Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

billy ashley

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Yep, I think it's
Right. Though I think that now we are two years over the tax threshold that limits rebuilding efforts if the goal is to spend for a bit before having to reset again.

But again, I don’t know what the plan is here. We hear they want Xander forever and he’s gone now (under insane circumstances that he never should have met). But I don’t get the sense Devers will be a lifer. So we can likely expect one more medium sized deal and then a bunch of stocking stuffers and hope they gel as a core.

Yep, totally agree. I sort of feel like they're kind of stuck in neutral.

Trust that the FO has a plan and are smarter than I, but I'd probably look to extend Devers and younger stars (Casas, Mayer, etc.) and go cheap everywhere else, looking to sneak into the playoffs and resetting the tax. Don't know if that's possible.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I think an obvious problem is the acceleration of the free agent market which makes it much more difficult to find useful players at the mid-tier range (say <4 years at an aav of ~20m). Add in the fact that all the teams trying to rebuild are generally doing it with really young players- which means they have fewer players to trade to teams like the Sox; and it increases the demand and price on the few appealing players in the trade market (Murphy, Reynolds, etc.)

It also feels like the great players in baseball are as good as they ever were but that the middle and lower class are not nearly as good, especially on the offensive side where even the best teams tend to have worse benches than years ago. I think this probably means that the truly elite players are even more valuable than ever, which kind of seems to be how the market is working.
 

Obscure Name

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E5 Yaz

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Trade Mookie Betts, let Xander walk away...and NOW Henry is worried about the fan base?!? He's only worried the money from the fans will stop coming in, and he very surely should be.
Yeah, that's just one reason I'm not buying that tweet from a guy who around calling himself "The Truth."
 

brandonchristensen

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Trade Mookie Betts, let Xander walk away...and NOW Henry is worried about the fan base?!? He's only worried the money from the fans will stop coming in, and he very surely should be.
Easy solution. Raise ticket prices to make up for the lost quantity of tickets sold.
 

mikcou

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Good point. I actually wonder what this does for Correa. People are saying that he should get nothing less than what Bogaerts got. I understand that. Correa is two years younger and he’s better.

BUT… we all also understand that what SD did was completely frigging nuts. Nobody else in MLB was even close.

I’m selling a car and everyone thinks it’s worth 20k, and there is a group of highest bidders around 20k, and then all of a sudden out of nowhere some lunatic offers me 35k for it. I’m like ok yeah so I sell it for a price way way beyond what anyone thought it could sell for.

So now the crazy lunatic is out of the picture as you sell your slightly better car. It OUGHT to be worth maybe 22k, and the only person who would ever have bought it for insane dollars isn’t buying now because he just wildly overspent for mine. So everyone else in the buying market is at least somewhat sane and they all think that the lunatic wildly overspent.

So is it realistic for YOU to expect that your slightly better car will sell for 37k just because mine went to a complete lunatic for 35k? Or, now that the lunatic isn’t buying anymore, will it most likely be the case that your car will sell for maybe 23-24k?

In other words, does one wild crazy overpay set the market or does everyone else go, ok wow that guy is CRAZY and nobody else is going to spend that kind of money like that for that kind of player?
I think we need to back away from the idea that the Xander contract is the actions of a lunatic. Just to remind everyone, Trea Turner got 11/300 as well. I think Turner is a better player than Xander, but how much better I think reasonable evaluators can differ.

Both of these deals were clearly stretched out as a financing mechanism both the for the tax purposes as well as to drive the present value of the deal down considerably below its headline number - theyre the MLB equivalent of void years. If the player is worth anything in years 10 and 11 thats a bonus. If every star contract is crazy, then they're all just the normal market.

I dont know why we should assume every other non Sox and Padres offer for Xander was $200M on the dot - the report said he had a number of other offers that were "more than 200". People keep reading the at least or more than out of the report. It strikes as really hard to believer there wasnt a range there. If he got things in the 220-230 range over 7 or 8 years, the Padres offer isnt out of the park off (higher, but certainly not substantially higher than that) on a present value basis.

