RD2/#62 - Brady's Heir to the Throne

[Tony C]

to me it's quite insulting, and a less than subtle dig by BB at Polian...which I love!

 

[Phragle]

I think that is probably what BB meant and you basically agree with him, but feel free to take your ball and go home. He didn't say he wouldn't want to be the Colts, he said he doesn't want to put his team together in a way where losing one player would destroy their chances.

 
So we need how many Super Bowl caliber QBs do we need? How good where the backups of previous SB winners?

 

[soxhop411]

 
One step. Two steps. Three steps. Get the pass off.
Take the snap. Set your feet. Fire.
Those directions should have been written on the inside of the Eastern Illinois quarterbacks' facemasks last season. There were instances when quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was allowed to take a five-step drop and go through his progressions, but more often he would take the snap and fire the ball to his first read as quickly as possible. If the stopwatch hit 1.5 seconds, and the ball was still in his hands, he likely wasn't doing his job as instructed.
Even in this simplistic offense, where the first read is the only read most of the time, you can see the potential that Garoppolo possesses, and why the New England Patriots decided to make him their second-round pick. He has flaws, and played against a level of competition that is essentially the football's version of Double A, but those moments come to light when Garoppolo is allowed to hold onto the ball, take a five-step drop, and make his own decisions.
One such moment came against Towson last year with 7 minutes, 54 seconds remaining in the first quarter. He takes a snap from the shotgun and sets his feet. His first read is covered, so he pump fakes, turns and then looks up the middle to his second read. That receiver is also covered. Garoppolo shifts further left, and fires a pass to an open receiver for a first down. His footwork on the play stands out more than anything else, and this is also the first time during the game when he looks an NFL quarterback.
His poise and footwork during the play look like something out of Tom Brady's repertoire. There's a reason for that. Garoppolo has modeled his game after the Patriots quarterback.
"His poise in the pocket is so impressive," Garoppolo said. "He really does a great job of taking control of the offense. He never really loses his cool. He's always cool, calm and collected in the pocket and that's what I try to do."
It will take quite a while before we know if Garoppolo can be an NFL quarterback, and if the skills he displayed in college translate to this level, but he already appears to be a better fit than Ryan Mallett was for the New England offense.
Mallett often appears uncomfortable leading the offense during his preseason cameos, struggling to deliver accurate passes on the short and intermediate passes that the Patriots predominately feature. Perhaps it should have been obvious before he was selected in the third round of the 2011 draft, but he would be best served operating in a more vertical offense.
Garoppolo isn't that kind of player. He has the touch to deliver deep passes, but he shines in the short-to-intermediate area of the field, which is where the bulk of his 5,050 passing yards came from last season. Quite often he would take a quick three-step drop or immediately set his feet and fire off a pass. It isn't uncommon to see Brady take a similar approach while leading the New England offense.
And unlike Mallett, Garoppolo has impressive accuracy in this area of the field, as evidenced by his 66 percent completion rate. He also knows how to look off his first read to manipulate the defense even though the first option was often his only option at Eastern Illinois. While things will be much more complex in the NFL, it's easy to see him hitting a slot receiver or tight end over the middle or firing off a quick screen to a receiver or running back in the New England offense.
And when he isn't getting the ball out of his hands as fast as possible (he averaged 2.03 seconds from snap to release during two timed games), Garoppolo shows good field vision and is poised in the pocket.
"He's got a lot of qualities that we admire in a quarterback," Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. "He's been a very productive player – little different level of competition, but hopefully he can make that adjustment. With the situation we have at quarterback, I think that we felt as an organization that we needed to address that to some degree in the future, so we'll see how all that works out but I think you're better off being early than late at that position."
Perhaps the Patriots are early at this spot – maybe even too early. Mallett is entering the final year of his contract, and is likely to leave one way or another before next season, which means that Garoppolo will soon become Brady's top backup. However, his future could hold much more.
After the pick was made, Belichick acknowledged that Brady will soon be 37 and is closer to the end of his career than the beginning. That could mean that, three or four years down the road, if Garoppolo continues to develop, he could be end up being Brady's successor. During a conference call after he was picked, Garoppolo alluded to the fact that he would like to be New England's version of Aaron Rodgers.
The foundation and requisite skills are there for him to possibly become that type of play, but there is still a sleep hill for him to climb. Even though he performed well at the Senior Bowl, no one knows how Garoppolo will react when facing elite competition. And though he has an extremely quick release, his throwing motion is a bit awkward and might need to be reworked to some degree.
He also needs to learn how to better drive the ball into tight areas of the field, and show that he has the mental capacity to digest a more complex offense after playing in a rather simple on in college.
The good news is that he will have time to fix all of those things and better hone his skills. Barring injury, Brady isn't going anywhere, and could potentially outlast Garoppolo. Realistically, the rookie might not have a chance to start until the final year of his rookie deal, when Brady will be 41.
So Garoppolo will have all the time he needs to get polished up and learn the offense before the team needs him to shine. And if he turns out to be the wrong the player, the Patriots will known ahead of time and be able to find someone else to potentially replace Brady.
"Organizationally, in our organization, I don't think we could put together a team the way Indianapolis did it (in 2011)," Belichick said. "They lost (Peyton) Manning and go 1-15 or whatever it was (it was 2-14). I don't think that's what we're working for."
If Garoppolo meets his promise, and manages to adjust to better competition, the Patriots should never have to worry about suffering a similar fate. 

