Riding the Train: the 2013 Miami Dolphins

[pdaj]

Miami Dolphins' owner, Stephen Ross, addressed the media today, stating that he feels as though the organization is on "the right track". Reading between the lines, he appears to be completely sold on Philbin, hopeful on Tannehill, and in wait and see mode on Ireland. Here's a link to a portion of the press conference:

http://landing.newsi...sh&VID=24172701

There's no question that this upcoming off-season is Jeff Ireland's time to either put up or step down. He'll have nearly 50 million in free cap space to retain his own FA and add outside talent. In addition, the Fins own 5 picks within the top 82 in this year's NFL draft. If Ryan Tannehill's going to make "the leap" next season, he's going to need a few more play-makers added to Mike Sherman's offense.

The Greg Jennings-to-Miami talk has been loud and consistent since Jennings when down with an early season injury and Cobb emerged as a big time player in Green Bay. As good as Jennings is ... the Packers don't need him; and hence, won't pay him. Rotoworld chimed in again today.

http://www.rotoworld...2/greg-jennings

The Miami Herald expects the Dolphins to "consider making a serious run" at free agent Greg Jennings this offseason.

Jennings knows Dolphins coach Joe Philbin's offense from their time together in Green Bay. It's about as logical an offseason fit we can contemplate in 2013 free agency. Philbin has stated publicly that he doesn't believe free agency is the way to build a team, but the cap-rich Fins can afford to drop some coin on an established wideout, and Jennings would perfectly fit their mold.

I like the idea of Mike Wallace, but Jennings might be the better fit. He's definitely Philbin's kind of player.

As for Miami's own FA, here's the list:

Unrestricted FA:

Reggie Bush
Jake Long
Brian Hartline
Anthony Fasano
Matt Moore
Sean Smith
Randy Starks
Chris Clemons
Tyrone Culver
Jonathan Freeny
Nate Garner
Bryan McCann
Tony McDaniel
Nate Kaeding

Restricted/Exclusive FA

Austin Spitler
Jonathon Amaya
Jeron Mastrud
Marlon Moore
Pat Devlin
R.J. Stanford
Patrick Brown


I like Reggie Bush -- a lot. But I think Miami would be best served to hand the reigns over to Lamar Miller next season. He's explosive, more effective between the tackles, and cheap as hell. Combined with Daniel Thomas, who also impressed when healthy, I think the Dolphins running game can remain successful enough to warrant spending Reggie's cash elsewhere.

IMO, Starks and Hartline are my lone "must signs", but Sean Smith is close, considering how difficult it is to find CB talent. He's good, young; but nowhere near elite. Unless the money gets ridiculous, he's almost certain to return. If Long's willing to sign a fair, incentive-laden deal, I'd be happy to see him retained; and I'd welcome Fasano back to serve as the blocking TE. I think a legit, play-making TE will be a primary target for Ireland/Philbin in FA and NFL Draft.

Speaking of the Draft, here's Miami's designated draft slots:

Round 1 - #12
Round 2 - #42
Round 2 - #54
Round 3 - #77
Round 3 - #82
Round 4 - #108 to #112

The Dolphin's also own a 5th and two 7's; and they'll almost certainly be given a 6th-round compensatory pick.

In other news, the Miami will also sport a new logo in '13. Here's the one that was leaked a couple weeks ago:

 

 

[lostjumper]

I'll admit to not following the dolphins much this year, but just a couple years ago Jake Long was considered one of the best left tackles in the league. Has he really regressed to the point where you don't consider him a must sign?

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Wow, hate that logo.

 

[jk333]

I'll admit to not following the dolphins much this year, but just a couple years ago Jake Long was considered one of the best left tackles in the league. Has he really regressed to the point where you don't consider him a must sign?

They changed the blocking system and he's had injuries. At this point, he'd be nice to keep on a team friendly contract but is far from a must sign. He's still a good player but he's replaceable. Also, Miami's window is say, 2-5 years out, at which point he'll be regressing even more quickly. If you can resign him on a 1/2 year deal, that's appealing but a 4 or 5 year deal isn't. (I mean for guaranteed money) My assumption is that someone will outbid the Dolphins with a 4 year contract for him.

I'll let pdag jump in more, I only got to watch a few Miami games this year.

 

[dwainw]

I'll admit to not following the dolphins much this year, but just a couple years ago Jake Long was considered one of the best left tackles in the league. Has he really regressed to the point where you don't consider him a must sign?

By many accounts, yes. I don't live in or near Florida, but from most of the local stuff I read, injuries seem to be taking their toll. I don't know if it's his biceps or his knee or what. In addition, it sounds like Jonathan Martin filled in admirably for him and hasn't hit his ceiling.

As for Bush v. Miller, I get that Miller's cheaper, but Bush is a proven commodity and the jury's way out on Miller. Makes me leery. I do think they'll end up going with a Miller/Thomas tandem in the end, however, while working to jack up their WR/TE corps.

Wow, hate that logo.

I don't know--it could grow on me. This team has worn me down so much, a little visual diversion might be refreshing.

 

[pdaj]

They changed the blocking system and he's had injuries. At this point, he'd be nice to keep on a team friendly contract but is far from a must sign. He's still a good player but he's replaceable. Also, Miami's window is say, 2-5 years out, at which point he'll be regressing even more quickly. If you can resign him on a 1/2 year deal, that's appealing but a 4 or 5 year deal isn't. (I mean for guaranteed money.) My assumption is that someone will outbid the Dolphins with a 4 year contract for him.

I'll let pdaj jump in more, I only got to watch a few Miami games this year.

JK, you nailed it. Long came into the league as a great athlete and big mauler; but over the course of the last few seasons (due to injuries), he's become just a mauler. In the zone blocking scheme within Sherman's offense, that makes him less than an ideal fit. If he can remain healthy, he's still (arguably) worth 7-8 million per year. But 9-12 annually? No chance.

Long became the highest paid LT in NFL history the day he was drafted; and it's reported that his wife is "best friends" with Tannehill's wife. Thus, he might be content to take less to stay in Miami.

As for Bush v. Miller, I get that Miller's cheaper, but Bush is a proven commodity and the jury's way out on Miller. Makes me leery. I do think they'll end up going with a Miller/Thomas tandem in the end, however, while working to jack up their WR/TE corps.

