RealFantasy Draft Order - DETERMINED BY NEXT WED POWERBALL

soxfan121 · Apr 17, 2014

A big THANK YOU to MMS for putting in the time and effort to keep this train rolling.
:bravo:

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Apr 17, 2014

soxfan121 said:
A big THANK YOU to MMS for putting in the time and effort to keep this train rolling.
:bravo:

Seconded. Great work MMS.

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Apr 17, 2014

Yup. I'll say it again, the Powerball thing is a great idea. Thanks MMS.

RhaegarTharen · Apr 18, 2014

soxfan121 said:
A big THANK YOU to MMS for putting in the time and effort to keep this train rolling.
:bravo:

Thirded

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Apr 18, 2014

sleepyjose03 said:
Thirded

Shouldn't that be fourthed?

SMU_Sox · Apr 18, 2014

MMS, you have my gratitude. Fantastic job. Have a great weekend, fellow gms and co-gms.

bakahump · Apr 22, 2014

Chiefs (9-21)

I like those odds.

Freudian Slip, knowing that the Chiefs are the worst?

I assume we are 15-21.

bakahump · Apr 24, 2014

ALMOST Worse case Scenario for the Chiefs.

Worst team.....7th pick....

SMU_Sox · Apr 24, 2014

So, KFP, which QB are we going to reach for with pick 26? :unsure:

While I get the rationale for this picking behind teams seeded higher than us because we got (un)lucky with a powerball drawing in the playoffs this kind of sucks. We were the 6th seed and yet we pick 26th?

I see why we did it this way but I don't think it's necessarily fair. My proposal would have been to do the final 12 teams in order of where they were seeded pre-playoffs.

soxfan121 · Apr 24, 2014

Congrats SSF! You won the season, as far as I'm concerned. You had a team that barely lost a coin flip for "last" and parlayed it into Clowney or a trade bounty.

Old Fart Tree · Apr 24, 2014

Sources in Point Reyes Station report that the Raiders are looking to move aggressively up OR down the draft board...

Scoops Bolling · Apr 24, 2014

Are we going to allow picks to be traded? I get, and support, barring player trades, but pick trades could be fascinating given how the draft order ended up.

ElcaballitoMVP · Apr 24, 2014

Ouch. We went from 9th worst in our rankings to 20th in the draft. Apparently the Ponder-led Dolphins are a borderline playoff team.

Edit: How the hell are we drafting after teams led by Wilson, Brees, Rogers, Kaepernick and Ryan? I know this system was trying to be unbiased, but come on. Christian Ponder was our QB.

DanoooME · Apr 24, 2014

Hmm, looks like my choice of QBs. Who do I want????

Old Fart Tree · Apr 24, 2014

To reiterate, the Raiders will be trading picks.

SMU_Sox · Apr 24, 2014

ElcaballitoMVP said:
Ouch. We went from 9th worst in our rankings to 20th in the draft. Apparently the Ponder-led Dolphins are a borderline playoff team.

Edit: How the hell are we drafting after teams led by Wilson, Brees, Rogers, Kaepernick and Ryan? I know this system was trying to be unbiased, but come on. Christian Ponder was our QB.

Same boat here. Ryan Fitzpatrick was our QB and we're drafting 26th. Eh... doesn't seem right. Same for you.

soxfan121 · Apr 24, 2014

SMU_Sox said:
Same boat here. Ryan Fitzpatrick was our QB and we're drafting 26th. Eh... doesn't seem right. Same for you.

I got you something that pairs well with this post...

SMU_Sox · Apr 24, 2014

You clearly are not a gourmet. 121, you need to think about the types of cheeses and wines more before posting again. Your level of snob is a 3 or 4. You're dealing with an 11

.

soxfan121 · Apr 24, 2014

SMU_Sox said:
You clearly are not a gourmet. 121, you need to think about the types of cheeses and wines more before posting again. Your level of snob is a 3 or 4. You're dealing with an 11 .

Says the guy who picked Tyler Wilson, Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Fitzpatrick - the PuPu Platter of QB Crapitude.

And the picture of the right cheeses was 2048x5048, which would have screwed up the page size. You'll take the small picture of bad cheeses and like it, buddy.

