Red Sox heavily scouting free-agent righthander Kenta Maeda

[soxhop411]

On that front, you should perhaps consider the Red Sox to be strong candidates to sign Maeda. Here's Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:
 

The Red Sox have had multiple scouts and executives watch Hiroshima Carp righthander Kenta Maeda, including his most recent start. Maeda will be posted in November and it would be surprising if the Red Sox didn't post the $25 million fee for the chance to negotiate with Maeda, who could fill one of their five rotation slots. Maeda is considered a smaller version of Masahiro Tanaka.

 
 

Across parts of seven seasons in Japan's Central League, Maeda, 26, owns a career 2.45 ERA and a K/BB ratio of 3.72. While he lacks Tanaka's ceiling, he does, as you can see above, throw an assortment of pitches and incorporate a disruptive pause in his delivery, as so many Japanese hurlers do. He'll have suitors, particularly with the reduced posting fees now in effect.
 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24711030/report-red-sox-heavily-scouting-free-agent-to-be-kenta-maeda

 

[soxhop411]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1qO63SMI2NE

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Very tasty off speed stuff. Fastball - not sure if that was a four or two seamer - was low 90s (150 kph)

Looks very intriguing. I assume that with the new posting system the 20 or 30 million offer gets you to the dance where you can negotiate directly?

 

[Rasputin]

If he lacks Tanaka's ceiling, why do we want him? We have enough middle/back of the rotation guys. We need frontline guys.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

If he lacks Tanaka's ceiling, why do we want him? We have enough middle/back of the rotation guys. We need frontline guys.

We need a #1 and a #2 .. Who's to say this guy isn't a #2 starter? Just because he isn't a Tanaka doesn't mean he's crap? I mean .. If you could get this guy for 60/4 isn't that possibly better than forking over a similar contract for Shields?

 

[RedOctober3829]

If he lacks Tanaka's ceiling, why do we want him? We have enough middle/back of the rotation guys. We need frontline guys.

Signing Maeda doesn't preclude the Red Sox from going after the likes of Lester/Scherzer/Shields.  As we saw from this year, you can't have enough quality major league arms available.  You don't know what you're getting from Clay Buchholz going forward either.  There's lots of uncertainty in the rotation to say the least.  If they feel he's an upgrade on Buchholz, great then go get him.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

If I could get Shields for 4/$60 I'd do it at 12:01am first day. That's WAAAY low. I do think this guy in the $10-12M per range might make sense

 

[Rasputin]

We need a #1 and a #2 .. Who's to say this guy isn't a #2 starter? 

 
The guy who said he doesn't have Tanaka's ceiling.
 
 

I mean .. If you could get this guy for 60/4 isn't that possibly better than forking over a similar contract for Shields?

 
Sure, if he's as good as Shields.
 
 

Signing Maeda doesn't preclude the Red Sox from going after the likes of Lester/Scherzer/Shields.  As we saw from this year, you can't have enough quality major league arms available.  You don't know what you're getting from Clay Buchholz going forward either.  There's lots of uncertainty in the rotation to say the least.  If they feel he's an upgrade on Buchholz, great then go get him.

 
There's uncertainty in the rotation, but there are a lot of names to go through. Buchholz, Workman, RDLR, Kelly, Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, that's seven names that are candidates (or more) for the start of 2015. By the end of 2015, you're adding Owens, Escobar, Rodriguez, and Brian Johnson. 
 
That's eleven guys, not counting whatever free agents we bring in. If you bring in one guy and assume Buchholz gets a full time slot then you've got eleven guys to rotate through three slots. That's 97 starts (plus whatever time Buch and the FA miss) divided among eleven pitchers. Rounding off, that's nine starts each. Of course, they aren't all going to get that because they aren't all going to get an equal shot, some due to experience and some due to the fact that other guys got there first and were successful.
 
The point being, we have to be pretty confident that someone is going to be better than the best of this bunch to make committing to them worth it.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
The guy who said he doesn't have Tanaka's ceiling.
 
 
 
Sure, if he's as good as Shields.
 
 
 
There's uncertainty in the rotation, but there are a lot of names to go through. Buchholz, Workman, RDLR, Kelly, Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, that's seven names that are candidates (or more) for the start of 2015. By the end of 2015, you're adding Owens, Escobar, Rodriguez, and Brian Johnson. 
 
