Red Sox Trade Deadline 2022

I Miss Maalox

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Wrong? That trade was instrumental in winning a World Series.

Meanwhile, Craig -- who played for the Cardinals and Red Sox -- is shown in a Padres cap on his BRef page. He was in ST with them after leaving Boston, but never in a regular season game

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/craigal01.shtml
He took a job in the Padres front office after he retired, so that may explain his cap.
And Kelly helping us win the WS was just gravy as far as that trade goes. I never liked rooting for Lackey, and I still root for Joe to this day.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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This is basically exactly what I'd like to do. Sell old guys (JDM, Eovaldi, Vazquez) for prospects and simultaneously trade prospects for controllable talent to add to the future core: more of a jumpstart on the offseason than a rebuild.
Vientos is intriguing. But who catches next year if Vazquez isn't on the team?

Someone once said:

You have to have a catcher because if you don't you're likely to have a lot of passed balls.
 

nvalvo

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Vientos is intriguing. But who catches next year if Vazquez isn't on the team?

Someone once said:
The proposal in the tweet was to package the return from NYM with some of the Sox prospect hoard to Oakland for Sean Murphy, who is still pre-arb.

I'm more agnostic about particular targets. But we have a deep farm right now, and an approaching window. So we can't really accept near-term prospects who will need 40-man slots, and we don't really need more young guys. So it follows that if we sell (for prospects), we should turn around and send said prospects back out for controllable MLBers.
 

YTF

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Hometown discounts usually occur well before a player hits free agency, don’t they? Are there examples of them occurring when a player is a free agent, or right prior?

(I guess there are the numerous Boras examples of guys like Varitek who he claims took less, but those generally seem lacking in details of offers from the mystery team).
I look at those more like insurance policies than a home town discount with players willing to sell out their arbitration years as a hedge against not getting to free agency. Seems to work out for both sides.
 

amfox1

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But for back-of-the-envelope purposes, how about a rough comp of Trevor Story? 6 years, age 29-34, $140 guaranteed, team option for age 35 at $20 more than the $5m buyout. . .total $155m with option. Call it an AAV of $23 or $24m.

So (and this part is total spitballing) if Xander thinks he's a Trevor Story comp, he might seriously consider forgoing FA by signing for a guaranteed 5 years/$117 on the low end? 6/$144 for a mid-range? Something with a $25 AAV for a 5/6/7 year spread of $125/150/175?
To me, Story took a discounted deal, given the questions about his arm and Colorado air. If I'm X, I don't consider Story a comp at all. I compare myself to Seager and Correa, both of whom took more than $32mm/yr. $30mm/yr gets me to listen. A Story contract is summarily rejected, and I go to free agency.
 

E5 Yaz

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To me, Story took a discounted deal, given the questions about his arm and Colorado air. If I'm X, I don't consider Story a comp at all. I compare myself to Seager and Correa, both of whom took more than $32mm/yr. $30mm/yr gets me to listen. A Story contract is summarily rejected, and I go to free agency.
So, given he won't want to go back into free agency at 33-34, we're looking at something in the range of 6/186 to 8/248

A difficult-to-make pass for me.
 

BigSoxFan

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So, given he won't want to go back into free agency at 33-34, we're looking at something in the range of 6/186 to 8/248

A difficult-to-make pass for me.
If he wants more than Story money, that's an easy pass for me. Someone else can pay big money for his age 30+ years.
 

bosockboy

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With so much work for Bloom to get done this winter, I’d be disappointed if he didn’t use this deadline also as a buying opportunity in addition to selling off some pieces. The Marlins want a young CF in a Pablo Lopez deal, I’d see if Duran+ package might get that done.
Duran/Yorke/Groome might be close.
 

BaseballJones

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I wouldn't pay X the kind of money we're talking about in a Correa comp. As I've stated, I'd give him $30m a year but only 3 years max on that. If X wants more years than that, his AAV has to come way down. No way am I paying 6-7 years at $30m each for him. Absolutely no way. And I absolutely LOVE Bogaerts.

I want to save my money for Devers and - in the off chance it's possible - Soto.
 

