Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

Ok, I kind of agree, but a large % of Story’s fWAR is coming from his defense…and many think he can no longer play SS. If he is the SS, why doesn’t the team just say that, though?

As far as Reynolds goes, if the Pirates want a top pitching prospect, the Sox won’t be able to get him without giving up Bello. That’s kind of the problem with pulling off a big trade- most teams want high ceiling pitching in return and the Sox don’t really have that.
Probably because of concerns about Story's arm. The team may be like 80% confident that it will work out, but without actually putting it to the test in actual game situations there's at least some possibility that the arm issue will make it non-viable. The team looks worse if they announce they are fully committing to Story at SS and then it turns out in Spring training that it's not going to work out. It's going to look bad either way, but it'll definitely look worse if the team expresses full confidence in Story as a plan and it turns out to not be viable.

Story is also a big enough name that if they commit to him publicly and then manage to swing a deal for another starting SS it'd risk alienating Story.

I suspect the plan is to pursue opportunities to acquire a starter, but if that doesn't work out Story will be plan A with Hernandez or filler as plan B.

Now why don't they say that publicly? I'd guess because it looks like a vote of no confidence in Story, and in the event that the team wants to try Story at short they'd rather go into that experiment with as clean a slate as possible.

As a fan it's frustrating, but I can see why they are doing it especially given the outright hostility they are getting from the fanbase and media. Without commenting on whether I think that hostility is earned, I think it's easy to understand why they'd keep mum if they expect anything they say to be interpreted in as negative a light as possible (and let's not pretend that isn't exactly what would happen).
 

DeadlySplitter

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https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/12/24/sports/carlos-correas-stunning-about-face-shows-an-agreement-is-start-signed-contract-is-real-deal/

In the November elections, Massachusetts voters approved a “Millionaire Tax,” bumping up state income taxes in 2023 from 5 percent to 9 percent on annual income over $1 million. Baseball players pay state income tax based on the location of their games, meaning that Red Sox players pay Massachusetts state income tax on half of their salaries.
News of the increase came as a shock to Kiké Hernández.
“Well, [expletive] me. This is news to me,” Hernández said by phone. “I’m surprised my financial guy hasn’t reached out to me to tell me that. I will 100 percent, as soon as I hang up with you, reach out to him.”
 

jbupstate

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Regarding Story’s arm at shortstop…. Article in the Athletic-
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It’s Story’s arm strength that’s at issue. According to Statcast, the 30-year-old Story threw at 79.1 mph in 2021 from shortstop while with the Rockies, 52nd of 58 shortstops with a minimum of 100 throws that season. He also missed time that year with elbow inflammation. Last year, upon moving to second base, Story’s average velocity on throws dipped to 76.1 mph, 61st among 70 qualified players.

By comparison, Bogaerts’ throws clocked in at 82.1 mph last season, 34th among shortstops, while fellow free agent shortstop Dansby Swanson averaged 79.2 mph on throws, 48th out of 50 shortstops.

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Somehow Swanson is a wizard at SS but Story is unplayable due to noodle arm. If Story has an elbow condition doesn’t that condition still exist at 2B? Play Story at SS and be done with it. Segura at 2B.
 

cantor44

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But it didn’t blow up in his face. It was a gamble that paid off handsomely. The Sox were in the hunt because of what Bloom did right. Added Renfroe, Kike, Pivetta and Whitlock. The bullpen with familiar names (that sucked in 2022) was great. Some moves definitely did not work Marwin, Cordero, Santana.

The mix worked in 2021 but exploded spectacularly in 2022 due to injury timing and luck. Bloom put together a team without Betts, an injured Sale and the great Vazquez sucking royally that eliminated the Yankees and came within two games of the WS and people find faults. At the same time adding lottery tickets to lower system and clearing payroll.

The 2022 gambles - JBJ trade, Paxton signing, Franchy at 1B and Xander opt out management were not good.
While I think Bloom fell short at the deadline in 2021 (and again in 2022 for opposite reasons), you are right in that he made some really good off-season moves for support players in 2021 - perhaps his best work. He has a mixed record, IMO, though one characterized by discomfort with the boldest/riskiest decisions, and a seeming bad read on how the FA market might develop. He didn't wanna really go for it in 2021, or really sell in 2022, or ever really sign any major FA (Story was the least expensive of that class' name free agents).

