Round 1 — Bruins - Canes

jaytftwofive

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Jan 20, 2013
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Ten days or so ago, I didn't think they had a chance the way they were playing. But they have looked so much better since then so now I believe they have a shot to beat the Canes.
 

amfox1

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The schedule looks like this (from the Bruins’ official release):

  • Game 1: Monday, May 2 at 7 p.m. ET (TV: NESN, ESPN, RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
  • Game 2: Wednesday, May 4 at 7 p.m. ET (TV: NESN, ESPN, RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
  • Game 3: Friday, May 6 at 7 p.m. ET (TV: NESN, TNT, RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
  • Game 4: Sunday, May 8 at 12:30 p.m. ET (TV: NESN, ESPN, , RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
  • Game 5: Tuesday, May 10 at TBD (TBD)
  • Game 6: Thursday, May 12 at TBD (TBD)
  • Game 7: Saturday, May 14 at TBD (TBD)
 

locknload

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I hate this matchup, but ive come around that there was no good realistic first rounds matchups. No matter who they got it was going to be a tough road. Get through the Canes and then crush the rest of the Metro.
 

RedOctober3829

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Honestly, the 3 regular season meetings mean jack to me when approaching this series. The 1st game was the 2nd night of a road back to back, the 2nd game was Rask's retirement game, and the 3rd game there was no Bergeron or Marchand. Carolina's goaltending situation is up in the air, so that helps a bit with this matchup. They are really fast and a physical team with a good defense and good down the middle. I think this has the potential to be a 7 game series. The keys to me are Ullmark taking control of the GK situation and becoming the guy in the playoffs he's been this last month and if the 2nd and 3rd lines can produce offensively. DeBrusk is another key. If he can keep this kind of stretch up, that adds a lot. Take one of two in Carolina and go from there.
 

burstnbloom

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EH's preview is very similar to Dom's. I have no clue what's going to happen in this series. These teams are (boston first) #1 and #4 in xG%, #4 and #2 in Corsi%, and #3 and #2 in Fenwick. They are #7 and #3 in GF% and #2 and #3 in Expected goal differential. They are the best and second best defensive teams in the eastern conference. They look way different on the ice but have a similar goal and that's to dominate possession by suppressing offense. Freddy's play this year is a real X factor for the canes but him being hurt neutralizes that. Neither Raanta nor Kochetkov offers any real advantage over Ullmark.

The only thing that would surprise me is if this isn't a long series. I'm scared.

51304

https://evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolving-hockey-2022-playoff-preview-round-1/
 

cshea

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Coin flips usually come down to goaltending and special teams (thus officiating).

I think the Bruins really need something out of the bottom 6. It'd be nice if Coyle dialed it back to 2019.
 

kenneycb

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I will defer to the other two given they had more prominent runs but if we're in a pinch prior to game time, I'm happy to step up.
 

cshea

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So, how does the goalie situation play out for the Bruins. Ullmark has the net tonight but the team has repeatedly said a rotation was possible, if not likely.

Stick with an every other game approach? Ullmark's net until he loses? Ullmark until their back is against the wall? I think win or lose I give each the net in Carolina and go from there.
 

Haunted

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So I took this season off as I was uncomfortable supporting the NHL after the Blackhawks scandal (and the general level of league bullshit). I really don't want to spring for Fubo and their ridiculous $70 per month, as there is absolutely nothing else on the service I want, or don't get elsewhere.

Are there cheaper alternatives? NESN's service requires cable subscription. Who's carrying rounds 2+? ESPN?
 

cshea

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No clue, but the last few years, they did not blackout the national broadcast in the Boston market in the first round. I don't know if that changed with the new TV deal.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Did hockey night in canada do an opening montage for the playoffs? If so, please share.
 

The Napkin

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it is fucking obscene how much they mark up tickets for the playoffs and for each additional round. goodness.
 

