Red Sox 2015 AAV

In my lifetime

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[tablegrid= Red Sox 2015 AAV Calculation ] Pos'n ML Srv Length / Total Value 2014 2015 Napoli, Mike 1b 7.151 2 yr/$32M (14-15) $16,000,000   $16.00   Ortiz, David dh 15.048 2 yr/$26M (13-14) 1 yr/$16M (15)+16-17 opts $15,500,000   $16.00   Cespedes, Yoenis lf 2 4 yr/$36M (12-15) $10,500,000   $9.00   Victorino, Shane rf 8.092 3 yr/$39M (13-15) $13,000,000   $13.00   Pedroia, Dustin 2b 7.041 8 yr/$110M (14-21) $12,625,000   $13.75   Buchholz, Clay rhp-s 5.059 4 yr/$29.945M (12-15)+16-17 opts $7,950,000   $7.55   Mujica, Edward rhp 6.115 2 yr/$9.5M (14-15) $4,750,000   $4.75   Uehara, Koji rhp-c 5 1 yr/$4.25M (13)+14 v opt $4,250,000   ?$7.00   Breslow, Craig lhp 6.088 2 yr/$6.25M (13-14) $3,825,000   $0.10 gone   Ross, David c 11.001 2 yr/$6.2M (13-14) $3,100,000   $3.20?replaced   Craig, Allen rf-lb 3.077 5 yr/$31M (13-17)+18 cl opt $2,750,000   $6.40   Badenhop, Burke rhp 5.116 1 yr/$2.15M (14) $2,150,000   FA Castillo, Rusney of 0 7 yr/$72.5M (14-20) $871,400   10.35 Herrera, Jonathan inf 4.001 1 yr/$1.3M (14) $1,300,000   $1.40   Tazawa, Junichi rhp 3.086 1 yr/$1.275M (14) $1,275,000   $2.50   Nava, Daniel lf 2.066 1 yr/$0.5565M (14) $556,500   $1.40   Middlebrooks, Will 3b 1.121 1 yr/$0.5405M (14) $540,500   $0.55   Kelly, Joe rhp-s 1.06 1 yr/$0.523M (14) $523,000   $0.55   Workman, Brandon rhp 0.083 1 yr/$0.518M (14) $518,000   $0.55   Bogaerts, Xander ss 0.042 1 yr/$0.517M (14) $517,000   $0.55   Bradley, Jackie Jr. cf 0.059 1 yr/$0.502M (14) $502,000   $0.55   Betts, Mookie 2b 0 1 yr (14)   $0.55   De La Rosa, Rubby rhp 1.158 1 yr (14)   $2.00   Escobar, Edwin lhp 0 1 yr (14)   $0.55   Hembree, Heath rhp 0.027 1 yr (14)   $0.55   Holt, Brock ss 0.08 1 yr (14)   $0.55   Ranaudo, Anthony rhp 0 1 yr (14)   $0.55   Vazquez, Christian c 0 1 yr (14)   $0.55   Webster, Allen rhp 0.044 1 yr (14)   $0.55         annual payments to Dodgers $3,900,000   $3.90   Players 27-40         $1.50   Benefit est+40 man         $13.00   TOTAL - BOS     2014 total as of 3/31/14 $156,350,125   $139.4   Tax Threshold         $189   Budget Room         $49.6    [/tablegrid] 
 
Chart is updated as of 9/14.
 
Changes include Koji @ ~7M since I would approximate his AAV in that neighborhood with his late season performance. I believe he has 0 chance for a QO currently.
Castillo added
 
Significant needs include:
#1 starter
#2/3 starter
Filling out the BP
3B
Half of Catcher platoon (although that expense is included at 3.2 above) 
 
Chart corrected as per 2 corrections below. Interesting aspect is that by starting Castillo's contract this year and paying him a prorated share allows the AAV to be reduced from almost 12M to 10.35M.  A very smart move from both getting Castillo back on the field and saving almost 2 million in the luxury tax calculation.
 

