Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

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I would not be happy, but would accept seeing him go for that much or greater. Basically I think there is no reason the final offer from the Sox shouldn't begin with a 2 but the break even point for me isn't far north of 200. If X takes 8/240 elsewhere and I hear we only went to 170 or 180, then I'll be a bit perturbed. Mainly because while Boras talks a great game, I think in the end X would take a "modest" hometown discount (10-15% total contract).
Too many suitors to take a hometown discount, particularly given the terms of his first deal. 8/$240 is more likely to be the floor now.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Any rumors on what Senga’s looking for? Given Suzuki and this year’s market, I wouldn’t be surprised by 5/$100. Should the Sox go there? Eovaldi is likely less.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I find it very odd that seemingly every team in Major League Baseball is bidding on Xander. The amount of reports are significantly higher than any other available short stop.

I’m not saying he isn’t being sought after, I’m sure he is, but as some point when you hear this much noise you have to consider the fact it’s being fabricated on the players side.
 

chrisfont9

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I agree with a lot of this, but I don't see how it makes sense to just wait for Marcelo unless you're just going to completely blow it up for now, which I really don't think is their plan. If they misjudged the market (which it seems like they have) then they need to adjust and figure out how to keep X at 8/230 or whatever (unless they'd prefer Correa at 10/325). Like you, I fear that without X coming back (or maybe Correa), Raffy won't sign an extension, and then either he walks next year or we have to trade him this offseason, either of which is a really bad outcome. Unless we're going to be the Rays or the Royals, we have to be willing to pay market rates for homegrown players when they reach FA eligibility.
I don't think it's their plan either but it may just be what happens to them. Sort of doubt that. Anyway, you could probably wring a couple bWAR out of some of the other lesser options available (e.g. Andrus) and nobody would be at all happy but if you can't retain a core guy there's little sense in blocking up the position. Plow the money saved into the Otani sweepstakes next winter!
 

E5 Yaz

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Meanwhile, on another free agent with Red Sox ties:

Rosenthal in The Athletic, via MLBTR:
Christian Vázquez is the second-best catcher available in free agency this offseason, the top option for teams not willing to meet a much loftier asking price and surrender a draft choice for Willson Contreras. It’s little surprise the two-time World Series winner is generating a fair bit of attention from clubs, with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reporting the Padres, Guardians and Twins are all in the mix. Rosenthal also lists the Cubs and Cardinals — each of whom has been previously linked to the veteran backstop — and the incumbent Astros as teams in the bidding.
 

bosox188

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I find it very odd that seemingly every team in Major League Baseball is bidding on Xander. The amount of reports are significantly higher than any other available short stop.

I’m not saying he isn’t being sought after, I’m sure he is, but as some point when you hear this much noise you have to consider the fact it’s being fabricated on the players side.
Maybe, but Boras is also Correa's agent, so if that were the case I'm not sure why he'd be putting so much effort into that for Bogaerts and letting the Correa market be crickets.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Maybe, but Boras is also Correa's agent, so if that were the case I'm not sure why he'd be putting so much effort into that for Bogaerts and letting the Correa market be crickets.
Because demand for Correa doesn’t need to be fabricated.
 

amfox1

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I’m not saying he isn’t being sought after, I’m sure he is, but as some point when you hear this much noise you have to consider the fact it’s being fabricated on the players side.
Of course it is coming from the agent (I would not say it is "fabricated", though). Boras likely wants to get X signed quickly and then have the main SS bidding center around Correa.

EDIT: and given what happened last time, Correa doesn't want to wait too long, either. I'd expect both players to be signed this week.
 

