Red Sox in season discussion

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

A Myers/Campusano trade would be a great fit and if the Sox were willing to take on all of Myers money probably not that expensive. But the Padres outfield without Myers looks like Trent Grisham, Jurickson Profar and nobody. Are they even interested in trading Myers anymore? Was Tatis supposed to be in the OF this year?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

5 innings every 5 games from Whitlock is worth more than 2.5 every 5 games.
I don’t understand the need to keep him in the BP

 

[bosockboy]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1505952530618015752?s=21

 

[jon abbey]

SD wanted to move Hosmer and/or Myers when there were still lots of tempting FAs to spend that newly freed up money on, not sure how much sense it would make for them now.

 

[VORP Speed]

Pads are in on Meadows talks

 

[YTF]

The Myers thing is fascinating to me. His salary isn’t that terrible and it’s just for this year with a team option for next. BA-wise, he doesn’t have big platoon splits, but his OBP is significantly higher vs. LHP’s. I could live with that for this year as a platoon/bench guy if it meant getting a CV replacement. I am skeptical though on what it would take to pry Campusano loose.


Note: If he’s traded, does his $13.8 AAV count for CBT purposes or his $20 for this year only?

IMO, Myers make more sense now than he has at any other moment that he's been discussed. The one remaining year on his contract is more palatable than in past seasons when there was more of a commitment to Myers. He would fill the need a for a RH corner OF and back up at 1B. He's probably good for 20ish HRs, has a .254 lifetime BA that has been fairly consistent from year to year and acquiring him would firm up the two remaining non pitching needs. On his own he can likely be had for very little and as an add on he would reduce the cost of one of their young catchers or perhaps a pitcher.

 

[moondog80]

I'd be all in on paying about 6 or 7 mil for a season of Myers. Not a great fielder but can probably get by for a year in LF if he takes to playing the wall.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

As of this moment, how would you guys rank the AL East?

1. Tor
2. TB
3. Bos
4. NY
5. Bal

Or is NY ahead of Bos? And is TB ahead of Tor?

Most projections so far seem to have Toronto and NY several games better (in the 92-93 win range) than the Sox and Rays who are more like 85-87?

 

[BaseballJones]

I mean, Myers' last two seasons:

718 PA, 640 AB, 38 2b, 32 hr, .266/.340/.488/.827, 128 ops+, 2.6 bWAR

His oWAR is 3.7, and his dWAR is -1.8 over that span, so yeah, he's a pretty bad fielder. But playing left in Fenway is about as good a way to hide a bad outfielder, and his bat absolutely is still useful. Since they're over the tax threshold anyway, I'd be fine with Boston taking on all his salary to get a good young catcher, then if you need/want to, cut bait with him after the season. He'd extend the lineup considerably, as compared with JBJ.

C - Vazquez
1b - Dalbec
2b - Story (man I like saying that)
3b - Devers
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Myers
CF - Kiké
RF - Verdugo
DH - Martinez

That's a pretty good and deep lineup with power everywhere.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Most projections so far seem to have Toronto and NY several games better (in the 92-93 win range) than the Sox and Rays who are more like 85-87?

Fangraphs has it..

1. TOR 93 wins
2. NYY 91 wins
3. BOS/TB 87 wins
5. BAL 67 wins

And that's with Story added to the mix.

FWIW, last year's preseason PECOTA projections had the Yankees at 97 wins, the Rays at 86, Jays at 85, and the Sox at 80. So there's only so much stock to put into them. That said, with just a six win projected spread among the four teams, the order probably doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot. It should be incredibly competitive all year barring significant injuries.

 

[YTF]

I mean, Myers' last two seasons:

718 PA, 640 AB, 38 2b, 32 hr, .266/.340/.488/.827, 128 ops+, 2.6 bWAR

His oWAR is 3.7, and his dWAR is -1.8 over that span, so yeah, he's a pretty bad fielder. But playing left in Fenway is about as good a way to hide a bad outfielder, and his bat absolutely is still useful. Since they're over the tax threshold anyway, I'd be fine with Boston taking on all his salary to get a good young catcher, then if you need/want to, cut bait with him after the season. He'd extend the lineup considerably, as compared with JBJ.

C - Vazquez
1b - Dalbec
2b - Story (man I like saying that)
3b - Devers
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Myers
CF - Kiké
RF - Verdugo
DH - Martinez

That's a pretty good and deep lineup with power everywhere.

