I think the chances Vaz signing for 2/15 are approaching zero. That's basically retread/rehab money (Michael Wacha, rich hill); not a guy whos likely to be coming off a couple win season as a 31 year old starting catcher. Have to think its at least a 2/25 or 3/33 type deal; possibly more.
Red Sox Trade Deadline 2022
- Thread starter bosockboy
- Start date
You’re probably right; and the Sox may have to do that. Therein lies the teams problem; they have a ton of holes to fill in the off-season and it looks like 1b is the only one they can fill internally. So they will either have it pay premium prices to get the upper echelon FA’s; or wait to see who falls and will sign a short term or short money deal.
(St. Louis seems like a natural destination for Bogaerts and Eovaldi. Is Tyler O’Neill a guy worth looking at? Fits the profile of the Bloom type, several years of control left but really all over the place in terms of performance).
(St. Louis seems like a natural destination for Bogaerts and Eovaldi. Is Tyler O’Neill a guy worth looking at? Fits the profile of the Bloom type, several years of control left but really all over the place in terms of performance).
Without a certified stud waiting in the wings, the devil you know might be the best choice.
If not Soto, they should go all in on Ohtani, if he's going to be on the block, because he fills two needs.
That said, I'm not sure they have the pieces to swing either deal. I'm not sure who the centerpiece would be.
If not Soto, they should go all in on Ohtani, if he's going to be on the block, because he fills two needs.
That said, I'm not sure they have the pieces to swing either deal. I'm not sure who the centerpiece would be.
Every time Vázquez gets his OPS up over .700 people seem to want to keep him in town for life. His defense has been in decline for years and he's a net-negative pitch framer these days. Send him to the Mets, Giants or Cardinals or another NL team with question marks behind the plate. We have a catcher who's put up a .983 OPS in Worcester over his last 184 PAs. There are many catchers on the market this offseason. We'd have plenty of money to chase Contreras, but Narvaez, Zunino and Sanchez are all available likely cheaply too.
Edit: I'm sure Vaz has plenty of intangible value to pitchers. I don't know, I'm not a big Vaz guy and think Contreras is a big upgrade, but I suppose I wouldn't hate re-upping him for 2/$10 or so.
Edit: I'm sure Vaz has plenty of intangible value to pitchers. I don't know, I'm not a big Vaz guy and think Contreras is a big upgrade, but I suppose I wouldn't hate re-upping him for 2/$10 or so.
O'Neill's interesting, but I'd suspect Bloom would want someone with more than two years of control. He's got a serious whiff problem and looks like a project similar to Franchy Cordero -- though O'Neill did put it together for a full solid season.
Hasn't Ohtani more or less ruled out signing with any team not on the West Coast? Maybe something changed. If I'm Andrew Friedman, I'm probably weighing a Soto trade against the strong chance I can lure Ohtani away from the Angels' ineptitude a year and a half from now.
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If they think Casas is Rookie of the Year good, there's potential gain bringing him up to start next year instead of doing it this year.
Xander and Eovaldi for O'Hoppe and Painter. Does Dombrowski say no? Does X say no?
Edit: Hell throw Vaz in just for shits and gigs
Edit: Hell throw Vaz in just for shits and gigs
If they think Casas is ROY good and they bring him up this year, then he won't qualify for ROY next season ... which works to the team's advantage down the road contractually.
What's the potential gain of waiting?
There are two types of trades I would like to see the Red Sox make before the deadline:
1. Trading young controllable assets with team control to franchises that don't want to pay their newly arbitration eligible players. For example, Duran, Downs and Dalbec for Laureano or Sean Murphy (both seems like too much but maybe the salary threat for newly arb eligible for a franchise like the A's is enough to make it palatable for them).
2. Trading our impending free agents for younger Major league ready talent and or prospects. That means Eovaldi, JD and Vaz go. I suppose Hill and Wacha could go too but the Sox do need to get through the end of the season and they both offer something in terms of eating innings.