Correa is a better player than both of them and is multiple years younger. He is legitimately deserving of a real 10/325-$350 Seager type deal. If the team wants to stretch it will be 13 years like Harper's was and will push close to $400M
 

Papo The Snow Tiger

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Trade Mookie Betts, let Xander walk away...and NOW Henry is worried about the fan base?!? He's only worried the money from the fans will stop coming in, and he very surely should be.
Doing some quick math from the "Poll: Rate Your Faith in the Red Sox Front Office" thread, nearly two thirds of the responses are at a charitable head scratching "Though it's hard to decipher, there MUST be a plan" and below, bottoming out at "there is no plan". And this is polling conducted amongst us hard core SOSH'ers. I think it's safe to say that he IS losing the fanbase.
 

jon abbey

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I think we need to back away from the idea that the Xander contract is the actions of a lunatic.
Disagree, I think time will show that it was absolutely a lunatic move by SD. Xander was a much better hitter in Fenway than he will be in SD, and he is somewhere between their third and fifth best defensive SS, the others all moved to other positions to accommodate him. Sometimes specific circumstances mean a player is worth more to a specific team than elsewhere (Yoshida’s poor D is easier to hide in Fenway LF, LeMahieu and Rizzo are helped by the short Yankee Stadium RF), but Bogaerts to SD seems to be the precise opposite of that.
 

glennhoffmania

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Disagree, I think time will show that it was absolutely a lunatic move by SD. Xander was a much better hitter in Fenway than he will be in SD, and he is somewhere between their third and fifth best defensive SS, the others all moved to other positions to accommodate him. Sometimes specific circumstances mean a player is worth more to a specific team than elsewhere (Yoshida’s poor D is easier to hide in Fenway LF, LeMahieu and Rizzo are helped by the short Yankee Stadium RF), but Bogaerts to SD seems to be the precise opposite of that.
What hitter wouldn't be better at Fenway than at Petco?
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Correa is a better player than both of them and is multiple years younger. He is legitimately deserving of a real 10/325-$350 Seager type deal. If the team wants to stretch it will be 13 years like Harper's was and will push close to $400M
Agree with your overall points. On Correa, I’d quibble a bit. I’m not sure there’s another team left like Padres and Rangers that’s desperately willing to overspend. The Twins want Correa back, but I’d be stunned if they were to go over $250 or 8 years. Cubs? Maybe, but kind of doubt it; they look like they’d rather get multiple good players than outspend everyone for Correa. Giants? Most likely. If they sense they’re at the top on money, they’ll probably get an AAV break by adding years. So my guess would be something from SF in the 11/$330 or 12/$350 range. That’s comparable to Seager but maybe a bit more manageable for the team and in line with other deals this off-season.
 

mikcou

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Disagree, I think time will show that it was absolutely a lunatic move by SD. Xander was a much better hitter in Fenway than he will be in SD, and he is somewhere between their third and fifth best defensive SS, the others all moved to other positions to accommodate him. Sometimes specific circumstances mean a player is worth more to a specific team than elsewhere (Yoshida’s poor D is easier to hide in Fenway LF, LeMahieu and Rizzo are helped by the short Yankee Stadium RF), but Bogaerts to SD seems to be the precise opposite of that.
It may not end well and I dont think he's a good fit for SD for a number of reasons - the primary one being the one that you mention - they already have like three shortstops. That does not mean the contract was insanely out of the market, which was really what I was trying to communicate.

Xander is the same age as Turner, he got a bit less than 10% less than Turner. Maybe that should be like 15%, but I dont think it should be like 30-40% (e.g., an 11/220-230 was never going to happen from the player side) to the point where Preller was paying 30% more after accounting for stretching the pay out, than anyone else was willing to pay. I suspect Xander had offers in the 220-230M range for like 8 years.
 

jon abbey

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That does not mean the contract was insanely out of the market, which was really what I was trying to communicate.
Yeah I don't agree with any of your recent financial analysis of FA deals, sorry.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Agree with your overall points. On Correa, I’d quibble a bit. I’m not sure there’s another team left like Padres and Rangers that’s desperately willing to overspend. The Twins want Correa back, but I’d be stunned if they were to go over $250 or 8 years. Cubs? Maybe, but kind of doubt it; they look like they’d rather get multiple good players than outspend everyone for Correa. Giants? Most likely. If they sense they’re at the top on money, they’ll probably get an AAV break by adding years. So my guess would be something from SF in the 11/$330 or 12/$350 range. That’s comparable to Seager but maybe a bit more manageable for the team and in line with other deals this off-season.
I actually think that the Cubs are still lurking and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them offer something really big. They're going to start spending.
 

simplicio

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It may not end well and I dont think he's a good fit for SD for a number of reasons - the primary one being the one that you mention - they already have like three shortstops. That does not mean the contract was insanely out of the market, which was really what I was trying to communicate.

Xander is the same age as Turner, he got a bit less than 10% less than Turner. Maybe that should be like 15%, but I dont think it should be like 30-40% (e.g., an 11/220-230 was never going to happen from the player side) to the point where Preller was paying 30% more after accounting for stretching the pay out, than anyone else was willing to pay. I suspect Xander had offers in the 220-230M range for like 8 years.
1. Turner is 9 months younger, which makes some difference.
2. His deal is also nuts.
 

