R4/110 Javon Baker WR UCF

[Pxer]

Love the confidence in the kid. He can back it up by catching so many balls. If he can put it all together and get on the field, hopefully he tames the celebration and taunting stuff.

Hilarious taunt but he later ended up costing his team with another penalty:
https://youtube.com/shorts/i4fxn2bzD78?feature=shared

 

[Arroyoyo]

There’s a little crazy in those eyes which I think is a good thing.

 

[chilidawg]

Baker named the best 4th round pick by PFF:

https://www.patspulpit.com/new-england-patriots-social-media-video-podcasts/2024/5/6/24150518/patriots-javon-baker-best-fourth-round-pick-nfl-draft

 

[Van Everyman]

Love the confidence in the kid. He can back it up by catching so many balls. If he can put it all together and get on the field, hopefully he tames the celebration and taunting stuff.

Hilarious taunt but he later ended up costing his team with another penalty:
https://youtube.com/shorts/i4fxn2bzD78?feature=shared

What is the penalty in this play?

 

[BigJimEd]

What is the penalty in this play?

I believe the kiss was the penalty. Fortunately for him, the TD still stood.

However, the touchdown stood and the penalty was assessed on the kickoff. According to the NCAA rule book, live-ball penalties for unsportsmanlike conduct are penalized “15 yards from [the] succeeding spot." Since the spot of the ball after the play was for the kickoff, it pushed the kick back instead of affecting the TD play.

I love some confidence and a little trash talking but you need to be more disciplined than that. Just unnecessary and stupid. Sounds like he made too many of these type of mistakes in college. Better clean it up quick.

 

[Van Everyman]

I completely get your point about discipline, but Jesus Christ, that was a penalty? The need to officiate every possible action in the sport is so draining. Also, I can't keep straight what is and isn't a penalty anymore between NCAA and NFL.

 

[jodyreeddudley78]

Another reason I genuinely think the Patriots may have stolen a mid round gem in Baker. His college career contested catch rate is the 4th highest of all WR in the draft. Worth noting that Polk looks good in this department as well.

 

[dynomite]

Another reason I genuinely think the Patriots may have stolen a mid round gem in Baker. His college career contested catch rate is the 4th highest of all WR in the draft. Worth noting that Polk looks good in this department as well.

I hope you're right! I will say that I don't know a ton about this, but my understanding (from hearing so much about NKeal Harry over the last few years, ugh) is that not all contested catches are created the same, and it's a factor but only one among many and sort of case-by-case. Look at this list from PFF writer's tweet in 2019:

View: https://twitter.com/PFF_Steve/status/1110928739565821952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1110928739565821952%7Ctwgr%5Ef2fdb6cec4d53b35a610e579f1a608cbf3c5fda5%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.hogshaven.com%2F2022%2F4%2F21%2F23035698%2Fare-top-contested-catch-numbers-in-college-a-red-flag


Any leaderboard in a stat that contains both AJ Brown and as well as NKeal and Gary Jennings and JJ Arcega-Whiteside I feel like illustrates the challenge here -- sometimes a WR is getting so many contested balls because he can't separate, sometimes it's a product of being genuinely good, etc.

 

[jodyreeddudley78]

I hope you're right! I will say that I don't know a ton about this, but my understanding (from hearing so much about NKeal Harry over the last few years, ugh) is that not all contested catches are created the same, and it's a factor but only one among many and sort of case-by-case. Look at this list from PFF writer's tweet in 2019:

View: https://twitter.com/PFF_Steve/status/1110928739565821952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1110928739565821952%7Ctwgr%5Ef2fdb6cec4d53b35a610e579f1a608cbf3c5fda5%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.hogshaven.com%2F2022%2F4%2F21%2F23035698%2Fare-top-contested-catch-numbers-in-college-a-red-flag


Any leaderboard in a stat that contains both AJ Brown and as well as NKeal and Gary Jennings and JJ Arcega-Whiteside I feel like illustrates the challenge here -- sometimes a WR is getting so many contested balls because he can't separate, sometimes it's a product of being genuinely good, etc.

Totally agree. I don't think any one stat, or just film can properly be boiled down to a single monolithic indicator of NFL success. With Baker, however, it seems like you have a combination of a highly recruited HS athlete, size, positive film reviews, and statistical excellence. The only true knock against his profile is draft capital. I'm probably being overly bullish on him, but I can't help it, I'm an optimist ‍.



Edit: that was supposed to be a shrug emoji...

 

[j44thor]

I think the biggest knock on Baker is level of competition combined with not being able to get on the field at AL despite AL not fielding their typical alpha WR class the last two seasons. I'm bullish on him as a 4th rd pick but he certainly has his warts. Had he had the season he did at AL he is probably a top 30-60 pick.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Jody, I think he has top 15-20 WR potential. I had him higher rated than Polk. He is a better route runner. He's like an incredible salesman who sometimes cuts corners to get the job done when he doesn't need to.