In my lifetime

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In my lifetime said:
[tablegrid= Red Sox 2015 AAV Calculation ] Pos'n ML Srv Length / Total Value 2014 2015 Napoli, Mike 1b 7.151 2 yr/$32M (14-15) $16,000,000   $16.00   Ortiz, David dh 15.048 2 yr/$26M (13-14) 1 yr/$16M (15)+16-17 opts $15,500,000   $16.00   Cespedes, Yoenis lf 2 4 yr/$36M (12-15) $10,500,000   $9.00   Victorino, Shane rf 8.092 3 yr/$39M (13-15) $13,000,000   $13.00   Pedroia, Dustin 2b 7.041 8 yr/$110M (14-21) $12,625,000   $13.75   Buchholz, Clay rhp-s 5.059 4 yr/$29.945M (12-15)+16-17 opts $7,950,000   $7.55   Mujica, Edward rhp 6.115 2 yr/$9.5M (14-15) $4,750,000   $4.75   Uehara, Koji rhp-c 5 2 yr/$18M (15,16) $4,250,000   $9.00   Breslow, Craig lhp 6.088 2 yr/$6.25M (13-14) $3,825,000   $0.10?gone   Ross, David c 11.001 2 yr/$6.2M (13-14) $3,100,000   $3.20?replaced   Craig, Allen rf-lb 3.077 5 yr/$31M (13-17)+18 cl opt $2,750,000   $6.40   Badenhop, Burke rhp 5.116 1 yr/$2.15M (14) $2,150,000   FA Castillo, Rusney of 0 7 yr/$72.5M (14-20) $871,400   10.35 Tazawa, Junichi rhp 3.086 1 yr/$1.275M (14) $1,275,000   $2.50   Nava, Daniel lf 2.066 1 yr/$0.5565M (14) $556,500   $1.40   Middlebrooks, Will 3b 1.121 1 yr/$0.5405M (14) $540,500   $0.55   Kelly, Joe rhp-s 1.06 1 yr/$0.523M (14) $523,000   $0.55   Workman, Brandon rhp 0.083 1 yr/$0.518M (14) $518,000   $0.55   Bogaerts, Xander ss 0.042 1 yr/$0.517M (14) $517,000   $0.55   Bradley, Jackie Jr. cf 0.059 1 yr/$0.502M (14) $502,000   $0.55   Betts, Mookie 2b 0 1 yr (14)   $0.55   De La Rosa, Rubby rhp 1.158 1 yr (14)   $2.00   Escobar, Edwin lhp 0 1 yr (14)   $0.55   Hembree, Heath rhp 0.027 1 yr (14)   $0.55   Holt, Brock ss 0.08 1 yr (14)   $0.55   Ranaudo, Anthony rhp 0 1 yr (14)   $0.55   Vazquez, Christian c 0 1 yr (14)   $0.55   Webster, Allen rhp 0.044 1 yr (14)   $0.55         annual payments to Dodgers $3,900,000   $3.90   Players 26-40         $1.50   Benefit est+40 man         $13.00   TOTAL - BOS     2014 total as of 3/31/14 $156,350,125   $140.0   Tax Threshold         $189   Budget Room         $49.0    [/tablegrid] 
 
Chart is updated as of the Koji signing on 10/30/14
 
Significant needs include:
#1 starter
#2/3 starter
Filling out the BP, ie, primarily at this point Miller or his replacement.  The rest are already in house as cost controlled options.
3B
Half of Catcher platoon (although that expense is included at 3.2 above) 
 
 
 
 
1st signing:  Koji.
Let the Hot Stove Season begin
 

KillerBs

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The key number above being 49M in 189m budget for 2015 payroll, which becomes 52M if you subtract Ross's money out, as I think you need to do. Lester (25), Sandoval (18) and Miller (9) would take you right to the 52M.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Gotta leave something for the possibility of a trade deadline acquisition, I would think, unless the team is simply prepared to go over the tax limit if that opportunity presents itself.
 