Whether he is constrained from above or by his own temperament (or a bit of both), the outcome remains the same: a cautious team with a declining payroll, and declining talent.
 

simplicio

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Regarding Story’s arm at shortstop…. Article in the Athletic-
————————————————————————
It’s Story’s arm strength that’s at issue. According to Statcast, the 30-year-old Story threw at 79.1 mph in 2021 from shortstop while with the Rockies, 52nd of 58 shortstops with a minimum of 100 throws that season. He also missed time that year with elbow inflammation. Last year, upon moving to second base, Story’s average velocity on throws dipped to 76.1 mph, 61st among 70 qualified players.

By comparison, Bogaerts’ throws clocked in at 82.1 mph last season, 34th among shortstops, while fellow free agent shortstop Dansby Swanson averaged 79.2 mph on throws, 48th out of 50 shortstops.

——————————————————————————
Somehow Swanson is a wizard at SS but Story is unplayable due to noodle arm. If Story has an elbow condition doesn’t that condition still exist at 2B? Play Story at SS and be done with it. Segura at 2B.
More likely, it's not so much "he'd make a bad shortstop cause he can't throw hard" and more "he's had elbow issues previously so how can we minimize risk of losing him for an extended period of time due to that?"
 

jbupstate

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More likely, it's not so much "he'd make a bad shortstop cause he can't throw hard" and more "he's had elbow issues previously so how can we minimize risk of losing him for an extended period of time due to that?"
I get that but throwing 76 mph from 2B seems to be just as much a risk of injury. On top of that I think he passed a physical to secure the contract.

Feels like a funky narrative that explains why he didn’t get signed quickly last year. It’s the mph of Swanson that I find interesting
 

Tim Salmon

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The Mets might move back on Correa because they now don't like his medical reports either, although there are conflicting reports on this. Do we offer him two years at 70 million and see if he sniffs?
Whatever is showing up on his physical exams isn't going away, so I'd be very surprised if Correa was willing to take another short-term "prove it" deal at $35M/year. If that happens at this point, then his medicals must be legitimately terrifying.
 

simplicio

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I get that but throwing 76 mph from 2B seems to be just as much a risk of injury. On top of that I think he passed a physical to secure the contract.

Feels like a funky narrative that explains why he didn’t get signed quickly last year. It’s the mph of Swanson that I find interesting
Swanson also managed to have 21 OAA at that velocity this year, indicating that other aspects of his game (more than) make up for for his arm. When Story was throwing that speed in 2021, he was -7 OAA, which improved to 10 OAA moving to 2nd.
 

simplicio

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Especially when it coincides with the last 2 years of Sale's deal and we didn't get under the tax threshold this year.
 

LogansDad

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I get that but throwing 76 mph from 2B seems to be just as much a risk of injury. On top of that I think he passed a physical to secure the contract.

Feels like a funky narrative that explains why he didn’t get signed quickly last year. It’s the mph of Swanson that I find interesting
I am not a professional athlete, but I do have elbow/shoulder issues in my throwing arm. One thing that helps is ensuring that my arm is in the proper slot when I throw, and, when playing softball (I know, I know... I'm in my mid-40's, give me a break here) I can do that when playing 2B, but you don't necessarily have the time to do that on a normal basis at SS. For this reason, I do believe that injury risk is higher at SS than at 2B, but the team may feel differently.

I was actually on the "he can't throw hard" side of the argument earlier in the year, but have come around to arm strength not being as important as I wanted it to be.... Story's injury history does make me prefer having him at 2B, though.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Why? He isn’t an upgrade of the guy we had last year and is damaged goods. How does having Correa on a 2 year accelerate the rebuild?

Two year higher priced contracts should be for elite mercenary pitchers that get you over the top.
It’s an obvious clean transition to Mayer.
 

radsoxfan

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If Correa is truly damaged goods and no one will sign him to a long term deal, 1/40 sounds reasonable to me (assume we are actually trying to compete in 2023). $8M/WAR, seems a decent bet to be a 5 WAR guy. Maybe 2/80 and give him an opt out if you have to. Otherwise, I'd pass.
 

jbupstate

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At $100m? Give me a defensive, no hit SS and find me a young RF to invest that money on.

Correa and Boras will work with the Mets to adjust some risk out of that contract. The parties need to save face.
 

mikcou

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Why? He isn’t an upgrade of the guy we had last year and is damaged goods. How does having Correa on a 2 year accelerate the rebuild?

