Rafael is Cool but Rude (2021 Thread)

nighthob

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Hernandez is only signed through ‘22, so if you want him on the ‘23 team, you will need to extend him. I don’t see how they can resign Schwarber, extend Devers and Bogaerts, especially as Verdugo, Arroyo, and Renfroe will be more expensive via arb. That’s basically this years team, but older and much more expensive.
Verdugo is nice, but he’s the very definition of the guy you trade for more prospects when the time comes. He does provide defense at the corner OF spots, which is probably more important than IF defense at this current time, so there is that. But if there really is a choice between Verdugo and Schwarber, you choose Schwarber 12 times out of 10.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Why? Schwarber is 236/342/439 career while Verdugo is 290/351/446. Verdugo is 3 years younger and better defensively. Giving Schwarber big money and trading Verdugo would be foolish.
 

chawson

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Why? Schwarber is 236/342/439 career while Verdugo is 290/351/446. Verdugo is 3 years younger and better defensively. Giving Schwarber big money and trading Verdugo would be foolish.
Career stats aren’t predictive. There’s ample reporting about the changes Schwarber has made since recently, and another good one was published at the Athletic yesterday. That breakout looks sustainable to me, and his improved plate discipline makes him a much different hitter than his early Cubs years. Schwarber has a .415 xwOBA since May 1, on par with Fernando Tatis Jr. Verdugo’s mark is .334 since then, on par with Eric Hosmer.

Verdugo is indeed cheaper, but I’m with nighthob that Schwarber is several times the hitter. I think it’d piss off a lot of people, but Verdugo is a smart trade candidate in the right deal. I think the Red Sox traditionally need more power out of their left fielder, since the CF and RF positions are so challenging that they typically require a player of greater athleticism. Three other factors: Verdugo is also far more vulnerable to left-handed pitching than we thought, he can’t quite play center field, and we’ll need to free up left field if that’s an option to keep Bogaerts in Boston, or to put Duran there if he works out and stays put.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Betting that Schwarber’s performance since May 1st is what to expect going forward seems pretty risky given that the sample represents like 10% of his career; esp since a lot of guys have career years at this age. I also find it hard to imagine that the Sox would extend Bogaerts to play him in LF. Not saying I’m totally opposed to bringing KS back but feels like it could be buying high on a guy who is probably a DH.

Verdugo will start getting expensive but he doesn’t make too much sense as a trade candidate yet given the lack of MLB ready OF depth in the system. I think Schwarber is only an option to return if JD opts out (which he probably will). What kind of a deal does he get, 5/75?

Team has a ton of arb eligible players, running back the same team is gonna be $$$.
 
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nighthob

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Why? Schwarber is 236/342/439 career while Verdugo is 290/351/446. Verdugo is 3 years younger and better defensively. Giving Schwarber big money and trading Verdugo would be foolish.
With the exception of the aborted covid season, Schwarber's been a reliable ≈120+ OPS+ guy who's really broken out this year and looks like a prime DH candidate. And if the universal DH gets implemented this offseason and both JD and KS hit the market, you choose the younger guy as your DH of the immediate future. Verdugo managed to look really good during the abortive covid season, but has otherwise looked like an above average player. And if you have to choose between an anchor hitter and an above average guy, you go with the hitter. LF defense isn't that important.
 

grimshaw

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Verdugo is nice, but he’s the very definition of the guy you trade for more prospects when the time comes. He does provide defense at the corner OF spots, which is probably more important than IF defense at this current time, so there is that. But if there really is a choice between Verdugo and Schwarber, you choose Schwarber 12 times out of 10.
To me Schwarber is someone you get if you have a strong defense already. I love him, but don't think X, Devers, Dalbec, and JD can all co-exist without the pitching staff murdering someone. And I don't think JD is going anywhere, nor would they move Devers to 1st with Casas close.

I'm not saying Verdugo is someone you build your franchise around or anything, but I'd want to keep him for his cost because they can spend big with him so ridiculously cheap.

This sounds nuts, but I'd see what teams offered for Devers and make a run at Bryant. He's one of the few guys who could get an ace.
 
