Rosenthal: Sale extension 5 years, $145 million

Lose Remerswaal

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Why can't they both be?

An owner can still be making tons of money and still not be able to afford to pay out 50m a year (in that specific example) for zero (or negative) production. The Sox can absorb that loss, to a degree. It's not quite as simple for Tampa, Oakland, or Milwaukee.
For zero production, true. But to take a chance that Panda or Hanley might work out . . .
 

Adrian's Dome

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For zero production, true. But to take a chance that Panda or Hanley might work out . . .
Alternatively, if your biggest FA signings are all pretty hard dice rolls, that signifies a whole hell of a lot of other issues. You roll the dice and hope to find lightning in a bottle when you don't have money, not when you do.

Chris Sale or Mike Trout getting hurt sucks and makes a contract suck, but you know what you're going to get when they're healthy. If health isn't guaranteed and you're still not sure what you're getting...
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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We've been talking about this in the baseball is broken thread but I don't think it takes a genius to figure out what has happened.

Teams have figured out that it's in their best interest to not try to win. if you're not trying to win, there is no reason to sign FAs. So you have a bunch of teams that aren't trying to sign FAs; a bunch of teams that are capped out already; and then a few more teams who are trying to win but don't have the position spot open on their roster, and voilà - it's a buyer's market.
I think teams hav also figured out that there’s no point in spending $10M on a guy that’s going to get you one or two kore wins in the middle of the pack. It makes sense for a team that’s contending, but what the point of a team like the Royals or Marlins spending that on mid tier veteran so they win 70 games instead of 68?
 

effectivelywild

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I think teams hav also figured out that there’s no point in spending $10M on a guy that’s going to get you one or two kore wins in the middle of the pack. It makes sense for a team that’s contending, but what the point of a team like the Royals or Marlins spending that on mid tier veteran so they win 70 games instead of 68?
Well, one possible benefit is you could try to trade them mid-season and eat some of the money in exchange for prospects. Its also potentially a way for a team that goes over the top luxury tax level to mitigate the effects of their draft pick getting pushed back. If a team decided to throw caution to the wind in terms of salaries and try to build a juggernaut, it could always buy up a bunch of FA relievers with the plan to jettison some of the excess by trading them and eating a lot of the money in exchange for prospects. It would be expensive as hell and would make it hard to root for the team, but it could eventually be effective.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Well, one possible benefit is you could try to trade them mid-season and eat some of the money in exchange for prospects. Its also potentially a way for a team that goes over the top luxury tax level to mitigate the effects of their draft pick getting pushed back. If a team decided to throw caution to the wind in terms of salaries and try to build a juggernaut, it could always buy up a bunch of FA relievers with the plan to jettison some of the excess by trading them and eating a lot of the money in exchange for prospects. It would be expensive as hell and would make it hard to root for the team, but it could eventually be effective.
Sure. The key word in both those scenarios being "try". They could get hurt, there could be no market or especially with relievers, they just might have a shit season. Sure, some teams will take the shot, I just think jumping to collusion requires a tin foil hat, but ymmv.
 

Plympton91

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Looks exactly like the guy who we had last October.

Like I said, the person who knows the most about the health of Chris Sale’s shoulder is Chris Sale.
 

EricFeczko

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Looks exactly like the guy who we had last October.

Like I said, the person who knows the most about the health of Chris Sale’s shoulder is Chris Sale.
Chris Sale allowed 1 HR in 15 innings last october. To say that they look the same is absurd.

The lack of velocity is concerning, sure; however its also one start. Any judgement right now is literally reactionary.
 

BaseballJones

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Reasons to worry about Chris Sale: From 5/6 through 9/11, Sale averaged 97.1 mph on his fastball. But during his last three starts (and it got worse in the playoffs), he averaged just 92.6 mph. We clearly saw the loss in velocity and a corresponding loss in control, as he had to give more effort to ramp up the speed, which normally results in less control. Yes he was dominant in that last inning to close out the WS, but before then, he was shaky. And last night, he averaged just 92.3 mph on his fastball, and we saw the lack of control (even some of his strikes were not close to the target) that came with it, and the results were awful.

