RD3 #37/#101: TE Dalton Keene, Virginia Tech

[BaseballJones]

The frustrating part is that the 2020 draft was a critical one for the team, given the disaster that was the 2019 draft and the overall meh-ness of the prior drafts. So it's understandable for fans to have wanted more out of the middle rounds. The good news is that it seems as if both Uche and Jennings are having good camps, and they did uncover a decent starting OL in the 6th, and Dugger is a definite player. But the jury will still be out for this draft class for another year.

Like many 3rd round picks, looking back at the comments, it definitely seems as if Keene had some interesting traits, but also some concerns when it came to how those skills would translate to the NFL-level. One of those situations where Bill probably made the right call, but it just didn't work out.

I'm as big a BB defender as there is here, but of course it's entirely possible that he made the WRONG call on Keene. He makes plenty of mistakes, but my point is that this is a terribly inexact science, and every study that's ever been done (including my own research) tells us that everyone makes TONS of mistakes, or has picks that just don't pan out for whatever reason (injuries, etc.).

But if it turns out that Jennings and Uche both are legit players, and Asiasi emerges (which it appears he has a chance to, as he's also had a terrific camp), and Onwenu continues his track to being a legit starting OL in the league, then the 2020 draft (which also features a stud in Dugger) ends up featuring 5 quality NFL players. If all that happens, then it's a wildly successful draft, actually. The only pick in that draft that was the total WTF pick was Rohrwasser at kicker. Of course I had never heard of Dugger or Lenoir-Rhyne before so when that pick was made it was a WTF moment, but it didn't take long for me to think, ohhhhh okay, that's why BB drafted him. But the Rohrwasser pick was truly baffling, and in my mind, the absolute worst pick BB has ever had. To spend a draft pick on a kicker is itself head-scratching. To spend a 5th was mind blowing. To spend a 5th on a guy who wasn't even among the top rated kickers was utterly incomprehensible. And to have him fail and not make the team...I mean, what a total waste, and that was not second guessing. That was all a true WTF is BB doing moment right from the word go.

But even with that pick, it looks like that draft could end up being pretty solid.

And of course, the 2021 draft was superlative: every single one of those picks except for Sherman look like they could be contributors at least, and some of them very very high level picks (Mac, Barmore, Stevenson).

And 2022...jury is obviously still out, but it's looking pretty good so far.

THAT is how you rebuild an organization.

 

[Bowhemian]

I'm bummed about this one, I had high hopes for the guy.

 

[Cellar-Door]

If I have a complaint about the Keene pick, it's the same one I had when it was made... I didn't like the value of giving up 2 shots in the 4th and one in the 6th for a shot in the late 3rd given the bust rate on these picks.

 

[Super Nomario]

If I have a complaint about the Keene pick, it's the same one I had when it was made... I didn't like the value of giving up 2 shots in the 4th and one in the 6th for a shot in the late 3rd given the bust rate on these picks.

This matters in a vacuum, but in context, the Pats made 10 picks anyway and 3/5 of the day three picks wound up not making the roster. I think they saw those fourth-round dart throws as having pretty limited utility, having made so many picks in the first three rounds and also having a bunch of later day three picks.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

Asiasi very well may not make the team. While he had a couple nice grabs the other night, odds are decent he gets cut and “tight end-ish” Li’l Jordan takes his spot as a WR/MOVE TE.

 

[j44thor]

This is your regular reminder that drafting in the NFL is incredibly hard to do well. And in fact, the vast vast majority of picks have essentially no impact in the league.

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

Obviously not a perfect study (what is?) but gives you a rough idea.

Honestly that is a dumb study that tells us virtually nothing. The first part is OK but highly subjective but the second part that only focuses on if a player gets a second contract with the drafting team makes my head hurt. If you get 3-4 productive years out of a day 3 draft pick what happens after that should be largely irrelevant, many times you might end up trading them for future picks or perhaps they get franchised (unclear how that is factored in) or in the case of a lot of talented players they simply sign a larger FA contract with another team and your team potentially recoups another draft pick. Simply focusing on if the player gets a second contract with the drafting team is just so flawed I'm not even sure it should be considered a worthy proxy for the discussion of draft success.

 

[BaseballJones]

There’s plenty of criticisms you can have about their approach. But every study I’ve ever seen done, no matter the methodology, basically ends up with the same conclusion - that drafting great or even really good players is incredibly hard to do and most draft picks turn out to have no or very little impact in the league. So this study at least seems to arrive at similar conclusions to everything else I’ve ever seen on this topic.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Tight end is such a crap shoot. The last time I checked it was the non-QB position with the highest whiff rate. Keene was a lotto-ticket. High end physical skills but raw as a route runner and in-line blocker. You can't make the club from the tub as the old saying goes and he was injured all too often. Shame he didn't work out.

I can't get myself too worked up about two picks in the 90's and 100's that didn't work out especially at tight end. Low probability shots anyway.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Tight end is such a crap shoot.

That's why God invented Ex-Lax

 

[PedrosRedGlove]

There’s plenty of criticisms you can have about their approach. But every study I’ve ever seen done, no matter the methodology, basically ends up with the same conclusion - that drafting great or even really good players is incredibly hard to do and most draft picks turn out to have no or very little impact in the league. So this study at least seems to arrive at similar conclusions to everything else I’ve ever seen on this topic.

Yes but that's a pretty obvious conclusion if you've ever done any draft analysis.

The approach of the 2nd half is almost bizarre and based on an entirely false premise:

For example, among first-round draft picks selected between 2010-2017, only 31% signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.

Now that doesn’t mean that 69% of first-round draft picks during that period were total busts, but in most cases it meant the team didn’t value them enough to extend them. Comparing them to the previous study, these would be players in the average or worse categories, but some in the ‘good’ category as well.

A drafting team not signing a player to a second contract can be for a number of reasons, often that team's cheapness, it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the value of the player. That part of the information just shows that players are about twice as likely to leave their draft team for a 2nd contract rather than stay, regardless of round. Just showing the percentage of players who get a 2nd contract, period, would be a much simpler and more representative way to show how hard it is to draft.

 

[slamminsammya]

I think a slightly better proxy for player value at the time of the 2nd contract would be position adjusted percentage of cap in the following year. It is still pretty rough but I think less arbitrary than whether or not the player stuck with the team that drafted them.

 

[Devizier]

I think a slightly better proxy for player value at the time of the 2nd contract would be position adjusted percentage of cap in the following year. It is still pretty rough but I think less arbitrary than whether or not the player stuck with the team that drafted them.

Yeah, the “do they sign him” is probably a decent proxy though, since most NFL draftees don’t make it to their second contract, period.