YTF

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I think you might be a little high for Lester and maybe Miller depending on what other teams plans for him would be.  I'm OK with the Sandoval, but my question is how many years are you willing to go with each? Personally, I wouldn't go more than 3 with Sandoval, but he isn't biting on that and I also think the Sox should bring Ross back. I sense him wanting to finish here and he seems to fit in well with the coaching staff and pitching staff.
 

lxt

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I think going for Headley would be a better option as he'd run about $14Million. Panda's physical conditioning scares the hell out of me. I know he's been able to do well thus far but he's getting older and the conditioning is going to play more of a role. I think Panda is better offensively but Headley is the better glove. The rumors about Donaldson been available from Oakland sound exciting but would cost prospects. On the "Lester" board I said Lester would get $25million a year in a front loaded contract but I doubt for the full life of the contract - years could be a factor - 3 years at $25million would be acceptable. However, I think Lester will want at least 5 years at about $22-24 million. I'm thinking Miller will take 3/$24million but two at $9million would be acceptable. 
 
So let's say $47Million if the Sox can get Headley, Miller & Lester (3 years - doubtful) or $45-46Million if the Sox go 5 years with Lester. The available money goes up if the Sox go for Donaldson by about $8 - 10million. Donaldson may be the way to go to keep money for another arm in the rotation or two additions in the pen.
 
KillerBs said:


The key number above being 49M in 189m budget for 2015 payroll, which becomes 52M if you subtract Ross's money out, as I think you need to do. Lester (25), Sandoval (18) and Miller (9) would take you right to the 52M.
 

Plympton91

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soxhop411 said:
https://twitter.com/JMastrodonato/status/527963009625628672"]1m1

link to tweet minute ago[/url]
Cherington on WEEI says he expects the Red Sox to have one of the top payrolls in the game next year.
 
[URL="https://twitter.com/JMastrodonato/status/527963009625628672

https://twitter.com/JMastrodonato/status/527963009625628672"]https://twitter.com/JMastrodonato/status/527963009625628672

link to tweet[/url]

That sounds promising, and smart. Going over the luxury tax next year doesn't necessarily mean they have to stay over for very long, as in 2016 they replace Victorino with JBJ as a 4th outfielder, they replace Napoli with Travis Shaw or similar corner infield backup as Craig hopefully assumes 1B full time, and they maybe replace Cespedes with a Cecchini/Brentz platoon at league minimum too.
 

67WasBest

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I've been thinking since mid season they would overspend this year, with the intention of dropping back below the line in 2016.  They have the three year windfall of revenue sharing cash they just received and I've been hoping they would use it this way.
 
Of course the Sox are always among the highest payroll teams and the statement could be simple GM speak.
 

Fireball Fred

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The Sox are well-positioned to go high for the next year or two. They have some biggish contracts winding down (Ortiz, Victorino, Napoli), plus Cespedes who might be traded; and they have pretty good cost-controlled talent going forward. The key contract has to be for at least one very good starter with a future - they're going to have to go 5-6 years at $20m+, I believe. If they can get that, it'll be time to recalculate needs and resources; if they can't, they're not really in a position to "go for it'" which should also lead to some recalculation.
 