E5 Yaz

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Boras likely wants to get X signed quickly and then have the main SS bidding center around Correa.
Yep, and of course Boras would have wanted Correa to sign before Turner ... because that set a line for them to cross
 

amfox1

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Yep, and of course Boras would have wanted Correa to sign before Turner ... because that set a line for them to cross
I view it the other way. Turner wanted to sign before Correa, because Turner knows that he's not getting more than Correa. I view the Turner signing as slightly bad for Bogaerts, and indifferent for Correa.
 

bosox188

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Because demand for Correa doesn’t need to be fabricated.
Personally I would think there shouldn't need to be much hyping from Boras for either Correa or Bogey. But I'm keeping in mind that Boras and Correa already failed to land the giant contract last offseason. Letting Seager go and get a giant deal first didn't seem to do much to set the market for Correa. Anyway it's a minor point so I won't belabor it.
 

ehaz

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A big part of Correa is that they have to wait for Judge to make his decision since SF is sitting on a huge pile of money and might end up being the highest bidder.
 

E5 Yaz

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I view it the other way. Turner wanted to sign before Correa, because Turner knows that he's not getting more than Correa. I view the Turner signing as slightly bad for Bogaerts, and indifferent for Correa.
That could easily be so, though if Turner knew he wasn't getting as much, it wouldn't seem to matter when he signed. I also tend to believe that Bogarts is more linked to Swanson contractually, instead of being at the Correa-Turner level.
 

amfox1

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Personally I would think there shouldn't need to be much hyping from Boras for either Correa or Bogey. But I'm keeping in mind that Boras and Correa already failed to land the giant contract last offseason. Letting Seager go and get a giant deal first didn't seem to do much to set the market for Correa. Anyway it's a minor point so I won't belabor it.
Correa hired Boras and jettisoned his former agent(s) during the lockout. Seager got his deal before the lockout. When the lockout ended, there weren't many teams with room to do a big deal, which is why Boras negotiated the deal with the Twins and included the opt out after the first year.
 

amfox1

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That could easily be so, though if Turner knew he wasn't getting as much, it wouldn't seem to matter when he signed. I also tend to believe that Bogarts is more linked to Swanson contractually, instead of being at the Correa-Turner level.
Right, which is why the Turner deal at 27.3 mm AAV is slightly bad for Bogaerts, plus PHI was one of the most likely suitors for X.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I find it very odd that seemingly every team in Major League Baseball is bidding on Xander. The amount of reports are significantly higher than any other available short stop.

I’m not saying he isn’t being sought after, I’m sure he is, but as some point when you hear this much noise you have to consider the fact it’s being fabricated on the players side.
Supposedly, the interest in him is high because he's perceived as being signable to a smaller deal than Correa or Turner. For example, MLBTR estimated Correa at 9/288, Turner at 8/268, and Bogaerts at 7/189. We already know that those estimates undershot Turner. I suspect that might impact teams' interest in Bogaerts, and in combination with a number of the remaining teams bidding him up into that Correa/Turner territory, most of them will quickly drop out of the running.
 

mikcou

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Right, which is why the Turner deal at 27.3 mm AAV is slightly bad for Bogaerts, plus PHI was one of the most likely suitors for X.
I dont think you can take the AAV out of the 11 year deal context. 8/220 and 11/300 might have similar AAVs, but they are not similar contracts. The last few years of that deal for Turner aren't worth a ton to the team and are going to drag down the AAV of the deal as compared to an 8-9 year deal.

While Turner's deal was a bit surprising, I still dont think Xander is getting into the high 200s. I've always thought he was a 190-220M guy and still think that if he doesnt sign a Turner special that locks him up until 39/40, he wont get significantly more than the $220M - there are pretty valid reasons to prefer Turner to Xander such that I always expected Turner to get a good 10-20% premium over Xander.
 

mikcou

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Supposedly, the interest in him is high because he's perceived as being signable to a smaller deal than Correa or Turner. For example, MLBTR estimated Correa at 9/288, Turner at 8/268, and Bogaerts at 7/189. We already know that those estimates undershot Turner. I suspect that might impact teams' interest in Bogaerts, and in combination with a number of the remaining teams bidding him up into that Correa/Turner territory, most of them will quickly drop out of the running.
Assuming Turner's deal is a flat payment per year, 11/300 isnt that much different economically than 8/268. Even at a 5% discount rate, were looking at a $10M PV difference. The break even discount rate is around 8%, which honestly is probably lower than what most teams are using given historical revenue growth and the investment options of ownership.
 

ehaz

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Chaim Bloom just got into specifics about Boston’s off-season plan. He repeatedly said Red Sox want to add 7, 8 or 9 players to build a contender in 2023. That includes another reliever, another starter and position players.
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1599914736313073664
The backlash is going to be unbelievable if their “7 to 9 players” end up being of the Corey Kluber and Elvis Andrus variety given statements like this.

