Red Sox in season discussion

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
913
Fangraphs has a pretty good article about the top 50 free agents and what their folks are expecting contract-wise. Their consensus is 4/60 for Taylor.
Fangraphs speculates that Baez will get 4 years/$80 million. That would be for his age 29-32 seasons, while Taylor is almost 3 years older. And, no qualifying offer for Baez.

EDIT: basic math
 
Last edited:

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,105
Fangraphs speculates that Baez will get 4 years/$80 million. That would be for his age 29-33 seasons, while Taylor is almost 3 years older. And, no qualifying offer for Baez.

I love Baez on those terms. Small nitpick -- it would be for age 29-32 seasons.
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
913
I love Baez on those terms. Small nitpick -- it would be for age 29-32 seasons.
I do too. It is interesting that Baez and Taylor have similar strike out percentages for their career (29.3% for Baez and 27.5% for Taylor). The prime differences seem to be more positional flexibility for Taylor (capable outfielder) and he gets on base more often (due to Baez's inability to take a walk) while Baez hits for more power and appears to be a much better defensive infielder.

Baez could play 2B in 2022 and then could potentially cover SS, depending on what unfolds with Xander's contract.

(and thanks for the nitpick)
 

Daniel_Son

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2021
1,693
San Diego
I do too. It is interesting that Baez and Taylor have similar strike out percentages for their career (29.3% for Baez and 27.5% for Taylor). The prime differences seem to be more positional flexibility for Taylor (capable outfielder) and he gets on base more often (due to Baez's inability to take a walk) while Baez hits for more power and appears to be a much better defensive infielder.

Baez could play 2B in 2022 and then could potentially cover SS, depending on what unfolds with Xander's contract.

(and thanks for the nitpick)
Personally, the lower strike out rate, positional flexibility, and better on-base skills, coupled with the prospective dollar amount puts Taylor over the edge for me. I think it's more efficient to sign Taylor for 4/60 or 65 than it is to sign Baez at 4/80 - not even getting into his issues with the fans this year. I can't see that playing well in Boston.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
I can't imagine the Sox being in on Rizzo this winter. Signing a 32 year old 1B to a multi-year deal makes no sense with Dalbec in house and Casas knocking on the door.

Schwarber may not be great shakes defensively but as someone three years younger than Rizzo and who has some defensive flexibility (as in he can play the OF on occasion), he seems like a better fit IF the Sox go for a high profile free agent LHH 1B type at all. I could see them going more in the direction of a LHH utility guy who can cover 1B on occasion (e.g. a better version of Marwin Gonzalez) rather than a true 1B like Rizzo.
Also true 1B Rizzo has a lifetime negative dWAR and has had a defensive rating above replacement level only once since 2017. So I think we can just say that whoever pays Rizzo is buying a bat. Dalbec is worse but Rizzo isn't going to transform the infield defense.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
Do people want Chris Taylor to be our everyday second baseman? Some other role? Good player for sure but his big postseason aside, I don’t really trust the bat. He’s also more of an emergency shortstop, not good enough to bump Bogaerts over the next few years. He’s also not a good enough CF to bump Kiké, and if it’s about 2023 on, I’d rather just extend Kiké even at similar money.

This is interesting:

Player A (‘20-21), age 31: 796 PA, .259/.350/.448, 28 HR, 11.2 BB%, 27.9 K%, .339 BABIP, 10.5 Barrel%, .345 wOBA, .338 wOBA vs. RHP, 4 DRS (2B), -2 DRS (OF)

Player B (‘20-21), age 27: 766 PA, .235/.334/.456, 37 HR, 12.0 BB%, 28.6 K%, .292 BABIP, 10.9 Barrel%, .340 wOBA, .353 wOBA vs. RHP, -1 DRS (2B), -4 DRS (OF)

Player A is Chris Taylor. Player B is Ian Happ.

