Rate the trade: Irving for Thomas/Crowder/Zizic Nets 18' pick

If you were the GM of the Celtics would you done this trade?

  • Yes

    Votes: 213 62.8%
  • No

    Votes: 126 37.2%

  • Total voters
    339

InstaFace

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For all the hand wringing that went on when this trade happened it’s pretty obvious Danny crushed this trade.
My hangwringing, and that of many other trade skeptics, was based on the idea that Brooklyn would convey in the top 3, or at worst in the top 5. If you'd told me that it would be #8, I think I'd have flipped to neutral or liking it.

Danny's ability to see that Brooklyn wasn't as abysmal as others - I dunno if that was a lucky guess (i.e., if he would have traded it if it were a top-3 pick) or if he truly could foresee it.
 

Big John

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Crowder actually played well this year after getting out of Cleveland and going to Utah. There seems to be something odd about the internal dynamics of this Cavs team. Irving may have sensed it a year ago.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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Crowder actually played well this year after getting out of Cleveland and going to Utah. There seems to be something odd about the internal dynamics of this Cavs team. Irving may have sensed it a year ago.
Actually, his usage went up and his efficiency dropped. Outside of PPG, he played the same or worse in just about every category.
 

bakahump

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Crowder actually played well this year after getting out of Cleveland and going to Utah. There seems to be something odd about the internal dynamics of this Cavs team. Irving may have sensed it a year ago.
I wonder what that could be.


"They Traded a 1000 Won Bill (Isaiah), a dime (Crowder), A wheat penny (Zizac) and a Possible 2 dollar winning Scratch ticket for a dollar.
Dammit Trump, you had to go and start moving towards Korean peace and ruin my analogy. And the Scratch ticket will probably end up a bust.

The Kyrie Buck also had a Phone number on it. I called and she at least sounds really really hot.
 

lovegtm

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My hangwringing, and that of many other trade skeptics, was based on the idea that Brooklyn would convey in the top 3, or at worst in the top 5. If you'd told me that it would be #8, I think I'd have flipped to neutral or liking it.

Danny's ability to see that Brooklyn wasn't as abysmal as others - I dunno if that was a lucky guess (i.e., if he would have traded it if it were a top-3 pick) or if he truly could foresee it.
I was on the record prior to the season saying that there would be a lot of tankers who would calibrate their end of the season records to be just under those of teams like Brooklyn. If I could make that guess, the Celtics definitely could do a lot better. Again, keep in mind that the Nets actually got somewhat unlucky with the Lin injury.

EDIT: The Celtics also took advantage of anchoring bias. People had seen Brooklyn convey high picks two years straight, and probably overly weighted that in predicting 2017-2018 lottery rankings.
 

nighthob

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How many GMs have had worse performance to praise ratios than Koby Altman?

His tenure has primarily consisted of two trades, both of which he was widely lauded for: The Kyrie trade, and the deadline blowup.

His return:
1. an 8 pick and Jae Crowder for Kyrie Irving (in his prime with two more seasons under contract)
2. Rodney Hood and George Hill for Jae Crowder
3. Jordan Clarkson (unplayable) and Larry Nance Jr. (almost unplayable) for a late first rounder

That's really brutal, especially considering the public victory laps the Cavs were taking for those trades.
It's hard to blame Altman for the Irving situation, because his predecessor was the one that screwed this up (one of his very few mistakes, but unfortunately a hugely expensive one). If Griffin had talked to Irving last June before initiating trade talks with the Suns things would have gone differently, but then word about the deal leaked (probably from Phoenix's end, not sure what McDonough & Co. were thinking there, were they hoping that Irving would demand a trade to a lottery team for pennies on the dollar?) and all hell broke loose.

After that, when Altman took over, he was dealing with an unhappy star that had a full no trade clause. So any deal had to meet with Irving's approval. He did about as well as he could given the real limited options that Kyrie's camp gave the Cavs.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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My hangwringing, and that of many other trade skeptics, was based on the idea that Brooklyn would convey in the top 3, or at worst in the top 5. If you'd told me that it would be #8, I think I'd have flipped to neutral or liking it.