BigSoxFan

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With so much work for Bloom to get done this winter, I’d be disappointed if he didn’t use this deadline also as a buying opportunity in addition to selling off some pieces. The Marlins want a young CF in a Pablo Lopez deal, I’d see if Duran+ package might get that done.
Duran/Yorke/Groome might be close.
Duran is 26 in a month and has almost nothing to show for his MLB stints. I can’t imagine he’d be of much interest to the Marlins. Maybe Rafaela might.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Duran is 26 in a month and has almost nothing to show for his MLB stints. I can’t imagine he’d be of much interest to the Marlins. Maybe Rafaela might.
I know it's not the end-all, but Baseball Trade Values has it as a more even trade and a more attractive package if it's Duran/Yorke/Groome than Rafaela/Yorke/Groome. Frankly, either way you do it, Yorke is the real prize in that package and could potentially be a guy that could be moved to the outfield.
 

Rovin Romine

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To me, Story took a discounted deal, given the questions about his arm and Colorado air. If I'm X, I don't consider Story a comp at all. I compare myself to Seager and Correa, both of whom took more than $32mm/yr. $30mm/yr gets me to listen. A Story contract is summarily rejected, and I go to free agency.
With the Boras factor in play, you may be right about the above (even with Xander's defense, declining power, and real (but not terrible) home/road splits.)

If X thinks he's getting $30+ in free agency despite clubs considering those factors, I'm not sure that a $28m AAV for 5 years gets it done for the Sox.

And I'm certain I wouldn't want the Sox to offer that.
 

jon abbey

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I know it's not the end-all, but Baseball Trade Values has it as a more even trade and a more attractive package if it's Duran/Yorke/Groome than Rafaela/Yorke/Groome. Frankly, either way you do it, Yorke is the real prize in that package and could potentially be a guy that could be moved to the outfield.
Yorke has been pretty lousy this year by the numbers, are there extenuating circumstances? He is still young for his level but I’m guessing his trade value currently is lower than it was this offseason.
 

nvalvo

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Yorke has been pretty lousy this year by the numbers, are there extenuating circumstances? He is still young for his level but I’m guessing his trade value currently is lower than it was this offseason.
A few distinct injuries, yeah. But definitely: his walk rate is way down, his K rate is up, his BABIP has collapsed...
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Yorke has been pretty lousy this year by the numbers, are there extenuating circumstances? He is still young for his level but I’m guessing his trade value currently is lower than it was this offseason.
Not sure what his value is now versus last winter, and I wasn't trying to suggest he's necessarily a capital P Prize overall. He's just the highest valued player of the ones proposed for that trade, at least according to BTV.
 

BigSoxFan

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I know it's not the end-all, but Baseball Trade Values has it as a more even trade and a more attractive package if it's Duran/Yorke/Groome than Rafaela/Yorke/Groome. Frankly, either way you do it, Yorke is the real prize in that package and could potentially be a guy that could be moved to the outfield.
It’s definitely a trade I would be all over if the opportunity presented itself
 

Ganthem

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Duran is 26 in a month and has almost nothing to show for his MLB stints. I can’t imagine he’d be of much interest to the Marlins. Maybe Rafaela might.
Duran has a grand total of 252 mlb at bats. The jury is still out on him
 

BigSoxFan

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Duran has a grand total of 252 mlb at bats. The jury is still out on him
That’s not my point. The point is he’s almost 26 with little to show for his career so far. I don’t see why a team like the Marlins would be overly excited to acquire him.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Duran has a grand total of 252 mlb at bats. The jury is still out on him
I agree that the people writing him off were also likely ready to toss Pedroia over to the sharks after struggling both in '06 during his call-up and in his first several months of '07.
Duran was older than Pedroia but showed enough at AAA both in '21 and '22 and some good moments during both of his callups to commit to his development at the ML level.
Posters keep mentioning that the talent jump from AAA to ML is more vast than ever before. It stands to reason that the acclimation of prospects will be longer than in the past also. This is a good opportunity to stay with him to see what he's got. Maybe it's nothing and good lord I don't like that kid but I'm willing to change if his brain can mature and his game improves. Even if the brain stays soupy, but his game gets significantly better, I'll be happy to have him on the Sox. I've overlooked worse players personalities in the past and I still enjoy Picasso paintings and Woody Allen movies.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Obviously, Duran has been pretty terrible- no doubt about it. But what do we make of the learning curve and the unprecedented struggles that hitters entering the league seem to be going through? There are some highly touted young players having really bad years.