Two year higher priced contracts should be for elite mercenary pitchers that get you over the top.
I think you have a real uphill battle to argue that Xander is a better player than Correa. There's a reason there are a number of teams offering him $300M+ and no one offered Xander that much (and being charitable to Xander no one other than SD went over 225-230M). Correa is a better player.

Edit: I wouldnt do that deal either, because I still think the team is good enough in that window, but Correa is clearly better player on the field than Xander.
 

simplicio

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I think you have a real uphill battle to argue that Xander is a better player than Correa. There's a reason there are a number of teams offering him $300M+ and no one offered Xander that much (and being charitable to Xander no one other than SD went over 225-230M). Correa is a better player.
"Better" is debatable. Younger is not.
 

radsoxfan

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Agreed in a vacuum have to assume Correa is a better bet in 2023. Assuming his leg is still attached.

Fangraphs has Correa at 1 WAR better than Xander next season (5.5 vs 4.5). Correa also 2 years younger.
 

mikcou

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I was commenting on the 2/$100m. What’s the difference between the two over the next two years?
What do you think Xander would have gotten if he was willing to take a 2 year deal? It certainly would not have been $50-$55M that his AAV suggests. Probably $85-$90M. Theres a reason teams dont do short term deals for top talent - they are absurdly expensive.
 

jbupstate

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What do you think Xander would have gotten if he was willing to take a 2 year deal? It certainly would not have been $50-$55M that his AAV suggests. Probably $85-$90M. Theres a reason teams dont do short term deals for top talent - they are absurdly expensive.
Don’t have an answer but if I had a two year bet I would take Xander at Fenway. Can’t go wrong either way but I take Xander because of better health.
 

Apisith

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The Twins did a medical last year, right? Heyman said they offered $280m this year. So that should be the floor, shouldn’t it?
 

jon abbey

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The Twins did a medical last year, right? Heyman said they offered $280m this year. So that should be the floor, shouldn’t it?
Although there were rumors at the time that the Twins were offering that because they knew it wouldn’t be enough and they didn’t really want to go all out for him.

Also I read that the news of the Giants physical had the Twins pursuit of him on hold, they were in no rush to jump back in like Cohen was.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Red Sox view the rotation as an area of depth??!? Even though they haven’t yet added a starter even though that was one of their goals? I’m really confused.

Merry Christmas, everyone!
 

SouthernBoSox

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The problem with where the Red Sox currently stand is we are dealing with a very heavy seller market due to the fact so many team’s view themselves as competitors.

So the problem with that is if you trade someone of major league value there is very little chance you are going to get an MLB player in return.

And I’ve become repetitive, but this “in between” nature the Red Sox have been in has lead to some challenging decisions the last 16 months. The lack of direction has really hampered the organization.
 

Harry Hooper

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If they can dump him at a 50% discount or less, I’ll drive him to the airport. Imagine being able to do that without packaging him up with Devers?
After all the ups and downs of Sale's time with the Sox, I'd rather bet on pulling an '86 Bill Walton season out of him in Boston.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Given the current payroll status selling Sale for money would be criminal.

And if he does bounce back he’d be worth a ton at the deadline vs. this moment. You’d need legit player value in return to move him right now. Not money, not a flyer.
 

simplicio

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If they can dump him at a 50% discount or less, I’ll drive him to the airport. Imagine being able to do that without packaging him up with Devers?
I realize the last couple years of injuries have been frustrating, but he's still looked like a good pitcher when he's on the mound, and the injuries don't seem to be indicative of anything that would change that. His projections for next year have him being worth his full contract.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Red Sox view the rotation as an area of depth??!? Even though they haven’t yet added a starter even though that was one of their goals? I’m really confused.

Merry Christmas, everyone!
I'm viewing this as Heyman spouting his usual BS.... but yeah, Red Sox have a glut of #5-6 starters!
 

snowmanny

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Red Sox view the rotation as an area of depth??!? Even though they haven’t yet added a starter even though that was one of their goals? I’m really confused.

Merry Christmas, everyone!
If you add enough relievers it is like adding a starter. Or maybe one of your relievers can now be a starter. Merry Christmas!
 

BringBackMo

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Red Sox view the rotation as an area of depth??!? Even though they haven’t yet added a starter even though that was one of their goals? I’m really confused.

Merry Christmas, everyone!
Reacting to every tweet in this way is really unhelpful. Nothing from this front office has leaked at all. So it’s safe to assume this is probably not coming from the Sox at all. Read it closely and you’ll see it starts with the fact that other teams are making inquiries. The rest, from Heyman, is best considered conjecture.