Red Sox Opening Day Roster

RedOctober3829

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The 25-man roster appears to be set. Steve Selsky was added to the roster instead of Marco Hernandez and Kyle Kendrick was left off but will be added if Pomeranz can't go on 4/9. Selsky is likely insurance at 1B until Hanley Ramirez can play the field. Once he is, Selsky will likely go down to AAA and Hernandez brought up.

C-Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez
1B-Mitch Moreland, Steve Selsky
2B-Dustin Pedroia
SS-Xander Bogaerts
3B-Pablo Sandoval
OF-Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Benintendi, Chris Young
UTIL-Brock Holt
DH-Hanley Ramirez

SP-Rick Porcello, Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright
RP- CL Craig Kimbrel, 7th/8th inning: Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes. Situational: Robbie Ross, Jr., Heath Hembree, Robby Scott, Fernando Abad. Break Glass in case of Emergency: Ben Taylor

DL-David Price, Tyler Thornburg, Carson Smith, Josh Rutledge, Drew Pomeranz, Roenis Elias

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/04/boston_red_sox_2017_opening_da.html
 
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AlNipper49

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October, I broke a few things out of this thread but that in no way means I am trying to kill this thread :)
 

JimBoSox9

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Welll to not be dead it sort if needs a discussion point. With Kelly and Smith both having extremely wide variance bands in their projections, betting on those two plus Barnes to be the SP->Kimbrel bridge for close winnable games seems like the kind of risk that can submarine an otherwise championship-caliber roster.

It's a less risky bet when you've got Sale/Porcello/Price soaking innings, I suppose, but DD should set a June 1st Outlook Reminder right now to start shopping around for a top-shelf setup guy.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Welll to not be dead it sort if needs a discussion point. With Kelly and Smith both having extremely wide variance bands in their projections, betting on those two plus Barnes to be the SP->Kimbrel bridge for close winnable games seems like the kind of risk that can submarine an otherwise championship-caliber roster.

It's a less risky bet when you've got Sale/Porcello/Price soaking innings, I suppose, but DD should set a June 1st Outlook Reminder right now to start shopping around for a top-shelf setup guy.
I said 3 months ago that the bullpen wasn't championship caliber and got torched on here for it. Without a couple of guys vastly outperforming their previous norms, (which admittedly happens often enough in a bullpen) Dombrowski will be shopping for relievers in July. I just hope he doesn't take his historic approach with bullpens where he regularly undershoots.

Now I'll sit back and wait to get torched again.
 

Merkle's Boner

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Welll to not be dead it sort if needs a discussion point. With Kelly and Smith both having extremely wide variance bands in their projections, betting on those two plus Barnes to be the SP->Kimbrel bridge for close winnable games seems like the kind of risk that can submarine an otherwise championship-caliber roster.

It's a less risky bet when you've got Sale/Porcello/Price soaking innings, I suppose, but DD should set a June 1st Outlook Reminder right now to start shopping around for a top-shelf setup guy.
Is it reasonable to expect Carson Smith back around the trade deadline? That's potentially better than trading for a top-shelf setup guy.
 

dynomite

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I said 3 months ago that the bullpen wasn't championship caliber and got torched on here for it. Without a couple of guys vastly outperforming their previous norms, (which admittedly happens often enough in a bullpen) Dombrowski will be shopping for relievers in July. I just hope he doesn't take his historic approach with bullpens where he regularly undershoots.

Now I'll sit back and wait to get torched again.
BURN HIM!!!!!!!!

No, it's a reasonable opinion, but as I said in the bullpen thread I disagree.

Last season the Red Sox had the 5th best bullpen ERA in baseball (9th in MLB - Cubs were 8th). And that was despite disappointing results from 4 of our best bullpen arms:
- Kimbrel (never the same after injury, worst season of his career),
- Tazawa (toast after the ASB),
- Koji (not the same, then the injury), and
- Carson Smith (pitched 2.2 innings).

In short, last year's bullpen was solid despite not getting health luck.

