Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

RedOctober3829

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If Sox beat writers like Speier or Chad Jennings are mentioning Shane Bieber, that gets my antenna up. That one bears watching if this front office is truly intent on making a big move. That is somebody that I would include a Marcelo Mayer or a Tristan Casas for.
 

chrisfont9

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So Bloom was supposed to project that X was a $200m player & sign him for a discount prior to X hitting free agency but Boras was going to...not realize that?

X having full no trade would have complicated the hell out of trying to trade him & so it just kind of is what it is.
If they extended him a year or two ago, wouldn't that have messed up the LT? Not that it was impossible, but to give him "what he's worth" seems like now is a much better time to do that, at least from the LT perspective. Riskier but given his hiring Boras, X was probably going this route regardless. It just is what it is. All this talk about people getting hurt feelings over the last couple years seems pretty meaningless to me.
 

chawson

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Turner to Phillies. Gotta think that helps more than hurts our Bogaerts chances.
 

ehaz

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Yeah I don't know about helping. $300M for a guy who averages almost exactly the same WAR as Bogaerts and is only a couple months younger.
 

ehaz

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I can't see Xander getting fewer than 8 years. Well over $200M total.
 

BaseballJones

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So if it turns out that Bogaerts can actually command a 10-year, $300m deal (or something similar), how many here think the Sox should be the one to offer that deal?

And the whole "they should have locked him up before he hit free agency" thing is hard to swallow given that Boras is his agent. I do think he'd prefer to stay. in Boston, but if LA is going to offer 10/320 or whatever obscene number he might end up getting, and Boston is more in the 7/200 range, then yeah, he's gone. And I wouldn't blame him. Or the Red Sox, actually.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Yeah I don't know about helping. $300M for a guy who averages almost exactly the same WAR as Bogaerts and is only a couple months younger.
An AAV of 27.3M is mildly encouraging in a market where $30M per year seems to be the assumed floor for these SS. It's the years that are a bit nuts.

Would a similar AAV but fewer years get it done with Bogaerts? Something like 7/200M (28.5M AAV) be the ballpark we're looking at?
 

absintheofmalaise

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I know this is a thread for rumors and there's going to be a lot of chaff, but can we do our best to post rumors from people who have some connection to MLB and aren't just click bait. That will go a long way towards cutting down on the back and forth about sources that makes this thread even more difficult to keep up with.

Thanks
 

moondog80

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For those keeping track, today we found out that both the Dodgers and Astros are too cheap to keep their own guys.
 

chrisfont9

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The remaining market, in addition to the Sox, could arguably consist of the Cubs, Twins, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Padres and Giants. You would think the Braves would just re-sign Swanson, but we'll see. The Padres' interest seems super weird given they have Tatis and Kim, so call me skeptical there. It would be even weirder for the Twins to outbid the Sox, and for X to go to the sad-sack Angels. The Giants are focusing on Correa, as they should. That leaves the Dodgers and Cubs as very plausible competition for Bogaerts, with the Padres, Angels and Twins as lurking but less likely. Swap the Braves or Giants back in for whoever nabs their main guy. Either way, I'd say they have to match/outbid at least two other teams in the end.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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An AAV of 27.3M is mildly encouraging in a market where $30M per year seems to be the assumed floor for these SS. It's the years that are a bit nuts.

Would a similar AAV but fewer years get it done with Bogaerts? Something like 7/200M (28.5M AAV) be the ballpark we're looking at?
Possibly, but why would Xander be looking at less than Turner got? He’s a year older. I’d imagine he shooting for 9-10 years, at least for now.
 

EpsteinsGorillaSuit

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Turner gets $300M for the remainder of his career. The Phils get to call that 11 years to keep the AAV down.

Either way, Xander is going to get $300M or very close.
 

jon abbey

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The remaining market, in addition to the Sox, could arguably consist of the Cubs, Twins, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Padres and Giants. You would think the Braves would just re-sign Swanson, but we'll see. The Padres' interest seems super weird given they have Tatis and Kim, so call me skeptical there. It would be even weirder for the Twins to outbid the Sox, and for X to go to the sad-sack Angels. The Giants are focusing on Correa, as they should. That leaves the Dodgers and Cubs as very plausible competition for Bogaerts, with the Padres, Angels and Twins as lurking but less likely. Swap the Braves or Giants back in for whoever nabs their main guy. Either way, I'd say they have to match/outbid at least two other teams in the end.
This is very good analysis IMO, just wanted to add that Morosi thinks Swanson to STL or CHC.
 

deythur

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This is very good analysis IMO, just wanted to add that Morosi thinks Swanson to STL or CHC.
It probably doesn't make a huge difference but Dansby's soon to be wife plays for the Chicago Red Stars of the NWSL and maybe that factors into this a little bit. Dansby there could make some sense.
I think it comes down to the Sox and Giants for Xander.
 

