Sam Travis
- Thread starter Snodgrass'Muff
- Start date
Well it looks like Travis is continuin where he left off this Spring. His slash line in Pawtucket up to this point is .317/.353/.460 after a bit of a slow start in the first week. Nice to know we have a guy like that stashed away in Pawtucket if Hanley gets hurt or something.
Not honestly sure how long we can continue to contain this guy in the minors. Hanley better watch his tailfeathers at this rate.
Not honestly sure how long we can continue to contain this guy in the minors. Hanley better watch his tailfeathers at this rate.
Well his walk rate is around 6% right now, and he still only shows average-ish power in AAA, so there are still things for him to work on down there. From what I read from multiple sources, he would have to change the current path of his swing in order to get more fly balls and higher power numbers, which is something you'd rather have him work on in Pawtucket. But he is definitely proving he knows how to put a bat to a ball. I have no doubt he would be able to hit for average in the pros, but 1B sets a high offensive bar.
Yeah well, one thing to consider though -- we don't need crushing home run power from our corner guys. Kevin Youkilis was one of the best 1b we've ever had, certainly the best since Mo Vaughn, and when youk was a prospect he was always considered not the best power hitter -- he got it done with walks and doubles.
Righthanded hitters can do a ton of damage smashing line drives off the monster, that's how Youk became one of the best hitters in the league before injuries tore him apart. park factors consistently show Fenway as one of the most doubles friendly parks in the league, especially for RHH who like to make a lot of hard contact, and that describes hitters like Manny, Lowell, Youkilis, and Sam Travis. So a hitter for average can do a ton of damage here even without a natural tendency to hit a big fly, as long as he has the muscle to get it over the infield consistently and hits more than his share of hard line drives. Pretty confident that Travis can do that.
Not too worried about his walk rate BTW, his walk to strikeout rate last year in Portland was pretty close to 1-1. As long as plate discipline isn't a major problem, he'll do all right as long as he can keep making quality contact
Righthanded hitters can do a ton of damage smashing line drives off the monster, that's how Youk became one of the best hitters in the league before injuries tore him apart. park factors consistently show Fenway as one of the most doubles friendly parks in the league, especially for RHH who like to make a lot of hard contact, and that describes hitters like Manny, Lowell, Youkilis, and Sam Travis. So a hitter for average can do a ton of damage here even without a natural tendency to hit a big fly, as long as he has the muscle to get it over the infield consistently and hits more than his share of hard line drives. Pretty confident that Travis can do that.
Not too worried about his walk rate BTW, his walk to strikeout rate last year in Portland was pretty close to 1-1. As long as plate discipline isn't a major problem, he'll do all right as long as he can keep making quality contact
Youk was expected to be a doubles and line drive hitter when he was first called up, but he hit 29 home runs, in 2008, 27 in 2009 and 19 in just 102 games in 2010. One of the reasons he turned out to be such a great corner infield player is because that home run power materialized once he was called up and playing regularly. If it doesn't materialize for Travis, he could be a solid every day starter, but he'll also be quite replaceable for a 1st division team with World Series aspirations.
Also, Youk was a solid defensive third baseman and an excellent defensive first baseman. Travis is neither of those things. I'm high on him. Probably higher than most. But aside from his stance and swing being a bit reminiscent of Youk's and an ability to get on base at a good clip, they're not really all that similar and I don't think Youk is an instructive comp here. Plus, the latter breaks down when you look at actual walk rates for each.
Also, Youk was a solid defensive third baseman and an excellent defensive first baseman. Travis is neither of those things. I'm high on him. Probably higher than most. But aside from his stance and swing being a bit reminiscent of Youk's and an ability to get on base at a good clip, they're not really all that similar and I don't think Youk is an instructive comp here. Plus, the latter breaks down when you look at actual walk rates for each.
I think anyone looking at Youk's career without RedSox colored glasses would think he was chemically enhanced once he got to the bigs. There was nothing to suggest in 8 minor and major league seasons that iso power would jump from a peak of .170 to .250 in his age 29-32 seasons.
Now, he was a stellar defensive player and always had a fantastic walk rate.