That's why I think this bullpen should be roughly similar to last year's, and has the potential to be better depending on Thornburg and Smith's health. I think that's "championship caliber" with these starting pitchers and this offense, but again, reasonable people can disagreee.
 

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I said 3 months ago that the bullpen wasn't championship caliber and got torched on here for it. Without a couple of guys vastly outperforming their previous norms, (which admittedly happens often enough in a bullpen) Dombrowski will be shopping for relievers in July. I just hope he doesn't take his historic approach with bullpens where he regularly undershoots.

Now I'll sit back and wait to get torched again.
For me, the biggest eye-opener in that discussion was the one that showed that season-long bullpen aggregates for WS Champs were rarely tip-top.

I think part of that is that playoff bullpens are inherently much different than season long bullpens, both in terms of structure and, more importantly, usage. A playoff bullpen needs 2-3 guys who are great, and maybe one or two more who are good.

The guys in the pen in October will not look like those that suit up tomorrow. Look at how different the 2013 team's bullpen was in April vs October.
 

mwonow

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The 25-man roster appears to be set. Steve Selsky was added to the roster instead of Marco Hernandez and Kyle Kendrick was left off but will be added if Pomeranz can't go on 4/9. Selsky is likely insurance at 1B until Hanley Ramirez can play the field. Once he is, Selsky will likely go down to AAA and Hernandez brought up.

C-Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez
1B-Mitch Moreland, Steve Selsky
2B-Dustin Pedroia
SS-Xander Bogaerts
3B-Pablo Sandoval
OF-Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Benintendi, Chris Young
UTIL-Brock Holt
DH-Hanley Ramirez

SP-Rick Porcello, Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright
RP- CL Craig Kimbrel, 7th/8th inning: Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes. Situational: Robbie Ross, Jr., Heath Hembree, Robby Scott, Fernando Abad. Break Glass in case of Emergency: Ben Taylor

DL-David Price, Tyler Thornburg, Carson Smith, Josh Rutledge, Drew Pomeranz, Roenis Elias

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/04/boston_red_sox_2017_opening_da.html
I sure hope someone in the FO is looking at strength and conditioning routines for Red Sox pitchers. Having 40% of your starting rotation and 50% of your top four relievers opening on the DL is really not good. I know pitchers carry a high injury risk, but...

Mid-season pick ups might be Smith, Thornburg, Price and Pomeranz. All without giving anything up
Hopefully, a couple of these guys will be back well before mid-season!
 

oumbi

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Does anyone have any insights as to why Hernandez did not make the opening day roster? He plays so many positions, has speed, and had a great spring in terms of hitting. I was sure he would make the trip north.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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For me, the biggest eye-opener in that discussion was the one that showed that season-long bullpen aggregates for WS Champs were rarely tip-top.

I think part of that is that playoff bullpens are inherently much different than season long bullpens, both in terms of structure and, more importantly, usage. A playoff bullpen needs 2-3 guys who are great, and maybe one or two more who are good.

The guys in the pen in October will not look like those that suit up tomorrow. Look at how different the 2013 team's bullpen was in April vs October.
This is a good point, but as I said in the other thread there was no one in the Sox bullpen in 2016 that gave you Miller or Chapman level confidence in the bullpen. In 04 we had Foulke, 07 we had Paps and 13 we had Koji. Admittedly the 2013 bullpen was a cluster-F and Koji emerged. It's an example of what can happen in a bullpen.

When the Sox were eliminated in 2016, I wanted Henry and Werner to clean house. I wanted Dombrowski gone, Farrell gone and half the team. I don't think Dombrowski and Farrell are bad, but that doesn't mean I think they're particularly good either. Dombrowski's career has been highlighted with "gambles" on huge names (Cabrera, Sale, Price x2), trading prospects and creating mediocre bullpens. He hasn't been at the helm of a winner in 20 years.
 