So to me, that's cause for concern.

But then, here are reasons NOT to worry: Last year, his first 4 starts, he averaged just 93.2 on his fastball, and his first 7 starts averaged just 93.8. A far cry from his 97.1 he would average during the middle (bulk) of the season. Yet over those first 4 starts he had a 1.23 era, 0.95 whip, and 12.7 k/9. And over those first 7 starts he had a 2.14 era, 0.98 whip, and a 14.8 k/9. So he can be effective with diminished velocity. And more to the point, his velocity last night was more in line with how he started last year as well. And then he saw increased velocity over May, June, and July.

I do wonder though...last year he made a mechanical change after the first month that gave him a serious uptick in velocity. But it appears that that mechanical change may have resulted in the shoulder problems that plagued him late. Maybe he can't ramp it up anymore without that mechanical change, but that change is likely to lead to injury?
 

DirtyWater90

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Reasons to worry about Chris Sale: From 5/6 through 9/11, Sale averaged 97.1 mph on his fastball. But during his last three starts (and it got worse in the playoffs), he averaged just 92.6 mph. We clearly saw the loss in velocity and a corresponding loss in control, as he had to give more effort to ramp up the speed, which normally results in less control. Yes he was dominant in that last inning to close out the WS, but before then, he was shaky. And last night, he averaged just 92.3 mph on his fastball, and we saw the lack of control (even some of his strikes were not close to the target) that came with it, and the results were awful.

So to me, that's cause for concern.

But then, here are reasons NOT to worry: Last year, his first 4 starts, he averaged just 93.2 on his fastball, and his first 7 starts averaged just 93.8. A far cry from his 97.1 he would average during the middle (bulk) of the season. Yet over those first 4 starts he had a 1.23 era, 0.95 whip, and 12.7 k/9. And over those first 7 starts he had a 2.14 era, 0.98 whip, and a 14.8 k/9. So he can be effective with diminished velocity. And more to the point, his velocity last night was more in line with how he started last year as well. And then he saw increased velocity over May, June, and July.

I do wonder though...last year he made a mechanical change after the first month that gave him a serious uptick in velocity. But it appears that that mechanical change may have resulted in the shoulder problems that plagued him late. Maybe he can't ramp it up anymore without that mechanical change, but that change is likely to lead to injury?
As far as I can tell, the only mechanical change Sale made last year was going back to pitching from the windup. He started 2018 pitching from an abbreviated windup, almost identical to pitching from the stretch, and had success with it early, before being knocked around with 10 ER in his final two starts of May. That’s when he abandoned that plan and went back to pitching from his traditional windup (which he had always had prior to last year) and then the velocity upticked.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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As far as I can tell, the only mechanical change Sale made last year was going back to pitching from the windup. He started 2018 pitching from an abbreviated windup, almost identical to pitching from the stretch, and had success with it early, before being knocked around with 10 ER in his final two starts of May. That’s when he abandoned that plan and went back to pitching from his traditional windup (which he had always had prior to last year) and then the velocity upticked.
He was working on his mechanics in April and early May and suddenly found it according to this article: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2018/05/chris_sales_unhittable_slider.html.

I don't know if I'd call it a mechanical change as opposed to a mechanical fix but the underlying question is still correct: is there something about the way he wants to throw his slider that causes arm problems? Time will tell.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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The command is more worrisome than the velocity to me. Visually he looked exactly how he did at the end of last year; barely ever hitting the glove, fastballs that sail, not being able to properly set up his slider because he can't spot his fastball, running up pitch counts due to his inefficiency, etc. Not ready to jump off a bridge yet, but if come end May he still looks the same and is struggling to get results it would seem the smoke may be meeting the fire.
 

koufax32

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The mechanics adjustment was about getting more extension IIRC. That change worked muscles a different way, hence the fatigue. I also think I remember reading that he spent the off-season working that specific area of his shoulder.