JM3

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The Gomez tweet is actually a reposting of a tweet from this guy ... who I've never heard of before, so be wary
View: https://twitter.com/jon_muller00/status/1601590991869607937
Even if this Muller guy has some real intel that the Red Sox are heavily in on Senga... the tack on part is super made up & I assume is his editorial spin on it.

Like who is Henry telling this to..."I'm worried about losing the fan base so we're going in on Senga!"

The real answer is much more likely that the Red Sox have recently increased their offer...because they now are certain they have more $ under the threshold & they'll need to probably do some sort of trade from positions of surplus to backfill SS.

Like signing Senga frees up Pivetta or Houck to trade.

& then this guy takes the increased offer & is like omg Henry desperate to keep fan base!
 

mikcou

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Yeah I don't agree with any of your recent financial analysis of FA deals, sorry.
Sure, thats fine. There are a couple of things going on - some teams are clearly intentionally going longer to reduce AAV and what level of pure pricing inflation there is. For example for Xander, Ben Clemens at FG had his contract at 7/217 before the offseason. Comparing that to the deal he got on a PV basis is only like 7.5% more at a 10% discount rate (and 10% at a 8% discount rate). I guess for others who thought Xander was going to get like 160-170M (even before the season I was convinced he was going to be in the 180s or 190s and after seeing his defense and continued 7-8% inflation generally thought 210-220 was basically guaranteed) or think discount rates should be 3-4% (I personally use 5% for personal purposes, but have never seen any business use anything below 7-8% and those were all very large corporations; private businesses were all 10%+), they're going to have materially different thoughts.

Personally, I like the strategy from the team's perspective because teams likely apply higher discount rates than players so it seems like an easier way to come to an agreement.
 

Ganthem

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The Gomez tweet is actually a reposting of a tweet from this guy ... who I've never heard of before, so be wary
View: https://twitter.com/jon_muller00/status/1601590991869607937
Even if the Sox lose 100 plus games next season the fan base will be back in the seats and spending as soon as there is a competitive product on the field. John Henry and Bloom probably don't give two shits about what the fan base thinks. As for their aversion to long term contracts at big money, the Dodgers just have one of those on the books and the Astros have none, unless you count Bregman's five years as long term. As much as people on here want to bitch about the team not being willing to spend, there are successful examples of teams being very careful with those kind of contracts.
 

NYCSox

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Even if the Sox lose 100 plus games next season the fan base will be back in the seats and spending as soon as there is a competitive product on the field. John Henry and Bloom probably don't give two shits about what the fan base thinks. As for their aversion to long term contracts at big money, the Dodgers just have one of those on the books and the Astros have none, unless you count Bregman's five years as long term. As much as people on here want to bitch about the team not being willing to spend, there are successful examples of teams being very careful with those kind of contracts.
Well sure if you have a kick ass farm system. You can add the Braves to that list as well. So it can be done.
 

phineas gage

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a kick ass farm system.
Pretty sure that is what Chaim was brought in to build--and certainly progress has been made toward that end. The fact that the team was duplicitous in pretending it could compete at a top level at the same time that it carried out this transformation seems to suggest that ownership is concerned about the fan base. Otherwise it would have been pretty easy to say, in so many words, 'we're going to suck for a while, so buckle up'. As many others have observed, they followed the same less than honest strategy with Mookie and now Xander.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Didn’t Red Sox stats share something in the last 48 hours that the Sox were trying to bring in both Senga and Yoshida? I thought he had uncovered a source in Japan stating that.

If this guy is legit I’d say there is a lot of smoke to Boston and Senga .
 

A Bad Man

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Didn’t Red Sox stats share something in the last 48 hours that the Sox were trying to bring in both Senga and Yoshida? I thought he had uncovered a source in Japan stating that.

If this guy is legit I’d say there is a lot of smoke to Boston and Senga .
 

TimScribble

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Some rumblings that Senga will announce tomorrow at a Japanese game show. But also it could just be an appearance on the show.
 

