Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

chawson

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Last off-season I tried to think of ways the Sox could "buy" Adell through absorbing a bad contract. He seemed like a great candidate for that at the time in that he'd lost a lot of the hype but there was still a pretty could chance he could be a good low average/obp high power player with acceptable defense. Someone akin to Hunter Renfroe, albeit with more upside.

I think at this point it's questionable if he'll even be a 40 hit skill guy. He's probably a DFA candidate for the Angels, given the number of teams with 40 man crunches, right now.

I'd be happy to take him on for Duran, but honestly, I don't think either should be given a shot to start going into next year. They're both too talented to completely dismiss (Adell with the much better pedigree and also being younger) but I woudln't bet on either being much of anything at this point.
I'd love to take a chance on him. Maybe the Angels prefer only one project-type in the outfield with Moniak, who can play CF and better fits the handedness of Ward/Trout/Renfroe/Phillips. Seems like they've decided to go for it, so it's possible they have better uses for the 40-man roster spot than Adell.
 

moondog80

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Man, SI has fallen off a fucking cliff.

The only way Sanchez has been "linked" to the Red Sox is by a blogger who mentions the Sox among a few times who could be interested. This is just like that persistent Marlins trade thing. It's one random guy's opinion that everyone links back to like it was real breaking news. It's fantasy. I don't think Bloom goes anywhere near Gary Sanchez.
I was mildly interested when I thought Sanchez might have a decent platoon split. But he doesn't. Pass.
 

nvalvo

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You might be right but Dalbec might have an end of the bench role due to his versatility and the ability to hit LHP. Not sure why Dalbec can’t spell Casas at 1B and Turner remains at DH.

If he’s on the roster. Sox are light on infielders and Dalbec has played around the infield. He’s cheap and if he hits at all his value as trade bait could rise.
None of this is wrong, but I'd have to imagine that Dalbec has a lot more value to a club that isn't competing and has an opening at 3B, and thus should want to see if Dalbec can flourish with a different hitting coach, etc., and emerge as a real starter. 70 power, playable defense at 3B, and a pretty good batting eye are a decent set of carrying tools if he can get the hit tool to within range of acceptable, and if I'm running the Oakland A's, say, I might well be interested. Jace Peterson is their incumbent at 3B: a 32 year old utilityman, and then they have Zack Gelof in AAA.

The play for Oakland would be to acquire Dalbec, give him 500ish PA, tilted towards LHP (Peterson is a LHH), hope he pops 25 HR and then either keep him or flip him when Gelof is ready.
 

JM3

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https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/.amp/news/red-sox-reportedly-have-discussed-trade-for-intriguing-al-central-shortstop-pat3

Would Duran for Mondesi work for both teams? Both guys could probably benefit from a fresh start on a new team..
Mondesi is an odd one. He was 3rd in MLB in sprint speed in 2016 & top 12 through 2020. Then in '21 he dropped to 99th & then missed most of '22 with a torn ACL going back to the base on a pickoff throw.

He hasn't had a good hitting season since his age 22 season in 2018. Over his career he has a 4.4% walk rate & a 30.2% strikeout rate.

He would have to be back to being super fast for me to want to take a flyer on someone with that hitting profile. He's making $3m this year & is a free agent next year, so there's not a ton of upside even if he does get it together. But if the price is right (like basically free), & the medicals are good, sure.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I'd love to take a chance on him. Maybe the Angels prefer only one project-type in the outfield with Moniak, who can play CF and better fits the handedness of Ward/Trout/Renfroe/Phillips. Seems like they've decided to go for it, so it's possible they have better uses for the 40-man roster spot than Adell.
Yeah, I doubt Duran would have much value to them. I would see they'd take someone like Josh Taylor for him.
 

ehaz

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Until Story comes back the starting lineup will be really sketchy vs lefties. The McClanahan/Rodon games could get ugly.

I imagine the regular lineup could look something like this.

