Red Sox acquire Drew Pomeranz for Anderson Espinoza

Julius.R

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Ugh, not a fan of this trade. Our organizational pitching depth isn't as deep as we thought it was and this trade relies heavily on the outbreak of Kopech and Groome. While I have high hopes for both of them I would have rather have traded Devers and thrown in a secondary prospect of lesser value. Espinoza could easily bust, but I'm worried about missing out on his potential.
 

tims4wins

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Ugh, not a fan of this trade. Our organizational pitching depth isn't as deep as we thought it was and this trade relies heavily on the outbreak of Kopech and Groome. While I have high hopes for both of them I would have rather have traded Devers and thrown in a secondary prospect of lesser value. Espinoza could easily bust, but I'm worried about missing out on his potential.
"I'd rather trade three [lesser]-type guys than Anderson, but that wasn't appealing to San Diego," Dombrowski said. "They really wanted more of the focus of the premium guy. There's always risk with pitchers, no matter how old they are. We know that Drew hasn't thrown this many innings. We think he can handle it. We also know there's a risk in Anderson, a young pitcher that we like a great deal."
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Back to Pomeranz for a moment.

What worries me is that he's been a very good pitcher for exactly two months. People seem to be crediting this to the development of a cutter. But how confident can we be that the cutter will stay this good? Surely part of his success came from the fact that it was newly developed and hence unexpected. But today there is two months of tape and hitters may now know what to look for. How often does a good two-month stretch like this turn into something longer lasting?
So we're just going to ignore 2014 (69 IP at a 159 ERA+)? 2015 (86 IP at 108 ERA+)? Or this year's 102 IP at 161 ERA+?

What you're saying is demonstrably false. Had you made a caveat as a starting pitcher, you might have had a point.
 

gammoseditor

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So going into the season with a veteran coming off an injury shortened season in which he had an ERA of 3.26, a 23 year old who finished his rookie year with a 3.85 ERA in 120 innings, and a young veteran who pitched to a 3.77 ERA in the second half as the back half of a rotation fronted by a former Cy Young winner was a mistake?

I can see arguments for maybe entrusting Joe Kelly with a rotation spot given his inconsistencies, but they also had Wright, Owens, Elias, and Johnson in the chute as well. Seems to me implying that Dombrowski committed some sort of malpractice last winter with how he assembled the rotation is a bit hyperbolic and 100% hindsight. You can't predict injuries (ERod, Kelly and Johnson) or complete collapses (Buchholz). If Dombrowski could, I'd imagine this team would look different and be about 20 games up in the division by now.
Clay has been great/terrible off and on for a while and hasn't been fully healthy for an entire season basically ever. Joe Kelly was really good when we were in last place and really awful when games mattered last year. Eduardo was a really good prospect and clearly a guy you want to have but you should probably have a backup plan for since he had a pitch tipping issue, a total of 21 starts, and a minor league injury history.

And results matter. Joe Kelly is averaging less than 4 innings per start with an ERA of 8.46. Eduardo Rodriguez is averaging less than 5 innings per start with an ERA of 8.59. They have both killed the bullpen.

And because we went into the season with them in the rotation, we just traded away a guy who could be the single pitcher in the minor leagues with the highest upside. We may win the world series anyway. I'm just saying Dombrowski probably doesn't deserve as much credit as some are giving him.
 

tims4wins

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So we're just going to ignore 2014 (69 IP at a 159 ERA+)? 2015 (86 IP at 108 ERA+)? Or this year's 102 IP at 161 ERA+?

What you're saying is demonstrably false. Had you made a caveat as a starting pitcher, you might have had a point.
Exactly. And it seems like lots of folks are conveniently ignoring the fact that Espinoza has struggled this year. He is under a K per IP, WHIP of 1.37.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Exactly. And it seems like lots of folks are conveniently ignoring the fact that Espinoza has struggled this year. He is under a K per IP, WHIP of 1.37.
I think a lot of people are ignoring the fact that an 18 year old pitching prospect has a much smaller chance of making a big league impact at some point than they realize. The Carl Pavano point was already made, but it bears noting. Pavano had a decent career but was no star. Guys like Brian Rose and Juan Pena and Casey Fossum disappear, never to be seen again. You like to have those guys as prospects, of course, but their success is the furthest thing from a given. TINSTAAPP, people.

