Red Sox in season discussion
- Thread starter Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat
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So we're mad we didn't try to give up a comp pick to pay Correa $35m with an option for year 2 he would only pick up if he can't play baseball anymore or will be injured all season? Which would make it a 1-year $70m contract basically. & then he would get another option after that he'd also only opt into if something had gone horribly wrong.
The plan may certainly be to acquire players via free agency, but there is a value any given player is worth to the team & exceeding that value just because is how so many of these disastrous contracts come to fruition.
I'm not sure there are any of these deals I would be excited about matching & there's not even a guarantee that matching would be sufficient to get a deal done.
Like everyone loved Suzuki when the cost was supposed to be like 5/$60m. But at 5/$85m (plus $14.6m to his previous team), you're losing a lot of the potential surplus value if his game does translate well.
We are in a very similar position heading into this season as we were heading into last season, except with a much deeper farm & more financial flexibility to create more surplus possibilities.
The plan may certainly be to acquire players via free agency, but there is a value any given player is worth to the team & exceeding that value just because is how so many of these disastrous contracts come to fruition.
I'm not sure there are any of these deals I would be excited about matching & there's not even a guarantee that matching would be sufficient to get a deal done.
Like everyone loved Suzuki when the cost was supposed to be like 5/$60m. But at 5/$85m (plus $14.6m to his previous team), you're losing a lot of the potential surplus value if his game does translate well.
We are in a very similar position heading into this season as we were heading into last season, except with a much deeper farm & more financial flexibility to create more surplus possibilities.
Any chance Nick Gordon is available after the Correa signing? Twins have Polanco, Arraez and Urshela for 2B/3B and Royce Lewis as their future SS. LHH SS/2B with pretty good numbers in the minors but just breaking into the majors. Not sure what he would cost, the trade simulator doesn't seem to value him very highly
Christian Vazquez is @cantor44 ? 
View: https://twitter.com/byjulianmack/status/1505250478367539200?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/byjulianmack/status/1505250478367539200?s=21
Not enough wordsChristian Vazquez is @cantor44 ?
View: https://twitter.com/byjulianmack/status/1505250478367539200?s=21
Does Vazquez realize that if the Sox add someone, he or one of his teammates has to go? Which teammate(s), exactly, does he think should go?
I mean it’s one thing for a fan to speculate on this and wish for a move to be made, but saying he hopes they add someone is saying he thinks certain teammates aren’t good enough. I wonder who, specifically, he’s referring to.
I mean it’s one thing for a fan to speculate on this and wish for a move to be made, but saying he hopes they add someone is saying he thinks certain teammates aren’t good enough. I wonder who, specifically, he’s referring to.
More likely he sees that Schwarber and Renfroe are already gone and would like to replace them with comparable talent.
But nonetheless he currently has teammates who are slotted into those roles and adding someone means one of his current teammates has to go.
Or Vaz has seen our new pitchers, knows E-Rod is gone and Sale is hurt, and is thinking, “Uhhh…”
This very well may be it, but it doesnt make me feel all that great that hes expanding off what he did in Tampa Bay. Comparisons to Friedman dont really work anymore - he was already spending at this point. Chaim's big contract to date is either Kike's 2/14 or James Paxton 1/10 + option. I honestly wasnt concerned about this until the past week, but the combo of trading Renfroe and then not filling in with someone else. Going into the season with Verdugo/Kike/JBJ/Duran as the outfield is pretty brutal.
Executives (and this exceeds baseball and sports) who focus on getting surplus value on every deal often end up with no significant deals. Sometimes you have to pay market rates if you want the talent/asset. The reality is that most competitive teams participate in either the middle class or elite FA markets if not both. Chaim has sat out all three years unless something drastic happens in the next day or two. Its a high risk, high variance strategy that he is pursuing.
Thats not to say that he should spend indiscriminately, but there were plenty of mid-level options (Schwarber, Suzuki, etc.) that could have been had and provided value to both this year's team and the next core. As has been covered by others, next year's FA class is looking pretty sparse so this path could easily mean multiple years of okish/mediocre teams.
We have no starting 2B or RF, and only four pitchers on the staff who threw more than 100 innings last year. (One was the Rays #7 starter, and the other is 42 years old.) I’d say he’s onto something.
I think he probably looked at his own .659 OPS, realized he isn't in the Best Shape of His Life™, and knows the team needs at least one big bat to carry his dead weight.
I would too. But then I’m not on the team and I don’t know these guys personally.
