Red Sox in season discussion

Cesar Crespo

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I really think it's helpful sometime to discuss the actual outcome for the prospects that Dombrowski traded and whether his moves should be considered "misappropriating" prospect capital. Helps to note that many of the pieces acquired played significant roles in the 2018 title team, and flags do fly forever:

Currently in major leagues:
Logan Allen (Kimbrel): fungible, bottom half reliever for Cleveland
Javy Guerra (Kimbrel): bad reliever for Tampa
Manuel Margot (Kimbrel): Decent rotational OF for Tampa, but overall has been a below average bat (93 career OPS+)
Michael Kopech (Sale): Solid starter having a great start to the season.
Yuan Moncada (Sale): Meh
Mauricio Dubon (Thornburg): 4/5th OF with no bat
Santiago Espinal (Pearce): Utility infielder who is having a bit of a breakout year with the Jays, but is also 27, so unclear if there is a lot more upside.
Jalen Beeks (Eovaldi): Is a solid bullpen arm for the Rays. Is also 28.

Out of baseball after short MLB career:
Carlos Asuaje (Kimbrel)
Aaron Wilkerson (Hill)
Luis Basabe (Sale)
Ty Buttrey (Kinsler): Still playing in AAA, but at 29 is no longer a prospect
Williams Jerez (Kinsler)

Still in minors:
Wendell Rijo (Hill): Struggling at AA at the age of 26
Anderson Espinoza (Pomeranz): FYI, at 24 still hasn't pitched above AA ball.
Yeison Coca (Thornburg): Stuck in A ball at 23
Esteban Quiroz (Brewer): Is 30

Never made majors:
Jose Almonte (Ziegler)
Victor Diaz (Sale)
Josh Pennington (Thornburg)

There is also the time value to be considered. The Pomeranz trade happened in 2016. 6 years later, and Espinoza is still in AA after battling multiple injuries. If he has a breakout next year, does that make the Pomeranz trade a mistake 7 years later? Kopech looks like a true major leaguer with a potential All Star appearance in his future, but do people really want to undo the Sale trade?

Agree that Dombrowski made a huge mistake with the Sale contract and his drafts were essentially garbage.
I think Basabe is in the White Sox Org. At least he was at the start of the year. He played on 5/1, maybe he was cut since? Haven't been paying attention.

We also don't really have a clue what Kopech is. He could be a lot better than solid health permitting.
 

lexrageorge

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I think Basabe is in the White Sox Org. At least he was at the start of the year. He played on 5/1, maybe he was cut since? Haven't been paying attention.

We also don't really have a clue what Kopech is. He could be a lot better than solid health permitting.
Basabe has not recorded an official at bat or field chance. And he's got a 0.275 OPS in 26 at bats AAA at the age of 25. So probably not a prospect worth worrying about. Agree that Kopech still has a lot of potential upside.

I quibble with the characterization of Moncada as “Meh.” In his last two full seasons (excluding 2020) he was worth 9.6 fWAR combined. He’s an excellent young player.
Definitely made a mistake on that one. Still unclear that I would want to undo the Sale trade.
 

dhappy42

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I quibble with the characterization of Moncada as “Meh.” In his last two full seasons (excluding 2020) he was worth 9.6 fWAR combined. He’s an excellent young player.
Since 2017, Moncada has 13.2 WAR vs Sale’s 18.2 WAR. Kopech has 2.5 WAR. The Sale deal was a classic “win now” trade. The players’ values will even out in a year or three.
 

YTF

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I really think it's helpful sometime to discuss the actual outcome for the prospects that Dombrowski traded and whether his moves should be considered "misappropriating" prospect capital. Helps to note that many of the pieces acquired played significant roles in the 2018 title team, and flags do fly forever:

Currently in major leagues:
Logan Allen (Kimbrel): fungible, bottom half reliever for Cleveland
Javy Guerra (Kimbrel): bad reliever for Tampa
Manuel Margot (Kimbrel): Decent rotational OF for Tampa, but overall has been a below average bat (93 career OPS+)
Michael Kopech (Sale): Solid starter having a great start to the season.
Yuan Moncada (Sale): Meh. EDIT: Correction, has had a couple really good seasons for the White Sox.
Mauricio Dubon (Thornburg): 4/5th OF with no bat
Santiago Espinal (Pearce): Utility infielder who is having a bit of a breakout year with the Jays, but is also 27, so unclear if there is a lot more upside.
Jalen Beeks (Eovaldi): Is a solid bullpen arm for the Rays. Is also 28.

