Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding
- Thread starter jcormjmac
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https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-rumors-red-sox-interested-in-jurickson-profar-elvis-andrus-cardinals-possible-pablo-lopez-destination/
The Red Sox have interest in free agents Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar, reports USA Today. Boston lost Xander Bogaerts to free agency and Trevor Story may miss the season with elbow surgery, creating a major need on the middle infield. Profar is No. 28 on our list of the top 50 free agents and the highest unsigned player. Andrus did not make the top 50.
Andrus, 34, had a fine season with the Athletics and White Sox a year ago, and could easily step in at shortstop. The soon-to-be 30-year-old Profar is a full-time left fielder now. He hasn't played the left side of the infield since 2018. The Red Sox could sign Profar, put him in the outfield alongside Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida, and move Enrique Hernández from center field to shortstop.
The Red Sox have interest in free agents Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar, reports USA Today. Boston lost Xander Bogaerts to free agency and Trevor Story may miss the season with elbow surgery, creating a major need on the middle infield. Profar is No. 28 on our list of the top 50 free agents and the highest unsigned player. Andrus did not make the top 50.
Andrus, 34, had a fine season with the Athletics and White Sox a year ago, and could easily step in at shortstop. The soon-to-be 30-year-old Profar is a full-time left fielder now. He hasn't played the left side of the infield since 2018. The Red Sox could sign Profar, put him in the outfield alongside Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida, and move Enrique Hernández from center field to shortstop.
I don't mind the idea of Kike at SS in a vacuum, but if Profar's fielding numbers are accurate, that could make for a pretty crappy defensive OF.
Not only that, but we'd basically have three left fielders out there. Or maybe two and a DH, given some reports on Yoshida's fielding. Who plays center?
So if Bloom goes with three LFers in the OF Bloom may finally lose the last of his supporters on SOSH…lol.
Tyler Naquin is a better fielder and better hitter against RHP (making him perfect for a Refsnyder platoon) than Profar and will likely be cheaper. If they want to go cheap you’d have to think he’d be a far better option.
Profar is a switch-hitter with experience at 2B/SS/LF. That would certainly give them some options. Recently he has spent more time in the OF then the IF but that could be that SD had other IF options and needed him in the OF. If he can still handle 2B an Arroyo/Profar platoon might be what they are considering.
Andrus and Profar were highly touted young players on the 2012 Rangers, along with future and past Red Sox players Mike Napoli, Mitch Moreland, Adrian Beltre, David Murphy, Ian Kinsler, Mike Olt (minors) Brandon Snyder, Ryan Dempster, Derek Holland (minors) Robbie Ross, Martin Perez, and Koji Uehara.
MLB Trade Rumors on whether Elvis's defensive has left the building:
MLB Trade Rumors on whether Elvis's defensive has left the building:
The same article views Jurickson as a multi-position possibility, like he always had been before last year:
He did play 2B for 218 games of his 8 year career. He played 124 games at 2B for Oakland in 2019 of which he started 115 games.
I think Fenway allows you to hide a guy a little bit in LF so I'm hopeful that Yoshida will be acceptable, so long as he's engaged and wants to get better. And I think Verdugo in RF can be non-terrible, making the OF as whole adequate with Kike in CF. But if Vedrugo gets Peter Principled to center because of Kike getting moved to the IF and Profar gets a lot of innings in RF, that could get ugly.
And he was absolutely abysmal in the field.
Pretty sure his -20 DRS in 2019 is why he hasn’t been allowed to play there much since.
Profar’s only viable position is LF, which also is true of Yoshida, and to a lesser degree Verdugo. If the Sox are signing Profar to be an extra bat from the bench and to fill in when giving Turner or Yoshida a day off that’s fine, but thats not very valuable and the money would almost certainly be better spent on someone else..
I guess a lot depends on Yoshida, but its also not a particularly great offensive OF, either.
Yeah. Without looking I'd guess a Kike-less OF would be among the worst (hitting+ fielding) among teams that had a reasonable hope to contend. It might be among the worst with Kike.
The Sox need to sign either Duvall or Andrus. They are the two best starting caliber players left.
After that, if they want to sign one of these other guys (Profar, Naquin, Harrison etc.) that’s fine - but only for a bench role..
After that, if they want to sign one of these other guys (Profar, Naquin, Harrison etc.) that’s fine - but only for a bench role..
I don't disagree.
Not for nothing, I just looked at this, and he seems to still be a serviceable major league player.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harrijo05.shtml
Yes, Harrison was good defensively in 22’ and wasn’t horrible offensively. He wouldn’t be a bad under the radar signing..