That's eleven guys, not counting whatever free agents we bring in. If you bring in one guy and assume Buchholz gets a full time slot then you've got eleven guys to rotate through three slots. That's 97 starts (plus whatever time Buch and the FA miss) divided among eleven pitchers. Rounding off, that's nine starts each. Of course, they aren't all going to get that because they aren't all going to get an equal shot, some due to experience and some due to the fact that other guys got there first and were successful.
 
The point being, we have to be pretty confident that someone is going to be better than the best of this bunch to make committing to them worth it.

Some of those names might not even be in the organization if Cherington is able to pull off a number of trade scenarios this winter.

 

[Curll]

Seriously, if the Red Sox sign Kevin Steen and KENTA in the same year, like...I'm just gonna lose it. 
 
But, that aside, the Sox have a rotational need, they've got some money to spend, and if all scouting reports are good, there's no reason not to give it a whirl. I think he's more likely to wind up with another club, as the Pirates, Royals, or Astros might want to make a splash this off-season. 
 
Doesn't look to be a make-or-break type of player, Cafardo isn't the most accurate reporter, and there's better/proven options for SP on the market. Not even sure if Kenta would fall into the "Nice to have" category at this point. Come November, when Scherzer and Lester are on the Yankees, I might change my tune.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

 
The guy who said he doesn't have Tanaka's ceiling.

 
Tanaka's ceiling (which I'd say he came pretty close to this year) is a top 5 starter in the AL. Sure he tore his UCL, but he also posted a 2.5 ERA and xFIP and a 3.0 FIP over a large enough sample size that he's probably not smoke and mirrors.  You can be a fair bit worse than that and still be a #2, I'd say.
 
He'll be 27 at the beginning of next season. That means that you're probably signing him for most of his peak and not really expecting too much of a decline by the end of the contract if you assume it's 5-6 years or so.
 
I'm more worried about his size and how he'd be expected to hold up under a MLB workload. For comparison, Allen Webster and Clay Buchholz are both listed at 2-3 inches taller than Maeda and 30-40 lbs heavier. Tanaka is also a few inches and 50 lbs heavier. Even Pedro Martinez had 20 lbs on Maeda. Particularly, Maeda's legs look like twigs to me.

 

[Rasputin]

Some of those names might not even be in the organization if Cherington is able to pull off a number of trade scenarios this winter.

 
Sure, but nobody is trading a #1 starter and that means we're looking at a third baseman, maybe a catcher, and some bench roles. I'd rather just sign a stopgap and hope Middlebrooks or Cecchini take the job.

 

[IpswichSox]

If he lacks Tanaka's ceiling, why do we want him? We have enough middle/back of the rotation guys. We need frontline guys.

 
Because he would cost nothing but cash, and we're likely trading some/several of our AAA pitchers.

 

[Jnai]

Pitched in the WBC a few years ago:
 

 

 
Pretty good depth on the curveball, although who knows how well the cameras were calibrated during the WBC.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

We need a #1 and a #2 .. Who's to say this guy isn't a #2 starter? Just because he isn't a Tanaka doesn't mean he's crap? I mean .. If you could get this guy for 60/4 isn't that possibly better than forking over a similar contract for Shields?

Baseball America had an article on him last year; it sounded like he would likely end up more as a back end rotation guy than a front end. Here's a blurb:
 

Compared to Tanaka, Maeda doesn’t throw as hard or have a devastating out pitch like Tanaka’s splitter, but he is the No. 2 pitcher in Japan and would go immediately to the majors if posted. This past season, Maeda led Japan’s Central League in ERA and ranked second in strikeouts, posting a 2.10 ERA in 175 2/3 innings with 158 strikeouts (8.1 K/9) and 40 walks (2.0 BB/9). In 2010, Maeda won the Sawamura Award, Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young.

Maeda is a slightly-built 6 feet, 160 pounds and throws around 87-93 mph with good sink and run, though he doesn’t get great angle on his fastball. He’s a good athlete, which helps him repeat his delivery and thrive when his command, which can be plus at times, is on point. Maeda doesn’t have one knockout secondary pitch, but he has a solid-average slider and mixes in a curveball and a changeup as well.

Newsday has a more recent article - http://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/david-lennon/scouting-japan-for-the-next-masahiro-tanaka-1.8366199 - that says he touches 95, but his K/9 IP ratio was around 7 this year.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

We need a #1 and a #2 .. Who's to say this guy isn't a #2 starter? Just because he isn't a Tanaka doesn't mean he's crap? I mean .. If you could get this guy for 60/4 isn't that possibly better than forking over a similar contract for Shields?

It's not either/or, but I'd take Shields in a heartbeat over him. 