IpswichSox

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If Xander may get ~$300 million, what would a Devers' extension have to look like?

Wonder if Bloom can adjust as the market is moving, or are these numbers just antithetical to Bloom's view of roster construction?

Ugh, at this rate I fear we're going to lose both Xander and Devers.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Possibly, but why would Xander be looking at less than Turner got? He’s a year older. I’d imagine he shooting for 9-10 years, at least for now.
I don't doubt he's shooting for 9-10 years. I'm skeptical that he's going to get it, though. Or maybe I'm skeptical that there are other teams/GMs out there as willing to commit future payroll space to aging/declining players as much as Dave Dombrowski is. Turner's is the longest contract given to a middle infielder. The other three to get 10 years are Seager (started contract in age 28 season), Cano (age 31 season), and ARod (age 25 season). Cano as the oldest to sign is also the biggest disaster among them, and it's worth noting that his contract still isn't technically over as he signed through 2023. I don't believe we're going to see a doubling of 10+ year contracts to middle infielders in one off-season.

In Turner's favor is that he's already shown he can move off of SS if necessary (OF or 2B). That doesn't necessarily apply to Bogaerts (yes, he did play some 3B early on).
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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Yeah I don't know about helping. $300M for a guy who averages almost exactly the same WAR as Bogaerts and is only a couple months younger.
Not sure about that. $300 over eleven years is a managable AAV. Now that Dombrowski has shot his wad, who else goes eleven years for a 30 y.o. shortstop? If X will take 8/240 or 9/270, sign him up.

Or, what Red said better.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Man... Dombrowski loves to pile on big contracts and then head for the hills. He might get another ring in the process but Philly is going to be a bit of mess if they don't graduate lots of very good mL talent to surround those old expensive guys with in 3 years or so.
 

chrisfont9

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Turner gets $300M for the remainder of his career. The Phils get to call that 11 years to keep the AAV down.

Either way, Xander is going to get $300M or very close.
Sort of good news in AAV that a couple close comps are getting under $30m. Maybe 7/$210 guaranteed plus some options gets it done? Does Bogey really want to play until he's 40? I know they all want as much as possible but I could see AAV trumping years. And I can also imagine that we will be sitting here in 2032 talking about how some $30m expiring contract doesn't really matter with a LT threshold set at $400m or whatever. Anyway, I don't see the Turner deal as Earth-shaking for the Sox.
 

ehaz

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Not sure about that. $300 over eleven years is a managable AAV. Now that Dombrowski has shot his wad, who else goes eleven years for a 30 y.o. shortstop? If X will take 8/240 or 9/270, sign him up.

Or, what Red said better.
I guess I have far less confidence than you do in Henry/Chaim's willingness to pay 8/$240.

I think they let him reach FA thinking that they'd have to match something like the Marcus Semien deal.
 

chrisfont9

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I guess I have far less confidence than you do in Henry/Chaim's willingness to pay 8/$240.

I think they let him reach FA thinking that they'd have to match something like the Marcus Semien deal.
Maybe, but have you seen their revenue charts? They routinely are right around $500m per year. There would be literally nothing stopping them from paying this besides some sort of inner greed that should disqualify them from ownership. I know we haven't won a World Series since the halcyon days of 2018, but I am hesitant to see them as being fundamentally unfit to run the team.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/196639/revenue-of-the-boston-red-sox-since-2006/

Chaim was hired to win and it's not his money, so if he thinks this works under the LT -- which seems obvious -- then speculating that he "doesn't want to spend" is probably not right.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Man... Dombrowski loves to pile on big contracts and then head for the hills. He might get another ring in the process but Philly is going to be a bit of mess if they don't graduate lots of very good mL talent to surround those old expensive guys with in 3 years or so.
Already $55M committed to two age 37-38 players for the 2031 season. I'm sure a title in 2023 or 2024 will make Phillies fans feel great in 2030. :rolleyes: :)
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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I guess I have far less confidence than you do in Henry/Chaim's willingness to pay 8/$240.

I think they let him reach FA thinking that they'd have to match something like the Marcus Semien deal.
I dunno. Penciling in 7/175 for X is legit as long as the market stays there. The market has quite plainly changed; hopefully Bloom and Henry change their expectations accordingly.
 

Yaz4Ever

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I dunno. Penciling in 7/175 for X is legit as long as the market stays there. The market has quite plainly changed; hopefully Bloom and Henry change their expectations accordingly.
I would be all over that. I'm hesitant to go over $27M AAV for him, but it's looking more and more likely we'll have to go to $30 (or higher). If he wants a longer deal at a lower AAV, good. If he's expecting 8+ years at a high AAV, we may need to just let him go. Story at SS and Kike/Vazquez at 2nd?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Bloom's creative, but I doubt even he can pull off trading a player who's in another team's system
That was a joke... Philly fires Dombrowski after they win a WS next season, then start to fall apart... Bloom is fired by Boston and brought in to fix the mess which includes trading their best homegrown player.
 

