Red Sox in season discussion

lexrageorge

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fantastic that you did this - thanks!
Well, my posts reflecting any sort of optimistic, "it's still early" tone, haven't exactly aged all that well. Past Red Sox that were equal or worse than 10-17:

1972: 10-17, 0.5 GB, 17%
1996: 8-19, 3 GB, 29%
2020: 9-18, 8 GB, 53% (CoVid season)
2022: 10-17, TBD, 40% (3rd wild card)

The 1972 team actually started a bit worse (9-17), but then at least went on a 6-2 run to close out the month of May. Their 85-70 record that season would project to 89 wins over a 162 game season. In last season's AL, 89 wins would have been 2 games out of the playoffs even with the 3rd wild card (Toronto won 91). In the NL, the 3rd wild card would have allowed the Reds (!!) to qualify, and the World Series winner won 88 games.

Had the 3rd wild card been in place in 1996, there would have been a 3-way tie with the Red Sox, White Sox, and Mariners vying for the 2 remaining wild card spots with 85 wins. Using the new tiebreaker rules for that season, with the Red Sox and Seattle qualifying by virtue of head-to-head records, and the Sox getting the #2 wild card slot thanks to a better intra-divisional record.

So, the optimistic tone here is that in both non-CoVid seasons the Red Sox started so poorly, they ended up back in the race by September, and would have qualified for the post-season under a format similar to that in place this year. I don't expect this optimistic note to age all that well either, as neither Yaz (8 home runs in September of 1972) nor Luis Tiant (11-3, 1.18 ERA in August/September) are walking through that dugout door.
 

cantor44

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They just signed Trevor Story? You can't fill every position with an all star. And signing solid players worked out pretty well in the WS years.
Oy ... why does criticism of Bloom always get rebutted by being labeled as an unrealistic reductionist? I never said every position can be filled with an all star. Did I? I certainly ain't as savvy as a lot of folks on this site, but I'm also not twelve years old.

I was responding to the fact that we have become, somehow, accustomed to a lower expectation of player acquisition under Bloom, which includes sifting through the past performance of guys on the roster for reassurance that they are "solid." Surely, that can't be an adequate standard for one of the richest teams in the league, and one with a great tradition of winning? Can it?

Bloom - for whatever reason, maybe not offering enough, or not being persuasive enough, or whatever - had a shitty off-season. Scrap heap pitchers, almost every one, and giant holes in the outfield, at first, at catcher, on the bench. No, he could not have filled all those holes with all-stars. But he could have acquired more top shelf talent than he did.

Someone remarked on the luxury tax being the reason the talent has diminished. But every team is facing the tax, and right now - so far - the Red Sox are one of the worst teams in baseball.

Something is amiss, ain't it? At what point is Bloom accountable?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Oy ... why does criticism of Bloom always get rebutted by being labeled as an unrealistic reductionist? I never said every position can be filled with an all star. Did I? I certainly ain't as savvy as a lot of folks on this site, but I'm also not twelve years old.

I was responding to the fact that we have become, somehow, accustomed to a lower expectation of player acquisition under Bloom, which includes sifting through the past performance of guys on the roster for reassurance that they are "solid." Surely, that can't be an adequate standard for one of the richest teams in the league, and one with a great tradition of winning? Can it?

Bloom - for whatever reason, maybe not offering enough, or not being persuasive enough, or whatever - had a shitty off-season. Scrap heap pitchers, almost every one, and giant holes in the outfield, at first, at catcher, on the bench. No, he could not have filled all those holes with all-stars. But he could have acquired more top shelf talent than he did.

Someone remarked on the luxury tax being the reason the talent has diminished. But every team is facing the tax, and right now - so far - the Red Sox are one of the worst teams in baseball.

Something is amiss, ain't it? At what point is Bloom accountable?
Bad years happens to all teams. Maybe he'll be accountable when he has a real off season and the farm has a chance to develop under him.

Sorry, but your argument just reads as you crying about the sox being cheap. The sox are not cheap, you just don't like the way they spend their money. We have a lower bar of player acquisition? What? Prove this. After all, it is a "fact."