Phragle · Apr 24, 2014

SMU_Sox said:
So, KFP, which QB are we going to reach for with pick 26?

While I get the rationale for this picking behind teams seeded higher than us because we got (un)lucky with a powerball drawing in the playoffs this kind of sucks. We were the 6th seed and yet we pick 26th?

I see why we did it this way but I don't think it's necessarily fair. My proposal would have been to do the final 12 teams in order of where they were seeded pre-playoffs.

ElcaballitoMVP said:
Ouch. We went from 9th worst in our rankings to 20th in the draft. Apparently the Ponder-led Dolphins are a borderline playoff team.

Edit: How the hell are we drafting after teams led by Wilson, Brees, Rogers, Kaepernick and Ryan? I know this system was trying to be unbiased, but come on. Christian Ponder was our QB.

Can you guys shut up? We all knew going in the process wasn't perfect, but it's fair. We all had the same odds. Do you guys shit yourselves when you're dealt a bad hand in blackjack?

SMU_Sox said:
Same boat here. Ryan Fitzpatrick was our QB and we're drafting 26th. Eh... doesn't seem right. Same for you.

Dude you were in the playoffs. The divisional round at that. The most right thing about this process is the order of the playoff teams.

soxfan121 · Apr 24, 2014

phragle said:
Can you guys shut up? We all knew going in the process wasn't perfect, but it's fair. We all had the same odds. Do you guys shit yourselves when you're dealt a bad hand in blackjack?

Dude you were in the playoffs. The divisional round at that. The most right thing about this process is the order of the playoff teams.

Yeah, Tanker McTanktank is right. If at first, you don't succeed, quit and try to improve your draft stock for next year.

Phragle · Apr 24, 2014

A week ago "Oh wow great job MMS. This is perfect. Love the powerball idea."

Today "WHTF DUDE POWERBALLZ SCREWWD MEEEEEZ!!!!!@!"

SMU_Sox · Apr 24, 2014

The powerball idea was a great idea for determining who wins and loses the playoffs, Phragle. That's a different concept. You're creating a false dichotomy.

Look, the way I see it I can buy us being a top 20 team. Ok, great. I could also buy us being a bottom 12 team. When you have as big of a ? as we did with QB I can see us falling pretty much anywhere. But picking after 121's squad when he was a division leader, got to pick (I forgot but top 5 tight?) high last year - it just strikes me as... well... off. I think using powerball for the playoffs was a good idea because it incorporated randomness into the process which is similar to what actually happens. And while it might be fair on some levels that we have some bad luck and pick 26th this year it doesn't strike me as completely fair. And maybe that's the point. That this isn't a perfect process and there is some unfairness built in. I just happened to get the short end of the stick. Fine. But that doesn't mean I can't offer what I think is a more fair suggestion. I think it would be more fair if the 6th seed picks 21-22 and not 26th. I'm not just complaining here I am offering what I think is a better solution.

soxfan121 · Apr 24, 2014

Oh, I get it.

SMU_Sox · Apr 24, 2014

Regarding blackjack and that type of analogy - you're missing the point. In blackjack we start with a fresh hand every time and you're typically looking at small sunk costs. This is a different game, different rules, different costs, really pretty much everything different that you can imagine. There is nothing unfair about getting dealt a shitty hand - that's part of the game. But the next time you play you have an entirely new hand and fresh odds.

SMU_Sox · Apr 24, 2014

Look, if you want to post crying baby pictures or whatever just save me the time and effort. I get it - you think I'm being a whiny bitch. Fine. If that's all you want to add, thanks - that really helps. Now if you want to actually have a conversation about this without resorting to that kind of shit, I'm game. If not - at least refresh the schtick.

Phragle · Apr 24, 2014

SMU_Sox said:
The powerball idea was a great idea for determining who wins and loses the playoffs, Phragle. That's a different concept. You're creating a false dichotomy.

