Round 2: Columbus Blue Jackets

cshea

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Carolina is also an analytics darling. They always control a high percentage of attempts, shots and chances.
 

Red Averages

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I saw Bruins as favorites earlier 4-1 for the Cup (20% odds) and 2-1 to win the Eastern conference (33% odds)
 

Bergs

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Well game 1 was encouraging. Two absolute fluke goals allowed. We should take this in 5 or 6.
 

cshea

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Here’s the full quote from Cassidy on Krejci. Sounds like Krejci was available to come back, but then the game ended. They’ll see how he is tomorrow but it sounds encouraging.

 

kenneycb

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That Cassidy quote sounds like gamesmanship to the highest degree.

Also Boone Jenner was so damn asleep on the GWG. Just aimlessly skating to the middle of the ice even though he had additional support coming to fill the middle.
 

kenneycb

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In what sense? That Krejci's fine and he's angling for DoPS to look at the hit anyway, or that he's worse than he's letting on and trying to keep the idea of him playing out there?
Just not letting CBJ know if he’s playing 2C tomorrow night or not. Not a huge things but gamesmanship nonetheless.
 

DJnVa

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Maybe, but the whole "not in protocol" thing is good. That's my main takeaway.
 

cshea

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Trying to dive into Pastrnak a bit here today. I think most are in agreement that he’s “off” for some reason. He is whiffing a ton on both passes and shots, and his decisions with the puck have certainly been questionable at times. My first thought is that whiffing has something to do with the thumb injury he suffered in February. He missed 5 weeks and came back to play the final 10 games of the regular season, with 7 goals and 8 assists. He seemed fine to me, no rust or anything.

In the postseason, he has 6 points in 8 games. He is 2nd on the team in individual shot attempts, 2nd in shots, 3rd in individual scoring chances and high danger chances. So he’s getting his looks. He has the 2nd most ice time among forwards behind only Marchand. Bruce plays him more in games they are trailing, a little less in games they have a lead. He is shooting 6.9% (nice!) in the postseason, which is half of his career regular season shooting percentage (14%). There is some bad luck involved in that, and hopefully he has some positive regression.

The volume of fanned shots and passes, plus the low shooting percentage does make me wonder if he re-aggravated his thumb injury sometime along the way, but he’s still getting his shots and chances and the coaches aren’t limiting his ice time or anything. I think overall he’s just in a funk and pressing to snap out it. The pressing is leading to weird decision making. He still tied with Coyle for 2nd on the team in scoring for the playoffs. We’re just used to him finishing off his chances at a higher clip.
 

cshea

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I don’t recall anything. Just looking at his shift chart, it doesn’t look like he missed any time. He played 6:14 in the 3rd and 1:53 in OT and was on the ice for both of Coyle’s goals.
 

TFP

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He went hard into the boards late in the 3rd period in the D zone to Tuukka's left. When it happened my immediate reaction was "please don't be hurt".

Wouldn't surprise me if skated on adrenaline and woke up this morning in some real pain.

Edit: That said - it's Jim Murray. I'm not gonna panic until I hear it from someone else.
 

FL4WL3SS

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Trying to dive into Pastrnak a bit here today. I think most are in agreement that he’s “off” for some reason. He is whiffing a ton on both passes and shots, and his decisions with the puck have certainly been questionable at times. My first thought is that whiffing has something to do with the thumb injury he suffered in February. He missed 5 weeks and came back to play the final 10 games of the regular season, with 7 goals and 8 assists. He seemed fine to me, no rust or anything.

In the postseason, he has 6 points in 8 games. He is 2nd on the team in individual shot attempts, 2nd in shots, 3rd in individual scoring chances and high danger chances. So he’s getting his looks. He has the 2nd most ice time among forwards behind only Marchand. Bruce plays him more in games they are trailing, a little less in games they have a lead. He is shooting 6.9% (nice!) in the postseason, which is half of his career regular season shooting percentage (14%). There is some bad luck involved in that, and hopefully he has some positive regression.

The volume of fanned shots and passes, plus the low shooting percentage does make me wonder if he re-aggravated his thumb injury sometime along the way, but he’s still getting his shots and chances and the coaches aren’t limiting his ice time or anything. I think overall he’s just in a funk and pressing to snap out it. The pressing is leading to weird decision making. He still tied with Coyle for 2nd on the team in scoring for the playoffs. We’re just used to him finishing off his chances at a higher clip.
Great post, this makes a lot of sense. Thank you for this.
 

