RealFantasy NFC South Discussion and Breakdown

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Have at it.
 
[tablegrid= Overall PFF Scores ] Bucs Falcons Saints Panthers Offense 60.8 65.4 66.9 -14.5 Defense 87.6 94.3 18.5 20 Total 148.4 159.7 85.4 5.5 [/tablegrid]
 
 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

[tablegrid= Offense ] Bucs Snaps Grade Falcons Snaps Grade Saints Snaps Grade Panthers Snaps Grade QB Sam Bradford 463 0.5 Andrew Luck 1068 11.1 Alex Smith 1006 -0.6 Brandon Weeden 473 -6.8 QB Ryan Mallett DNP   BJ Daniels DNP   Tyler Bray DNP           RB Maurice Jones-Drew 664 3.9 Vick Ballard 41 0.6 Daryl Richardson 205 -2.4 Reggie Bush 625 2.7 RB Isaiah Pead 100 0.5 Kendall Hunter 202 0.4 Andre Brown 369 -4.6 Mike Tolbert 645 11.4 TE Brent Celek 864 9.2 Terrelle Pryor 611 -17 Darrel Young 231 1.9 Jake Ballard 170 -3.4 TE Anthony Fasano 522 -2.3 Jermaine Gresham 987 -16.3 Jason Witten 1012 11.9 Aaron Hernandez DNP   WR Dez Bryant 959 11 Demaryius Thomas 1327 25.9 Steve Jonhson 713 3 Randall Cobb 385 8.4 WR Michael Floyd 951 12.1 Josh Gordon 934 15.1 Greg Little 975 -17.9 Cecil Shorts 778 3.2 WR Jordan Reed 383 10.3 Doug Baldwin 916 16.9 Reuben Randle 589 2.4 Joe Morgan DNP   SP Jarius Wright 424 4.7 Cierre Wood 3 -0.1 Ace Sanders 616 -2.5 Michael Egnew 230 -4.1 SP             Julius Thomas 1126 -2.7 Michael Cox 38 -1.2 SP                   Bennie Cunningham 143 -4.7   LT Eric Fisher 811 -17.8 Sebastian Vollmer 516 14.5 Joe Staley 958 27.7 Jonathan Martin 458 -6.9 LG Justin Pugh 1042 7.1 Kevin Boothe 1037 -11.3 Evan Mathis 1128 46.7 Chance Warmack 1088 -5.6 C Jason Kelce 1119 18.9 Jonathan Goodwin 1001 5.8 Will Montgomery 1172 4.8 Trevor Robinson 78 -3.6 RG Chris Chester 1172 -5.5 Geoff Hangartner 39 -1.4 Tyronne Green DNP   Jonathan Cooper DNP   RT Mitchell Schwartz 1150 8.2 Orlando Franklin 1340 22.1 Tyson Clabo 962 -0.8 Chris Faulk DNP   OL       Mike Person 3 -0.9       Breno Giacomini 738 -2.5 OL                   Daryn Colledge 1050 -1.4   QBs   463 0.5   1068 11.1   1006 -0.6   473 -6.8 Skill Pos   4867 49.4   5021 25.5   5836 -10.9   3014 12.3 OL   5294 10.9   3936 28.8   4220 78.4   3412 -20 Offense   10624 60.8   10025 65.4   11062 66.9   6899 -14.5 [/tablegrid]

