Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

RedOctober3829

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Jul 19, 2005
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deep inside Guido territory
Yup. As the saying goes: money doesn't buy happiness.

im pretty sure that Crawford, Panda etc regret taking the most instead of where they (and their family) would feel most comfortable.


Some players cant handle the constant bright lights that comes with playing for a large media/market team like NY or BOS. Where every mistake is amplified 10x what it should be compared to other markets.
This is great and all, but you’ve got to pay for top talent because that’s what wins out in the end. Let’s see if Bloom and Co. want to do that.
 

mikeford

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Aug 6, 2006
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Mut on WEEI tonight complained that Bellinger is exactly the kind of guy the Sox should be really interested in. Said he had a "down" year last year.

Um, Mut....

2019: 47 hr, 115 rbi, 1.035 ops, 167 ops+, 8.6 bWAR, MVP - supermegastar
2020: 12 hr, 30 rbi, .789 ops, 112 ops+, 1.5 bWAR - Covid year but huge drop in rate stats
2021: 10 hr, 36 rbi, .542 ops, 44 ops+, -1.5 bWAR - epic disaster
2022: 19 hr, 68 rbi, .654 ops, 78 ops+, 1.2 bWAR - not good

It's not just that he had a "down" year last year. He's been an abject disaster for two straight seasons, and the one before that, while not terrible, was a HUGE step down from his MVP year. This is three not so good years in a row. NOT the kind of guy you want to spend nearly $20 million on.

It's possible that another year removed from his injury that he'll be better, and I wouldn't have minded the Sox taking a $10 million risk on him, but Mut...come on man.
Didnt Bellinger have the same shoulder injury as Adrian Gonzalez that led to AGons career swirling the bowl basically?

Pretty sure Bellinger just is the 1.5 WAR guy now and the MVP version of him is dead.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Now that the Guardians have locked up Josh Bell, Cleveland president Chris Antonneti says he's in pursuit of free agent outfielder Aaron Judge:

"I'd be happy to say 'hello' to him. He's a really nice guy. I would encourage him to go to the National League."
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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This is as aggressive of a free agent market as I can ever remember following.
Yes, but it also just seems like the Rangers, Mets and Phillies so far, who happened to be the biggest and most aggressively spending teams last season.

Philadelphia has spent $387M on three players so far. Texas has spent $240M on three players. The Mets have spent $189M on two.

Those teams all basically set the market last winter too, but it settled down a bit after that.

The Padres, Angels and Mariners have also made some deals, but they’re typically among the more active front offices.

All of which is to say, I’m not thoroughly convinced that the market stays this aggressive. I think Judge and Correa will be whoppers and it looks like the Cubs badly want to spend on a shortstop, but maybe it chills out a bit now that PHI/TEX/NYM have done their thing? Haniger is a little higher than I expected, but the Abreu, Bell, Rizzo, Anderson, Eflin, Gibson and Martin deals all look alright to me.
 

Sin Duda

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I didn't mean to imply that I'm a better or a smarter fan. I'm sorry if my thoughts came off that way. I know there are many people on this board who are a hell of a lot smarter than I am.

The thing that bothers me is that it's only December 6 and yet we've got people on here and in the media using Bloom's relative inaction as proof that ownership isn't committed to winning in 2023. All I'm saying is that we should wait a little longer before making that assessment. I don't think any of the contracts that have been tendered are a great fit for the 2023 Red Sox. I'd like to see a few more chips fall first.

Ultimately, you're probably right - I should refrain from sharing these thoughts in a rumors thread. No disrespect intended.
This is oddly mature for a SoSH post.
 

LogansDad

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As frustrating as it is to watch some of these guys come off the board, I don't think I've seen a single one that hasn't made me think, "I'm kind of glad it isn't the Sox on the hook for that".
 

GB5

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Aug 26, 2013
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Why would Chaim, who generally doesn’t offer much about what the Sox are trying to do, come out with the statement about 7-9 new players. Why box yourself in like that if players you assumed were part of that 7-9 are potentially signing elsewhere.
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
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Why would Chaim, who generally doesn’t offer much about what the Sox are trying to do, come out with the statement about 7-9 new players. Why box yourself in like that if players you assumed were part of that 7-9 are potentially signing elsewhere.
Well if you lose at least 7-9 players from last year's team then you need to replace them with new players, so he isn't really saying much if you do the math.
 