With the Padres rumored to be open to moving Grisham as well as Kim, an even trade with them per BTV (39.5 to 39.3) would be Houck (or Schreiber), Rafaela and Duran for Kim and Grisham. I want plus defensive players and not aging veterans you try and milk value out of by moving them to less demanding positions like Andrus or Iglesias.
That said, I don't know what the Pads are looking for exactly or why they'd want to move someone as cheap as Grisham. I'd also be fine with Duvall if the Sox want to resume hoarding. Or the Pads could sign him.
I don't see any other centerfielders or shortstops on the trade market with defensive value.
That said, I don't know what the Pads are looking for exactly or why they'd want to move someone as cheap as Grisham. I'd also be fine with Duvall if the Sox want to resume hoarding. Or the Pads could sign him.
I don't see any other centerfielders or shortstops on the trade market with defensive value.
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I think I'd prefer to hold onto Rafaela than trade him plus Duran for Grisham. They can have Duran and, as much I'd like to keep him, Houck, but if we can't swap out Cedanne for someone else, I'll pass on Grisham.
Reflexively, I come down on the side of keeping Rafaela and just signing Andrus and/or Iggy. But I don’t really know Kim at all. I’d appreciate thoughts on why we should actually trade for him instead of going the free agent route.
The problem now with Kim, in my opinion, is that 2023 has become even more marginal with the Story injury. With 2 years left of control you are giving up an awful lot for half of his control being during a marginal period.
My thoughts on that basically stem throughout the rest of the offseason. Unfortunately, the Story injury is an inflection point and giving up 2024 assets for 2023 simply no longer makes sense. I was ALL IN on Kim beforehand, it's just become an unfortunate situation
Kim has a very high floor and is only making 7 mill per the next two seasons. They could also QO him if he declines his 2025 option. Perfect bridge to Mayer. Andrus has been all over the place offensively, is declining on defense and I'm not sure what to expect from him.
Regarding Grisham - it's not at all unreasonable that he will be the superior player to Rafaela the next few years either (or ever). He's not a free agent until 2026. I was against moving Rafaela at first but I can live with it if they can grab a cost controlled guy.
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Before the Story injury we needed a MI, now we need two. It all comes down to the quality of defense that you think you can afford in terms of $$$ and assets.
How high is Kim’s floor, offensively? He hit 202/270/352 in ‘21. He’s interesting and would certainly help but giving up one of the few cost controlled young pitchers the team has in Houck seems like a potential mistake, especially since the difference between Kim and someone available for just money (Andrus, etc.) seems unlikely to be significant.
He hit well in Korea, but hadn't been able to do it here until last year. The batted ball metrics say he was more lucky than good. He's very good defensively. Scouts say Rafaela is already really good on defense, so I'm not sure you're really upgrading by swapping the two.
If the likelihood is that we're looking at one and maybe two bridge years -- i.e., we're not seriously competing for a deep October run -- I wouldn't want to give up any meaningful pieces in the minor leagues, including Rafaela.
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The problem with that is by winter of 2024 the QO is likely to be around $20 M so unless he has a terrific next 2 years he'd probably accept it because he wouldn't get that in the FA market.
He might not get an AAV of $20M, but he'd likely get a multi-year deal that would interest him and net us a pick.
True - though FWIW Steamer has him projected around 3 fWAR this season which would be about the going rate. Regardless, I think he's a much safer bet to be an improvement.
I think at some point the Sox are just going to have to part with some of these pieces. They aren't going to get anyone elite with Rafaela alone so if they can add a few wins by not breaking the bank they ought to do it. The Story situation sucks but they are still on the periphery of a wild card spot.
This is kinda of the problem though. Rafeala is one year away from being a helpful major league player at positions where system lacks near MLB talent . People who can play elite+ defense in center and above average defense at short are extremely valuable. His defense makes him a very high floor player.
So you'd be sacrificing 2024+ for 2023 and I just don't see how that's a smart of logical move at this point.
If they move Rafeala, it will be in a package for a player that has more than 2 years of control. I can basically guarantee that.
I get that, but also believe people are penciling him in to be a better than average big leaguer which he would need to be to be an improvement on Grisham or Kim (or Mayer in a few seasons) who are all good defensive players . He could be, but the odds aren't in his favor.
Not for nothing, but I think it's pretty high moving out of Petco and the NL West specifically. He got far more (and regular) playing time last year with almost 600PA as opposed to just under 300PA his rookie year. Most players tend to have a split of performing better at home vs on the road, and Kim was the reverse of that with a .659OPS at Petco but .754 on the road. Drilling down even further he had a .577OPS in LA and .508OPS in SF. He was great in Arizona and fine in Colorado, but when you take into account the park factors that greatly benefit pitchers at Petco (San Diego) but also in SF and LA and then that there are much more hitter friendly parks in the AL East, I think there is a very high chance you're looking at an OPS around .775 (or better) moving to Fenway - or basically any non TB park in the AL East.