 

[Sprowl]

Pitched in the WBC a few years ago:
 

 

 
Pretty good depth on the curveball, although who knows how well the cameras were calibrated during the WBC.

 
Using the grey tone for the sinker and black for the fastball is a nice combination, since it shows the gradation between them well and distinguishes them from the colors for the offspeed pitches, especially the changeup. :thumbsup:
 
It looks like there might be a splitter-changeup distinction, a la Buchholz -- the splitter is harder and shows more horizontal movement.
 
Also, if Maeda struggles to hit 92, pass.

 

[rembrat]

He looks, um, tiny.
 
EDIT: Listed at 6'0 but the 154lb is what makes him look small, I suppose.

 

[The Boomer]

 
The guy who said he doesn't have Tanaka's ceiling.
 
 
 
Sure, if he's as good as Shields.
 
 
 
There's uncertainty in the rotation, but there are a lot of names to go through. Buchholz, Workman, RDLR, Kelly, Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, that's seven names that are candidates (or more) for the start of 2015. By the end of 2015, you're adding Owens, Escobar, Rodriguez, and Brian Johnson. 
 
That's eleven guys, not counting whatever free agents we bring in. If you bring in one guy and assume Buchholz gets a full time slot then you've got eleven guys to rotate through three slots. That's 97 starts (plus whatever time Buch and the FA miss) divided among eleven pitchers. Rounding off, that's nine starts each. Of course, they aren't all going to get that because they aren't all going to get an equal shot, some due to experience and some due to the fact that other guys got there first and were successful.
 
The point being, we have to be pretty confident that someone is going to be better than the best of this bunch to make committing to them worth it.

 
I agree with this.  Those who view Nava and Holt as regulars (rather than bench players) next year are overrating productivity of this last place team.  If they need to find playing time for Betts, putting him at 2B and moving Pedroia to 3B might make some sense. Bradley and everyone else need more time to emerge.  Youth must be served!   The same is true for their pitching.  Signing more than 1 cost effective starter would only delay the development of whoever from among these 11 potential starters will emerge as rotation regulars. Free agency makes sense to overcome the last deficit or two that can elevate a team already looking to contend.  We so lack patience.  Almost every position player and pitcher promoted from the minors struggles for only months if they are lucky but, more often, for their first several seasons.  2013 was an unexpected but hard to duplicate surprise.  Allowing their youngsters to develop could easily extend past 2015 but, once they do (and not all of them will), the Sox will finally get off this boom and bust roller coaster that makes each new season an unpredictable adventure.

 

[Devizier]

He looks, um, tiny.
 
EDIT: Listed at 6'0 but the 154lb is what makes him look small, I suppose.

 
Like a righthanded Casey Fossum.

 

[foulkehampshire]

 
Like a righthanded Casey Fossum.

 
I thought Buchholz already had that association. 

 

[Pilgrim]

I think they need two starters who actually project as significantly above average to add to Buch-Kelly-RDLR

I'd be fine with adding Maeda (or, say, Brandon McCarthy) as a replacement for one of those three going outbound in a trade, but considering what the Red Sox have at their disposal, they should aim higher for the front end of the rotation.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

We need a #1 and a #2 .. Who's to say this guy isn't a #2 starter? Just because he isn't a Tanaka doesn't mean he's crap? I mean .. If you could get this guy for 60/4 isn't that possibly better than forking over a similar contract for Shields?

 
James Shields is a healthy, durable pitcher with a multiyear MLB track record of near-ace performance and, at 33 next year, presumably has at least a couple more decent years left in him. Maeda is a guy with zero MLB track record and, by the numbers, ordinary stuff. To suggest that they should command similar contracts, let alone that one should prefer Maeda at similar terms, is basically to say that the difference between age 26 and age 33 trumps everything else.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

 
 
The Red Sox have had multiple scouts and executives watch Hiroshima Carp righthander Kenta Maeda, including his most recent start. Maeda will be posted in November and it would be surprising if the Red Sox didn't post the $25 million fee for the chance to negotiate with Maeda, who could fill one of their five rotation slots. Maeda is considered a smaller version of Masahiro Tanaka.

 
Is the $25 million a speculated number on what it will take to win the Maeda sweepstakes, or is this a different situation than the Matsuzaka/Darvish/Tanaka deal where anyone who pays the Hiroshima Carp can make Maeda an offer? 
 
I'm a bit confused by the wording here.

 

[Pilgrim]

 
Is the $25 million a speculated number on what it will take to win the Maeda sweepstakes, or is this a different situation than the Matsuzaka/Darvish/Tanaka deal where anyone who pays the Hiroshima Carp can make Maeda an offer? 
 