Byrdbrain

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Does anyone have any insights as to why Hernandez did not make the opening day roster? He plays so many positions, has speed, and had a great spring in terms of hitting. I was sure he would make the trip north.
He doesn't play first base.
With Moreland potentially out or not able to play every day they needed more flexibility. The thought is he may come up when Moreland is 100% with Selsky going down. The fact that Hanley hasn't been able to play in the field just weakens the potential 1B pool even more.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Does anyone have any insights as to why Hernandez did not make the opening day roster? He plays so many positions, has speed, and had a great spring in terms of hitting. I was sure he would make the trip north.
I think it's because he's a LHH, and Farrell wants someone who bats right-handed.

The Red Sox regulars include 3 batters you might consider a PH for late in the game against a LHRP: Moreland, Sandoval, and Bradley. And, even if Farrell keeps batting Bogaerts 6th, the 5-7-8 looks susceptible to getting carved up by even a fairly mediocre lefty.

So the need for RHH bench options is real. Meanwhile, Young can't play 1B or 3B, and the person most likely to have a LHP brought in from the pen is the first guy in the sequence. Based on Farrell's recent lineups pre-flu, that guy appears to be the 1B, Moreland.

The circumstance of Rutledge's injury could have been used to reorder the lineup so as not to feature Mitch Moreland's career .315 OBP in the 5-hole. But it seems that Farrell prefers him there, maybe based on teying out his "made for Fenway swing" that I keep hearing the NESN crew talk about.

Because that didn't happen, the active roster needs someone able to play 1st base, who hits LHP well. Ergo, Selsky.
 

brandonchristensen

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What's the word on Carson Smith? Is he expected to come back at all before the break?

(EDIT)
Ignore me, this was already asked.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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When the Sox were eliminated in 2016, I wanted Henry and Werner to clean house. I wanted Dombrowski gone, Farrell gone and half the team.
Well, this is the kind of thing that fires up the torches. "When the Sox were eliminated in 2016" makes it sound as if you're talking about a team that was mathematically out of contention with weeks to go--not a team that made it to the ALDS but no farther.

A team that makes the playoffs has, by definition, had a successful year. It's disappointing when the team doesn't advance, but responding to that disappointment by calling for the owner to fire the manager and GM and dump half the roster is just bananas.

Now that's not the same as saying that every playoff team is ipso facto well situated for the following season and should stand pat. It often happens that a team has a successful year but nonetheless needs major offseason changes. Maybe the team overachieved during the regular season--or maybe it underachieved for reasons that can be fixed--or maybe it has too many aging veterans on the brink of decline. There could be any number of reasons to say "we can't rest on our laurels here, we need to make some moves if we expect to contend again." But the fact that they didn't advance in the playoffs is never, ever, grounds in itself for concluding that changes are needed. You're talking about a small handful of bad games. The best teams have small handfuls of bad games. They play 162 games for a reason.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Well, this is the kind of thing that fires up the torches. "When the Sox were eliminated in 2016" makes it sound as if you're talking about a team that was mathematically out of contention with weeks to go--not a team that made it to the ALDS but no farther.

A team that makes the playoffs has, by definition, had a successful year. It's disappointing when the team doesn't advance, but responding to that disappointment by calling for the owner to fire the manager and GM and dump half the roster is just bananas.

Now that's not the same as saying that every playoff team is ipso facto well situated for the following season and should stand pat. It often happens that a team has a successful year but nonetheless needs major offseason changes. Maybe the team overachieved during the regular season--or maybe it underachieved for reasons that can be fixed--or maybe it has too many aging veterans on the brink of decline. There could be any number of reasons to say "we can't rest on our laurels here, we need to make some moves if we expect to contend again." But the fact that they didn't advance in the playoffs is never, ever, grounds in itself for concluding that changes are needed. You're talking about a small handful of bad games. The best teams have small handfuls of bad games. They play 162 games for a reason.
The 2016 Red Sox felt very similar to the 2005 Red Sox. We have now become conditioned to consider anything less than a championship a failure. It's not that cut and dry, but the 2016 Red Sox season was ultimately unsatisfying.
 