Sorry no source on this but please, correct me if I have this wrong.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The mechanics adjustment was about getting more extension IIRC. That change worked muscles a different way, hence the fatigue. I also think I remember reading that he spent the off-season working that specific area of his shoulder.

Sorry no source on this but please, correct me if I have this wrong.
You are part correct and part not correct.

Mechanics adjustment after coming back in the fall had to do with footwork, which lead to 3" less extension: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/09/28/notebook-red-sox-have-plan-for-chris-sale-increase-his-velocity/zNpoCLks7LMA7AY9lS09dL/story.html.

Red Sox repeated several times that decrease in extension was not related to shoulder so without more, I don't think it is fair to conclude that change affected the shoulder area.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Sale can be effective with diminished velocity, he just had garbage command yesterday. shit happens.

come back to me in a month if he still looks like shit.
 

BaseballJones

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The command is more worrisome than the velocity to me. Visually he looked exactly how he did at the end of last year; barely ever hitting the glove, fastballs that sail, not being able to properly set up his slider because he can't spot his fastball, running up pitch counts due to his inefficiency, etc. Not ready to jump off a bridge yet, but if come end May he still looks the same and is struggling to get results it would seem the smoke may be meeting the fire.
Loss of command could be because he's trying to throw harder to make up for a loss of natural velocity. If that's the case, that's a problem. Though of course, not sure if it's more of a problem than if he simply...is losing feel of his pitches. Hmmmm... Like all power pitchers, at some point he's going to need to learn how to be effective with decreased velocity. Can he still be really really good throwing 91-93 instead of 97? With his great change and wipeout slider, yes. But he'll have to have even better command. Price may have figured it out. Sale may be on that same trajectory. We shall see.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Anyone know what this quote from Abraham means?

“I relied on my defense a lot. I had to kind of revert over to my off-speed pitches. It seemed like they were kind of waiting on a fastball,” Sale said.

Sale said it was a function of what catcher Christian Vazquez called.
Is he saying Vazquez called for the meatball pitch to Chapman? Or that Vazquez was responsible for mixing up pitches well enough to get him through a quality start...
 

Pozo the Clown

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Anyone know what this quote from Abraham means?



Is he saying Vazquez called for the meatball pitch to Chapman? Or that Vazquez was responsible for mixing up pitches well enough to get him through a quality start...
From an article in The Athletic:

Sale said he never once talked to Vazquez about changing the mix. Vazquez simply knew it had to be done. Sale said it was the nature of the modern game, not the radar readings, that necessitated the change.

“I just think that’s kind of part of the evolution of the game,” he said. “It seemed like even if I threw two or three fastballs in an inning, they were ready for it. You kind of see how the game goes, see how the swings are in the at-bats and adjust accordingly.”
 

SouthernBoSox

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Yea, I mean, that's really a big work around to not admitting your fastball his zero life to it right now.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Anyone know what this quote from Abraham means?



Is he saying Vazquez called for the meatball pitch to Chapman? Or that Vazquez was responsible for mixing up pitches well enough to get him through a quality start...
Sale famously does not call his own game. Every pitch he throws is the catcher's (or the bench's) call, and he never shakes anything off. So if he was asked a question about the pitch selection to Chapman or anyone else, of course Sale will say it was Vazquez's call.
 

nvalvo

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Sale famously does not call his own game. Every pitch he throws is the catcher's (or the bench's) call, and he never shakes anything off. So if he was asked a question about the pitch selection to Chapman or anyone else, of course Sale will say it was Vazquez's call.
It wasn't a terrible pitch, IMO, that led to Chapman's Homer (I'm not too proud to repeat a Vladmir Nabokov joke). It was a fastball up and on the inside part of the plate, a strike. I think they wanted it a few more inches inside, but even at reduced velocity, not a ton of hitters can get the barrel to that pitch and keep it fair.

Chapman's an MVP candidate, an elite two-way talent. Sometimes they get you.
 