Bush worked out in Miami better than I expected, but he was still underutilized in Sherman's offense. He had only 35 receptions for under 300 yards, and he was often spelled by Thomas/Miller to keep him healthy and/or propel the between-the-tackles running game. From what I've seen in watching every game this season, it appears as though Philbin/Sherman prefer a downhill runner to complicate a multi-receiver/TE passing game.

Reggie made 5 million per season with the Dolphins, and I think he may be able get close to that elsewhere, perhaps for a shitty team looking to sell tickets. I just don't see the Dolphins willing to match that coin. IMO, Miami sees him as a nice complimentary play-maker; someone you want to get the ball to about 10-15 times per game. But he won't carry your offense. Keep in mind -- Darren Sproles made 2.4 million in 2012.

With the need to resign players like Starks, Smith, Hartline, and Clemons; while also looking to add talent such as Jennings and Finley, I'm not sure the cap space will be there. But if Bush can be signed to a reasonable deal, I'd be all for it. Play-makers are play-makers, and the Dolphins need more, not less.

Wow, hate that logo.

I'm not in love with it, but it's sure as hell better than a Dolphin squeezing into a corny-ass helmet.

 

[Icculus]

I think it's an improvement over what they had and yet it reminds me of a plane which makes it easier to dislike. Kind of ties the Jets hate in with the Dolphins.

 

[dwainw]

I'm not in love with it, but it's sure as hell better than a Dolphin squeezing into a corny-ass helmet.

I'm generally a traditionalist. Case in point, I see no reason to ever make any drastic changes to what the Red Sox have going. Simplicity is good. In the case of the Dolphins, though, their logo is basically a caricature at this point. Playing shitty for a few decades will do that. Let's change it up, start winning Super Bowls, and bring back the helmeted Dolphin on throwback days.

Then again, if they start winning Super Bowls, I won't give a single fluffy turdpuff what they're wearing.

Edit: Hmm. I did not mean "helmeted Dolphin" in a euphemistic sense. Although that would make for an interesting logo.

 

[Shelterdog]

By many accounts, yes. I don't live in or near Florida, but from most of the local stuff I read, injuries seem to be taking their toll. I don't know if it's his biceps or his knee or what. In addition, it sounds like Jonathan Martin filled in admirably for him and hasn't hit his ceiling.

Martin was godawful in the Pats game, most notably when he got bullrushed by a corner and gave up a sack. Young tackles can develop and he has size and athletic ability but I'd be very, very nervous about playing Martin at LT.

 

[pdaj]

Martin was godawful in the Pats game, most notably when he got bullrushed by a corner and gave up a sack. Young tackles can develop and he has size and athletic ability but I'd be very, very nervous about playing Martin at LT.

It might not be a huge hit with fans -- but if some of the necessary offensive weapons can be added via FA, Miami could draft a tackle with their 1st overall pick. Although I'm holding out hope that Dee Milliner falls to the Fins at 12.

I think the ideal situation is for Long to re-sign at a reasonable deal -- but if he doesn't, I'm certainly not sold on Martin (yet) based on what I've seen during his time filling in. He was absolutely abused in certain instances.

Is this somewhat expected for a rookie LT? Absolutely. But I'm not just going to assume that he makes the leap next season.

 

[dwainw]

Word from the Miami Herald is that after Daniel Thomas's recent knee surgery and in light of his poor fumbling ratio, Miller has surpassed him on the depth chart.

Frankly, that situation makes me uneasy. It would be really nice if they could come to reasonable terms with Reggie Bush.

 

[mcaqua]

There is no way I am paying Sean Smith to stick around. The next big play he makes will be his first. He is quite literally allergic to the football.

@SeanSMITH24: Must be nice to play whatever technique u want, do a lil trash talkin, and be yourself out there!!! One day

Just no.

 

[mcaqua]

Also, I am huge fan of what Randy Starks brings to the interior of this defensive line. But from a roster construction standpoint, I'm not so sure they would not be better off letting Randy walk and shifting Odrick to the inside (where he is better suited to utilize his quickness to get after the QB) then hitting the open market/draft for a DE that can get after the QB opposite Wake.

Of course I have no confidence in Ireland making the right calls on any of the aforementioned personnel decisions. Really, you just have to hope that he doesn't butcher those first three selections in the draft.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

Wow, hate that logo.

The problem is the teal and orange combination.

 

[dwainw]

Of course I have no confidence in Ireland making the right calls on any of the aforementioned personnel decisions. Really, you just have to hope that he doesn't butcher those first three selections in the draft.

What could possibly go wrong?

 

[pdaj]

Also, I am huge fan of what Randy Starks brings to the interior of this defensive line. But from a roster construction standpoint, I'm not so sure they would not be better off letting Randy walk and shifting Odrick to the inside (where he is better suited to utilize his quickness to get after the QB) then hitting the open market/draft for a DE that can get after the QB opposite Wake.

The Dolphins defensive line is the key to everything. Even with a patchwork secondary, Miami's front four managed to make Miami one of the best defensive units in the league by rarely allowing opponents to establish the run. There's no way you fuck with that, assuming Starks can be re-signed for fair market value. When you're facing high-octane and/or physical, run-heavy offenses like New England or Seattle, having a deep, talented rotation up front is key. With McDaniels most likely moving on, we'll have Wake, Solai, Starks, Odrick, and Vernon. Odrick's versatility can still be utilized within the rotation, perhaps with him moving inside and Vernon (or an added pass-rusher) coming in on passing downs.

Starks is tough, nasty, and consistent. He's been durable. He's also stayed out of trouble, which has proven to be difficult in Miami. I think he'll be a hard guy to replace on the field and in the locker room if he's not re-signed.

There is no way I am paying Sean Smith to stick around. The next big play he makes will be his first. He is quite literally allergic to the football.

Just no.

I'm conflicted on Smith.

Has he been a big playmaker at corner? No. But has he clearly been Miami's best corner? Absolutely. In addition, he's still very young; and CB talent doesn't fall off trees. That said, if a team's willing to pay him like an elite corner, I don't think he'll be back. And if that's the case, the secondary might become the biggest area to address in the draft/free agency ... in an off-season where offense is supposed to be the focus.

 

[pdaj]

What could possibly go wrong?