I'm a bit confused by the wording here.

New (as of last year) posting system. Whoever pays the fee gets to negotiate with the player. Much better for the Japanese talent, and no more crazy AAV deals.

http://www.si.com/mlb/strike-zone/2013/12/17/masahiro-tanaka-japan-mlb-npb-posting

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

James Shields is a healthy, durable pitcher with a multiyear MLB track record of near-ace performance and, at 33 next year, presumably has at least a couple more decent years left in him. Maeda is a guy with zero MLB track record and, by the numbers, ordinary stuff. To suggest that they should command similar contracts, let alone that one should prefer Maeda at similar terms, is basically to say that the difference between age 26 and age 33 trumps everything else.

I wasn't suggesting any such thing. Merely that, IF the Sox viewed him as someone with #2 or #3 starter stuff then he would be a good investment. Personally I have no clue as to his talent level. He's viewed as the best pitcher in Japan for what that's worth. You don't have to hit 98 on the gun to be a fine MLB starter.

Yes Shields is still a decent pitcher .. But he's going to be very, very expensive. Do we really want to give him a 80/4 or , god forbid, a 100/5 contract to a 33 year old declining pitcher? I sure don't.

I think we re-sign Lester and trade for Hamels. Package up two or three of the AAA starters plus anybody not named Betts or Buchholz or Swihart.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

New (as of last year) posting system. Whoever pays the fee gets to negotiate with the player. Much better for the Japanese talent, and no more crazy AAV deals.

http://www.si.com/mlb/strike-zone/2013/12/17/masahiro-tanaka-japan-mlb-npb-posting

 
Yes and to be clear, that new # is a $20 million maximum (not 25).  It's possible for teams to submit bids for less than that, though I'm guessing a result of the new system will be that only players who command the full 20 will ever end up getting posted.  If multiple teams submit the full $20 million bid, they will all have the right to negotiate and try to sign the player, with only the signing team then obligated to fork it over.
 
The Sox have been scouting Maeda closely for a few years now.  I would be very surprised if they don't submit the maximum $20 mil bid.
 
Edit: and the thread title is a bit misleading, he is not a free agent.  He would become a domestic FA at the end of next season, and an unrestricted international FA at the end of the 2016 season.  If he heads to the States for next year, it will be via the posting system.

 

[Rasputin]

 
Because he would cost nothing but cash, and we're likely trading some/several of our AAA pitchers.

 
For what?
 
The only positions we have open are third base and frontline starter and if we're not going to give up the cash to sign Lester, we sure as shit aren't going to give up whatever the cost would be to trade for and sign a much younger frontline starter.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
Like a righthanded Casey Fossum.

Or a righthanded Randy Johnson! /van

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

 
For what?
 
The only positions we have open are third base and frontline starter and if we're not going to give up the cash to sign Lester, we sure as shit aren't going to give up whatever the cost would be to trade for and sign a much younger frontline starter.

Is there a rule that they can only trade for an ace? Any good #3 or better can help and won't necessarily break the bank. Things happen, guys become available. Doug Fister was given away. There will be trade possibilities none of us have thought of yet, and not just at the positions that are technically open.

 

[IpswichSox]

 
For what?
 
The only positions we have open are third base and frontline starter and if we're not going to give up the cash to sign Lester, we sure as shit aren't going to give up whatever the cost would be to trade for and sign a much younger frontline starter.

 
Perhaps you've forgotten about the Stanton thread.  
 
Regarding the rotation, if Lester comes back, that would fill an enormous hole in 2015 (putting aside the tens of millions wasted by not signing him in March). But if Theo gets Lester and Scherzer goes to the MFY or LA, everyone else will be after Shields, which may price him out for the FO in terms of years (he's already 33 next year). Then the starting rotation would be:
 
1. ?
2. ?
3. Buchholz
4. Kelly 
5. One of De La Rosa/Webster/Barnes/Workman/Wright
 
At that point we'd have no choice but to go after the likes of someone like a Cueto or even Sale, who would cost a near Stanton-like prospect haul. I just think it's highly likely that our prospect depth gets thinned dramatically this winter -- which is fine because we have a lot of prospect redundancy and needs on the major league roster.