Gammon_Clark

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it is fucking obscene how much they mark up tickets for the playoffs and for each additional round. goodness.
You are talking about the Box? I wish I could pay FV… every time I catch a game, it’s secondary market and that shit is obscene.
That said, not trying to pick a fight. I can empathize and imagine being a STH and seeing those increases must be frustrating considering your loyalty to the team.
 

tonyandpals

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it is fucking obscene how much they mark up tickets for the playoffs and for each additional round. goodness.
I didn't even get courtesy of an email to break them down this year. Just checked my invoice and wow.

142 / 216 / 266 / 425ea, by round...
 

The Napkin

wise ass al kaprielian
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right? I started doing some math and figured I had to be doing it wrong. Nope. Ours are 144 / 219 / 290 / 432. Gulp.
Yours are on the other end iirc? Wonder if that's why they slight difference.
 

Salem's Lot

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I didn't even get courtesy of an email to break them down this year. Just checked my invoice and wow.

142 / 216 / 266 / 425ea, by round...
Wow that’s a huge increase. I think the finals in 2011 & 2013 were $250 & $275. I gave my seats up right before the 2019 playoffs.
 

The Napkin

wise ass al kaprielian
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212 / 318 / 424 / 632 for row 2 balcony. what on god's green earth.
is that per pair or per ticket?

$25 processing and then another $2 charge for every game (assuming you do pay as they play)
and yeah, it's getting harder and harder to keep renewing.
 

PedroSpecialK

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Oh good call, that's per pair. The idiocy that is the am.ticketmaster.com/tdgarden UI will never cease to amaze me.
 

The Napkin

wise ass al kaprielian
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yeah, I couldn't decide to do per pair or ticket and figured ticket.
in any event, it's really fucking expensive. Especially if you toss a couple drinks and some chicken or popcorn or something and maybe a hat or foam finger for the kids. A family's looking at $1000 to hit up a game.
 

RedOctober3829

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yeah, I couldn't decide to do per pair or ticket and figured ticket.
in any event, it's really fucking expensive. Especially if you toss a couple drinks and some chicken or popcorn or something and maybe a hat or foam finger for the kids. A family's looking at $1000 to hit up a game.
Every league is pricing out the family of 4. I can't shell out this type of money to go to a game when I can get a better view in HD. I absolutely love going to games, but it's getting harder and harder to go.
 

tonyandpals

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right? I started doing some math and figured I had to be doing it wrong. Nope. Ours are 144 / 219 / 290 / 432. Gulp.
Yours are on the other end iirc? Wonder if that's why they slight difference.
Yep, Loge 18 row 4, so a slight discount on that end. I mean, I'd love the chance at paut 400+ per...but still

Ah the good ole days
51364
 

cshea

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Through 2 games at 5x5

Attempts 97-76 BOS
Shots 54-36 BOS
Scoring Chances 42-34 BOS
High Danger Chances 15-13 BOS
Expected Goals: 4.18-2.46 (63%) BOS
Actual Goals 6-2 CAR

There is *some* good here. They are defending well and controlling possession. To me the biggest issue at 5x5, and it's one they have had for years, is offensively they don't generate a ton of quality. They are taking shots from outside, not getting into the high danger areas as much as we'd like and not getting to loose pucks and rebound chances. Kochetkov faced an average shot distance of almost 41 feet last night. I don't care who he is or what his experience is, you aren't going to beat many goalies clean from that far out. If you're going to do that, you need traffic in front for tips and rebounds and the Bruins don't have any.

My changes for game 3 are first to start Swayman. Ullmark just isn't making the big save. They came out well last night, couldn't score, then the first Carolina scoring chance ends up in the back of the net. That took the wind right out of their sales and it was 3-0 before they recovered. I would also call McLaughlin back up (he's in Providence but Providence's season ended last night) and put him in for Frederic. McLaughlin seems to have some shooting ability, maybe he can pounce on a loose puck in a dangerous spot and fire it home.