LF - Yoshida
DH - Turner
3B - Devers
RF - Verdugo
CF - Hernandez
1B - Casas
2B - Arroyo
C - McGuire
SS - Andrus/Iglesias/??

vs LHP:

LF - Yoshida
CF - Hernandez
3B - Devers
1B - Turner
RF - Refsnyder
DH - Dalbec
2B - Arroyo
C - Wong
SS - Andrus/Iglesias/??

There's going to be a ton of pressure on Yoshida to hit right away. If he can hit LHP that would go a very long way. I think at very least you need another RHH OF who can credibly play CF + a SS. Another infielder to play the utility role or compete with Arroyo for 2B would be ideal. Something like Adam Duvall + Andrus/Iglesias (or a trade for Mondesi/Rosario).
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Mondesi is an odd one. He was 3rd in MLB in sprint speed in 2016 & top 12 through 2020. Then in '21 he dropped to 99th & then missed most of '22 with a torn ACL going back to the base on a pickoff throw.

He hasn't had a good hitting season since his age 22 season in 2018. Over his career he has a 4.4% walk rate & a 30.2% strikeout rate.

He would have to be back to being super fast for me to want to take a flyer on someone with that hitting profile. He's making $3m this year & is a free agent next year, so there's not a ton of upside even if he does get it together. But if the price is right (like basically free), & the medicals are good, sure.
One of those situations where I'd be very interested if the Royals don't want to trade him, but if they do I'm a little sus.
 

nvalvo

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There's going to be a ton of pressure on Yoshida to hit right away. If he can hit LHP that would go a very long way. I think at very least you need another RHH OF who can credibly play CF + a SS. Another infielder to play the utility role or compete with Arroyo for 2B would be ideal. Something like Adam Duvall + Andrus/Iglesias (or a trade for Mondesi/Rosario).
He didn't have big splits in Japan, per this site — use a browser that can do translation.
 

chrisfont9

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In the 1986 post-season, you would have chosen Scott over ANYONE
Hurst would be a close second, but yeah. And I'm not just playing the results, Hurst was red-hot coming in. I'll never forget him shutting out the Jays for the almost-clincher. Before a postseason run that included two brilliant WS starts and a third CG win in the ALCS, he had a run of four CG (two shutouts) in September, plus a meaningless throwaway last start against the Yankees.
 

JM3

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Going by the Spotrac estimates on all the new ones:

Arroyo - Estimate $2.35m, Actual $2m, gain $350k
Brasier - Estimate $2.31m, Actual $2m, gain $310k
McGuire - Estimate $1.07m, Actual $1.225m, loss $155k
Pivetta - Estimate $5.87m, Actual $5.35m, gain $520k
Verdugo - Estimate $7.17m, Actual $6.3m, gain $870k

Net gain: $1,895,000

& this is what Spotrac had...

2023 Active Competitive Balance Tax Totals
Competitive Balance Tax Threshold $233,000,000
Active AAV/Payroll $162,070,833
Est. Arbitration AAV/Payroll $18,769,382
Est. Pre-Arbitration AAV/Payroll $5,565,000
Estimated Player Benefits $16,500,000
Estimated Minor League Contracts $2,250,000
Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool Contribution $1,666,666
Proj. Tax Payroll $182,487,499
Proj. Tax Payroll (Active + Est. Arb + Est. Pre-Arb) $206,821,881


https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/?ref=trending-pages

So that looks like they would now have about $28m under the threshold, but this differs so much from other #s I've seen that I don't really trust it?
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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So that looks like they would now have about $28m under the threshold, but this differs so much from other #s I've seen that I don't really trust it?
I think Spotrac is the least accurate of the sites that track this, but they are similar to Cot's or Fangraphs.

Fangraphs shows an AAV $209.5 ($23.5 under) and Cot's has $205 ($28 under). I actually think the $28 number is the correct one since Fangraphs still shows us owing a net $2.5 AAV for Hosmer, which I think Speier has specifically disputed.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'd like to know what the hell happened to Sanchez at the plate. Hits like .285 over first 1.5 seasons and then has been a Mendoza line hitter ever since. Did the defensive issues sap his confidence? Injuries?
 

ehaz

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I'd like to know what the hell happened to Sanchez at the plate. Hits like .285 over first 1.5 seasons and then has been a Mendoza line hitter ever since. Did the defensive issues sap his confidence? Injuries?
It's strange. I just looked at his statcast page and he's underperformed relative to his batted ball profile every season except his rookie year. Last year was particularly drastic re his slugging:

2022 SLG%: .377
2022 xSLG%: .439
 

JM3

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Martin at $8.75 on RSP & $6.75 on Spotrac.

