Tough, if the Sox believe in Crochet as a long-term solution (and I am begging they have an extension as part of this) that's a reasonable price. Teel is obviously a real big-time prospect but catchers are quite tough to project out. If you go back to 2019's Top Catching Prospects, your top catching prospect was at #22 and was Joey Bart. You also had Francisco Mejia, Keibert Ruiz, and Sean Murphy in the Top 50 - Murphy is the only one of those four you might feel somewhat bad about Teel turning into. He could obviously be better of course - if he's Adley this will suck. But here's the #3 catching prospect in baseball from 2011 to present
'11, '13 - Gary Sanchez
'12 - Travis d'Arnaud
'14, '16, '17 - Jorge Alfaro
'15 - Kyle Schwarber (fun fact, #1 this year was Blake Swihart)
'18, '19 - Keibert Ruiz
'20 - Sean Murphy
'21 - Luis Campusano
'22 - Francisco Alvarez
'23 - Kevin Parada
'24 - Kyle Teel
High floor for sure - I think every player but Parada and Teel (obviously) got to the majors and were contributors at some level, but none of them were really huge stars to regret losing if you traded them for something of value.
Braden Montgomery is a major unknown - obviously big ceiling to be taken first round but he hasn't taken a professional pitch yet, could be huge but there's a ton of hurdles. Meidroth or Wikelman shouldn't hold up a deal - certainly both have potential value but I feel like if Meidroth is a huge loss for the Sox something really got effed up along the way with a lot of other guys and Wikelman struggled a lot les year and might be more meant for relief work.
Ultimately, this is the cost of a guy like this. One year of Corbin Burnes for Baltimore cost Joey Ortiz (who is already a productive pro in Milwaukee, DL Hall, and the 34th pick in the draft. The Padres gave up Drew Thorpe, Samuel Zavala, Jairo Iriarte, and Steven Wilson for Cease (Who they are shopping now) - similar to Boston three of their top ten prospects with two years of control. The price for Crochet was presumably higher due to his more affordable salary and potentially higher end stuff - and that Cease was worse in Chicago in 2023 than Crochet was in 2024.
This is obviously one the Sox could look back on and cringe on badly. Teel and Montgomery are LEGIT prospects with high end abilities and Meidroth and Gonzalez both have MLB level upside and value, but pretty much any deal - signing or trade - for a guy with Crochet's upside and talent is going to be that. Now, the big question is Crochet's ability to...actually pitch innings. Before last year he never threw - in college or the pros - more than 65 innings in a year. He got to 146 last year. If he can regularly do 150 IPs he's going to be worth this. If he can't? Well, that's your big risk. That and him not re-signing or the Sox trading him next year for a smaller package if it becomes evident he won't potentially.
Excellent summary. There is a lot of range of value, but a lot of guys on that list above could be had without a 100M contract.
1) Crochet is young with elite established upside. The type or rotation piece we want to add. Still hasn't proven to compete at that level consistently and stay healthy, as are always questions. Banking on a 25 year old starter who has had TJ and shoulder issues and has thrown more than 65 innings in a year once in his career (including college), but
2) Teel was a solid Sox prospect, now he is a White Sox prospect and I wish him well. I was rooting for him to turn into a long term anchor, but didn't have a ton of certainty as a prospect. As Fishercat showed above, we don't know which of these he is really going to turn into. I also throw out our recently released Reece McGuire who was a #14 pick lefty hitting catcher who did well in the minors as a 22 and debuted in the majors as a 23. Swihart very similar.
The hit rate of these types or prospects is not super high, and Teel's near term Wins Above Wong was very uncertain, although I expect him to be a better player long term.
3) Montgomery fell into our lap in the draft, and I was excited, but definitely a position of excess in the majors, and despite some elite performance at Stanford, Cape Cod, and A&M, ability to hit major league pitching and ankle health both keep his near term value and his career value in doubt. I also wish him well. With Duran, Anthony, Abreu as young lefty hitters with more immediate value, Montgomery's maximum value was either as a trade chip or allowing another of those three to be a trade chip...not having four lefty outfielders remain in the organization.
So while we might hope this Crochet is Sale 2.0, he is two years younger but has one cool season while Sale was coming off five.
And we might hope Teel is Swihart 2.0 (or Moncada 2.0), he could be much better, and Montgomery could be a good MLB player.
But given that the number one area of improvement was to add some elite starting pitching, and the depth of position playing prospects and relative probable value of the main two we gave up, I give this deal a thumbs up. If Crochet stays healthy and is extended it can be a great trade. But given the relative uncertainties of the players involved, I give it a thumbs up.