Torkelson 197/282/295
Adell 233/276/353
Brujan 167/230/246
Pache 159/203/224
Kelenic 140/219/291
Bart 180/288/331
Duran 237/286/382
Cruz 214/250/427
Abrams 231/280/322

You’ve got the outliers like Julio, Witt, Peña who are holding their won or course, but some of these guys who are struggling will surely be some useful big leaguers, right?

Maybe I’m way off here but it seems like the best hitters in baseball are as good as they’ve ever been - but there appears to be a much steeper drop off after that top whatever (10-20%?) group and it’s making it much harder to find useful role players, etc. Maybe the CoViD year is a factor, the balls….etc etc?
 

Marciano490

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Obviously, Duran has been pretty terrible- no doubt about it. But what do we make of the learning curve and the unprecedented struggles that hitters entering the league seem to be going through? There are some highly touted young players having really bad years.

Torkelson 197/282/295
Adell 233/276/353
Brujan 167/230/246
Pache 159/203/224
Kelenic 140/219/291
Bart 180/288/331
Duran 237/286/382
Cruz 214/250/427
Abrams 231/280/322

You’ve got the outliers like Julio, Witt, Peña who are holding their won or course, but some of these guys who are struggling will surely be some useful big leaguers, right?

Maybe I’m way off here but it seems like the best hitters in baseball are as good as they’ve ever been - but there appears to be a much steeper drop off after that top whatever (10-20%?) group and it’s making it much harder to find useful role players, etc. Maybe the CoViD year is a factor, the balls….etc etc?
You can add Riley Greene’s 237/312/338 line in there as well. I believe he was the #1 prospect after Torkelson’s and Rutschmann’s promotions. Still, aren’t most of these players 2-5 years younger than Duran?
 

Rovin Romine

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Obviously, Duran has been pretty terrible- no doubt about it. But what do we make of the learning curve and the unprecedented struggles that hitters entering the league seem to be going through? There are some highly touted young players having really bad years.

Torkelson 197/282/295
Adell 233/276/353
Brujan 167/230/246
Pache 159/203/224
Kelenic 140/219/291
Bart 180/288/331
Duran 237/286/382
Cruz 214/250/427
Abrams 231/280/322

You’ve got the outliers like Julio, Witt, Peña who are holding their won or course, but some of these guys who are struggling will surely be some useful big leaguers, right?

Maybe I’m way off here but it seems like the best hitters in baseball are as good as they’ve ever been - but there appears to be a much steeper drop off after that top whatever (10-20%?) group and it’s making it much harder to find useful role players, etc. Maybe the CoViD year is a factor, the balls….etc etc?
Interesting observation. Now I'm really curious to see a spread of first and/or second year hitters relative to prior years.
 

Marciano490

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Interesting observation. Now I'm really curious to see a spread of first and/or second year hitters relative to prior years.
I’d prefer a calendar…

It’d also be interesting to see those numbers relative to league averages, as hitting is still down across the board, no?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Is offensive value / WAR / production more highly concentrated than it used to be? Total offense is down- but is it distributed evenly across the spectrum of hitters (like, are the bottom 25% of hitters much worse than a decade ago compared to the middle 50%, etc etc).

I guess that’s my question or theory. But I have no idea how to really go about answering it. If true, though, it might put an end to my incessant whining about the Sox lack of depth / production at certain spots. It feels like they should be able to easily upgrade at several positions - but is that an outdated way of thinking, and is it significantly more difficult to find offense than it used to be? I dunno, just thinking out loud here.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Is offensive value / WAR / production more highly concentrated than it used to be? Total offense is down- but is it distributed evenly across the spectrum of hitters (like, are the bottom 25% of hitters much worse than a decade ago compared to the middle 50%, etc etc).

I guess that’s my question or theory. But I have no idea how to really go about answering it. If true, though, it might put an end to my incessant whining about the Sox lack of depth / production at certain spots. It feels like they should be able to easily upgrade at several positions - but is that an outdated way of thinking, and is it significantly more difficult to find offense than it used to be? I dunno, just thinking out loud here.
My stoner theory is that the jump from AAA to ML has grown wider so top prospects are going to need longer time to adjust after a promotion with likely some hot streaks and super cold streaks before leveling off for a bit.
It’ll be more difficult for top budget teams to be patient.

Also wondering if that may be the inverse of pitchers- talent gap between your non-ace (no.3-4 type) and your top 3-4 pitching prospects in AAA is possibly less?
 

