Red Sox in season discussion

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Now do the pitching staff…
Ok.

Starters:
Eovaldi
Pivetta
Hill
Houck
Wacha

Relievers:
Whitlock
Barnes
Brasier
Sawamura
Taylor
And then who knows among Hernandez, Robles, Davis, Diekman, and Strahm

Eovaldi is good. Pivetta is ok. Hill is ancient but is still pretty good. Last year with two teams he threw 158.2 innings, with a 3.86 era, 1.21 whip, and 8.5 k/9. I'm fairly optimistic about Houck. Zero faith in Wacha. But they have some depth and intriguing arms in the minors, and midway through the season should add Sale and Paxton, both of whom should help, even if they're not ace-level.

The bullpen has a million legit MLB arms. None are elite except maybe Whitlock. But they have tremendous depth and versatility and in that group, they probably can find a group that is effective. Still, pitching is not a strength for this team as currently constituted.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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It all depends on what version of JBJ we get. Last year was a weird year for him, if he returns to the player he was in Boston, he will be fine. If he plays like he did in Milwaukee, he won’t last the summer.

I don’t think Duran makes the roster as a backup OF, there’s no just way for a LH reserve to get at bats with Verdugo and Bradley starting. Pham is too good of a fit to not sign him. Otherwise, what are we looking at, Cordero? Refsnyder?

Yolmer could be a better fit than Arauz. Seems like Shaw has a chance too, they need someone else who can play 1b.
 

snowmanny

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As of now, their depth chart:

C - Vazquez
1b - Dalbec
2b - Arroyo
3b - Devers
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Verdugo
CF - Hernandez
RF - Bradley
DH - Martinez
C - Plawecki
IF - Arauz
OF - Duran

Catching is weak. 1b is fine. Not ideal, but fine. 2b is fine - Arroyo had a 102 ops+ last year. He's adequate. 3b is great (offensively, at least). SS is great. LF is fine. CF is perfectly fine. RF is very weak offensively but great defensively (in this configuration, the OF defense is excellent). DH is really good. Depth is a problem.

This lineup would still likely score a fair number of runs:

CF Hernandez
LF Verdugo
DH Martinez
3b Devers
SS Bogaerts
1b Dalbec
2b Arroyo
C Vazquez
RF Bradley

1-5 is very strong. 6-7 are ok. 8-9 are very weak. But on the whole, it's ok. I'd like better. But it's ok.
I am expecting Casas to get the plurality of play at first this year.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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I am expecting Casas to get the plurality of play at first this year.
We shall see. If so, it means that either Dalbec is terrible or Casas is a monster. Because if Dabec hits to his career numbers and Casas still gets most of the playing time, that means that Casas is crushing it.
 

Niastri

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JBJ will have more lineup protection and a more hitter friendly stadium here. He’s not going to hit .188
Ok. .215? His career average is .230 and his career OPS+ is 87. For him to have an average offensive year, he would have to have a very long hot streak or something else out of the ordinary. Most guys that fall of a cliff at 31 don't bounce back at 32.

He could be valuable as a fourth or fifth outfielder only starting against handpicked opposition.

As a full time starter he's very likely an albatross on the lineup.
 
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snowmanny

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We shall see. If so, it means that either Dalbec is terrible or Casas is a monster. Because if Dabec hits to his career numbers and Casas still gets most of the playing time, that means that Casas is crushing it.
Dalbec has a 218/297/466 slash line against RHP. He doesn't have to be "terrible" to end up being benched against RHP, he just needs to be Dalbec.
Cases doesn't need to be a "monster" or "crush it" to earn at-bats, especially against RHP, he just needs to be better than Dalbec.

Cora gave Dalbec twelve plate appearances in eleven post-season games. By the end of the year it really didn't seem that Cora or the front office had much confidence in Dalbec.
 

JM3

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I guess my question is, is it the same people who were unhappy they let JBB go last off season who are the ones who are complaining about the possibility that he might be our starter this year?

But yeah, he should never be a top 3 outfielder for us & if he is even the season starts, something has gone wrong imo.
 

curly2

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I guess my question is, is it the same people who were unhappy they let JBB go last off season who are the ones who are complaining about the possibility that he might be our starter this year?
When a guy who's (barely) on the wrong side of 30 absolutely falls off a cliff and posts an OPS+ of 34, it's reasonable to change your opinion.

I've always been a JBJ fan, but in 2022, I would much prefer him as a fourth outfielder or a platoon partner with Arroyo -- with Hernandez moving accordingly.
 