Rice4HOF

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The 2016 Red Sox felt very similar to the 2005 Red Sox. We have now become conditioned to consider anything less than a championship a failure. It's not that cut and dry, but the 2016 Red Sox season was ultimately unsatisfying.
After back to back last place finishes, in 2016 we lost in the playoffs to a team that was a hit away from winning the World Series, and saw a bunch of young players breaking out before our eyes. There was absolutely nothing unsatisfying about that, unless you can only be satisfied with duckboats and nothing less.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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This is a good point, but as I said in the other thread there was no one in the Sox bullpen in 2016 that gave you Miller or Chapman level confidence in the bullpen. In 04 we had Foulke, 07 we had Paps and 13 we had Koji. Admittedly the 2013 bullpen was a cluster-F and Koji emerged. It's an example of what can happen in a bullpen.

When the Sox were eliminated in 2016, I wanted Henry and Werner to clean house. I wanted Dombrowski gone, Farrell gone and half the team. I don't think Dombrowski and Farrell are bad, but that doesn't mean I think they're particularly good either. Dombrowski's career has been highlighted with "gambles" on huge names (Cabrera, Sale, Price x2), trading prospects and creating mediocre bullpens. He hasn't been at the helm of a winner in 20 years.
I stand by this. I hope I'm wrong, but this team will lose in the ALDS and anything short of Farrell and significant lineup turnover (at least 3 positional player improvements) is unacceptable.
 

AB in DC

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I honestly have no idea what you're talking about. Without Dombrowski dealing for Sale, Kimbrel, and Pomeranz, this is an 80-win team at best.
 

Salem's Lot

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Dombrowski was hired in August of 2015. There is no way you can justify firing a veteran GM after less than three years on the job. Good luck getting anyone good to replace him if you do that.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dombrowski was hired in August of 2015. There is no way you can justify firing a veteran GM after less than three years on the job. Good luck getting anyone good to replace him if you do that.
Especially when he finished 1st both of those years.
 

Hank Scorpio

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I stand by this. I hope I'm wrong, but this team will lose in the ALDS and anything short of Farrell and significant lineup turnover (at least 3 positional player improvements) is unacceptable.
The questions to this are:

- Are three upgrades needed? I’m fairly confident the struggles in this lineup are largely created by a Papi-sized void. Everyone else, especially the younger guys, are exposed. I want Hanley and Moreland both gone, and I think upgrading on those two would suffice. I’m willing to stick with the OF, the rest of the IF, and Vaz otherwise.

- If you DO want to upgrade one of those other positions, then how do you do it? The farm is pretty bare, and trading Devers or Benintendi to acquire a better, but more expensive option isn’t the best use of resources.
 

lexrageorge

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First, Dombrowski is going nowhere anytime soon. 2 consecutive division titles have secured his future.

They do need a power hitter. Probably 2. Not sure we're going to get that, however. I am dreading the offseason narrative of hot takez, however. I see it's started already on this board.
 

dcmissle

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I suppose part of being spoiled is the refusal to accept playoff defeat, never mind that the vast majority of teams do not qualify for the playoffs.

The Astros were manifestly better than the Red Sox. All year. And the Indians were last year.

So does this come down to a temper tantrum because the truism that anything can happen in a short series has not broken in our favor?
 

soxfan121

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I suppose part of being spoiled is the refusal to accept playoff defeat, never mind that the vast majority of teams do not qualify for the playoffs.

The Astros were manifestly better than the Red Sox. All year. And the Indians were last year.

So does this come down to a temper tantrum because the truism that anything can happen in a short series has not broken in our favor?
 

RedOctober3829

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They need somebody like a JD Martinez(which could necessitate a trade of JBJ) or a Jay Bruce as a power hitter in the middle of the lineup to give Betts and Benintendi some help. Andrew McCutchen and Justin Upton are OF candidates to think about if you want to trade JBJ and can't get Martinez They are set at C, 2B, SS, 3B, and without Martinez are set at all 3 OF spots. They desperately need to add a utility player that has a good bat. The current players need to come back next year and perform better.