Plympton91

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Anyone not concerned about his shoulder right now is being a Pollyanna.

You don’t have to be panicked or overreact either, but this is absolutely not what you want to see, hear, and read two weeks after you plop down $145 million guaranteed.
 

chrisfont9

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I suggest the people worrying about Sale's health read Alex Speier's column from today. He observes that Sale appears to be throwing with a slightly toned-down windup, presumably as part of this whole slow-baking approach. He's hitting 90 without the benefit of his normal effort level. Draw your own conclusions, I guess, but that suggests his shoulder is just fine.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/04/03/chris-sale-diminished-velocity-really-cause-for-concern/y1JbDJx23Xn5M3Iz5QbPQN/story.html
 

Van Everyman

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Anyone not concerned about his performance right now is being a Pollyanna.
Sure -- he could def. be hurt. He also could be healthy.

Here's the thing: Chris Sale has trouble being "Chris Sale" from April to October. For whatever reason, he's never been able to do it. Last year, it seemed they were trying to limit his innings pretty aggressively in the first half of the season. And ... it didn't work. He ended up hurt, earlier in the year, and wasn't the same guy by the time the postseason rolled around.

Who knows what they may be trying this year? Is it possible that this is intentional and yet another approach to saving his arm? Is it possible Levangie et al think if Sales throws less gas now his arm will build up strength over the course of the season instead of deliver diminishing returns once August rolls around?

Also, how about that bullpen, huh? :)

Edit: Or what Speier said.

Levangie:
“You guys want him to pitch the whole year, or do you want him to go out and throw 100 right now and not be there for his team? He’s building,” LeVangie said.

“He had a long last year. He’s building up to be the guy he wants to be. He started last year similar. We’re getting to that point, but just not right now.”
 

The Gray Eagle

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Yeah, a 6-inning 1-run start (where the only run was a HR that would have been a single in Fenway) when the offense was shut out for the second straight game doesn’t call out for the promotion of a defensive catcher who can’t hit.
 

moondog80

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Time to panic? David Schoenfield:

"Chris Sale is done after four innings, seven hits, five runs, three strikeouts and 76 pitches. He did get 11 swinging strikes, an improvement over his last start, but his average fastball velocity of 91.8 mph remained below last year's levels (even comparing to April, when his four-seam fastball averaged 93.4 mph). Here's the scary note: It took 83 pitches this season before Sale got a swing-and-miss on his fastball"
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Panic? To what end?

He's not hurt. He's in a slump. Shit happens. If he's still winless with an ERA of 9 on Memorial Day, then it's time to panic.

 

Byrdbrain

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It was 38 degrees and 80% of the hits were 5 hoppers where the fielders weren't. He obviously wasn't good but it is far from time to start panicking.
 

moondog80

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I hope I’m wrong but diminished velocity and fewer swings and misses seems like a thing, not a slump.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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His second start's results were fine.... this start and his first were shit. But his stuff.... that's really what's worrying me. I know it was cold as a witch's teet up there but until he can at least hit 94 on his FB I'll be worrying. That said... .if he's able to somehow get results like his 2nd start (more innings though, please, thanks...) I don't give an F
 

rhswanzey

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I know it was cold as a witch's teet up there but until he can at least hit 94 on his FB I'll be worrying.
OK, but he did that four times today, so, relax.

His FB to end the 2nd inning clocked at 94.7 MPH. He topped 94 on three other FBs; two of these came during the final two at bats of his performance.

I'd be concerned if he weren't flashing that he's got heat in the tank. This isn't "Sale got a big contract and fell off a cliff" - it's management.
 

scottyno

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His second start's results were fine.... this start and his first were shit. But his stuff.... that's really what's worrying me. I know it was cold as a witch's teet up there but until he can at least hit 94 on his FB I'll be worrying. That said... .if he's able to somehow get results like his 2nd start (more innings though, please, thanks...) I don't give an F
he hit 95 today
 

soxin6

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He couldn't put hitters away today and continues to struggle with his control. Without a dominant fastball, Sale cannot afford to be missing spots. It isn't clear whether it is an injury or his lack of work in the spring, but the Red Sox need to find out if there is something physically wrong with him before letting him take the mound again. They have already committed to a five year extension and need to get him right ASAP.
 