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Petagine in a Bottle

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I am not saying JBJ is definitely going to bounce back but there are at least some reasons to think that last year was an anomaly and not a sign of things to come - he was in a completely new and unfamiliar situation, and all the covid stuff too….I think there is reason to believe that being back where he feels comfortable and has a good support system, etc could lead to him playing like he did in 2020 and before that. He’s obviously had some terrible years, but he’s only 31. He should be able to bounce back. He’s never going to hit for a high average but I don’t expect him to hit .226 on balls in play again, esp when his exit velocity and hard hit % we’re better than in ‘20.

That being said, they should at least have a platoon mate for him and if he does falter, hopefully Duran is ready to take his role.
 

YTF

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While I'd love a real upgrade like a healthy Story, I'm generally fine with Arroyo at 2nd. The only glaring hole that I see in the lineup is in the OF. I love JBJ, but at best he's a 4th outfielder.
I'm fine with Arroyo as well, but would feel comfortable with another MF/utility type as insurance or bench piece who can give some quality ABs.
 

jmanny24

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If Story does sign and plays second, what are the thoughts on Arroyo as on OF platoon guy with JBJ. He said earlier he'd be willing to do anything, including play the OF
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I'm fine with Arroyo as well, but would feel comfortable with another MF/utility type as insurance or bench piece who can give some quality ABs.
Yeah, it would have been really nice to have signed a Villar or Brad Miller. Arroyo is good but you almost have to expect him to miss time, and the fewer at bats to Arauz or Yolmer, the better.
 

moondog80

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Signing Conforto to a 2- or 3-year deal for around $15m per type deal is better than not doing that at this point. On the down side he’s not a great fit for our park, he’s a below average/passable defensive right fielder and we don’t need any more lefties who struggle with lefties. But he’s got a great walk rate and solid exit velocities when healthy, and is a good bet to rebound after battling covid and a bad hamstring injury last year.

In my mind he’s a similar player to Austin Meadows. He was also shifted on in two-thirds of his PAs last year, so his numbers would likely improve down the road. Adding Conforto and Story would really shift things.
I'd be shocked if they signed Conforto. For one thing they need a righty, but he has the QO attached to him so I don't see them giving up draft capital to sign a no glove, non-elite bat to a short term deal. I think we are looking at Tommy Pham, who might have a somewhat robust market given his status as one the few MLB caliber hitters left. WTF.
 

JM3

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Let's have a moritorium on war metaphors for sport.
Waratorium

When a guy who's (barely) on the wrong side of 30 absolutely falls off a cliff and posts an OPS+ of 34, it's reasonable to change your opinion.

I've always been a JBJ fan, but in 2022, I would much prefer him as a fourth outfielder or a platoon partner with Arroyo -- with Hernandez moving accordingly.
My point is that maybe we should trust the guy who signed Renfroe instead of JBB for far less $, & then picked up system depth to swap back after his horse overachieved last year & the other one underachieved.

But I definitely agree I don't want him as a default every day player when the season begins.
 

E5 Yaz

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Et tu, Bogey?

“You see what everyone’s seeing,” Bogaerts said. “We lost a couple of big guys. Any time you can add impact players, it will benefit the team and make the team a better team.
“We’ll see what happens in these weeks. Obviously, the names are falling off the board.”
 

GB5

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I am curious if the end of the season lack of trust Carries over in to the season regarding Dalbec. I don’t recall him falling apart at the end of the season, maybe just the last season or two, and then he starts the playoffs against a top notch righty in Cole and then he seemed to get iced
 

Dustin the Wind

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Et tu, Bogey?
Which makes his comments about being forgotten even more interesting.

"Sometimes it’s like I don’t even know if I’m on the team. It’s like, ‘Hey, I’m here.’ But what are you going to do?" - Xander Bogaerts

Would you have felt forgotten if we added arguably the best shortstop in the game and dramatically improved the team?
 

Apisith

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Now that the big free agents are off the board and we still have $20m in payroll space, it would be nice to use some of that to lock up some key young players. But man, looking at our 40-man, there isn’t a lot there. Devers is one, but everyone else becoming a free agent is old (Eovaldi, Kike). Seeing how Correa didn’t get his long term deal, would Devers go for a 8/$200m deal?

Besides him, there’s Houck, Whitlock and Verdugo that I’d be interested in committing beyond their cost-controlled years. But, there’s too much uncertainty about the two pitchers and whether they can start, and is there enough room for improvement with Verdugo? In 200 games with us, he’s been worth 4.3 wins. Say he plays 140 games a year, he’s a 3-win player. That’s valuable enough to extend even if he doesn’t improve. In Bloom’s language, an extension with him could result in surplus value for us.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Now that the big free agents are off the board and we still have $20m in payroll space, it would be nice to use some of that to lock up some key young players. But man, looking at our 40-man, there isn’t a lot there. Devers is one, but everyone else becoming a free agent is old (Eovaldi, Kike). Seeing how Correa didn’t get his long term deal, would Devers go for a 8/$200m deal?

