Red Sox in season discussion

YTF

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I mean yeah, the Yankees have been scuffling since the All-Star Break. I don't think anyone realistically expected them to keep winning at a .786 clip like they were in June.

They're still a damn good ballclub, though. It feels good to take 2 out of 3 against them - especially after our best pitcher came back after a month-long absence and absolutely dominated one of the league's most potent offenses. And yeah, ultimately it's just one series. What they do this week against the Pirates and the O's will reveal if a turnaround is legit. But with Wacha back at the front of the rotation and reinforcements on the way (I'd rather see Refsnyder getting ABs over Duran - who wouldn't?), a turnaround feels more possible than it did a week ago. Improbable, sure. But not impossible.
This is why they have a chance if they can get in. They seem to play up to that competition.
I appreciate the optimism fellas, in fact I had been one of the more vocal posters here when some were questioning whether or not the team should be sellers less than a month into the season and still hold a sliver of hope. We're now inside of 50 games left to play with four teams to climb over for the final WC spot. IMO, the reinforcements need to get here ASAP, need to be healthy and need to contribute. Wacha was a nice boost last night, but Eovaldi is still worrisome with the HRs allowed. Sale is done, Hill is a ? and at this point what can we reasonably expect from Paxton? Pivetta hit a tough 3 stretch from early to mid July and while he's pitched better since then is he along with Wacha Winckowski, Crawford, a struggling Eovaldi and Hill enough to get you where you need to go? On the plus side... while the deadline acquisitions were not earth shattering Hosmer > Dalbec on both sides of the ball at 1B and I think the combination of Pham and McGuire MAY be an over all plus compared to JBJ and Vazquez. JBJ had had obvious defensive value, but his bat was too much of a liability to the point where it limited his opportunities to help the team defensively. And while Vazquez was one of the more consistent bats in the lineup for much of the season, McGuire provides better defense and with a .250ish BA, he's not a liability with the bat. The addition of Pham has also solved the issue of lead off hitter, at least for the time being. RFsnyder returning helps the overall OF mix as should the return of Kike' if he can find his stroke and Story. With each game that passes before this team can become the best/healthiest version of itself it's going to be tough to muster enough wins to climb over those other 4 teams, but as Daniel_Son said this week against Pittsburgh and Baltimore are going to be telling. As Ecks says, "Baltimore aren't lambs anymore"., but they need to find a way to take at least two there and I think a sweep vs the Pirates is almost a must while hoping the Rays, Twins and Chi Sox fall on hard times.
 

grimshaw

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Although it will be nice to have the band back together, these aren't going to be massive upgrades over what they have, so I'm still seeing a maybe 82 win team which they could pull off by playing .500 against the east and better against everyone else.

-Strahm should supplant Familia but I don't see Danish claiming a spot with Sawamura and Brasier holding their own lately.
-Hernandez is an upgrade over Duran but there is no guarantee the bat will be better based on his career numbers vs his 2021 outlier.

They shouldn't rush Story with Arroyo hitting the ball so hard right now and playing his natural position so well. If they were trotting out Yolmer, maybe they accelerate things more.

I think they'll play better because they have been able to reset the pen, the schedule is a little easier, and there is more minor league depth.
 
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dhellers

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So the Rays beat the MFYs, and I am momentarily happy. Since one always roots for whomever is playing against MFY.

And yet, from the standpoint of the Sox making the playoffs, it is far better if Tampa loses.

Am I being irrational, or given the hard slog required for the Sox to make the playoffs, is immediate gratification a reasonable mindset?
 

JM3

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So the Rays beat the MFYs, and I am momentarily happy. Since one always roots for whomever is playing against MFY.

And yet, from the standpoint of the Sox making the playoffs, it is far better if Tampa loses.

Am I being irrational, or given the hard slog required for the Sox to make the playoffs, is immediate gratification a reasonable mindset?
The correct mindset is to always be happy.

Rays win? Great, FTY

Yankees win? Great, increases WC odds.

Sports should give us happiness whenever possible.
 

sezwho

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Jul 20, 2005
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The correct mindset is to always be happy.

Rays win? Great, FTY

Yankees win? Great, increases WC odds.

Sports should give us happiness whenever possible.
Thanks for the reminder, remarkable how easy it is to lose sight of that.

Still prefer a Yankee L unless something really dramatic would advantage the Sox :)
 

soxhop411

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HakkyNH

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Not to nitpick, but a baseball is about 200 cubic centimeters. So, 16 cc would be 8% of the volume of a baseball. Or, about half a shot of booze.
 

BravesField

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Oct 27, 2021
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First was Arauz, then Feliz, and now Yolmer Sanchez! When will the madness end!?!
OMG...Your CSI instincts have figured out the MO of the chief suspect, Chaim Bloom...Any player whose name ends is Z, gets the axe. (Don't forget Vazquez).