http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2014/05/film_review_getting_familiar_w_2.html
 
I like what I am hearing

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
That's a pretty insulting statement by BB, based solely on hindsight.. Sorgi was thought to be basically Cassell and they picked up Collins. And had Orlovsky. How is that not being better prepared than 2008? BB is right that his team didn't crash that year, but it's not because of the team's outstanding depth at QB.

Sorgi was retired by then, they had Curtis Painter, he was bad enough that without even letting him play a game they signed a 39 year old out of retirement to be the starter. They then added Orlovsky mid-season who had been the 3rd stringer in HOU for two years prior. Maybe you could argue that they thought Painter was their Cassel, but he was in his third year and they didn't trust him to the extent that as soon as Manning had surgery they signed a 39 year old Kerry Collins and didn't even let Painter compete to win the job out of camp.

 

[Darnell's Son]

I call bullshit that it's based solely on hindsight. The Colts banked on Manning never being injured and when he did get hurt, they had to turn to recently retired Kerry "fucking" Collins and later the immortal Curtis Painter. Cassell was more than serviceable. It's not Belichick's fault he knew that he could do well with Cassell while the Colts had no insurance policy.

 

[Royal Reader]

Regardless of what fans might want, a 1-15 season is always going to get the coach shown the door.  Maybe with Belichick's track record he's the one exception, but it's unsurprising he doesn't want to find out.

Painter may have been considered to be basically Cassel, but whoever thought that was obviously wrong.  Collins was basically done, he'd been terrible the previous season in Tennessee.  And they cut Orlovsky in camp in favor of those two.  The problems with the 'Well, we'll just have one terrible season then draft another generational talent' model have been adequately explained by others, so I won't rehash them.  I'm sympathetic to the idea of just wanting one more ring for Brady - it's probably been my biggest desire in sports since the 2006 AFCCG - but presumably, if Belichick had thought a guy who made this significantly more likely was available and unlikely to fall to the end of the third, he'd had drafted that guy.  It may even have been that Stork was the next guy on their board anyway - that Bill Belichick's draft board doesn't look like Mel Kiper's isn't a knock on BB.

 

[Shelterdog]

 
So we need how many Super Bowl caliber QBs do we need? How good where the backups of previous SB winners?

 
Doug Williams, Hostetler, Dilfer, Morrall, Plunkett and Brady all were backups and they all won SBs.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
So we need how many Super Bowl caliber QBs do we need? How good where the backups of previous SB winners?

Well, Tom Brady was pretty good.

Others off top of my head who stepped in and led their team to the promised land.......Trent Dilfer, Doug Williams, Jeff Hostetler. I was very young but recall Bob Griese being out not sure if Don Strock led them to a championship though.

 

[Darnell's Son]

Regardless of what fans might want, a 1-15 season is always going to get the coach shown the door.  Maybe with Belichick's track record he's the one exception, but it's unsurprising he doesn't want to find out.

 
He might show himself the door if he witnessed a season like that.

 

[Golddust Man]

Sorgi was retired by then, they had Curtis Painter, he was bad enough that without even letting him play a game they signed a 39 year old out of retirement to be the starter. They then added Orlovsky mid-season who had been the 3rd stringer in HOU for two years prior. Maybe you could argue that they thought Painter was their Cassel, but he was in his third year and they didn't trust him to the extent that as soon as Manning had surgery they signed a 39 year old Kerry Collins and didn't even let Painter compete to win the job out of camp.

 
True. trying to check the QB depth for both teams and must have had the 08 Colts up. Point still stands though: Our QB depth was nothing to brag about, and any of us would have preferred Collins starting over Cassell once TB went down.

 

[Golddust Man]

I call bullshit that it's based solely on hindsight. The Colts banked on Manning never being injured and when he did get hurt, they had to turn to recently retired Kerry "fucking" Collins and later the immortal Curtis Painter. Cassell was more than serviceable. It's not Belichick's fault he knew that he could do well with Cassell while the Colts had no insurance policy.