Danny's ability to see that Brooklyn wasn't as abysmal as others - I dunno if that was a lucky guess (i.e., if he would have traded it if it were a top-3 pick) or if he truly could foresee it.
Prior to the season, Pelton had BRK as 4th worst winning 29.5 games, but given that PHO (30.3), NYK and IND (32), and ORL (32.2) were all pretty close and a good number of them were going to be playing for a better draft position, I don't think it took advanced metrics to figure out that BRK was unlikely to hit bottom again.
 

Big John

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Hindsight is 20-20. It was a fair deal when made. It was not Ainge's job to determine if IT and Crowder would be good fits in Cleveland, or where the Nets pick would land. If the Cavs hadn't let Spencer Dinwiddie beat them last October they might be picking much higher. Was that loss Ainge's fault? The Cavs fleeced themselves.
 

j-man

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I want you to pick all my lottery numbers and stocks from now on. Good call.
thanks it was dicey for a while in late march but they got hot and are now sat up for 5 years at least a lineup of Hoford C Tatum PF Hayward SF J Brown sg And Iring at pg with smart as the 6th man and morris at 7 means u are the only team in the nba that can stop GS for the next 3 years
 

lovegtm

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It's hard to blame Altman for the Irving situation, because his predecessor was the one that screwed this up (one of his very few mistakes, but unfortunately a hugely expensive one). If Griffin had talked to Irving last June before initiating trade talks with the Suns things would have gone differently, but then word about the deal leaked (probably from Phoenix's end, not sure what McDonough & Co. were thinking there, were they hoping that Irving would demand a trade to a lottery team for pennies on the dollar?) and all hell broke loose.

After that, when Altman took over, he was dealing with an unhappy star that had a full no trade clause. So any deal had to meet with Irving's approval. He did about as well as he could given the real limited options that Kyrie's camp gave the Cavs.
I agree with that. I was referring to the praise Altman got for both deals, which seemed overblown at the time, and looks ridiculous in hindsight.
 

benhogan

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I say we all make a date to come back here in June 2018, right after the draft, and talk about whether this was a good trade. I'm very skeptical, but am willing to admit I may be wrong. I'd propose one ground rule though: No complaining, on either side, about where the Nets pick lands, as if this is a completely unpredictable thing. Where the pick lands isn't simply a matter of chance -- it's a function of where you think the Nets will end the season (a skill-based forecast) and then, given that final ranking, what the ping pong ball odds are of drafting in given slots. One reason I hate the trade is I think Ainge gave away what's probably a top five pick in a loaded draft. And I also don't think the Lakers pick will convey.
June is right around the corner and Instaface gave up his mea culpa.

Don't feel bad, at least you didn't double down and also criticize the Fultz/Tatum deal.

We are in good hands with Danny, Brad & Co. Trust the Progress!
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I agree with that. I was referring to the praise Altman got for both deals, which seemed overblown at the time, and looks ridiculous in hindsight.
went back through some old reports and Altman could have had Bledsoe, Bender, and MIA's pick this year for Irving. I still think that was a better deal for CLE.

Also one report said that DEN was willing to trade Harris and #13 for Love. Though it was really unlikely CLE would have held onto it and picked Mitchell, seeing him and LBJ together would have been some show.
 

kazuneko

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Scal has indicated on recent Celtics broadcasts that he had intel that they would have selected Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in ‘18 had they not traded the pick in the Kyrie deal. Pretty interesting alternative scenario there.
— Chad Finn (@GlobeChadFinn) November 15, 2022
 

BigSoxFan

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Scal has indicated on recent Celtics broadcasts that he had intel that they would have selected Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in ‘18 had they not traded the pick in the Kyrie deal. Pretty interesting alternative scenario there.
— Chad Finn (@GlobeChadFinn) November 15, 2022
Who knows but that definitely does sting. At least we didn’t pick Kevin Knox over Shai…
 

Jake Peavy's Demons

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It's possible we could have had a lineup of:

SGA
Desmond Bane
Jaylen Brown
Jayson Tatum
TimeLord

Yes? Or perhaps Bane would've been dealt off for more BIG help. Maybe no Horford renaissance either.
 