I don’t know if the Cubs are making Happ available (2 arb years left, due roughly $6.5m in 2022). I’m not advocating we trade for him as much as illustrating the kind of player we’re talking about. Given our current roster, the age difference, the RHP splits, and Happ’s breakout potential, I think he may be a better bet over the next few years. Even if he can’t handle 2B (and Arroyo doesn’t exist), we could play him in the outfield and move Kiké back in.

I think the play is finding the next Chris Taylor, not signing an aging Chris Taylor.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
11,947
Yeah I was interested in Taylor but giving up a pick and a long term deal at that kind of AAV for a guy his age isn’t appealing, given the teams other needs. Brad Miller and Joc Pederson could probably be bad for less than a year of Taylor and for half the # of years.
 

Daniel_Son

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2021
1,693
San Diego
Do people want Chris Taylor to be our everyday second baseman? Some other role? Good player for sure but his big postseason aside, I don’t really trust the bat. He’s also more of an emergency shortstop, not good enough to bump Bogaerts over the next few years. He’s also not a good enough CF to bump Kiké, and if it’s about 2023 on, I’d rather just extend Kiké even at similar money.

This is interesting:

Player A (‘20-21), age 31: 796 PA, .259/.350/.448, 28 HR, 11.2 BB%, 27.9 K%, .339 BABIP, 10.5 Barrel%, .345 wOBA, .338 wOBA vs. RHP, 4 DRS (2B), -2 DRS (OF)

Player B (‘20-21), age 27: 766 PA, .235/.334/.456, 37 HR, 12.0 BB%, 28.6 K%, .292 BABIP, 10.9 Barrel%, .340 wOBA, .353 wOBA vs. RHP, -1 DRS (2B), -4 DRS (OF)

Player A is Chris Taylor. Player B is Ian Happ.

I don’t know if the Cubs are making Happ available (2 arb years left, due roughly $6.5m in 2022). I’m not advocating we trade for him as much as illustrating the kind of player we’re talking about. Given our current roster, the age difference, the RHP splits, and Happ’s breakout potential, I think he may be a better bet over the next few years. Even if he can’t handle 2B (and Arroyo doesn’t exist), we could play him in the outfield and move Kiké back in.

I think the play is finding the next Chris Taylor, not signing an aging Chris Taylor.
I made a case for Happ upthread, and I like him for the same reasons as I like Taylor. But I think Taylor is a pretty good value at ~$15 mil a year. If we're using Zobrist as a comp for contract value, he was still very productive at 35 years old. And future aside, the fact remains that we don't have an everyday 2b on the roster for 2022.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
I made a case for Happ upthread, and I like him for the same reasons as I like Taylor. But I think Taylor is a pretty good value at ~$15 mil a year. If we're using Zobrist as a comp for contract value, he was still very productive at 35 years old. And future aside, the fact remains that we don't have an everyday 2b on the roster for 2022.
Arroyo and Kike cover 2B well enough that there's no need to seek an "everyday" 2B right now. A utility guy who can fill in should one of those guys get hurt though, I think that is a good target (particularly if he can cover some time at 1B too). Don't know exactly who that is, but it certainly doesn't have to be a guy making $15M a year.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
I made a case for Happ upthread, and I like him for the same reasons as I like Taylor. But I think Taylor is a pretty good value at ~$15 mil a year. If we're using Zobrist as a comp for contract value, he was still very productive at 35 years old. And future aside, the fact remains that we don't have an everyday 2b on the roster for 2022.
You forgot about Bogaerts! *ducks*

You’re right, I think, that even if it’s Arroyo, we’ll need another guy capable of starting.
 

BravesField

New Member
Oct 27, 2021
252
It seems to me that Chaim maybe the hardest working guy in Boston this offseason. What are his options?

With 5 key guys in the last year of their contract, (X - probable opt out, JDM, Eovaldi, Kike and Vazquez), does he GFIN and buy this offseason? So of those 5, who can we keep at reasonable cost/years if we spend a chunk this offseason? Or does he wait it out and see what's left. I think we all agree the defense and the speed needs to be addressed. Locastro, if he makes the team, should go along way to addressing the speed factor. As for the D?, perhaps signing a real first baseman, till Casas is ready.