There is no other way than for this team to be a real seller after what we have seen the past two weeks and the injury to Sale.
1. Trading young controllable assets with team control to franchises that don't want to pay their newly arbitration eligible players. For example, Duran, Downs and Dalbec for Laureano or Sean Murphy (both seems like too much but maybe the salary threat for newly arb eligible for a franchise like the A's is enough to make it palatable for them).
2. Trading our impending free agents for younger Major league ready talent and or prospects. That means Eovaldi, JD and Vaz go. I suppose Hill and Wacha could go too but the Sox do need to get through the end of the season and they both offer something in terms of eating innings.
There is no other way than for this team to be a real seller after what we have seen the past two weeks and the injury to Sale.
It's hard to make a good trade proposal, and I'm not trying to give you a hard time here, but if you go by the numbers at baseballtradevalues.com, this deal as proposed is so lopsided that if you added in both Mayer and Yorke, it would be approximately even.
Murphy 59.1
Laureano 45.5
Total 104.6
Mayer 55.4
Yorke 21.2
Duran 17.4
Dalbec 6.9
Downs 3.5
Total 104.4
Right. I did this too.
And Baseball Trade Values does not factor in the fact that both Murphy and Laureano are about to get huge raise and I have no way to calculate that delta.
The difference in value for the 3 for 1 I think is more negligible (28 to 45). What BTV says is a fair trade is a huge overpay in my opinion and would be GM suicide.
EDIT: I would really like to see someone go back to trades from recent history and feed them into BTV and see what they come up with. Anytime I put trades in there, they do not really make any sense to me.
That site definitely has some issues and should not be taken as gospel, but I don't think any of those Sox players have much real value at the moment. A lot of team control, but the results for all have been very disappointing, as you guys know better than me.
I do think that the A's need to move Murphy this winter at the latest, they drafted yet another catcher in the 1st round and already had two other top 100 C prospects, but I think your offer there is pretty low.
I think @jon abbey is right that you aren't likely creating fair value here, despite your worthy caveat regarding the pay hike the A's players are about to get. But I like how you're thinking.
I'm not convinced this team is out of it. I still think that if they can just get to the playoffs somehow, they can make some noise. Getting there will be the tough part, obviously. But all they gotta do is get there, and they're obviously not out of that race yet, not by a long shot. So I don't want to give up on the season. But I also don't want to deal their big prospects for immediate help unless it's for Soto. Then I'm all in.
Why would St. Louis be interested in Bogaerts? They have Tommy Edman there who is a top 5 bWAR player this season and has over a 1.0 advantage over X. He has done a great job setting the table for the meat of that great STL lineup.
Edman has a sub .700 OPS and could easily move to 2B where he is a superior defender.
Where do you move Gorman then? He is their 2B of the near future as long as Arenado is on the team.
It’s a half season. Gorman can be a super sub and then 2B will be there next year.
The Braves lost Adam Duvall for the season today. Duvall hasn't been hitting, but he's a good defensive outfielder who has been the part of a platoon this season ... just in case the Red Sox have any good defensive outfielders that could be traded for a lottery ticket
I thought about this a bit. What kind of package would Eovaldi get?
He has a 6.0 fWAR over the last year and a half, mostly concentrated in last year's excellent (and slightly lucky) performance. There's no real stuff deterioration and the pinpoint control is still there, resulting in few baserunners. But he's had a bad slider in many games, and batters have teed off on it year, resulting in a bloated 2.15 HR/9.
Still, he's been mostly good. Only 2 of his 14 starts have been duds -- the most recent one post-ASB and the dreadful 5/17 game against Houston (5 home runs in 1.2 IP).
