Race to the Bottom: Birds vs. Royals

Sam Ray Not

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So my O's fan friend has a big "shoot the moon" bet with his Royals fan friend. Since he told me about it, both teams have been tanking like absolute champs: both 1-9 in their last ten. Pythag dislikes the Royals quite a bit more, but the O's are a game worse, with a real chance to be 40 games out of first place by the All-Star break, which would be a fairly remarkable achievement. And the impending Machado trade gives them some untapped tank-ability.

BAL 24-65, .270 / -144 run differential / 37 GB
KC 25-64, .281 / -186 run differential / 24.5 GB

By way of a topic, a few questions...

  • Has any team ever been 40 games back at the all-star break?
  • Does either team make a serious run at the modern era loss record (1962 NYM, 40-120, .250, 60.5 GB), or the worst record in the past 50 years (2003 DET 43-119, .265, 47 GB)
  • Is either team still trying? Is tanking for the top pick in baseball a more valid strategy than it used to be, with advances in scouting, etc.?
 
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soxhop411

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Times like this are when I wished Mlb had its own form of relegation.
 

sean1562

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The Orioles need to shake up how they develop their pitching prospects. I feel like they have had numerous elite arms over the last 5-10 years and the only one to pan out was Arrieta, and only after he was traded. Dylan Bundy, Chris Tillman, and Kevin Gausman were all considered elite prospects with high ceilings. Zach Britton was a failed starter originally as well.

And that Chris Davis signing was obviously stupid when it happened. The Royals have their recent WS, and seem to be somewhat competently managed, but the Orioles are just a pathetic franchise
 

pedro1918

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Last night Chris Davis broke the all-time Orioles record for strikeouts. He passed Cal Ripken, Jr.

Cal played in 2,027 more Oriole games than Davis.

FTR, He struck out twice today.
 

DeadlySplitter

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the Royals feel like a team that isn't going to win 50 games. probably not down to all-time record lows, but they are unspeakably bad right now. they are 0-7 in July and look at this June:

upload_2018-7-8_20-25-45.png


5-21 June. dating back to June 3rd, since then they're 4-27. 4-27!!
 

Sad Sam Jones

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KC also has 12 games remaining against the White Sox, who do an excellent (and frequent) Keystone Cops impression themselves.

*
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I was going to say, if you look at that KC June schedule, they didn't play any games all month against the Central.

I think the Orioles will end up with a worse record, their GM and manager are both on the brink of being fired, their organization above that is a bit unclear too. They will likely not just trade Machado but some others too, and they have a much tougher division to play down the stretch than the Royals do.
 

E5 Yaz

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I think the Orioles will end up with a worse record, their GM and manager are both on the brink of being fired, their organization above that is a bit unclear too. They will likely not just trade Machado but some others too, and they have a much tougher division to play down the stretch than the Royals do.
I'm not saying you're wrong, but do you allow a GM on death row to make the Machado trade ... the single biggest move they can make to reinvigorate the roster?

Personally, I don't find this team to Duquette's fault. The ownership is a trainwreck as the Sons of Angelos, with the counsel of Brady Iago Anderson have hamstrung not just any Machado trade, but any more at all

As Buck Queeg, I suspect he's figuring out who to start in the first game of the ALCS. It used to be that the team Showalter leaves immediately improves ... but I don't see that happening in Baltimore.
 

jon abbey

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I mean, I'm not actually trying to predict the actions of an organization who somehow believes that signing international agents is unethical and so sits that out every year, but it'd seem exceptionally stupid even for them if they don't move Machado while they still can.

The Mets are in a similar position with Alderson sick, but their main chips are under contract past this season, so there I think the GM flux may play into things (although DeGrom is likely at peak value right now, a la Chris Archer a few years ago).
 

soxhop411

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I'm not saying you're wrong, but do you allow a GM on death row to make the Machado trade ... the single biggest move they can make to reinvigorate the roster?

Personally, I don't find this team to Duquette's fault. The ownership is a trainwreck as the Sons of Angelos, with the counsel of Brady Iago Anderson have hamstrung not just any Machado trade, but any more at all

As Buck Queeg, I suspect he's figuring out who to start in the first game of the ALCS. It used to be that the team Showalter leaves immediately improves ... but I don't see that happening in Baltimore.
I agree with this. The O’s problem goes much deeper than just the GM and the manager. I mean the O’s ownership completely ignores the international market. I’m not sure it that was a agreed decision by the GM and ownership or if Ownership is overruling DD who wants to sign IFA’s But a new coach and GM won’t do much if the owners are as cheap and meddling as mets ownership
 

BaseballJones

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the Royals feel like a team that isn't going to win 50 games. probably not down to all-time record lows, but they are unspeakably bad right now. they are 0-7 in July and look at this June:

View attachment 21894


5-21 June. dating back to June 3rd, since then they're 4-27. 4-27!!
Just to illustrate why baseball is the way it is, and we shouldn't get too upset when the Sox struggle with inferior opponents from time to time.... see that three game series against Houston? It was in Houston, who's a total juggernaut, and they took one out of three and Houston was fortunate to escape game 2 of that series with a win (4-3 in extras).