It also occurs to me that Chaim may not be a big buyer this off season, and just go with what we have. Hopefully we get off to a start in 2022 like we did this past season. If not, we may see Yawkey Way fire sale by the deadline next year.

I did not forget about Erod accepting or not the QO. So maybe 6 key guys.....

If I'm missing anything please enlighten me.
 

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
1,637
Chicago, IL
It seems to me that Chaim maybe the hardest working guy in Boston this offseason. What are his options?

With 5 key guys in the last year of their contract, (X - probable opt out, JDM, Eovaldi, Kike and Vazquez), does he GFIN and buy this offseason? So of those 5, who can we keep at reasonable cost/years if we spend a chunk this offseason? Or does he wait it out and see what's left. I think we all agree the defense and the speed needs to be addressed. Locastro, if he makes the team, should go along way to addressing the speed factor. As for the D?, perhaps signing a real first baseman, till Casas is ready.

It also occurs to me that Chaim may not be a big buyer this off season, and just go with what we have. Hopefully we get off to a start in 2022 like we did this past season. If not, we may see Yawkey Way fire sale by the deadline next year.

I did not forget about Erod accepting or not the QO. So maybe 6 key guys.....

If I'm missing anything please enlighten me.
I really hope he doesn't stand pat. That seems like a bit of a waste of season. I frankly think the Red Sox are very good, but a couple players away from being championship caliber. If nothing else they need arms. If ERod doesn't accept the QO or sign an extension, they need to get a quality starter, and then add a couple quality relievers. They could also use a better utility guy, someone up thread mentioned Brad Miller, who might be nice.

If they can sign a second baseman who can shift from the position when Yorke is ready, there's an opening to improve the hitting line up. (Or he could surprise us and spice it up signing Suzuki from the Japanese league, and trading Renfroe for pitching - fun!) ....

But here's what I expect, from my laymen's stupor: Chaim improves the bench and the bullpen. If the Red Sox are not competing at the trade deadline, there will be a fire sale of sorts. If they are, I think we see Chaim GFIN more aggressively than last year. 2022 likely is the end of the window for this core, and 2023 will see the building of the next ....

But standing pat, that would be kinda sad .....
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
I'm going to throw out a somewhat wild idea, how about signing Starling Marte to a high AAV 2-3 year deal? Make him your regular CF and move Kike to 2B. The only real negative is it might make the lineup too RHH heavy (Devers and Verdugo are the only LHH). Maybe this is the fall back if they don't win the bid on Suzuki?
 

Daniel_Son

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2021
1,693
San Diego
I'm going to throw out a somewhat wild idea, how about signing Starling Marte to a high AAV 2-3 year deal? Make him your regular CF and move Kike to 2B. The only real negative is it might make the lineup too RHH heavy (Devers and Verdugo are the only LHH). Maybe this is the fall back if they don't win the bid on Suzuki?
I think the other negative is that Kike is a top-5 CF. While I like Marte, I don't think he's good enough to push Kike out. Plus, I don't think Marte would settle for a 2-3 year deal at 32 years old.
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
913
Starling Marte, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Schwarber are the top offensive players who don't have a Qualifying Offer attached. I'm not high on Rizzo* and I don't think Bryant would be a good fit. But I'm all for the Sox monitoring the other names and seeing if there is an opportunity for a contract that works out for the team.

As was mentioned earlier in the thread, I think Bloom is going to sit back and wait since there are so many different ways for this team to be structured.

*EDIT- To put a finer point on this, I think Mark Canha will out produce Rizzo next year for way less money.
 