Out of baseball after short MLB career:
Carlos Asuaje (Kimbrel)
Aaron Wilkerson (Hill)
Luis Basabe (Sale)
Ty Buttrey (Kinsler): Still playing in AAA, but at 29 is no longer a prospect
Williams Jerez (Kinsler)

Still in minors:
Wendell Rijo (Hill): Struggling at AA at the age of 26
Anderson Espinoza (Pomeranz): FYI, at 24 still hasn't pitched above AA ball.
Yeison Coca (Thornburg): Stuck in A ball at 23
Esteban Quiroz (Brewer): Is 30

Never made majors:
Jose Almonte (Ziegler)
Victor Diaz (Sale)
Josh Pennington (Thornburg)

There is also the time value to be considered. The Pomeranz trade happened in 2016. 6 years later, and Espinoza is still in AA after battling multiple injuries. If he has a breakout next year, does that make the Pomeranz trade a mistake 7 years later? Kopech looks like a true major leaguer with a potential All Star appearance in his future, but do people really want to undo the Sale trade?

Agree that Dombrowski made a huge mistake with the Sale contract and his drafts were essentially garbage.
Thanks for this. The DD "gutted" the farm system claim pisses me off every time I see it. The very best of the system, Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Vazquez, Devers and even Swihart, had all been promoted to the big team. Most of them being called up within a year or two of each other and to his credit Dombrowski refused to move any of those young, cost controlled players while bringing in impact players that supplemented that young core to the point of winning a World series in '18.
 

jon abbey

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Thanks for this. The DD "gutted" the farm system claim pisses me off every time I see it. The very best of the system, Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Vazquez, Devers and even Swihart, had all been promoted to the big team. Most of them being called up within a year or two of each other and to his credit Dombrowski refused to move any of those young, cost controlled players while bringing in impact players that supplemented that young core to the point of winning a World series in '18.
He didn't gut the system but he absolutely didn't restock it nearly enough, that is what Chaim is still trying to fix and it takes time. I wrote about this here a lot while DD was still GM and a few times since, but when Chaim took over, the BOS Fangraphs prospect list (in which they rate every prospect they feel is deserving of rating, not a specific number) was in the low 20s, as low as any team in baseball. Now it is up to the 50s again.
 

moondog80

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Thanks for this. The DD "gutted" the farm system claim pisses me off every time I see it. The very best of the system, Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Vazquez, Devers and even Swihart, had all been promoted to the big team. Most of them being called up within a year or two of each other and to his credit Dombrowski refused to move any of those young, cost controlled players while bringing in impact players that supplemented that young core to the point of winning a World series in '18.
Yep, DD did a very good job of knowing what prospects to keep and which to let go. And he assembled a 108 win team that won a WS, I have no beef with him. But, regardless of how and why, the farm system contributions to this team since Devers -- either as cheap producers on the roster to help offset the high paying guys or as trade chips -- have been Tanner Houck and Bobby Dalbec. And I guess Chavis, who was turned into Austin Davis. It's really, really hard to win that way, with your current guys getting older and more expensive and your budget to spend in FA shrinking, even for a team that spends to the tax threshold.
 

Manramsclan

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The quality of the prospects DD gave up is obviously important. Logan Allen is a good example of something the Red Sox do not miss. He is also a good example of someone DD threw in as a sweetener to get the deal done when he didn't have to. He still had value as a prospect and could have been used in another trade to acquire another piece.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I think the point is that the organization didn’t develop or acquire cheap, productive players for a period of time and it hurt them- if you are paying market rate for most of your talent, you will struggle to have depth and will be vulnerable to injuries and aging. That the players Dombrowski traded away didn’t amount to all that much isn’t all that relevant.

I do think it’s interesting that he fired after one ok season, despite a pretty great track record. I don’t recall the details specifically, but I imagine it wasn’t so much performance related, but the team not thinking or Dan not willing to be the rebuild guy.
 