Look, the way I see it I can buy us being a top 20 team. Ok, great. I could also buy us being a bottom 12 team. When you have as big of a ? as we did with QB I can see us falling pretty much anywhere. But picking after 121's squad when he was a division leader, got to pick (I forgot but top 5 tight?) high last year - it just strikes me as... well... off. I think using powerball for the playoffs was a good idea because it incorporated randomness into the process which is similar to what actually happens. And while it might be fair on some levels that we have some bad luck and pick 26th this year it doesn't strike me as completely fair. And maybe that's the point. That this isn't a perfect process and there is some unfairness built in. I just happened to get the short end of the stick. Fine. But that doesn't mean I can't offer what I think is a more fair suggestion. I think it would be more fair if the 6th seed picks 21-22 and not 26th. I'm not just complaining here I am offering what I think is a better solution.

It's not a different concept. This whole thread is about the draft order. You and like four others praised him on this process at the top of the thread. If you wanted a high pick you shouldn't have built one of the best teams in the league. That's the way this works. Bad team pick high, good teams pick low.

soxfan121 said:
Oh, I get it.

Haha, exaclty. Ledoux was right. Time is a flat circle. Win the ship, get a top pick, and eat the cake. That's the life of the fucking Browns, man.

Now that I think of it. WTF is the NFL and Goddell doing? Why don't the RL Patriots have a top five pick. That fuckin racist.

SMU_Sox · Apr 24, 2014

Very interesting concept that time is a flat circle - I've never read Ledoux. I don't see how it relates to this though. I guess you're right on eating the cake. I suppose we have only fate to thank for that low powerball #, right?

Perhaps I just wanted to lament that we have a shitty QB and a shitty draft pick. Maybe I'm just a chick. Once I vent I feel better /sexistmomentover

How's this for honest? I am dealing with severely bad hemorrhoids right now and I'm very irritable. My numbing agent has worn off, I can't take anymore Tylenol, and RFP is QB'ing my team. I'm not sure if the hemorrhoid pain is worse or RFP.

Old Fart Tree · Apr 24, 2014

If we really want to complain, I have a hard time believing that a flawed team in a run-and-gun offense led by Tim Tebow for the half the season would not be in the bottom 10 of the NFL. But that's okay; everyone's always been out to screw old Al. And someday soon, those chickens are coming home to roost, baby.

ElcaballitoMVP · Apr 24, 2014

I'm not saying I want to change the system, it is what it is, but you can't look at how it shook out and say it makes a whole lot of sense.

I mean, 5 teams who picked in the top 10 last year are picking ahead of us. Picking in the top 10 was such a huge advantage last year these teams should be embarrassed to be picking so high again. Outside of a team losing their QB for an extended stretch, each of those teams should be fighting for the playoffs being led by these QBs, not making top 10 draft picks.

soxfan121 · Apr 24, 2014

SMU_Sox said:
Look, if you want to post crying baby pictures or whatever just save me the time and effort. I get it - you think I'm being a whiny bitch. Fine. If that's all you want to add, thanks - that really helps. Now if you want to actually have a conversation about this without resorting to that kind of shit, I'm game. If not - at least refresh the schtick.

Hey, that's a baby who wanted cake AND TO EAT IT TOO.

I have no interest in serious discussions about this with you - frankly, you squandered that when you decided to change your "we won the division" song to the "we probably weren't good" song AFTER I specifically pointed out you should have been pointing out you weren't good from the get-go.

This is the system. You drafted an excellent defense and won a playoff game. You deserve to be drafting in the mid-20s. You've noted, for the record, that you don't agree with the system. Fine. It's been noted. Continuing to bring it up will only get you more cakes, babies, wine & cheese.

Super Nomario · Apr 24, 2014

Is this going to be a snake draft or a straight draft?

soxfan121 · Apr 24, 2014

ElcaballitoMVP said:
I'm not saying I want to change the system, it is what it is, but you can't look at how it shook out and say it makes a whole lot of sense.

I mean, 5 teams who picked in the top 10 last year are picking ahead of us. Picking in the top 10 was such a huge advantage last year these teams should be embarrassed to be picking so high again. Outside of a team losing their QB for an extended stretch, each of those teams should be fighting for the playoffs being led by these QBs, not making top 10 draft picks.

That's a good point. We definitely need to be giving those guys much more crap than they are getting.

And, FTR, I'm somewhat sympathetic to you and DanooooMe, etc who got shitty draft slots last year and then lost the powerball to SSF, who didn't need it and probably didn't deserve it (again - he has a pretty good team that lost a coin flip).