Of course I have no confidence in Ireland making the right calls on any of the aforementioned personnel decisions. Really, you just have to hope that he doesn't butcher those first three selections in the draft.

No NFL GM had a hotter seat last off-season than Ireland; and he responded by hiring Philbin and drafting Tannehill. Egnew aside, he appears to have secured a strong class with Tanny/Martin/Miller/Vernon/Kaddu/Matthews. He also traded Vontae Davis at the perfect time. I don't know ... perhaps I'm just a homer, but I like Ireland a lot as a talent evaluator. I think he and Philbin together might prove to be a good pairing.

 

[dwainw]

My facetiousness was based more on their checkered draft record in the past umpteen years, including the pre-Ireland era. That said, I do have mixed feelings about Jeff Ireland. Free agency-wise, he hasn't had much luck with the throwing shit against a wall--let it stick approach under the salary constrictions he's dealt with. I generally agree about last year's draft class but even there, Tannehill still has a lot of development ahead of him, and Miller obviously has a ton to prove.

I sure hope you're right, though, because he's never had a better opportunity than he'll have this year. Nor a bigger challenge in some respects, due to all the decisions ahead of him. It's exciting, but my eternal optimism is wearing thin. Luckily, 25 + years of waiting out the Red Sox hardened me.

 

[pdaj]

My facetiousness was based more on their checkered draft record in the past umpteen years, including the pre-Ireland era. That said, I do have mixed feelings about Jeff Ireland. Free agency-wise, he hasn't had much luck with the throwing shit against a wall--let it stick approach under the salary constrictions he's dealt with. I generally agree about last year's draft class but even there, Tannehill still has a lot of development ahead of him, and Miller obviously has a ton to prove.

I sure hope you're right, though, because he's never had a better opportunity than he'll have this year. Nor a bigger challenge in some respects, due to all the decisions ahead of him. It's exciting, but my eternal optimism is wearing thin. Luckily, 25 + years of waiting out the Red Sox hardened me.

I understand completely -- the last decade or so has been rough. The fact that it's coincided with the greatest era of Patriot football hasn't made it any easier, either. (Assuming that you're in the N.E. area, like I am.) One of the biggest issues with Ireland is that his time in Miami is clouded by the Parcells' factor. What draft picks were truly Ireland's ... and would he have ever hired Sparano as head coach if B.P. wasn't at the helm?

In being as objective as I can, I can't help but take note of the additional positive signs. While a lot of fans/media criticized Ireland for his handling of the negotiations with Matt Flynn, for instance; his decision to pass on him proved to be the right move. Reshad Jones, who has morphed into an elite safety, was drafted in the 5th round and is a selection directly attributed to Ireland. Also, In looking at 11's class, while the jury's still out on Thomas/Clay, Pouncey is already at a Pro Bowl level in his second NFL season. (Keep in mind, we didn't have a 3rd or 5th pick that year.)

All these things considered, I'm cautiously optimistic that he can get the job done this off-season.

 

[mcaqua]

The Dolphins defensive line is the key to everything. Even with a patchwork secondary, Miami's front four managed to make Miami one of the best defensive units in the league by rarely allowing opponents to establish the run. There's no way you fuck with that, assuming Starks can be re-signed for fair market value. When you're facing high-octane and/or physical, run-heavy offenses like New England or Seattle, having a deep, talented rotation up front is key. With McDaniels most likely moving on, we'll have Wake, Solai, Starks, Odrick, and Vernon. Odrick's versatility can still be utilized within the rotation, perhaps with him moving inside and Vernon (or an added pass-rusher) coming in on passing downs.

Starks is tough, nasty, and consistent. He's been durable. He's also stayed out of trouble, which has proven to be difficult in Miami. I think he'll be a hard guy to replace on the field and in the locker room if he's not re-signed.

Of course the problem with this approach is that Vernon is a ghost on passing downs. I like what Koa Misi brings to this defense in addition to Kevin Burnett (Dansby on the other hand is a discussion for another day) but the point is that outside of Wake, no one in the front seven has the ability to consistently pressure the QB.

I think Starks is a tremendous player. But I also think his 4.5 sacks can be replicated by Odrick moving to the interior, using Starks' financial resources to sign a FA CB to replace Smith (I know Ireland's track record isn't pretty) and drafting a DE that has the ability to get after the QB opposite Wake. In this scenario, you clearly upgrade two positions (DE and CB) and the downside at DT is minimal (Odrick is better suited to play along the interior - I think that has been clearly demonstrated during his time in Miami).

 

[pdaj]

Of course the problem with this approach is that Vernon is a ghost on passing downs. I like what Koa Misi brings to this defense in addition to Kevin Burnett (Dansby on the other hand is a discussion for another day) but the point is that outside of Wake, no one in the front seven has the ability to consistently pressure the QB.

Vernon was listed as one of Kiper's second-year break-out players:

http://insider.espn....idates-2013-nfl

Olivier Vernon, DE, Miami Dolphins

Overshadowed by Cameron Wake, Vernon quietly had one of the better seasons for a rookie pass-rusher. The third-round pick out of Miami picked up 4.0 sacks and could become a starter at DE for the Fins as soon as 2013. He's already a good rotation player.

 

[mcaqua]

Vernon was listed as one of Kiper's second-year break-out players:

http://insider.espn....idates-2013-nfl

I don't how anyone could have watched the Dolphins this year and come to the conclusion that Vernon is a quality pass rush option or has the ability to become one. A great special teams player? Without question, but Kiper is way off-base on that assessment.

I just think resigning Starks is a luxury that this team cannot afford when you have young replacements on the roster ready to step into the vacancy (Odrick and Randall). Its a poor use of resources considering we're dealing with a position of strength.

 

[mcaqua]

Also, I have yet to see this article referenced anywhere. Granted its Armando, but it appears to be a sterling review of another of Ireland's recent draft picks:

I've talked to two players the past three weeks that told me they don't see Egnew, a rookie last year, making it out of training camp next year.
"He should have been cut this year," one told me.
That doesn't account for Egnew learning to block and learning his assignments better and getting stronger and faster this offseason. But another player I spoke with said none of that will ultimately matter with the former third round draft pick.
"He's a p---y," the second player said. "He's not a football player."

Might explain why he was inactive for all but two games this past season. I know he was raw coming out of Missouri, but its looking like a disaster of a pick.

http://miamiherald.t...nt-make-it.html

EDIT: Is there any doubt that second quote came from Incognito?