YTF

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He didn't gut the system but he absolutely didn't restock it nearly enough, that is what Chaim is still trying to fix and it takes time. I wrote about this here a lot while DD was still GM and a few times since, but when Chaim took over, the BOS Fangraphs prospect list (in which they rate every prospect they feel is deserving of rating, not a specific number) was in the low 20s, as low as any team in baseball. Now it is up to the 50s again.
I'm not arguing your point as there is no argument to make. I'm sure you can well remember the flat out false statements made here over the past couple of years insinuating that the "gutting" of the system were a result of all of the trades that DD made.
 

Manramsclan

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Right YTF. A lot of that was due to the international signing penalties which made it much harder for the Sox to keep pace with other teams acquiring talent from that important pool.

He still tossed prospects around without valuing them in proportion to the other GMs, which is not good business. Knowing the values of your own prospects to the other 29 clubs is as important as knowing which ones you value more than they do (aka those that you choose to keep).
 

moondog80

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The quality of the prospects DD gave up is obviously important. Logan Allen is a good example of something the Red Sox do not miss. He is also a good example of someone DD threw in as a sweetener to get the deal done when he didn't have to. He still had value as a prospect and could have been used in another trade to acquire another piece.

I'm not picking on you because this gets repeated by lots of people, I may have even done it myself, but how do we know this is true? Did we just collectively decide that they paid a lot for Kimbrel and that if DD tried to hold up the deal to keep Allen that the Padres would have blinked?
 

TheYellowDart5

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Yep, DD did a very good job of knowing what prospects to keep and which to let go. And he assembled a 108 win team that won a WS, I have no beef with him. But, regardless of how and why, the farm system contributions to this team since Devers -- either as cheap producers on the roster to help offset the high paying guys or as trade chips -- have been Tanner Houck and Bobby Dalbec. And I guess Chavis, who was turned into Austin Davis. It's really, really hard to win that way, with your current guys getting older and more expensive and your budget to spend in FA shrinking, even for a team that spends to the tax threshold.
If anywhere Dombrowski and company fell down, it was the draft. They're going to get nothing out of the 2016 class beyond whatever Dalbec produces going forward or if Jay Groome ever manages to stay healthy; the only other two major leaguers to date from that draft (Santiago Espinal and Shaun Anderson) were both traded, the former for Steve Pearce, the latter for Eduardo Nuñez, and given what those guys contributed in 2018, I don't think anyone takes those back. The 2017 draft is Houck and Kutter Crawford and no real likelihood of anything more (and they gave up on hard-throwing righty Alex Scherff for Hansel Robles last summer; oops). Things got way better in 2018: Casas and Duran look great, Thad Ward has upside and so do Nick Decker and Nick Northcut, maybe Durbin Feltman and Andrew Politi become useful middle relievers. It's too early I think to judge 2019 in what it'll produce, though Walter looks great and that class is well represented in top prospect lists. But you can't whiff two straight drafts like the FO did in '16 and '17 and not pay for it eventually.

ETA: Worth noting that 17 of the 51 players on FanGraphs' 2022 Red Sox prospect list are from outside the system; that's a third of the list, almost all of them acquired in the last two or three years. Dombrowski didn't leave the farm gutted, I'd say, but he didn't leave it in good shape.

The quality of the prospects DD gave up is obviously important. Logan Allen is a good example of something the Red Sox do not miss. He is also a good example of someone DD threw in as a sweetener to get the deal done when he didn't have to. He still had value as a prospect and could have been used in another trade to acquire another piece.
Yeah, DD made way too many 4-for-1–type deals, and while Kimbrel and Sale are defensible, sending three pitchers to the Mets for Addison Reed or the lamentable Tyler Thornburg trade costing three prospects plus Travis Shaw suggests there wasn't enough emphasis placed on keeping the farm system adequately stocked, or an understanding of the value of those prospects down the road as opposed to flipping them for marginal roster upgrades. Couple that with those '16 and '17 drafts, and you can understand how, by 2019, the supply of cheap roster filler ran out.
 