Besides him, there’s Houck, Whitlock and Verdugo that I’d be interested in committing beyond their cost-controlled years. But, there’s too much uncertainty about the two pitchers and whether they can start, and is there enough room for improvement with Verdugo? In 200 games with us, he’s been worth 4.3 wins. Say he plays 140 games a year, he’s a 3-win player. That’s valuable enough to extend even if he doesn’t improve. In Bloom’s language, an extension with him could result in surplus value for us.
Kike is kind of an interesting one. He's only 30 and has been a great fit with the team. I wonder what it would take to extend him 2-3 more years.
 

Pozo the Clown

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Give it time Bogey, you don’t know Bloom’s plan!
At this point, does Chaim?

From the article linked below:

"The night before the lockout went into effect, Bloom said he was hoping to add bullpen help and a right-handed bat when baseball’s market reopened."

"On Monday, in his first session with the media since December, Bloom reiterated his desire to add position players to the club, particularly a right-handed hitter, though he didn’t rule out a reunion with lefty bat Kyle Schwarber."

“We talked about this before the lockout, that the bullpen was going to be a priority for us, that we do still want to add position players to the group,” Bloom said. “The (Hunter Renfroe-Jackie Bradley Jr.) trade we made on Dec. 1 kind of flipped our lineup balance a little bit to where we have an opening for a right-handed bat. That said, in this period, especially with so much going on and so many conversations, we want to be nimble enough to take advantage of all opportunities.”

https://theathletic.com/3183529/2022/03/14/increased-payroll-gives-red-sox-options-as-they-seek-right-handed-hitter-to-upgrade-the-lineup/

Edit: correct link added
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

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At this point, does Chaim?

From the article linked below:

"The night before the lockout went into effect, Bloom said he was hoping to add bullpen help and a right-handed bat when baseball’s market reopened."

"On Monday, in his first session with the media since December, Bloom reiterated his desire to add position players to the club, particularly a right-handed hitter, though he didn’t rule out a reunion with lefty bat Kyle Schwarber."

“We talked about this before the lockout, that the bullpen was going to be a priority for us, that we do still want to add position players to the group,” Bloom said. “The (Hunter Renfroe-Jackie Bradley Jr.) trade we made on Dec. 1 kind of flipped our lineup balance a little bit to where we have an opening for a right-handed bat. That said, in this period, especially with so much going on and so many conversations, we want to be nimble enough to take advantage of all opportunities.”

https://theathletic.com/3183529/2022/03/14/increased-payroll-gives-red-sox-options-as-they-seek-right-handed-hitter-to-upgrade-the-lineup/

Edit: correct link added
I agree, earlier this week I was told that same thing
 

jon abbey

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Was curious how much of an issue this was so I checked, each of the other three AL East contenders have two lefty SPs in their rotation currently:

TOR: Ryu, Kikuchi
TB: McClanahan, Yarbrough
NY: Montgomery, Cortes
 

chawson

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Yeah, it would have been really nice to have signed a Villar or Brad Miller. Arroyo is good but you almost have to expect him to miss time, and the fewer at bats to Arauz or Yolmer, the better.
Yeah I don’t know why you don’t beat Chicago’s offer and give Villar a 1/$10 deal to play 2B and backup everywhere, even if you are in on Story.

For a team that prioritized depth last year we’re somehow very thin on it now. We needed a lot of innings from Marwin, Iglesias, Chavis, Kiké (downgrading to Santana, Duran and Cordero in the outfield), Araúz, Lopez and Munoz to play 2B when Arroyo wasn’t healthy, and he seldom is. Our depth now is Yolmer Sanchez, Araúz and Refsnyder, who hasn’t played second since 2017.

Seems like a lot of risk to take on to eke a little surplus value from Arroyo, whose ceiling is not high. He BABIP’d his way into a decent set of numbers last year but his expected wOBA was only .298.
 

bsj

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The apologists sometimes frustrate me.

Of course the season isn’t over. Of course there will be opportunities to upgrade. And our current roster may overperform. And high priced additions and bloated payrolls don’t always pay off.

But that doesn’t mean it isn’t ok to be concerned or frustrated that the team seems much farther to having a playoff caliber team than it’s division rivals. I would far prefer to have added an offensive threat to play RF … and know that we may be able to further upgrade at the deadline, than have that gaping hole that we have to hope to survive until then. Or I would much rather have added one of the consensus best players available, rather than pick up whoever is left over at the back end of free agency and hope it works out.

It is what it is, hopefully it will work out, but can we back off the self righteous indignation and stop acting like we are all smarter than the folks who are disappointed by the lack of movement?

EDIT- And of course as soon as I write that we sign Story.
 
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sodenj5

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Looking forward to seeing the details. Would assume it’s a short term deal with the uncertainty of whether or not Bogaerts will be here long term.