On the pitching side, they'll need to either re-sign Addison Reed to set up or replace him. The setup names available aren't very good outside of him. The rotation seems to be set in terms of name guys unless Price gets TJS. They'll need depth options.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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I suppose part of being spoiled is the refusal to accept playoff defeat, never mind that the vast majority of teams do not qualify for the playoffs.

The Astros were manifestly better than the Red Sox. All year. And the Indians were last year.

So does this come down to a temper tantrum because the truism that anything can happen in a short series has not broken in our favor?
It comes down to the quality of baseball; they're playing an embarrassing, non-competitive brand of baseball which makes defeat harder to swallow. There's no shame in losing to a fantastic team that had a tremendous season, but how they're losing certainly is depressing. Especially since it's a virtual carbon copy of last year's futility.
 

Twilight

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I stand by this. I hope I'm wrong, but this team will lose in the ALDS and anything short of Farrell and significant lineup turnover (at least 3 positional player improvements) is unacceptable.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but your original post describes not having faith in a relief ace. You had no faith in Kimbrel this year?
 

dcmissle

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It comes down to the quality of baseball; they're playing an embarrassing, non-competitive brand of baseball which makes defeat harder to swallow. There's no shame in losing to a fantastic team that had a tremendous season, but how they're losing certainly is depressing. Especially since it's a virtual carbon copy of last year's futility.
I'm not surprised. They are streaky -- hi highs, low lows. Plus they are very SP dependent.

If someone were to argue that the young stars-in-the-making are immature (didn't learn from last year), or that none of the starting pitchers are capable of putting the team on his shoulders, that's fair. It's also on the players themselves.

(Sale's problem is not a playoff sample size problem; it's a fading late season problem that this season began manifesting itself weeks ago.)
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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They need somebody like a JD Martinez(which could necessitate a trade of JBJ) or a Jay Bruce as a power hitter in the middle of the lineup to give Betts and Benintendi some help. Andrew McCutchen and Justin Upton are OF candidates to think about if you want to trade JBJ and can't get Martinez They are set at C, 2B, SS, 3B, and without Martinez are set at all 3 OF spots. They desperately need to add a utility player that has a good bat. The current players need to come back next year and perform better.
Odd that you state the Sox need a power bat, maybe two — and are set everywhere except CF, 1B, and DH — and come to the conclusion that the Sox need to trade their cost-controlled, gold-glove caliber CF.

Rather than, you know, finding power bats at the two positions where it should be easiest to find power bats.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Since 2003, I'd classify the Red Sox playoff results/emotional roller coaster as such...

2003: Really, really, really wanted to win that fucking ALCS. Was absolutely fucking giddy, until Pedro was left in far too long. My sister, mom, and I were flipping our shit at Grady even before Pedro started getting knocked around. I punched the floor when Boone walked it off, went to my room and didn't emerge til morning. The loss felt inevitable once they tied it up, but I think I was more pissed we lost to the Yankees, again, because of course they fucking win. Again.

2004: Revenge. I want fucking revenge. Fuck the fucking Yankees. Fucking fuck, we lost game one... but that's okay. Game two, fuck, come on... Game three, okay, I'm fucking out. Dave Roberts steals second, WE'RE WINNING THIS GAME. David Ortiz walks it off. WE'RE WINNING THIS SERIES! ....FUCK, please don't let it be Tony Fucking Clark, holy shit... ORTIZ, HOLY SHIT... Damon Grand Slam, is this real life? After the ALCS comeback, I had zero doubt that we would win the World Series. It was inevitable.

2005: "No pitching, injuries , we're not winning shit. I miss Pedro."

2007: "Indians will be tough, but this is our year."

2008: "Rays will be tough, I'm worried about the bottom third of our lineup, but this is our year too. Man, I might hate the Rays more than the Yankees."

2009: "This team doesn't have the feel of the great teams. I don't see it going far."

2013: "I love these guys, but there's no way we get past Detroit. As long as we beat the fucking Rays, who I hate more than the Yankees, I'll be happy. Fuck you, David Price."

2016: "I don't think this team is going to go very deep into October, but I'd love to see one more magical ride to send Papi out on. Of course, he'll probably have to do all the work. I just hope we make things interesting, at least. (Wow, great job guys!)"