Paxton at $5m on RSP & $4m on Spotrac.

The rest of the 40-man is estimated at $11m on RSP & $5.6m on Spotrac.

& there's a nebulous $5m future bonuses category on RSP that isn't on Spotrac.
 

JM3

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Martin at $8.75 on RSP & $6.75 on Spotrac.

Paxton at $5m on RSP & $4m on Spotrac.

The rest of the 40-man is estimated at $11m on RSP & $5.6m on Spotrac.

& there's a nebulous $5m future bonuses category on RSP that isn't on Spotrac.
Martin appears to be reported at 2/$17.5m everywhere else except Spotrac which has it as a 2/$13.5m. Weird discrepancy. It looks like Spotrac is missing the $4m signing bonus. Cots on the other hand has him at $7.5m per year for some reason?

Cots agrees with Spotrac on Paxton & has him at $4m.

Cots has about $9m estimated in a group of things that Spotrac has $8.1m & RSP has $18m.
 

TimScribble

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So they are basically saying if all bonuses are achieved this is the number? Makes sense.
 

simplicio

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Merrifield costs prospects and $8.8m against the tax threshold this year to downgrade our CF over what we're already expecting from Kike; I'd much rather just sign Andrus or Iglesias to play short.
 

Sleepy108

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Merrifield costs prospects and $8.8m against the tax threshold this year to downgrade our CF over what we're already expecting from Kike; I'd much rather just sign Andrus or Iglesias to play short.
Merrifield has played more games at second base than he has in the outfield. He would be a good RH option in the outfield and might be worth the financial hit.
 
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Absent another move, the Jays have 3 starting OF's, two of whom are fragile (Springer and KK). It's hard to see them trading Merrifield or Biggio...
 

Blizzard of 1978

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Merrifield costs prospects and $8.8m against the tax threshold this year to downgrade our CF over what we're already expecting from Kike; I'd much rather just sign Andrus or Iglesias to play short.
I go with your suggestions. Sign Andrus and Iggy. Actually both decent players. Don't trade players for a shortstop. Red Sox got what 20 million under the cap? They can snag one or two of them. My only exception to this is for a trade is if the Red Sox can get Kim Ha- seong. I guess something will happen before spring training starts.
 

simplicio

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Yeah, Kim remains the fantasy target; actually plays great defense as a real shortstop rather than pushing Kike/Arroyo over there and hoping for the best, and fits the pre-Mayer window perfectly. Short remains our biggest area of need, and another knock against Merrifield is that he can't fill it.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yeah, Kim remains the fantasy target; actually plays great defense as a real shortstop rather than pushing Kike/Arroyo over there and hoping for the best, and fits the pre-Mayer window perfectly. Short remains our biggest area of need, and another knock against Merrifield is that he can't fill it.
Whit also has an OPS+ of 92 over the last 300 games. He just isn’t any good anymore. No way I trade assets for him when I could just sign a comparable player for free.
 

chawson

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I'd like to know what the hell happened to Sanchez at the plate. Hits like .285 over first 1.5 seasons and then has been a Mendoza line hitter ever since. Did the defensive issues sap his confidence? Injuries?
I’d take a flyer on Sanchez depending on cost. Defense is horrible, but he’s a RH power bat.
I think Sanchez's reputation as a bad defensive catcher is maybe a bit overstated.

Jon Abbey or someone else who watches the Yankees could speak to this better than I can. But I think the deal with Gary Sanchez is that he’s a bad pitch blocker, which made him a terrible fit on a 2021 Yankee team that threw more curveballs than just about anyone else, about twice the rate of the average team. They attacked the bottom of the zone a lot.