 
Collins was brought in before the season as insurance if PM couldn't start the season. Polian tried to prepare but Collins wound up playing poorly.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

You keep saying this but it's not getting any more true. BB's ONLY goal is to draft players who will best help the NE Patriots win games. Agreed? As a part of this he very clearly takes need into consideration, that's why he drafted 3 WRs last year and beefed up the lines this year. It would be illogical to draft the best player at a position of overlap if your own internal projections have the marginal value of said player lower than another, slightly inferior player at a position of need. He's a highly intelligent, highly logical human being who doesn't make rudimentary, illogical mistakes with one of the most important decisions of his year.

Now, do you and he agree that JG was the best marginal upgrade available at the second round? Perhaps not. I'm not sure I agree with his priorities of preventing 1-15 vs winning a Super Bowl*. If this was about 2017 I'm more on board. He's not saying it, so I'm speculating, but I believe Brady's age and more volatile than usual performance in 2013 factored into the decision. I'm confident he didn't make an irrational decision based on an arbitrary draft rule.

*these two things may actually be the same thing. I.e., BB appears to believe that winning regular season games and making the playoffs is the key to winning a Super Bowl and not building mega teams with a short window.

 
Uggh.  I keep saying it because it is true.  It's why he leaves so many folks scratching their heads year after year. IIts how they draft.  It's how they've drafted for years.   Just go back and look at BB's quotes following the drafts over the years.  Don't even bother looking too far.  Here's his quote from yesterday in regards to Easley:
 


 

“We felt like he was the best player at that point,” said Belichick.
 

 
Do I agree that BB drafts to win football games?  Absolutely, but that is not mutually exclusive with drafting the best player available either.  Do I think it's a rule that they stick to at all times?  Of course not, but I believe they did so with this pick, and the Easley pick before it.  Like I said, there have been so many picks over the years where people questioned the decision to go in a certain direction, and almost every single time, BB's response has been something along the lines of the quote above.  
 
The real debate is how he quantifies need.  Maybe he also thinks that in addition to being the best player on the board, a third QB was the most pressing need for the team.  That's where I completely disagree, but as they say, that's why they play the games. 

 

[Royal Reader]

 Point still stands though: Our QB depth was nothing to brag about, and any of us would have preferred Collins starting over Cassell once TB went down.

 

Well yeah, but that's 2008 Collins, who still had a pulse.

Many of us did want the Pats to trade a fourth or something for the 2008 equivalent of Collins - Jeff Garcia - or bring in another veteran, but Belichick held firm with 'Matt Cassel is the QB of this team.'  Cassel perfomed at least as well as any of the guys folks on messageboards were calling for would've done, and probably better.

 

[Golddust Man]

I meant a similar version to Collins, like Garcia who you mention. A seasoned pro. 

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
True. trying to check the QB depth for both teams and must have had the 08 Colts up. Point still stands though: Our QB depth was nothing to brag about, and any of us would have preferred Collins starting over Cassell once TB went down.

Probably because we hadn't seen Cassell, but the point is more that after having seen Cassel for 3 years Bill was confident he could be the starter. IND did not feel the same about Painter, it shows poor planning to have a backup you don't have any confidence in, then having to scramble through retired players to find a starting QB.

 

[Golddust Man]

He did ok with Testaverde too, and Brady. Gotta give the man his props, he hasn't struck out on a QB yet. I think that says tons about TB's primary backup the past few years.

 

[Jungleland]

Phragle, The point of hashing out the throwaway Colts comment is that it's the very reason I and I assume others disagree with the "too early for the successor, too high pick for Mallett's replacement" argument. If it's clear that that's not how Bill sees the post Brady team building process going then figuring out the best alternative approach appears to me the crux of the debate. Regardless, I agree there's little to be gained from further debating the merits of that particular team. No disagreement here that we'd all be happy if the transition were so simple. For the record, I'm probably as optimistic as you are in regards to the longevity of Brady's career. I just don't think that that optimism = waste of a pick. 
 
 

 
The real debate is how he quantifies need.  Maybe he also thinks that in addition to being the best player on the board, a third QB was the most pressing need for the team.  That's where I completely disagree, but as they say, that's why they play the games. 

 
Is this statement troll baiting? He was drafted to be QB2 in a year's time, and potentially QB1 in year four. At some point you have to find a new QB. There are only so many options for doing so:
 
A) High pick gained by sucking/tanking/massive trade
B) Free agency
C) Hitting on a QB later in the draft
D) Trade
 
That it appears we're on attempt 2 at option C isn't surprising at all. Factoring in Brady's age, Mallett's impending departure, and the potential that we might be looking at a few years of elite defense for the first time in nearly a decade, using a second rounder for a future lottery ticket and insurance policy doesn't seem like a waste to me at all. Criticizing the pick for being a too cute attempt to take the "best player on their board" seems to me a combination of A) overstating the holes on the current roster B) underrating the need to start the successor search C) overestimating the difference in odds between a position player helping them this year vs. a QB helping them in later years. I just fundamentally disagree with the idea that the draft was going to seriously swing their championship chances this year. And if we're allowing ourselves to look to the future in regards to how a position player might fill a long term hole it seems insane to me to not consider that Brady's replacement may be needed nearly as soon as Vince Wilfork's or Darrelle Revis's.

