Salary Cap Percentages: Anatomy and Philosophy of Roster Building

JM3

often quoted
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Dec 14, 2019
14,292
The biggest problem for the Bills long-term is that Allen will cost $23m more against the cap next year than he does this year, & it's only going up from there, which means this might be their last best chance to put together a complete roster.

$16.4m
$39.8m
$41.8m
$51.3m
 

johnmd20

mad dog
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Dec 30, 2003
61,996
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The biggest problem for the Bills long-term is that Allen will cost $23m more against the cap next year than he does this year, & it's only going up from there, which means this might be their last best chance to put together a complete roster.

$16.4m
$39.8m
$41.8m
$51.3m
The cap keeps going up. Those cap hits look big and then they don't.

If Allen keeps playing like the stud he is, the Bills will always be in contention.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
34,464
The cap keeps going up. Those cap hits look big and then they don't.

If Allen keeps playing like the stud he is, the Bills will always be in contention.
plus it's a QB in his 20s, unless his arm falls off Cam Newton style due to injury you'll be perfectly happy to restructure/extend every year like Brady did for nearly a decade.
 

johnmd20

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plus it's a QB in his 20s, unless his arm falls off Cam Newton style due to injury you'll be perfectly happy to restructure/extend every year like Brady did for nearly a decade.
The final four last year of QBs was Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. The final four this year was Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, and Jimmy G.

You need a great QB to go far in the playoffs. Jimmy G is the only anomaly in those names and, of course, he lost in the NFC Championship because he couldn't get it done and Stafford got it done multiple times to beat TB, the Niners, and the Bengals.

If Josh Allen is playing like he has played, it doesn't matter what he's getting paid. He gives the Bills a much better chance to win than they would otherwise have. Look at what he did against KC in the playoffs this year. It was otherworldly stuff.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
14,292
I never said it was a bad contract or they would stop competing in the future. They'll be fine.

He's not going to be $23m minus whatever the cap goes up by better next year than he will be this year, though, so this is the optimal year for the Bills to have as good of a roster as possible & might be there best chance to win a SB, even if they have equity every year going forward, too.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
14,292
It's the same with the Chiefs & Mahomes - as he starts actually costing real $ against the cap, they can no longer afford what they used to be able to so they need to move on from players like Tyreke.

They would sign him to that contract over & over again 100 times out of 100, but there is an opportunity cost that makes it harder to be a juggernaut when your QB is properly accounted for against the cap.

Same with Seahawks & RW - ever since he started costing real $, they've no longer been real contenders.

Part of what let the Patriots dominate the way they did is that Brady never really cost them full market value against the cap until I believe the very last year.

Having so much surplus value at QB let's a team dominate & have a mini-run of excellence until they are no longer underpaid. Then the team will be above average almost always & can still make a run, but it creates holes & more difficulties roster building once they are paid.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
14,292
This was something I looked into a lot for dumbazz reasons a few years ago on another message board (I vehemently argued that a team could never win a Super Bowl paying Kirk Cousins full market value).

Here's a chart I just made:

Year SB Winner QB Salary Cap % of Cap
2022​
$208,200,000​
2021​
Rams Matthew Stafford
$20,000,000​
$182,500,000​
10.96%​
2020​
Buccaneers Tom Brady
$25,000,000​
$198,200,000​
12.61%​
2019​
Chiefs Patrick Mahomes
$4,479,808​
$188,200,000​
2.38%​
2018​
Patriots Tom Brady
$22,000,000​
$177,200,000​
12.42%​
2017​
Eagles Nick Foles
$1,600,000​
$167,000,000​
0.96%​
2016​
Patriots Tom Brady
$13,764,706​
$155,270,000​
8.87%​
2015​
Broncos Peyton Manning
$17,500,000​
$143,280,000​
12.21%​
2014​
Patriots Tom Brady
$14,800,000​
$133,000,000​
11.13%​
2013​
Seahawks Russell Wilson
$681,085​
$123,600,000​
0.55%​
2012​
Ravens Joe Flacco
$8,000,000​
$120,600,000​
6.63%​
2011​
Giants Eli Manning
$14,100,000​
$120,375,000​
11.71%​
2010​
Packers Aaron Rodgers
$6,500,000​
UNCAPPED
#VALUE!​
2009​
Saints Drew Brees
$10,660,400​
$123,000,000​
8.67%​
2008​
Steelers Ben Roethlisberger
$7,970,000​
$116,000,000​
6.87%​
2007​
Giants Eli Manning
$10,046,666​
$109,000,000​
9.22%​
2006​
Colts Peyton Manning
$10,566,668​
$102,000,000​
10.36%​
2005​
Steelers Ben Roethlisberger
$4,220,250​
$85,500,000​
4.94%​
2004​
Patriots Tom Brady
$5,058,750​
$80,582,000​
6.28%​
2003​
Patriots Tom Brady
$3,318,750​
$75,007,000​
4.42%​
2002​
Buccaneers Brad Johnson
$5,500,000​
$71,101,000​
7.74%​
2001​
Patriots Tom Brady
$310,833​
$67,405,000​
0.46%​
2000​
Ravens Trent Dilfer
$1,000,000​
$62,172,000​
1.61%​
1999​
Rams Kurt Warner
$750,000​
$57,288,000​
1.31%​
1998​
Broncos John Elway
$2,543,666​
$52,388,000​
4.86%​
1997​
Broncos John Elway
$2,058,666​
$41,454,000​
4.97%​
1996​
Packers Brett Favre
$4,175,000​
$40,753,000​
10.24%​
1995​
Cowboys Troy Aikman
$3,500,000​
$37,100,000​
9.43%​
1994​
49ers Steve Young
$4,025,000​
$34,608,000​
11.63%​


As you can see, Tom Brady set the record for highest % of the cap taken up by a Super Bowl winning QB in 2020 at 12.61%. That means that if any QB who costs more than $26.3m against the cap wins the Super Bowl this year, they would set that record.

This is the list:

2022​
Titans Ryan Tannehill
$38,600,000​
$208,200,000​
18.54%​
2022​
Chiefs Patrick Mahomes
$35,793,381​
$208,200,000​
17.19%​
2022​
Vikings Kirk Cousins
$31,416,668​
$208,200,000​
15.09%​
2022​
Lions Jared Goff
$31,150,000​
$208,200,000​
14.96%​
2022​
Packers Aaron Rodgers
$28,533,569​
$208,200,000​
13.70%​
2022​
Commanders Carson Wentz
$28,294,119​
$208,200,000​
13.59%​
2022​
49ers Jimmy Garoppolo
$26,950,000​
$208,200,000​
12.94%​


Of course that record is likely to be broken soon as QBs cost relatively more & more, but it should be clear that it will be easier for the Bills to win this year than next:

2022​
Bills Josh Allen
$16,372,281​
$208,200,000​
7.86%​
2023​
Bills Josh Allen
$39,772,281​
$218,200,000​
18.23%​


The $218.2m is Spotrac's projections.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,069
Hingham, MA
Agreed, it is fantastic info.

Given the current discussion, I’d be as curious to see what it looks like for WR
 

Ralphwiggum

Member
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Jun 27, 2012
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Needham, MA
Yes, great post. Also illuminates how screwed you are if your choice is to give a Carson Wentz or Jared Goff a deal like that or go back into QB purgatory by letting them walk.

Edit: I mean, Goff costing 15% of the Lions salary cap is . . . something.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
Great post.
Thx!

Dumbazz or not, that is a great rundown. Thank you. Illuminating.
Well, I mean I wasted hours & hours of my life arguing about Kirk Cousins. It definitely wasn't one of my better life choices (even though I still think I was right).

Agreed, it is fantastic info.

Given the current discussion, I’d be as curious to see what it looks like for WR
What sort of parameters are you looking at? Highest paid receiver? Best receiver? Total wide receiver spend? That would be much more difficult to chart & likely noisier.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
Yes, great post. Also illuminates how screwed you are if your choice is to give a Carson Wentz or Jared Goff a deal like that or go back into QB purgatory by letting them walk.
Yeah, that's my general philosophy on team building - pay for elite QBs, don't pay for meh QBs. Reset if you have to.

The only meh QBs who have won Super Bowls while making a decent chunk of the cap are Eli x2 & Bronco Peyton.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,069
Hingham, MA
Thx!



Well, I mean I wasted hours & hours of my life arguing about Kirk Cousins. It definitely wasn't one of my better life choices (even though I still think I was right).