Literally nothing has changed. People have always used past performances for reassurance, and a lot of the times they are right. These arguments took place under DD, BC, and TE. You are just upset they aren't signing home grown guys to massive contracts so you created a narrative.
 

Cesar Crespo

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And even if they did fire Chaim, do you think the Red Sox would then give Devers 10/300 and be in the name for every huge FA?

Did you think maybe it starts with John Henry? Can't really fire him.
 

Jimbodandy

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At what point is the guy whose team went to the most recent ALCS accountable? Cantor44 demands to know.

I'd assume that he's given more than 6 weeks by ownership.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Who cares how much the team spends; the goal is to be competitive in the short term and long term. At this point, the Sox are a lousy team and a large number of the team’s best players will be off the roster after the off-season, yet most of the teams minor league talent is unlikely to be ready to help for a few years. Bloom has a lot of work to do, and it seems like he needs to do a better job evaluating major league talent and filling out the roster. The Rays always have a good pitching staff, and they don’t spend much money on it, so it’s certainly not just about spending.
 

E5 Yaz

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At what point is the guy whose team went to the most recent ALCS accountable?
You know the answer to this:

Team makes the 2021 ALCS: Players excel, manager a genius, GM not a factor
Team has pitiful five weeks in 2022: GM's fault, players and manger not a factor
 

soxhop411

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View: https://twitter.com/byJulianMack/status/1522998552405889025

Chris Sale has had a non-baseball medical setback. Team hoped to have him back by the time he was eligible to come off 60-day IL. Now, Bloom says it’s going to be a few weeks behind. He’s expecting to throw off a mound again soon.
James Paxton has had some posterior elbow soreness.
Should clarify that Sale’s issue is NOT COVID-related.
View: https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/1522999833551900673
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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For all those who were thinking about Paxton pitching this summer, isn’t this kind of how these things usually go? A guy is ahead of schedule until he’s not. Maybe I’m just scarred by all those Gammons columns claiming that Saberhagen was feeling great and ready to join the rotation in late May.
 

jon abbey

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For all those who were thinking about Paxton pitching this summer, isn’t this kind of how these things usually go? A guy is ahead of schedule until he’s not. Maybe I’m just scarred by all those Gammons columns claiming that Saberhagen was feeling great and ready to join the rotation in late May.
Sometimes, sometimes they stay on track, once in a while they even come back early (Jamieson Taillon had ankle surgery at the end of October and was supposed to miss the first month of the season, but started the season on time).
 

dhappy42

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What is a reasonable expectation for a team like the Red Sox? Is it reasonable to expect them to be in the playoffs every year? Or to at least contend for a wild card slot every year?
 

YTF

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What is a reasonable expectation for a team like the Red Sox? Is it reasonable to expect them to be in the playoffs every year? Or to at least contend for a wild card slot every year?
I would say that varies on a yearly basis depending on current personnel, payroll, expiring contracts, minor league development, etc... For me, a reasonable expectation is for them to be in contention for a playoff spot most years.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I think this is flat out wrong. Just wrong!
While I’m pro- Whitlock as a long term starter… I think between he and Houck short term I’d rather the inverse of this.
Do not like.
It’s not a surprise that the pen has blown leads like crazy since Whitlock was moved to starter. Today is yet another example. It’s such an obvious mistake and yet they stubbornly stick to their guns about it.
 

soxhop411

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It’s not a surprise that the pen has blown leads like crazy since Whitlock was moved to starter. Today is yet another example. It’s such an obvious mistake and yet they stubbornly stick to their guns about it.
But again. This offense is putting way to much pressure on the pen, when they score like -2 runs every game.

TWO players in the lineup are hitting above .300

our pitchers could do a better job at the plate at this point
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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But again. This offense is putting way to much pressure on the pen, when they score like -2 runs every game.
Today they had a 1 run lead in the 9th. Doesn’t matter if it’s 1-0 or 9-8, there’s the opp for the bullpen to step up and once again it failed to do so. That’s the pen’s fault today. Robles needed to close it out and he didn’t. Barnes needed to hold the line in the 10th and he’s getting shelled.

Today was yet another bullpen failure, while our best bullpen guy sits in the dugout and his replacement in the bullpen got shelled the other night because the FO thinks they’re smarter than everyone else.