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Petagine in a Bottle

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Problem is Bogaerts isn’t a FA until after next year so it’s hard to go after Correa (or Seagar) unless you plan on moving Bogaerts for a year (which he’d surely hate) or try to get him to give up his no trade (and then you probably don’t get much). Semien seems like the guy you could go after; he could play 2b for a year and provide Bogaerts insurance for years after that. Bryant does seem like a guy to go after- he’s criminally underrated and could play a number of positions.

I don’t think a series of moves like that and potentially moving Devers is all that far fetched at all.
 

nighthob

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To me Schwarber is someone you get if you have a strong defense already. I love him, but don't think X, Devers, Dalbec, and JD can all co-exist without the pitching staff murdering someone. And I don't think JD is going anywhere, nor would they move Devers to 1st with Casas close.

I'm not saying Verdugo is someone you build your franchise around or anything, but I'd want to keep him for his cost because they can spend big with him so ridiculously cheap.
We were discussing what happens if/when the universal DH is finally implemented this offseason. With 15 jobs opening up both JD and KS will be opting out for the money. And if you can only keep two of Renfroe, Verdugo, and Schwarber, then it’s the two at the ends that you want.
 

cantor44

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Problem is Bogaerts isn’t a FA until after next year so it’s hard to go after Correa (or Seagar) unless you plan on moving Bogaerts for a year (which he’d surely hate) or try to get him to give up his no trade (and then you probably don’t get much). Semien seems like the guy you could go after; he could play 2b for a year and provide Bogaerts insurance for years after that. Bryant does seem like a guy to go after- he’s criminally underrated and could play a number of positions.

I don’t think a series of moves like that and potentially moving Devers is all that far fetched at all.
I'll third this ...Not sure what Bloom/Henry are willing to spend, but both Semien and Bryant offer athleticism and versatility that Bloom seems to value, and that the Sox could use ... they are a bit lumbering with a lot of good hit/bad D players in Dalbec/Schwarber/Devers/JD/even X ...this may be getting too fantasy league, but would interesting to get both those players and ride Devers out through his years of control; would be protected in all sorts of directions from a positional player standpoint ...
 

grimshaw

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We were discussing what happens if/when the universal DH is finally implemented this offseason. With 15 jobs opening up both JD and KS will be opting out for the money. And if you can only keep two of Renfroe, Verdugo, and Schwarber, then it’s the two at the ends that you want.
Oh Schwarber for sure but I'm not sure about JD.

Players have to decide within 5 days of the end of the World Series to opt out and then the collective bargaining agreement expires a month after. I'm just not sure teams are going to rush to give a raise or length to someone who hasn't been a bargain since 2018. That's not a knock on JD, just the position. Some NL teams also have the position filled internally by butchers (Castellanos or Votto, Hoskins, Hosmer, Harper perhaps, since he's been one of the worst fielders in baseball etc.)

Anyhow, this is off topic so I'll let it go.
 

chawson

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Betting that Schwarber’s performance since May 1st is what to expect going forward seems pretty risky given that the sample represents like 10% of his career; esp since a lot of guys have career years at this age. I also find it hard to imagine that the Sox would extend Bogaerts to play him in LF. Not saying I’m totally opposed to bringing KS back but feels like it could be buying high on a guy who is probably a DH.
It’s anyone’s guess about Bogaerts, but agree to disagree about Schwarber. I think if you get a 28-year-old top-15 hitter in MLB (with slightly below average defensive value) you do what you can to keep him in the fold. I think he’s a perfect and necessary fit to replace the JDM-sized hole in our lineup, which has already begun to appear (JDM: 110 wRC+ since 4/27) and he can give us a year of passable defense in left before slotting nicely at DH in 2023.

Verdugo will start getting expensive but he doesn’t make too much sense as a trade candidate yet given the lack of MLB ready OF depth in the system. I think Schwarber is only an option to return if JD opts out (which he probably will). What kind of a deal does he get, 5/75?

Team has a ton of arb eligible players, running back the same team is gonna be $$$.
Arb-eligible players are by definition inexpensive relative to their value, so wouldn’t having several of them be a good thing? Occasionally you’ll have a superstar like Devers making $18~M in their final year of control, but that’s still a nice problem to have.