Rovin Romine

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Is Bogaerts having the sort of contract year that teams going to pony up $30+ MIL per year for?
I'd say no, but I'm sure Boras has a folder.

That said, Xander and Tre Turner are neck and neck for the lead in SS OPS this year.

I'm not very well-versed on the competitive windows or prospects on all the teams but SF, LAD, and ATL might be interested in Xander.

Other FA SSs of note: Turner (LAD) , Andrus (option) (OAK), Swanson (ATL).

Last year's big signings: Correra 3/35, Seager 10/32, Baez 6/23, Story 6/23.
 

nvalvo

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I’m guessing someone will offer 28M max. 7 years.
Who, though? (Some teams may fit in multiple categories...)

Teams that rarely/never sign contracts on that scale (9):
MIL, CIN, OAK, TBR, MIA, CLE, COL, ARI, PIT

Teams with good young incumbents (7):
SD, SEA, HOU, CWS, TOR, STL, KCR

Teams with good veteran incumbents (3):
NYM, TEX, DET

Teams with a high-end SS prospect they probably don't want to block (3):
NYY, MIN, SFG

Teams that seem like they're on the wrong place in the success cycle for this kind of splash (3):
LAA, WSN, BAL

Remaining candidates (5):
BOS, PHL, CHC, ATL, LAD?

ATL and LAD have incumbents also departing in FA whom they may well wish to retain. The Cubs might want to get a further look at Nico Hoerner, who has been probably the best player on the team. PHL... could really use a veteran FA shortstop, but — can they afford another big contract on top of Harper, Realmuto, Wheeler, Schwarber and Castellanos?
 

Archer1979

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Who, though? (Some teams may fit in multiple categories...)

Teams that rarely/never sign contracts on that scale (9):
MIL, CIN, OAK, TBR, MIA, CLE, COL, ARI, PIT

Teams with good young incumbents (7):
SD, SEA, HOU, CWS, TOR, STL, KCR

Teams with good veteran incumbents (3):
NYM, TEX, DET

Teams with a high-end SS prospect they probably don't want to block (3):
NYY, MIN, SFG

Teams that seem like they're on the wrong place in the success cycle for this kind of splash (3):
LAA, WSN, BAL

Remaining candidates (5):
BOS, PHL, CHC, ATL, LAD?

ATL and LAD have incumbents also departing in FA whom they may well wish to retain. The Cubs might want to get a further look at Nico Hoerner, who has been probably the best player on the team. PHL... could really use a veteran FA shortstop, but — can they afford another big contract on top of Harper, Realmuto, Wheeler, Schwarber and Castellanos?
With all the X talk, let's not forget that Correa is probably going to opt out as well. That would generate some competition on the open market.

https://www.minnesotasportsfan.com/carlos-correa-will-opt-out-of-contract-after-season-minnesota-twins/#:~:text=According to esteemed New York,offseason, barring a catastrophic injury.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Story only got what he got because he waited too long and was the last man standing. If Boagerts accepts a deal like that, I think it comes in Feb and it’s not with the Sox. He can make a case for being a far better offensive player than Story; more durable, proven success in the post-season etc. Story is better defensively…..but the Sox are playing Bogaerts at SS, right?

Right or wrong- offering Boagerts, who has been here a decade and won multiple championships, the same deal you gave an inferior player to play 2b, seems unlikely to me to result in a deal. You at least have to come in higher than that.
 

Mr. Wednesday

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Of course he gets a say. However, players don't hire Scott Boras as their agent because they're going to take a team-friendly discount.
The Sox were able to sign Varitek to very reasonable contracts, certainly not in keeping with the popular perception of Boras clients always taking absolute top dollar.

I don't know what X wants, but Boras works for X, not vice versa.
 

YTF

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The Sox were able to sign Varitek to very reasonable contracts, certainly not in keeping with the popular perception of Boras clients always taking absolute top dollar.

I don't know what X wants, but Boras works for X, not vice versa.
One thing we need to remember about statements like this is that while you're 100% correct, we don't know how involved Borgaerts or any player cares to be in the process.
 

amfox1

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The Sox were able to sign Varitek to very reasonable contracts, certainly not in keeping with the popular perception of Boras clients always taking absolute top dollar.

I don't know what X wants, but Boras works for X, not vice versa.
Here are the two main contracts signed by Varitek.