What sort of parameters are you looking at? Highest paid receiver? Best receiver? Total wide receiver spend? That would be much more difficult to chart & likely noisier.
Same stat. Highest % of cap to the top paid WR
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
Same stat. Highest % of cap to the top paid WR
That's a slightly different stat - the QBs on the list aren't necessarily the highest paid on the team they're just the 1 who started the SB.

I'll check next time I'm on a computer to see if the info is available for free, or if someone has the info & wants to send it to me, I can plug into spreadsheet.
 

TheRooster

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2001
2,483
Yeah, that's my general philosophy on team building - pay for elite QBs, don't pay for meh QBs. Reset if you have to.

The only meh QBs who have won Super Bowls while making a decent chunk of the cap are Eli x2 & Bronco Peyton.
I have to believe the Pats have been tracking this insightful ratio for years. Maybe even reviewing it with Brady towards the end. Thank you for compiling it JM3
 

JM3

often quoted
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Dec 14, 2019
14,292
I'll echo the sentiments - great info. Did you happen to do the same with SB losing QBs?
Here's SB losing QBs. Some of these #s on the crappy QBs may be inaccurate, though...OverTheCap has a really good breakdown of cap hit for a player over each year of their career, but they don't have it available for everyone. Spotrac only has the amount earned in a year available for the older players, so for example the Chris Chandler thing may not be real.

Year SB Loser QB Cap Hit Cap % of Cap
2022​
$208,200,000​
2021​
Bengals Joe Burrow
$8,225,031​
$182,500,000​
4.51%​
2020​
Chiefs Patrick Mahomes
$5,346,508​
$198,200,000​
2.70%​
2019​
49ers Jimmy Garoppolo
$20,000,000​
$188,200,000​
10.63%​
2018​
Rams Jared Goff
$7,619,365​
$177,200,000​
4.30%​
2017​
Patriots Tom Brady
$14,000,000​
$167,000,000​
8.38%​
2016​
Falcons Matt Ryan
$23,750,000​
$155,270,000​
15.30%​
2015​
Panthers Cam Newton
$13,000,000​
$143,280,000​
9.07%​
2014​
Seahawks Russell Wilson
$817,302​
$133,000,000​
0.61%​
2013​
Broncos Peyton Manning
$15,000,000​
$123,600,000​
12.14%​
2012​
49ers Colin Kaepernick
$1,164,613​
$120,600,000​
0.97%​
2011​
Patriots Tom Brady
$13,200,000​
$120,375,000​
10.97%​
2010​
Steelers Ben Roesthlisberger
$10,355,882​
UNCAPPED
#VALUE!​
2009​
Colts Peyton Manning
$21,199,998​
$123,000,000​
17.24%​
2008​
Cardinals Kurt Warner
$6,000,000​
$116,000,000​
5.17%​
2007​
Patriots Tom Brady
$7,340,000​
$109,000,000​
6.73%​
2006​
Bears Rex Grossman
$625,000​
$102,000,000​
0.61%​
2005​
Seahawks Matt Hasselbeck
$6,200,000​
$85,500,000​
7.25%​
2004​
Eagles Donovan McNabb
$7,861,055​
$80,582,000​
9.76%​
2003​
Panthers Jake Delhomme
$2,530,000​
$75,007,000​
3.37%​
2002​
Raiders Rich Gannon
$6,000,000​
$71,101,000​
8.44%​
2001​
Rams Kurt Warner
$2,264,857​
$67,405,000​
3.36%​
2000​
Giants Kerry Collins
$2,000,000​
$62,172,000​
3.22%​
1999​
Titans Steve McNair
$6,073,142​
$57,288,000​
10.60%​
1998​
Falcons Chris Chandler
$8,300,000​
$52,388,000​
15.84%​
1997​
Packers Brett Favre
$4,175,000​
$41,454,000​
10.07%​
1996​
Patriots Drew Bledsoe
$4,092,857​
$40,753,000​
10.04%​
1995​
Steelers Neil O'Donnell
$2,400,000​
$37,100,000​
6.47%​
1994​
Chargers Stan Humphries
$3,100,000​
$34,608,000​
8.96%​
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
Independent of the great QB-related information @JM3 has dug up, just look at the salary cap column on its own for a minute. The cap has tripled in the last 20 years. It's sextupled in the last 30 years!
Yeah, I definitely looked at those #s for a while when I was doing the chart - my primary thought was good for the players.