Kike......Ronaldo......Darwinzon.....Don't answer the phone! If Cora asks you to come to his office and close the door.....Don't do it!!!!
 

Rovin Romine

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OMG...Your CSI instincts have figured out the MO of the chief suspect, Chaim Bloom...Any player whose name ends is Z, gets the axe. (Don't forget Vazquez).

Kike......Ronaldo......Darwinzon.....Don't answer the phone! If Cora asks you to come to his office and close the door.....Don't do it!!!!
Darwinzon's safe - he'd aim for the doorway and bounce off the frame.
 

Rovin Romine

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You know, in actuality, Darwinzon would have to struggle with this problem every day.
It actually wasn't as bad a problem when Vaz was there to take him by the elbow and guide him through. (https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=hernada02&t=p&year=2022 )

Compassionate, team-first guy, our Mr. Vazquez.
Any player whose name ends is Z, gets the axe. (Don't forget Vazquez).
And also yes, a Z casualty. (Although contemporary politics do not belong on this board.)

I admit I didn't see the big picture implications at first, but I think there's something here.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Quick cynical poll-
Who will be first to .750 OPS….
Verdugo?
Or…. JDM?
Verdugo: .280/.327/.399, .725 OPS
JD: .273/.344/.429, .772 OPS

In the last 51 games, Verdugo's OPS has climbed from .636 to .725.
In the last 12 games, Verdugo's OPS has climbed from .671 to .725.
OPS by month: .653, .552, .905, .626, 1.000
1st half: .678 2nd Half: .897

In the last 74 games, JD's OPS has dropped from 1.036 to .772.
OPS by Month .826, 1.070, .713, .599, .490
1st half: .849. 2nd half: .447

When you asked the question
Verdugo: .709
Martinez: .789

Verdugo was .041 away and Martinez .039 away. Now Verdugo is .025 away while JD is .022 away. JD's "lead" grew slightly. The race is on.

League average is .243/.312/.396 atm.

At the very least, I feel better about Verdugo going forward.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Darwinzon would throw his phone after the call and somehow hit his dog behind him.

Outside.

To be on-thread, Sánchez was basically just a warm body, so he's not a great loss.

At least they're a little closer to getting under the LT threshold now. Barely.
 

Rovin Romine

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The bullpen usage has been remarkably stupid in the last few games. They're a flawed team, but they're not being used maximally.

Last night is almost a metaphor for the season:

Sox look like they're down early and come roaring back into contention. But there's no commitment to that - despite having a few decent options, those are "saved" till later. . .when time has run out to actually come back.

Sure, maybe you deplete your bullpen on the 18th or the 19th by using one of your plus pitchers, and risk losing a game tomorrow. But do you tank two games in hopes of maybe winning one tomorrow? So far the strategy suggests so.

But at least JD wasn't the DH last night. Although I am not sure why Refsnyder isn't the defensive choice over Duran in the OF. Is there a rule that prevents switching the DH and the CF?
 

Humphrey

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If Refsnyder went into the outfield when xander got ejected, the 4th spot in the lineup would have been occupied by the pitcher. So, any key spot or spots in the game you'd have to pinch hit.

Different from some variations of baseball/softball where defensive positions/DH are interchangeable.
 

Max Power

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The bullpen usage has been remarkably stupid in the last few games. They're a flawed team, but they're not being used maximally.

Last night is almost a metaphor for the season:

Sox look like they're down early and come roaring back into contention. But there's no commitment to that - despite having a few decent options, those are "saved" till later. . .when time has run out to actually come back.

Sure, maybe you deplete your bullpen on the 18th or the 19th by using one of your plus pitchers, and risk losing a game tomorrow. But do you tank two games in hopes of maybe winning one tomorrow? So far the strategy suggests so.

But at least JD wasn't the DH last night. Although I am not sure why Refsnyder isn't the defensive choice over Duran in the OF. Is there a rule that prevents switching the DH and the CF?
So they should have used Whitlock in the 5th when they were down 1? Or in the 4th down 4? Brasier had been pitching better lately (1 appearance giving up runs in his last 8 coming into the game), so it's reasonable to put him second into a game that you need your bullpen to cover 5+ innings.
 

absintheofmalaise

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So they should have used Whitlock in the 5th when they were down 1? Or in the 4th down 4? Brasier had been pitching better lately (1 appearance giving up runs in his last 8 coming into the game), so it's reasonable to put him second into a game that you need your bullpen to cover 5+ innings.
This is where I'm at on using Brasier last night. Sometimes the right move doesn't work out.
 

Rovin Romine

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If Refsnyder went into the outfield when xander got ejected, the 4th spot in the lineup would have been occupied by the pitcher. So, any key spot or spots in the game you'd have to pinch hit.
during the game? Yes. If you out the DH in the field you lose the DH
That makes sense. I still perhaps not would have put Duran in CF.