Van Everyman

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Story says otherwise.
The Red Sox were in on Zach Eflin (Orlando native, Rays), Mitch Haniger (San Jose native, Giants), Andrew Heaney (OK native, Rangers) and Tommy Kahnle (NY native, Yankees) in the last few days.

Geography is winning the Winter Meetings.
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1600316175095070720


Again. Money is not the end all be all. Location is important for players and unless you want to blame bloom for the sox geographical location (which i am sure some talking heads will try and do)
If geography is the big driver here, the Sox should have the inside track on Rich Hill and (checks notes) Carlos Peña.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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34 of the 40 free agent hitters who put up at least 2 fWAR last season are still free agents. Everything is chill.

Every competent team should be in on every cromulent baseball player. If our in is less than another team's, so be it.
 

Scoops Bolling

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View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1600373852764508161?s=20&t=_muZn1SG_DN3CiLlC0KTSA


Who would you rather sign?

- Eovaldi at the same deal 4/$68M
- Kodai Senga at 5/$100
- Carlos Rodon at 5/$150
Rodon-->Eovaldi-->Senga

Given the market, giving Rodon 5 years isn't insane and he's the only truly elite arm left. Eovaldi comes down to the what the medical staff says, but if they think he's healthy and will stay such, I prefer the known quantity there to the unproven Senga. But, I have been wrong about a number of Japanese players in recent years, so this wouldn't be the first time I was too pessimistic about how their numbers would hold up.
 

jon abbey

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I think the Rodon market is probably closer to 6/180 at this point.
 

jon abbey

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Sorry, I want to amend that guess to 6/168, and I think he will announce tomorrow, shortly after Judge.
 

jon abbey

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That sounds… well informed.
"Although neither club has put a timetable on a potential decision, the feeling around the Winter Meetings is that Judge could sign as soon as Wednesday. Despite a report that he was going to come to the Meetings, Judge was not spotted at the Hyatt on Tuesday.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said Monday that he and Judge’s representatives had exchanged multiple proposals. Meanwhile, the Giants reportedly offered Judge a nine-year deal in the neighborhood of $360 million.

While star free agents such as Trea Turner, Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander have agreed to huge deals in recent days, Judge’s decision will have a direct impact on what happens with other free agents, including Carlos Correa, Carlos Rodón, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson and Brandon Nimmo.
“Everybody is just waiting for Judge to sign,” one source said. “Once he goes, the dominoes might start falling fast.”"

https://www.mlb.com/news/winter-meetings-awaiting-aaron-judge-decision?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share
 

JM3

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I am not doubting that number, which sounds pretty reassuring, but also worth noting that Fangraphs only projects 11 remaining FA hitters for 2+ WAR in 2023, and that includes Jean Segura and Omar Narvaez.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=0
This is where I got the info from. I had to count, though, & I intentionally didn't count Joc as a free agent due to the QO acceptance.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2022-23-free-agents-by-position
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I take these local signings as a negative vote on the Red Sox. If Red Sox roster construction was more advanced, and it was a more obvious path to the World Series, he and or Haniger would’ve signed with the Sox.
Catching up from last night, but this jumped out at me as illogical. If the Sox roster construction was "more advanced" and had a more obvious path to the World Series, they probably wouldn't need an Andrew Heaney or Mitch Haniger anyway. Or at least they wouldn't be players people would be upset to have missed out on.

On another note, it seems like some think that because the talk has been that the Sox have more payroll flexibility and can spend more this off-season, that they're the only ones who can do so. The whole league is flush with cash. The Sox payroll space doesn't guarantee them anything. They still need to be prudent with spending rather than blow their wad to outbid other teams for the likes of Mitch Haniger or Andrew Heaney or Zak Eflin, merely to give the appearance of "doing something."

Plenty of time left. Plenty of players left on the board. Not to mention trades are still a possibility. The "7-9 new players" is still very much in play despite Mitch Haniger no longer being available.
 