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to see why anyone on the management side of things should keep their positions. This is a systematic failure.
 

Cesar Crespo

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But again. This offense is putting way to much pressure on the pen, when they score like -2 runs every game.

TWO players in the lineup are hitting above .300

our pitchers could do a better job at the plate at this point
Going into today, 25 players were hitting over .300. 2 is an above average number. The White Sox had 1.
 

TheYellowDart5

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Why is Matt Barnes still being asked to get high-leverage outs? Why is Hansel Robles still being trotted out in the ninth? Why is this team seemingly so committed to plans that don't work and keep failing?

The vibe right now is someone trying to smash their head through a brick wall. I understand that they can't just flush the bullpen and start over, but it's past time to find other potential solutions. The ones present aren't working, and honestly, the potential reward isn't very high. There's a reason this is Robles' fourth franchise in the last four years, and there's a reason he was re-signed for pennies late in the offseason. Just move on already.

EDIT: Same with guys like Dalbec and JBJ ... we know what they are at this point, you have to try something — anything — different.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Today they had a 1 run lead in the 9th. Doesn’t matter if it’s 1-0 or 9-8, there’s the opp for the bullpen to step up and once again it failed to do so. That’s the pen’s fault today. Robles needed to close it out and he didn’t. Barnes needed to hold the line in the 10th and he’s getting shelled.

Today was yet another bullpen failure, while our best bullpen guy sits in the dugout and his replacement in the bullpen got shelled the other night because the FO thinks they’re smarter than everyone else.

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to see why anyone on the management side of things should keep their positions. This is a systematic failure.
I don’t disagree, but a team serious about winning doesn’t have Hansel Robles as their closer. The organization decided the future was more important than the present, that we couldn’t bear to sign a bad deal that might not be good value, and that’s the pitifully constructed team we have, with help perpetually a few years away. In Bloom we trust, right?
 

Vermonter At Large

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It’s not a surprise that the pen has blown leads like crazy since Whitlock was moved to starter. Today is yet another example. It’s such an obvious mistake and yet they stubbornly stick to their guns about it.
I don't get this argument at all. There are eight guys in the bullpen currently, and not a single one of them is pitching above replacement level. What's even the point of having a closer when you're pulling starters after five innings and your setup guys suck?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I don't get this argument at all. There are eight guys in the bullpen currently, and not a single one of them is pitching above replacement level. What's even the point of having a closer when you're pulling starters after five innings and your setup guys suck?
I think because the pen has blown 7 leads in the 8th inning or later already. Whitlock takes those innings if he’s in the pen and he doesn’t blow seven of them, that’s for damn sure.
 

Vermonter At Large

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If Bloom decided to punt this year after making the ALCS last year he should be fired immediately.
I think Bloom decided to punt before the season began, honestly. He didn't get hired to GFIN and I don't think anyone imagined that Cora could take last year's team all the way to the LCS. Aside from the Story signing (which almost certainly was orchestrated by someone else), Bloom stuck with his long-term goal of rebuilding the team from within. There simply wasn't any other evidence that they tried to improve any of the weaknesses from last year's team.
 

moondog80

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I think Bloom decided to punt before the season began, honestly. He didn't get hired to GFIN and I don't think anyone imagined that Cora could take last year's team all the way to the LCS. Aside from the Story signing (which almost certainly was orchestrated by someone else), Bloom stuck with his long-term goal of rebuilding the team from within. There simply wasn't any other evidence that they tried to improve any of the weaknesses from last year's team.
I know everything on the internet needs to be a 0 or a 10, but there's a lot of room between punting on the season and putting all of your chips in.

Punting would have been trading Xander, JDM, and Eovaldi before the season.

Going all in would have been trading Casas and Yorke for guys who are good now but soon to be FA.

They did neither. They signed one long term deal that looked to be a massive upgrade for the lineup (that it hasn't worked out so far is separate issue) and a bunch of other smaller deals. The payroll is higher than it was last year. Obviously there have been failures, but they idea that they punted before the season started is stupid. I mean, Fangraphs had them projected at 63% to make the playoffs when the season began. If that's a punt, they massively shanked it.
 