The Social Chair

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Ainge is good at drafting with his own picks and extraordinary, years later, at drafting with picks he didn't have.
 

BigSoxFan

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Ainge is good at drafting with his own picks and extraordinary, years later, at drafting with picks he didn't have.
Your point is valid. Front office types always use hindsight to say who they’d take but I will say that Tatum over Fultz is a good data point that Ainge may not be full of shit on some of these.

Still is fun to dream about adding SGA to Tatum/Brown though. Not sure we’d even be able to afford that trio anyways.
 

lexrageorge

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At the time of the trade, Ainge was also aware that he likely had 2 additional first round picks that would convey down the line, so trading the pick that would unknowingly turn into SGA seemed worth it at the time. Of course, Sacramento ending up with their highest winning percentage in 13 years and the Grizzlies winning the Morant sweepstakes screwed up the plan.

Hey, but the Brown/Tatum/Smart picks are working out really well, so it's hard to get too worked up anymore over Ainge's misstep with Kyrie, especially as it probably indirectly led to Stevens getting Ainge's job.
 

moondog80

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It's fun to wonder, but even if they had drafted SGA instead of trading for Kyrie, there's no guarantee things worked out the same way. Maybe one of SGA/Jaylen/Tatum doesn't develop as much in a lesser role. Certainly there would be difficult decisions to make with all three of them under the salary cap. I'm pretty happy with the way things have worked out and I'm not sure I'd risk the unknown ripple effects to go back in time and nix the trade.
 

DavidTai

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Thing is, IIRC, they didn't trade the #8 pick. They traded a pick that -would- eventually become the #8 pick before the season started, so they had no idea where, exactly, that pick would end up. That was a bone of contention for LeBron, who wanted that pick traded for more help, if I recall.

I imagine the only way Scalabrine's statement is not full of crap is if, for fun, Ainge and his front office had an informal "What if we still had the pick' poll and went with SGA during the draft.
 

kazuneko

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At the time of the trade, Ainge was also aware that he likely had 2 additional first round picks that would convey down the line, so trading the pick that would unknowingly turn into SGA seemed worth it at the time.
This is ignoring the fact that nearly everyone in the league felt that the 2018 draft was going to be one of the best ever. Because of that, the pick was far more valued than any other Celtic draft asset, and giving it up was the single biggest risk of the trade (with number 2 being Kyrie’s problematic personality). If it’s really true that Ainge would have picked SGA, that means the too concerns people had at the time turned out ended up being realized.
 

kazuneko

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Thing is, IIRC, they didn't trade the #8 pick. They traded a pick that -would- eventually become the #8 pick before the season started, so they had no idea where, exactly, that pick would end up. That was a bone of contention for LeBron, who wanted that pick traded for more help, if I recall.
Actually the pick slipping to number 8 would have been seen as a surprise. At the time of the trade it was an unprotected number 1 pick for the worst team in the league for a draft that was seen as possibly the best ever. That pick had a ton of value..
 

Van Everyman

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In this case, all this does is make a bad trade look worse, so I’m not sure why Ainge (if he’s the source) would lie..
Unless I'm missing something, this feels to me like Danny perhaps casually shared w Scal that SGA had been on their radar until they traded their pick -- not some covert intel divulged in a parking garage.
 

lexrageorge

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This is ignoring the fact that nearly everyone in the league felt that the 2018 draft was going to be one of the best ever. Because of that, the pick was far more valued than any other Celtic draft asset, and giving it up was the single biggest risk of the trade (with number 2 being Kyrie’s problematic personality). If it’s really true that Ainge would have picked SGA, that means the too concerns people had at the time turned out ended up being realized.
I've seen posters and writers criticize Ainge for "holding on" to his draft assets for too long. Yet when there was a clear case of using a draft asset to add a really good player, he's criticized for trading the pick. Kyrie was a risk, but similar things could have been said for a lot of star players that get traded. Obviously, knowing what we know now that risk was much higher than Ainge probably expected.