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

[tablegrid= Defense ] Bucs Snaps Grade Falcons Snaps Grade Saints Snaps Grade Panthers Snaps Grade DE Kendall Reyes 728 -15 Robert Quinn 849 77.2 Damontre Moore 136 -1.9 Brandon Graham 353 8.7 DE Justin Smith 932 17.1 Wallace Gilberry 548 -5.5 Israel Idonije 347 -4 Courtney Upshaw 650 -9.1 DT Kenrick Ellis 210 14.9 Pernell McPhee 313 3.9 Ndamukong Suh 913 39.9 John Jenkins 481 0 DT Steve McClendon 355 5.1 Arthur Jones 529 15.7 Vince Wilfork 177 -2.6 Stephen Paea 480 -2.5 ILB Khaseem Greene 236 -9.6 Mason Foster 789 -8.4 Dan Connor 22 1.3 Bobby Wagner 1082 -0.4 ILB Demario Davis 1077 -14.5 Mark Herzlich 194 -6.8 Keith Rivers 429 0.4 Akeem Spence 712 -19.9 OLB Von Miller 552 40.3 Jerod Mayo 407 -5.7 Barkevious Mingo 668 -9.8 Nigel Bradham 288 9.1 OLB Ryan Kerrigan 988 1 Zaviar Gooden 76 -3.2 Nick Perry 433 -2.3 Stephen Nicholas 132 3.3 F7 Vinny Curry 337 11.9 Ricky Jean Francois 510 4.5 Kavell Connor 147 3.3       F7 Jerry Hughes 621 19.7                     CB Cortez Allen 718 3.7 Sean Smith 1102 1.3 Jason McCourty 1078 10.2 Richard Sherman 1194 16.5 CB Keenan Lewis 1002 7.3 Aaron Williams 955 2.5 Josh Wilson 982 -4.2 Prince Amukamara 1108 4 CB Darius Slay 353 -7 Marcus Gilchrist 1011 3.3 Bradley Fletcher 1023 3.6 Trumaine Johnson 892 -3 S Eric Weddle 1017 11.3 Michael Griffin 915 6 Michael Huff 170 -4.3 Will Hil 787 15.7 S Troy Polamalu 1093 12.2 Shamarko Thomas 193 -0.5 Bacarri Rambo 340 -11.5 Da'Norris Searcy 754 -2.4 DB Duke Ihenacho 938 -10.8 Byron Maxwell 694 10 Terrell Thomas 588 0.4         K Kai Forbath   3.6 Steven Hauschka   41.7 Matt Bryant   6.8 Mike Nugent   22.4 P Shane Lechler   40.9 Britton Colquitt   17.3 Dave Zastudil   9.9 Zoltan Mesko   -4.3   Front7   6036 70.9   4215 71.7   3272 24.3   4178 -10.8 DBs   5121 16.7   4870 22.6   4181 -5.8   4735 30.8 Defense   11157 87.6   9085 94.3   7453 18.5   8913 20 Special     44.5     59     16.7     18.1 [/tablegrid]

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Some quick thoughts given limited time right now:
 
My overall assessment of the Bucs is that we're a pretty competitive team with a nice foundation but that injuries really set us back last year.  "What do you think of Ryan Mallett?"  is really the core question for this team in 2013.  I don't know whether Bradford is truly the guy long term but I think he could have carried this team to a division title and some damage in the playoff if he hadn't gotten hurt mid-season.  Mallett?  To be perfectly honest, I really have no clue.
 
The good news is that I think I have a very good foundation otherwise on offense and pretty nasty defense.  The offense is being built around a young OL centered on Kelce, Schwartz, Pugh, and (if he lives up to his potential) Fisher.  We also have some great young weapons in the passing game in Dez, Floyd (who had a big breakout year), and Reed (who was looking to have a big rookie year until getting hurt) as well as a veteran TE in Celek who quietly had a very nice season under Chip Kelly.  RB is definitely a concern and of course there are lingering questions about Bradford being the guy in the long run (although his half season was probably his best football yet and I think there are reasons to believe that he'll improve with more pieces around him in StL).
 
On defense we'll have a dominating pass rush (Von Miller most notably but also huge depth in that we can cycle through guys like Kerrigan, Curry, and Hughes), some big time runstoppers up front (J. Smith, McClendon, Ellis), and a great backfield featuring two physical man corners and arguably the best safety combination in the league.  This defense was drafted to be a 3-4 unit but I think there might be an argument for playing more of a 4-3 under scheme next year a la the Seahawks.  We've got the depth and talent up front to pull that off, although I may need to look at some different LBs in the draft.
 
As far as other teams, Ill just note that the Falcons are really stacked - one of the best teams that I've seen so far - and that the Panthers were lucky enough to draft both Weedz and Jonathan Martin.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I'd rank them Falcons, Bucs, Saints, Panthers.

The Falcons with Luck, Thomas and Gordon is a long-term nightmare for opposing defenses. They need some help in the running game, at TE and to fill a couple of holes on the OL, but that team is going to put up some points. And defensively, they're pretty solid across the board. 

The Bucs come in a close second for me. It's tough for me to buy into the QB situation, which is holding them back, because the rest of the team is very good. They've got a better running game and balance of skill players than the Falcons do, IMO. On defense, the focus is on Von Miller, for good reason, but the rest of the front 7 is solid and compliments one another well. The secondary is pretty good too. Definitely in contention for a wild card spot. 
 
The Saints just didn't have enough to keep up with the Falcons and Bucs. They're lacking a bit in the skill players, have a couple of holes on the OL and were hurt defensively with Vince's injury and a tough safety situation. Definitely a team that could contend next year, as they've got some young guys who should grow into solid contributors (Mingo, Moore, J. Thomas). 

The Panthers had Weeden, Weedz and Martin. That's a pretty big hole to dig out of. But at least they've got a good secondary! 