In my lifetime

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[tablegrid= Red Sox 2015 AAV Calculation ] Pos'n ML Srv Length / Total Value   2015 Ramirez, HanleyLF?9.014 4yr/$88M (15-18)    $22.00 Sandoval, Pablo3B6.057 5yr/$98 (15-19)   $19.60Napoli, Mike 1b 7.151 2 yr/$32M (14-15)   $16.00   Ortiz, David dh 15.048 2 yr/$26M (13-14) 1 yr/$16M (15)+16-17 opts   $16.00   Cespedes, Yoenis lf 2 4 yr/$36M (12-15)   $9.00   Victorino, Shane rf 8.092 3 yr/$39M (13-15) $13.00   Pedroia, Dustin 2b 7.041 8 yr/$110M (14-21)   $13.75   Buchholz, Clay rhp-s 5.059 4 yr/$29.945M (12-15)+16-17 opts   $7.55   Mujica, Edward rhp 6.115 2 yr/$9.5M (14-15)   $4.75   Uehara, Koji rhp-c 5 2 yr/$18M (15,16)   $9.00   ?Reliever         ?   ?Back up Catcher c     ?   Craig, Allen rf-lb 3.077 5 yr/$31M (13-17)+18 cl opt   $6.40   ?Reliever       ? Castillo, Rusney of 0 7 yr/$72.5M (14-20)   10.35 Tazawa, Junichi rhp 3.086 1 yr/$1.275M (14)   $2.50   Nava, Daniel lf 2.066 1 yr/$0.5565M (14)   $1.40   Middlebrooks, Will 3b 1.121 1 yr/$0.5405M (14)   $0.55   Kelly, Joe rhp-s 1.06 1 yr/$0.523M (14)   $0.55   Workman, Brandon rhp 0.083 1 yr/$0.518M (14)   $0.55   Bogaerts, Xander ss 0.042 1 yr/$0.517M (14)   $0.55   Bradley, Jackie Jr. cf 0.059 1 yr/$0.502M (14)   $0.55   Betts, Mookie 2b 0 1 yr (14)   $0.55   De La Rosa, Rubby rhp 1.158 1 yr (14)   $2.00   Escobar, Edwin lhp 0 1 yr (14)   $0.55   Holt, Brock ss 0.08 1 yr (14)   $0.55   Ranaudo, Anthony rhp 0 1 yr (14)   $0.55   Vazquez, Christian c 0 1 yr (14)   $0.55   Webster, Allen rhp 0.044 1 yr (14)   $0.55         annual payments to Dodgers   $3.90   Players 26-40         $1.50   Benefit est+40 man         $13.00   TOTAL - BOS         $178.4   Tax Threshold         $189   Room until Tax         $10.6    [/tablegrid] 
 
Quite a haul for 24 hrs.
Obviously other shoes to drop
?Lester signing @ ~ 5/130
Trades most likely Cespedes + Prospects for #2 starter
Filling out bullpen
Back up catcher
 
Figuring #1 starter @22M (?Lester)
#2 starter @15M
Shedding Cespedes (@9M)
Back up C @2M
2 Relievers @ a total of 10M
 
That would be a total of 40M more or an approximate total of 219M for a team that would start the season as likely WS favorite.  I never thought they would just obliterate the luxury tax number next year.  And maybe they just go over by a few million by signing/trading for an Ace, using in house options to fill the rotation, and inexpensive options for back up C and the bullpen. 
 

KillerBs

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If we assume conservatively another $28-30M added to 2015 payroll, to 205M, you could think of it as a choice now between:
 
1. Lester, and a back up catcher, or
2. Liriano (or his ilk), a back up catcher and Andrew Miller.
 
IOW for 25M, would you rather Lester OR a second tier 13-15M SP plus Miller.
 
In either case, a more or less revenue neutral deal -- Cespedes for a SP -- can be assumed. 
 
Option 2 certainly leaves you additional payroll flexibility in 2018-20.
 
If OTOH the Sox arent adding that kind of money to the payroll in 2015, ie the total 2014-15 FA expenditures are going to be closer to the 50M initially floated, one does have to wonder about using 80% of budget to sign Pablo and Hanley.
 

In my lifetime

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KillerBs said:
If we assume conservatively another $28-30M added to 2015 payroll, to 205M, you could think of it as a choice now between:
 
1. Lester, and a back up catcher, or
2. Liriano (or his ilk), a back up catcher and Andrew Miller.
 
IOW for 25M, would you rather Lester OR a second tier 13-15M SP plus Miller.
 
In either case, a more or less revenue neutral deal -- Cespedes for a SP -- can be assumed. 
 
Option 2 certainly leaves you additional payroll flexibility in 2018-20.
 
If OTOH the Sox arent adding that kind of money to the payroll in 2015, ie the total 2014-15 FA expenditures are going to be closer to the 50M initially floated, one does have to wonder about using 80% of budget to sign Pablo and Hanley.
 
I have a hard time believing the RS with their BP currently composed of Koji, Tazawa, Mujica + young arms believe that the most effective use of an additional 10M for 3-4 years is to sign Miller.  Whatever their budget unless it is North of 220M, I would think the money remaining will be 30-40M spent on starting pitching and ~5M spent on a back up catcher and rounding out the BP.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Bump. Let's not lose sight of this thread.
 