Rovin Romine

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We also don't really have a clue what Kopech is. He could be a lot better than solid health permitting.
Kopech had some issues. No need to go into them, and he obviously has real talent.

However, there is the issue of whether all the traded prospects would have the same value to Boston, had they stayed. Sometimes, a player is just not going to do well with Club A, but can flourish on Club B, or vice versa. So there's always a bit of a fudge factor when discussing the subsequent value of then-developing prospects. Established major leaguers have much less of one.
 

lexrageorge

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Right YTF. A lot of that was due to the international signing penalties which made it much harder for the Sox to keep pace with other teams acquiring talent from that important pool.

He still tossed prospects around without valuing them in proportion to the other GMs, which is not good business. Knowing the values of your own prospects to the other 29 clubs is as important as knowing which ones you value more than they do (aka those that you choose to keep).
Do you have evidence the Dombrowski valued the prospects differently than other GMs? Because without real evidence, the statement sounds a bit like talk radio hyperbole. What we do know is that Dombrowski got the deals done. Do the Padres trade Kimbrel, who was one of the league's premiere relievers at the time, if the Sox refuse to give up Logan Allen? Maybe not; nobody here is privy to those negotiating details.

One of the issues the Red Sox did have when DD took over was an upcoming roster logjam if he kept everyone. Logan Allen was an 8th round draft pick in 2015, and had just turned 18. Which means at some point, around the time Allen would turn 23, he would need to be added to the 40-man roster or be exposed to the rule 5 draft. Asuaje, an 11th round pick, had shown himself to be competent in AA, but was not very highly regarded. Guerra, an international free agent signing, showed some pop in Greenville at 19 but had not yet made the transition to relief pitcher. There was no way the Sox were going to keep all 3. Individually, they didn't have a ton of value, as all of them were a long way from contributing at the major league level. So you don't save a ton of capital by haggling over each one at the margin.

Dombrowski also did a one-for-one trade when he acquired Pomeranz for Espinoza. And prospect value does expire, sometimes earlier than expected. Guerra's value likely would have plummeted the following season after he failed to break 0.600 OPS in single-A. Espinoza needed TJ soon after he was traded, and has yet to throw a single pitch at the major league level as a result of trying to work his way back from it.

Dombrowski's drafts absolutely failed to restock the farm, and for that he deserves criticism.
 
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Manramsclan

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Do you have evidence the Dombrowski valued the prospects differently than other GMs? Because without real evidence, the statement sounds a bit like talk radio hyperbole. What we do know is that Sale got the deals done. Do the Padres trade Kimbrel, who was one of the league's premiere relievers at the time, if the Sox refuse to give up Logan Allen? Maybe not; nobody here is privy to those negotiating details.
There were reports during his tenure that Dombrowski did value prospects differently, and that is what I am referring to. Logan Allen was actually the prospect who he was happy to give up but that the Padres were surprised they would get in addition to the package that was already agreed to. I'll see if I can find the report.

EDIT: Again, keeping an 18 year old Logan Allen instead of getting Kimbrel would not have been good either and for that DD can be praised. He seems to choose the right guys to trade. The idea that I am getting at is that he overpaid more than once and that was the book on him according to reports.
 

Manramsclan

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I'm not picking on you because this gets repeated by lots of people, I may have even done it myself, but how do we know this is true? Did we just collectively decide that they paid a lot for Kimbrel and that if DD tried to hold up the deal to keep Allen that the Padres would have blinked?
It was reported, and my recollection is that the inference was what I suggested: That the Padres thought by asking for Logan Allen they were asking for an upgrade to an existing package but when they asked about him DD just said "You can have him too."
 

tbb345

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Wasn’t the book on Dombrowski that he was a very good talent evaluator but that he was very bad on the margins/details?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Wasn’t the book on Dombrowski that he was a very good talent evaluator but that he was very bad on the margins/details?
He struck me more as simply impatient and preferred to throw in the extra prospect, or an extra year or a few extra million to get the deal done. He was the guy willing to pay sticker price or a little bit more just to be able to drive off the lot with the car he wants rather than haggle or shop around for a better deal. So it wasn't that he mis-evaluated talent, he just wasn't the type to draw out negotiations for the marginal gain of keeping a Logan Allen in exchange for some other 18 year old lottery ticket.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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The Sox haven't won consecutive games in nearly a month (4/16 and 4/17 vs MIN).