TFP

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Trying to dive into Pastrnak a bit here today. I think most are in agreement that he’s “off” for some reason. He is whiffing a ton on both passes and shots, and his decisions with the puck have certainly been questionable at times. My first thought is that whiffing has something to do with the thumb injury he suffered in February. He missed 5 weeks and came back to play the final 10 games of the regular season, with 7 goals and 8 assists. He seemed fine to me, no rust or anything.

In the postseason, he has 6 points in 8 games. He is 2nd on the team in individual shot attempts, 2nd in shots, 3rd in individual scoring chances and high danger chances. So he’s getting his looks. He has the 2nd most ice time among forwards behind only Marchand. Bruce plays him more in games they are trailing, a little less in games they have a lead. He is shooting 6.9% (nice!) in the postseason, which is half of his career regular season shooting percentage (14%). There is some bad luck involved in that, and hopefully he has some positive regression.

The volume of fanned shots and passes, plus the low shooting percentage does make me wonder if he re-aggravated his thumb injury sometime along the way, but he’s still getting his shots and chances and the coaches aren’t limiting his ice time or anything. I think overall he’s just in a funk and pressing to snap out it. The pressing is leading to weird decision making. He still tied with Coyle for 2nd on the team in scoring for the playoffs. We’re just used to him finishing off his chances at a higher clip.
I don't see his issues being physical mistakes though. Almost everything I have an issue with is mental mistakes. Bad passes, turnovers, lack of effort, terrible decisions, etc. Maybe an injury is driving these mental mistakes, but this is the worst hockey he's played dating back to his rookie year, and maybe of his career.

A good example is the icing he had last night in the 3rd period. He got the puck on a breakout pass and skated into the neutral zone. He had no pressure on him, turned up, had 2 different options for passes (Krejci up the left wing or Chara as opposite D). Instead he just fired the puck all the way down the ice for a clear icing. It was a mind-numbingly bad decision. This is just one example of many too, and it's just so out of character that it stands out.

The other one that really sticks out was near the end of Game 6 where he got the puck in the slot and made a forehand move, had Andersen sprawled out and inexplicably passed it back across the crease with an empty net. It was a very similar play to his goal in Game 7 against the Leafs last year where he buried it with authority, except this time he dished it off to no one for no apparent reason.

He could just be in his own head. But something is up.
 
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Maximus

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This series is definitely going to be a meat grinder. We need to figure out a way to solve Bobrovsky, get Pasta going, too many low leverage passes in the offensive zone instead of putting the puck on net and stop making unforced turnovers. CBJ's D has been collapsing in the D zone for maximum coverage and limiting our space to operate in the offensive zone. Chipping it in to the D zone to set up the forecheck has just mainly been handing possession back to CBJ.
 

BaseballJones

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This series is definitely going to be a meat grinder. We need to figure out a way to solve Bobrovsky, get Pasta going, too many low leverage passes in the offensive zone instead of putting the puck on net and stop making unforced turnovers. CBJ's D has been collapsing in the D zone for maximum coverage and limiting our space to operate in the offensive zone. Chipping it in to the D zone to set up the forecheck has just mainly been handing possession back to CBJ.
Well suddenly the Bs are down 2-1 with game 4 in Columbus, which will be rocking. A big hill to climb. Of course things get much easier if they do in fact win game 4. But they are having lots of trouble with this team, obviously. Every game has been a super tight contest. That shot (Krug?) that rang off the post late was just killer. That's the fine line sometimes in these games. Another inch to the right and it deflects off the post and into the net. The Bs one goal was a goal by like an inch. It's that close between these teams.
 

reggiecleveland

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Still a really dumb move by Marchand. If he is not suspended watchign Leafs fans melt down will be fun though.

They will need a bounce to get back in this. It seems making fewer passes tight to the net and simply getting pucks on net was giving hem chances last night, but man do goals seem hard to some by.
 
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lexrageorge

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Well suddenly the Bs are down 2-1 with game 4 in Columbus, which will be rocking. A big hill to climb. Of course things get much easier if they do in fact win game 4. But they are having lots of trouble with this team, obviously. Every game has been a super tight contest. That shot (Krug?) that rang off the post late was just killer. That's the fine line sometimes in these games. Another inch to the right and it deflects off the post and into the net. The Bs one goal was a goal by like an inch. It's that close between these teams.
Games like Game 3 are facts of life in the NHL, especially in a tight series where scoring is at a premium. Which is why the B's sleepwalking through Game 2 is a big problem.
 