2017: "We're fucked. I just hope we outlast the Yankees. And I hope Kluber shatters Aaron Judge's wrist. I hate the Yankees and their fucking persistent Cinderella season so damn much. Who gives a fuck about the Rays?"
 

tonyarmasjr

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The questions to this are:

- Are three upgrades needed? I’m fairly confident the struggles in this lineup are largely created by a Papi-sized void. Everyone else, especially the younger guys, are exposed. I want Hanley and Moreland both gone, and I think upgrading on those two would suffice. I’m willing to stick with the OF, the rest of the IF, and Vaz otherwise.

- If you DO want to upgrade one of those other positions, then how do you do it? The farm is pretty bare, and trading Devers or Benintendi to acquire a better, but more expensive option isn’t the best use of resources.
How do you even upgrade on either Hanley or Moreland? Hanley is under contract next year. Moving him would require eating a whole bunch of money or sacrificing talent from either the ML roster (1 step forward, 1 step back) or a depleted farm system. None of those are very appetizing. There aren't a ton of FA first baseman who would be markedly better than Moreland, I don't think. And I think all of them are going to get paid more than $5.5M. Moreland hit 22 HRs (ranked tied for 25th among 1B) and 34 2Bs (t-6th). 16 guys hit more than 26 HR. So he wasn't that far off from being about average in that respect. He wasn't exactly a black hole in the power department. And his numbers would look better absent the month and a half after he broke his toe in which his wRC+ was 25 and he slugged .244. He's not a great option, but I'm not sure upgrading him will be all that easy or cheap. The FA possibilities (2017 HR/Salary) are Logan Morrison (38/$2.75M), Lucas Duda (30/$7.25M), Yonder Alonso (28/$4M), Eric Hosmer (25/$12.25M), and Carlos Santana (23/$12M).
 

Hank Scorpio

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Not quite sure what Hosmer and Santana will wind up costing, but I'd prefer either one over Moreland, and it's not close.

JD Martinez is the obvious prize this offseason, but as what? An extremely expensive DH? Converted to 1B? LF, with one of Bradley/Benintendi gone?

And if it's the latter, who are you dealing one of the young OFers for? (Is Benintendi+ for Jose Abreu even a remote possibility?)
 

tonyarmasjr

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Not quite sure what Hosmer and Santana will wind up costing, but I'd prefer either one over Moreland, and it's not close.

JD Martinez is the obvious prize this offseason, but as what? An extremely expensive DH? Converted to 1B? LF, with one of Bradley/Benintendi gone?

And if it's the latter, who are you dealing one of the young OFers for? (Is Benintendi+ for Jose Abreu even a remote possibility?)
I'd prefer either of those guys over Moreland, too. But Hosmer will most likely get the biggest deal of the FAs (he's the only one under 30), and he wouldn't address the power issue. Santana could be possible, but are we willing to hand out a $10M/yr FA deal to a 32yo 1B?

I can't believe Martinez will sign anywhere to do anything other than start every day in the OF. Moving Hanley with one of the Bs seems to be a way to try to make that work.
 

SouthernBoSox

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The thing about Eric Hosmer that's so interesting is that he isn't very good and people think he's very good.

You get JD Martinez, you sign Logan Morrison, you get rid of Hanley anyway possible.
 

RedOctober3829

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Odd that you state the Sox need a power bat, maybe two — and are set everywhere except CF, 1B, and DH — and come to the conclusion that the Sox need to trade their cost-controlled, gold-glove caliber CF.

Rather than, you know, finding power bats at the two positions where it should be easiest to find power bats.
It’s not odd at all actually. If you want the best power bar on the market in Martinez he’s a OF/DH. Last time I checked, they aren’t playing 4 OFers. They’re not trading Betts or Benintendi so that leaves Bradley. Great defensively, but not good enough with the bat consistently enough. Add in the fact he’s a Boras client so the odds of him signing here long term are low. Move one of the Bs to CF and they’re set up pretty well.