I also like that with Plawecki, Bradley and Arroyo as your likely bench you don't have to lock into a back up 1B as your final bench piece with Myers on the roster.

 

[plucy]

AAV is AAV for the term of the contract, regardless of trades. So if the Sox (or anyone else) acquired him, he'd count for $13.8M against the CBT. The only possible change to that would be if cash were sent with him to off-set salary, in which case it would be the $13.8M less the cash payment.

Posted this on another Sox forum:

This is from a Tim Dierkes chat on 3/17: Matt Gelb pointed out something I didn't know, with regard to Kiermaier-Phillies: "The calculus changed with the new collective bargaining agreement. A small accounting wrinkle to contracts that are traded had a direct effect on a player like Kiermaier. He is signed to a six-year, $53 million deal, which means his average annual value is $8.83 million. However, under the new CBA, a traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. That means contracts that are backloaded will be harder to trade (if the acquiring team is concerned about the luxury tax threshold).

So Myers AAV is $21mm. I cannot find a copy of new CBA online to confirm this change.
FWIW, Hosmer‘s AAV drops to $15mm (4/60).

 

[Ale Xander]

5 innings every 5 games from Whitlock is worth more than 2.5 every 5 games.
I don’t understand the need to keep him in the BP

Higher leverage IP (at bats more specifically) are worth more than lower leverage IP

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Posted this on another Sox forum:

This is from a Tim Dierkes chat on 3/17: Matt Gelb pointed out something I didn't know, with regard to Kiermaier-Phillies: "The calculus changed with the new collective bargaining agreement. A small accounting wrinkle to contracts that are traded had a direct effect on a player like Kiermaier. He is signed to a six-year, $53 million deal, which means his average annual value is $8.83 million. However, under the new CBA, a traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. That means contracts that are backloaded will be harder to trade (if the acquiring team is concerned about the luxury tax threshold).

So Myers AAV is $21mm. I cannot find a copy of new CBA online to confirm this change.
FWIW, Hosmer‘s AAV drops to $15mm (4/60).

Thanks for the correction, I wasn't aware of that.

Certainly changes the appeal of trading for a contract like Myers. The idea of a cap hit of $13M (less any added money) is way more palatable than $21M, especially for what he offers.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Thanks for the correction, I wasn't aware of that.

Certainly changes the appeal of trading for a contract like Myers. The idea of a cap hit of $13M (less any added money) is way more palatable than $21M, especially for what he offers.

Yes, although it’s still just one year and a little extra CBT, right? So it merely changes what SD would have to kick in (since it’s not putting us into the tax). I suppose if the team really thought punting and getting back under the tax was a legit option they might need to preserve, that would be a disincentive. But otherwise…

I’d still consider this, but it would be mostly to acquire a prospect and not just Myers himself.

 

[bosockboy]

Thanks for the correction, I wasn't aware of that.

Certainly changes the appeal of trading for a contract like Myers. The idea of a cap hit of $13M (less any added money) is way more palatable than $21M, especially for what he offers.

Depends on what prospect(s) you’re buying with that.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Yes, although it’s still just one year and a little extra CBT, right? So it merely changes the amount that SD would have to kick in (since it’s not putting us into the tax). I suppose if the team really thought punting and getting back under the tax was a legit option they might need to preserve, that would be a disincentive. But otherwise…

I’d still consider this, but it would be mostly to acquire a prospect and not just Myers himself.

Of course it entirely depends on what else they might have planned for the year. There's the possibility of selling at the deadline, though I think with the three wildcards, it would require an epic disaster for this team to be selling. I think the more likely concern is keeping some powder dry for a mid-season acquisition without the concern of escalating into the most severe CBT penalties. I believe the penalties get bigger in $20M increments over the initial $230M. Still just money, but there's bound to be a line somewhere that Bloom doesn't want to cross.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Higher leverage IP (at bats more specifically) are worth more than lower leverage IP

True. And getting to 5 innings without having to dump 4 innings of hi leverage innings onto a BP is still preferable.

Edit- fixed spelling. Also adding that I’m sure there’s been lots of arguments about the value of SP vs Hi-Lev relief arms. My feelings are that the difference between an effective starter going 6 innings allowing 2 runs during that time every 5 days is worth more than a BP arm allowing .3 runs for just one inning twice over that time.