Assuming Cespedes is gone @ 9M - the team is sitting at ~$170M
 
+ 2 Starters
+ B/U Catcher
 
I'm not certain what to say about the bullpen.
 
They were willing to risk $22.5M on #1 Lester*  - raising the bar to ~$182M + 1 starter + b/u catcher.
 
Posts #14 and #15 seem to remain valid except for maybe an allocation of $10M for relief help.
 
*Note: Exact amount that Hamels would cost in 2015.
 

KillerBs

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For the helluva it. 
 
If the Sox had stood pat and signed/kept everyone with 2013 WS team, with 2015 salary
 
C -- Salty 7, Vaz 1
1b -- Napoli 16
2b -- Pedroia 12.5
3b -- Holt 1, WMB/GC 1
ss -- Bogie 1
lf -- Betts 1, Gomes 3
cf -- Ellsbury 22
rf -- Vic 13, Nava 2
dh -- Ortiz  16
 
sp -- Lester 25, Lackey 8?, Buchholz 13, Peavy 5?, RDLR or Doubront or Webster etc 
rf -- Koji 9, Miller 9, Taz 2, other kids, Workman, Wright, Layne et al
 
that also comes to around 170M, which is about where we sit now.
 
Enough room to add Rusney, Sandoval or Ramirez if Sox inclined to push payroll up to 190-200, for one year.  
 
Obviously you could amend slightly with judicious drops of Peavy, Salty, even Ells. 
 
Not saying we could have got Lester, Miller, Ells, Lackey at these figures, maybe less maybe a bit more depending on how things played out. It is more of a thought experiment. 
 
Are we better off today then we would be with this hypothetical team? acknowledging the current team is a work in process. 
 

In my lifetime

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Add Wade Miley as a starter.
Adds a projected Arb # of 4.3 Million
 
Subtract De La Rosa projected 2.0 M
 
 
So now I have the RS at ~180.7.
 
I think this move probably means the RS will sign or trade for 2 more pitchers.  Maybe their approach is to get "deep depth" in the rotation by adding one top of the rotation starter while adding an additional 3/4/5 type like Masterson.  Then hope that someone they currently have on the staff becomes a true #2 quality starter.  With their improved line-up I am fine with that approach, but still waiting on getting one Ace or at least a dependable solid #2.
 

In my lifetime

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In my lifetime said:
[tablegrid= Red Sox 2015 AAV Calculation ] Pos'n ML Srv Length / Total Value   2015 Ramirez, HanleyLF9.014 4yr/$88M (15-18)   $22.00 Sandoval, Pablo3B6.057 5yr/$98 (15-19)  $19.60Napoli, Mike 1b 8.151 2 yr/$32M (14-15)   $16.00   Ortiz, David dh 16.048 1 yr/$16M (15)+16-17 opts   $16.00   Porcello, Rick rhp-s 5.17 Arb est 1yr/$12.3M (15)   $12.3 Victorino, Shane rf 9.092 3 yr/$39M (13-15) $13.00   Pedroia, Dustin 2b 8.041 8 yr/$110M (14-21)   $13.75   Buchholz, Clay rhp-s 6.059 4 yr/$29.945M (12-15)+16-17 opts   $7.55   Mujica, Edward rhp 7.115 2 yr/$9.5M (14-15)   $4.75   Uehara, Koji rhp-c 6 2 yr/$18M (15,16)   $9.00   Miley, Wade lhp-s 3.044  Arb est $4.3M (15)   $3.2  Masterson, Justin rhp-s  6.108   1 yr/$9.5M (+2.5M in innings pitched incentives)   $9.5   Hanigan, Ryan c 6.077 3 yr/10.75 (14-16) + 17 opt (buyout 800k)   $3.85 Craig, Allen rf-lb 4.077 5 yr/$31M (13-17)+18 cl opt   $6.40   Breslow, Craig lhp 7.088 1 yr/$2.0M     $2.0 Castillo, Rusney of 0.012 7 yr/$72.5M (14-20)   $10.35 Tazawa, Junichi rhp 4.086 1 yr/$1.275M (14)   $2.50   Nava, Daniel lf 3.045   $1.40   Varvaro, Anthony  rhp 2.121     $0.55   Kelly, Joe rhp-s 2.116     $0.55   Workman, Brandon rhp 1.018     $0.55   Bogaerts, Xander ss 1.042     $0.55   Bradley, Jackie Jr. cf 1.059     $0.55   Betts, Mookie 2b/of 0.070     $0.55  Escobar, Edwin lhp 0.016     $0.55   Holt, Brock if/of 1.052     $0.55   Ranaudo, Anthony rhp 0.032     $0.55   Vazquez, Christian c 0.082     $0.55                 annual payments to Dodgers   $3.90   Players 26-40         $1.50   Benefit est+40 man         $13.00   TOTAL - BOS         ~$199M   Tax Threshold         $189M   Over Tax         Over ~10M  [/tablegrid] 
 