 

[mcaqua]

No NFL GM had a hotter seat last off-season than Ireland; and he responded by hiring Philbin and drafting Tannehill. Egnew aside, he appears to have secured a strong class with Tanny/Martin/Miller/Vernon/Kaddu/Matthews. He also traded Vontae Davis at the perfect time. I don't know ... perhaps I'm just a homer, but I like Ireland a lot as a talent evaluator. I think he and Philbin together might prove to be a good pairing.

I like what Tannehill showed us this season, but there is still a metric shitton of questions that need to be answered involving this draft class before we can characterize them as anything close to a successful group.

There is no point in going back and forth on the job Ireland has done up to this point because with the amount of key personnel decisions that need to be made on the current roster, in addition to the ammunition he has available on draft day, he's going to make his bed this offseason.

Personally, I have no faith in him. But we shall see.

 

[pdaj]

I typically have a positive, wait-and-see approach with draft picks, but I hated the Egnew selection right away. Anyone who watches a lot of college football can tell you that ALL Missouri TE put up big numbers in college; and none of them stick in the NFL. Their college productivity is solely due to their system.

That said, according to what I read last year, Ireland saw Egnew put his hand in the dirt during the Senior game; and from there, he was convinced that he could be the exception. Thus far, he's been wrong. But if you're going to fire a GM for fucking up a 3rd-round pick, good luck replacing him with someone who hasn't.

In '12, Ireland netted a rookie QB who held his own as an NFL starter in Year 1, a RT who started/played relatively well in his first season, a RB who may end up being the starter next season, and a DE who contributed right away and will certainly be in the rotation next season. Whether or not Kaddu or Matthews stick (and they may), that's not a bad haul. And if Tanny becomes a top QB, it could become one of the best Dolphin drafts ever. RT's without a doubt the key.

Here's what Mel Kiper, Jr. wrote in his follow-up to the 2012 Draft:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story...nable-time-nfl

Ryan Tannehill to Miami at No. 8

What I said then: "On my final Big Board, Ryan Tannehill was my 19th-ranked player. The Dolphins got him at No. 8, and probably felt like they couldn't move down. If he's your guy, you take him and live with it. Tannehill is all projection. My worry for him is he needs more game experience, but Miami can't put him out there as a rookie with the hope of being competitive."
Miami really liked Tannehill and knew his transition could be eased by his familiarity with Mike Sherman's offense. He was inexperienced, but this was the best possible system to land in if the team wanted him to start in Week 1.

What I think now: Tannehill has performed well for a rookie given the immediate starting role and the fact that, minus Brandon Marshall, the Dolphins lack what I would consider a single clear matchup advantage at wide receiver. Tannehill has displayed the upside of a star but has been erratic week to week. His TD-INT ratio (6 TDs, 11 INTs) is what you might expect, but I think any questions I had of Tannehill as a capable NFL starter early in his career have been proved wrong. The question now is whether he'll continue to develop. Miami needs to look for impact at the wide receiver position going forward. By the way: Can we lay off Jeff Ireland? Where has he made a major mistake?

 

[pdaj]

My favorite Oliver Vernon highlight of 2012:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5b6D3ltO6Z8

 

[Clears Cleaver]

I would not sign Long, he graded out terribly this year, maybe as the 20th bet LT. He might be toast, he might come back, but not paying him $10M to find out. This draft is pretty deep with OTs. I wouod keep Smith, sho is very good in man coverage and pretty bad in zone coverage. If they find another good CB and he can play press, he is one of the bst in the league. I think Bush is 50-/50. RBs are totally fungible. I still like Starks and would keep him.

the Dolphins are $46M under the cap as of now with all those UFAs

Ireland is mediocre at best. his drafts are OK, not great. He will be defined by Tannehill, who might turn out well, but when has a team won a title when they got the 4th best QB in their own draft class? he may proved ot be better than anyone from last year's class (Cam/Ponder/Locker/Gabbert) or this year's class, however, so its tough to knock the pick at this point.

At WR, i think Jennings showed in playoffs he can still make big plays. he'd be the #1 for sure. Wallace is a deep threat they haven't had in years and changes the offense more than Jennings would, but is he a diva? Philbin has shown he doesn't want those guys. Hartline will probably be back. Teams figured him out a little as year went on, though, so I am not totally sure just how good he is. Statistically he was fine. I hope they sign a big WR and can add another WR in the 3-4th rounds.

I think they can get a starting OG/OT (depending if JErry can be moved to LT permanently as a solution), a starting CB and a pass rusher with first three picks. Then a TE weapon (whether they keep Fasano or not). That would be a pretty great haul and fit their needs

 

[sodenj5]

I would go so far as to say this may be the biggest offseason in franchise history.

Let's look at what's transpired:

Miami finally drafted a QB. He looks like a keeper. Awesome, we can finally move forward.

Miami needs playmakers at WR. Jennings, Wallace, Bowe, and Welker are all going to be free agents.

Miami just so happens to have a huge amount of cap space to play with.

Miami also needs to draft someone that can consistently get pressure besides Wake. The draft just so happens to be loaded with defensive playmakers.

A lot of things are lining up right for Miami. If they play this right, and make the right signings, and don't blow a draft where they have 5 picks in the first three rounds, we could see progress in leaps and bounds next year, and the following few years.

If they don't, and they sign a WR to a big contract and he doesn't produce, or they throw a ton on money at Long, because he's "their guy", then we can easily be right back to square one.

Again, this offseason is HUGE for this franchise.

Also, count me in favor of letting Starks walk as kicking Odrick inside, letting Long walk unless he signs a very friendly deal, and letting Bush wall because I think Lamar Miller has a huge upside, and Thomas is a solid contributer when healthy.

I would love to see Ireland trade down in the first round, grab another second rounder, and take whatever top WR is available, either Patterson or Allen. I feel like Allen is the better fit for the system (big, strong, not afraid of contact over te middle, really good at getting YAC) but Patterson has huge upside, and just has silly moves in the open field.

 

[sodenj5]

I could also see Ireland trading back in the first, grabbing another second, then packaging 2 seconds to move back into the first, and snagging a tight end at the end of the first round.