It'll make more sense next year. And frankly, since this is going to go on long enough, I'll eventually get to the "boned" stage when Brady hangs 'em up. So will Turrable's Jags. Then I will be the one crying about my draft pick and how I can't use a time machine or cloning technology or whathaveyou.

SMU_Sox · Apr 24, 2014

So wait. I came in thinking my team was good, saw analysis to the contrary, changed my mind and somehow that's bad? Why is it such a big deal to change one's mind here? Are you just looking for an "aha gotcha" moment? I have a right to change my mind if the facts are presented in a way that I agree with more. Having someone change their mind after a discussion is a good thing, 121. If I clung to my first theory what would that show you? That I'm stubborn? That I don't listen to anyone's opinion but my own? Come on man.

And for the record I've waffled on a few issues lately: Tuitt vs. Hageman, AJ McCarron (liked him in 2012 and halfway through 2013 now don't). Our opinions evolve as we learn things. I've been a flaming liberal, a libertarian, and now am a disinterested moderate. It's my life.

A lot of the Tuitt vs. Hageman was based on Phragle's analysis too. I guess if you want to ding me for something it is being too persuadable? I was firmly in camp Hageman and now I'm on the Tuitt side of the fence.

Phragle · Apr 24, 2014

SMU_Sox said:
Very interesting concept that time is a flat circle - I've never read Ledoux.

Then you're missing out on a good TV show

soxfan121 said:
It'll make more sense next year. And frankly, since this is going to go on long enough, I'll eventually get to the "boned" stage when Brady hangs 'em up. So will Turrable's Jags. Then I will be the one crying about my draft pick and how I can't use a time machine or cloning technology or whathaveyou.

Yeah and then SMU can post pics of your baby eatin cake

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Apr 24, 2014

Super Nomario said:
Is this going to be a snake draft or a straight draft?

I thought it was going to be a straight draft.

soxfan121 · Apr 24, 2014

SMU_Sox said:
So wait. I came in thinking my team was good, saw analysis to the contrary, changed my mind and somehow that's bad? Why is it such a big deal to change one's mind here? Are you just looking for an "aha gotcha" moment? I have a right to change my mind if the facts are presented in a way that I agree with more. Having someone change their mind after a discussion is a good thing, 121. If I clung to my first theory what would that show you? That I'm stubborn? That I don't listen to anyone's opinion but my own? Come on man.

No. It might be my failure of perception but y'all spent a lot of time arguing with me about why you were good and then when it became apparent you weren't winning (the vote), you executed a reversal. *I* thought y'all weren't good enough to make the playoffs but you did and then you won on the Powerball over me. So yeah, I'm a bit chapped that you've continued to use my good fortune with last year's draft lottery as your whipping post when making this argument over and over and over.

But mostly, it's that last thing. You've had your say. Everyone engaged in this thing knows where you stand and how you don't think this is fair to you. Just like everyone is aware that Eck's Smokescreen also has issues with the process.

My suggestion would be to work up some detailed proposals for how things should work, so we can vote on them after the draft. No one involved has said this is the way it will be for all time. It is the way it is until after this season's draft. So, how do you think we should fix it for next year?

BTW, Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably be available at 26. Tyler Wilson and Gabbert, too. And the new kids. By my count, there's a ton of teams who aren't in the first round QB market.

Kenny F'ing Powers · Apr 24, 2014

phragle said:
Can you guys shut up? We all knew going in the process wasn't perfect, but it's fair. We all had the same odds. Do you guys shit yourselves when you're dealt a bad hand in blackjack?

Dude you were in the playoffs. The divisional round at that. The most right thing about this process is the order of the playoff teams.

This is about the 50th time in the past few months youve said "you guys" when John posts.

How about not lumping us together like siamese twins and you shut the fuck up?

Ive accepted the flaws of this thing long ago. There was never a focus on parody early on (flip draft order first two years) and teams that drafted well despite it suffer. When we brought it up, the people with good QBs were much better squeeky wheels.

Oh well. Its a fake football league thay nobody gives 2 shits about. Im super happy for the message board fake league winner, and I look forward to losing in the playoffs with Sanchez at the helm next year.