It's not like Pomeranz is 34 with an ERA+ of 100 in, I dunno, Milwaukee. He's a 27 year old starting pitcher having an excellent season and he's under team control until 2018 at the earliest. He makes $1.3 million. He's in his prime as a pitcher and can be expected to be for several years. If you're going to trade an Espinosa, he's exactly the type of trade to acquire with that chip, not a 1/2 year rental or a Peavy-veteran type.
 

Rasputin

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The trade aside, it's not a good look that Dombrowski planned to go into the season giving rotation spots to Joe Kelly, Clay Buchholz, and Eduardo Rodriguez. The best guy on that list this year has been Clay Buccholz.
Nine guys. Nine.

Price, Porcello, Wright, Buchholz, Kelly, Owens, Johnson, Elias, Rodriguez.

Nine guys, all of whom could be reasonably expected to be halfway decent or better.
 

DJnVa

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Back to Pomeranz for a moment.

What worries me is that he's been a very good pitcher for exactly two months.
What would you call his 2014 and 2015 numbers of 155 IP, 122 H, FIP of 3.69, ERA+ of 125 and 146 Ks?
 

YTF

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yea i agree but greys performance and hills health would only bring the value down...i thought AE and some other throw ins might get it done. especially closer to the deadline. I know the market is thin but DP is buying high and selling low IMO.
I beg to differ I think the closer to the deadline the higher the price will get. There is virtually nothing worth getting excited about in the coming FA market. This trade deadline is for all intents and purposes will encompass both transaction periods. It's a sellers market at at a time when over half the teams in baseball should probably think of being buyers. Was the price for Pomeranz high? Maybe, maybe not, but in return The Sox got a guy who is pitching at his highest level so far at an age where he should be entering his prime with a couple years of team control left. Pomeranz may well have been the top trade target out there and the Sox got him. Lets say someone else gets him. Who's next in line, Rich Hill? At that point his price just went up because Pomeranz is gone. Do you think BB isn't asking for Espinoza? DO you take 2 months of Hill for Espinoza? Also IF Pomeranz works out as hoped you get 2-3 extra starts out of him by dealing for him now as well as eliminating the risk of him going to an A.L. competitor. This team should be in go for it now mode. Generally speaking you can't ask much more from the offense as a whole. DD has taken measures to improve the bench, added a proven arm to the bullpen and has now addressed another glaring need. Yeah I get that people were high on Espinoza, but who would you rather give up? A couple of years ago people wanted to put Henry Owens into that group of untouchables, now he would be considered filler in any trade of note. These guys don't all pan out.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Yes, generally the prices get higher towards the trading deadline. One more reason it's an advantage to make the deal now, plus it gives Pomeranz more of an impact for his new club given that he gets here 2 weeks earlier than the deadline.
 

BaseballJones

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Reasons to dislike the trade:

(1) Espinoza isn't your run-of-the-mill pitching prospect. He's an elite pitching prospect with true #1 upside. Everything about him screams "dominant major league starter for years". His repertoire, his stuff, everything except his physical size, but for the elite guys, that has never been much of an issue. Very tough to give up someone who hits triple digits and has secondary stuff like he has. Even tougher to give up this guy for anyone who is not a #1 starter.

(2) Is Pomeranz really as good as he looks this year? The three years after leaving Coors, his FIPs have been 3.77, 3.62, and 3.18. Pretty solid, for sure, and a major upgrade over what the Sox have been throwing out there. But 3.77 and 3.62 are not "ace" numbers. Over the past three seasons his era has been 2.84 while his FIP has been 3.48. So there may be some luck involved there for him. His average fastball velocity this year has been just about 92, down a tick from what it looks like it was last year. He has basically been a two-pitch pitcher for his career (low 90s fastball and a big 12-6 curve).


Reasons to like this trade:

(1) Pomeranz is really good. I've looked at the numbers for an hour now, and I'm walking away happy. He spent his first three years in Colorado, then two in Oakland, and finally now in San Diego.