 

[Royal Reader]

He did ok with Testaverde too, and Brady. Gotta give the man his props, he hasn't struck out on a QB yet. I think that says tons about TB's primary backup the past few years.

Belichick?  He absolutely struck out on O'Connell.  

 

[Golddust Man]

He has struck out on many draft picks. He hasn't been wrong on those relied upon to start if need be, which as TBs only backup, Mallet was.

 

[Super Nomario]

You asked,
 
then said this,
 
so I think you answered your own question. 

My point is, there are 7 roster spots that go to player who aren't active on Sunday. On any given week, most of those will probably be dictated by non-IR injuries, but there are always 2-3 redshirt slots for guys who are inactive most weeks. I don't see why you'd object to redshirting a QB as opposed to any other position.
 

 
And what is your money on, hangin them up now or playing til he's 40?

Playing 'til he's 40. But playing 16 games a year 'til he's 40? I doubt it. Again, I'm happy to be wrong here. I 100% agree with you that Brady is tough as nails and will play through anything it's humanly possible to play through, but there are injuries it isn't humanly possible to play through, and they're more likely to happen to football players who are 37 than those who are 27.

 

[Royal Reader]

He has struck out on many draft picks. He hasn't been wrong on those relied upon to start if need be, which as TBs only backup, Mallet was.

How do we know?  Also O'Connell was projected as the primary backup.  It wasn't planned that he'd be beaten out by a UDFA.

 

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

 
So we need how many Super Bowl caliber QBs do we need? How good where the backups of previous SB winners?

Do you really not consider QB depth to be important, or one that is significantly less important than second-stringers at other positions? If so, why? If not, what is your point?

 

[soxhop411]

 
By the time other positions are addressed, it’s often too late to handle the most important one.
Head coach Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots acknowledged that on Friday night, selecting Eastern Illinois quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo with the 62nd overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft.
To some, it was a great reach.
Alternatives in Iowa tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz and outside linebacker Christian Kirksey were waiting, as was USC center Marcus Martin, Oregon State defensive end Scott Crichton, and Notre Dame nose tackle Louis Nix III. Each had their merit as a top-tier available player; each had the potential to become a Patriot. But the Patriots’ draft board was assembled differently.
To them, it was a great find.
Garoppolo, a 6’2”, 226-pound 22-year-old by way of the Ohio Valley Conference, earned the starting job for final eight games of his freshman season in 2010 and didn’t relinquish it, amassing 37 more though 2013.
Along the way, he broke school records held by current Dallas Cowboy Tony Romo, tallying 13,156 career passing yards, 118 touchdowns and 51 interceptions over 45 contests.
And by the time his FCS career was over – after a 61-total touchdown, nine-interception senior year – Garoppolo was recognized as the Walter Payton Award winner and the College Football Performance FCS National Quarterback of the Year.
He helped turn a 2-9 football program into a 12-2 one.
From there, Garoppolo excelled at the East-West Shrine Game and was subsequently called up to the Senior Bowl, then the NFL Scouting Combine. Even so, there was a significant variance in his draft projection leading up to May.
He was gauged as high as an early second-round pick or as low as a third-day pick. He wasn’t Alabama’s A.J. McCarron or Georgia’s Aaron Murray, yet he was a lightly recruited prospect the Patriots felt comfortable placing near the top the board.
New England’s war room identified with his traits more than his production. New England’s war room identified with the importance of depth at the quarterback position.
With the athleticism and active footwork to negotiate the pocket, as well as the quick and compact three-quarters delivery to hit open windows downfield, it’s understandable why.
Garoppolo impresses on play-action fakes and sells the pump fake in sync with double-move routes. He has the mobility to aid deep throws on rollouts. He unveils good anticipation and zip ineffortlessly throwing his receivers open. He sees all levels, and he has the mechanics, decisiveness and touch to flick accurate passes over defenders into each one.
“He’s got a lot of qualities we admire in a quarterback,” Belichick said in his press conference after Day 2. “With the situation we have at quarterback,” he added, “I think that we felt as an organization that we needed to address that to some degree in the future, so we’ll see how all that works out but I think you’re better off being early than late at that position.”
With Tom Brady turning 37 years old in August and under contract through 2017, the situation at quarterback is far from a desperate one. It’s an ideal one.
Drafting a potential successor to Brady has long been in the discussion. It wasn’t a matter of if so much as it was when.
So when that came to fruition early on Friday night, it furthered the sentiment that the Patriots draft for the future, well beyond 2014. And with 25-year-old backup Ryan Mallett entering the final year of his deal, the future could be near.
For now, though, Garoppolo finds himself in a position to learn.
Under the helmet, he’s garnered praise for his intelligence, leadership and competitiveness. It is believed that those attributes shined through during his pre-draft visit to Foxborough.
However, as a high-volume shotgun passer from an up-tempo spread attack, he’s garnered concern when it comes to working past his first read. Although he has proven adept in diagnosing progressions post-snap, incorporating three-, five-, and seven-step drops while keeping his eyes downfield will be key for him.
He has, after all, garnered criticism for his stability under pass rush. While he has some elusiveness in his pocket presence, Garoppolo has instances of overreaction to ghost pressure. As a result, he will drop his eye level and try to scramble. And when he does get the ball out under duress, there is some inconsistency stepping into throws and driving off his back foot.
Those features, combined with a unique release point, have netted some side effects.
Before throwing an improved nine interceptions as a senior, Garoppolo had 13, 14, and 15 interceptions during his first three campaigns. He was also sacked 94 times over his four-year Panthers career.
Sensing pass rush, and taking care of the football despite it, will be invaluable for him moving forward. Nonetheless, there will inevitably be lapses as Garoppolo transitions to the next level.
That is expected. How he responds to those lapses is the independent variable.
His learning curve remains to be seen.
“I would say his level of competition is less than, certainly, he’s not playing at the level of competition in the SEC, but that’s not his fault,” said Belichick. “He’s playing against the guys out there. I think it will be an adjustment for him, he’ll see guys that are a lot bigger, a lot faster, a lot more athletic than guys he saw on the field the last couple of years. It doesn’t mean they can’t adjust to it.”
The Patriots are hoping he can adjust and develop into an efficient NFL passer, perhaps even an NFL starter.
He has time to.
Providing the Patriots retain Mallett for the duration of the 2014 season, Garoppolo would figure to be the No. 3 quarterback on the roster. That was the same capacity in which the 6’6”, 245-pound Mallett spent his rookie year after being the 74th overall pick in the 2011 draft.
Mallett took over as Brady’s lone understudy for the following two seasons, attempting four regular-season pass attempts in 2012 before manning the sidelines for all of 2013.
Much like Mallett, Garoppolo currently may not be the sum of his parts. There is no guarantee that he will ever be. But the Patriots invested in him with the confidence that he one day could be