 

 
Updated for the last 12 hrs of trades and free agents
 
Added Miley 4.3 M est
Porcello  12.3 M est
Masterson 9.5M
 
Subtracted De La Rosa  2.0 M
Cespedes  9.0 M
(Webster was @ minimum so he will be replaced by another player at minimum, resulting in no net change)
 
So the RS  have managed to fill out their entire rotation with the exception of a #1/2 for the very reasonable net price of 4.5 M of AAV 
 
They sit at 193.5 by my estimation over the tax threshold #
Looks like the final AAV number if they get a #1/2 starter will be a little over 210M. A lot of contracts that come off in 2016, so they could dip below the tax threshold number in 2016, which is important for revenue sharing rebate, etc.
 
Needs
#1/2 Starter?
1 Reliever? (now figuring the rest of bullpen will be filled by excess starters (young and old) 
Back up Catcher
 
This must be a record for time elapsed turning over 60% of a starting rotation. 
 
12/19 Edit: Added Hanigan, Varvaro, Breslow
Deleted: WMB
 

In my lifetime

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HangingW/ScottCooper said:
I heard an estimate of $4.3 for Miley. Also, $9.5 for Masterson.
 
Very tough to keep up today.
What a whirlwind.
 
Add 9.5 for Masterson
I also saw the estimate of 4.3, so I will change it to that
 
Brings payroll to 193.5
 
Certainly have deep depth in the rotation if the RS still add an ace.  
 

The Boomer

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In my lifetime said:
 
Very tough to keep up today.
What a whirlwind.
 
Add 9.5 for Masterson
I also saw the estimate of 4.3, so I will change it to that
 
Brings payroll to 193.5
 
Certainly have deep depth in the rotation if the RS still add an ace.  
 
This starts them at a number much closer to the tax limit, as I expected, than where they would have started with Lester.  This is a better starting place.  They will only want to go significantly above this if, because they are contenders, they pursue more of an Ace starter closer to the trade deadline.  While significantly improved, you don't want to vault unreasonably far above this limit until you see that, because of this, you are on track to go from worst to maybe first again.
 

Bowlerman9

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FYI, I believe the Sandoval contract is only 5/95, so his AAV is $19M.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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67WasBest said:
$5M buyout has to be included.  Brings it to 5/100
 
The 5/95 includes the buyout.  Per Cots...
 
$17M + $17M + $17M + $18M + $18M + $3M signing bonus + $5 buyout = $95M
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I know the team has intimated that it would not be constrained by the luxury tax, at least this year, but I wonder if the ability to stay within the limit might influence their preferences and moves from here on out.  Rather than trade for Hamels, get a much less expensive player, like Ross  (or, one can wish, S.Gray).  Maybe they use Miley or Kelly as part of the deal, and save money there.  They also could plan to trade Craig or, even better, Victorino, in the spring after they prove themselves healthy.  Then fill back-up C and the pen with cheap vets and youngsters.
 
I don't know that this plan is preferred, or even an option.  But it's doable.
 