First 3 years (ages 22-24): 136.2 ip, 5.20 era, 4.78 fip, 1.54 whip, 7.6 k/9
Last 3 years (ages 25-27): 257.0 ip, 2.84 era, 3.48 fip, 1.12 whip, 9.1 k/9

At Coors: 80.2 ip, 4.35 era, 1.48 whip, 7.5 k/9
Elsewhere: 313 ip, 3.48 era, 1.21 whip, 8.9 k/9

Coors effect? Sure seems so. That plus him getting older and better. Adding a cutter. Being more refined in his approach and his stuff is sharper. This seems to be a classic case of a talented guy leaving a bad pitching situation and hitting the start of his peak years, and....actually improving to the point where he is a really good major league pitcher. He was a very highly regarded prospect, so this really should come as no surprise. The innings pitched numbers worry me a little in terms of his ability to throw 200+ a year. But we shall see.

Let's not forget that this season, he's been.....dominant. 2.47 era, 3.18 fip, 1.06 whip, 10.1 k/9
That's ace stuff right there.

Good article here by fangraphs on him.

(2) Pomeranz is not just a rental. He's under control for two and a half more seasons. He should do very well in arbitration this and next year, presuming he goes to arbitration. But maybe the Sox will work out a longer term deal with him.

(3) Espinoza is an elite prospect, but still...just a prospect. He's much further away than Benintendi or Moncada, both of whom could likely contribute to the major league club late this year. A million things can happen between now and then. The odds of him actually reaching his ceiling are probably not as high as something happening to him such that he never gets past "tantalizing talent that never quite became what we thought he could be" status. And really, if Pomeranz right now is the Pomeranz that will be the next few years through his prime, what are the odds that Espinoza gets to that level? Not many starting pitchers go 2.47, 1.06, 10.1 on their numbers. Espinoza HOPES to one day put up those numbers in the major leagues. Pomeranz at 27 is doing it right now.

(4) Signing Groome and the upward trend of Kopech means that the Sox have two other dynamic young starting pitchers in the system that could, long term, blunt the loss of Espinoza. And if they can get Pomeranz signed to a longer deal, that gives them two excellent lefties for many years (Price and Pomeranz), which is a very nice foundation upon which to build a rotation. And you can look forward to Groome and Kopech down the road.

(5) One other thing about Pomeranz: If they make the playoffs, suddenly they have four legit starters to throw out there in a playoff series. That's no small thing.


So long story short....at first I was against the deal, because I simply didn't want to give up Espinoza unless the Sox were getting an ace in return (thinking Sale). Pomeranz doesn't have the track record of Sale, and all other things being equal, I'd rather have Sale than Pomeranz, but a closer look at Pomeranz has me feeling very encouraged. The Red Sox are significantly better right now than they were yesterday morning. Pomeranz is a major, major addition.

Just think about what the Sox' 4-5 starters were doing, and replace the #4 numbers with Pomeranz, and this club looks totally different.

I know he's spent serious resources (money and prospects...but isn't that what resources are there for?) to do it, but DDski has added Smith (bummer about the injury, but we all believe he'll be very good ultimately), Kimbrel, and Ziegler to the bullpen, and Price and Pomeranz to the rotation. I'm happy with a rotation of Price, Pomeranz, Porcello, Wright, and Rodriguez. Now hope the bullpen guys get healthy soon and let's see what this team can do.
 

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timlinin8th

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Yes, generally the prices get higher towards the trading deadline. One more reason it's an advantage to make the deal now, plus it gives Pomeranz more of an impact for his new club given that he gets here 2 weeks earlier than the deadline.
It also gives the Sox time to make any other moves if they want - those teams that were dangling a Hellickson or Santana saw their bargaining position fall a little today, so maybe it makes a team more willing to move one of those guys for the packages that were being discussed prior.

This rotation could go from being a big questionmark to having a solid five. Price/Wright/Pomeranz/Porcello/Hellickson-Santana almost certainly gets the Sox into the postseason.
 

BigPapiLumber Co.

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I love Espinoza's potential, but I love Big Papi more than any sports player in history, and I want the Sox to win a World Series in his final season. This trade increases the chances that they will by enough that I'm ok with losing Espinoza's potential greatness. I'm happy with it.
 

Dewy4PrezII

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I hate trading prospects with huge upside but baring injuries on both sides (which are largely unpredictable-though Pomeranz's history does raise questions about his ability to remain healthy) this trade will be pretty even unless Espinoza ends up being a generational talent.
 