Here's the year-over-year % increases:

Salary Cap % Increase
1994​
$34,608,000​
1995​
$37,100,000​
7.20%​
1996​
$40,753,000​
9.85%​
1997​
$41,454,000​
1.72%​
1998​
$52,388,000​
26.38%​
1999​
$57,288,000​
9.35%​
2000​
$62,172,000​
8.53%​
2001​
$67,405,000​
8.42%​
2002​
$71,101,000​
5.48%​
2003​
$75,007,000​
5.49%​
2004​
$80,582,000​
7.43%​
2005​
$85,500,000​
6.10%​
2006​
$102,000,000​
19.30%​
2007​
$109,000,000​
6.86%​
2008​
$116,000,000​
6.42%​
2009​
$123,000,000​
6.03%​
2010​
UNCAPPED N/A
2011​
$120,375,000​
-2.13%​
2012​
$120,600,000​
0.19%​
2013​
$123,600,000​
2.49%​
2014​
$133,000,000​
7.61%​
2015​
$143,280,000​
7.73%​
2016​
$155,270,000​
8.37%​
2017​
$167,000,000​
7.55%​
2018​
$177,200,000​
6.11%​
2019​
$188,200,000​
6.21%​
2020​
$198,200,000​
5.31%​
2021​
$182,500,000​
-7.92%​
2022​
$208,200,000​
14.08%​
 

Cotillion

New Member
Jun 11, 2019
4,926
Independent of the great QB-related information @JM3 has dug up, just look at the salary cap column on its own for a minute. The cap has tripled in the last 20 years. It's sextupled in the last 30 years!
and the poor owners are in such trouble monetarily they will complain about it in the next CBA negotiations. It really is crazy. Also that is often with the players share of revenue for the cap going down over that time period.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
14,292
Same stat. Highest % of cap to the top paid WR
I think I'd have to pay Spotrac $30/year to get this information further back than 2019, which would probably be fine except the related productivity cost that would go along with the additional time I would waste on things lol.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,069
Hingham, MA
I think I'd have to pay Spotrac $30/year to get this information further back than 2019, which would probably be fine except the related productivity cost that would go along with the additional time I would waste on things lol.
I’ll fund it if you’ll do the research!!
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
I’ll fund it if you’ll do the research!!
Looking at it, I'm not sure if they will have that data going back past 2011 anyway. Definitely don't want anyone wasting money on it if it's not doable.
 

ZMart100

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2008
3,190
Here's SB losing QBs. Some of these #s on the crappy QBs may be inaccurate, though...OverTheCap has a really good breakdown of cap hit for a player over each year of their career, but they don't have it available for everyone. Spotrac only has the amount earned in a year available for the older players, so for example the Chris Chandler thing may not be real.