They still have only one series win on the season.

They lead the majors in being walked off 5 times.

They are 0-6 in extra inning games.

May (2-7) is somehow going worse than April (9-13).

We're getting into "You ate the entire wheel of cheese, I'm not even mad" territory in describing their futility. This has been a complete systemic collapse.
 

tims4wins

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The Sox haven't won consecutive games in nearly a month (4/16 and 4/17 vs MIN).

They still have only one series win on the season.

They lead the majors in being walked off 5 times.

They are 0-6 in extra inning games.

May (2-7) is somehow going worse than April (9-13).

We're getting into "You ate the entire wheel of cheese, I'm not even mad" territory in describing their futility. This has been a complete systemic collapse.
You stole my line from like 2 days ago. And that line was in a direct quote of your post.
 

moondog80

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The Athletic's Jen McCaffrey on a Casas call up:

I would say mid-June is the earliest Casas would be called up. Casas had the great experience of playing in the Olympics last year, but he missed a lot of the steps top prospects make in development at the upper levels. One of the main things teams like to see before promoting a prospect is how he adjusts to the league as it adjusts to him. By this point, Worcester has played most of the teams in its league and is now cycling through them a second time over the next month or so. That means Casas will be able to see many of the same pitchers and how they attack him a second time around. Big league teams already have loads of information on how to attack prospects before they even debut so making sure the player has the tools and time to learn how to counter-adjust is what will better help set them up for success.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I’d much rather see Bello called up now over Casas. He’s dominating in the minors and deserves a chance in the bullpen.
The answer with him is the same as Casas: it's too soon barring an emergency. Bello is a starter. Makes little sense to call him up right now to pitch in the bullpen and stunt his development. The goal with him should be to get him as many innings as possible so he's a viable option for the 2023 rotation. Maybe in August or September he can come up and relieve.
 

soxhop411

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Here is another thought, If there is technology available to prevent calls like this from happening MLB should freaking use it...

An umpire could call a perfect game (zone Wise) , but make one bad call (say like the one from yesterday) that could decide the winner of a Playoff game or WS....

Do you think anyone would give a crap that the ump was "perfect" despite one bad call, if that one bad call has that big of an impact on a game (and impact a Playoff series?)

It's like in 2004, (before replay existed) in the ALCS... imagine if Joe West and his crew decided not to "confer" and reverse those calls that were clearly called wrong in real time....

Do the Sox win the ALCS (and the WS) if they stuck with those original calls?
 

Al Zarilla

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Here is another thought, If there is technology available to prevent calls like this from happening MLB should freaking use it...

An umpire could call a perfect game (zone Wise) , but make one bad call (say like the one from yesterday) that could decide the winner of a Playoff game or WS....

Do you think anyone would give a crap that the ump was "perfect" despite one bad call, if that one bad call has that big of an impact on a game (and impact a Playoff series?)

It's like in 2004, (before replay existed) in the ALCS... imagine if Joe West and his crew decided not to "confer" and reverse those calls that were clearly called wrong in real time....

Do the Sox win the ALCS (and the WS) if they stuck with those original calls?
In the YouTube of the Bellhorn Homer (off the Yankee fan in the dark coat) you can hear Dave O'Brien's call. Like people always say, he was good on radio. Most of the country heard Joe Buck. Nice try by the Yankee fan, by the way. Joe West listened to Tito, thank lucky stars.
 

Daniel_Son

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I think they've got until Memorial Day to rattle off a significant win streak. They're playing a few below-.500 teams over the next few weeks (Reds, Os, Seattle, Texas), so now's as good a time as any to string together some wins.

If not, blow it up. Sells the excess for parts, see what we've got in the minors.
 

Daniel_Son

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I’d much rather see Bello called up now over Casas. He’s dominating in the minors and deserves a chance in the bullpen.
I think we see Winckowski and Seabold before we see Bello - they both pitched shorter starts this week to make sure that "there are options available" for the big club, per Chad Tracy.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I’d much rather see Bello called up now over Casas. He’s dominating in the minors and deserves a chance in the bullpen.
I'd rather see neither, but I'd probably go with Casas.