Here are some recent deals for rental starting pitchers (and their fWAR over preceding 1.5 seasons) over the last half decade:
2021
Kyle Gibson (2.0 fWAR*), Ian Kennedy and Hans Crouse to Phillies for SP Spencer Howard (50, #33 overall)
Jose Berrios (3.5 fWAR*) to Blue Jays for SS/CF Austin Martin (50, #44 overall) + SP Simeon Woods Richardson (45, #72 overall)
Tyler Anderson (2.1 fWAR*) to Mariners for C Carter Bins (40) + SP Joaquin Tejada (40)
*includes shortened 2020 season
2019
Marcus Stroman (4.9 fWAR) to Mets for SP Anthony Kay (45) and Simeon Woods Richardson (45+)
2018
Kevin Gausman (4.1 fWAR) + Darren O'Day to Braves for RP Evan Phillips (40), 3B Jean Carlos Encarnacion (40+), C Brett Cumberland (45+), SP Bruce Zimmerman (35+), international spending
Lance Lynn (1.9 fWAR) to Yankees for INF Tyler Austin (40) and SP Luis Rijo (40)
J.A. Happ (4.9 fWAR) to Yankees for INF Brandon Drury (45+) and OF Billy McKinney (40+)
Nathan Eovaldi (0.7 fWAR) to Red Sox for SP/RP Jalen Beeks (45)
2017
Yu Darvish (5.5 fWAR) to Dodgers for Willie Calhoun (#89 overall prospect)
2016
Wade Miley (3.5 fWAR) to Orioles for Ariel Miranda
Andrew Cashner (1.9 fWAR) to Marlins for 1B/OF Josh Naylor, SP Jarred Cosart, RP Carter Capps
That's a pretty wide range. Eovaldi’s 2021 was immensely valuable, arguably the most among SPs in the AL. His age (32) and injury history would put him below Berrios, probably. But maybe something in the range of Darvish (similar injury history, so-so) final year), Gibson and Stroman could be comps here?
O’Hoppe and Painter on the Phillies have been discussed. Would Eovaldi be enough to get, say, Royce Lewis (#62 per Fangraphs, and out for the year)? Looking at teams like the Phillies, Twins, Dodgers, Mets, Cardinals, etc. The problem is, I’m sure no one is in on Eovaldi until Soto, Castillo, Mahle and Montas are settled.
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Cross posting from the "In season" thread.
We're now 9 days from the trading deadline and while there is plenty of baseball left to play with a WC birth well in reach, the team is struggling mightily and close to 1/2 of the ideal 26 man roster is on the IL with few if any coming back before the deadline. With each loss the idea of moving players who might contribute elsewhere looks more likely. If it hasn't been done already, I think it's time to have a discussion with Bogaerts about both his immediate and long term futures. See what it takes to extend him, see what teams he would be willing to be traded to and ask about his willingness to consider coming back if traded a la Aroldis Chapman. ATM he may be the most valuable asset on the team that could be moved to a contender. Depending on what additional needs the other team might have, perhaps there is a deal that could land a cost controlled MLB ready player that can fill a need on the Sox roster.
We're now 9 days from the trading deadline and while there is plenty of baseball left to play with a WC birth well in reach, the team is struggling mightily and close to 1/2 of the ideal 26 man roster is on the IL with few if any coming back before the deadline. With each loss the idea of moving players who might contribute elsewhere looks more likely. If it hasn't been done already, I think it's time to have a discussion with Bogaerts about both his immediate and long term futures. See what it takes to extend him, see what teams he would be willing to be traded to and ask about his willingness to consider coming back if traded a la Aroldis Chapman. ATM he may be the most valuable asset on the team that could be moved to a contender. Depending on what additional needs the other team might have, perhaps there is a deal that could land a cost controlled MLB ready player that can fill a need on the Sox roster.
Berrios wasn’t a rental - he was signed thru ‘22.
I’d be trying to acquire a major league player for him; don’t think the Sox need more prospects.
I’ve floated something like Eovaldi to SD for Clevinger- is that in the realm of possibilities? Looking for players with some control left seems like what the Sox need the most.