So they should have used Whitlock in the 5th when they were down 1? Or in the 4th down 4? Brasier had been pitching better lately (1 appearance giving up runs in his last 8 coming into the game), so it's reasonable to put him second into a game that you need your bullpen to cover 5+ innings.
Well, we've lost two games in a row without using any top shelf relief pitchers. So the scrubbier ones are burnt out for tonight along with barnes and strahm - either the starter goes long, or we might see out better arms regardless if it's a tight game or a blowout.

It seems, as you suggest, to be going very very well. Almost optimally.
 

Max Power

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Well, we've lost two games in a row without using any top shelf relief pitchers. So the scrubbier ones are burnt out for tonight along with barnes and strahm - either the starter goes long, or we might see out better arms regardless if it's a tight game or a blowout.

It seems, as you suggest, to be going very very well. Almost optimally.
They lost 8-2 to the Pirates because of bad bullpen decisions? Which of the relief pitchers was going to hit the grand slam and three run homer to win that game?

So you're really just complaining about last night. What actual relief pitchers currently on the 2022 Red Sox staff should have been used in what game situations?
 

Rovin Romine

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They lost 8-2 to the Pirates because of bad bullpen decisions? Which of the relief pitchers was going to hit the grand slam and three run homer to win that game?

So you're really just complaining about last night. What actual relief pitchers currently on the 2022 Red Sox staff should have been used in what game situations?
No you're right. A string of crap pitchers in two losses, plus some better arms (Barnes and Strahm) when they only have 6 outs to rally is fucking brilliant.
 

JCizzle

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I just don't think the Red Sox have enough competitive options in the bullpen relative to other teams. Compared to the league, the bullpen is 26th in ERA, 14th in FIP, 24th in walk rate. Add to that they've been put in a position to pitch the 8th most innings.
 

E5 Yaz

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Prior to last night's game, Brasier had three appearances where he had gotten 1-2-3 innings. There was no reason to suspect the wheels were going to come off last night. It was an easily defensible decision given the point in the game and his recent success.

There was no guarantee that using Barnes, Strahm or even -- good gawd -- Whitlock in that spot would have kept the score at 10-9. In-game decisions have to be judged based on the information at hand at the moment, not through the lens of how they turn out. Using Brasier didn't work, but that doesn't make it the wrong move at the time.
 

soxhop411

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View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1561006955459665923

Since the trade deadline Plawecki, Bogaerts, Martinez, and Devers have been the Red Sox 4 worst hitters, going a combined .176/.239/.285, with 8% walks, 20% strikeouts, and a .201 BABIP.

Their expected stats are just .221/.276/.350, so it's been dismal contact. What can you do?
And as others have said. WTH can Cora and Bloom do when you have some of your highlight paid players playing this poorly
 

chawson

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Last night aside, one of the weirder things about this season is that it's been Ryan Brasier's best by several measures. Before last night, he had a 3.08 FIP, which is top setup guy territory. There's a point every year where he seems to me like the team's most likely DFA, but he's been either terrific or used exceptionally well.

Doubly weird to think he'll finish the year placed among the top 25 relief appearances in Red Sox history. Another fact that seems discordant with public perception: Sawamura's 3.13 career ERA is the 21st-lowest reliever ERA in Red Sox history (min. 100 IP).
 

Cesar Crespo

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Last night aside, one of the weirder things about this season is that it's been Ryan Brasier's best by several measures. Before last night, he had a 3.08 FIP, which is top setup guy territory. There's a point every year where he seems to me like the team's most likely DFA, but he's been either terrific or used exceptionally well.

Doubly weird to think he'll finish the year placed among the top 25 relief appearances in Red Sox history. Another fact that seems discordant with public perception: Sawamura's 3.13 career ERA is the 21st-lowest reliever ERA in Red Sox history (min. 100 IP).
Crazy 184 games in MR will put you in the top 25... but starters used to complete games for the longest time.

Tazawa is 12th in Total games and 5th among relief appearances. Delcarmen is 13th/6th.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The spread between Brasier’s FIP (3.42) and ERA (5.98) is the largest I have ever seen. 1.2 hr, 1.9 bb, 9.1 k are good peripherals. He’s given up a .355 babip, +20% higher than his career average. Hard to figure. (Barnes is somewhat similar, a not great 4.49 FIP but a terrible 6.17 ERA).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Crazy 184 games in MR will put you in the top 25... but starters used to complete games for the longest time.

Tazawa is 12th in Total games and 5th among relief appearances. Delcarmen is 13th/6th.
Heath Hembree must be pretty high up there too, 15-5 career record with the Sox, 251 regular season games pitched and I can barely remember any specifics of any of them.