Blizzard of 1978

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The Gomez tweet is actually a reposting of a tweet from this guy ... who I've never heard of before, so be wary
View: https://twitter.com/jon_muller00/status/1601590991869607937
I am going to be wary as well. He has been on Twitter since 2014 and has less than 200 followers, than again why would the respected Gomez re-tweet him? This is strange. Well, I hope this guy who calls himself the Truth is actually telling the truth. I guess we will find out soon with those rumors of Senga going on a Japanese TV show later over there today. This is one of the strangest rumors yet.
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

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If he’s truly prioritizing winning over everything else the Sox ain’t getting him. Long as the Yankees or Dodgers don’t get him I can probably tolerate it
 

TimScribble

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The names I’ve seen the most are the Mets and the Padres before the Red Sox rumor this morning.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Disagree, I think time will show that it was absolutely a lunatic move by SD. Xander was a much better hitter in Fenway than he will be in SD, and he is somewhere between their third and fifth best defensive SS, the others all moved to other positions to accommodate him. Sometimes specific circumstances mean a player is worth more to a specific team than elsewhere (Yoshida’s poor D is easier to hide in Fenway LF, LeMahieu and Rizzo are helped by the short Yankee Stadium RF), but Bogaerts to SD seems to be the precise opposite of that.
What do you mean by “lunatic move”?Do you think the Padres won’t be able to afford Machado or Soto in the coming years? Do you think that this will cripple their franchise another way?

I mean ever MLB franchise can afford multiple contracts like this, until they don’t want to. I mean look at the Yanks, they have two players making $30m+ over lengthy contracts and just signed another. They’re going to be fine and it wouldn’t surprise me if they added another big contract in the next year or two.

Logically, I get what you’re saying in theory that Xander is worth more to Boston than he is to SD. But let’s look at the SD market: they have it all to themselves (no NFL, NBA, NHL or MLS teams) and they been around for 50+ years and haven’t won a World Series. Their owner wants to be the guy that beats the Dodgers and bring the Padres SD’s only championship in any sport (other than the AFL).

How much is that worth?
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Even if the Sox lose 100 plus games next season the fan base will be back in the seats and spending as soon as there is a competitive product on the field. John Henry and Bloom probably don't give two shits about what the fan base thinks. As for their aversion to long term contracts at big money, the Dodgers just have one of those on the books and the Astros have none, unless you count Bregman's five years as long term. As much as people on here want to bitch about the team not being willing to spend, there are successful examples of teams being very careful with those kind of contracts.
First off, I don’t believe that Henry doesn’t give two shits about what the fans think. If you piss off your fan base, you’re fucked and I think Henry understands that.

Secondly, let’s say you’re right and Henry and Bloom, etc don’t care about the fan and what he/she thinks. Why would a team that depends a lot on fan engagement (tickets, concessions, apparel, memorabilia, TV ratings, etc) openly ignore or antagonize their fan base?

Henry is a business man and doing so would devalue his business. That doesn’t seem intelligent.

Bloom? I don’t know WTF he’s thinking. I just don’t think he’s really good at his job and if this is another lost year and the Sox have another shit/mediocre year, Henry is going to say enough is enough and can his ass.
 

jon abbey

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What do you mean by “lunatic move”?Do you think the Padres won’t be able to afford Machado or Soto in the coming years? Do you think that this will cripple their franchise another way?
I think it is a bad use of their money, it immediately weakens them at shortstop defensively and I don't think Bogaerts' bat will be anything special outside of Fenway. I think Preller decided to throw money at every big FA and if he got one, worry about how they fit later, and I think this one is past the necessary overpays that we've been seeing, not just an overpay but a very bad fit.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What do you mean by “lunatic move”?Do you think the Padres won’t be able to afford Machado or Soto in the coming years? Do you think that this will cripple their franchise another way?

I mean ever MLB franchise can afford multiple contracts like this, until they don’t want to. I mean look at the Yanks, they have two players making $30m+ over lengthy contracts and just signed another. They’re going to be fine and it wouldn’t surprise me if they added another big contract in the next year or two.

Logically, I get what you’re saying in theory that Xander is worth more to Boston than he is to SD. But let’s look at the SD market: they have it all to themselves (no NFL, NBA, NHL or MLS teams) and they been around for 50+ years and haven’t won a World Series. Their owner wants to be the guy that beats the Dodgers and bring the Padres SD’s only championship in any sport (other than the AFL).

How much is that worth?
I think it's a lunatic move relative to what the market appeared to be for Bogaerts. By all accounts they were ~$60-70M and 3-4 years above what anyone else was offering. Maybe they were just bypassing another week's worth of bidding and eventually the offers would have gotten there, but that seems unlikely.