How that spike happened is less important than the fact it did if we're projecting Sam Travis, though. Even if Youk peaked at 15 home runs per season in his prime, it's still not a great comp though, which you seem to agree with. That doesn't mean Travis can't be a good or very good player, but what we got out of Youk in his prime years just isn't on the table here.
We didn't think it was on the table from youk until he started doing it either. I wasn't here in the 2006 offseason, but I was around. There were a lot of calls to try to pick up an elite 1B in the 06-07 offseason. I seem to recall Todd Helton featuring prominently in a number of fantasies.
I agree that Youk isn't a great comp for Travis which would be why I wasn't using him as a comp, except in that he was a RHH who didn't initially hit for big HR power. Actually offensively I'd expect Travis to look a lot more like Mike Lowell with years being great, meh or terrible depending mostly on batting average. If he can get up into the .280's most years the way Lowell did, he should be a productive corner infielder, I think Travis is a fair bet to get there.
I agree that Youk isn't a great comp for Travis which would be why I wasn't using him as a comp, except in that he was a RHH who didn't initially hit for big HR power. Actually offensively I'd expect Travis to look a lot more like Mike Lowell with years being great, meh or terrible depending mostly on batting average. If he can get up into the .280's most years the way Lowell did, he should be a productive corner infielder, I think Travis is a fair bet to get there.
Understanding that part of the analogy, what you are missing that Youk did have an elite on base skill.
In 1843 minor league PA's (this include rehabs stints, etc. this point isn't worth me doing the math to isolate his pre call-up numbers) he walked 332 times (18% of his PA! 2005 AL was 8% for comparison) while only striking out 218 times (1.5 BB/K).
In 1843 minor league PA's (this include rehabs stints, etc. this point isn't worth me doing the math to isolate his pre call-up numbers) he walked 332 times (18% of his PA! 2005 AL was 8% for comparison) while only striking out 218 times (1.5 BB/K).
Yes, and that's why he was able to capitalize so extremely on exactly the tendency I think Travis will also be able to take advantage of as a Fenway hitter, even if Travis doesn't also have the elite hitting eye that Youk combined with that park factor to become one of the elite hitters in all of baseball.
I'm trying to talk about a park factor to explain why I don't think Travis needs vast amounts of big fly power to be a good hitter at Fenway, and no matter how much I try to point to that park factors you yahoos keep rubber banding back to some kind of skills comparison. I do not understand why this is difficult to communicate or understand.
The skills comparison I did make, to Mike Lowell and not to Youkilis, I think is pretty fair, and I think it represents a good 50th percentile projection for Travis.
I'm trying to talk about a park factor to explain why I don't think Travis needs vast amounts of big fly power to be a good hitter at Fenway, and no matter how much I try to point to that park factors you yahoos keep rubber banding back to some kind of skills comparison. I do not understand why this is difficult to communicate or understand.
The skills comparison I did make, to Mike Lowell and not to Youkilis, I think is pretty fair, and I think it represents a good 50th percentile projection for Travis.
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He's a very good prospect. But after less than 80 AB's in AAA, he definitely hasn't proven he has nothing left to work on and is ready to push an established big league hitter out of a position. He is on a level where they scout players for weaknesses for the first time, and his K/BB ratio has dropped from ~1/1 to ~5/1. His power is still about league average for a position that is expected to have plus power. That's ok, he can make that up somewhere else, but he isn't making it up with his defense either right now. It looks to me that barring an injury/emergency situation, he's going to be down there for a while longer until the walk rate comes up and he shows he has more to his game than just batting average. At many other positions, maybe even 3B, a great batting average and average tools otherwise can make you a very good player, but at first base the competition is more stiff, and you need to bring more to become a regular. Especially for a team with deep pockets and high expectations like the Sox. But he's a prospect, they all have things to work on, and they're all judged to be prospects because they have the potential to improve them.