So, fuck off.

soxfan121 · Apr 24, 2014

Kenny F'ing Powers said:
This is about the 50th time in the past few months youve said "you guys" when John posts.

How about not lumping us together like siamese twins and you shut the fuck up?

Ive accepted the flaws of this thing long ago. There was never a focus on parody early on (flip draft order first two years) and teams that drafted well despite it suffer. When we brought it up, the people with good QBs were much better squeeky wheels.

Oh well. Its a fake football league thay nobody gives 2 shits about. Im super happy for the message board fake league winner, and I look forward to losing in the playoffs with Sanchez at the helm next year.

So, fuck off.

Sorry Garfunkel, but when Simon speaks, you get caught in the crossfire. Hello darkness my old friend.

SMU_Sox · Apr 24, 2014

I'm the whiny minority owner. KFP is the hammer. I think he gave up trying to argue some time ago. I think the you guys was a reference to me and Elcab, not you and me, KFP. Could be wrong.

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Apr 24, 2014

wibi · Apr 24, 2014

Kenny F'ing Powers said:
There was never a focus on parody early on (flip draft order first two years) and teams that drafted well despite it suffer.

I will admit I've seen some great humor in this thread but havent caught the parody yet

Kenny F'ing Powers · Apr 24, 2014

wibi said:
I will admit I've seen some great humor in this thread but havent caught the parody yet

Drunken phone messages are awesome.

I'll leave it up and own it, 'cause I'm a man.

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Apr 24, 2014

I don't feel bad for any of the playoff teams. Every one of them put together a good team and I think they should all be applauded. The ones with the short end of the stick should be getting even more credit.

SMU_Sox said:
How's this for honest? I am dealing with severely bad hemorrhoids right now and I'm very irritable. My numbing agent has worn off, I can't take anymore Tylenol, and RFP is QB'ing my team. I'm not sure if the hemorrhoid pain is worse or RFP.

Well this I do feel bad for.

bsj · Apr 24, 2014

I vote for snake draft.

I kid.

bakahump · Apr 25, 2014

Look we have discovered a flaw. (and it is)

We now have a year to figure out a better way to do it next year. (we have the time and we should)

Luckily my 876 Million dollar investment will probably only increase in value.

We can start a new thread about how to fix the draft. I think the big flaw WAS the randomness of the PB numbers.

The Draft shouldnt be random. It should be fixed. The worst teams gets the the best picks.

Random begets the NBA lottery. Which we can all agree sucks.

Lock'er up.

RhaegarTharen · Apr 25, 2014

The level of whining over this whole exercise is incredible. We've got people whining over almost every step of the process. People whining about the whiners. People whining about somebody whining about one thing while benefiting from something other people whined about. People whining about people whining about people......

The draft absolutely IS random. It's fixed based on record, which itself is composed of a set of (weighted) random occurrences. Any given Sunday and all that. There's a reason that the best teams on paper don't finish with undefeated records. In short - that's why you play the games.

Since we didn't go through the whole process of simulating the schedule game by game, we shortcutted the process by randomly picking the draft order - which is essentially randomly assigning the final W/L record instead of doing each game individually. Unless somebody wants to put in the time and effort to hold polls for each of the 500+ regular season games so we can appropriately handicap and figure out each teams record; OR setup a full-fledged Madden simulation (each of which have their own flaws which I severely doubt would eliminate all the whining). Otherwise how about we all stop bitching and work on how to constructively make this process as effective as realistically possible?

As for the draft ordering, I agree that it might have made more sense to either a) handicap each team within each strata and randomize the order accordingly, sort of like the NBA lotto or b) hold polls to determine which teams were worse and would have had lower records and simply order accordingly. However, neither approach is perfect (again - the IRL actual order depends on the cumulative results from a series of randomized events) but, given how long it's taken us to do each step of the process, I don't fault MMS for taking the shortcuts he did. Sure, we can pick out a few outliers (like ElCab's Fins or SSF's Steelers) who's draft position doesn't make much sense; but by and large I think we did a pretty good job getting to where we are.

RealFantasy Draft Order - DETERMINED BY NEXT WED POWERBALL

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