If you think Hosmer is going to improve them fine. I thought that originally but after further thought he isn’t worth the risk of a big contract.
 

BaseballJones

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It’s not odd at all actually. If you want the best power bar on the market in Martinez he’s a OF/DH. Last time I checked, they aren’t playing 4 OFers. They’re not trading Betts or Benintendi so that leaves Bradley. Great defensively, but not good enough with the bat consistently enough. Add in the fact he’s a Boras client so the odds of him signing here long term are low. Move one of the Bs to CF and they’re set up pretty well.
Martinez is going to make a fortune in free agency. But if the Sox could afford him, sure. I agree that SOMEONE is going to pay Jackie Bradley Jr a dump truck full of money and I think what he brings to the Red Sox isn't worth that, and I'm a guy who really likes JBJ.

Move Bradley for prospects (or one big-time prospect), because they gotta restock the shelves. Move Benny to CF (I'd prefer Betts there, but I think they really like him in RF, since they've put Benintendi in CF when they've sat JBJ). Sign Martinez at whatever cost (ugh, maybe the Sox shouldn't be getting into these big long-term deals!) and put him in left, and then the only other piece, really, is 1b. There just isn't a lot there to be had, sadly. Logan Morrison and his surprising 38 homers are on the FA market this year.

Maybe trade Groome and the prospect you just got for Bradley to the ChiSox for Abreu....

C - Vazquez
1b - Abreu
2b - Pedroia
3b - Devers
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Martinez
CF - Benintendi
RF - Betts
DH - Hanley I guess

Lineup:
RF Betts
CF Benintendi
1b Abreu
LF Martinez
3b Devers
SS Bogaerts
DH Hanley
2b Pedroia
C Vazquez

Having Abreu and Martinez in the middle of that lineup would be a HUMONGOUS boost to the offense. Expensive, but man that lineup would be much better than this year's.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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It just feels so foolish to establish long-term solutions in every outfield position, one year before Bryce Harper hits a market that has just seen the MFY RF won ROY and possibly MVP.

The Sox need to be thinking about 1B and DH, not the outfield. Not yet, at least.

There’s no obvious 1B available in free agency, but trades are still an option - and the Reds and Braves, were 90-loss teams in the middle of a rebuild. My hope is DDski goes hard after Freeman and Votto, and hope one of the two works out.
 

RedOctober3829

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It just feels so foolish to establish long-term solutions in every outfield position, one year before Bryce Harper hits a market that has just seen the MFY RF won ROY and possibly MVP.

The Sox need to be thinking about 1B and DH, not the outfield. Not yet, at least.

There’s no obvious 1B available in free agency, but trades are still an option - and the Reds and Braves, were 90-loss teams in the middle of a rebuild. My hope is DDski goes hard after Freeman and Votto, and hope one of the two works out.
I have a hard time seeing Bryce Harper coming to Boston. If he leaves Washington, the obvious destination is Chicago since RF is all set in the Bronx for the foreseeable future. They have the money to spend, they can put Harper in LF as they would have no problem finding a taker for Kyle Schwarber especially in the AL, and it's no secret that him and Kris Bryant are great friends and have expressed a desire to be teammates.
 

doc

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It just feels so foolish to establish long-term solutions in every outfield position, one year before Bryce Harper hits a market that has just seen the MFY RF won ROY and possibly MVP.

The Sox need to be thinking about 1B and DH, not the outfield. Not yet, at least.

There’s no obvious 1B available in free agency, but trades are still an option - and the Reds and Braves, were 90-loss teams in the middle of a rebuild. My hope is DDski goes hard after Freeman and Votto, and hope one of the two works out.

I'd argue that if they can acquire a legit power bat they do it irregardless of position.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Honest question: who would you rather have for the next 5 years? JD Martinez or Jackie Bradley, Jr? We all know Martinez's defense is below-average, but can Betts and Benintendi cover some of that up? I think so.
What you’re offering is a false choice.

The 2018 Sox have Bradley, and they do not have JD Martinez. They also have a big hole at 1B that does not appear to be Sam Travis-shaped.