The only problem with the hypothetical of Ainge selecting SGA is that we cannot say for sure what would have happened if the team's scouting focus was directed towards looking at the likely player pool for the 2018 draft. Would SGA still had been the top choice for Ainge at that draft slot? Or would the scouts had instead recommended Colin Sexton or Mikal Bridges or (gulp) Miles Bridges over SGA?
 

DavidTai

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Actually the pick slipping to number 8 would have been seen as a surprise. At the time of the trade it was an unprotected number 1 pick for the worst team in the league for a draft that was seen as possibly the best ever. That pick had a ton of value..
Right. But I can't picture Ainge projecting SGA -that- highly at the time the pick was traded, which is the point of this little discussion. The only way I can see Ainge picking SGA at #8 is if he was doing the projecting -after- the pick was already traded and around the time of the actual draft.
 

InstaFace

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Hey, but the Brown/Tatum/Smart picks are working out really well, so it's hard to get too worked up anymore over Ainge's misstep with Kyrie, especially as it probably indirectly led to Stevens getting Ainge's job.
I'm not sure anyone is worked up over a misstep, not least because it's by no means clear that it was a misstep.

I've come around (as seen upthread) to the idea that this was a lateral move at worst, with plenty of upside to be a big win. The fact that the pick that conveyed could have been used to select SGA is totally irrelevant. The major value at the time traded a broken or nearly-broken IT4 for a very usable Kyrie, who was not yet known to be the absolute loose cannon he would become here and then get worse in Brooklyn.

What was the alternative that was on Ainge's table at the time? Hope that IT4 would recover to his MVP-candidate levels? We all knew that was an absolute pipe dream.
 

kazuneko

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Right. But I can't picture Ainge projecting SGA -that- highly at the time the pick was traded, which is the point of this little discussion. The only way I can see Ainge picking SGA at #8 is if he was doing the projecting -after- the pick was already traded and around the time of the actual draft.
I think that’s what Scal was suggesting - though it’s hard to through second hand reports.
 

Koufax

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I voted "No" from the get-go because I thought that giving up Ante Žižić was a bridge too far. That now seems like a laser focus on the wrong point. But today, would you give up Luke Kornet for Žižić?
 

Euclis20

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I voted "No" from the get-go because I thought that giving up Ante Žižić was a bridge too far. That now seems like a laser focus on the wrong point. But today, would you give up Luke Kornet for Žižić?
Same, I voted no because I didn't want to give up IT.
 

kazuneko

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I'm not sure anyone is worked up over a misstep, not least because it's by no means clear that it was a misstep.
I've come around (as seen upthread) to the idea that this was a lateral move at worst, with plenty of upside to be a big win.
I'm not sure how you conceive this as "a lateral move". Can't say I've ever heard a "win now" trade called that. The biggest asset the Cs gave up wasn't a player similar to KI but a highly valued draft pick that could have turned into something more valuable than what was received (i.e. KI). Arguably that's exactly what happened.
What was the alternative that was on Ainge's table at the time? Hope that IT4 would recover to his MVP-candidate levels? We all knew that was an absolute pipe dream. That the pick that conveyed could have been used to select SGA is totally irrelevant.
How is that irrelevant? A young SGA on a rookie contract is infinitely more valuable than an expensive, personality-disordered Kyrie on a two-year deal. I don't know how that is even arguable. And I'm mystified by the idea that "Ainge had no alternative" and the only other option was hoping "IT would return to his MVP-candidate levels". As it turns out, the better alternative was pretty, damn simple: doing nothing. That's always the better option than picking up a guy who arguably provided negative value for a draft pick that could have turned into a player with perennial All-Star potential.
I mean, let's face it, the highlight of Kyrie's 2-year Celtic career came when an injury saved the Cs from his “leadership” and the Cs subsequently came one win from the Finals in the 2017-2018 playoffs. You really think the Cs significantly benefited from his presence on the team, or that that “benefit” was worth a young SGA on a rookie contract?
The major value at the time traded a broken or nearly-broken IT4 for a very usable Kyrie, who was not yet known to be the absolute loose cannon he would become here and then get worse in Brooklyn.
Yeah, he wasn’t yet basketball’s answer to an unmedicated Kanye, but that doesn’t mean the personality issues were unknown to the league. In fact, there were teams who passed on trading for him for this very reason (most notably Phoenix) and those concerns were very much part of the discussion at the time.
Ainge knew the risk and rolled the dice anyway. We now know that wasn’t a gamble worth taking.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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I'm not sure how you conceive this as "a lateral move". Can't say I've ever heard a "win now" trade called that. The biggest asset the Cs gave up wasn't a player similar to KI but a highly valued draft pick that could have turned into something more valuable than what was received (i.e. KI). Arguably that's exactly what happened.
The odds of that pick even at #1 or #2 being better than KI - who at that time a perennial All-Star and probably considered a borderline HOFers - was small. If DA figured that BRK, because they played hard and were well coached, would pull off enough wins that they would't be #1 or #2, then he probably factored that into the equation.