I've seen the Jeremy Maclin comp thrown around and I love that for him production wise.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I think the biggest knocks on Baker involve him having concentration drops and sometimes not attacking the ball correctly with his hands, using speed breaks when he shouldn't, getting to his spots too early in routes//rushing through some, and needing to expand his route tree. Some people have separation questions. I don't have as many there. He also might be a bit of a diva but I really just report what I read character wise. I have no idea.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Oh, Baker also didn't test super fast but his in-game speeds have been a lot better. He had a play I saw where on a breakaway run he got up to past 22 MPH FWIW.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I think the biggest knock on Baker is level of competition combined with not being able to get on the field at AL despite AL not fielding their typical alpha WR class the last two seasons. I'm bullish on him as a 4th rd pick but he certainly has his warts. Had he had the season he did at AL he is probably a top 30-60 pick.

Good callout on the level of competition. Not entirely sure about the Bama thing. @Brand Name any insight on what happened at Bama and why he transferred? There are always rumors with transfers so... figured before we speculate about what could be total BS (and by we I mean me lol) I would ask you.

 

[jodyreeddudley78]

Oh, Baker also didn't test super fast but his in-game speeds have been a lot better. He had a play I saw where on a breakaway run he got up to past 22 MPH FWIW.

Not sure the validity of this sight: Senior Bowl MPH , but yes, he seems to have the in game speed as well.

 

[dynomite]

I'm probably being overly bullish on him, but I can't help it, I'm an optimist ‍.

Hah! I love the optimism. I mean, it's May and the Pats were awful last season and are rebuilding. This is the time to hope Maye and Baker and the rest of the rookies all hit their ceilings!

Anyway, I just find predicting WRs in the NFL to be so hard. To take a standout from those contested catch numbers, for example: Gary Jennings from WVU who went to Seattle in the 4th round in 2019. I feel like I remember some analyst saying he was the steal of the draft or something, and to remember his name.

Like Baker, he's ~ 6'1", 200 lb with a little more straight line speed (4.42 40 vs. 4.52 for Baker, 1.55 split vs. 1.58) and blazing game speed of 22 mph. And like Baker, Jennings put up enormous numbers as a Junior & Senior (150 catches, 2,000 yards, 14 TDs vs. 110, 1,900, 12 for Baker). And basically Gary Jennings's pro career is only notable for its usefulness in Immaculate Grid. He's had cups of coffee with 8 NFL teams, an XFL team, and now a UFL team in the Stallions.

But unlike @SMU_Sox or others, I'm just looking at google-able stats and scouting reports, not breaking down game film, so I wouldn't be surprised if he and Baker actually have nothing to do with one another and it's not even a relevant point of comparison.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think the biggest knock on Baker is level of competition combined with not being able to get on the field at AL despite AL not fielding their typical alpha WR class the last two seasons. I'm bullish on him as a 4th rd pick but he certainly has his warts. Had he had the season he did at AL he is probably a top 30-60 pick.

At Alabama, he was behind Smith, Waddle and Metchie... then when Smith and Waddle left, they brought in Jameson Williams, that's when he transferred, he was stuck behind those 2 (Bolden got the slot work). Maybe he would have gotten looks in 2022, but that was a team in transition, he had no guarantees and he could go to UCF (originally was going to transfer to Kentucky) and know he'd get 2 years as the #1 to boost his draft potential.

 

[Brand Name]

Good callout on the level of competition. Not entirely sure about the Bama thing. @Brand Name any insight on what happened at Bama and why he transferred? There are always rumors with transfers so... figured before we speculate about what could be total BS (and by we I mean me lol) I would ask you.

Very kind of you to see me as your Tide Guide of sorts!

I think it was merely a matter of playing time. Which was weird given it came after 2021 when they lost John Metchie and Jameson Williams to the draft, right? Opportunity share was there. He was someone who I thought would develop a bit more given his direct tutelage under both DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. The only official quote I've heard about him reinforces this notion and nothing more: "I just needed to touch the ball."

Which he would have, honestly, makes that transfer all the more baffling. Jermaine Burton was new to the system off his transfer from Georgia (who I think we both really love for Cinci, or at least I do), and Ja'Corey Brooks (notably a Z!) who wound up having a shittastic 2023 (3 receptions, 30 yards, now at Louisville), were the leading Bama WRs that year. Neither hit 700 yards. Baker was a guy who made the tough plays and it showed. I thought he'd develop a bit more with speed and eventually be a press beater in Tuscaloosa, but that's what the Knights wound up getting instead on a smaller scale, relative to football powers/conferences. If you really want to see this in action, the Gasparilla Bowl tape against Georgia Tech was genuinely really encouraging there, and showed you what I like and I think you would too, if you haven't seen it.

Overall, I think Baker is a good potential Z, nice physical route runner. Looking for him to get used in more simple offenses because he's not the best in control, of feet or body alike yet*. But you look at how a Malzahn used him...swing screens, jet sweeps, that played well to vision, nearly three-quarters of his snaps were to the outside last year.

*He gets there though? Look out, only Nabers, Odunze, and Washington had more 20+ yard catches in this class last year.

 

[SMU_Sox]

@Brand Name Yes, we both absolutely loved the Burton pick and the fit with Cinci. I think he is going to be a top 30 WR if not top 20 or top 15 some years. If not for his off-field issues he would have been a top 50 guy imo. His route running is chef's kiss. Thank you so much for your thoughts on Baker too. I am a big fan. I think he can be a high end WR2 and I like him even more than Polk.