Last edited:

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
I think the other negative is that Kike is a top-5 CF. While I like Marte, I don't think he's good enough to push Kike out. Plus, I don't think Marte would settle for a 2-3 year deal at 32 years old.
Marte has 2 gold gloves and has played a good amount of left field. He's also a career .289 hitter who's stolen nearly 300 bases (47 last season) and there's going to be a need for another OF on this team. I was hoping the Sox could have swung a deal for him at the trade deadline, IMO they have the same need now, the question is how affordable will he be.
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,620
If Syndergaard can be signed for a one year deal I would jump all over that. 1 year $18 mil? I would also rather have Carlos Rodon than ERod if they can be signed for similar deals.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
11,947
Syndergaard seems a little too high risk, high reward for me given the rest of the rotation. I also think you’d want a guy you sign for multiple years given Eovaldi is a FA (and theoretically, Sale could opt out). Also seems that if Noah wants a one year deal, he’d just take the QO.

A multi-year deal to E-Rod, Rodon, Wood, or DeSclafani seems preferable to me.
 

Mighty Joe Young

The North remembers
SoSH Member
Sep 14, 2002
8,401
Halifax, Nova Scotia , Canada
I kind of like the idea of signing Baez to play 2b. Obviously it’s an upgrade. He seems to be the odd man out in the mega SS sweepstakes this year (or Story), doesn’t have the QO baggage so a little patience could result in a reasonable deal. That also provides protection at SS if X opts out or they want to move him to 3B. He has his warts but is a very good player.
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
913
I kind of like the idea of signing Baez to play 2b. Obviously it’s an upgrade. He seems to be the odd man out in the mega SS sweepstakes this year (or Story), doesn’t have the QO baggage so a little patience could result in a reasonable deal. That also provides protection at SS if X opts out or they want to move him to 3B. He has his warts but is a very good player.
Sign Baez and Schwarber. Trade JD or Renfroe (or both). And then fill in the gaps in the pitching staff.
 

Adirondack jack

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 24, 2008
1,584
My free advice for the offseason is that standing pat while at the end of a window may not be best. The opportunity cost of fielding a pretty good team is too damn high.

And also, regarding the earlier point, Kike had a fine (probably career year) at the plate etc. No doubt he was a gem of last year pickups, league-wide. While his defense seemed adequate out there I am doubting we should be looking at a replication of 2021. Defensively alone I can't see him as above average going forward especially roaming the tricky CF of Fenway.
 

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
1,637
Chicago, IL
My free advice for the offseason is that standing pat while at the end of a window may not be best. The opportunity cost of fielding a pretty good team is too damn high.

And also, regarding the earlier point, Kike had a fine (probably career year) at the plate etc. No doubt he was a gem of last year pickups, league-wide. While his defense seemed adequate out there I am doubting we should be looking at a replication of 2021. Defensively alone I can't see him as above average going forward especially roaming the tricky CF of Fenway.
Yes, rather than upgrading at second, they could upgrade in the outfield, with Bryant, or Marte, or Suzuki, and put Kiké back at second ....
 

Heating up in the bullpen

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2007
1,082
Pittsboro NC
Yes, rather than upgrading at second, they could upgrade in the outfield, with Bryant, or Marte, or Suzuki, and put Kiké back at second ....
I'm not sure this suggestion does anything to help the defense. Here are some numbers (small sample sizes and defensive metrics caveats, to be sure):

Kiké 2021 CF (716 Inn) DRS 14 UZR/150 12.1
Kiké 2021 2B (367 Inn) DRS 0. UZR/150 -1.3
The year he saw the most action at 2b, 589 innings in 2019, he had a DRS of 12, but a UZR/150 of -0.3. In fact, the only year he had a positive UZR/150 was 2014, his first in the bigs. For his career (1630 innings), his UZR/150 at 2B is -5.1. In contrast, his career (1825 innings) UZR/150 in CF is 10.1.

Arroyo 2021 2B (387 Inn) DRS 5. UZR/150 7.8
His career (only 581 innings) UZR/150 at 2B is 7.4.