 

[chrisfont9]

There probably aren't many pitchers the last year or so who've been more valuable per dollar than Hisashi Iwakuma, 11.6 WAR and counting in three seasons, with salaries of 1.5, 6.5 and 6.5mil. Not a #1 guy (and he's currently tanking, after a long run of consistency), and not likely a long future in the game given that he's 33 and has probably thrown a zillion pitches. But if you're looking for a business model for these Japanese veterans and why they're attractive and not yet overvalued (unlike Darvish, who is so much younger and has sexier stuff), then I think Iwakuma is probably the comp. As a business model; I'm not saying they're comparable pitchers, I'm agnostic about those details.
 
Edit: Maeda's age probably puts him somewhere between Iwakuma (completely under the radar) and Darvish (massive bidding war).

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I think we re-sign Lester and trade for Hamels. Package up two or three of the AAA starters plus anybody not named Betts or Buchholz or Swihart.

 
There is no way we are getting Hamels without Betts or Swihart in the package (perhaps would require both) unless Amaro gets deeply ill and the Red Sox are able to get a nurse to forge his signature from his hospital bed.

 

[RFDA2000]

Baseball America had an article on him last year; it sounded like he would likely end up more as a back end rotation guy than a front end. Here's a blurb:


Newsday has a more recent article - http://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/david-lennon/scouting-japan-for-the-next-masahiro-tanaka-1.8366199 - that says he touches 95, but his K/IP ratio was around 7 this year.

 
I know the stats don't always translate to the MLB, but even with a little regression that would be a hell of a thing to watch.

 

[jscola85]

There probably aren't many pitchers the last year or so who've been more valuable per dollar than Hisashi Iwakuma, 11.6 WAR and counting in three seasons, with salaries of 1.5, 6.5 and 6.5mil. Not a #1 guy (and he's currently tanking, after a long run of consistency), and not likely a long future in the game given that he's 33 and has probably thrown a zillion pitches. But if you're looking for a business model for these Japanese veterans and why they're attractive and not yet overvalued (unlike Darvish, who is so much younger and has sexier stuff), then I think Iwakuma is probably the comp. As a business model; I'm not saying they're comparable pitchers, I'm agnostic about those details.
 
Edit: Maeda's age probably puts him somewhere between Iwakuma (completely under the radar) and Darvish (massive bidding war).

 
Hiroki Kuroda is also a good comp.  He doesn't have overpowering stuff but has been remarkably effective both in the NL and AL.  He has produced 21 bWAR over 7 seasons at a total salary cost of $88M during that time period.  $4M per win for a free agent is a damn good return.

 

[DavidTai]

Given the Sox have been scouting Maeda as far back as spring ( http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/05/17/pitching-injuries-have-become-big-problem/BQwm7yd5uhwTCSicgK9VrO/story.html ), I'm willing to bet if they have made a bid, they've got a good idea what they want to pay for him.

I've seen him most compared to Koji Uehara (starter), but here are other baselines for comparision:


http://www.npbtracker.com/2014/02/maeda-through-the-lens-of-his-predecessors//#content

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
I know the stats don't always translate to the MLB, but even with a little regression that would be a hell of a thing to watch.

 
You figure it's gotta be some combination of hellacious breaking stuff, really terrible catchers, and a lot of foul territory behind the plate.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Baseball America had an article on him last year; it sounded like he would likely end up more as a back end rotation guy than a front end. Here's a blurb:


Newsday has a more recent article - http://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/david-lennon/scouting-japan-for-the-next-masahiro-tanaka-1.8366199 - that says he touches 95, but his K/IP ratio was around 7 this year.

Which is about 63 K/9, which is to say it is quite impressive.

 

[Hyde Park Factor]

Baseball America had an article on him last year; it sounded like he would likely end up more as a back end rotation guy than a front end. Here's a blurb:


Newsday has a more recent article - http://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/david-lennon/scouting-japan-for-the-next-masahiro-tanaka-1.8366199 - that says he touches 95, but his K/IP ratio was around 7 this year.

If my math is correct, that's 1400 K's if he pitches 200 innings. This is the stuff of legend.

 

[The Mort Report]

I don't get why having all these prospects in the minors makes people think the FO should not go after this guy.  Like many have said, prospects are hit or miss.  It is quite possible that every single one of them flame out.  Unlikely, but possible.  If next spring the team finds itself with 8 capable starters then great, we can stash or trade.  This is a much better problem than lacking in quality SP as we are seeing now.  Even if this guy ends up a #3 or #4 that's still a great investment (well depending on how much he ultimately costs)

 

[strek1]

So Maeda is a smaller version of Tanaka,  Castillo is a smaller version of somebody.   Can we find a "Bigger" version of anyone?   Like Stanton?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Sorry, just catching up to this and forgot the 9 before "IP".  Original post edited.