Think Nate needs to show he’s healthy and can retain his velocity throughout a start to have any real value, unfortunately.
I’d be trying to acquire a major league player for him; don’t think the Sox need more prospects.
I’ve floated something like Eovaldi to SD for Clevinger- is that in the realm of possibilities? Looking for players with some control left seems like what the Sox need the most.
Think Nate needs to show he’s healthy and can retain his velocity throughout a start to have any real value, unfortunately.
Lewis does seem high, but his stock has fallen the last few years after injuries. There’s no need for Sanó, who is hurt and himself a FA this winter.
You’re right, my mistake. Berrios had another year of control, which explains that return.
Clevinger is a free agent at the end of the year, and didn’t really come back effective with the same velocity. I’m not a big fan.
I think you’re right the Sox don’t need more prospects and have a ton to put on the 40 — unless of course we’re about to trade a bunch of them for someone like Soto.
Dammit, for some reason I thought Clevinger had a year left. So that makes absolutely no sense, my bad. But I think that’s the kind of move I’d be looking at, in terms of looking for major leaguers who have control left; the Pivetta model I guess.
Sano hasn't been good in 3 years and has a buy out unless the Sox want to trade for the right to pay him $14m next year for some reason. They'd be better off getting nothing.
I would think Eovaldi to MIN might get OF/DH Matt Wallner (MIN MLBP #8, 24YO, 45FV, just promoted to AAA) and RHP Louie Varland (MIN MLBP #12, 24YO, 40FV, AA). Both are rule 5 eligible, so MIN may be willing to ship them both out to make the playoffs this year and clear up their potential Rule 5 bottleneck.
Assuming the international draft is not agreed to tomorrow, it seems almost assured that the Red Sox will trade off net $20mm in salaried players in order to get below the luxury tax threshold, because of the comp pick ramifications. Eovaldi and CVaz would do it, and they could collect comp picks for X (and Sale, in the unlikely event he opts out) and, potentially, JDM.
Eovaldi’s velocity has been down 2mph from his season average for 3 starts (1 before DL stint, 2 after coming back). Something’s not right with him and the DL stint didn’t fix it. It’s a shame because he would have brought back the best prospects, but no team will give up serious prospects without knowing what the issue is with him.
I wonder if either Crawford or Winchowski could be part of a trade. They both currently look like effective four or five starters. Crawfords Xera, Fip and Xfip are all better then his ERA and he has a much high K rate then Winchowski. They are both similar in terms of walk rate. Perhaps a team thinks one of them can take a leap forward, I would rather keep Crawford, and they can be a piece to bring back Sean Murphy or an outfielder.
If they're effective starting pitchers at the major league level (which they appear to be), cheap and under team control for years, I would imagine that holding onto them would be the preference. I'd always rather have steady cost-effective pitching depth.
If they decide to be sellers, they should probably keep both. There will be room for them in 2023. I'd much rather keep Crawford.
Regardless of what has happened so far; they can still get back into this if they look forward. Winning a series against the Guardians - a team whose OF may be worse than the Sox - would be a good start. I would love to see them demote Downs and Bello, dump Bradley, and find a competent starter and 2b to get through the next few weeks, at the least. It also seems like they could move out some FA’s to be and still fight for a WC if they can get the right kind of players in return.
I agree with that, but in order to get value you need to trade value. If the Sox want to get something like Sean Murphy then I can see one of the decent cost controlled starters being of great interest to the A's
Yeah, there's a time to be optimistic and a time to be realistic. Right before the trade deadline is the time to be realistic. Teams that are going to trade for upcoming FAs are not trading pieces that will help BOS win a WC spot.
I hope the org either buys or sells, not both (lean strongly toward selling and getting under the luxury tax threshold, which will maximize comp picks for X, Nate and possibly JDM, if not traded).