Year SB Loser QB Cap Hit Cap % of Cap
2022​
$208,200,000​
2021​
Bengals Joe Burrow
$8,225,031​
$182,500,000​
4.51%​
2020​
Chiefs Patrick Mahomes
$5,346,508​
$198,200,000​
2.70%​
2019​
49ers Jimmy Garoppolo
$20,000,000​
$188,200,000​
10.63%​
2018​
Rams Jared Goff
$7,619,365​
$177,200,000​
4.30%​
2017​
Patriots Tom Brady
$14,000,000​
$167,000,000​
8.38%​
2016​
Falcons Matt Ryan
$23,750,000​
$155,270,000​
15.30%​
2015​
Panthers Cam Newton
$13,000,000​
$143,280,000​
9.07%​
2014​
Seahawks Russell Wilson
$817,302​
$133,000,000​
0.61%​
2013​
Broncos Peyton Manning
$15,000,000​
$123,600,000​
12.14%​
2012​
49ers Colin Kaepernick
$1,164,613​
$120,600,000​
0.97%​
2011​
Patriots Tom Brady
$13,200,000​
$120,375,000​
10.97%​
2010​
Steelers Ben Roesthlisberger
$10,355,882​
UNCAPPED
#VALUE!​
2009​
Colts Peyton Manning
$21,199,998​
$123,000,000​
17.24%​
2008​
Cardinals Kurt Warner
$6,000,000​
$116,000,000​
5.17%​
2007​
Patriots Tom Brady
$7,340,000​
$109,000,000​
6.73%​
2006​
Bears Rex Grossman
$625,000​
$102,000,000​
0.61%​
2005​
Seahawks Matt Hasselbeck
$6,200,000​
$85,500,000​
7.25%​
2004​
Eagles Donovan McNabb
$7,861,055​
$80,582,000​
9.76%​
2003​
Panthers Jake Delhomme
$2,530,000​
$75,007,000​
3.37%​
2002​
Raiders Rich Gannon
$6,000,000​
$71,101,000​
8.44%​
2001​
Rams Kurt Warner
$2,264,857​
$67,405,000​
3.36%​
2000​
Giants Kerry Collins
$2,000,000​
$62,172,000​
3.22%​
1999​
Titans Steve McNair
$6,073,142​
$57,288,000​
10.60%​
1998​
Falcons Chris Chandler
$8,300,000​
$52,388,000​
15.84%​
1997​
Packers Brett Favre
$4,175,000​
$41,454,000​
10.07%​
1996​
Patriots Drew Bledsoe
$4,092,857​
$40,753,000​
10.04%​
1995​
Steelers Neil O'Donnell
$2,400,000​
$37,100,000​
6.47%​
1994​
Chargers Stan Humphries
$3,100,000​
$34,608,000​
8.96%​
Yup, the Chandler number looks wrong. Denver Post had his '98 cap number at 3.5m.
 

JM3

often quoted
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Dec 14, 2019
14,292
Yup, the Chandler number looks wrong. Denver Post had his '98 cap number at 3.5m.
Thx! That's an unusual article...

I lol'd at the last paragraph...

Many of these players will be the Broncos' nucleus in the years to come. It is why, even after Elway retires, the Broncos expect to remain highly competitive.
But then I saw that after a 6-10 season the next year, they were actually 11-5 with Brian Griese the year after & also had some good Jake Plummer years not long after that.

Here's the chart with Chandler's # updated spoiled cuz redundancy:

Year SB Loser QB Cap Hit Cap % of Cap
2022​
$208,200,000​
2021​
Bengals Joe Burrow
$8,225,031​
$182,500,000​
4.51%​
2020​
Chiefs Patrick Mahomes
$5,346,508​
$198,200,000​
2.70%​
2019​
49ers Jimmy Garoppolo
$20,000,000​
$188,200,000​
10.63%​
2018​
Rams Jared Goff
$7,619,365​
$177,200,000​
4.30%​
2017​
Patriots Tom Brady
$14,000,000​
$167,000,000​
8.38%​
2016​
Falcons Matt Ryan
$23,750,000​
$155,270,000​
15.30%​
2015​
Panthers Cam Newton
$13,000,000​
$143,280,000​
9.07%​
2014​
Seahawks Russell Wilson
$817,302​
$133,000,000​
0.61%​
2013​
Broncos Peyton Manning
$15,000,000​
$123,600,000​
12.14%​
2012​
49ers Colin Kaepernick
$1,164,613​
$120,600,000​
0.97%​
2011​
Patriots Tom Brady
$13,200,000​
$120,375,000​
10.97%​
2010​
Steelers Ben Roesthlisberger
$10,355,882​
UNCAPPED
#VALUE!​
2009​
Colts Peyton Manning
$21,199,998​
$123,000,000​
17.24%​
2008​
Cardinals Kurt Warner
$6,000,000​
$116,000,000​
5.17%​
2007​
Patriots Tom Brady
$7,340,000​
$109,000,000​
6.73%​
2006​
Bears Rex Grossman
$625,000​
$102,000,000​
0.61%​
2005​
Seahawks Matt Hasselbeck
$6,200,000​
$85,500,000​
7.25%​
2004​
Eagles Donovan McNabb
$7,861,055​
$80,582,000​
9.76%​
2003​
Panthers Jake Delhomme
$2,530,000​
$75,007,000​
3.37%​
2002​
Raiders Rich Gannon
$6,000,000​
$71,101,000​
8.44%​
2001​
Rams Kurt Warner
$2,264,857​
$67,405,000​
3.36%​
2000​
Giants Kerry Collins
$2,000,000​
$62,172,000​
3.22%​
1999​
Titans Steve McNair
$6,073,142​
$57,288,000​
10.60%​
1998​
Falcons Chris Chandler
$3,500,000​
$52,388,000​
6.68%​
1997​
Packers Brett Favre
$4,175,000​
$41,454,000​
10.07%​
1996​
Patriots Drew Bledsoe
$4,092,857​
$40,753,000​
10.04%​
1995​
Steelers Neil O'Donnell
$2,400,000​
$37,100,000​
6.47%​
1994​
Chargers Stan Humphries
$3,100,000​
$34,608,000​
8.96%​
 