That would leave them with two firsts, one second, and two thirds. First team that jumps to mind is NE. They have no 4th, 5th, or 6th round picks this year.

Of the group of pending free agent WR, Jennings has been the one heavily linked to Miami, but he'll be 30 next year, and I'm guessing they'll have to sign him for at least 4 years. Don't know if I'm in love with him at age 33 and 34, especially after getting banged up this year.

But he is a proven producer, and obviously a "Philbin Guy" and would provide a strong veteran presence on offense.

 

[pdaj]

He will be defined by Tannehill, who might turn out well, but when has a team won a title when they got the 4th best QB in their own draft class? he may proved ot be better than anyone from last year's class (Cam/Ponder/Locker/Gabbert) or this year's class, however, so its tough to knock the pick at this point.

Well, in 1983 ... it went John Elway, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, and Dan Marino. ;-)

But all kidding aside, after Cam's first year, how many people anointed him a star? And before this season (and maybe even last night), how many had Flacco pegged as a pretender? The QB position rankings can be a fluid situation. It'll be interesting to see how Wilson performs in his sophomore season and how RGIII's style affects his durability over time. It wouldn't shock me if Tannehill ends up being the second best QB in the '12 class.

I would not sign Long, he graded out terribly this year, maybe as the 20th bet LT. He might be toast, he might come back, but not paying him $10M to find out. This draft is pretty deep with OTs. I would keep Smith, sho is very good in man coverage and pretty bad in zone coverage. If they find another good CB and he can play press, he is one of the bst in the league. I think Bush is 50/50. RBs are totally fungible. I still like Starks and would keep him.

... I think they can get a starting OG/OT (depending if JErry can be moved to LT permanently as a solution), a starting CB and a pass rusher with first three picks. Then a TE weapon (whether they keep Fasano or not). That would be a pretty great haul and fit their needs

I think a lot of moves (as always) will be determined by money. I'd be fine seeing Long walk if he's looking for 10 million, but what if he signed for 6 and incentives? In addition, I'm cool with Miller getting the starting gig next year, but what if Bush signed for a contract similar to Sproles?

I've head the Jerry-to-LT talk and that scares the living shit out of me. If that's Plan A going into camp, we're fucked.

 

[Super Nomario]

Among the 39 QBs who threw a significant number of passes, Tannehill was 23rd in Y/A, 31st in rating, 19th in QBR, 26th in ANYA, 25th in DYAR and DVOA, 20th in WPA, and 29th in EPA. Composite, he was about the 26th-best QB in the NFL this year. That's not a Gabbert-esque debut, but he needs to improve quite a bit to be an asset for Miami.

 

[pdaj]

It takes a lot of talent to win in the NFL. The Pats have a Top-3 QB, Ridley/Vereen, Welker/Lloyd/Gronk/Hernandez, and an above-average offensive line, and still won't represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

By mid-to-late season, Tannehill had a rookie starting at LT, Reggie Bush, Brian Hartline, and Anthony freakin' Fasano. In his first NFL season. RT certainly has a long way to go to prove his worth in the NFL, but I was thoroughly impressed with his rookie campaign considering his weapons and relatively vanilla offense.

 

[sodenj5]

It takes a lot of talent to win in the NFL. The Pats have a Top-3 QB, Ridley/Vereen, Welker/Lloyd/Gronk/Hernandez, and an above-average offensive line, and still won't represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

By mid-to-late season, Tannehill had a rookie starting at LT, Reggie Bush, Brian Hartline, and Anthony freakin' Fasano. In his first NFL season. RT certainly has a long way to go to prove his worth in the NFL, but I was thoroughly impressed with his rookie campaign considering his weapons and relatively vanilla offense.

I agree with this, and it's a big reason Tannehill gets left out of the Luck/RG3/Wilson conversation.

Luck had a future hall of fame WR, and they drafted 2 talented rookie WRs to go along with his college teammate in Fleener, and another talented TE in Allen.

RG3 had Moss, Fred Davis, Garcon, and it didn't hurt that they hit big on drafting Morris.

Wilson had Rice, Lynch, Tate, and Zach Miller.

Tannehill had Hartline, Bess, Bush, Fasano, and a bunch of scrubs. He made Hartline a 1000 yard receiver, and had Bess not gotten hurt, he likely would have eclipsed 1000 yards as well. I think if they surround him with some legitimate weapons, you'll see Tannehill make the leap along with Luck/RG3/Wilson.

Miami has a solid foundation in place, but they really need to go out and get some playmakers for Tannehill.

 

[Super Nomario]

RG3 had Moss, Fred Davis, Garcon, and it didn't hurt that they hit big on drafting Morris.

Santana Moss, really? Maybe three years ago. Fred Davis (who only played 7 games, and is only Fred Davis)? Garcon, who missed 6 games and never got 1000 yards even with Peyton Manning throwing to him? Those guys were as bad a receiver corps as any in the league.

Wilson had Rice, Lynch, Tate, and Zach Miller.

Lynch is great, certainly, but Rice hasn't been the same since his hip injury and while Tate has a great name he's never done anything in the NFL. Zach Miller's just a guy. That is not an impressive receiving group either.

Tannehill had Hartline, Bess, Bush, Fasano, and a bunch of scrubs. He made Hartline a 1000 yard receiver, and had Bess not gotten hurt, he likely would have eclipsed 1000 yards as well. I think if they surround him with some legitimate weapons, you'll see Tannehill make the leap along with Luck/RG3/Wilson.

Miami has a solid foundation in place, but they really need to go out and get some playmakers for Tannehill.

I agree Miami needs help at the skill positions, and certainly that will help Tannehill. I don't see much difference between his weapons and RGIII's / Wilson's.

 

[dwainw]

Can any of you guys recommend a decent online news source for "objective" (I realize that's relative) Dolphins coverage? Being from out of town, I rely almost exclusively on the team website and the Miami Herald for my daily information. There's only so much of the Armando Salgueros and Barry Jacksons in the world I can take. (Oh, and for starters, this thread has been a pleasant surprise. I've been on this site for 7 or 8 years and never ventured into much of anything but the Red Sox and general baseball forums. Who knew there would be Dolphins fans around here?)