Zososoxfan

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Honestly, anything in the way of a clear, unequivocal rotation improvement that (a) is more than just a rental and (b) keeps Moncada and Benintendi in the organization, is about the best thing we could have hoped for. Espinoza has awesome potential but there's a long road between here and there. I'm fine with this deal.
This sums up where I'm at too. The Sox have really hit the lotto with Betts, Bradley, X, and hopefully AB, Moncada, and Devers. Getting pitching however they can to balance out the MLB club makes perfect sense. The fact that this positions the team much better for next year as well and that Espinosa is years away should get people behind this deal more.

I'm just glad they did this now. Gives the folks in Cooperstown two weeks to change Espinoza's cap from Red Sox to Padres in time for the ceremony.
[wipes brow emphatically]
 

Trlicek's Whip

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I didn't realize how many Soshers had Espinoza in their fantasy AL-only keeper leagues till I read this entire thread.

Pomeranz's big game changer this season has been adding the cutter, and he was already showing better than replacement level success as a pitcher. He's cheap and cost-controlled so he fills an immediate GFIN need as well as for the longer-view flexibility of roster building after 2016.

There could be some regression or correction now that he's pitching in the AL/AL East, but even with that he's better than our #4 and #5 solutions to date this season by a country mile. His IP this season could become an issue but I'm optimistic. He's 27 so this isn't an A-ball callup on an innings cap.
 

Yossarian

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Someone--I think on Twitter--made this point first, but it struck me so I'm going to repeat it. Even if Espinoza turns out great, he's probably hitting the big leagues--not his first All-Star game, but the big leagues--for the first time right around Xander's free agent year, assuming for the moment that Bogie doesn't re-up early. My point here isn't that we need to plan around that free agency in particular, but rather that in all the prospect love it's easy to forget that we currently have a team built around formerly great prospects who've actually panned out (and it's worth noting, went through varying degrees of development struggles before doing so). At some point, you have to accept the fact that while you never want to bankrupt the system, the future is now and it would be a shame to waste star-quality years from guys in their early to mid-20s by refusing to strengthen your team because you don't want to give up a different prospect who isn't even above low-A ball yet.

We've been waiting for the Killer B's to develop into superstars for a few years now. We don't know how long they'll last either as healthy guys or as Red Sox. And now that they've blossomed and are capable of carrying a playoff-caliber team, it seems reasonable to me to give up a prospect who at best is three more years away from even cracking the roster to help put this one over the top.
 

Jnai

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I have little to add to the "who won" discussion, but for a "thing to watch" going forward that may interest only me, I'm interested to watch Pomeranz's curveball. He's been relying on it much more this year (so much so that it's his most thrown pitch, which is very rare). He uses it very often to start ABs (also quite rare), and doubles down on this tendency when there are runners in scoring position.

It'll be interesting to see if this changes as the year goes on and he works with a new catching staff.

I can't be certain because I haven't looked at video, but data suggests that he's been progressively pitching from a more upright / less 3/4 release, which gives the curve more natural bite, and I wonder if he hasn't stumbled into something.
 

Pandemonium67

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If the Sox were not in a GFIN position, the trade would be ill advised and maybe disastrous.

But with Papi's farewell, Pedroia's renaissance, the miracle of Wright, and the emergence of the Bs, there is an incredible window here. I think many posters are deeply underestimating this year's possibilities, assuming Pomeranz pans out. Times like this don't come often. When they do, you better be ready to seize the moment.

That DD could make these moves without giving up more of the farm -- and while getting a starter who will be around for a while -- just adds to the fun. This was a fine move.

Not to mention, it spares us from the floods of pissing and moaning that would have overtaken SoSH had DD done nothing while Baltimore landed Pomeranz. For that alone I'm grateful.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Well, I did say "generally." And it's true that after letting Lester walk and with a change in Manager of Baseball Operations, they signed a pitcher to a much bigger contract than Lester got from the Cubs, never mind bigger than the offer they made to Lester in the first place.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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There is no such thing as a sure thing.

Riffed from TINSTAAPP. There is no such thing as a pitching prospect, a phrase commonly used over at Baseball Primer and other places to sum up the difficulty of a pitching prospect making a big impact in the major leagues.
 

foulkehampshire

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I'm a fan of this trade if things work out for the Sox as expected. (IE, Drew keeps pitching as he has with good health).

Its all fun and nice to have shiny cool prospects to project and dream about, yet the Sox have only been to the playoffs once in the last 6 years. That's really shitty considering how well regarded the farm system has been annually since 2004. Leveraging prospects while they have value for major league talent is a huge part of running a successful organization that seems to be lost on many here.