Apisith

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There’s some gifs out there of his windup and delivery notably being less violent compared to last year. I’m worried about his results but there seems to be a legitimate reason for his diminished velocity.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He couldn't put hitters away today and continues to struggle with his control. Without a dominant fastball, Sale cannot afford to be missing spots. It isn't clear whether it is an injury or his lack of work in the spring, but the Red Sox need to find out if there is something physically wrong with him before letting him take the mound again. They have already committed to a five year extension and need to get him right ASAP.
I'm curious how the Red Sox can "find out if there is something physically wrong with him" if Sale doesn't think there's anything physically wrong, because wouldn't he be the very first person to know? Considering how frustrated Sale came off as being in his post-game comments, I have a hard time believing he's hurt and either a) he doesn't know or b) he's hiding it.

I lean toward his lack of work this spring being the likely culprit (with maybe an element of mental hesitation after the health scare last year). Two years ago, Sale went balls to the wall right from his first spring outing and started the season on fire. Last year, they scaled back his work in camp and he was a bit slow out of the gate but obviously found himself until he got hurt. This spring, he had even less work in spring training and is having a terrible start to the year (his outing in Oakland notwithstanding). I believe he'll figure it out in time.
 

shaggydog2000

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Time to panic? David Schoenfield:

"Chris Sale is done after four innings, seven hits, five runs, three strikeouts and 76 pitches. He did get 11 swinging strikes, an improvement over his last start, but his average fastball velocity of 91.8 mph remained below last year's levels (even comparing to April, when his four-seam fastball averaged 93.4 mph). Here's the scary note: It took 83 pitches this season before Sale got a swing-and-miss on his fastball"
Is there ever a bad time to panic? Because if it isn't 3 games into a pitcher's season right after his team won a world series, then I don't know when it would be.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I'm curious how the Red Sox can "find out if there is something physically wrong with him" if Sale doesn't think there's anything physically wrong, because wouldn't he be the very first person to know? Considering how frustrated Sale came off as being in his post-game comments, I have a hard time believing he's hurt and either a) he doesn't know or b) he's hiding it.
Why is (b) implausible? Does Sale strike you as the kind of guy who would acknowledge an injury publicly one second sooner than it became impossible to avoid doing so? If so, we have different impressions of him.

What we know is that he finished last year with diminished velocity, and now, after four months off and six weeks to ease back into his job, he still has diminished velocity. Injury may not be the only explanation for this, but isn't it the most plausible one?
 

moondog80

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Is there ever a bad time to panic? Because if it isn't 3 games into a pitcher's season right after his team won a world series, then I don't know when it would be.
I don’t mean panic as in the Sox should do something drastic like take him out of the rotation or offer to eat half of his deal in a trade. More like “are you worried this is more than just a blip”? Because I am.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Why is (b) implausible? Does Sale strike you as the kind of guy who would acknowledge an injury publicly one second sooner than it became impossible to avoid doing so? If so, we have different impressions of him.

What we know is that he finished last year with diminished velocity, and now, after four months off and six weeks to ease back into his job, he still has diminished velocity. Injury may not be the only explanation for this, but isn't it the most plausible one?
I guess, after signing an extension (so his future is secure) and clearing being embarrassed by his performance thus far, I don't see what is to be gained by hiding an injury if it's causing him to perform so poorly.
 

shaggydog2000

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I don’t mean panic as in the Sox should do something drastic like take him out of the rotation or offer to eat half of his deal in a trade. More like “are you worried this is more than just a blip”? Because I am.
So by "panic", you meant "be mildly concerned?"

Then yes, you should feel free to harbor a tiny bit of concern that rises nowhere close to actual panic.