Only reason I’m remotely hopeful.
 

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ehaz

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My bet:

1. Joely Rodriguez
2. Chris Martin
3. Corey Kluber
4. Justin Turner
5. Elvis Andrus
6. Michael Conforto
7. Seth Lugo
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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3+ relievers, and a starter? Who do they plan on dumping? Sort of puzzling to tender Taylor and Brasier if that’s the plan, struggling to see how it all fits. And 3-4 position players; assuming we are talking SS, C, DH, and RF?

(Oh, “entering the off-season”, so we’ve already got two of the relievers, that makes sense).
 

Van Everyman

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From the article linked:
The Cubs met with Bogaerts about 10 days ago, a source said. Ross, first-base coach Mike Napoli and former Cubs ace Jon Lester have all been selling Bogaerts on the idea of playing at Wrigley Field and in front of the fans there.

Ross, Napoli and Lester were teammates of Bogaerts on the 2013 Red Sox, who won the World Series.
Should I be annoyed three ex-Sox guys are pitching him to ditch Boston and come to the Cubs? Because I’m kind of annoyed.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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From the article linked:

Should I be annoyed three ex-Sox guys are pitching him to ditch Boston and come to the Cubs? Because I’m kind of annoyed.
Hard to be annoyed with Ross and Napoli, they are employed by the Cubs. But it kind of suggests how Lester feels about the organization, which is disappointing but perhaps not surprising.
 

Otis Foster

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Hard to be annoyed with Ross and Napoli, they are employed by the Cubs. But it kind of suggests how Lester feels about the organization, which is disappointing but perhaps not surprising.
Short digression: I know Lucchino low balled him in the final negotiation, but going back to when he was so ill, he really praised the organization for their support, and particularly for how the RS extended themselves for his parents, when they came to Boston during his treatment. But since he left for the Cubs, he's gone out of his way to diss the RS. Maybe he's just one of those guys who is always looking for a reason to be aggrieved.
 

Diamond Don Aase

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Short digression: I know Lucchino low balled him in the final negotiation, but going back to when he was so ill, he really praised the organization for their support, and particularly for how the RS extended themselves for his parents, when they came to Boston during his treatment. But since he left for the Cubs, he's gone out of his way to diss the RS. Maybe he's just one of those guys who is always looking for a reason to be aggrieved.
Being offered a steep discount from Homer Bailey’s contract is a pretty damn good reason to be aggrieved.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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From the article linked:

Should I be annoyed three ex-Sox guys are pitching him to ditch Boston and come to the Cubs? Because I’m kind of annoyed.
Ross is the manager and Napoli is the first base coach of the Cubs why should either care about the Red Sox? At all.
 

Otis Foster

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Being offered a steep discount from Homer Bailey’s contract is a pretty damn good reason to be aggrieved.
Enough to offset any gratitude you might feel for supporting your parents during a very difficult time? Come on - this isn't just 'it was nice of John Henry to lend me a car while they were here.' My impression is that h's acted like a guy looking for payback since he left here.

But we'll never know for sure, so just an observation you can accept or reject.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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My bet:

1. Joely Rodriguez
2. Chris Martin
3. Corey Kluber
4. Justin Turner
5. Elvis Andrus
6. Michael Conforto
7. Seth Lugo
I'll take the over on that (i.e., I think they'll do better - probably much better - than the low bar you've set). But perhaps you were being sarcastic.Specifically, I don't see them signing Andrus or Conforto (unless they're also signing or trading for another, better OF).
 

BornToRun

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From the article linked:

Should I be annoyed three ex-Sox guys are pitching him to ditch Boston and come to the Cubs? Because I’m kind of annoyed.
On Lester, I kind of agree. I’m not fuming or anything but it’s kind of a “Fine. Be that way.” Sort of deal.