What I'd like to see:
JDM and Schreiber to NYM for 50FV & 45FV prospect (desperate buyer, deep pockets, decent prospect base)
Nate to MIN for 45FV & 40FV prospect (in the race, decent prospects, could possibly subsidize some cash to maximize prospects)
CVaz to STL for 40+FV prospect (although Molina is supposed to be back in Aug, no assurance he will be healthy down the stretch)
I assume no market for Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Hernandez or Plawecki. I'd keep X unless the trade package significantly exceeds comp pick value (obv, X would need to waive no-trade in any trade).
I guess my thought was looking for Pivetta type deals (or Lester/Cespedes, Lackey/Kelly and Craig but a better outcome). I don’t really see this team needing more AA and below prospects, especially not those who need to be placed on the 40-man; unless the goal is to flip a lot of them. They need major leaguers who can contribute within the next year. The good news is they don’t really need to be all that picky; they need multiple OF, C, SS or 2B, pitchers, etc.
I think the idea would be to flip some of the prospects they might get at the deadline. I imagine it's a lot easier to make deals for young, near-major league ready players in the off-season than at the trade deadline. For one, you can cast a wider net rather than be limited to just the buyers who need a specific position filled immediately. Generally, it's easier to find what you're looking for if you've got 20+ places to shop than just a couple.
Something else to keep in mind with an eye toward the future is that there's a bit of a reckoning coming for the whole league as far as 40-man roster crunches and rule 5 eligibility protections. The result may be a whole lot of non-tenders and trades are coming this winter that could shake up a bunch of rosters. If Bloom can use the next week to turn some expiring contracts into a load of prospects that haven't yet topped AA, he might be able to re-distribute them this winter for some closer to ready players that other teams don't have the room to hold on to.
Steven Kwan and Nolan Jones have been better than anyone in Boston's outfield. Jones is a small sample size, but is a former highly regarded prospect who hasn't missed a step since being promoted to Cleveland. Even Myles Straw is having a pretty good month. The Guardians outfield has no power in 2 of the 3 spots as it's currently constructed, but I'd much rather have their outfield situation than the Red Sox.
I'm less of a "trade Schreiber" guy than a "Schreiber (and Whitlock) make a Houck trade palatable" guy but both make sense.
If Strahm wants to go back to the rotation and otherwise likes it here, I'd like to see the Sox offer him a modest, 2/$15M type extension to keep him around. No real financial risk and now that he's healthy, there's decent upside. (Strahm was #72 as a starting pitcher on the FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects in 2017, ahead of -- amazingly -- Walker Buehler, Brandon Woodruff, Soto and Tatis Jr.) Wouldn’t be far-fetched to get a couple of Mike Minor-type seasons (‘18-19 vintage) from him in the rotation.
That would also free up someone from the Winckowski/Crawford camp for a trade. I’m pretty intrigued by Crawford. He's been really excellent since his June call-up -- a 2.97 FIP in six starts against Tampa (twice, basically), NYY, Toronto, St. Louis and Seattle. Is he someone we could pencil into the ‘23 rotation? Is he interesting to other teams?
If Strahm wants to go back to the rotation and otherwise likes it here, I'd like to see the Sox offer him a modest, 2/$15M type extension to keep him around. No real financial risk and now that he's healthy, there's decent upside. (Strahm was #72 as a starting pitcher on the FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects in 2017, ahead of -- amazingly -- Walker Buehler, Brandon Woodruff, Soto and Tatis Jr.) Wouldn’t be far-fetched to get a couple of Mike Minor-type seasons (‘18-19 vintage) from him in the rotation.
That would also free up someone from the Winckowski/Crawford camp for a trade. I’m pretty intrigued by Crawford. He's been really excellent since his June call-up -- a 2.97 FIP in six starts against Tampa (twice, basically), NYY, Toronto, St. Louis and Seattle. Is he someone we could pencil into the ‘23 rotation? Is he interesting to other teams?
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This is the point that people sometimes lose sight of: This year's trade deadline would just be the first part of a two-step rebuild. What they do or don't do now needs to be viewed in conjunction with what they do after the season.