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Vermonter At Large

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I think because the pen has blown 7 leads in the 8th inning or later already. Whitlock takes those innings if he’s in the pen and he doesn’t blow seven of them, that’s for damn sure.
Well the Sox weren't using Whitlock like a traditional closer anyway. He was pitching multiple innings, pretty much every fourth day, in close games. If he were a traditional closer, someone else would have had to pick up those innings, probably less successfully. He only had one single-inning save opportunity (which he nailed) before sliding him into the rotation. He and Houck essentially switched roles. They can convert Houck to closer just as easily.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The payroll includes $30m to Sale, $9.5m to Bradley, $9.5m to Barnes, $16m to Price, and whatever they are giving Paxton to rehab ($10m guaranteed). That’s like the Rays payroll right there.
 

JCizzle

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The payroll includes $30m to Sale, $9.5m to Bradley, $9.5m to Barnes, $16m to Price, and whatever they are giving Paxton to rehab ($10m guaranteed). That’s like the Rays payroll right there.
Didn't Bloom elect to give the $9.5M's to Bradley (via trade) and Barnes, then also the Paxton money? Seems like he's not quite achieving the same level of efficiency.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Going into today, 25 players were hitting over .300. 2 is an above average number. The White Sox had 1.
How many regulars are hitting below .214? Seems like the Sox have more than their fair share.

So let's rest some of these guys or call up reserves from the minors to try to get something stated - you know, like Travis Shaw, Rob Refsnyder and Franchy Cordero!

That's quite a roster Bloom has assembled this season.
 

simplicio

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Re: Houck vs Whitlock being in the pen, someone (maybe it was Jon Abbey) posted that Whitlock last year was surprisingly mediocre on shorter than 3 days rest. Maybe as the starters stretch out a little, his role finishing off a good but short Hill/Wacha start makes less sense, and they see Houck as a guy they might be able to go to for a high leverage inning on consecutive days.

Also Whitlock seems a heck of a lot less likely to have a day where he's just incapable of finding the plate than Houck, and I value that in a starter.
 

Rovin Romine

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But again. This offense is putting way to much pressure on the pen, when they score like -2 runs every game.

TWO players in the lineup are hitting above .300

our pitchers could do a better job at the plate at this point
The better way to look at this is that the Sox expected Hernandez to continue to be an at least decent lead-off hitter.
He would be followed by the big 3 of Raffy, JD, and Xander.
Story cemented the 5 spot, and Verdugo the 6th spot.
Seven was the high-upside Dalbec (spelled by a vet).
Eight was JBJ - very much a roll-the-dice affair with Cordero, Duran, Ref-guy, and whomever to step in if he crumbled.
Nine was the catcher, and well, they were kind of stuck there.

What they got was the big 3 hitting well. And that's it.
Hernandez, Story, and Verdugo have yet to deliver on reasonable(?) expectations.
Dalbec was more of a pumpkin than they expected, and his safety net proved to be made of memory and moonbeams.
JBJ has not been great offensively, but they clearly think Franchy as a Dalbec replacement makes more sense.
And the catching has sucked - no real surprise there.
 

jon abbey

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Re: Houck vs Whitlock being in the pen, someone (maybe it was Jon Abbey) posted that Whitlock last year was surprisingly mediocre on shorter than 3 days rest. Maybe as the starters stretch out a little, his role finishing off a good but short Hill/Wacha start makes less sense, and they see Houck as a guy they might be able to go to for a high leverage inning on consecutive days.

Also Whitlock seems a heck of a lot less likely to have a day where he's just incapable of finding the plate than Houck, and I value that in a starter.
Yeah, there are guys who are fantastic out of the bullpen but they need rest in between, Whitlock not surprisingly with an entire career as a SP before last year so far has been one of those. NY's best pitcher so far this year has been Michael King (coincidentally one of the guys NY protected ahead of Whitlock) and he has only made 8 appearances so far, because he is best going 40-45 pitches on 2+ days rest or more.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I know everything on the internet needs to be a 0 or a 10, but there's a lot of room between punting on the season and putting all of your chips in.