Baseball is crazy.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I mean, I'm not actually trying to predict the actions of an organization who somehow believes that signing international agents is unethical and so sits that out every year, but it'd seem exceptionally stupid even for them if they don't move Machado while they still can.
I know a bit about the Os and never heard thy were avoiding IFAs because it was "unethical." Can you please elaborate?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I agree with this. The O’s problem goes much deeper than just the GM and the manager. I mean the O’s ownership completely ignores the international market. I’m not sure it that was a agreed decision by the GM and ownership or if Ownership is overruling DD who wants to sign IFA’s But a new coach and GM won’t do much if the owners are as cheap and meddling as mets ownership
It's an ownership decision as I understand it.
 

MakeMineMoxie

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Last night Chris Davis broke the all-time Orioles record for strikeouts. He passed Cal Ripken, Jr.

Cal played in 2,027 more Oriole games than Davis.

FTR, He struck out twice today.
That's 12 1/2 more SEASONS!!! Cheer up, O's fans, you only have 4 1/2 more years of Davis!

Chris Davis 1b
7 years/$161M (2016-22)

  • 7 years/$161M (2016-22)
    • re-signed by Baltimore as a free agent 1/21/16
    • 16-22: salaries of $23M annually, with $17M paid as earned and $6M deferred without interest
    • the $42M in deferred money is to be paid in 10 installments of $3.5M annually each July 1, 2023-32, and five installments of $1.4M each July 1, 2033-37
    • MLB calculates present-day value to $147,831,478 with deferrals, while the MLBPA’s present-day value calculation is $147,737,635
    • limited no-trade protection
 

jon abbey

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I know a bit about the Os and never heard thy were avoiding IFAs because it was "unethical." Can you please elaborate?
This thread (near the bottom of page 1) says that Angelos doesn't like the buscon system, which is what I meant. FWIW:

"The hang-ups from everything I've read is that Angelos hates the buscon system (which is a fair viewpoint, it sucks, but one team sitting out doesn't change anything, just hurts the Orioles) and doesn't like spending big guarantees on players who haven't played quality organized baseball. They also apparently don't like the idea of the posting fee to negotiate with NPB players."

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/32351-orioles-participating-in-july-2-international-signings/
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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So my O's fan friend has a big "shoot the moon" bet with his Royals fan friend. Since he told me about it, both teams have been tanking like absolute champs: both 1-9 in their last ten. Pythag dislikes the Royals quite a bit more, but the O's are a game worse, with a real chance to be 40 games out of first place by the All-Star break, which would be a fairly remarkable achievement. And the impending Machado trade gives them some untapped tank-ability.

BAL 24-65, .270 / -144 run differential / 37 GB
KC 25-64, .281 / -186 run differential / 24.5 GB

By way of a topic, a few questions...

  • Has any team ever been 40 games back at the all-star break?
  • Does either team make a serious run at the modern era loss record (1962 NYM, 40-120, .250, 60.5 GB), or the worst record in the past 50 years (2003 DET 43-119, .265, 47 GB)
  • Is either team still trying? Is tanking for the top pick in baseball a more valid strategy than it used to be, with advances in scouting, etc.?
The Os aren't tanking but they will have a worse record than KC.

The Os are a product of bad management. The biggest blame can be placed on ownership, which thinks it is smarter than everyone else. But they have made one disastrous personnel decision after another for the past 4 years: not extending Machado when he was injured on a buy-low deal (owner emphasis on medicals); not resigning important contributors like Chen and Cruz and (given how they've had no other RFer), Markakis; the Davis deal; virtually all of their deadline deals since Miller; bottom feeding on FA pitchers and not having any of those oan out; etc.

Plus it's not clear who is actually making decisions since Duke was castrated after he tried to go to TOR.

Very sad but very foreseeable.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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This thread (near the bottom of page 1) says that Angelos doesn't like the buscon system, which is what I meant. FWIW:

"The hang-ups from everything I've read is that Angelos hates the buscon system (which is a fair viewpoint, it sucks, but one team sitting out doesn't change anything, just hurts the Orioles) and doesn't like spending big guarantees on players who haven't played quality organized baseball. They also apparently don't like the idea of the posting fee to negotiate with NPB players."