http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2014/05/finding-the-value-in-patriots-second-round-qb-jimmy-garoppolo.html

 

[Devizier]

 
Doug Williams, Hostetler, Dilfer, Morrall, Plunkett and Brady all were backups and they all won SBs.

 
Kurt Warner.

 

[Darnell's Son]

 
Kurt Warner.

 
Yeah, Ok, but that's only like seven of the Super Bowls.

 

[Golddust Man]

How do we know?  Also O'Connell was projected as the primary backup.  It wasn't planned that he'd be beaten out by a UDFA.

 
He was projected to be 3rd on depth chart, then TB went down so he became 2nd. Then Gutierrez was re-signed. I'd claim that that clusterphuck hardly disproves my point, but you're right - O'C did play in two games so it can't be argued that he wasn't being relied on by BB. But still....

 

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

 

My point is, there are 7 roster spots that go to player who aren't active on Sunday. On any given week, most of those will probably be dictated by non-IR injuries, but there are always 2-3 redshirt slots for guys who are inactive most weeks. I don't see why you'd object to redshirting a QB as opposed to any other position.
 
Playing 'til he's 40. But playing 16 games a year 'til he's 40? I doubt it. Again, I'm happy to be wrong here. I 100% agree with you that Brady is tough as nails and will play through anything it's humanly possible to play through, but there are injuries it isn't humanly possible to play through, and they're more likely to happen to football players who are 37 than those who are 27.

 

About 1 in 6 quarterbacks who started at 36 are still starting at 39. It would be difficult to case-by-case and say whether it's injury or poor performance, but the net effect is that when you have a 37-year-old starting quarterback entering 2014, assuming that he'll be your starter through 2016 is a poor bet. Belichick now has two promising guys to evaluate in practice and training camp for the strong possibility that 2015 will require a new starting quarterback.

 

[soxfan121]

I like JG invoking Aaron Rodgers early and often in his press comments. It really is code for 'I know I'm behind the HoF for three or four years but when I get my chance, I am going to take the job. In the meantime, I'm a sponge.'

 

[Super Nomario]

   

About 1 in 6 quarterbacks who started at 36 are still starting at 39. It would be difficult to case-by-case and say whether it's injury or poor performance, but the net effect is that when you have a 37-year-old starting quarterback entering 2014, assuming that he'll be your starter through 2016 is a poor bet. Belichick now has two promising guys to evaluate in practice and training camp for the strong possibility that 2015 will require a new starting quarterback.

I hope not - Brady still has $18 MM in dead money at the start of the 2015 season. He's basically uncuttable until 2017.

