Red Sox Bullpen 2015

[The Tax Man]

Looks like we don't really have a current thread about the Sox bullpen, so I've figured that I'd start one. I'm not sure if this is an indictment on the rotation or a praise of the pen but the only pitchers with an ERA+ above 100 with at least 15 innings pitched on the Sox are Koji (230 ERA+ in 15 IP), Tazawa (20 IP), Ogando (140 ERA+ in 18 1/3 IP), Breslow (116 ERA+ in 20 1/3 IP), and Wright (111 ERA+ in 22 IP).
 
They've been a godsend and so far they've performed at probably their best case scenario. Can we expect this to continue?
 
Ian York has also posted an article to sonsofsamhorn.com looking at just how incredibly valuable Tazawa has been recently:
 
http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/teams/al-east/boston-red-sox/junichi-tazawa-the-forgotten-man/

 

[Plympton91]

It's.a sad commentary on how bad the starting pitching and the offense have been that the sorry state of the bullpen doesn't get more notice. They have one reliable reliever right now--Tazawa--and a guy who can get lefties out in Layne. Everyone else down there is a disaster waiting to happen. We've got threads on Move Kelly to the Pen and Move Masterson to the Pen, but in reality they need four relievers, and with Kojis recent Ineffectiveness, maybe five before much longer.

 

[TimScribble]

Pat Light was just called up to Pawtucket. He's been dominant in Portland. If he performs well, gotta think he could get a call up.

Speier: Sources: Red Sox promoting RHP Pat Light to Pawtucket. Dominant in move to bullpen this year: 32 K, .168 BAA in 29.2 IP for Portland.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

It's.a sad commentary on how bad the starting pitching and the offense have been that the sorry state of the bullpen doesn't get more notice. They have one reliable reliever right now--Tazawa--and a guy who can get lefties out in Layne. Everyone else down there is a disaster waiting to happen. We've got threads on Move Kelly to the Pen and Move Masterson to the Pen, but in reality they need four relievers, and with Kojis recent Ineffectiveness, maybe five before much longer.

Since Willis arrived they've been league average pretty much any way you measure it. Meh. We could be so lucky with the hitting.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

It's.a sad commentary on how bad the starting pitching and the offense have been that the sorry state of the bullpen doesn't get more notice. They have one reliable reliever right now--Tazawa--and a guy who can get lefties out in Layne. Everyone else down there is a disaster waiting to happen. We've got threads on Move Kelly to the Pen and Move Masterson to the Pen, but in reality they need four relievers, and with Kojis recent Ineffectiveness, maybe five before much longer.

It's not a championship quality pen this year, that's true.

Which means it fits right in with with the not-championship-quality offense, defense, and starting pitching.

The more important question is whether the bullpen's overall ineffectiveness, along with that of the rest of the team, points to a flaw in the methodology of team-building. Or to some other systemic impairment to performance.

 

[Plympton91]

It's not a championship quality pen this year, that's true.

Which means it fits right in with with the not-championship-quality offense, defense, and starting pitching.

The more important question is whether the bullpen's overall ineffectiveness, along with that of the rest of the team, points to a flaw in the methodology of team-building. Or to some other systemic impairment to performance.

That's one way to look at it. The offense doesn't bother me as much because Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, and Castillo can all be expected to trend better, Hanley is probably still feeling his shoulder, and Napoli and Ortiz will be fine over a 140 game sample.

I just see no similar hope for the pen. Uehara is on fumes, Breslow has stalled by the side of the road, Ogando is being held together with duct tape. Barnes looks pretty at times but he's not that young and the results aren't there in the majors or upper minors. Wright isn't going to be used in high leverage. Hembree has failed to impress in multiple opportunities, Light is Hembree-lite. It's all one big yuk.

 

[metaprosthesis]

... Kojis recent Ineffectiveness...

 
 

...Uehara is on fumes...

 
What's the evidence for this?  Because he sucked on June 4th?  His K% and BB% are slightly off his career numbers, but still fine (and he's only thrown 19 innings so far).  He's blown two saves in 15 chances.  It's not like he's losing lots of games.  He certainly doesn't belong in the same conversation with guys like Breslow.  It's true that he is not the otherworldly machine that he was in 2013, but if that's what you were expecting, then the problem is your own.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

That's one way to look at it. The offense doesn't bother me as much because Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, and Castillo can all be expected to trend better, Hanley is probably still feeling his shoulder, and Napoli and Ortiz will be fine over a 140 game sample.