Speaking of Armando, he's been banging the Mike Wallace drum pretty steadily for a while now. Since I'm pretty Dolphins centric in how I follow the NFL, aside from stat-watching for fantasy football I'm not super exposed to the nitty gritty of other players around the league. That said, for some reason I have a softer spot for Greg Jennings than Wallace or the other handful of free agent WRs out there. I'd love to see Tannehill have the opportunity to show off the deep ball to guys who can actually get separation. Obviously Wallace is younger and fast as hell, but do people think he'd step more easily into the role he'd have here than Jennings or any of the others? I ask this because my impression is there seem to be conflicting opinions on Wallace, and Armando alludes to that in today's column.

 

[pdaj]

I agree Miami needs help at the skill positions, and certainly that will help Tannehill. I don't see much difference between his weapons and RGIII's / Wilson's.

There's a reason why Wilson nearly lead the Seahawks to the NFC Championship Game, and it's not because he's a top NFL quarterback. (Although, he may become one.) Seattle's running game, lead by Lynch and Turbin, and their big-play defense, are the two things that most made up Seatte's identity this season. Due to the running game/defense, Seattle was able to still win games during Wilson's early and mid-season struggles. He could simply manage the game, and still secure the W.

After the loss to Miami in Week 12, everything came together for Seattle. Wilson started making more big plays in the passing game, and Seattle's defense/special teams took it a whole 'nother level. Wilson clearly outperformed Tannehill down the stretch, but I don't think you can understate how Seattle's superior talent aided in Wilson progress and succeess throughout the season.

In reference to the discussion above, Rice/Tate/Baldwin/Miller started all 16 games for Seattle; and Tate became an absolute stud towards the latter part of the year. Miami couldn't find a competent third WR all season long, as they cycled through Naanee, Armstrong, Gaffney, Moore, Binns, and Matthews. This issue was intensified when Fasano played hurt and Bess missed the final 3 games. Receiver separation was non-existant.

 

[pdaj]

Can any of you guys recommend a decent online news source for "objective" (I realize that's relative) Dolphins coverage? Being from out of town, I rely almost exclusively on the team website and the Miami Herald for my daily information. There's only so much of the Armando Salgueros and Barry Jacksons in the world I can take. (Oh, and for starters, this thread has been a pleasant surprise. I've been on this site for 7 or 8 years and never ventured into much of anything but the Red Sox and general baseball forums. Who knew there would be Dolphins fans around here?)

Speaking of Armando, he's been banging the Mike Wallace drum pretty steadily for a while now. Since I'm pretty Dolphins centric in how I follow the NFL, aside from stat-watching for fantasy football I'm not super exposed to the nitty gritty of other players around the league. That said, for some reason I have a softer spot for Greg Jennings than Wallace or the other handful of free agent WRs out there. I'd love to see Tannehill have the opportunity to show off the deep ball to guys who can actually get separation. Obviously Wallace is younger and fast as hell, but do people think he'd step more easily into the role he'd have here than Jennings or any of the others? I ask this because my impression is there seem to be conflicting opinions on Wallace, and Armando alludes to that in today's column.

Glad to have you, dwainw. We don't have a ton of Dolphin fans on this site, but there's certainly enough to generate some thoughtful discussion throughout the year. I can't believe how things have changed. I used to log on to SoSH to strictly talk about baseball, and now I check on the Dolphins talk, Celtics discussion, college sports (Friar hoops), and the Your Favorite Band Sucks forum before venturing into the Red Sox forum.

Anyway, aside from the last decade, my biggest complaint about being a Dolphins' fan is the media coverage. For the most part, I think it sucks. Dave Hyde for Sun-Sentinel is the guy I can most stomach, probably because I've been following him since I was a kid.

I like Wallace's star potential, but does he have a little DeSean Jackson in him? And how will he handle receiving a mega contract and living in Miami? Does his signing immediately make the Dolphins a force in the passing game?

I'm not sure Ross/Ireland/Philbin will be comfortable giving Wallace that much coin. If Jennings can be had for a reasonable price, I think he's clearly the preference. He's familiar with the West Coast offense, he'd be a much-needed veteran presence, and he showed that he's still got "it" during the playoffs. Sure, his durability was put into question this year, but he seems like far less a risk than Wallace.

 

[pdaj]

Ireland held a press conference earlier today; and Adam Beasly tweeted live updates throughout. Grabbed this from another site:

Pass-rushers: "You never have enough of them. Disrupting the passer is a key element" in a successful defense.

Ireland acknowldges he's a lightening rod in Miami: "Polarizing," is the word he used.
Devlin as backup: Anything's possible. Think he's done an outstanding job. Development has skyrocketed. I think Pat's capable of doing that.

Ireland: "We look forward to making some exciting news before too long."

"The message is, Joe and I have a clear vision on how we'll help this football team. This is a big offseason for us. We understand that."

How far the Dolphins are from the elite: There's a gap. We've got a long way to go. There's a five-game gap between first and second.

Ireland on Honey Badger: "At the end of the day, you’re going to ask yourself if he’s someone you want on your football team."

More Ireland on Egnew: I've got a high regard for him. He's going to have a good season this year.
Ireland on Egnew: Certainly wish he would have been out there more. Players develop in different stages.

2012 Rookie class: I feel very good about the whole class. I'm very optimistic about the draft class. 2011 class too.

Ireland: [Tannehill] is a young player. Our philosophy is to build the roster primarily through the draft. Young by design.

Ireland: I think this is the year that you've got to do something. We're looking for playmakers on offense. Free agency, trades on table.

Ireland: We're not looking to upgrade one primary area. We're looking to upgrade at a lot of areas.

Ireland: "There's a gap between 1 and 2 in our division. We've got to find guys that are scoring touchdowns. Disrupting passer on defense."

Ireland: Maybe looking for a more athletic offensive line type.

I asked Ireland if he considers Jake Long elite. His response: "I think Jake can play in this league."

 

[mcaqua]

Glad to have you, dwainw. We don't have a ton of Dolphin fans on this site, but there's certainly enough to generate some thoughtful discussion throughout the year. I can't believe how things have changed. I used to log on to SoSH to strictly talk about baseball, and now I check on the Dolphins talk, Celtics discussion, college sports (Friar hoops), and the Your Favorite Band Sucks forum before venturing into the Red Sox forum.

Anyway, aside from the last decade, my biggest complaint about being a Dolphins' fan is the media coverage. For the most part, I think it sucks. Dave Hyde for Sun-Sentinel is the guy I can most stomach, probably because I've been following him since I was a kid.