In my lifetime

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Add Ryan Hanigan as back up catcher  3 yrs/10.75  (14-16) with '17 option.   AAV # of 3.85 (with 800k buyout included)
Add Anthony Varvaro as RHP 1 yr/~minimum
 
 
Puts RS at 197M
or about 8M over
 
 
They have checked off a lot on their Christmas list.
 
All except perhaps
#1/2 starter
1 more BP arm
 

lxt

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In my lifetime said:
Add Ryan Hanigan as back up catcher  3 yrs/10.75  (14-16) with '17 option.   AAV # of 3.583
Add Anthony Varvaro as RHP 1 yr/~minimum
 
 
Puts RS at 197M
or about 8M over
 
 
They have checked off a lot on their Christmas list.
 
All except perhaps
#1/2 starter
1 more BP arm
They can sit tight with what they have and ride it into the season. Let things shake out and look for deal around All-star break. May give them option to trade Craig and receive something back of value ... BP arm. Not yet sold on need for SP #1. At this point they have only $8million over which is pretty good considering who they have add.
 

In my lifetime

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Now add Breslow at 2 M for 1 year
 
RS at an AAV of ~199 M  (10 M over tax threshold)
 
Roster looks fairly set unless they decide to make a move for #1/2 pitcher.
 
Roster also has enough coming off the books to go under the threshold number in 2016 (Napoli, Victorino, Ortiz, Mujica among others)
 

In my lifetime

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[tablegrid= Red Sox 2015 AAV Calculation ][/tdb] Pos'n ML Srv Length / Total Value   2015 [/tr]Ramirez, HanleyLF9.014 4yr/$88M (15-18)   $22.00 Sandoval, Pablo3B6.057 5yr/$98 (15-19)  $19.60Napoli, Mike 1b 8.151 2 yr/$32M (14-15)   $16.00   Ortiz, David dh 16.048 1 yr/$16M (15)+16-17 opts   $16.00   Porcello, Rick rhp-s 5.17 1yr/$12.5M   $12.5 Victorino, Shane rf 9.092 3 yr/$39M (13-15) $13.00   Pedroia, Dustin 2b 8.041 8 yr/$110M (14-21)   $13.75   Buchholz, Clay rhp-s 6.059 4 yr/$29.945M (12-15)+16-17 opts   $7.55   Mujica, Edward rhp 7.115 2 yr/$9.5M (14-15)   $4.75   Uehara, Koji rhp-c 6 2 yr/$18M (15,16)   $9.00   Miley, Wade lhp-s 3.044  3 yr/$19.25 (15-17) +12M team option   $6.42 Masterson, Justin rhp-s  6.108   1 yr/$9.5M (+2.5M in innings pitched incentives)   $9.5   Hanigan, Ryan c 6.077 3 yr/10.75 (14-16) + 17 opt (buyout 800k)   $3.85 Craig, Allen rf-lb 4.077 5 yr/$31M (13-17)+18 cl opt   $6.40   Breslow, Craig lhp 7.088 1 yr/$2.0M     $2.0 Castillo, Rusney of 0.012 7 yr/$72.5M (14-20)   $10.35 Tazawa, Junichi rhp 4.086 1 yr/$1.275M (14)   $2.50   Nava, Daniel lf 3.045 1 yr/$1.85   $1.85   Varvaro, Anthony  rhp 2.121     $0.55   Kelly, Joe rhp-s 2.116     $0.55   Workman, Brandon rhp 1.018     $0.55   Bogaerts, Xander ss 1.042     $0.55   Bradley, Jackie Jr. cf 1.059     $0.55   Betts, Mookie 2b/of 0.070     $0.55  Escobar, Edwin lhp 0.016     $0.55   Holt, Brock if/of 1.052     $0.55   Ross, Robbie lhp 2.112     $0.55   Vazquez, Christian c 0.082     $0.55   Ogando, Alexi   rhp 4.114 1 yr/$1.5M + 1.5M incentives   $1.50+        annual payments to Dodgers   $3.90   Players 26-40         $1.50   Benefit est+40 man         $13.00   TOTAL - BOS         ~$204.6M   Tax Threshold         $189M   Over Tax         Over ~15.6M  [/tablegrid] 
 
Updated as the RS have rounded out the BP with Ross and Ogando. Nava's new contract.
RS are now over 200M for luxury tax purposes.
 