If the Sox do acquire JD Martinez in free agency to play LF, I think they are much better served trading Beni than JBJ. Beni hit from the middle of the order all season, so Martinez would replace him both on the field and as used in the lineup; plus, he’s got a much higher trade value. So you could potentially get a better 1B by trading Beni as opposed to JBJ.

I wouldn’t mind adding JD Martinez. But I also wouldn’t take a bet that he hits more than one standard deviation (15 OPS+ points) better than Hanley next year.
 

RedOctober3829

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What you’re offering is a false choice.

The 2018 Sox have Bradley, and they do not have JD Martinez. They also have a big hole at 1B that does not appear to be Sam Travis-shaped.

If the Sox do acquire JD Martinez in free agency to play LF, I think they are much better served trading Beni than JBJ. Beni hit from the middle of the order all season, so Martinez would replace him both on the field and as used in the lineup; plus, he’s got a much higher trade value. So you could potentially get a better 1B by trading Beni as opposed to JBJ.

I wouldn’t mind adding JD Martinez. But I also wouldn’t take a bet that he hits more than one standard deviation (15 OPS+ points) better than Hanley next year.
If you add Martinez and subtract Benintendi, how much better did the offense really get? For 1B, if they sign a big bat at another position why can't they just bring back Moreland?
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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If you add Martinez and subtract Benintendi, how much better did the offense really get? For 1B, if they sign a big bat at another position why can't they just bring back Moreland?
Well, isn’t that sort of comparison exactly what what OPS+ and WAR were created to do?

Martinez: bWAR 4.2, fWAR 3.8, 166 OPS+
Benintendi: bWAR 2.6, fWAR 2.2, 103 OPS+
Bradley: bWAR 2.8, fWAR 2.3, 89 OPS+

LF difference: bWAR 1.4/1.6, fWAR 1.5/1.6, 63-77 OPS+

———

Morrison: bWAR 3.6, fWAR 3.3, 135 OPS+
Moreland: bWAR 2.0, fWAR 0.9, 99 OPS+

1B difference: bWAR 1.6 fWAR 2.4, 36 OPS+

Any move looks about equivalent based on the 2017 numbers. Either signing Martinez to play LF instead of Benintendi OR Bradley, or the far cheaper move of signing Logan Morrison to replace Moreland at 1B, would likely net the 2018 Sox an extra 1-2 wins which is due to increased offense and worse defense. That is, if everyone involved duplicated their 2017 season.

But if the Sox both sign Martinez and trade Beni for Freeman or Votto...

Freeman: bWAR 4.5, fWAR 4.5, 157 OPS+
Votto: bWAR 7.5, fWAR 6.6, 168 OPS+

The Red Sox look like they’d be adding somewhere around 4-7 wins due to significantly improved offense. Each of the upgraded position would be projected to hit at least 4 standard deviations (~60 OPS+) higher than the person they’re replacing. That’s significant, if it repeats.

Then again, I suspect Benintendi will hit better next season, while Morrison will hit worse. I expect roughly similar (within 15 OPS+) production from all the other guys, but think a little slide from Martinez and Votto is likely, due primarily to age considerations, and partly because I think the balls will be measurably less-juiced next year.
 

doc

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This train of thought ends with Hanley Ramirez signed to play LF.
No I was arguing that if the best power bat available is a corner OF then you go after him and reshuffle the OF most likely give up JBJ and move Beni to CF. We could use more power at 1B/DH as well.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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No I was arguing that if the best power bat available is a corner OF then you go after him and reshuffle
Right. Which is exactly what Cherington did when he looked at the offensive futility of the 2014 club, identified the best available bats on the FA market in Panda and Hanley, and signed them both.

What I'm saying the team should do now, is to identify it's greatest positions of need, put together a board of different players who would significantly improve the team at that particular point of need, and then work the phones like crazy to get it. Which is what Toronto did after 2014, when they got Josh Donaldson.

The 2017 Red Sox won the AL East and 93 games, and are bringing back essentially the same group of players. They don't need to reshuffle the deck, they need to stack it.