JM3

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It appears MLB added 2021 WAR and 2022 WAR together.
Lol yup, my bad. The #s seemed high but I was half asleep.

General point about the vast majority of the best FA hitters still being available still stands, though.
 
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billy ashley

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Jul 15, 2005
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These contracts are insane.

Love Judge as a player, understand why he got the money he got.. But it still causes a double take. Probably like the deal more than some others this off-season, but man, handing out 9 year contracts to guys Judge's age and profile feels kind of nuts (I say as someone who believes Judge just concluded one of the best 25 seasons of the last half century, I like him a lot as a player).
 

chawson

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It’s a lot of money and better that the Yankees are paying $40M AAV over 10 instead of $30M over 7 to keep him, but I hardly see this as a good thing for Sox fans. It’s the best hitter in baseball and he’s staying in New York.

Besides, this opens up a lane for the Giants to grab Correa and the Cubs to grab Bogaerts.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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I feel like that contract will not age well.
$108M for three players now.
I don’t think that contract is going to age well at all which is why I’m glad the Sox were never really involved. He’s had a lot of different injuries and with his massive size will probably continue to have them as he ages. The last 3-4 years of that contract could be really rough for NY.
 

JM3

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If you're going to be giving out stupid money, Judge seems like a pretty smart guy to give it to.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Frankly, $40 AAV in this market seems far from crazy. James Tallion, a pitcher who isn’t good, just got $17 AAV.
 

ehaz

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Will the length of Judge's deal affect the deal Bogaerts ultimately gets?
If anything affects Bogaerts’ deal length, it will be his defense and statcast hitting numbers from this year. Unlike Judge, he’s been remarkably durable.
 

billy ashley

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This issue isn't at all the AAV. It's tat he's about to turn 31, and historically has been a player with below-average contact rates. The fact that he corrected that turned him from an excellent to slightly overrated player to a baseball God last season (in fairness, the progression wasn't all last season, he's been trending lower Ks for a while).

The fear I would have if I'm the Yankees is that players with low contact rates and high power tend to not decline but crater when they start to lose it. I'm not saying, I think Judge is any more doomed than any other person over 9 years, but 9 years is a long time. If he doesn't have a gradual decline and instead follows the classic old man skills decline pattern (Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, etc.) that's a lot of money.
 

chawson

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And Judge going to SF would've opened up a lane for the Yankees to get Bogaerts. That's how this works.
This kind of statement is unfalsifiable, though I see your point. But I don’t think the Yankees would be in on Bogaerts — because of their young shortstops, his defense, his batted-ball profile in that park, and their overly right-handed lineup. And I don’t think he goes there, with his personality.

I see the Orioles as a likelier bidder in X than NYY.
 

jon abbey

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This kind of statement is unfalsifiable, though I see your point. But I don’t think the Yankees would be in on Bogaerts — because of their young shortstops, his defense, his batted-ball profile in that park, and their overly right-handed lineup. And I don’t think he goes there, with his personality.

I see the Orioles as a likelier bidder in X than NYY.
Yeah, I don't think NY was going after any of the big SSs, with or without Judge. SF is going to go after Correa hard, though, I think.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Nov 21, 2005
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This issue isn't at all the AAV. It's tat he's about to turn 31, and historically has been a player with below-average contact rates. The fact that he corrected that turned him from an excellent to slightly overrated player to a baseball God last season (in fairness, the progression wasn't all last season, he's been trending lower Ks for a while).

The fear I would have if I'm the Yankees is that players with low contact rates and high power tend to not decline but crater when they start to lose it. I'm not saying, I think Judge is any more doomed than any other person over 9 years, but 9 years is a long time. If he doesn't have a gradual decline and instead follows the classic old man skills decline pattern (Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, etc.) that's a lot of money.
Based on Stanton's age (33), general health (lots of injuries), and years left on his contract (five more years), the Judge deal could very likely result in the Yankees having a right handed DH who underperforms their contract for the next 9 seasons. I would guess that Judge + Stanton will not come close to repeating their combined stats from last year at any point over the next 5 years.