I'd feel much worse about the trade if it was for one of the position player prospects. Espinoza was the least painful blue-chip prospect to deal, and there's a real chance his value has peaked. Michael Bowden, anyone?
 

Plympton91

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Nine guys. Nine.

Price, Porcello, Wright, Buchholz, Kelly, Owens, Johnson, Elias, Rodriguez.

Nine guys, all of whom could be reasonably expected to be halfway decent or better.
This is where I am at as well.

The Red Sox had more qualityy pitching depth than any team in baseball going into this season. Among things we should have worried about, finding decent 4th snd 5th stsrters was about last on the list except maybe backup catcher.

The only argument I could see is that Buchholz, Kelly, and Johnson all had to be shut down through the end of last season. I guess in any one case you could say that you shouldn't have relied on a pitcher who ended the year hurt. But all 3? Really? And Johnson's troubles this year are not related to his recovery from last year's ailment. They are the freakiest of freak injuries, not even baseball or training related.

If you're looking for an inquisition into the pitching staff, the question to ask is what the hell happened to Elias and Owens? Both of them have always dominated AAA and had both ERA's and peripherals of decent 5th starters last year.

This year, they're both among tthe worst pitchers in the IL. WTF?! Ddid they try something that backfired? Are the hurt and not telling anybody? Did someone in the Red Sox organization screw them up?
 
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Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I can't speak to Elias, but Owens didn't really dominate AAA. He dominated AA, but his career numbers in AAA are 3.62 ERA in 240 IP with a K/BB rate of 1.79. His walk rate has never been all that great and in AAA he hasn't been able to improve it. He's only 23, so there's still time; it's possible this is just normal prospect progression struggles.
 

InsideTheParker

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I wonder if things have calmed down enough for me to ask a question. Do those of you who have either seen Pomeranz pitch or studied his stats have an opinion about the effect of the Wall on his success at Fenway?
 

BroodsSexton

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This is what I'm looking forward to seeing. I think buyers are about to get bent over and fleeced at the trade deadline trying to get anything resembling a decent starting pitcher. Folks are going to look back at this trade and say "How the hell did the Sox get Pomeranz for one, albeit one great, prospect." I think DD making this move a couple weeks before the deadline was brilliant.
How did he get this deal done? If I'm the Padres, aren't I waiting around for the deadline to see if I can get more than this? I mean, if this offer is on the table, what's the down side in waiting a little bit longer?
 

foulkehampshire

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I wonder if things have calmed down enough for me to ask a question. Do those of you who have either seen Pomeranz pitch or studied his stats have an opinion about the effect of the Wall on his success at Fenway?
Higher groundball splits from LHP are a good sign of future success at Fenway. Outside of his time at Coors, he's never really shown a proclivity to being HR-prone either. (Home or on the road). Obviously, you'd expect a bit of a bump given the division and league change...but I wouldn't say there are any huge warning signs. He has heavy stuff and a big part of his recent success is that now he's learned how to keep his offerings lower in the zone.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I wonder if things have calmed down enough for me to ask a question. Do those of you who have either seen Pomeranz pitch or studied his stats have an opinion about the effect of the Wall on his success at Fenway?
You can see his spray charts here.

He's a GB type of pitcher, so while the Wall will likely add a few hits to his total allowed, I'm not entirely sure it's going to be a big issue.
 

Cesar Crespo

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How did he get this deal done? If I'm the Padres, aren't I waiting around for the deadline to see if I can get more than this? I mean, if this offer is on the table, what's the down side in waiting a little bit longer?
Keith Law addressed it. Why risk it when they are already getting an amazing talent back, considering what they gave up for him, and where he was just 6 months ago?
 

KiltedFool

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Not sure how much value this brings, but Espinoza in some respects *is* Pomeranz.

Pomeranz was highly regarded the first time he was traded in 2011, by the Indians for Ubaldo Jimenez (along with 2 bodies and Alex White another fairly well regarded 1st rounder). It was the top two pitching prospects in the Tribe system and there were lots of cries that it was a terrible trade, looting the farm for the 'baldo. Jimenez had been trending up in Colorado, ERA+ going 118, 136, 161 (3rd in CY vote in 2010) the three prior years but sitting at 102 when traded. Jimenez scuffled badly (ERA+ 72, 77) for two years and finally got it together enough to put up a ERA+ of 115 in his free agent walk year. Tribe didn't pursue him.