If they feel it's worth it, good for them.
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

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In fairness, we're undefeated in '23 at this point. I'll continue to reserve judgement at least until we start the season.
The problem is the players aren’t doing that. They’re looking at current rosters and basing their decisions on that. It’s just so damn frustrating! We took steps forward from last season’s team in regards to the bullpen, but we’ve taken massive steps backwards in the rotation and lineup. This is where a front office with no leaks is painful. At least when we had leaks we had SOME semblance of an idea what they were thinking. Now? They could be thinking “sign Correa and Rodon, and trade for Reynolds and Murphy” or “I’m hungry, who wants Chinese?”
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I think it is a bad use of their money, it immediately weakens them at shortstop defensively and I don't think Bogaerts' bat will be anything special outside of Fenway. I think Preller decided to throw money at every big FA and if he got one, worry about how they fit later, and I think this one is past the necessary overpays that we've been seeing, not just an overpay but a very bad fit.
I don’t disagree with you about Preller, he’s spending like a poet on payday. But I disagree with your overall assessment on Bogaerts. I think he’s going to have a similar year next year both offensively and defensively.

Obviously his skills are going to deteriorate over the length of this contract (where the lunacy comes in?) but I don’t think it’s going to hamper any decision making going forward for the Pads. They’ll be fine.
 

jon abbey

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I don’t disagree with you about Preller, he’s spending like a poet on payday. But I disagree with your overall assessment on Bogaerts. I think he’s going to have a similar year next year both offensively and defensively.

Obviously his skills are going to deteriorate over the length of this contract (where the lunacy comes in?) but I don’t think it’s going to hamper any decision making going forward for the Pads. They’ll be fine.
I could get behind all of this logic if we were talking about Trae Turner to the Phillies, they actually needed a shortstop and will play Turner there. Bogaerts' fit on SD just makes no sense to me, Nimmo would have been a better fit as well as cheaper.
 

Yaz4Ever

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The problem is the players aren’t doing that. They’re looking at current rosters and basing their decisions on that. It’s just so damn frustrating! We took steps forward from last season’s team in regards to the bullpen, but we’ve taken massive steps backwards in the rotation and lineup. This is where a front office with no leaks is painful. At least when we had leaks we had SOME semblance of an idea what they were thinking. Now? They could be thinking “sign Correa and Rodon, and trade for Reynolds and Murphy” or “I’m hungry, who wants Chinese?”
I agree, it's frustrating. I'm likely too hopeful/optimistic that we'll make some vital improvements between now and the start of the season. Senga or Rodon (both??), Correa/Swanson, and a player like Myers (who I think would hit well at Fenway) and we're looking much better. Of course, without extending Devers, it could all be for naught.
 

ehaz

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I’d be surprised if Senga doesn’t go to the Mets. They’ve been targeting him all off-season, money is meaningless to Cohen, and they fit his requirement of a contender/big market.

I don’t see Chaim outbidding Steve Cohen.
 

Return of the Dewey

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Trade Mookie Betts, let Xander walk away...and NOW Henry is worried about the fan base?!? He's only worried the money from the fans will stop coming in, and he very surely should be.
TokyoSox or someone else who knows about the Japanese market would know better, but could ownership’s concentration on Japanese players this cycle be to drive revenues in Japanese market? Are there some untapped revenues that they are trying to capture by signing star players?
 

Hee Sox Choi

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TokyoSox or someone else who knows about the Japanese market would know better, but could ownership’s concentration on Japanese players this cycle be to drive revenues in Japanese market? Are there some untapped revenues that they are trying to capture by signing star players?
I was wondering if it meant they might go big on Ohtani next year. Would be much more fun to come to a team with two of your compatriots already there instead of being the lone Japanese player in a foreign country.
 

JM3

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I was wondering if it meant they might go big on Ohtani next year. Would be much more fun to come to a team with two of your compatriots already there instead of being the lone Japanese player in a foreign country.
The weird thing is when Ohtani 1st came over his big thing was being the 1st significant Japanese player on a team. No idea if he's changed his mind or if Boston would be a market that might interest him.

Someone else pointed out that this might be a future play at Yoshida's teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is a really good 24 y/o pitcher.
 

ShoelessJoe

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I’d be surprised if Senga doesn’t go to the Mets. They’ve been targeting him all off-season, money is meaningless to Cohen, and they fit his requirement of a contender/big market.

I don’t see Chaim outbidding Steve Cohen.
Sadly, I think this is correct, and not from any denigration of Bloom, but it just seems to me like Cohen really wants him and is spending like Jack Ashore. That said, if Bloom does land these two major Japanese free agents, he can let a hundred Xanders walk as far as I’m concerned.
 

nighthob

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What hitter wouldn't be better at Fenway than at Petco?
I think that what he was trying to say is that X has a pretty significant home road split and he's moving to a very hitter unfriendly park. And playing in that division is going to make X look a lot more pedestrian.