Marte 2021 CF (1023 Inn) DRS -4. UZR/150 1.0
These numbers don't even represent an aging slip. For his career in CF (4480 innings), Marte has -12 DRS and a UZR/150 of -0.6.

Neither Bryant nor Suzuki is a centerfielder. Nor are Verdugo or Renfroe.

Unless the goal is to weaken the Red Sox' two most productive defensive positions, I'd leave Kiké in CF and Arroyo at 2B (unless they're bringing in someone who actually upgrades the defense). Marte brings offensive (possibly*) and baserunning (definitely**) upside, but at the cost of weakening two positions. I don't think it's worth it when defense is a bigger problem than offense.

* Marte had a 133 wRC+ in 2021, compared to Kiké's 110 and Arroyo's 106. But Marte's was an outlier, the highest of his career. His next closest was 132 in 2014. His three most recent years have been 112, 118, 108. His Steamer projection for 2022 is 110. Kiké's Steamer projection is 105, and Arroyo's is 91. Marte will be 33 years old in 2022, Kiké 30, Arroyo 27. I'd bet on Arroyo at least matching his 2021 wRC+ next year; Kiké too. I wouldn't bet on Marte matching his.

** Marte had 47 SB last year and a 12.3 BsR score from FanGraphs. Kiké had 1 SB and a 3.0 BsR; Arroyo 0 SB and a 1.5 BsR. Marte is clearly a better baserunner.

One more point. FanGraphs rated the 2021 Red Sox as being 6th in 2B WAR (4.7) and 5th in CF WAR (5.2). The other positions came in like this: C - 21st (1.3), 1B - 21st (1.6), 3B - 5th (4.7), SS - 5th (5.2), LF - 13th (2.4), RF - 19th (1.8), DH - 2nd (4.3).

By exercising the Vazquez option it seems like they don't plan to upgrade catcher, though that's an obvious place for improvement.

Ditto for 1B, but do they trust that Bobby D will continue to improve? Even so, a LHH to platoon with him would be helpful; maybe that's what Bloom means by saying Schwarber "fits us."

RF is the next position that could stand an upgrade. I loved Renfroe's arm out there, and he made some plays. But he also didn't make other plays. FanGraphs gives him 0 DRS in RF for 2021 in 1166 innings, and a -2.1 UZR/150. He put up a 114 wRC+ with -2.6 BsR, and his Steamer projection for 2022 is a 110 wRC+. Kris Bryant wouldn't be a better defender in RF, but he would bring offensive and baserunning upside. Call me crazy, but I think RF looks like the most likely position for an upgrade. Move Renfroe and either bring in a FA or find a better Renfroe among this year's non-tenders, or trade for one.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2007
1,082
Pittsboro NC
Thinking more about what it would mean to bring back Schwarber.
He could definitely platoon at 1B with Bobby D. He could also platoon in the outfield -- against RHP move Verdugo to RF and Schwarber to LF (assuming Renfroe still on the team). Of course, he can't platoon two positions at once. Which I think makes it imperative for the Sox to bring in another LHH (assuming signing Schwarber) who can play OF. A LHH utility IF would also be helpful. Ideally, Duran and Arauz would elevate their games and fill those spots (but we can't count on that).

Here are some 2021 wRC+ splits:
Bobby D vs LHP 129, vs RHP 92
Renfroe vs LHP 135, vs RHP 102
Schwarber vs LHP 119, vs RHP 157
Verdugo vs LHP 48, vs RHP 138
Christian Arroyo vs LHP 137, vs RHP 86
Brad Miller* vs LHP 39, vs RHP 123

I had no idea about Verdugo against lefties. That was in 200 PA. Schwarber could be platooning with Verdugo against LHP and with Bobby D/Renfroe against RHP.

* Brad Miller, mentioned upthread as a possible utility player target, would be a good platoon option against RHP, but no help against lefties.
 

RobertS975

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 28, 2005
367
How can anyone talk about platoons vs RHP or LHP in this day and age? In 2019, average innings per start was 4.8. I suspect that it was less in 3021.
 