I just see no similar hope for the pen. Uehara is on fumes, Breslow has stalled by the side of the road, Ogando is being held together with duct tape. Barnes looks pretty at times but he's not that young and the results aren't there in the majors or upper minors. Wright isn't going to be used in high leverage. Hembree has failed to impress in multiple opportunities, Light is Hembree-lite. It's all one big yuk.

Castillo is expected to trend better?

You know who else was expected to trend better? Will Middlebrooks and Jackie Bradley were. And they had solid milb track records of success to support such expectation. As well as youth on their side.

Betts, Bogaerts, and Swihart have both those factors going for them, too, at least. So hopefully, they will trend better eventually. But Rusney was always a tools-and-scouting based gamble to slot right in as an impact player.

But back to the bullpen...it, too, should trend better. Ogando and Barnes have the stuff to get outs reliably against MLB hitters. Johnson could be called up to throw strikes from the left side in replacement of Breslow. Light could be a late-season add if his fb/split combo holds up against better hitters In AAA.

And that's the problem I'm talking about. Anyone can make a rational argument that any single aspect of this team should trend better. But until that trend happens, the team's back in the AL East cellar for the third time in four years.

Which is becoming a trend itself.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
 
 
What's the evidence for this?  Because he sucked on June 4th?  His K% and BB% are slightly off his career numbers, but still fine (and he's only thrown 19 innings so far).  He's blown two saves in 15 chances.  It's not like he's losing lots of games.  He certainly doesn't belong in the same conversation with guys like Breslow.  It's true that he is not the otherworldly machine that he was in 2013, but if that's what you were expecting, then the problem is your own.

 
2013 REALLY spoiled us on Koji, when he was basically superhuman.  
 
2015 stats:  2.37 era, 3.21 fip, 1.00 whip, 9.9 k/9
Career stats:  2.44 era, 2.72 fip, 0.85 whip, 10.6 k/9
 
So he's a little worse than his career numbers, but my goodness, what a high bar to set.  Dude is 40 years old, and it's insane to think he can be as good as he once was.
 
Put it this way:  If we had another late-inning reliever with a 2.37 era, 1.00 whip, and 9.9 k/9, we'd be perfectly happy with him.  

 

[Cesar Crespo]

How is Pat Light Embree-lite? Embree is a fb pitcher, Light is not. Light also has the better bb/9 in his career. Embree also hasn't really gotten a chance but in 20 MLB innings he does have a 20/2 k/bb ratio.

Also Jonathan Aro, Noe Ramirez etc. could possibly help.

 

[Plympton91]

Castillo is expected to trend better?

You know who else was expected to trend better? Will Middlebrooks and Jackie Bradley were. And they had solid milb track records of success to support such expectation. As well as youth on their side.

Betts, Bogaerts, and Swihart have both those factors going for them, too, at least. So hopefully, they will trend better eventually. But Rusney was always a tools-and-scouting based gamble to slot right in as an impact player.

But back to the bullpen...it, too, should trend better. Ogando and Barnes have the stuff to get outs reliably against MLB hitters. Johnson could be called up to throw strikes from the left side in replacement of Breslow. Light could be a late-season add if his fb/split combo holds up against better hitters In AAA.

And that's the problem I'm talking about. Anyone can make a rational argument that any single aspect of this team should trend better. But until that trend happens, the team's back in the AL East cellar for the third time in four years.

Which is becoming a trend itself.

 
Middlebrooks' minor league track record wasn't really all that consistent, and neither he nor Bradley ever took 24 months off from competitive baseball.  I don't think we need to draw any conclusions from Castillo's first 92 major league plate appearances, but at .276 / .315 / .391 he's certainly been substantially less obviously overmatched than Jackie Bradley at the major league level.
 