Come playoff time I think that changes but over a season I’m sticking with that

 

[mikcou]

Posted this on another Sox forum:

This is from a Tim Dierkes chat on 3/17: Matt Gelb pointed out something I didn't know, with regard to Kiermaier-Phillies: "The calculus changed with the new collective bargaining agreement. A small accounting wrinkle to contracts that are traded had a direct effect on a player like Kiermaier. He is signed to a six-year, $53 million deal, which means his average annual value is $8.83 million. However, under the new CBA, a traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. That means contracts that are backloaded will be harder to trade (if the acquiring team is concerned about the luxury tax threshold).

So Myers AAV is $21mm. I cannot find a copy of new CBA online to confirm this change.
FWIW, Hosmer‘s AAV drops to $15mm (4/60).

This doesnt make sense unless a credit is provided to the trading team. Otherwise the CBT dollars are in excess of the actual dollars paid to the player, which is complete nonsense.

 

[GB5]

I will absolutely take the over on any projection that only has Tampa winning 86-87 games. It always seems to be smoke in mirrors but they easily cross 90 in my estimation.

 

[nvalvo]

The Myers thing is fascinating to me. His salary isn’t that terrible and it’s just for this year with a team option for next. BA-wise, he doesn’t have big platoon splits, but his OBP is significantly higher vs. LHP’s. I could live with that for this year as a platoon/bench guy if it meant getting a CV replacement. I am skeptical though on what it would take to pry Campusano loose.


Note: If he’s traded, does his $13.8 AAV count for CBT purposes or his $20 for this year only?

AAV is AAV for the term of the contract, regardless of trades. So if the Sox (or anyone else) acquired him, he'd count for $13.8M against the CBT. The only possible change to that would be if cash were sent with him to off-set salary, in which case it would be the $13.8M less the cash payment.

I've actually just learned that these calculations changed in the new CBA!

via the Athletic's story on the Phillies' signing of Schwarber:

The Phillies entertained various scenarios for their outfield and it was not until after the lockout ended — and new rules were revealed — that they veered toward a platoon between Matt Vierling and Odúbel Herrera for center field. The team engaged Tampa Bay about a trade for Kevin Kiermaier before the lockout, according to multiple sources. The Phillies were willing to assume most of Kiermaier’s money for a marginal prospect return. Kiermaier would have been a massive defensive upgrade for the Phillies, although he would have come with questions about his durability and performance at the plate.

The calculus changed with the new collective bargaining agreement. A small accounting wrinkle to contracts that are traded had a direct effect on a player like Kiermaier. He is signed to a six-year, $53 million deal, which means his average annual value is $8.83 million. However, under the new CBA, a traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. That means contracts that are backloaded will be harder to trade (if the acquiring team is concerned about the luxury tax threshold).

Had the Phillies acquired Kiermaier in a trade, he would have counted for $14.67 million against the luxury tax payroll in 2022. That number might have prevented the Phillies — operating on a budget designed not to pay tax — from other moves. They did not value Kiermaier at that rate, along with whatever prospect capital it would have cost. So, they explored other options for center field.

That change actually makes the Padres' salary dumps much less attractive IMO. A big part of what made such deals make sense for the acquiring team was that their AAVs would be considerably lower than the actual payments. No longer.

(edit: I now see this has been covered in posts I hadn't seen yet. My bad!)

 

[nvalvo]

This doesnt make sense unless a credit is provided to the trading team. Otherwise the CBT dollars are in excess of the actual dollars paid to the player, which is complete nonsense.

Unless you're the owners, and the point of the CBT is to restrain spending...

 

[koufax32]

I've actually just learned that these calculations changed in the new CBA!

via the Athletic's story on the Phillies' signing of Schwarber:



That change actually makes the Padres' salary dumps much less attractive IMO. A big part of what made such deals make sense for the acquiring team was that their AAVs would be considerably lower than the actual payments. No longer.

(edit: I now see this has been covered in posts I hadn't seen yet. My bad!)

I’d still offer to take on the whole thing and Campusano for Duran and a lottery ticket.

 

[JimD]

Fangraphs has it..

1. TOR 93 wins
2. NYY 91 wins
3. BOS/TB 87 wins
5. BAL 67 wins

And that's with Story added to the mix.