The other thing that people haven't mentioned is that the IT4 would have been a terrible contract negotiation and might have set a bad precedent for JT and JB.

DA was gunning for a title. He wasn't gunning for five years of rookie development. I'm sure he had no idea what Kyrie would become. Obviously, if he did, that would change the analysis but it's hard to fault DA for going out and getting a perennial All-Star.
 

BigSoxFan

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You do the Kyrie trade 10 times out of 10. At the time, nobody knew how crazy he was and the thought was that he was just a disgruntled star who couldn’t share the spotlight with LeBron, no different than the KG/Marbury separation.
 

Cellar-Door

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yeah any discussion based around SGA in assessing the trade is just nonsense. There is zero real reason to think that was even a consideration, it's classic Ainge (oh if we hadn't done this we would have definitely done the best possible thing in alternative).
The Irving trade was a good one. They traded a lottery pick that was more likely than not to be outside the top 3 and trash for an All-Star talent, a bunch of things went wrong later, but it was still a great trade.
 

moondog80

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You do the Kyrie trade 10 times out of 10. At the time, nobody knew how crazy he was and the thought was that he was just a disgruntled star who couldn’t share the spotlight with LeBron, no different than the KG/Marbury separation.
Of course. Every single GM ever makes that trade.
 

lexrageorge

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I'm not sure how you conceive this as "a lateral move". Can't say I've ever heard a "win now" trade called that. The biggest asset the Cs gave up wasn't a player similar to KI but a highly valued draft pick that could have turned into something more valuable than what was received (i.e. KI). Arguably that's exactly what happened.
Your claim of "what happened" is solely through hindsight.

Celtics had an asset in the final Brooklyn pick. What was not known at the time is where it would end up. Maybe it's #1 again. But there were a lot of bad teams scrambling for that position: Phoenix, Bulls, Magic, Mavs, Grizzlies, Kings, Lakers, Knicks, et al. Turns out only a handful of wins separated all those teams. So who really knows, and the Nets did make some trades to try to at least draw fans as opposed to completely tank. Hell, nobody thought the Kings pick would fall all the way to #14 the one year the Celtics owned it, but it did.

The other assumption is that the Celtics would have picked SGA, and that is not a given, regardless of what Ainge claims years after the fact.

Chances of any player out of that draft being as good as prime Kyrie were low. Yes, today SGA is far more valuable than the 2022 version of Kyrie, but that was not forseeable in 2018.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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You do the Kyrie trade 10 times out of 10. At the time, nobody knew how crazy he was and the thought was that he was just a disgruntled star who couldn’t share the spotlight with LeBron, no different than the KG/Marbury separation.
Except better than Marbury and with a championship ring already.

