell will come back and they are paying Boban
NO, doubtful they have Brow and Okafor.

Bunch of centers available in a league that is going small/athletic
moved to Baynes thread
 

lovegtm

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I know it’s been complimented already, but this thread title should be in the the SoSH HoF.
This is a true statement, but also annoys me because I liked seeing "The Tantalizer" so much whenever I checked the board.