Similar to how moving from Boston to San Diego is likely to hurt Bogaerts, it would probably greatly benefit Kim.
All that said, this...
In a "typical" Red Sox year, I'd absolutely be on board with a move including Houck or Rafaela for Kim. But unlike a lot of folks on this board, I think the way the 2023 (and probably 2024) teams have been put together means we're looking at a realistic outcome of challenging for 4th place with Baltimore, possibly. Kim would be gone when the window is likely to open, and I think Houck and Rafaela have decent chances to be contributors in that 2025+ window. Moving assets from that 2025+ window (Houck controlled through 2027, Rafaela obviously isn't in the majors yet) for someone that isn't going to be here I don't think makes sense.
Now, if San Diego would take something that BTV considers an "overpay" of Schrieber and Duran (24.9 value) for Kim (18.4) I'd do that in a second, but I don't necessarily expect other GMs to make a bad deal.
I don't know the "negotiation window" aspect of the new CBA, but I'd CERTAINLY deal Houck and Rafaela for an "extended" Kim where we controlled him for 5 years or some such, but for the 2023 and 2024 seasons of this iteration of the Boston Red Sox, I don't think moving real prospects is worthwhile.
If I thought Kim and/or Grisham was the missing piece to a potential championship caliber team, I may be OK with trading a good prospect like Rafaela. However, with Bogey gone and Story out most if not all year, this team might as well keep their prospects, hope to strike gold with a couple under the radar signings, and keep building for the Mayer/Devers era.
So my vote would be to sign Duvall, move Kike to SS, hope Arroyo stays healthy at 2B, maybe sign a middle infield depth piece and stay under the tax threshold.
So my vote would be to sign Duvall, move Kike to SS, hope Arroyo stays healthy at 2B, maybe sign a middle infield depth piece and stay under the tax threshold.
At times "just money " is relevant and a lot depends on how many positions you're looking to fill. I've seen a couple of reports that Andrus is looking for 20M for 2 years. Maybe you do that and he's your 2 year bridge to Mayer, but IMHO we need another guy along side of him. It's not going to be little Raffi in this situation and while I'm not in a hurry to move Houck there may some trade deadline value in having both Kim and Andrus on the team IF a healthy Story returns.
If Duvall is actually signed...who gets DFA?
I'm on board with many of you... why give up pieces that can help us in 3-5 years for pieces that will help us still not make the playoffs until then? I would rather use Houke and other more valuable pieces for guys that will help us down the road as well.
I'm on board with many of you... why give up pieces that can help us in 3-5 years for pieces that will help us still not make the playoffs until then? I would rather use Houke and other more valuable pieces for guys that will help us down the road as well.
if money and age weren’t variables I’d prefer Kluber to Seabold, but since they are, I’d rather have the lower paid 26 year old. And certainly prefer Seabold to Ort. Hope to be wrong
If they're not planning on a 3 for 1 type trade to fill the SS hole, I'd probably like to see someone like Dalbec or Duran traded for the best non-40-man prospect(s) they can get.
As a right-handed bat, Duvall makes Dalbec less important, & as a guy who can play center he makes Duran less important.
Otherwise, happy to do the same with Ort/Brasier if anyone is interested.
Unless Seabold regains the mph he lost after his surgery, his ceiling is going to be 8th or 9th starter for a good team, & he's currently about their 13th best starter, so it's unfortunate, but as a guy who can be a top 5 starter this year, that makes Kluber likely more valuable than Seabold will ever be.
I'd expect:
Against righties:
CF Enrique or Duvall
RF Verdugo
Against lefties:
CF Enrique
RF Duvall
With the flexibility to play Enrique at MI against righties if they think it's their best option on any given day.
A small thing, but while I don't think either Dalbec or Duran is sure to be a useful major leaguer, an improved Duran would actually have value to the 2023 team as a fourth outfielder (with Hernandez playing mostly IF), whereas Dalbec seems completely surplus to requirements. Wouldn't be shocked to see him DFA'd.
Adam Duvall makes too much sense for the Red Sox. Worst case, he's your starting CF; best case, he's a bench guy playing all over the outfield with [insert defensive-minded player here] starting at SS and Arroyo holding down 2B until Story returns.
He's such a match for Fenway given his power and defensive profile, I think a 2-year deal makes a lot of sense (if that rumor is true).
He's such a match for Fenway given his power and defensive profile, I think a 2-year deal makes a lot of sense (if that rumor is true).