FWIW, last year's preseason PECOTA projections had the Yankees at 97 wins, the Rays at 86, Jays at 85, and the Sox at 80. So there's only so much stock to put into them. That said, with just a six win projected spread among the four teams, the order probably doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot. It should be incredibly competitive all year barring significant injuries.

I assume (hopefully) that their projection also includes Sale missing time as well?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I assume (hopefully) that their projection also includes Sale missing time as well?

I would think so. Their projection is 121 innings from Sale, compared to 178 for Eovaldi and 157 for Pivetta.

Incidentally, they've downgraded the Rays by a win in their projected standings, so it's now Jays 93, Yankees 91, Sox 87, Rays 86.

 

[RIrooter09]

As of this moment, how would you guys rank the AL East?

1. Tor
2. TB
3. Bos
4. NY
5. Bal

Or is NY ahead of Bos? And is TB ahead of Tor?

For me it's:

1. Tor
2. NY
3. Bos
4. TB
5. Bal

I think the Yankees are due for some better injury luck and the Rays' rotation is a weak spot this year. All four may still make the playoffs though.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Arbitration deadline is today. Settle now or go to a hearing, this time in-season.

Taylor & Pivetta have settled. Verdugo and Devers remain.

View: https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1506315442415194114

View: https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1506317910763053057

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Speier indicating there may not be agreement between team and Devers, so they may be going to a hearing. Doesn't feel like a good sign for potential extension discussions. Unless of course they haven't bothered with an agreement because an extension is close and they're not concerned about getting to the hearing in the first place.

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1506319124225474574

 

[soxhop411]

Speier indicating there may not be agreement between team and Devers, so they may be going to a hearing. Doesn't feel like a good sign for potential extension discussions. Unless of course they haven't bothered with an agreement because an extension is close and they're not concerned about getting to the hearing in the first place.

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1506319124225474574

Sherman clarifies the 1PM deadline
View: https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/1506292511379177481

Arbitration deadline for reaching agreement or exchanging salary requests is 1pm. But there’s a several-hour period until union/MLB meet to make the salary exchange official. Some teams have hard 1pm deadline. Others keep talking in the gap. So deals will come in through the day.

 

[chawson]

View: https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1506325137490120706?s=21


Verdugo, Red Sox agree at $3.55M, avoiding arbitration

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Another piece of spaghetti to throw at the wall and see if he sticks. Sox claimed RHP Kyle Tyler off waivers and optioned him to Worcester. Hudson Potts was DFA to make room. 25-year-old, mostly a starter in the minors.

View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1506328570884468747

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Hold everything: Speier now reports Raffy agreed to 11.2M.

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1506381266383429637

 

[Van Everyman]

Awesome

 

[nvalvo]

This is the thing about file-or-trial teams; it's really file-or-trial... unless we don't want to.

 

[TimScribble]

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1506384764848295936?s=21

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I realize that everyone involved will say they understand that this is all “business,” but most people like to feel that they’re valued by their employers, and most employers want their employees to feel that way. Avoiding contentious arb hearings whenever reasonably possible is always a good thing, imo.

So this is great news. Kumbaya and LFG!

 

[bosockboy]

Really weird for a guy who almost assuredly isn’t making the team.

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1506371326877085701?s=21

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Really weird for a guy who almost assuredly isn’t making the team.

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1506371326877085701?s=21

So Whitlock knows that he'll probably have 22 back soon.

 

[E5 Yaz]

So Whitlock knows that he'll probably have 22 back soon.

But it's really weird

 

[effectivelywild]

But it's really weird

It's especially weird because as best as I can tell, Holland's number before was 45. No obviously he cant have that here but its weird then to ask the promising young guy to give up the jersey number he was "waiting for permission" to wear. I'm assuming Holland isn't aware of Whitlock's Porcello fandom or the significance of the number for him---because if he did it would be an incredibly dickish move. Still, kudos to Whitlock for not making a big deal of it, especially given the likelihood that he will get it back.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

It's especially weird because as best as I can tell, Holland's number before was 45. No obviously he cant have that here but its weird then to ask the promising young guy to give up the jersey number he was "waiting for permission" to wear. I'm assuming Holland isn't aware of Whitlock's Porcello fandom or the significance of the number for him---because if he did it would be an incredibly dickish move. Still, kudos to Whitlock for not making a big deal of it, especially given the likelihood that he will get it back.