Casas is at .243/.351/.469 for the year now, after going 0/7 with a K in his last 2 games. He's now had 176 PA at the AAA level, 134 of them this year. I'd like him to at least finish the month in AAA. He's having a good year but he's not exactly tearing the cover off the ball. There's room for improvement.

I wouldn't rule out seeing Bello in 2022 but I think it's very unlikely. But he'll finish the year in AAA and anyone in AAA is only a call away. I'd rather they continue to let him start but a few months in the pen doesn't necessarily preclude that. Of course with how bad the Red Sox have currently been, they could always give him a few starts at the end of the season. I hope he gets a chance to fail as a starter before any long term move to the pen but I'm an unabashed fan boy. I could see him being promoted to AAA soon, possibly after his next start if it's like his last 2. His next start should put him over 100 innings in AA.

I'm not sure if you are actually advocating for Brayan Bello to be called up or it's more a statement about Casas, but I'd put the odds on Bello being called up before Casas at like 0.0001%. I can't see him skipping AAA to pitch in the bullpen, especially when he's never pitched in the bullpen. They'd move him to the pen in the minors and give him a few outings. It would be a process. I think it's more likely we Brandon Walter in Boston this year. He got lit up like a Christmas tree his last time out but before that, he was dominating more than Bello is. He also has some experience pitching out of the bullpen.
 

Yo La Tengo

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it is just brutal how every single bullpen appearance is high leverage due to the lack of scoring. It creates an impossible situation, especially when the bullpen has to pitch 4+ innings every game. I've previously suggested rotating through some of the AAA pitchers as the #5 pitcher and getting Whitlock back in the bullpen. But, as the offensive stat summary above shows, any improvement is going to depend on an improved offense.

Verdugo appears to be hitting the ball much better than his production would indicate. Story is going to play. Are we ready to replace Plawecki? I'm worried any boost to production could be offset by a dip in pitching performance. I think they are going to give Kike more time. So it boils down to JBJ and Dalbec.

If they think Duran is ready, bring him up and let JBJ move to spot starts. If he's not ready, bring up Fitzgerald.

As for Fitzgerald, I wish that he was getting some time at first base (no chance with Casas getting his time in), since he seems capable of playing there. His numbers have tapered a little bit, but he's still hitting .258/.324/.516 for the month of May, and .291/.357/.641 overall. And he put up good numbers last year.

If they call up Duran, send Fitzgerald to AA for 7-10 days of work at first base and then consider whether he and Franchy can handle first base for the next month. (I'm encouraged by Franchy's 3/5 K/BB ratio thus far.) If so, call Fitzgerald up, send Dalbec down, and reassess at the end of June. At that point, Casas may or may not be ready and the Sox trajectory as buying or selling at the trade deadline will likely be obvious.
 

moondog80

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it is just brutal how every single bullpen appearance is high leverage due to the lack of scoring. It creates an impossible situation, especially when the bullpen has to pitch 4+ innings every game. I've previously suggested rotating through some of the AAA pitchers as the #5 pitcher and getting Whitlock back in the bullpen. But, as the offensive stat summary above shows, any improvement is going to depend on an improved offense.

Verdugo appears to be hitting the ball much better than his production would indicate. Story is going to play. Are we ready to replace Plawecki? I'm worried any boost to production could be offset by a dip in pitching performance. I think they are going to give Kike more time. So it boils down to JBJ and Dalbec.

If they think Duran is ready, bring him up and let JBJ move to spot starts. If he's not ready, bring up Fitzgerald.

As for Fitzgerald, I wish that he was getting some time at first base (no chance with Casas getting his time in), since he seems capable of playing there. His numbers have tapered a little bit, but he's still hitting .258/.324/.516 for the month of May, and .291/.357/.641 overall. And he put up good numbers last year.