Regardless, I’m not seeing a ton of them, nor do we seem to be looking at an especially large arb hit. Devers will be paid probably $10-12M and Renfroe will get $5-6. Verdugo and Pivetta jump from peanuts to $3-4 and $2-3 respectively, and Arroyo might make $2. All of these are terrific value for their production.

A major-market team like the Red Sox would never field a team of mostly pre-arb players. We have 7 players with guaranteed contracts on the books in 2022, totaling roughly $100M in AAV. Another 3 players have $20M worth of options that’ll possibly (Vaz) or likely (Richards, Pérez) be declined. That’s on par or less committed ‘22 money than just about every major market contender (NYY, CHW, HOU, ATL, LAA, LAD, SD, PHI). But even if we’re over some radically lowered CBT threshold, it doesn’t seem like a big deal, because another $70~ million comes off the books in 2023.
 
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Petagine in a Bottle

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Re: Schwarber, the argument is really whether he’s a top 15 hitter in baseball; you seem much more confident than I. I guess it will all come down to what JD does; tough to fit Schwarber in if he doesn’t opt out.

The issue with arbitration is just that the Sox have a lot of players eligible and they will all see significant raises; so bringing back Schwarber at 2x his salary adds to that. Ideally you’d be integrating several pre arb players on to the roster to help offset, hard to see who those players are right now.

Re: 2023, yes, lots of money comes off the book but there are hardly any players under team control so unless the farm system is cranking them out by then you’ve got to rebuild free agency which is expensive and can be challenging. Potentially trying to replace Martinez, Bogaerts, Sale, Eovaldi, Hernandez, etc in one off-season would be interesting. If Duran, Dalbec, and Casas or a combination of them are impact players by then, it gets a lot easier.

(if JD opts in and Vazquez’s option is picked up, estimated arb awards has the Sox payroll at ~$160, so you could probably add Schwarber, a starter and a reliever and be around $200. JD opting out would make things a lot more interesting).
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Devers has historically "started" off slowly, had a great May-July and then regressed for the rest of the season. This year was a little different in that he really jumped out of the gate at full blast, but since the Trade Deadline he's had an OPS of .735, not even considering his shitastic defense since then.
JDM's offensive collapse has gotten more attention, but Devers has really been just as bad.
I also realize that it's still somewhat unfair to call any sort of "history" he has as a consistent pattern. I toss out 2020 as having any meaningful stats for anyone... and 2019, while he didn't have a second half (post deadline) as strong as his first half, it wasn't as bad as this year, and for 2018 was truly a rookie season.
I still think he's great and a top 20 hitter in MLB and should be attempted to be extended this offseason. But any discussion about his worth needs to be discussed not just in his offense, but his defense and his slumps to ascertain his worth. I don't think he's worth a $30M per season at all. But buying out arb years and having him around for 8-12 seasons at $25M in the middle of a lineup is good value even if he moves to DH in 5-6 years.
 

chawson

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The issue with arbitration is just that the Sox have a lot of players eligible and they will all see significant raises; so bringing back Schwarber at 2x his salary adds to that. Ideally you’d be integrating several pre arb players on to the roster to help offset, hard to see who those players are right now.
Sorry to harp on this, but I really don’t think this is the case, especially to rationalize why the Sox should be frugal (yet again!) this winter.

The Sox are middle of the pack among MLB teams with players in the arbitration process. They have three guys entering arb1 next year (Arroyo, Pivetta, Verdugo), four in arb2 (Brasier, Cordero, Devers, Renfroe) and two in arb4 (Plawecki and Michael Feliz). The Yankees have 19 such players, the Rays 18 and the Mets 17, with about half the league coming in with a higher figure than the Sox.

Of course, it’s less about the number of arb-eligible players than the dollars, but I still don’t see the cause for alarm. Arroyo, Pivetta and Verdugo are extremely cheap. Brasier, Cordero, and Feliz are non-tender candidates whose salaries will be so low we may as well keep them, and Plawecki’s final year of arb—if he stays—won’t top $3M. It’s tricky business trying to guess at arb awards and non-tender candidates, but my argument is that our situation doesn’t require more austerity.