Finally, tell Marchand to pull his head out of his ass. I have no idea what's happened to him. Through two games, at all situations, he has an individual xG of 0.34. 10 shot attempts, 5 on net, 1 high danger chance. The majority of that is on the PP, he has been invisible at 5x5 (0.05 ixG, 6 attempts, 2 SOG, 0 HD). I'd like to point to the suspension as some sort of turning point, but he came out of the suspension fine posting 22 points in 18 games. Then in the final 13 games he only had 1g 8a. I don't know if it's just some weird blip or theres and injury or something else. He just doesn't look like Marchand. The only time he was noticeable was the post-whistle slash to Kochetkov which was pretty lame by his standards. Maybe he's worried too much about being called into the principal's office again and it's bleeding into the rest of his game?

Anyway, things look bleak but they still have some kind of pulse. I think it's really important to score first tomorrow. If Carolina jumps out, feel like the shoulders will sag and they'll fall into a "here we go again..." mindset.
 

joe dokes

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Completely agree about Swayman and McLaughlin. My view of them is that Ullmark has less variability in his performance, but Swayman is the more likely to steal a game.
As for Marchand, my default for a veteran's play suffering in the playoffs is injury we dont know about. I do wonder if they keep Pastrnak with him and Bergeron from the get-go tomorrow.
 

burstnbloom

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Through 2 games at 5x5

Attempts 97-76 BOS
Shots 54-36 BOS
Scoring Chances 42-34 BOS
High Danger Chances 15-13 BOS
Expected Goals: 4.18-2.46 (63%) BOS
Actual Goals 6-2 CAR

There is *some* good here. They are defending well and controlling possession. To me the biggest issue at 5x5, and it's one they have had for years, is offensively they don't generate a ton of quality. They are taking shots from outside, not getting into the high danger areas as much as we'd like and not getting to loose pucks and rebound chances. Kochetkov faced an average shot distance of almost 41 feet last night. I don't care who he is or what his experience is, you aren't going to beat many goalies clean from that far out. If you're going to do that, you need traffic in front for tips and rebounds and the Bruins don't have any.

My changes for game 3 are first to start Swayman. Ullmark just isn't making the big save. They came out well last night, couldn't score, then the first Carolina scoring chance ends up in the back of the net. That took the wind right out of their sales and it was 3-0 before they recovered. I would also call McLaughlin back up (he's in Providence but Providence's season ended last night) and put him in for Frederic. McLaughlin seems to have some shooting ability, maybe he can pounce on a loose puck in a dangerous spot and fire it home.

Finally, tell Marchand to pull his head out of his ass. I have no idea what's happened to him. Through two games, at all situations, he has an individual xG of 0.34. 10 shot attempts, 5 on net, 1 high danger chance. The majority of that is on the PP, he has been invisible at 5x5 (0.05 ixG, 6 attempts, 2 SOG, 0 HD). I'd like to point to the suspension as some sort of turning point, but he came out of the suspension fine posting 22 points in 18 games. Then in the final 13 games he only had 1g 8a. I don't know if it's just some weird blip or theres and injury or something else. He just doesn't look like Marchand. The only time he was noticeable was the post-whistle slash to Kochetkov which was pretty lame by his standards. Maybe he's worried too much about being called into the principal's office again and it's bleeding into the rest of his game?

Anyway, things look bleak but they still have some kind of pulse. I think it's really important to score first tomorrow. If Carolina jumps out, feel like the shoulders will sag and they'll fall into a "here we go again..." mindset.
We could feel a lot differently on Sunday afternoon if the home games go well, but it does feel pretty bleak. Your analysis is right on. I will add that it's fun to see the usual crowd all over twitter talking about how Gryz is the reason they are losing because of a bad pinch. Every year, same thing. It's nuts. The second line has been the biggest problem. They were horrible last night.

It kind of feels like the games are pretty even but everything Carolina does works out well and its the opposite for the Bruins. You're 100% right that the first goal tomorrow is series defining. The Canes whine A LOT and we've seen them sag quickly when they get punched in the mouth. They strike me very much as a front runner of a team and if you break through they will fold. That's exactly what happened in 2019. A 3-0 first period tomorrow for the bruins could change the whole series. I've not seen a lot to make me expect that, but if it happens I think there's still a chance.
 

The Napkin

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Lindholm was able to fly home last night which is good. Still can't imagine him playing this year though (already out for G3)