 

[Golddust Man]

The Brady's have to be worth 9 figures by now; Knowing what we now know about concussions and eggplants, I wouldn't be totally shocked if he declared 'out' if given a particularly mean concussion, then and there. ~~shiver~~

 

[crystalline]

On the topic of schemes and systems rather than roster construction:

Both Mallett and Garoppolo are closer to prototypical pocket passers like Brady than they are to recently-popular mobile QBs like Russell Wilson.

It's interesting that Belichick has chosen not to adapt to this change in the NFL. From reading the scouting reports on Garoppolo it seems like he could have been cloned at birth from a mix of Brady and Manning. Belichick may emulate Kelly on snap speed but there apparently will be no read option in New England anytime soon.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

The Brady's have to be worth 9 figures by now; Knowing what we now know about concussions and eggplants, I wouldn't be totally shocked if he declared 'out' if given a particularly mean concussion, then and there. ~~shiver~~

Youve obviously never heard Brady say that wants to play into his 40's.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

Youve obviously never heard Brady say that wants to play into his 40's.

Why the eff wouldn't he say anything but that?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I'm sure there will be organizations who would bend over backward to have 41-year old Tom Brady QB their team. There is probably a greater than 50% chance that Brady finishes his career somewhere other than New England. If he's healthy bump that up to 80% or greater. It happened with Manning, Montana, Favre, Unitas and I'm sure others I can't think of off the top of my head.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

This column from Waldman is pretty damning.
 
http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2014/03/05/qb-jimmy-garoppolo-knockout/

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

This column from Waldman is pretty damning.
 
http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2014/03/05/qb-jimmy-garoppolo-knockout/

A bunch of those youtubes look like Brady reactions to pressure!

 

[HomeRunBaker]

This column from Waldman is pretty damning.
 
http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2014/03/05/qb-jimmy-garoppolo-knockout/

I'm pretty sure I could take a collection of Dan Marino's 46 interceptions during his final two seasons at Pitt and nitpick a cute little montage on his flaws.

Everyone recognizes that Garoppolo a) isn't close to being a finished product and b) has flaws in his overall game. If he didn't you wouldn't get this player in the 3rd round. Fortunately we have 3-4 years to find Brady's replacement......and JG is first up.

 

[radsoxfan]

A bunch of those youtubes look like Brady reactions to pressure!

 
Was going to post the same exact thing.  Brady has mastered the "standing fetal position" for years, so it only makes sense to bring in a potential replacement who is adept at that move as well....
 
In all seriousness though, that piece reads like a hatchet-job.  Take some youtube clips of his worst plays, and make some overarching claim about him as a player.  Hard to imagine the player he is breaking down had 53 TD, 9 INT, a 66% completion percentage, and led his team to a 12-2 record this year. I didn't find it persuasive at all. 

 

[kolbitr]

In fairness to Waldman (and ESC), he is a pretty assiduous student of film. He also predicted Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder would be superb pros, and did not think much of Kaepernick (all of which he has painfully admitted), so his methodology is hardly flawless...

 

[radsoxfan]

In fairness to Waldman (and ESC), he is a pretty assiduous student of film. He also predicted Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder would be superb pros, and did not think much of Kaepernick (all of which he has painfully admitted), so his methodology is hardly flawless...

 
I'm not familiar with Waldman, and I'd be curious at his overall success rate in these evaluations.  Certainly those are enough pretty bad recent failures to be skeptical of his process in general though. 

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

A bunch of those youtubes look like Brady reactions to pressure!

Which only happened recently and hasn't exactly been something that has helped his game. His health maybe.

I'm pretty sure I could take a collection of Dan Marino's 46 interceptions during his final two seasons at Pitt and nitpick a cute little montage on his flaws.
Everyone recognizes that Garoppolo a) isn't close to being a finished product and b) has flaws in his overall game. If he didn't you wouldn't get this player in the 3rd round. Fortunately we have 3-4 years to find Brady's replacement......and JG is first up.

The JG apologizing in this thread is amazing. And it was the 2nd round. I'm not sure who's saying what anymore. Do we need an insurance policy now or 3-4 years from now? If Brady gets hurt next year and gets Brady'd by Mallet then at least we have an unproven JG to back him up next year and for the foreseeable future? That's worth it?

In all seriousness though, that piece reads like a hatchet-job.  Take some youtube clips of his worst plays, and make some overarching claim about him as a player.  Hard to imagine the player he is breaking down had 53 TD, 9 INT, a 66% completion percentage, and led his team to a 12-2 record this year. I didn't find it persuasive at all.

He did play in the AA of College divisions... Waldman says that JG looks the part. I don't see how it can be read as a hatchet job.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

 
Again, Brady is the exception not the rule. If he goes down we're fucked regardless of our second round QB.

 

That happened in 2009 and they went 11-5 with Cassel.  No, they didn't make the playoffs, but that was a freak thing, not the fault of the Cassel.

 

[Phragle]

Well, Tom Brady was pretty good.