Of course I agree with you that having cheap regulars helps payroll flexibility and therefore roster construction. I think we have that: Arroyo, Dalbec, Verdugo, Whitlock, Pivetta, and Houck are dirt-cheap; Renfroe, Kiké, Barnes and Devers far outperform their mid-range salaries (and Vazquez arguably justifies his); Eovaldi, Bogaerts and JDM are all worth their premium money, and Sale is a decent bet to rebound to his. We have no deadweight.

Back to Schwarber: the rationale for extending him is that it allows us to swap Verdugo for an equally valuable player elsewhere. The prevailing thinking is that there’s gonna be some massive market for designated hitters with the NL conversion, but I suspect it’ll be more like a market for outfielders, with teams shifting their lumbering sluggers to DH. Say the Sox extended Schwarber at 4/$80 and traded Verdugo to the Reds, a team with terrible outfield defense and surplus pitching, for, say, Sonny Gray and Nick Senzel. Wouldn’t we be a lot better?
 

Max Power

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With the exception of the aborted covid season, Schwarber's been a reliable ≈120+ OPS+ guy who's really broken out this year and looks like a prime DH candidate. And if the universal DH gets implemented this offseason and both JD and KS hit the market, you choose the younger guy as your DH of the immediate future. Verdugo managed to look really good during the abortive covid season, but has otherwise looked like an above average player. And if you have to choose between an anchor hitter and an above average guy, you go with the hitter. LF defense isn't that important.
Schwarber had 44 really great games from June to August this year, but has otherwise been between average and good with the bat throughout his whole career. The Cubs were so unsure of his performance that he was non-tendered at the end of 2020. Turning around and giving him JD Martinez's contract seems like a bigger risk than giving Sale 5 years when he was already injured.
 

nighthob

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I do wish that they'd signed Scwarber last winter. But at the end of the day Schwarber's "uncertain" years in 2018 and 2019 were better than Verdugo's.

Verdugo is an awful CF, he's strictly a corner OF, and Boston already has a good defensive RF. So if they have to choose two of Verdugo, Renfroe, and Schwarber then it's the latter two you want.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Schwarber is a mediocre defensive player, though. Feels like we are getting really excited over the shiny new toy without recognizing his limitations. He’s having a great year but a lot of it is fueled by a BABIP nearly 30 points higher than his career norms. His LD%, BB%, K% all seem in line with historicals. Both Schwarber and Verdugo are 2-3 win players.

Trading Verdugo seems premature; you need to be sure Duran can play and / or that Arroyo can stay healthy. It is not as if the team is flush with OF and 2B prospects to make a relatively inexpensive young player who could conceivably get better expendable.
 
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Rovin Romine

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Something has been wrong with Devers' arm going back to the last week in September
He hit in every game (often multiple hits, and once multiple home runs) Sept. 29, 30 and Oct. 1, 2, 3.

He was 0-2 in the WC game with 2 walks.

1-4 last night with 2Ks.

Unless there's been some discernible worsening of his condition in the past 4 days, he's probably good to play.
 

Gator4MVP88

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One thing he will need to work on in the offseason is shortening his swing if he is going to continue to swing as hard as he has been. He is still producing results, but it can't be good for his longevity. He's been in obvious discomfort and dealing with an issue in his right forearm since long before the WC game, which appears to be worsening and I have to believe it's coming from him trying to hit the ball 600 feet on every swing. He's been wearing a sleeve over that arm with tape under it, so I think he's battling tennis/golfers elbow (haven't seen DRS or radsoxfan post in a while- maybe they can give their $0.02?) Others have said wrist, but I think it's more of an elbow issue. His pain level after contact is unnoticeable, but it's very noticeable when he misses.

Going back to the series against the Nats:

Sun- 3rd AB, after fouling off a 1-2 pitch he's seen shaking his right arm; 4th AB swung hard at the first pitch and pulled the right arm off the bat early. Swung hard at 4th pitch (2-1 count, curveball) and dropped the bat in very obvious discomfort. Then he hit a line drive base hit to RC and drove in a run.