BornToRun

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So if it turns out that Bogaerts can actually command a 10-year, $300m deal (or something similar), how many here think the Sox should be the one to offer that deal?

And the whole "they should have locked him up before he hit free agency" thing is hard to swallow given that Boras is his agent. I do think he'd prefer to stay. in Boston, but if LA is going to offer 10/320 or whatever obscene number he might end up getting, and Boston is more in the 7/200 range, then yeah, he's gone. And I wouldn't blame him. Or the Red Sox, actually.
7/200-ish definitely my ceiling. If he gets something like what you’re guessing then I’m fine saying Godspeed and good luck.
 

chrisfont9

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7/200-ish definitely my ceiling. If he gets something like what you’re guessing then I’m fine saying Godspeed and good luck.
Just curious, why? Not being a jerk (I hope), I just wonder why stop at 7/200 if a bit more actually brings him back? I suspect that people who only want Bogey back for an unlikely smaller deal have the Mayer timeline in mind.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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View: https://twitter.com/Marino_Pepen/status/1599872235384160256?s=20&t=NMQL4veAqvA167joN8nO5A


Bogaerts was hoping for 8 years, his expectations might be changing due to Turner deal.
Geesh, this Baghdad Bob is swooping in at every opportunity. Someone should tell him X already has Boras as his agent, no need to white knight for him. The guy is going to get PAID regardless.

In light of recent contracts my ceiling is probably in the 7/200 neighborhood as well, but if Bogaerts wants an extra few stacks in order to come in less than $100 million away from Turner I'd probably bite the bullet.

Edit: 7/210 would allow X to claim he is getting more per annum than Turner.
 

BornToRun

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Just curious, why? Not being a jerk (I hope), I just wonder why stop at 7/200 if a bit more actually brings him back? I suspect that people who only want Bogey back for an unlikely smaller deal have the Mayer timeline in mind.
Perhaps I should’ve been more precise. If a little bit north of that in money or an extra year gets it done then by all means go for it. I can’t imagine I would lose sleep over an 8th year or a few extra tens of millions if that’s what it took. I just wouldn’t blame the FO if they threw in the towel if it starts to look like 9 years at 30+ is what it would take.
 

moondog80

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I just can't imagine him going for that much lower than Turner at this point. Feels like 8/240ish is where he'll end up - still plenty of teams in the SS market.
Carlos Correa got a lot less than Corey Seager last year. We will see.
 

chrisfont9

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Perhaps I should’ve been more precise. If a little bit north of that in money or an extra year gets it done then by all means go for it. I can’t imagine I would lose sleep over an 8th year or a few extra tens of millions if that’s what it took. I just wouldn’t blame the FO if they threw in the towel if it starts to look like 9 years at 30+ is what it would take.
Thanks. I suspect a lot of people just have a number where the contract stops paying off, absent what the decision means in real life for the Sox. There is a case to be made for papering over the position until Mayer arrives, but the timing for that isn't right, he's a little too far away to even count on him being a productive major leaguer. I tend to think that they need Bogey to keep Devers, and the money doesn't matter too much given their current commitments, but if it doesn't happen then I'd probably move straight to the "wait for Marcelo" camp.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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I just can't imagine him going for that much lower than Turner at this point. Feels like 8/240ish is where he'll end up - still plenty of teams in the SS market.
I would not be happy, but would accept seeing him go for that much or greater. Basically I think there is no reason the final offer from the Sox shouldn't begin with a 2 but the break even point for me isn't far north of 200. If X takes 8/240 elsewhere and I hear we only went to 170 or 180, then I'll be a bit perturbed. Mainly because while Boras talks a great game, I think in the end X would take a "modest" hometown discount (10-15% total contract).
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Thanks. I suspect a lot of people just have a number where the contract stops paying off, absent what the decision means in real life for the Sox. There is a case to be made for papering over the position until Mayer arrives, but the timing for that isn't right, he's a little too far away to even count on him being a productive major leaguer. I tend to think that they need Bogey to keep Devers, and the money doesn't matter too much given their current commitments, but if it doesn't happen then I'd probably move straight to the "wait for Marcelo" camp.
I agree with a lot of this, but I don't see how it makes sense to just wait for Marcelo unless you're just going to completely blow it up for now, which I really don't think is their plan. If they misjudged the market (which it seems like they have) then they need to adjust and figure out how to keep X at 8/230 or whatever (unless they'd prefer Correa at 10/325). Like you, I fear that without X coming back (or maybe Correa), Raffy won't sign an extension, and then either he walks next year or we have to trade him this offseason, either of which is a really bad outcome. Unless we're going to be the Rays or the Royals, we have to be willing to pay market rates for homegrown players when they reach FA eligibility.