Punting would have been trading Xander, JDM, and Eovaldi before the season.

Going all in would have been trading Casas and Yorke for guys who are good now but soon to be FA.

They did neither. They signed one long term deal that looked to be a massive upgrade for the lineup (that it hasn't worked out so far is separate issue) and a bunch of other smaller deals. The payroll is higher than it was last year. Obviously there have been failures, but they idea that they punted before the season started is stupid. I mean, Fangraphs had them projected at 63% to make the playoffs when the season began. If that's a punt, they massively shanked it.
This is exactly right. If you want to know what a team that is truly punting looks like, look at the Cincinnati Reds. They let their best hitter opt-out and walk last fall. They waived one of their more consistent starters the next day. They traded four pretty good players (Suarez, Winker, Gray, Garrett) during spring training.

The Red Sox are a team with otherwise good players that are hitting like absolute dogshit so far. When you score one run, you have no business expecting to win the game. Can't call on the pen (even a great one) to be absolutely perfect and expect to win a game. Losing 7-5 in 10, you blame the pen. Losing 3-1 in 10, you blame the offense.
 

moondog80

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This is exactly right. If you want to know what a team that is truly punting looks like, look at the Cincinnati Reds. They let their best hitter opt-out and walk last fall. They waived one of their more consistent starters the next day. They traded four pretty good players (Suarez, Winker, Gray, Garrett) during spring training.

The Red Sox are a team with otherwise good players that are hitting like absolute dogshit so far. When you score one run, you have no business expecting to win the game. Can't call on the pen (even a great one) to be absolutely perfect and expect to win a game. Losing 7-5 in 10, you blame the pen. Losing 3-1 in 10, you blame the offense.
I will say this; going into the season with the plan of JBJ and Christian Arroyo platooning in RF is definitely a step or two in the direction of "punting'". It is a balance.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I will say this; going into the season with the plan of JBJ and Christian Arroyo platooning in RF is definitely a step or two in the direction of "punting'". It is a balance.
Not if it's the only anticipated weak spot in the lineup. If Story and Kike and Verdugo and Dalbec are producing at their career levels, that RF platoon isn't much of a problem.
 

moondog80

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Not if it's the only anticipated weak spot in the lineup. If Story and Kike and Verdugo and Dalbec are producing at their career levels, that RF platoon isn't much of a problem.
But why have even one weak spot in the lineup if you don't have to, especially at a position where you can find decent offensive options? Wouldn't they have been better off with Verdugo in RF and Tommy Pham in LF?

(And it was at best the 2nd anticipated weak spot, along with catcher.)

EDIT: You might be able to convince me that they saw something in JBJ they could fix, a little anyway. But Arroyo playing so much RF, and not because of two or three guys being injured, is a tough one to swallow.
 
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Petagine in a Bottle

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Yeah, Arroyo is an ok offensive player, for a utility infielder. Even if the expected JBJ to bounce back some, they should have had someone who could take some AB’s vs top lefties, or be an insurance policy in case he was cooked. Instead, they broke camp without a backup outfielder at all. If the argument is “they expected to sign Suzuki”, well then, they should have made a better offer.

Same thing goes with Dalbec. They trusted him so little against power pitchers down the stretch that they tried to force Schwarber as a first basemen and then sat Dalbec in the postseason. So what was the plan for this year? Who knows, but they broke camp without a backup 1b.

Oh, and then the bullpen. So little faith in Barnes down the stretch that he didn’t even make the ALCS roster. Did they sign a legit closer though, nah. They signed a 35 year old journeyman lefty coming off of a career year and a last second minor league deal with Robles.

All these moves have blown up in their faces, and many kinda saw it coming.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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But why have even one weak spot in the lineup if you don't have to, especially at a position where you can find decent offensive options? Wouldn't they have been better off with Verdugo in RF and Tommy Pham in LF?
On the field, sure, but Pham has a long-running reputation of being a pretty shitty dude.
 

moondog80

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On the field, sure, but Pham has a long-running reputation of being a pretty shitty dude.
Then whoever. There's no way a backup middle infielder and a guy coming off 428 PA of OPS+ of 33 should have been the plan for a corner OF spot.