(Compared to Irving, Marbury did end up the more stable person of the two.)
 

kazuneko

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The other thing that people haven't mentioned is that the IT4 would have been a terrible contract negotiation and might have set a bad precedent for JT and JB.
I will say the one thing Ainge did get right was choosing to let IT go when he did. That said, if he really knew that IT was about to fall off a cliff then he wouldn't have been worried much about IT's pending free agency. As we know now, IT after his hip injury was never going to land a contact of any significance. Either way you don't make a trade of this significance because you're afraid of a contract negotiation.
DA was gunning for a title. He wasn't gunning for five years of rookie development. I'm sure he had no idea what Kyrie would become. Obviously, if he did, that would change the analysis but it's hard to fault DA for going out and getting a perennial All-Star.
Again, other teams avoided Kyrie because of concerns about his personality and those teams were proven correct. Ainge overlooked those concerns and we know now that he shouldn't have. It's not 20/20 hindsight to blame someone for ignoring concerns other people had at the time of the trade.
You do the Kyrie trade 10 times out of 10. At the time, nobody knew how crazy he was and the thought was that he was just a disgruntled star who couldn’t share the spotlight with LeBron, no different than the KG/Marbury separation.
As I remember it, Marbury was also a head case - so I find it a bit odd that he'd be seen as a positive point of comparison. And let's also remember that unlike the chronically middling Timberwolves, Kyrie was unhappy on a perennial championship contender, who had just raised a banner the year before the trade request. And again, it's hard to say "nobody knew how crazy" Kyrie was when there were teams who were concerned enough about those issues that they didn't pursue a trade for him.
But anyway, I 'm not saying this was a horrible trade that was indefensible at the time. I'm saying that there were risks to the trade that were known at the time that Ainge decided to overlook, and in retrospect he shouldn’t have.
That said, I will admit that he was dead-on in his assessment of IT’s future worth. I remember at the time that many wondered if Kyrie was really enough of an upgrade over IT to warrant how much the Cs attached to him. After all, this trade came just a couple of months after IT had what was arguably his best season and placed 5th in the MVP vote. We now know that IT never again would be close to the same player again, and in fact, Ainge chose the perfect time to move on from him.
That said, for many of us the biggest concern was giving up that 2018 pick, and most importantly, whether or not Kyrie was the guy you’d want to cash that in for considering his questionable character. Those concerns were clearly valid.
 
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benhogan

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I will say the one thing Ainge did get right was choosing to let IT go when he did. That said, if he really knew that IT was about to fall off a cliff then he wouldn't have been worried much about IT's pending free agency. As we know now, IT after his hip injury was never going to land a contact of any significance. Either way you don't make a trade of this significance because you're afraid of a contract negotiation.
Good point on IT. Some of Danny's best moves were the ones he avoided or didn't make.

I'd also say letting Gordon Hayward go to Charlotte for 4YRS/$120M, for the TPE/future flexibility was another Danny masterstroke. The immediate knock-on effect of letting Gordon move on (besides GH's inability to stay on a basketball court) led to more JAYs emphasis, Marcus Smart starting and pushing Grant to a more prominent bench role. The TPE/cap space gave President Brad the "flexibility" to add JRich & trade for Theis last season. It subsequently led to the White/Brogdon heists.

Hat tip to Danny (and @nighthob who suggested Hayward trades) for not panicking when Gordo took his talents (& Gamer chair) to North Carolina
 
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ragnarok725

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You do the Kyrie trade 10 times out of 10. At the time, nobody knew how crazy he was and the thought was that he was just a disgruntled star who couldn’t share the spotlight with LeBron, no different than the KG/Marbury separation.
I'll push back on this. I voted no on this poll back in the day because Kyrie believed the earth was flat, promoted that idea, and there were think pieces at the time about the effect it was having on kids. Add that to him asking out of what was objectively a good situation with LeBron and the Cavs and it was clear to me (and Phoenix as well) that this guy was not worth the investment.

I hated this trade at the time, and hated it more and more every day since. It doesn't matter who would have been selected with the pick, it was a huge asset and an overpay for the headcase that was Kyrie.