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

This is a really tough one. It's obviously down to the Bucs and Falcons though. That Falcons offense with Luck throwing to Thomas, Gordon and Baldwin would be pretty hard to stop. Neither team has much of a run game so it would likely be a shootout. I love the Bucs defense though. I think Eat-a-nacho was underrated by PFF and Polamalu was overrated. Either way that's a pretty sweet secondary. The games between the two of them would definitely come down to how often the Bucs can keep the Falcons off the board. In games that close you have to look at the kickers and Hauschka is money. I think Mallet could have subbed in pretty well but I'm not sure he can out play Luck. The Bucs would get pressure on Andrew but his mobility is pretty damn good. Final say, I have to give it to the Falcons but the Bucs are an obvious WC team.

 

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

I'd rank them Falcons, Bucs, Saints, Panthers.
The Falcons with Luck, Thomas and Gordon is a long-term nightmare for opposing defenses. They need some help in the running game, at TE and to fill a couple of holes on the OL, but that team is going to put up some points. And defensively, they're pretty solid across the board. 
The Bucs come in a close second for me. It's tough for me to buy into the QB situation, which is holding them back, because the rest of the team is very good. They've got a better running game and balance of skill players than the Falcons do, IMO. On defense, the focus is on Von Miller, for good reason, but the rest of the front 7 is solid and compliments one another well. The secondary is pretty good too. Definitely in contention for a wild card spot. 
 
The Saints just didn't have enough to keep up with the Falcons and Bucs. They're lacking a bit in the skill players, have a couple of holes on the OL and were hurt defensively with Vince's injury and a tough safety situation. Definitely a team that could contend next year, as they've got some young guys who should grow into solid contributors (Mingo, Moore, J. Thomas). 
The Panthers had Weeden, Weedz and Martin. That's a pretty big hole to dig out of. But at least they've got a good secondary! 

 
I am quoting El Cab's post, in total, as he pretty much nailed the analysis I was writing.  Falcons, Bucs, Saints, and my Sex Panthers.  The Falcons offense is both good now and looking good for the long haul, and the defense is solid (although that one grade for Robert Quinn does really skew things, I didnt see enough of him this year to determine if he was playing at a Geno Atkins level all year).  I do think the Bucs are a wild card contender, and should get better.
 
Weedz was my 4th rounder.  What a waste.  I thought I killed it with that pick there.  
 
My overall goal was to draft young (under 25 if possible) and build long term.  I knew I wasnt going to get much at QB picking where I was, so I wanted to focus on OL, pass catchers, and secondary.  I think I did ok in the secondary.  I think I did ok as far as the pass catchers that didn't murder anyone (Shorts, Cobb, Bush).  My OL is a disaster, and is going to need to be rebuilt.  Need some work on the DL, but my linebackers are decent, and I think my DBs are pretty good.  More later, when work doesnt interfere with my internet life.  

 

[SMU_Sox]

Falcons have a few studs in their front 7 and their secondary is all average to above average. The Falcons also have problems with their O-Line. I think a bad/injured O-Line + no notable RB's = trouble but no one in this division is built to take them down. I like the Bucs and the Saints to fight for second place and a WC. 
 
I keep flipping between Bucs and Falcons but I'm just not sold on the hammer as a starting QB. The Falcons have just enough to beat out the competition here.

 

[Phragle]

Falcons
Bucs
Saints
Panthers
 
Not sure the Bradford injury hurts the Bucs. Mallett could be better.

 

[bsj]

So first of all thanks to MMS for doing this. Really nice to see this laid out. 
 
I think we have a nice nucleus to build from here in Atlanta. Obviously we have the only franchise QB in the division (with a noted TBD on Bradford), which is an excellent place to start. Our backup QB situation needs addressing going forward. BJ Daniels has not proven to be capable at the position, and as of now, our only option for a change of pace has been for Pryor to run a wildcat type offense out of how super slash role. We will likely be exploring options there moving forward.
 
RB is a significant hole (although, surprisingly, we are not as far behind the rest of the division here as I feared). Injuries have played a role, with Ballard going down. However, it does seem apparent that his real life role may be diminished, so we are likely going to need to consider an upgrade here. I still believe in Hunter as a capable backup. 
 
Tight end needs to be addressed. Gresham is a backup at best moving forward. I actually think we are far worse comparable to the rest of the division here than at RB.
 
Thankfully, our WR corps is ridiculous. Demaryius and Gordon stretching the field on the outside and Baldwin running a hybrid slot role. I think this is the best 1-2-3 at the position in the league. We are going to going to continue to spread the field and hopefully will be able to stretch defenses to the point that our otherwise middling run game can gain momentum. 
 