Do you guys get my point? It isn’t that he’s wrong. It’s that when he says he wants them to add a good player that necessarily means one of his current teammates needs to go. And it’s one thing for fans to say go ahead trade away or cut or demote player A or B, but it’s another for a teammate to say that about them. And when he says they need to add some talent he’s saying that his own teammate A or B needs to go. It’s just awkward for a player to say that is all.
This guys routinely see teammates moved, sent down to the minors or cut. It's a ruthless business. Do you think Vaz doesn't know this?
He's been around a long time. He knows that players come and go as part of the business side of baseball. Plus, he's had like a week to bond with this current iteration of the team. It isn't like he's saying this in the middle of the season.
It’s spring training. There’s no current 26 man roster, so Vazquez isn’t suggesting any of his current roster mates should be gone.
Bogaerts also said something very similar the other day.
Bogaerts also said something very similar the other day.
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If you’re glad Vazquez said that you should tune into EEI or the Sports Hub. You’ll LOVE all the bitching going on there.
How in the world does hoping the team adds more talent and improves considered bitching? I don’t see why anyone would have a problem with what Vazquez said today or what Bogaerts said the other day. They didn’t say their team wasn’t good enough or that they didn’t have confidence in the players here, just that adding more talent would be cool. I guess that makes him an Eeyore to the Chaim stans?
Tough crowd here.
Tough crowd here.
I suspect your cash numbers are pretty conservative... If the franchise is worth $3.5 billion, $100 million would only be a 2.8% free cash flow yield, which would be low. I suspect it's probably cost to $350 million in FCF, just based on valuations of public companies in general. There just aren't many publicly traded sports teams, so valeting them is a little bit black box. It's not like comparing AT&T to Verizon.
If on the other hand, he and his partners have been paying themselves a 3% dividend that kept growing in pace with the total value of the franchise, then the total return is substantially higher than SPY or VOO.
Just about every player (except those on the bubble), on every team, would like to add another great player. This isn’t new or unusual and players say this at the beginning of the season and at the trade deadline in every sport.
It‘d only be a potential problem if he was calling out a specific incumbent - for example, “we need an upgrade at short.”
It‘d only be a potential problem if he was calling out a specific incumbent - for example, “we need an upgrade at short.”
So 7 years at $43M per, or 8 years $37.5M per are the baseline minimum deals for Devers? Yeah, okay.
Nolan Arenado got 8/$260 ($32.5/yr), except he’s a gold glover. Devers is a future 1B/DH.
Yes, I was intentionally being conservative to prove the point that the returns are nowhere near if Henry chucked his $300M equity into the S&P. That said, I dont think the Sox have $350M of FCF - its hard to see them having $650M+ of revenue after revenue sharing and multiples are way higher than 10x right now - I've seen more in the 20x range than the 10x range. Thats before the concept that baseball teams are almost certainly going at higher multiples than your standard software/manufacturing business because people want to own them for personal reasons as well.
My totally random guess would be ~150M-175M - that would be a low 20s multiple and a reasonable increase of free cash over the Braves.
This is from July 2021:
"Colorado Rockies star shortstop Trevor Story said he wishes he could see Xander Bogaerts play more.
“The AL/NL kind of keeps us apart, but man, he’s so underrated it’s unbelievable,” Story said before the Home Run Derby at the All-Star Game here at Coors Field on Monday. “He’s such a good player on both sides of the ball. I appreciate just the way he goes out there every day and posts every day. It feels like he’s getting an extra-base hit every day. He’s just a really productive player. And he’s good for the game.”"
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/07/trevor-story-boston-red-soxs-xander-bogaerts-is-so-underrated-its-unbelievable.html
"Colorado Rockies star shortstop Trevor Story said he wishes he could see Xander Bogaerts play more.
“The AL/NL kind of keeps us apart, but man, he’s so underrated it’s unbelievable,” Story said before the Home Run Derby at the All-Star Game here at Coors Field on Monday. “He’s such a good player on both sides of the ball. I appreciate just the way he goes out there every day and posts every day. It feels like he’s getting an extra-base hit every day. He’s just a really productive player. And he’s good for the game.”"
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/07/trevor-story-boston-red-soxs-xander-bogaerts-is-so-underrated-its-unbelievable.html
I get your point, but respectfully, it isn’t relevant. He’s wondering when his club is going to replace top level talent (ie difference makers) with same level players. They obviously have voids all over the diamond that could use upgrading. And players “say” these kind of things all the time. When Harper was jockeying for Bryant to come to Philly you don’t think his current teammates heard that? He’s not coming out and saying “X” player needs to go, just that he would like the talented outgoing players to be reshuffled with more talented players coming in. And I highly doubt anyone in a Boston uniform takes that personally.