I'm less of the mind to try to get someone who can help make a playoff push this season than I am wanting to create something stable and sustainable
A bit of a nonsequitur, but has MLB considered expanding the 40-man roster by a few slots in light of the expanded roster sizes?
If it's a good market for selling, then selling everything not chained down makes some sense.
Coming up with potential trade proposals seems to be as difficult as it's ever been.
We have an expanded playoff format which in my opinion throws off the balance of buyers and sellers. More marginal teams that can reasonably believe they will enter the playoffs should = more buyers. My intuition is that this makes being a buyer more expensive in terms of prospects and makes being a seller more valuable than in the past. It appears Bloom navigated his free agency in such a way last year that if team was bad he could sell a bunch of his 1-2 yr deals at the deadline turning cash into prospects and present value into future value. The team was good and he didn't get the chance. This year the team is bad/injured and he certainly does have an opportunity.
If we accept the thesis that this team is unlikely to make the playoffs and if they did that it would be extremely unlikely to have strong expectations of making a deep run than you should 100% sell.
I'm firmly in the seller's camp and think they should try to benefit in two ways.
1) Sell every pending potential free agent. (Eovaldi, Xander, JDM, Vazquez, Kike, Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Plawecki, JBJ) It does not matter if you think you want them back in 2023. You sell and generate future value now.
2) Play the kids. Play the prospects. As long as you are not concerned about service time or maybe destroying potential trade value bring them on up. Let's evaluate what we have against MLB level talent for the next 70-80 games.
If the team is bad... who cares. Get a better draft pick next year. If they somehow get hit with a bit of magic/fairy dust and make it in... well then it will be more fun IMO to watch than the current roster.
I'm not going to pretend I know the value that we could return from the FAs but some value is always better than no value. There are only 2 players I would want them to go out and actively buy.
Ohtani or Soto given the assumption you'd have the ability to extend and lock-in.
I'm excited about the future. We are going to only have around 75M on the books ,without knowing Devers Arb number maybe 75-78, after the Xander opt out. The farm is night and day better than 2 years ago and I like all the small value moves Bloom is doing to put in a good position for that next window.
We have an expanded playoff format which in my opinion throws off the balance of buyers and sellers. More marginal teams that can reasonably believe they will enter the playoffs should = more buyers. My intuition is that this makes being a buyer more expensive in terms of prospects and makes being a seller more valuable than in the past. It appears Bloom navigated his free agency in such a way last year that if team was bad he could sell a bunch of his 1-2 yr deals at the deadline turning cash into prospects and present value into future value. The team was good and he didn't get the chance. This year the team is bad/injured and he certainly does have an opportunity.
If we accept the thesis that this team is unlikely to make the playoffs and if they did that it would be extremely unlikely to have strong expectations of making a deep run than you should 100% sell.
I'm firmly in the seller's camp and think they should try to benefit in two ways.
1) Sell every pending potential free agent. (Eovaldi, Xander, JDM, Vazquez, Kike, Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Plawecki, JBJ) It does not matter if you think you want them back in 2023. You sell and generate future value now.
2) Play the kids. Play the prospects. As long as you are not concerned about service time or maybe destroying potential trade value bring them on up. Let's evaluate what we have against MLB level talent for the next 70-80 games.
If the team is bad... who cares. Get a better draft pick next year. If they somehow get hit with a bit of magic/fairy dust and make it in... well then it will be more fun IMO to watch than the current roster.
I'm not going to pretend I know the value that we could return from the FAs but some value is always better than no value. There are only 2 players I would want them to go out and actively buy.
Ohtani or Soto given the assumption you'd have the ability to extend and lock-in.
I'm excited about the future. We are going to only have around 75M on the books ,without knowing Devers Arb number maybe 75-78, after the Xander opt out. The farm is night and day better than 2 years ago and I like all the small value moves Bloom is doing to put in a good position for that next window.