I like Wallace's star potential, but does he have a little DeSean Jackson in him? And how will he handle receiving a mega contract and living in Miami? Does his signing immediately make the Dolphins a force in the passing game?

I'm not sure Ross/Ireland/Philbin will be comfortable giving Wallace that much coin. If Jennings can be had for a reasonable price, I think he's clearly the preference. He's familiar with the West Coast offense, he'd be a much-needed veteran presence, and he showed that he's still got "it" during the playoffs. Sure, his durability was put into question this year, but he seems like far less a risk than Wallace.

Yeah, Wallace just seems like a truly terrible fit in the WCO. He runs a very limited route tree and he has a ton of value tied up in Roethlisberger's unbelievable ability to extend the play and hurt the defense down the field once the coverage begins to disintegrate. I have a hard time envisioning him replicating his past numbers in Miami's offense.

There is no doubt that we need to get Tannehill some legitimate weapons on the outside, but I absolutely hate the group of guys likely to be available in FA this year. Jennings as mentioned up-thread doesn't seem to be a great bet at his age with past injury concerns. Wallace as mentioned isn't a WC guy and Bowe (who I think is probably the best bet of the group) has some attitude related questions that make you think twice about giving him a big contract.

Its tough because you really have to wonder about the value associated with having that #1 dominant guy in the mold of a Marshall, Green or Johnson. I'm not sure its the most appropriate allocation of resources, but you can't exactly have a ton of faith in this organization's ability to find serviceable options via the draft, either.

 

[Super Nomario]

There's a reason why Wilson nearly lead the Seahawks to the NFC Championship Game, and it's not because he's a top NFL quarterback. (Although, he may become one.) Seattle's running game, lead by Lynch and Turbin, and their big-play defense, are the two things that most made up Seatte's identity this season. Due to the running game/defense, Seattle was able to still win games during Wilson's early and mid-season struggles. He could simply manage the game, and still secure the W.

No argument here, which is why I'm not making the argument that Wilson's better because of his team's won-loss record.

In reference to the discussion above, Rice/Tate/Baldwin/Miller started all 16 games for Seattle; and Tate became an absolute stud towards the latter part of the year. Miami couldn't find a competent third WR all season long, as they cycled through Naanee, Armstrong, Gaffney, Moore, Binns, and Matthews. This issue was intensified when Fasano played hurt and Bess missed the final 3 games. Receiver separation was non-existant.

I think you're being inconsistent here. Tate never did anything before this year. His high in receiving yards was 382, a number Brian Hartline bested each of his first three years. But you're giving Tannehill credit for making Hartline a 1000-yard receiver and you're not giving Wilson credit for Tate's breakout season. Sidney Rice is a big name because of his huge 2009, but that was his only year with even 500 receiving yards. Doug Baldwin is just a guy. He had 29 catches this year. Maybe Seattle's receivers are more talented, but it's close.

I guess my bottom line is: there are rookie QB seasons that are so promising that they almost guarantee success (though maybe not right away; look at Cam Newton): RGIII, Wilson, and Luck all had seasons like this. There are rookie seasons so shitty that they almost guarantee ultimate failure: Brandon Weeden and Ryan Lindley are in that category. Then there are the ones in the middle. Ryan Tannehill had one of the ones in the middle.

 

[pdaj]

But you're giving Tannehill credit for making Hartline a 1000-yard receiver and you're not giving Wilson credit for Tate's breakout season.

That wasn't me who made that argument ;-)

Ryan Tannehill had one of the ones in the middle.

I agree 100%. I saw a lot of things from Tannehill this season that make me very hopeful (the potential is clearly there), but he's far from a Luck, sure-thing type.

 

[pdaj]

Contuining on about the 2012 rookie QB class, it'll be interesting to see how each QB progresses in 2013 after all the tape has been watched and dissected, and a fair number of "go to" routes are taken away. With RT, the defensive adjustments were noticeable once the rest of the league realized that Miami was going to live by the short timing patterns in the passing game, as they lacked a receiver who could stretch the field.

It's also been fun going back and reading the comments about this rookie class. By mid-year, Jaws still had Luck ranked 4th out of 5 (ahead of Brandon Weeden), and Tannehill was routinely ranked as high as second behind RGIII.

Here's an example by Kurt Warner from early in the season:

http://profootballta...utplaying-luck/

“I know Andrew Luck was the No. 1 pick overall, but I’ve been most impressed by Ryan Tannehill,” said Warner. “From a consistency standpoint, I believe [Tannehill] has done the best job outside of RG3. May not have the ‘wow’ factor that Andrew Luck and maybe Russell Wilson have had, but he’s been the most consistent. And outside of a couple tipped passes that were intercepted, I think he’s done a really good job for Miami."

“

Similar comments/stories were written throughout the year, proving how fluid the QB rankings can be, especially for the young ones in the early stages of their career.

Seeing Flacco go from a "Will he be re-signed?" guy to "Is he elite?" over the course of a couple months is another example of that.

 

[dwainw]

Sorry to keep bringing up Armando, but this time it involves a third-party reference.  He cites the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal's recent grades of Packers players in which they give C+'s to both Greg Jennings and J. Finley.  Their reasoning seems sound on both players, I think, but it also kind of reinforces the challenge facing Ireland and, in my mind, how crucial this draft will be from an offensive standpoint.
 
The obvious question in dealing with free agency is how many years this team is from contending for a championship.  I'm curious to hear what some of you think.  IMHO, a good offseason is all this team needs to contend for the playoffs next year--a great offseason puts them in contention for the division.  If they aren't making a run for the Super Bowl in 3 years (maybe even 2), they've probably failed--certainly in terms of Ireland surviving, and maybe Philbin.
 
Since it appears all the FA WRs out there will require "too much" in dollars or in years, and they all have proportionally similar upsides and downsides, doesn't it boil down to age?  Push to sign Mike Wallace, then use your first few picks for at least two elite WR/TEs. (For the record, I'm not enamored with the FA class either, but I don't think you can disregard the likely level of upgrade.  Hopefully we aren't talking about the next Marty Booker.)