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/32351-orioles-participating-in-july-2-international-signings/
That makes more sense, thanks. I had always heard that Peter Angelos wouldn't play in the Int'l market because he didn't want to pay big money to kids that he couldn't prove their age or medicals but The buscon system probably aggravates him too.

The amazing thing is (as I've posted before) is that MLB has implemented a system where clubs other than those picking in the top 10 draft slots have a pretty level playing field. Not participating in the IFA is like trying to compete in a marathon with 10 pound ankle weights on each leg.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The Os on pace will have some of the worst defensive statistics since they started keeping them. Here's more on the gory details: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/7/5/17536062/baltimore-orioles-worst-defense-manny-machado-adam-jones. For example, "At their current pace, they will finish the season with negative-160 DRS—40 worse than the previous record holder, the 2005 Yankees."

This is even funnier considering that the 2014 Os were built as a pitching and defense club: this post says that they were 3rd in the AL in Runs Allowed per Game, 3rd in Defensive Efficiency, tied for 3rd fewest errors committed, turned the 2nd most Double Plays, and finished 3rd (by fractions of a percent) in Fielding Percentage.

Their roster construction has been absurd.
 

DanoooME

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That's 12 1/2 more SEASONS!!! Cheer up, O's fans, you only have 4 1/2 more years of Davis!

Chris Davis 1b
7 years/$161M (2016-22)

  • 7 years/$161M (2016-22)
    • re-signed by Baltimore as a free agent 1/21/16
    • 16-22: salaries of $23M annually, with $17M paid as earned and $6M deferred without interest
    • the $42M in deferred money is to be paid in 10 installments of $3.5M annually each July 1, 2023-32, and five installments of $1.4M each July 1, 2033-37
    • MLB calculates present-day value to $147,831,478 with deferrals, while the MLBPA’s present-day value calculation is $147,737,635
    • limited no-trade protection
And the deferred money ends only 2 years after Bobby Bonilla!

Hmm, which contract is worse right now: Davis, Pujols or Miggy?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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And the deferred money ends only 2 years after Bobby Bonilla!

Hmm, which contract is worse right now: Davis, Pujols or Miggy?
Pujols is a piker comparatively. He's only owed $87M for baseball and his still contributing some positive value on the field.

Davis is owed $92M and the Os would pick up wins if they cut him but they won't because losing is better for them.

Miggy though - wow, owed $154M, came off a negative WAR season last year and then just had two major injuries this year. I'd say that this is the worst contract.

What a country.

edit: none of the amounts count deferred money as clubs usually take that money and invest it somewhere so that they can reduce their future obligations.
 

DeadlySplitter

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some separation in this race this weekend. the O's obliged and got swept the Jays, with us coming in shortly. the Twins somehow managed to get swept by the Royals (which is really just... stunning)

O's 28-72
Royals 30-68 (3 games "behind")
 

jungleboy

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Baltimore's elimination number for the division is down to six, while Kansas City's is at 23. Obviously they both have the same elimination number for the wild card (18). @cannonball 1729, you'd better get ready early this year!
 

DeadlySplitter

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it's finally time - BAL @ KC this weekend for 3.

KC: 42-91
BAL: 40-94, 2.5 games "ahead"

KC: 498 runs scored, 712 allowed (-214)
BAL: 529 runs scored, 730 allowed (-201)
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
If the O's continue their downward spiral and the Royals have a hot September, it could happen that the O's will finish twice as many games out of first place as any other team. Has that ever happened, I wonder?
 

SirPsychoSquints

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If the O's continue their downward spiral and the Royals have a hot September, it could happen that the O's will finish twice as many games out of first place as any other team. Has that ever happened, I wonder?
They'd have to pick up the pace to finish twice as far back as the Blue Jays - they're currently 70% further back than the Jays, and BP projects them to finish 68%, FG 69% & 538 65%.

To double the Jays, they probably need the Sox to fall further back to the pack, unless I'm thinking about this wrong (further back than the projections systems).
 

TheYaz67

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Yeah, this seems almost over (what with Machado and other good O's mostly all gone now) - O's with a 6.5 game "lead" on KC for worst record, only suspense left is perhaps whether or not the O's will get to 115 loses...

We need a new race to the bottom thread - I suggest Chris Davis (.177) vs. Gary Sanchez (.181)...
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Davis' place in history has been documented in the "Celebrating Orioles Suckitude" thread in P&G. He's "leading" Rob Deer and Dan Uggla by .002 for the worst qualifying batting average in modern baseball history. Sanchez won't come close to being a qualified hitter (502 PA), so we're looking at guys below that bar, Roberto Perez has them both beat.