The way I build this line, I knew the guards would be the weak spot. I am fine with that. We will be addressing at least one if not both of these positions moving forward. But I love our tackles, and I am ok with our center. I think this is a workable, and while not a super strength, is probably only trails the Saints in the division (although the lack of a 5th starter, IMO, brings that team much closer than the numbers indicate).
 
Love our front 7 on D. Statistically the best in the division and that's with no Jerod Mayo for the bulk of the season. Definitely some areas in which we will be seek upgrades (Herzlich for one), but I think that this is the best unit in the division. 
 
I didnt love the secondary when I drafted it. But honestly, its not bad. No holes. I think Shamarko will evolve into a slightly above average player at his position. Im not sure there are any "shut down" guys in this unit, but there are no real weak spots to pinpoint either.
 
Special teams are what they are., Hauschka has evolved into a pretty damn good kicker. Best in the division. Bucs get the edge on punter.
 
Looking at competition, The Bucs are clearly right there. I see us as an 11-12 win team, with the Bucs at 10+. I have a hard time seeing the Bucs overtaking us as I cannot see Bradford staying upright long enough to get the ball to Dez given Fisher's current state of play. But they are, IMO, a playoff caliber squad. 
 
The Panthers seemed to be the definition of bad luck this season with Cobb, hernandez, martin, etc. This is a team I think may be ripe for a quick recovery, although they badly need an upgrade at QB. 
 
The Saints seem like they have room to grow. Bad luck with injuries there, but still a lot of holes on defense. Despite what the numbers say, I actually think this team, while slightly better at present, may be farther away from true contender status than the Panthers. 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Bump.  Poll added.

 

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

I voted Falcons first, me (Panthers) last, which is the same way everyone else has voted, apparently.  I seriously think I have a shot at the #1 pick (if we end up going that way,rather than just flipping the order).  I can certainly argue it with a straight face-I have a terrible QB and no offensive or defensive line.  

 

[Saturnian]

I voted Falcons first, Panthers last.
 
As for my team, how about that (4-man) offensive line!  That is by far the best unit on the Saints, they are surrounded by little else on offense outside of two TEs.  As a side note, i don't have access to the PFF grades, but I was surprised to see Julius Thomas with a negative grade.  I take it he's that bad at run blocking?  I find it interesting in light of Jimmy Graham's desire to be labelled a WR for franchise tag purposes to see another area where the new wave of pass catching first (only?) TEs get dinged, as I assume Thomas' receiving grade was among the best for the position.  Going forward, we need to address RG, and RB, though I think I could average 4.0 ypc running behind the left of this OL.  On defense, losing Wilfork was definitely a big blow.  Another thing that blows: our safeties.  The CBs are ok, and Suh is a stud, but none of the rookies contributed anything, and DE and LB need a talent infusion.
 
Drafting 31st, I at least hit on those first 2 picks (Staley, Suh).  Alex Smith is the definition of serviceable, but the opportunity cost of picking him (-0.6) in the 3rd round shows that I probably should have punted on QB and taken a more "valuable" player.  The next 10 picks or so were fine, but the Huff/Perry/Idonije/Richardson/Little/Rambo picks from rounds 14 to 19 should be a fireable offense (collectively grade out at -42.4!).  We righted the ship and got some contributors late and in the supplemental rounds, but there are a lot of holes that need to be addressed before this team contends for anything.
 
Lastly, many thanks to MMS for putting this all together.  Very cool to see the results of last year's draft.

 

[Super Nomario]

As a side note, i don't have access to the PFF grades, but I was surprised to see Julius Thomas with a negative grade.  I take it he's that bad at run blocking?  I find it interesting in light of Jimmy Graham's desire to be labelled a WR for franchise tag purposes to see another area where the new wave of pass catching first (only?) TEs get dinged, as I assume Thomas' receiving grade was among the best for the position.

Your assumptions are correct. They have him as the 3rd-best receiving TE (+10.7, trails only Gronk and Graham) and second-worst run-blocking (-17.8, ahead of only Dickson). I don't think it makes sense to add these two numbers as if they have equal impact. Also, the run blocking grades for TEs are pretty messed up. 49 TEs have negative run-blocking grades, and only 14 are positive. I wouldn't take Thomas' overall PFF grade seriously.
 

Drafting 31st, I at least hit on those first 2 picks (Staley, Suh).  Alex Smith is the definition of serviceable, but the opportunity cost of picking him (-0.6) in the 3rd round shows that I probably should have punted on QB and taken a more "valuable" player.

Eh. I mean, you could have hit on Foles, but Smith is better than pretty much any other QB you could have gotten at that point. I wouldn't second-guess that one too much.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Most boring vote ever.