Roster turnover for 2016-17

[Koufax]

The Celtics have 8 draft picks and it is possible that Danny won't be able to deal many of them. Meanwhile their current roster includes three free agents (Turner, Zeller and Sullinger) and 6 players to whom the team is committed for only one more year (Amir, Marcus, Sullinger, Olynyk, Rozier, Young and Mickey). They also have the rights to Marcus Thornton and Colton Iverson, both second round picks. Who gets jettisoned to make room for the new blood?
I figurethat Danny will want to keep two rookies on the NBA roster and two in the Developmental League. He may be able to stash one in Europe, leaving three picks to be traded or wasted.

Next let's look at the current free agents. Zeller gets playing time, but I don't see him as a keeper. He played better last year, which is not a good sign. While many here think that Turner is a goner, I don't. He's too valuable, and both he and the team must recognize that this environment has been good for him. He'll get market value and remain here. It will look a lot like the Jeff Green signing, but hopefully with a better outcome. Sullinger is a real question mark. If the team picks up a significant free agent big man, Sully is gone. If not, the Celtics will try to sign him but their effort may be half-hearted. Figure him gone.

As for those with a year left on their contracts, I see only Jerebko and RJ Hunter as goners. Jerebko is like Zeller - he's gotten worse this year, making him replaceable. RJ Hunter appears to be the epitome of uselessness. I realize that he has a year left on his contract, but he'll be somewhere else next year. Rozier and Mickey are intriguing and Young is still young, so he'll hang on for another year, cheerleading from the bench.

So with four departures - Jerebko, Zeller, Sullinger and Hunter -- there is room for 2 rookies from the draft and 2 free agents. If they aren't able to sign a free agent big man, maybe Colton Iverson makes the team as a Zeller replacement.

That's how I see it. How do you figure the roster to look next year?

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think that if nothing else Danny will deal some of the picks into the future. I don't have a great sense about any of this, though.

Next let's look at the current free agents. Zeller gets playing time, but I don't see him as a keeper. He played better last year, which is not a good sign. While many here think that Turner is a goner, I don't. He's too valuable, and both he and the team must recognize that this environment has been good for him. He'll get market value and remain here. It will look a lot like the Jeff Green signing, but hopefully with a better outcome. Sullinger is a real question mark. If the team picks up a significant free agent big man, Sully is gone. If not, the Celtics will try to sign him but their effort may be half-hearted. Figure him gone.

Sully is as good a passing big as the C's have had since KG, has other very good skills as well, but it's hard to go all in on him given his conditioning. I like him, want him back at the right price, but I could see him leaving for greener pastures and being a huge bust.

Zeller's a guy they will try to keep if free agency and the draft goes badly for him and they need a body. I think he's a good guy in the right role, but I don't think he's a fit on this spread the floor team.

I think Turner will only return if he takes a discount to stay, which is probably not a good career move for him. I'm ambivalent about him. I think he's better than he generally gets credit for here, but he's still not a guy worth investing big bucks in.

The Celtics have 8 draft picks and it is possible that Danny won't be able to deal many of them. Meanwhile their current roster includes three free agents (Turner, Zeller and Sullinger) and 6 players to whom the team is committed for only one more year (Amir, Marcus, Sullinger, Olynyk, Rozier, Young and Mickey). They also have the rights to Marcus Thornton and Colton Iverson, both second round picks. Who gets jettisoned to make room for the new blood?

I hope by "Hunter" you actually mean James Young. I think Young goes as a throw in in a deal. Hunter is a potential keeper and the team still needs to see what he can do with a full NBA offseason under his belt.

 

[sox311]

Here are six pages devoted to this, just 11 topics down with 286 responses.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/the-celtics-and-building-a-contender-roster-crunch.12014/

 

[HomeRunBaker]

There are 8 draft picks many that can be used as throw-ins to a larger deal, used to move up a few slots, or traded back into the future. I'd expect James Young to be included in this grouping of pieces that will be moved as he's shown no growth in two prime growth years. RJ Hunter may be gone as well but he has a better chance to remain over Young.

Ainge has never paid market value to retain a reserve. He let Tony Allen, James Posey, and Big Baby go and Evan Turner isn't going to be his first. Same goes for Zeller. Jerebko will probably end up back overseas.