Sat- In his 2nd AB, he is seen flexing his forearm after a swing and miss, and later in the AB nails a HR.

Fri - Was wearing a sleeve but didn't have any swings and misses.

Going back further into the BAL series:

Thurs: He's wearing the sleeve still, and in his second AB swings and misses at an 0-1 fastball and shakes his right arm out afterward.

Wed: His sleeve is a shorter one, but the arm tape is still there. One swing and miss in his fourth AB; shook his arm a bit, but didn't seem that uncomfortable. In his 5th AB, swung and foul tipped strike three, again, didn't seem that uncomfortable.

Tues: Full arm sleeve; in his first AB after fouling off the first pitch, was shaking the right arm. He was also massaging his left oblique after some swings- might be another issue from swinging so hard.

Going back to the series against the Yankees, he is not wearing the right arm sleeve in the Saturday game; he's actually got a full sleeve on his left arm! I guess it validates Cora's statement that nobody is 100% this time of year. But, he had an awkward swing and miss at strike 3 in his 2nd AB. In his 3rd AB, he got a hit (first pitch swing), but after getting to first is kind of rotating and flexing that right forearm. In his next AB he now has some kind of sleeve on the lower half of his forearm before getting drilled in the side on the first pitch thrown to him. On Sunday he was wearing the full sleeve from the bicep to the wrist with forearm tape, so this evidence suggests it started Saturday against the Yankees. Until the AB late yesterday where he missed the 92 mph meatball, I don't think it's had a lot of impact on the results, but there's plenty to be concerned about here going forward. I would like to see him quit trying to hit the C ring with every swing, but I don't know if he can make that adjustment until the offseason.

I captured some screen shots before and after the forearm sleeve first appeared, but I don't see how to post them unless I have a URL.
 

soxhop411

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Something has been wrong with Devers' arm going back to the last week in September

View: https://imgur.com/a/IDDntBR
He hit in every game (often multiple hits, and once multiple home runs) Sept. 29, 30 and Oct. 1, 2, 3.

He was 0-2 in the WC game with 2 walks.

1-4 last night with 2Ks.

Unless there's been some discernible worsening of his condition in the past 4 days, he's probably good to play.
It seems to hurt most when he swings and misses. He should stop doing that.
and we have our answer
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Rafael Devers is dealing with discomfort in his right forearm, according to a major-league source. The condition flares up when the Red Sox third baseman swings and misses but is not a problem when he makes contact.
Devers has been dropping his bat after non-contact swings since the final stretch of the regular season. Devers started wearing a compression sleeve that stretches above and below his elbow on Sept. 26, one day after he struck out against Yankees lefty Nestor Cortes on an awkward swing.
Red Sox manager Alex Cora played defense when it came to answering an open-ended question about whether something was going on with Devers’s arm after Thursday’s loss to the Rays in Game 1 of the ALDS.
“A few days ago everybody said he was setting up the pitcher whenever he drops the bat – today because he didn’t get a hit, he is hurt?” said Cora. “You know, I mean, after 162 [games], things happen and you get treatment and you grind, you know? Not everybody is 100 percent right now, and he is posting. Like I said a few days ago, you know, he was dropping the bat the same way, and nobody said anything.”

Devers did not stop to speak with reporters as he walked to the team bus after the Game 1 loss, but he was wearing the same or similar compression sleeve he wore during the game on his right ar
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/10/08/sports/is-something-wrong-with-red-sox-third-baseman-rafael-devers-alex-cora-isnt-saying/?event=event25
 

tims4wins

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Funny, one of our MFY fan members (@Wingack @jon abbey ??) made mention of this recently, maybe in the WC game thread. Said something like “he’s gonna get hurt eventually if he keeps swinging this hard”.
 

CR67dream

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One thing he will need to work on in the offseason is shortening his swing if he is going to continue to swing as hard as he has been. He is still producing results, but it can't be good for his longevity. He's been in obvious discomfort and dealing with an issue in his right forearm since long before the WC game, which appears to be worsening and I have to believe it's coming from him trying to hit the ball 600 feet on every swing. He's been wearing a sleeve over that arm with tape under it, so I think he's battling tennis/golfers elbow (haven't seen DRS or radsoxfan post in a while- maybe they can give their $0.02?) Others have said wrist, but I think it's more of an elbow issue. His pain level after contact is unnoticeable, but it's very noticeable when he misses.