 

[Super Nomario]

Sorry to keep bringing up Armando, but this time it involves a third-party reference.  He cites the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal's recent grades of Packers players in which they give C+'s to both Greg Jennings and J. Finley.  Their reasoning seems sound on both players, I think, but it also kind of reinforces the challenge facing Ireland and, in my mind, how crucial this draft will be from an offensive standpoint.

I heard Jermichael Finley's parents thought about naming him JerBenWatson instead.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

One thing about Tannehill is that he had almost no time to throw. They need weapons but also need to pass block a lot better as well.

In reading the locals it sounds like signing Long is a long shot. I'm fine with that.

 

[pdaj]

It doesn't look as though any of the Dolphin FAs are looking to take a "hometown discount", which should make a few of the difficult decisions much less difficult this off-season. Of course, many players might find that the market isn't quite what they expected; but I'd be surprised if Reggie Bush and Jake Long don't price themselves out of Miami and find bigger cash loads elsewhere. As I wrote earlier in this thread, with all the needs "we" have, I think the Dolphins would be best served to ride with Lamar Miller and spend Bush's money elsewhere. 
 
As far as every other FA player is concerned, I think it's a fan's knee-jerk reaction to say, "Adios!" when they think their team's player is asking for too much money, but you then have to ask yourself, "Who replaces him?" While 7-8 million per year for Sean Smith, for instance, might make me wince in pain ... would it be better than Smith signing elsewhere and adding a pair of cheaper options? Minus Smith, the Dolphins are left with the following at CB: Dmitri Patterson (4.6m), Richard Marshall (5.7m), Nolan Carroll (623k), Jimmy Wilson (566k), and Julian Posey (480k). That's pretty scary.
 
Patterson can be cut for nothing, and I don't expect that he'll return, unless at considerably less; and I expect Marshall, who missed half the season with a serious back issue, to possibly be cut, also. That leaves us with Carroll, Wilson, and Posey. Re-signing Sean Smith might simply be a necessary evil. But before getting into that, let's look at the Dolphin's roster without any of their FA.
 
 
ROSTER BREAKDOWN
Offense (23)
QBs (1): Ryan Tannehill
RBs (5): Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas, Marcus Thigpen, Jonas Gray, FB Jorvorskie Lane
WRs (5): Davone Bess, Armon Binns, Rishard Matthews, Brian Tyms, Jeff Fuller
TEs (3): Charles Clay, Michael Egnew, Kyle Miller
OLs (9): Jonathan Martin, John Jerry, Mike Pouncey, Richie Incognito, Josh Samuda, Will Yeatman, Jeff Adams, Chandler Burden, Andrew McDonald
 
Defense (21)
DEs (4): Cameron Wake, Jared Odrick, Olivier Vernon, Derrick Shelby
DTs (3): Paul Soliai, Kheeston Randall, Chas Alecxih
LBs (6): Karlos Dansby, Kevin Burnett, Koa Misi, Jason Trusnik, Jonathan Freeny, Josh Kaddu
CBs (6): Nolan Carroll, Richard Marshall, Jimmy Wilson, Dimitri Patterson, Julian Posey, De’Andre Presley
S (2): Reshad Jones, Kelcie McCray
Specialists (3)
K: Dan Carpenter
P: Brandon Fields
LS: John Denney
 
Highlighted are the two scariest positions for me -- WR and CB.
 
Sure, I can be convinced that Miller can replace Bush, and that Odrick can move inside after Starks departs. I can even be hopeful that Martin develops into an above average LT in 2013. But having to secure two starters at wideout and two starting cornerbacks through FA and the draft? While also improving the team? That's no small feat.
 
That's why, at this point, I view signing Hartline at 5-6 million per year and Smith at 7-8 million per year as necessary evils. Hartline's chemistry with Tannehill is unquestioned -- and retaining him while adding a another playmaker at WR will make us better. Draft a playmaker at TE, and now we're really talking.
 
Sean Smith is still only 24, and has at least proven to be a strong man-to-man corner. Add another FA CB (Cox/Porter/Jenkins/etc.) after cutting Marshall, bring back Patterson on the cheap, and now we're significantly improved in this area, also. 
 
[SIZE=11.666666030883789px]This would give Ireland a ton of flexibility come draft time, as he could then address the pass rush (DE) and the offensive line, while also continuing to surround Tannehill with talent on the offensive end. [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=11.666666030883789px](*Bringing back Chris Clemons at SS may be a must, also. He had a pretty good year in '12, and that's one less whole to fill.)[/SIZE]

 

[pdaj]

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Whos-been-doing-the-best-job-of-drafting.html
 
Omar Kelly tweeted about this article earlier today. According to this author's analysis, Ireland has had the #2 ranked performance as GM (drafting) over the past 5 years.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

Santana Moss, really? Maybe three years ago. Fred Davis (who only played 7 games, and is only Fred Davis)? Garcon, who missed 6 games and never got 1000 yards even with Peyton Manning throwing to him? Those guys were as bad a receiver corps as any in the league.


Lynch is great, certainly, but Rice hasn't been the same since his hip injury and while Tate has a great name he's never done anything in the NFL. Zach Miller's just a guy. That is not an impressive receiving group either.


I agree Miami needs help at the skill positions, and certainly that will help Tannehill. I don't see much difference between his weapons and RGIII's / Wilson's.

To be fair, Tate and Rice were 4th and 7th in DVOA and both were top 20 in DYAR. RGIII's receivers weren't much better than Miami's, but he had the benefit of an excellent running game (as did Wilson).

Side note: Bush was 3rd in DYAR, but 30th(!) in DVOA.

 

[pdaj]

To be fair, Tate and Rice were 4th and 7th in DVOA and both were top 20 in DYAR. RGIII's receivers weren't much better than Miami's, but he had the benefit of an excellent running game (as did Wilson).

Side note: Bush was 3rd in DYAR, but 30th(!) in DVOA.

 
Damn. Having watched every game this year, Bush's DVOA ranking isn't a complete shock -- but 30th is lower than I would have guessed. 

 

[dwainw]

Interesting bit of news coming from up here in Minnesota:  Percy Harvin may be on the trading block.  I'd been wondering about that toward the end of the season with the frustration around his injury and I held out hope this might lead to their consideration of moving him. 

So what do folks think he'd be worth?  Being forced to watch more Vikings games than I'd care to every year, I've seen a ton of him.  I've grown to love watching the guy play, but is he too injury-prone?