Others off top of my head who stepped in and led their team to the promised land.......Trent Dilfer, Doug Williams, Jeff Hostetler. I was very young but recall Bob Griese being out not sure if Don Strock led them to a championship though.

 
Tom Brady wasn't that backup, he started the SB. I'm not sure you understood the question. Maybe my fault, not important. Who was the backup on recent SB teams? 
 
2013: Tavaris Jackson
2012: Tyrod Taylor
2011: David Carr
2010: Matt Flynn
2009: Mark Brunell
2008: Byron Leftwich
2007: Jared Lorenzen
2006: Jim Sorgi
2005: Tommy Maddox
2004: Rohan Davey
2003: Rohan Davey
 
Not exactly a HoF list there. People here are blowing the value of the backup way out of proportion. I know the backup plays when the start can't. You guys can stop telling me that. I think there's some fanyboyism going on in this thread (shocking, I know). Not every decision is perfect.
 

Phragle, The point of hashing out the throwaway Colts comment is that it's the very reason I and I assume others disagree with the "too early for the successor, too high pick for Mallett's replacement" argument. If it's clear that that's not how Bill sees the post Brady team building process going then figuring out the best alternative approach appears to me the crux of the debate. Regardless, I agree there's little to be gained from further debating the merits of that particular team. No disagreement here that we'd all be happy if the transition were so simple. For the record, I'm probably as optimistic as you are in regards to the longevity of Brady's career. I just don't think that that optimism = waste of a pick. 

 
That makes sense. It is clear how BB feels. I feel he's wrong, and it's not crazy to feel that way. Being a GM is hard, really fucking hard. Unfortunately that means even the best make mistakes, and even when they're right they can get snake bit by variance. To me the Garoppolo pick is an example of a team hurting itself by being too conservative.
 

My point is, there are 7 roster spots that go to player who aren't active on Sunday. On any given week, most of those will probably be dictated by non-IR injuries, but there are always 2-3 redshirt slots for guys who are inactive most weeks. I don't see why you'd object to redshirting a QB as opposed to any other position.

 
I know that's your point. My point is that a 3rd QB is the equivalent to - on this team - a 6th or 7th DE.
 

Playing 'til he's 40. But playing 16 games a year 'til he's 40? I doubt it. Again, I'm happy to be wrong here. I 100% agree with you that Brady is tough as nails and will play through anything it's humanly possible to play through, but there are injuries it isn't humanly possible to play through, and they're more likely to happen to football players who are 37 than those who are 27.

 
I'm not so sure. Since he became a full time starter he's played 16 games every year except 2008. I think we disagree on both his injury risk, and the backup QB value. I don't even think he's more likely to be hurt now than when he was 27. When he was 27 the ball came out much much slower and therefore was easier to hit. If Brady had the same quality players surrounding him as Manning, he'd be just as hard to hit (only 17 times this year!) as well as being more durable on top of that. That's one of the things that bothers me so much about this. He's more likely to get hit/injured with Connolly and Wendell protecting him than he is with Connolly Wendell and a 2nd round pick.
 

Do you really not consider QB depth to be important, or one that is significantly less important than second-stringers at other positions? If so, why? If not, what is your point?

 
I don't consider the backup to the backup to be worth a second round pick. I don't even consider the backup worthy of a second round pick if he's sitting behind a 36 YO Brady. A third, like Mallet is defensible, but not a great use of resources. Using DE as an example, the first backup is a rotational player. In the league today, assuming health, and with a player like CJ on the team, a backup DE can easily see 500 snaps, plus postseason snaps. In the same scenario a backup QB to Brady sees none.
 
Did that answer your question?
 
 
On a macro level my point is that teams often get criticized for the players they pick or for being too aggressive, but they're rarely criticized for the players they pass or for being too conservative. Why is that? I don't think it's right. If you can criticize them for one fault you can criticize them for the same fault at the other end of the scale. Both faults hurt the team. 
 
 
 

A bunch of those youtubes look like Brady reactions to pressure!

 
You're right, but Brady has only been collapsing from pressure since Wendell began starting.

 

[radsoxfan]

He did play in the AA of College divisions... Waldman says that JG looks the part. I don't see how it can be read as a hatchet job.

 
 
It's an almost entirely negative review and he says JG wouldn't be on his draft board.  I suppose if JG really is terrible, then in the end it's a fair evaluation.  But it read like a hatchet job to me. 

 

[Super Nomario]

In fairness to Waldman (and ESC), he is a pretty assiduous student of film. He also predicted Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder would be superb pros, and did not think much of Kaepernick (all of which he has painfully admitted), so his methodology is hardly flawless...

One of the interesting things here is that he sees a lot of Gabbert and Ponder in Garoppolo. That's part of the premise of the FO article ESC linked to: Garoppolo does do a lot of things well, but Waldman sees so many red flags in this particular areas that he downgrades Garoppolo severely (he describes him as having a game that's less than the sum of its parts). Basically, three or four years ago he would have rates JG higher, but he's adjusted his process based on some of his misses and now dings Garoppolo pretty strongly.