ZMart100

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2008
3,190
Thx! That's an unusual article...

I lol'd at the last paragraph...



But then I saw that after a 6-10 season the next year, they were actually 11-5 with Brian Griese the year after & also had some good Jake Plummer years not long after that.

Here's the chart with Chandler's # updated spoiled cuz redundancy:

Year SB Loser QB Cap Hit Cap % of Cap
2022​
$208,200,000​
2021​
Bengals Joe Burrow
$8,225,031​
$182,500,000​
4.51%​
2020​
Chiefs Patrick Mahomes
$5,346,508​
$198,200,000​
2.70%​
2019​
49ers Jimmy Garoppolo
$20,000,000​
$188,200,000​
10.63%​
2018​
Rams Jared Goff
$7,619,365​
$177,200,000​
4.30%​
2017​
Patriots Tom Brady
$14,000,000​
$167,000,000​
8.38%​
2016​
Falcons Matt Ryan
$23,750,000​
$155,270,000​
15.30%​
2015​
Panthers Cam Newton
$13,000,000​
$143,280,000​
9.07%​
2014​
Seahawks Russell Wilson
$817,302​
$133,000,000​
0.61%​
2013​
Broncos Peyton Manning
$15,000,000​
$123,600,000​
12.14%​
2012​
49ers Colin Kaepernick
$1,164,613​
$120,600,000​
0.97%​
2011​
Patriots Tom Brady
$13,200,000​
$120,375,000​
10.97%​
2010​
Steelers Ben Roesthlisberger
$10,355,882​
UNCAPPED
#VALUE!​
2009​
Colts Peyton Manning
$21,199,998​
$123,000,000​
17.24%​
2008​
Cardinals Kurt Warner
$6,000,000​
$116,000,000​
5.17%​
2007​
Patriots Tom Brady
$7,340,000​
$109,000,000​
6.73%​
2006​
Bears Rex Grossman
$625,000​
$102,000,000​
0.61%​
2005​
Seahawks Matt Hasselbeck
$6,200,000​
$85,500,000​
7.25%​
2004​
Eagles Donovan McNabb
$7,861,055​
$80,582,000​
9.76%​
2003​
Panthers Jake Delhomme
$2,530,000​
$75,007,000​
3.37%​
2002​
Raiders Rich Gannon
$6,000,000​
$71,101,000​
8.44%​
2001​
Rams Kurt Warner
$2,264,857​
$67,405,000​
3.36%​
2000​
Giants Kerry Collins
$2,000,000​
$62,172,000​
3.22%​
1999​
Titans Steve McNair
$6,073,142​
$57,288,000​
10.60%​
1998​
Falcons Chris Chandler
$3,500,000​
$52,388,000​
6.68%​
1997​
Packers Brett Favre
$4,175,000​
$41,454,000​
10.07%​
1996​
Patriots Drew Bledsoe
$4,092,857​
$40,753,000​
10.04%​
1995​
Steelers Neil O'Donnell
$2,400,000​
$37,100,000​
6.47%​
1994​
Chargers Stan Humphries
$3,100,000​
$34,608,000​
8.96%​
Yup, the Adam Schefter guy who wrote it probably didn't last long in the industry with analysis like that.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
This was something I looked into a lot for dumbazz reasons a few years ago on another message board (I vehemently argued that a team could never win a Super Bowl paying Kirk Cousins full market value).
This is interesting data, but it's incomplete. The Rams didn't pay QBs $20 MM last year ... they paid QBs $44.7 MM because of Goff's $24.7 MM dead charge. So LA was actually paying a massive amount of their cap to QBs and still won.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
This is interesting data, but it's incomplete. The Rams didn't pay QBs $20 MM last year ... they paid QBs $44.7 MM because of Goff's $24.7 MM dead charge. So LA was actually paying a massive amount of their cap to QBs and still won.
Yeah... the Rams year really was unprecedented in a lot of ways.