The 2022 Twins didn't. They have much less of a curveball heavy staff, and Sanchez rated just fine defensively (+1 DRS), a big jump from his -10 mark the previous year.

Sanchez, NYY, 2021: 8 passed balls, 60 wild pitches, 879 innings, 50 SB, 10 CS
Sanchez, MIN, 2022: 4 passed balls, 27 wild pitches, 714 innings, 36 SB, 14 CS

Sonny Gray is a big curveball guy, and the Twins had Jeffers catch him. I think they'd often pull him for some of their relievers too. Like the Twins, the 2022 Sox worked up in the zone a lot, so I think Sanchez might have a decent shot to be okay here too. If we were to sign him, maybe have McGuire catch Kluber and Pivetta.

I think I'd be fine with signing him. He's been pretty "unlucky" relative to his xstats for a few years now. I don't know if that evens out but you'd have to think the Monster helps.
 

ehaz

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Gary has a career .882 OPS at Fenway FWIW. Better numbers in Boston compared to NY, TOR, BAL, or TB.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Sanchez certainly feels like a potential upgrade over Wong though. I think he’s worth taking a chance on; especially given their need to find RH power. Adding Sanchez, Iglesias or Andrus, and Duvall would round out the roster fairly nicely. Of course, it’s not impossible that at least two out of those three guys is pretty bad this year so it’s hardly a slam dunk. As it gets closer to spring training, though, I’m guessing there will be low risk deals to be had on players like this.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Sanchez would have to pay the Sawx to let him even get an invite to ST. Very Very hard NO!
Concur. I can't f'in stand Gary Sanchez. Just seeing his pukey face makes me want to punch him.
I hated it when the Sox signed Pierzynski I would hate this 100x more. If they signed Sanchez I'd stop following the Sox until he was gone. Very Very Very hard NO!
 

Yo La Tengo

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38 homers and a gold glove? Heck yeah.

But then...2022 Duvall: 12 homers, .213 avg, 87 ops+, -0.3 dWAR? Maybe....not so much?
Any insight on his ability to play CF? He had 44 games there last year and 30 in 2021, and then one other inning in CF over the course of his career.

He's 34 so I'm skeptical and I'd predict that he would not be an upgrade over Verdugo in RF.
 

A Bad Man

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Any insight on his ability to play CF?
Duvall grades out remarkably highly in OAA in CF: 2 OAA in 210 innings in 2021, 3 OAA in 382 innings in 2022.

Duvall has generally been rated by DRS and OAA as an excellent fielder no matter where he has played in the OF. The only exception is Duvall's '22 season, where he posted a -3 DRS. Two of those three negative runs came from his play in LF in 237 innings. Perhaps some of this could be attributed to shifting around and/or being hurt.
 
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jon abbey

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Sanchez is kind of worse than his individual parts. He is a large dude and late in games, his pitch blocking gets spotty and he gives up a lot of crucial passed balls. On one hand, I think this is an overrated component but on the other hand, it seems to happen a lot in big situations. At the plate, he seems easy to fool and he also is very easy to position against defensively somehow, which is a big reason why his stats don't match his underlying metrics.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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38 homers and a gold glove? Heck yeah.

But then...2022 Duvall: 12 homers, .213 avg, 87 ops+, -0.3 dWAR? Maybe....not so much?
This team desperately needs right handed hitting or LHP will dominate them. Duvall still put up a good split. vs leftys last year (0.844 OPS), so if he is used as a platoon bat/4th OF he would be a great addition to the lineup. He has also graded out pretty well defensively over his career, with even pretty good marks in CF.
 

beautokyo

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Sanchez is kind of worse than his individual parts. He is a large dude and late in games, his pitch blocking gets spotty and he gives up a lot of crucial passed balls. On one hand, I think this is an overrated component but on the other hand, it seems to happen a lot in big situations. At the plate, he seems easy to fool and he also is very easy to position against defensively somehow, which is a big reason why his stats don't match his underlying metrics.
This is music to my ears Jon. Thanks a lot. Only thing that would make this news better was if the Yanks signed him to a multiple year contract with Judge numbers :p