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
1,637
Chicago, IL
I'm not sure this suggestion does anything to help the defense. Here are some numbers (small sample sizes and defensive metrics caveats, to be sure):

Kiké 2021 CF (716 Inn) DRS 14 UZR/150 12.1
Kiké 2021 2B (367 Inn) DRS 0. UZR/150 -1.3
The year he saw the most action at 2b, 589 innings in 2019, he had a DRS of 12, but a UZR/150 of -0.3. In fact, the only year he had a positive UZR/150 was 2014, his first in the bigs. For his career (1630 innings), his UZR/150 at 2B is -5.1. In contrast, his career (1825 innings) UZR/150 in CF is 10.1.

Arroyo 2021 2B (387 Inn) DRS 5. UZR/150 7.8
His career (only 581 innings) UZR/150 at 2B is 7.4.

Marte 2021 CF (1023 Inn) DRS -4. UZR/150 1.0
These numbers don't even represent an aging slip. For his career in CF (4480 innings), Marte has -12 DRS and a UZR/150 of -0.6.

Neither Bryant nor Suzuki is a centerfielder. Nor are Verdugo or Renfroe.

Unless the goal is to weaken the Red Sox' two most productive defensive positions, I'd leave Kiké in CF and Arroyo at 2B (unless they're bringing in someone who actually upgrades the defense). Marte brings offensive (possibly*) and baserunning (definitely**) upside, but at the cost of weakening two positions. I don't think it's worth it when defense is a bigger problem than offense.

* Marte had a 133 wRC+ in 2021, compared to Kiké's 110 and Arroyo's 106. But Marte's was an outlier, the highest of his career. His next closest was 132 in 2014. His three most recent years have been 112, 118, 108. His Steamer projection for 2022 is 110. Kiké's Steamer projection is 105, and Arroyo's is 91. Marte will be 33 years old in 2022, Kiké 30, Arroyo 27. I'd bet on Arroyo at least matching his 2021 wRC+ next year; Kiké too. I wouldn't bet on Marte matching his.

** Marte had 47 SB last year and a 12.3 BsR score from FanGraphs. Kiké had 1 SB and a 3.0 BsR; Arroyo 0 SB and a 1.5 BsR. Marte is clearly a better baserunner.

One more point. FanGraphs rated the 2021 Red Sox as being 6th in 2B WAR (4.7) and 5th in CF WAR (5.2). The other positions came in like this: C - 21st (1.3), 1B - 21st (1.6), 3B - 5th (4.7), SS - 5th (5.2), LF - 13th (2.4), RF - 19th (1.8), DH - 2nd (4.3).

By exercising the Vazquez option it seems like they don't plan to upgrade catcher, though that's an obvious place for improvement.

Ditto for 1B, but do they trust that Bobby D will continue to improve? Even so, a LHH to platoon with him would be helpful; maybe that's what Bloom means by saying Schwarber "fits us."