Perez only has 188 PA despite being on Cleveland's active 25-man roster all season, and is hitting .157 even after going 2-for-4 in his last game. At least he's good at his position, unlike the other two, since he doesn't have their power. That game included his first home run since April 10th, and he drove in as many runs (4) in that game as he had in the previous 3 months combined.

*
 

soxhop411

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Just put the O's out of their misery....

gave up 10 runs in the third to the A's
 

dynomite

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Just put the O's out of their misery....

gave up 10 runs in the third to the A's
It's really remarkable. The Orioles have been one of the worst teams in baseball history...

And somehow they've been even WORSE in September. They're 1-8 (soon to be 1-9) and have been outscored 25 to 69. Oh, and 11 of their last 17 games are against the A's, Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros.

:unsure:
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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Davis' place in history has been documented in the "Celebrating Orioles Suckitude" thread in P&G. He's "leading" Rob Deer and Dan Uggla by .002 for the worst qualifying batting average in modern baseball history. Sanchez won't come close to being a qualified hitter (502 PA), so we're looking at guys below that bar, Roberto Perez has them both beat.

Perez only has 188 PA despite being on Cleveland's active 25-man roster all season, and is hitting .157 even after going 2-for-4 in his last game. At least he's good at his position, unlike the other two, since he doesn't have their power. That game included his first home run since April 10th, and he drove in as many runs (4) in that game as he had in the previous 3 months combined.

*
In 1991, Rob Deer hit .179 and stuck out 175 times.

In 2013, Dan Uggla hit .179 and struck out 171 times.

In 2016, Chris Davis hit .221 and struck out 219 times.

This season, Chris Davis is currently hitting .174 with 178 strikeouts.

I wonder how many other players have struck out more times than their average (x100). I know Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds both have in recent years.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It's really remarkable. The Orioles have been one of the worst teams in baseball history...

And somehow they've been even WORSE in September. They're 1-8 (soon to be 1-9) and have been outscored 25 to 69. Oh, and 11 of their last 17 games are against the A's, Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros.

:unsure:
The Os had some talent on the team before the break. But they are now playing guys many of whom will be out of baseball in a few years. I mean they just called up a guy who hit .235 at AAA.

58.5 GB. There's still a shot.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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In 1991, Rob Deer hit .179 and stuck out 175 times.

In 2013, Dan Uggla hit .179 and struck out 171 times.

In 2016, Chris Davis hit .221 and struck out 219 times.

This season, Chris Davis is currently hitting .174 with 178 strikeouts.

I wonder how many other players have struck out more times than their average (x100). I know Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds both have in recent years.
Dunn Reynolds davis Dunn, plus a bunch of pitchers in small samples:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/tiny/Y9x62
 

Cesar Crespo

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Davis' place in history has been documented in the "Celebrating Orioles Suckitude" thread in P&G. He's "leading" Rob Deer and Dan Uggla by .002 for the worst qualifying batting average in modern baseball history. Sanchez won't come close to being a qualified hitter (502 PA), so we're looking at guys below that bar, Roberto Perez has them both beat.

Perez only has 188 PA despite being on Cleveland's active 25-man roster all season, and is hitting .157 even after going 2-for-4 in his last game. At least he's good at his position, unlike the other two, since he doesn't have their power. That game included his first home run since April 10th, and he drove in as many runs (4) in that game as he had in the previous 3 months combined.

*
Sandy Leon isn't far off at .184 in 268 PA
 

Soxfan in Fla

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And Gary Sanchez and Perez are? What is your point? Sandy Leon makes 3 times as much money than Gary Sanchez.
Someone making $23 million should not be competing for worst batting average ever. Sandy Leon is not paid to hit. Gary Sanchez isn’t paid squat. Perez isn’t paid squat either.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Anyway… since reaching his highest batting average in 3 months (.181), Chris Davis is 1-for-24 (with 11 strikeouts) and back down to .174. He also surpassed the season PA requirement this weekend to qualify for batting average, so there's no benching him in the hopes his failure will be overlooked by history the way Adam Dunn's 2011 season has been. If he maintains his current pace of at-bats, he'll need to hit about .250 over the remaining 13 games just to avoid the lowest qualifying batting average since 1892.

*
 

santadevil

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Since there is no Sox game on today, I'm following the Jays / Orioles game. Chris Davis is 0 for 1 with a groundout so far. New average is .173
 

TheYaz67

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The O's have now equaled the mark made by the infamous 1988 team and their awful 54-107 effort. Pretty hard to fathom that this present team is worse than a team that started a season 0-21...
 

TheYaz67

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The next worse qualifying batting average in the majors right now is Joey Gallo's .210. However because Joey is putting up a .316 OBP (somehow!) and .500 SLG, his efforts have been worth 2.1 WAR to the Texas Rangers, just a bit better that Davis' current -2.6 WAR....