If they call up Duran, send Fitzgerald to AA for 7-10 days of work at first base and then consider whether he and Franchy can handle first base for the next month. (I'm encouraged by Franchy's 3/5 K/BB ratio thus far.) If so, call Fitzgerald up, send Dalbec down, and reassess at the end of June. At that point, Casas may or may not be ready and the Sox trajectory as buying or selling at the trade deadline will likely be obvious.
This article mentions 1B:

Fitzgerald has not seen time at first base yet this season, but that’s expected to change in the coming weeks. Fitzgerald asked Tracy if he could start taking grounders at the position and both the manager and farm director Brian Abraham are on board with the idea. Playing time at Triple-A will be tough to come by with Triston Casas on the roster. But first base has been a black hole for the Red Sox this season, so playing there might give Fitzgerald a better chance of being promoted.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/05/ryan-fitzgerald-once-called-baby-andrew-benintendi-by-red-sox-teammates-can-taste-mlb-call-up-after-8-homers-with-woosox.html
 

grimshaw

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Wasn’t the book on Dombrowski that he was a very good talent evaluator but that he was very bad on the margins/details?
After digging around a bit, I think Dombrowski takes some unnecessary heat here since it's not all about his drafts. 7 of the Sox current top 30 prospects were international free agents signed by him per Soxprospects. Ceddane Rafaela was signed in 2017 and is taking a huge step forward showing 5 tools in high A. He signed Mata, Bello and Jimenez as well. Thaddeus Ward could have been knocking on the MLB door if he hadn't had TJ.

It's quite possible he's still here if Sale and Eovaldi hadn't gotten hurt/shit the bed in 2019. But Sale was a monumental fuck up, so what happened, happened.

Anyhow, more on point, I'm thinking of starting an updated Bloom thread but don't have time now.
 
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Daniel_Son

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May 25, 2021
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Fitzgerald asked Tracy if he could start taking grounders at the position and both the manager and farm director Brian Abraham are on board with the idea.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/05/ryan-fitzgerald-once-called-baby-andrew-benintendi-by-red-sox-teammates-can-taste-mlb-call-up-after-8-homers-with-woosox.html

Man, I love to see that. Guy takes initiative, just trying to contribute in any way he can. I know the track record for 27-year-old undrafted AAA players is abysmal... but I want him up here so badly. Maybe he's got the spark the team needs right now.
 

nvalvo

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The way the bullpen has been handled this season seems like a tell. If you told Bloom and Cora tomorrow that they need to win the next five games or they're fired, Whitlock would be closing. In reality, Bloom and Cora are focused on the future, so they're stretching Whitlock out and hoping that he and Houck are part of the rotation of the future even if it costs them games now. Part of me thinks that management saw the teams the MFY and Jays put together and decided they weren't going to turn the team's development plan upside-down to compete.

On Casas, Bloom said: "Obviously looking at how he does versus lefties, how he does versus big-league stuff is really important." Their self-scouting may be saying that Casas is not ready to hit major-league breaking balls yet, and they don't want to call him up just to look like Dalbec or Duran. Separately, putting Casas in the position of having to save a struggling team is unfair to him and probably not great for his development. They are making sure he's ready before he's called up.

And if you're going to kill Bloom, the place to start is the Barnes extension. That extension turned the entire bullpen upside-down and is taking up a lot of money that could've been spent on bringing in better arms to throw at the wall until someone showed a little reliability.

Anyway, they are 29 games in. I'm mentally prepared for the rest of this season to be a disaster, but I do think it's a little early for the extremity of opinion in this thread.
That Barnes completely imploded days after signing a very reasonable two-year extension for a guy who had just been a top-five reliever in the league for the previous few months is unfortunate, but I’m not really sure how the FO was supposed to anticipate that.
 

Cesar Crespo

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That Barnes completely imploded days after signing a very reasonable two-year extension for a guy who had just been a top-five reliever in the league for the previous few months is unfortunate, but I’m not really sure how the FO was supposed to anticipate that.
Maybe look at the 7 previous years of performance.

He's had dominating stretches before but always reverts back to Matt Barnes.
 

nvalvo

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Maybe look at the 7 previous years of performance.

He's had dominating stretches before but always reverts back to Matt Barnes.
Okay, but that's almost every reliever. Barnes was coming off a four year stretch with a 14ish K/9 and a FIP a bit over 3 pitching in extremely high leverage spots in a division full of hitters parks. Sure, there were ups and downs, but there were reasons he was closing games for a contending team.