Going back to the series against the Nats:

Sun- 3rd AB, after fouling off a 1-2 pitch he's seen shaking his right arm; 4th AB swung hard at the first pitch and pulled the right arm off the bat early. Swung hard at 4th pitch (2-1 count, curveball) and dropped the bat in very obvious discomfort. Then he hit a line drive base hit to RC and drove in a run.

Sat- In his 2nd AB, he is seen flexing his forearm after a swing and miss, and later in the AB nails a HR.

Fri - Was wearing a sleeve but didn't have any swings and misses.

Going back further into the BAL series:

Thurs: He's wearing the sleeve still, and in his second AB swings and misses at an 0-1 fastball and shakes his right arm out afterward.

Wed: His sleeve is a shorter one, but the arm tape is still there. One swing and miss in his fourth AB; shook his arm a bit, but didn't seem that uncomfortable. In his 5th AB, swung and foul tipped strike three, again, didn't seem that uncomfortable.

Tues: Full arm sleeve; in his first AB after fouling off the first pitch, was shaking the right arm. He was also massaging his left oblique after some swings- might be another issue from swinging so hard.

Going back to the series against the Yankees, he is not wearing the right arm sleeve in the Saturday game; he's actually got a full sleeve on his left arm! I guess it validates Cora's statement that nobody is 100% this time of year. But, he had an awkward swing and miss at strike 3 in his 2nd AB. In his 3rd AB, he got a hit (first pitch swing), but after getting to first is kind of rotating and flexing that right forearm. In his next AB he now has some kind of sleeve on the lower half of his forearm before getting drilled in the side on the first pitch thrown to him. On Sunday he was wearing the full sleeve from the bicep to the wrist with forearm tape, so this evidence suggests it started Saturday against the Yankees. Until the AB late yesterday where he missed the 92 mph meatball, I don't think it's had a lot of impact on the results, but there's plenty to be concerned about here going forward. I would like to see him quit trying to hit the C ring with every swing, but I don't know if he can make that adjustment until the offseason.

I captured some screen shots before and after the forearm sleeve first appeared, but I don't see how to post them unless I have a URL.
If this doesn't earn a membership after 15 years of lurking, nothing does. Great breakdown, and welcome!
 

Gator4MVP88

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If this doesn't earn a membership after 15 years of lurking, nothing does. Great breakdown, and welcome!
It is with great humility that I accept. I'm certain I need SoSH more than SoSH needs me, but I'll do my best to bring something to the table.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Apropos of Devers’ swinging and missing…
If there were one thing I could change about baseball broadcasting (today, anyway) it would be the use of phrases like “swinging for the fences,” “going for the downs,” etc…
Has any of us ever seen a batter homer when they take the kind of huge swings Rafael was taking last night with runners on base? Of course not. You can’t hit it if you can’t see it, and nobody’s looking at the ball when they’re swinging that hard.
I’m not sure what the pat alternative would be. The long version would be something like, “he took a ridiculously huge swing, pulled his head off the ball, and didn’t have a chance in hell of making contact.”
Peeve petted, rant over.
 

joe dokes

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Apropos of Devers’ swinging and missing…
If there were one thing I could change about baseball broadcasting (today, anyway) it would be the use of phrases like “swinging for the fences,” “going for the downs,” etc…
Has any of us ever seen a batter homer when they take the kind of huge swings Rafael was taking last night with runners on base? Of course not. You can’t hit it if you can’t see it, and nobody’s looking at the ball when they’re swinging that hard.
I’m not sure what the pat alternative would be. The long version would be something like, “he took a ridiculously huge swing, pulled his head off the ball, and didn’t have a chance in hell of making contact.”
Peeve petted, rant over.
I was only half listening ("Smoltzing"?) but Smoltz might have mentioned pulling off when they showed a replay of one of his more absurd swings.