RF is the next position that could stand an upgrade. I loved Renfroe's arm out there, and he made some plays. But he also didn't make other plays. FanGraphs gives him 0 DRS in RF for 2021 in 1166 innings, and a -2.1 UZR/150. He put up a 114 wRC+ with -2.6 BsR, and his Steamer projection for 2022 is a 110 wRC+. Kris Bryant wouldn't be a better defender in RF, but he would bring offensive and baserunning upside. Call me crazy, but I think RF looks like the most likely position for an upgrade. Move Renfroe and either bring in a FA or find a better Renfroe among this year's non-tenders, or trade for one.
These defensive stats are persuasive of course. Doesn't foreclose the option of acquiring an outfielder. Though maybe with eye toward trading someone to get some pitching and subsequently keeping Kiké in center.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,243
One thing about Schwarber to consider (that i'm sure is on Bloom's mind) is that his defense improved from not-a-major-leaguer to bad-major leaguer in relatively short order under some trying circumstances. If they see him as only being a minor negative defensively, then I think it's better than 50-50 he's coming back.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
Sign Baez and Schwarber. Trade JD or Renfroe (or both). And then fill in the gaps in the pitching staff.
If they sign Schwarber they don't need to trade JD. Martinez has one year left, Schwarber can swap in and out of DH with JD this year, then take over full time after that while Casas assumes 1B and Dalbec tries to find his way, either at third (give Devers one more year to see if he can hold it down defensively) or outside the org.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
If they sign Schwarber they don't need to trade JD. Martinez has one year left, Schwarber can swap in and out of DH with JD this year, then take over full time after that while Casas assumes 1B and Dalbec tries to find his way, either at third (give Devers one more year to see if he can hold it down defensively) or outside the org.
Probably better to trade Dalbec than restrict him to 300-400 PAs in one of the two remaining seasons he’s making league minimum. He would be more valuable to another team to play for a breakout.
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
913
If they sign Schwarber they don't need to trade JD. Martinez has one year left, Schwarber can swap in and out of DH with JD this year, then take over full time after that while Casas assumes 1B and Dalbec tries to find his way, either at third (give Devers one more year to see if he can hold it down defensively) or outside the org.
I imagine Bloom would consider trading Martinez or Renfroe or Dalbec and would make a decision based on the return and the free agent options available to fill the gaps.
 

johnnywayback

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 8, 2004
1,421
I don't think you want Kyle Schwarber to be your only 1B option, so if they do sign him to play there and want to trade Dalbec, they'll need to acquire another RHH 1B. I adore the idea of signing Mark Canha, who can also play corner outfield and even a little bit of CF.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
Probably better to trade Dalbec than restrict him to 300-400 PAs in one of the two remaining seasons he’s making league minimum. He would be more valuable to another team to play for a breakout.
Maybe. It would be interesting to see what people are willing to offer. Do other GMs associate him with the strikeouts (and playoff benching) or the homers?
 

GB5

New Member
Aug 26, 2013
675
the defensive infield was a sieve last year. Didnt show up too badly in the postseason, but they cant come back with a defensive downgrade at first in Schwarber over Dalbec., which certainly is going from unplayable to just bad. The last memory I want of Schwarber at first is him giving himself a standing O for being able to flip a ball five feet to a pitcher covering the bag. He is awesome, and a blast to watch, and obviously a fantastic sense of humor, but him doing that should be everything you need to know about how HE feels about his ability to play base.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
I don't think you want Kyle Schwarber to be your only 1B option, so if they do sign him to play there and want to trade Dalbec, they'll need to acquire another RHH 1B. I adore the idea of signing Mark Canha, who can also play corner outfield and even a little bit of CF.
Canha's defense is rated slightly below average at 1B, about -8 runs saved per year at the position, including -4 runs saved by range. Which is pretty negligible, but at 32 he's not likely to improve. These numbers are also about the same as Dalbec's, with Dalbec having plenty of room to improve (in theory, with experience).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
the defensive infield was a sieve last year. Didnt show up too badly in the postseason, but they cant come back with a defensive downgrade at first in Schwarber over Dalbec., which certainly is going from unplayable to just bad. The last memory I want of Schwarber at first is him giving himself a standing O for being able to flip a ball five feet to a pitcher covering the bag. He is awesome, and a blast to watch, and obviously a fantastic sense of humor, but him doing that should be everything you need to know about how HE feels about his ability to play base.
It was also, what, his tenth game playing there? And he screwed up a play that is drilled in spring training (which obviously he didn't participate in) and rarely addressed or practiced afterwards.

I'm not going to argue that he can turn himself into a gold glover or anything, but there's no way to determine he's a lost cause based on his humorous reaction to one play. Including playoffs, he's played a total of 144 innings at 1B. That's not enough to conclude anything.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,753
Twin Cities
...Including playoffs, he's played a total of 144 innings at 1B. That's not enough to conclude anything.
Yeah. You need good instruction - positioning, footwork, glovework, defensive strategy. And you need repetition to move from thinking about how to do something to muscle memory. You're right; you get that in spring training. Really hard to do it during the season, on the fly.