The larger irony here is that we've spent the last decade bellyaching about how the Red Sox never produce any home-grown starting pitching. Then we have the most promising crop of SP since, I dunno, Lester/Buchholz/Bowden/Masterson, and a bunch of people are clamoring to keep the best of them in the bullpen.

To be clear, I think people are probably right that that decision cost a bunch of wins, but IMO that's a problem of bullpen depth. We had a bunch of guys (starting with Barnes) who on paper should be setting up and closing games, but who have been inconsistent or just plain bad so far this season. And of course, we've had a ton of high-leverage bullpen innings as a result of the combination of the rotation being great and the offense being terrible. If the offense were scoring five runs a game, Diekman could walk a few guys here and there without it being a federal case.

So, I think we're going to see a bunch of bullpen turnover midseason, as two or three guys from the Walter, Murphy, Mata, Bello, Ward, and Groome set get chances to help in the pen as a few of the faltering veterans get traded, DFA'd, IL'd, etc. The idea here is to find the next guy for the 2021 Garrett Whitlock role, now that we've promoted Whitlock to the role he should be in through 2028.
 

LynnRice75

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There are only 7 AL teams over 500 right now. Some consistent play and giving a few at bats to some new blood in hopes they’ll get hot, can get the Sox back into the race. Half our loses could have gone the other way with a little luck.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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After digging around a bit, I think Dombrowski takes some unnecessary heat here since it's not all about his drafts. 7 of the Sox current top 30 prospects were international free agents signed by him per Soxprospects. Ceddane Rafaela was signed in 2017 and is taking a huge step forward showing 5 tools in high A. He signed Mata, Bello and Jimenez as well. Thaddeus Ward could have been knocking on the MLB door if he hadn't had TJ.

It's quite possible he's still here if Sale and Eovaldi hadn't gotten hurt/shit the bed in 2019. But Sale was a monumental fuck up, so what happened, happened.

Anyhow, more on point, I'm thinking of starting an updated Bloom thread but don't have time now.
Thank you. Good broader context on DD’s talent acquisition and evaluation.

We seem to gloss over that it’s not just 2018, which itself was epic. DD took over an underachieving and flawed team that won 78 games in 2015, then won 3 straight AL East titles, culminating in ‘18. That’s a fantastic stretch.

2019, we disappointed, and something happened - still not sure exactly what - and ownership shitcanned DD before the end of the season. 2020 sucked (for almost all of us). And then, with a franchise DD supposedly gutted, we’re back in the ALCS. Yes, Chaim deserves credit there, but we had young studs like Mookie, X, and Devers whom DD managed not to trade away.

How many other teams would take that record? 29? 26-28?

We have impossibly high expectations here…
 
Dec 28, 2015
133
Thank you. Good broader context on DD’s talent acquisition and evaluation.

We seem to gloss over that it’s not just 2018, which itself was epic. DD took over an underachieving and flawed team that won 78 games in 2015, then won 3 straight AL East titles, culminating in ‘18. That’s a fantastic stretch.

2019, we disappointed, and something happened - still not sure exactly what - and ownership shitcanned DD before the end of the season. 2020 sucked (for almost all of us). And then, with a franchise DD supposedly gutted, we’re back in the ALCS. Yes, Chaim deserves credit there, but we had young studs like Mookie, X, and Devers whom DD managed not to trade away.

How many other teams would take that record? 29? 26-28?

We have impossibly high expectations here…
This is spot on. I was going to point out that eight of the top eleven players on Sox Prospects were signed under Dombrowski but I see that Grimshaw made essentially the same point.

Dan has quite a record: Before he came here, he won the World Series in 97 with the Marlins and assembled most of the players on the Marlins 2003 champions Then he won two pennants with the Tigers and took them to three straight ALCS appearances from 2011 to 2013.

He's going to be in the executives' wing in the Hall of Fame some day. His resume is comparable to Pat Gillick's.

Years ago, maybe 1960, I wrote a letter to the Sporting News attacking a GM of the era, Frank Lane. The editor, the venerable J G Taylor Spink, responded with a one sentence reply: "I have only one thing to say and that is that you can't argue with success."