Pomeranz was very valuable to the smaller market Tribe, but the org needed a pitcher who had already arrived rather than wait. And it was 3 years later before he put up an ERA+ above 100. Tribe couldn't wait on him. Sox may have dealt with the same issue for similar reasons. And Alex White never really amounted to much either, though if I recall he was a high end prospect supposedly closer to MLB right out of the gate.
 

Adrian's Dome

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How did he get this deal done? If I'm the Padres, aren't I waiting around for the deadline to see if I can get more than this? I mean, if this offer is on the table, what's the down side in waiting a little bit longer?
Well, there's the risk of getting caught standing with your pants down after all the other moves have transpired and the deadline has passed. Still, given that Pomeranz has 2.5 years of club control left, that wouldn't exactly be a disaster scenario for them. Sometimes it boils down to something as simple as "they saw, they liked, they pulled the trigger."
 

heavyde050

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This is where I am at as well.

The Red Sox had more qualityy pitching depth than any team in baseball going into this season. Among things we should have worried about, finding decent 4th snd 5th stsrters was about last on the list except maybe backup catcher.

The only argument I could see is that Buchholz, Kelly, and Johnson all had to be shut down through the end of last season. I guess in any one case you could say that you shouldn't have relied on a pitcher who ended the year hurt. But all 3? Really? And Johnson's troubles this year are not related to his recovery from last year's ailment. They are the freakiest of freak injuries, not even baseball or training related.

If you're looking for an inquisition into the pitching staff, the question to ask is what the hell happened to Elias and Owens? Both of them have always dominated AAA and had both ERA's and peripherals of decent 5th starters last year.

This year, they're both among tthe worst pitchers in the IL. WTF?! Ddid they try something that backfired? Are the hurt and not telling anybody? Did someone in the Red Sox organization screw them up?
This post sums it up pretty well for me also.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I mentioned this in the other thread, but our fearless GM traded 1/2 seasons David Price for 3 pitchers last year (LHP Daniel Norris, LHP Matt Boyd & LHP Jairo Labourt.) at the deadline, including the #18 prospect in all of baseball.

I think I'd rather have this deal.

DD is pretty good at his job.
 

JimD

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There are few things better as a baseball fan than watching a blue-chip prospect develop and prosper. We are truly fortunate in Boston to see Mookie, X and JBJ come up and grow into All-Stars together (even if the road was rocky at times). Better yet, both Moncada and Benintendi are showing more and more signs of being the real deal as well. You don't have to follow prospects for long to realize how few of the blue chippers truly pan out, so seeing a group like this succeed together is truly rare.

Given the system's well-publicized inability to develop a top-of-the-rotation ace over the past decade, Anderson Espinoza in some ways was the most fun prospect of all to dream on. The idea that Pedro 2.0 might be in the system (blessed by Pedro 1.0, no less!), watching him begin his ascent through the minor leagues at a precocious age - that's what it's all about, isn't it? The drought has to end at some point, doesn't it? Why can't he be The One?

So, yeah, my first reaction to the news that Espinoza was gone was an immediate sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. I'm glad I didn't get the notification on my phone until after dinner because I probably wouldn't have been very hungry had I heard this before the meal.

All that being said, though, I've largely come around on this trade. The more I read about Pomeranz, the more I like what I see. He should be a solid mid-rotation starter and he has upside, although the innings history is a concern to be sure. What I really like is keeping him from our rivals now, and the advantage of rolling into 2017 with Price, Wright, Pomeranz and Porcello anchoring the staff and lessening the need to overpay in a weak pitching market this winter.

Mostly, though, 'In Dave we trust' is where I'm at. Dombrowski's track record speaks for itself. He's been pretty savvy when it comes to letting go prospects who don't come back to bite him. Maybe there's something they saw in Espinoza that convinced Dombrowski and the Sox brass that the odds were against the youngster ever reaching the heights that so many have come to expect him to.

The Red Sox are better today and that is a good thing.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Jan 23, 2009
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How did he get this deal done? If I'm the Padres, aren't I waiting around for the deadline to see if I can get more than this? I mean, if this offer is on the table, what's the down side in waiting a little bit longer?
It could be simply a matter of Espinoza was exactly what Preller wanted and no one else had anything better to offer him so why wait?