They had $49.4m in dead cap that they were able to overcome by artificially deflating basically everyone else's salary.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
I think this may be the 1st thread I ever 'started.'
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,387
Yeah... the Rams year really was unprecedented in a lot of ways.

They had $49.4m in dead cap that they were able to overcome by artificially deflating basically everyone else's salary.
At SOME point, the bill comes due though, right?
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
At SOME point, the bill comes due though, right?
Yeah...I mean I would bet their under in '25.

Teams with non-elite, old, or rookie contract pretty good QBs going all-in on shorter windows with the understanding that they'll have to have a huge tax bill one year & tank that year is probably the optimal strategy to compete against teams with elite QBs who won't be able to tank & need to reload (e.g. Chiefs who have Mahomes' next 10+ years to manage).
 

DanoooME

above replacement level
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2008
19,831
Henderson, NV
At SOME point, the bill comes due though, right?
Depends on what the cap does and how well you manage that money. In theory, if the cap keeps going up a decent amount every year, you can work around it. Like the Rams now, and the Saints have for years.
 

Cotillion

New Member
Jun 11, 2019
4,926
So long as you don't have bad luck (injuries, unexpected retirements, etc) that force your hand on how you allocate, but you are limiting yourself to the safety valves you have.

but you can keep the plates up in the air for a long time.
 

Shelterdog

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2002
15,375
New York City
Cant' recall the podcast--maybe something with Robert Mays--but I heard someone saying that an unnamed GM articulated the salary cap in a way that made to sense to me.

As I recall it the explanation was: The cap is [I don't recall, say 175 million]. You're not going to win much with a 175 million roster. To win a superbowl your roster need to play like you have 225 million worth of players playing . So you need find that extra value somehow--rookies on cheap contracts playing well, not losing much value to injury, cheap vets outperforming their contracts, something.

I think that's roughly right. Indeed when you look at a lot of the underdog super bowl winners you see teams like the Ravens or Giants where they got a ton of that kind of outperformance by QB who played like absolute studs in the post season. Or you get the Pats getting a lot of surplus value from Brady.

Anyhow I think the point is you have to get that value from somewhere and if you are paying a good QB a lot that's probably fine but you need to do a pretty great job at roster construction everywhere else because it's going to be really hard for even a Mahomes or Allen to consistently play above a 40 or 50 million salary.
 

BusRaker

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 11, 2006
2,371
I'm still convinced the salary cap is becoming some Ponzi-scheme where teams just keep paying players more to restructure and extend to reduce cap hits.

"I learned it from watching you, US government" (sorry about the politics!)
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
Cant' recall the podcast--maybe something with Robert Mays--but I heard someone saying that an unnamed GM articulated the salary cap in a way that made to sense to me.

As I recall it the explanation was: The cap is [I don't recall, say 175 million]. You're not going to win much with a 175 million roster. To win a superbowl your roster need to play like you have 225 million worth of players playing . So you need find that extra value somehow--rookies on cheap contracts playing well, not losing much value to injury, cheap vets outperforming their contracts, something.

I think that's roughly right. Indeed when you look at a lot of the underdog super bowl winners you see teams like the Ravens or Giants where they got a ton of that kind of outperformance by QB who played like absolute studs in the post season. Or you get the Pats getting a lot of surplus value from Brady.

Anyhow I think the point is you have to get that value from somewhere and if you are paying a good QB a lot that's probably fine but you need to do a pretty great job at roster construction everywhere else because it's going to be really hard for even a Mahomes or Allen to consistently play above a 40 or 50 million salary.
Yeah, that's exactly correct. Everyone can pay their team the same you have to find the way to get the most surplus value out of the room you have.
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
9,193
San Francisco
I'm still convinced the salary cap is becoming some Ponzi-scheme where teams just keep paying players more to restructure and extend to reduce cap hits.

"I learned it from watching you, US government" (sorry about the politics!)
The math of amortizing the bonus money and the way dead cap works guarantees it cannot be some Ponzi scheme. Over say a 5 year period each team can spend roughly the same amount, with (small) differences coming from the cap growing year over year.
 