I get you point, but IMO it's not a big deal. Guys are competitive, they want to win. This comment didn't come unsolicited and I think his answer was reasonable and without malice. Bloom himself has been on the record of looking to add players.
Because there is a subtext to these conversations and it's a religious one. If you criticize, if you're frustrated, you're a heretic. You're uninformed, unrealistic, not seeing the grand vision of our savior Chaim Bloom. Really - it's the dynamic of dogmatism (or authoritarianism), and while claiming deep thinking actually eschews nuance - it's black and white: you're with us or against us.
You need to take a big step back, you have been shitting all over yourself so badly on this board since last summer that you can seemingly no longer breathe.
Story and Conforto the only impact bats left as FAs, maybe Pham if you squint a lot.
View: https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1505327655570259972?s=20&t=E4qpcYiOT-jb9GC4yyzJ8A
View: https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1505327655570259972?s=20&t=E4qpcYiOT-jb9GC4yyzJ8A
They keep passing and soon they are trotting JBJ out there everyday and hoping he puts up a .600 ops. Hard to win with 2 outfielders, no second baseman, and no first baseman.
I hear you and I’m fully on the impatient side of the spectrum here but Soler only made sense if really cheap. Seems pretty clear that Chaim is pretty much punting on FA. Definitely wasn’t expecting this but I guess we’ll see what trades, if any, he makes.
Hopefully because he’s not starting and is used as a late inning defensive replacement.
In 497 career AB, Dalbec has 33 homers and a 112 ops+. And his fielding improved late in the season. He’s not an all star, but he will do at 1b.
Signing Conforto to a 2- or 3-year deal for around $15m per type deal is better than not doing that at this point. On the down side he’s not a great fit for our park, he’s a below average/passable defensive right fielder and we don’t need any more lefties who struggle with lefties. But he’s got a great walk rate and solid exit velocities when healthy, and is a good bet to rebound after battling covid and a bad hamstring injury last year.
In my mind he’s a similar player to Austin Meadows. He was also shifted on in two-thirds of his PAs last year, so his numbers would likely improve down the road. Adding Conforto and Story would really shift things.
In my mind he’s a similar player to Austin Meadows. He was also shifted on in two-thirds of his PAs last year, so his numbers would likely improve down the road. Adding Conforto and Story would really shift things.
As of now, their depth chart:
C - Vazquez
1b - Dalbec
2b - Arroyo
3b - Devers
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Verdugo
CF - Hernandez
RF - Bradley
DH - Martinez
C - Plawecki
IF - Arauz
OF - Duran
Catching is weak. 1b is fine. Not ideal, but fine. 2b is fine - Arroyo had a 102 ops+ last year. He's adequate. 3b is great (offensively, at least). SS is great. LF is fine. CF is perfectly fine. RF is very weak offensively but great defensively (in this configuration, the OF defense is excellent). DH is really good. Depth is a problem.
This lineup would still likely score a fair number of runs:
CF Hernandez
LF Verdugo
DH Martinez
3b Devers
SS Bogaerts
1b Dalbec
2b Arroyo
C Vazquez
RF Bradley
1-5 is very strong. 6-7 are ok. 8-9 are very weak. But on the whole, it's ok. I'd like better. But it's ok.
C - Vazquez
1b - Dalbec
2b - Arroyo
3b - Devers
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Verdugo
CF - Hernandez
RF - Bradley
DH - Martinez
C - Plawecki
IF - Arauz
OF - Duran
Catching is weak. 1b is fine. Not ideal, but fine. 2b is fine - Arroyo had a 102 ops+ last year. He's adequate. 3b is great (offensively, at least). SS is great. LF is fine. CF is perfectly fine. RF is very weak offensively but great defensively (in this configuration, the OF defense is excellent). DH is really good. Depth is a problem.
This lineup would still likely score a fair number of runs:
CF Hernandez
LF Verdugo
DH Martinez
3b Devers
SS Bogaerts
1b Dalbec
2b Arroyo
C Vazquez
RF Bradley
1-5 is very strong. 6-7 are ok. 8-9 are very weak. But on the whole, it's ok. I'd like better. But it's ok.
I agree with BaseballJones in that first base isn't a huge concern ATM, agree wuth your concerns for the OF and 2B. As currently constructed JBJ is either playing every day or JDM is going to see considerable time in LF and that concerns me. I don't see JBJ as a regular in the lineup and if you plunk Martinez out there on a semi regular basis, who's your becomes your DH? Either way your a bat short in the starting lineup and your best bat off the bench looks to be the backup catcher. There is also a very real need for a middle infielder.