Okay, now that actually is weird. He's been 45 his whole pro career other than last year as a Tiger, when he wore 49. I guess Buck Farmer gives no shits.

 

[BringBackMo]

Derek Hollands: all-around tool.

 

[ifmanis5]

View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1506453681851535368

The #RedSox today agreed to terms with five players on one-year, non-guaranteed contracts for the 2022 season, thus avoiding salary arbitration: INF Christian Arroyo 3B Rafael Devers OF Alex Verdugo RHP Nick Pivetta LHP Josh Taylor

 

[Van Everyman]

It's especially weird because as best as I can tell, Holland's number before was 45. No obviously he cant have that here but its weird then to ask the promising young guy to give up the jersey number he was "waiting for permission" to wear. I'm assuming Holland isn't aware of Whitlock's Porcello fandom or the significance of the number for him---because if he did it would be an incredibly dickish move. Still, kudos to Whitlock for not making a big deal of it, especially given the likelihood that he will get it back.

So Whitlock knows that he'll probably have 22 back soon.

Isn’t it custom to pay a guy for giving you his number? If so, Whitlock may be less generous here than crafty.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

Here's Holland on the No. 22 situation, which really is more of a quirky spring training thing than real news...
It's not like he demanded a number. He asked for 22, and Whitlock being a very polite guy, gave it to a veteran. End of story. Cool gesture.

That’s exactly how it went down. Had i known or heard the story before hand i would of kicked rocks and licked some other number. I had no clue of this. It’s a number that pops up a lot in everything. I had no idea of this. He’s a great kid and was extremely nice about it

View: https://twitter.com/Dutch_Oven45/status/1506394603632697351

The fascinating part of this thread is that Rick Porcello is Garrett Whitlock's favorite pitcher ever

What if he was my favorite pitcher ever too

View: https://twitter.com/Dutch_Oven45/status/1506406022310764544

how excited are you that story’s in Boston with you?

I mean. I’ll be more excited if I’m on the team.

View: https://twitter.com/Dutch_Oven45/status/1506413693311102985

 

[joe dokes]

Derek Hollands: all-around tool.

On the radio yesterday, Bradford and Flemming were saying exactly the opposite. Made him sound positively Millar-like. The last round of tweets, above, backs that up.

 

[Joe Nation]

Red Sox designated OF Jeisson Rosario for assignment.

 

[jon abbey]

That’s funny, they DFAd both guys they got for Mitch Moreland within 24 hours.

 

[TapeAndPosts]

That’s funny, they DFAd both guys they got for Mitch Moreland within 24 hours.

That is funny about Rosario and Potts. Good old Mitchy Two-Bags didn't exactly set the world on fire for San Diego, either. In 2020 he gave us 1.2 bWAR in 20 games, and has been good for exactly 0.0 bWAR ever since.

Sometimes you trade Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree for Pivetta and Seabold, and sometimes...

 

[TonyPenaNeverJuiced]

Okay, now that actually is weird. He's been 45 his whole pro career other than last year as a Tiger, when he wore 49. I guess Buck Farmer gives no shits.

[goes and does some research]

#10's on Teams Derek Holland Has Played For:

• Rangers, 2009-2016: Michael Young wears #10 (later retired in 2019)
• White Sox, 2017: Yoan Moncada wears #10; Yoan was only in his second year but he joined the Other Sox about a week before Holland signed
• Giants, 2018-2019: Evan Longoria wears #10, after he joined the team via trade 3 months before Holland signs in Spring Training.
• Cubs, 2019: #10 retired in 2003 in honor of Ron Santo
• Pirates, 2020: Bryan Reynolds has been wearing #10 since 2019
• Tigers, 2021: this. is just a weird one. Only. one player has worn #10 for the Pirates since 1999, and that was Fernando Vina who wore it for 29 games. It might be semi-reitred in honor of Tommy Bridges, who played from 1930-1946

Oh, and Buck Farmer has been with the Tigers in the bigs since 2014, who'd drafted him the year before.

Holland's just about never had the chance to pick #10 (not that it sounds like it's of great significance to him). I suppose 2017 is somewhat similar to what's happened now, though who knows what went on with the White Sox: they probably wanted to make Yoan happy. Maybe each time he joins a team he asks and they've always said no.