There's also the chance that if he sits too long on the offer hoping for something better, Dombrowski moves on to another option in the meantime and the offer disappears. I can envision a scenario in which DD either trades Espinoza somewhere else or he moves another prospect or two (maybe Kopech?) and decides giving up Espinoza is now a bridge too far. Dombrowski has a rep as a no-nonsense guy. We've already seen that he moves quickly and decisively. Could be Preller figured he should strike before the iron grew ice cold.
 

TomRicardo

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Ugh, not a fan of this trade. Our organizational pitching depth isn't as deep as we thought it was and this trade relies heavily on the outbreak of Kopech and Groome. While I have high hopes for both of them I would have rather have traded Devers and thrown in a secondary prospect of lesser value. Espinoza could easily bust, but I'm worried about missing out on his potential.
This trade is exactly why you have Organizational Depth. Espinoza Future Cy Young or not represented a certain value. At the moment we have a team two years removed from the playoffs which currently composed with the best offense in baseball. We desperately need starting pitching and we got a very valuable pitcher.

Things you need to note:

1) There is a very small chance that Espinoza will ever be better than Pom is today. At best 20%
2) Espinoza being that good is about a good 5 or six years away and who knows how good the rest of team will be then,
3) We aren't trading Espinoza away for a rental. We are getting cost controlled years of an all star.

This makes sense for San Diego because they are a dumpster fire of a team with no immediate plans to get better.
 

InsideTheParker

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Jul 15, 2005
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It could be simply a matter of Espinoza was exactly what Preller wanted and no one else had anything better to offer him so why wait?
The Red Sox's offer stood out. Preller said "quite a few teams" expressed interest in Pomeranz, and a source confirmed about 10 clubs inquired about the left-hander's availability.

"He was a high-profile July 2 sign (the Red Sox paid Espinoza $1.8 million in 2014) and pretty quickly lived up to the hype," Preller said of Espinoza. "Not ultra-tall, but we do think there's some physicality there to the body. He's filled out, started to put on weight. Our scouts talked about how easy his delivery is, how easy he does things. He throw strikes. As we looked at it and evaluated prospects and pitchers in the minor leagues, he was pretty much at the top of our board over the last year or so."

On a conference call with reporters, Dave Dombrowski, Boston's president of baseball operations, said: "I'd rather trade three other type guys than Anderson, but that wasn't appealing to San Diego."
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/jul/14/padres-trade-drew-pomeranz-red-sox/
 

Drek

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Jul 21, 2005
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His average fastball velocity this year has been just about 92, down a tick from what it looks like it was last year. He has basically been a two-pitch pitcher for his career (low 90s fastball and a big 12-6 curve).
Pomeranz WAS a two pitch guy prior to this season. Now he features a cutter in addition to his four seam and curve ball. So there is something tangible backing up the improved FIP occurring even as he moves to a starting role.

His OPS the third time through lineups was, per a recent article on fangraphs, best in the league as well, so there is stability in his ability to get players out within the same game and he has had multiple strong outings against the best teams in the division (like the Giants) so familiarity hasn't bred success against him.

The sample size isn't huge on Pomeranz as an elite starting pitcher, but what evidence is there shows frames a worthwhile argument for Pomeranz just figuring it out and the Red Sox buying before his stock goes any higher. If he continued to pitch like he has for the rest of 2016 you're talking about a trade price of Anderson Espinoza + secondary pieces when considering how poor the SP market is this next winter.
 

nothumb

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It could be simply a matter of Espinoza was exactly what Preller wanted and no one else had anything better to offer him so why wait?

There's also the chance that if he sits too long on the offer hoping for something better, Dombrowski moves on to another option in the meantime and the offer disappears. I can envision a scenario in which DD either trades Espinoza somewhere else or he moves another prospect or two (maybe Kopech?) and decides giving up Espinoza is now a bridge too far. Dombrowski has a rep as a no-nonsense guy. We've already seen that he moves quickly and decisively. Could be Preller figured he should strike before the iron grew ice cold.
I would assume that the Padres were asking for AE all along and DD gradually worked up to this after exploring other options. So he could reasonably infer that AE would get it done, and let them know that he wasn't going to wait while they shopped around right up to the deadline. (Maybe the timing or particulars could differ here a bit, but you get the idea.)