Add to that that Schwarber was learning a new league of pitchers and a quirky LF in Fenway, and he was being force-fed fast.
 

Daniel_Son

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2021
1,693
San Diego

ngruz25

Bibby
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
18,976
Pittsburgh, PA
Yeah. You need good instruction - positioning, footwork, glovework, defensive strategy. And you need repetition to move from thinking about how to do something to muscle memory. You're right; you get that in spring training. Really hard to do it during the season, on the fly.

Add to that that Schwarber was learning a new league of pitchers and a quirky LF in Fenway, and he was being force-fed fast.
I know I've made this point several times, but it bears repeating: learning a new position is hard. That makes it LESS likely that Schwarber signs in Boston. He has a say in where he ends up, obviously. While I'm sure he'd say all the right things if asked, I don't know why he would be jonesing to learn a new position if there are offers available for him to DH and/or play the OF.

He was a good soldier last season when he had no real say in the matter, and that probably didn't go unnoticed around the league. But I don't expect him to consider himself a 1B now because of the weird circumstance he found himself in last season.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,510
Rogers Park
Lots of proposals to trade Renfroe in the thread, all of which raise the question: what is our sense of his value?

He was non-tendered at $3.1m last year after a poor season, so his value was basically nil quite recently. But he was pretty good (~2 WAR by both systems) this season. Apart from all the assists, the defensive numbers were pretty grim, but his SLG-heavy 114 wRC+ was impressive. He showed he could be an above-average bat against righties (.777 OPS), and an excellent hitter against lefties (.885).

Still, the trade value simulator thinks his trade value is quite low: that with his projected Arb award, he's basically at par, or a tic above. An example of a pitcher the sim thinks Renfroe could return: A.J. Puk. Yiiiikes.

I was a bit shocked by that until I reflected a bit. A standard 3-2-1 projection would suggest 1.6 bWAR or 1.1 fWAR for next season. That 2020 season really sucked. And because HR is basically the skill best-compensated by the arb system, he's likely to be paid a lot better in his next arb award: MLBTR suggests $7.6m, and they're generally pretty close.

I think the sim is still probably a touch pessimistic, but they're probably right in the big picture: there's not a ton of surplus value here, even with two more seasons of control. He's probably more valuable as a league-averageish player paid pretty fairly than he is as a trade chip.
 

Mugsy's Jock

Eli apologist
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 28, 2000
15,069
UWS, NYC
I don't think you want Kyle Schwarber to be your only 1B option, so if they do sign him to play there and want to trade Dalbec, they'll need to acquire another RHH 1B. I adore the idea of signing Mark Canha, who can also play corner outfield and even a little bit of CF.
Co-sign on Canha. He's a totally decent CF, and very competent in the corners.

Getting Semien or Baez for 2B is way sexier, but Canha in CF and Kike back in the infield with the money getting spent on pitching would be AOK by me.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I know I've made this point several times, but it bears repeating: learning a new position is hard. That makes it LESS likely that Schwarber signs in Boston. He has a say in where he ends up, obviously. While I'm sure he'd say all the right things if asked, I don't know why he would be jonesing to learn a new position if there are offers available for him to DH and/or play the OF.

He was a good soldier last season when he had no real say in the matter, and that probably didn't go unnoticed around the league. But I don't expect him to consider himself a 1B now because of the weird circumstance he found himself in last season.
Do you have any proof that he’s jonesing to be a DH? He might have been acting as a good soldier when he was DHing.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
I'd rather have them resign Rodriguez than go after Matz. In fact, there really aren't any pitchers on our staff I'd bump in favor of Matz. Seems like the Sox are just doing their due diligence, but I don't think they'll seriously pursue him.
I agree with your point of due diligence, but they've already "bumped" Richards and Perez from the staff so I would imagine we'll see at least a couple of new faces rounding things out.