Sandwich Pick

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2017
701
Yeah, I definitely looked at those #s for a while when I was doing the chart - my primary thought was good for the players.

Here's the year-over-year % increases:

Salary Cap % Increase
1994​
$34,608,000​
1995​
$37,100,000​
7.20%​
1996​
$40,753,000​
9.85%​
1997​
$41,454,000​
1.72%​
1998​
$52,388,000​
26.38%​
1999​
$57,288,000​
9.35%​
2000​
$62,172,000​
8.53%​
2001​
$67,405,000​
8.42%​
2002​
$71,101,000​
5.48%​
2003​
$75,007,000​
5.49%​
2004​
$80,582,000​
7.43%​
2005​
$85,500,000​
6.10%​
2006​
$102,000,000​
19.30%​
2007​
$109,000,000​
6.86%​
2008​
$116,000,000​
6.42%​
2009​
$123,000,000​
6.03%​
2010​
UNCAPPED N/A
2011​
$120,375,000​
-2.13%​
2012​
$120,600,000​
0.19%​
2013​
$123,600,000​
2.49%​
2014​
$133,000,000​
7.61%​
2015​
$143,280,000​
7.73%​
2016​
$155,270,000​
8.37%​
2017​
$167,000,000​
7.55%​
2018​
$177,200,000​
6.11%​
2019​
$188,200,000​
6.21%​
2020​
$198,200,000​
5.31%​
2021​
$182,500,000​
-7.92%​
2022​
$208,200,000​
14.08%​
This shows the immense value of the TV deals. The increases in 1998, 2006 and 2022 were from new deals with new networks.
 

Cotillion

New Member
Jun 11, 2019
4,926
Yeah, I definitely looked at those #s for a while when I was doing the chart - my primary thought was good for the players.

Here's the year-over-year % increases:

Salary Cap % Increase
1994​
$34,608,000​
1995​
$37,100,000​
7.20%​
1996​
$40,753,000​
9.85%​
1997​
$41,454,000​
1.72%​
1998​
$52,388,000​
26.38%​
1999​
$57,288,000​
9.35%​
2000​
$62,172,000​
8.53%​
2001​
$67,405,000​
8.42%​
2002​
$71,101,000​
5.48%​
2003​
$75,007,000​
5.49%​
2004​
$80,582,000​
7.43%​
2005​
$85,500,000​
6.10%​
2006​
$102,000,000​
19.30%​
2007​
$109,000,000​
6.86%​
2008​
$116,000,000​
6.42%​
2009​
$123,000,000​
6.03%​
2010​
UNCAPPED N/A
2011​
$120,375,000​
-2.13%​
2012​
$120,600,000​
0.19%​
2013​
$123,600,000​
2.49%​
2014​
$133,000,000​
7.61%​
2015​
$143,280,000​
7.73%​
2016​
$155,270,000​
8.37%​
2017​
$167,000,000​
7.55%​
2018​
$177,200,000​
6.11%​
2019​
$188,200,000​
6.21%​
2020​
$198,200,000​
5.31%​
2021​
$182,500,000​
-7.92%​
2022​
$208,200,000​
14.08%​
Still can’t believe the Union gave up the “uncapped” year with illegal collusion that was still capped cause the NFL explicitly fined teams for using it as an advantage.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
This shows the immense value of the TV deals. The increases in 1998, 2006 and 2022 were from new deals with new networks.
The 2022 "bump" is just a smoothing from the Covid year I believe. I think the new TV $ will kick in for 2023 cap.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,479
Melrose, MA
This is interesting data, but it's incomplete. The Rams didn't pay QBs $20 MM last year ... they paid QBs $44.7 MM because of Goff's $24.7 MM dead charge. So LA was actually paying a massive amount of their cap to QBs and still won.
But "QB dead money" is no different than dead money for any other type of player.

I think the relevant question here is how much salary the roster QBs are getting and that is usually going to be defined by the starter's salary. But, for a team like the 2001 Pats, Bledsoe's salary might be the more relevant one - so the better measure might be how much a team is playing all of its rosteror IR QBs .

The interesting next step in this research (if it has not yet been done) is to look at the relationship between QB salary as a share of the cap and team success, either for all teams or just for playoff teams.