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Chart updated for Miley signing.  The interesting and one of the smart aspects to buying out Miley's arbitration years is that it distributes the salary evenly. Therefore, the RS AAV in 2015, when they are over the limit as a 1st time offender (lower rate) is almost 3M higher.  However in the 3rd year of the deal, the AAV is decreased by 3 M, assuming his pitching results/market conditions make the 3.5/6/8.75 reflective of what Miley would have received in 1 year arb. contracts for those year.  So this makes it easier for the RS to get under the luxury tax number in 2017, which of course has the advantage of resetting the rate.
 
To me each of the years is actually a little lower than he would have received if he pitches as currently projected  (example-the figure for this year is 50k above the figure the RS exchanged as opposed to a projected number of ~3.8) and the 12 million dollar option for the first year he would have been eligible to test free agency could also have significant value.  Miley traded some future dollars for the security of a contract if he gets hurt or his performance declines.  
 

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That's a ways over the lux tax. 
 
Not to think too far ahead or too negatively, but, should 2015 be another lost crash 'n burn season, they could probably get under the tax by trading Napoli, Victorino, Masterson, Porcello (if he won't resign), maybe Mujica.   These are all guys who are FAs in 2015 anyway. 
 
I think you probably hold onto everyone else (or if you trade them, they won't get you under the cap.)  I'm assuming the new FAs aren't personality flameouts which'd mandate a trade.  I'm also assuming there's no blockbuster trade salary relief scenario.
 
I like this roster.  It's sort of a "we'd like to win now, but we're restocking one way or the other in '16" club.
 

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Two thoughts.
 
1. Craig may turn out to be the best deal of all. What a team-friendly contract.
 
2.Thought I'd add up money coming off the books in 2016 (to keep it as reference in this thread):
 
Napoli: $16.00
?Ortiz?: $16.00
?Porcello?: $12.50
Victorino: $13.00
?Buchholz?: $7.55
Mujica: $4.75
Masterson: $9.5
Breslow: $2.00
?Tazawa?: $2.50
Nava: 1.85
 
Total assumed reduction: $85.65 Million (or the entire projected payroll for the Braves)
 
Corrections?
 

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To bump the thread, now that there is certainly the possibility of the RS trying to get under the tax threshold.  That would reset the tax at 1st yr offenders and help save $ in 2016 and beyond if they are planning to go over.
 
Now that Victorino saves ~1.1
Craig off the 40 man saved ~6.0 (of his 6.4)
Mujica  - I couldn't find how much cash they pinned to his back to get rid of him. But let's assume they saved ~2.0 million of his 4.75 salary. Someone please pipe in if you know how much the figure actually is.
 
So that is about 9.1 in savings and probably about 1M to replace those players (Rutledge ~400k).
 
So if my calculations of ~15M over pre-season are approximately correct, the RS are now about 7M over.
I would expect the RS to try to get under by finding any takers of salary for
Napoli
Masterson
Breslow
 
 
Maybe out of the final ~12M they owe those 3 players, they can somehow miraculously save 7M. It certainly won't be easy and I would not even expect a bag of balls in return to shed that much salary.  But there is no harm in trying as none of those 3 players should be on the RS roster in 2016.  It might also involve packaging De Aza with 1 of the 3 (RS are not responsible for much of his 5M annual salary), to make it worthwhile for a team to take on more salary to hit the ~7M savings. 
 
Getting under the threshold now would be a good sign that the RS will go over in 2016. I think the RS rightfully feel pressure to be a playoff bound team in 2016 after 2 last place finishes in a row, and it will probably take a significant increase in salary to get there. 
 

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snowmanny said:
Maybe that's a reason to trade Uehara
 
I was thinking the exact same thing. He is certainly not a slam dunk to be worth 9M in 2016 and provides a significant benefit to a playoff bound team this year.  He is valuable enough that the return should be a decent prospect (maybe 1 top 30-40 prospect).