 

[radsoxfan]

 
Tom Brady wasn't that backup, he started the SB. I'm not sure you understood the question. Maybe my fault, not important. Who was the backup on recent SB teams? 
 
2013: Tavaris Jackson
2012: Tyrod Taylor
2011: David Carr
2010: Matt Flynn
2009: Mark Brunell
2008: Byron Leftwich
2007: Jared Lorenzen
2006: Jim Sorgi
2005: Tommy Maddox
2004: Rohan Davey
2003: Rohan Davey
 
Not exactly a HoF list there. People here are blowing the value of the backup way out of proportion. I know the backup plays when the start can't. You guys can stop telling me that. I think there's some fanyboyism going on in this thread (shocking, I know). Not every decision is perfect.
 

 
 
The list of teams that made the superbowl because they had a competent or good backup, instead of a complete bum (as HRB pointed out), is more interesting.  Or the list of teams that didn't make the superbowl because they had a bad backup. Those are the groups of teams people are talking about. And as much as some want to claim, those groups of teams do exist.  
 
A list of teams that were never forced to use their backup QBs, and in retrospect, didn't need a decent one is not very useful. By selecting just the superbowl teams, you are missing all the teams that didn't make the Super Bowl (or underacheived) because they had a terrible backup. Obviously once you make the superbowl, it's not likely to matter if your backup QB sucks.  Your starter just has to stay healthy for 3 more hours. No one is saying in a 1 game scenario, it's likely critical to have a good backup QB on the roster.
 
 
I think over the course of multiple seasons, there is a real chance a good backup could make a difference if the rest of the team is Superbowl caliber.  Add in the fact that now Brady is 37, and you want to start grooming potential replacements, it makes sense to draft a QB that you like.  We're not talking about a top 10 pick.  It was #62.  I think some people upset about the pick are overrating how much value that pick is likely to produce. 

 

[kolbitr]

One of the interesting things here is that he sees a lot of Gabbert and Ponder in Garoppolo. That's part of the premise of the FO article ESC linked to: Garoppolo does do a lot of things well, but Waldman sees so many red flags in this particular areas that he downgrades Garoppolo severely (he describes him as having a game that's less than the sum of its parts). Basically, three or four years ago he would have rates JG higher, but he's adjusted his process based on some of his misses and now dings Garoppolo pretty strongly.

Excellent point--could point to the continual refinement of his technique, or a (twitchy) reaction to some painful failures...or somewhere in between...
 
NB: I am not a frequent reader of Waldman anymore, so can't speak to his technique, really...

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

That happened in 2009 and they went 11-5 with Cassel.  No, they didn't make the playoffs, but that was a freak thing, not the fault of the Cassel.

Cassel was in his fourth year with the team and had an arguably much better supporting cast to work with than what a backup would be handed now.

It's an almost entirely negative review and he says JG wouldn't be on his draft board.  I suppose if JG really is terrible, then in the end it's a fair evaluation.  But it read like a hatchet job to me.

To add to what SN said this other article by Waldman sheds some light on how his process is evolving.

http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2013/03/21/mike-glennon-blaine-gabbert-aaron-schatz-a-2011-2013-rsp-mashup/

 

[Golddust Man]

Waldman's top 20 QB's chosen 2006-11, based on their upside:
 
20. Greg McElroy
19. Matt Leinart, USC
18. Bruce Gradowski, Toledo
17.  Adam Froman, Louisville
16. Kevin Kolb, Houston
15. John Beck, BYU
14. Vince Young, Texas
13. Jake Locker, Washington
12. Christian Ponder, FSU
11. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
10. Matt Ryan, Boston College
9. Trent Edwards, Stanford
8. Jamarcus Russell, LSU
7. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
6. Cam Newton, Auburn
5. Sam Bradford, Rams
4. Mark Sanchez, USC
3. Nate Davis, Ball State
2. Matt Stafford, Georgia
1. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt
 
No Flacco, Kaep, Dalton.. lots of Sanchez. Just opinions, everyone has one.
 
Link: http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2011/11/07/the-rsp-blogs-top-qbs-2006-2011/

 

[Golddust Man]

Cassel was in his fourth year with the team and had an arguably much better supporting cast to work with than what a backup would be handed now.


To add to what SN said this other article by Waldman sheds some light on how his process is evolving.

http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2013/03/21/mike-glennon-blaine-gabbert-aaron-schatz-a-2011-2013-rsp-mashup/

 
I was wrong about Gabbert for two major reasons:

• I didn’t factor his pocket issues with enough weight because I saw examples contrary to the popular opinion about is jitters – especially as a sophomore. 

 
Possibly now overcompensating for the miss