3yr/$14.9mm (2002-2004, age 30-32) - coming off a down season, 1st time free agent

4yr/$40mm (2005-2008, age 33-36) - no other team was a serious bidder since Varitek wanted to exhaust negotiations with BOS before entertaining other offers (immediately after 1st WS win), negotiated no-trade clause & made Red Sox change their no-trade policy

**

We'll see if X wants to exhaust negotiations with BOS before entertaining other offers. Wouldn't bet on it.
 

Harry Hooper

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One thing we need to remember about statements like this is that while you're 100% correct, we don't know how involved Borgaerts or any player cares to be in the process.
Given Bogarts seemed to not understand this week he had a NTC, he's probably not too involved.
 

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It could also be the stress of thinking the FO would come to him saying they had a trade in place and asking him to waive his NTC. He could be relieved that he wouldn’t have to go through that process of even thinking about it.
 

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I still am on board with Chaim - the farm system IS decidedly better thanks to his sagacity - but the next week will be a litmus test on how he approaches the team long-term and short-term. However, it goes well beyond Mr. Bloom to John Henry and the other owners. They are now perceived as Tampa Bay wannabes in a market whose fans currently pay the highest prices in the game and whose expectations are in line as a big market team.
 

Van Everyman

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Soooo, Xander doesn't get a say in things? It's only big, bad Boras that's standing in the way of extending Bogaerts on a "team-friendly-ish" deal? It's interesting how the player's autonomy is so often minimized when we discuss contracts. It's usually the GM for not going far enough to sign a player or it's the agent pushing for the most dollars and the player is just along for the ride either way.
That’s not what I mean. Xander has spoken at least twice this year about wanting to get a deal done, and Boras has contradicted him in the press. You don’t have to be wearing a tinfoil hat to surmise that there is a little bit of daylight at the bare minimum between the player and his agent. It seems pretty clear to me that Xander would prefer to resign with the Red Sox. Which isn’t to say you have to get him for a song. And of course Boras doesn’t want to negotiate through the media.

The Sox, as I’ve said before, should be thinking like the Dodgers with their Rays-esque approach of developing the farm but using your deep pockets to sign (and keep) guys, as opposed to emptying the farm for guys though trades a la DD. For Henry this should work, assuming the farm produces MLB-caliber guys and a few studs.

So what does that mean for this team? Deal JD for prospects. If I’m Chaim, I see Xander as a rock for my lineup and offer more AAV and fewer years if I can. I back up the Brinks truck for Devers. And I try to sign one of the elite starters if they hit the market at big dollars (a la Price).

Vaz I try to re-sign given the lack of depth there unless somebody offers a huge payload – that may seem unlikely to us given his up and down tenure here but experienced catchers with 750 OPS who can hit elite speed can be an absolute spark plug for a team in the playoffs. He’s a guy I wouldn’t let go of unless someone (the Mets?) ponies up.

The Dodgers, not the Rays, John.
 

amfox1

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https://theathletic.com/3462220/2022/07/30/phillies-trade-deadline-pitchers/

If the Red Sox sell, Nathan Eovaldi is a natural match because president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has acquired him once before. But there are red flags with Eovaldi, who spent more than a month on the injured list with back inflammation. Eovaldi’s fastball averaged 97 mph in the first two months of the season. That dipped to 94 mph on June 8, his last start before the IL stint. The velocity has not returned in the three starts since his return. He’s sat 95 mph. Eovaldi’s home run rate has more than doubled from a season ago. He would still represent an upgrade for the Phillies, but there might be a disagreement on how he should be properly valued on the market.
 

Jimbodandy

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I still am on board with Chaim - the farm system IS decidedly better thanks to his sagacity - but the next week will be a litmus test on how he approaches the team long-term and short-term. However, it goes well beyond Mr. Bloom to John Henry and the other owners. They are now perceived as Tampa Bay wannabes in a market whose fans currently pay the highest prices in the game and whose expectations are in line as a big market team.
"They are now perceived as..." - the perception of something in the passive voice too.

Who is saying that they are "Tampa Bay wannabes"? Let's start there.
 

amfox1

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Per Spotrac

Red Sox payroll $203.4mm (vs. 2021 payroll $187.1mm)
Rays payroll $88.7mm (vs. 2021 payroll $70.8mm)

Whoever "they" are probably should check their facts.