Forget the W&M Marcus Thornton he put up terrible numbers in a bad foreign league this winter following a training camp where he looks out of place in exhibition games. Iverson has a chance as bigs develop later and this kid plays hard but I wouldn't say it's likely he is here.

We really are lacking up front and Sullinger's weight could scare teams off. Unlike what I felt last summer there is a decent chance he ends up signing here.

Just as there was no "roster crunch" this year there is no "draft pick crunch" either. We can't project trades or FA signings however I'd assume we end up with 2-3 rookies on the 15-man roster in addition to Mickey and Rozier. The rest of the 10-11 man roster will be our playing rotation. We REALLY need to bring some talented bigs in here somehow though.

 

[Koufax]

Here are six pages devoted to this, just 11 topics down with 286 responses.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/the-celtics-and-building-a-contender-roster-crunch.12014/

I was interested in a conversation about the Celtics roster in general, and that thread seems to have meandered a bit.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Interesting comparison between Marcus Smart and Jimmy Butler

"Jimmy Butler is a better basketball player than Marcus Smart." That is a true statement, today. Now change that statement slightly to "Jimmy Butler was a better basketball player at 22 than Marcus Smart is." That is where we run into a problem. This is the argument that SHOULD be making the rounds on talk radio when discussing a potential swap that includes these two names.

Regardless, this statement happens to be flat out wrong.

As a matter of fact, Marcus Smart has been better than Jimmy Butler at every stage of his career thus far and I am not sure there is a reason to believe the trend won’t continue.

The problem for me, with this approach, is that I don't think Butler's development path was typical. You can't really expect a player with Butler-like performance in his first 3 years to become a star in his 4th; Butler is more an exception than a rule in that regard.

Also, it was obviously not a sophisticated analysis - without having taken a deep dive, I would guess that Butler showed more evidence of offensive potential in his first couple of years than Smart did.

That said, Smart is by far the better defender... he doesn't need to produce Butler-level offense to approach his value.

I'd much rather add Butler to a lineup that includes Smart than make Smart a part of the package traded for Butler.

 

[cardiacs]

Didn't see this anywhere else, and maybe it's no surprise but Evan Turner would consider a hometown discount to stay with the C's

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4723121/evan-turner-first-time-a-team-has-wanted-me-back

He definitely grew on me this past year but it's tough to tell if it's only because need partially filled a desperate need which could easily replaced by someone else. I guess the question would be how much of a discount....

 

[bowiac]

The problem for me, with this approach, is that I don't think Butler's development path was typical. You can't really expect a player with Butler-like performance in his first 3 years to become a star in his 4th; Butler is more an exception than a rule in that regard.

Also, it was obviously not a sophisticated analysis - without having taken a deep dive, I would guess that Butler showed more evidence of offensive potential in his first couple of years than Smart did.

I agree Butler is the exception, not rule, so extrapolating there is a bit silly. However, Butler's development into an all-around offensive player was fairly shocking - I don't know anyone who saw it coming. His 2014 season didn't give much reason for optimism, as even his shooting regressed. I can't see any statistical indicators, nor do I recall him having any real scouting buzz beyond his "3-and-D" reputation.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I agree Butler is the exception, not rule, so extrapolating there is a bit silly. However, Butler's development into an all-around offensive player was fairly shocking - I don't know anyone who saw it coming. His 2014 season didn't give much reason for optimism, as even his shooting regressed. I can't see any statistical indicators, nor do I recall him having any real scouting buzz beyond his "3-and-D" reputation.

The buzz on Butler back then was based on his "intangibles" such as high BBIQ, work ethic, and great attitude. It's funny that after he's found success the questions surrounding his attitude. Butler is certainly one of the exceptions but he gets all the credit for being a self-made player. One thing he has over Smart is that size being 4" taller but that is negated by Smart's longer wingspan aside from having a much better shot selection.

 

[ALiveH]

I pretty much value Smart as I would this year's lottery pick. I.e., he still has a chance at being a star (if that pans out he is most similar to Dwyane Wade IMHO). If Smart had stayed in school he'd be tearing up the NCAA as a senior this year and would almost definitely be in the mix for where the Cs are picking. So, I feel strongly he's not just a throw-in for a trade for a star player, but if he doesn't improve in the next couple years, his value will depreciate rapidly.