TheoShmeo

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Last night was somewhat disheartening and I don’t think many Bs fan envision the Black and Gold winning the Cup without real production from Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak and Krejci, or at least most of them. So the continued drought is worrisome.

But I expected a split in Columbus and still expect one.

I will say that the noise difference between the two buildings is noticeable and a bit annoying.

Honest question: do people think it matters? I tend to think not but would be interested in other takes.
 

cshea

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In all situations, the Bruins are getting 56% of the attempts, 52% of the shots, 55% of the scoring chances, 50% of the high danger chances. The biggest issue for me at the moment is they aren’t generating a ton of high danger chances. It is 32-32 overall and the Bruins only have 21 high danger chances at 5x5 to Columbus’ 26.

I wouldn’t make any rash changes. They need to shoot more and get to the net more, hopefully get more traffic in front of Bob and maybe clean up a rebound or two. I do worry that they’ll get frustrated and try to pass it around and not shoot unless they have an open net. Just get pucks on net and keep doing so. Quantity over quality isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
 

RedOctober3829

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Is there any scenario where on the PP they go back to the "put Chara in front of the goalie to block out the sun" strategy they did a few years ago? If the problem is not getting any traffic in front of Bobrovsky that would solve a lot of it. At this point, I'm willing to try anything.
 

TFP

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Is there any scenario where on the PP they go back to the "put Chara in front of the goalie to block out the sun" strategy they did a few years ago? If the problem is not getting any traffic in front of Bobrovsky that would solve a lot of it. At this point, I'm willing to try anything.
God no. Please god no.

I would put DeBrusk back on PP1. They were at their best with him down low/out front. They've tried Johansson there for enough games without success that I'm willing to go back, although I wonder if DeBrusk's injury is playing into it. That's about all I'd change with the PP at this point.
 

RedOctober3829

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God no. Please god no.

I would put DeBrusk back on PP1. They were at their best with him down low/out front. They've tried Johansson there for enough games without success that I'm willing to go back, although I wonder if DeBrusk's injury is playing into it. That's about all I'd change with the PP at this point.
What about Krejci up to PP1 for Johansson?
 

TFP

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Nope, wouldn't do that either. They had one of the best PPs in the league with DeBrusk playing the net front/corner position. Krejci is no different that Johansson there and it weakens PP2.

Just put DeBrusk back on PP1 and go from there, that'd be my move. However, that's dependent on his health.
 

cshea

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Krejci’s not a net front guy, and they would want a lefty in that spot. The formation is:

Johansson- net front
Pastrnak - Marchand - half boards
Bergeron- Bumper
Krug- point
 

Fred in Lynn

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No supplemental discipline for Marchand.

That was exactly the type of act that warrants a suspension: hit to the head, after the play, malicious intent. It doesn’t drive me crazy when a judge (George Parros) uses the actual injury suffered by the victimized player as a modifying criterion in determining the degree of punishment, but it does when it seems to be the determining criterion. If whomever was hit in the head was carted off the ice and severely injured, we wouldn’t see Marchand until October. They’re adjudicating the outcome, not the act.

Note that I am assuming the report is accurate that no discipline is coming.
 

cshea

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That was exactly the type of act that warrants a suspension: hit to the head, after the play, malicious intent. It doesn’t drive me crazy when a judge (George Parros) uses the actual injury suffered by the victimized player as a modifying criterion in determining the degree of punishment, but it does when it seems to be the determining criterion. If whomever was hit in the head was carted off the ice and severely injured, we wouldn’t see Marchand until October. They’re adjudicating the outcome, not the act.

Note that I am assuming the report is accurate that no discipline is coming.
I’d quibble with malicious intent. It was a jab/pop to the head. The force of which was somewhere between a face wash and a full on punch. If he really wanted to hurt the guy, he had the opportunity to wind up and really smoke him. The only reason this is being discussed as a suspension possibility is because it’s 63.

That said, he’s an idiot and if they had suspended him, I wouldn’t have had a problem. He’s kept his nose out of trouble this year but the shit he said he’s stop has crept back in lately (stick stomp, last night’s punch). I don’t know if is because he’s frustrated but he needs to take a deep breathe and cut the shit again.
 

RedOctober3829

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Nope, wouldn't do that either. They had one of the best PPs in the league with DeBrusk playing the net front/corner position. Krejci is no different that Johansson there and it weakens PP2.

Just put DeBrusk back on PP1 and go from there, that'd be my move. However, that's dependent on his health.
Do you have the lottery numbers for later?

Appears DeBrusk back on top PP unit. Johansson back to second unit.