Do Ogando and Barnes have the stuff to get major league hitters out?  Maybe if you measure "stuff" by fastball velocity, but Barnes secondary pitches still seem a work in progress despite a full minor league development path, and Ogando has lost 5 mph from his former self without any apparent increase in command.  When you're throwing 99 you can miss your location, at 94 you can't.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

How is Pat Light Embree-lite? Embree is a fb pitcher, Light is not. Light also has the better bb/9 in his career. Embree also hasn't really gotten a chance but in 20 MLB innings he does have a 20/2 k/bb ratio.

Also Jonathan Aro, Noe Ramirez etc. could possibly help.

I believe DH3 was referring to Hembree and not Alan Embree

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I meant Hembree. He's a flyball pitcher. Light is not.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

 
Middlebrooks' minor league track record wasn't really all that consistent, and neither he nor Bradley ever took 24 months off from competitive baseball.  I don't think we need to draw any conclusions from Castillo's first 92 major league plate appearances, but at .276 / .315 / .391 he's certainly been substantially less obviously overmatched than Jackie Bradley at the major league level.
 
Do Ogando and Barnes have the stuff to get major league hitters out?  Maybe if you measure "stuff" by fastball velocity, but Barnes secondary pitches still seem a work in progress despite a full minor league development path, and Ogando has lost 5 mph from his former self without any apparent increase in command.  When you're throwing 99 you can miss your location, at 94 you can't.

So let me get this straight. Barnes' FIP- of 104, in 24 MLB innings pitched before he turns 25, indicates he can't get batters out; meanwhile, Castillo's 97 wRC+ in 92 MLB plate appearances before he turns 28, suggests he should trend better.

I think I got it.

 

[Plympton91]

So let me get this straight. Barnes' FIP- of 104, in 24 MLB innings pitched before he turns 25, indicates he can't get batters out; meanwhile, Castillo's 97 wRC+ in 92 MLB plate appearances before he turns 28, suggests he should trend better.
I think I got it.

Yeah, that's pretty much exactly what I'm saying. Nothing about Barnes' track record in the upper minors suggests he has anything more than an above average fastball. That ain't good enough to get major league hitters out in crunch time.

As bad as the starting rotation is, the bullpen is worse. It's just taking a while for the stats to catch up to the talent in both directions.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Pat Light was just called up to Pawtucket. He's been dominant in Portland. If he performs well, gotta think he could get a call up.
Speier: Sources: Red Sox promoting RHP Pat Light to Pawtucket. Dominant in move to bullpen this year: 32 K, .168 BAA in 29.2 IP for Portland.

Retired all 6 batters faced with 3 strikeouts. Average fastball velocity of 97.

 

[Corsi]

Sean McAdam ‏@Sean_McAdam  2m2 minutes ago
Appears as though Matt Barnes will be optioned for Shaw

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Why is Shaw up? Because of Sandoval being hurt?

 
Sandoval's playing today, so he can't be too hurt.  Napoli is sitting for the second straight day.  I think Shaw's presence has more to do with that.

 

[Plympton91]

Why is Shaw up? Because of Sandoval being hurt?

 
If I'm adding right, he's 11 for his last 25, 20 for his last 51, and 29 for his last 80 with 9 BB and 13 K.  The overall numbers are a bit misleading at this point.  He may actually be pretty productive at this point.

 

[Byrdbrain]

 
Sandoval's playing today, so he can't be too hurt.  Napoli is sitting for the second straight day.  I think Shaw's presence has more to do with that.

There has to be something wrong with Napoli, if not there is zero excuse to not pinch hit him in the 11th yesterday for Bianchi with a lefty on the mound when a homerun would have tied it.
 
 
Edit:and I just saw this is the bullpen thread, so I'll add something related.  
 
The bullpen hasn't been very good lately.

 

[Plympton91]

Once again, the completely inadequate bullpen is on display. Even if the offense had been firing on all cylinders, and they'd gotten average performances they were expecting out of the starting rotation, the bullpen would have blown game after game anyway. At least the rotation and the offense has some talent in it, this pen full of JAGs

 

[Darnell's Son]

You have to be kidding me. The strike zone is ridiculous, not to mention Napoli's error allowed the hit and run to work.

 

[Van Everyman]

Who is inadequate? Ross tonight got two outs with two on, Ogando gave up one hit. And Taz has been very good.