Bri Mac in the Projo wrote about Travis hitting 2 bombs yesterday:
"The wind blowing out to right field Sunday only made it more impressive that Sam Travis hit a pair of home runs to left field, right into the teeth of it. The first baseman hit a curveball for a three-run home run in the first inning and then hit a changeup for a two-run home run in the fifth inning. Those two homers paced the PawSox to a 12-7 win over Gwinnett at McCoy Stadium on Sunday.Travis made a bid for a third home run in the seventh inning, but his fly ball to center field took a hard right turn when it got up into the wind.
"He made it look like it was blowing out to left," Boles said. "It was pretty amazing." Travis hit two home runs in the first week of the season but then went 26 games and more than 100 plate appearances without going deep. That drought came to an end when Travis hit a fastball off the left-field foul pole in the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader.
For the season, he's hitting .290 with a .349 on-base percentage and a .457 slugging percentage. "I think I've been trying to do too much a little bit," he said. "That caused me to swing at some pitches out of the zone. Going through the minor leagues and coming up to another level, it's a learning process and a game of adjustments."
"The wind blowing out to right field Sunday only made it more impressive that Sam Travis hit a pair of home runs to left field, right into the teeth of it. The first baseman hit a curveball for a three-run home run in the first inning and then hit a changeup for a two-run home run in the fifth inning. Those two homers paced the PawSox to a 12-7 win over Gwinnett at McCoy Stadium on Sunday.Travis made a bid for a third home run in the seventh inning, but his fly ball to center field took a hard right turn when it got up into the wind.
"He made it look like it was blowing out to left," Boles said. "It was pretty amazing." Travis hit two home runs in the first week of the season but then went 26 games and more than 100 plate appearances without going deep. That drought came to an end when Travis hit a fastball off the left-field foul pole in the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader.
For the season, he's hitting .290 with a .349 on-base percentage and a .457 slugging percentage. "I think I've been trying to do too much a little bit," he said. "That caused me to swing at some pitches out of the zone. Going through the minor leagues and coming up to another level, it's a learning process and a game of adjustments."
He must have read this. Since May 1 he's been back at 1:1 (8 K, 8 BB), cutting the 2016 ratio in half, to 2.5/1 (31/13).
Since then he's shown a good eye, and good power with a .200 ISO. His numbers are very good without a high BABIP (it's only .295), so it doesn't look like a lucky streak with balls in play. If he keeps that up, he makes a pretty strong argument he can be an above average first baseman.
“@alexspeier: Red Sox expect to know more about Sam Travis’ left leg injury by tomorrow, but there’s considerable concern. Source said Travis heard a pop.”
“@alexspeier: Here’s the story on Sam Travis’ leg injury https://t.co/MN5tp536Vv
“@alexspeier: Here’s the story on Sam Travis’ leg injury https://t.co/MN5tp536Vv
Rob Bradford @bradfo 29s30 seconds ago
Per source, it appears as though Sam Travis' left leg injury involves his ACL. @AlexSpeier first to report there was considerable concern.
Per source, it appears as though Sam Travis' left leg injury involves his ACL. @AlexSpeier first to report there was considerable concern.
Ryan Hannable @RyanHannable 21s21 seconds ago
Red Sox announce PawSox 1B Sam Travis tore his ACL yesterday. Done for the season
Terrible news for Sam.
Red Sox announce PawSox 1B Sam Travis tore his ACL yesterday. Done for the season
Terrible news for Sam.
Well atleast it's not looking like we'll need him this year and it's not like his service time is accruing. I guess he'll be on the radar for 2018 then.
This is true. And the bright side.
But an injury to Hanley or Shaw might have changed things even this year and Travis was also a possible trade chit. And who knows how long the rehab takes and if/when Travis will be back on track.
Sorry for the Debby Downer routine.
I think ACLs are pretty predictable, if it's just the ACL. 6-8 months should put him back in shape to play, and by spring training he should feel more or less fully healed. Obviously that's devoid of any knowledge of his actual situation, but they didn't say ACL+anything, the situations where it gets less predictable.
Nice article in the Eagle Tribune about Travis's "breakout spring," after he led the team with 6 HRs and 17 RBI in spring training. His work with Tim Hyers seems to have made a real difference:
"In the offseason Tim sent me some video comparing me to guys and showing me what I did wrong, how I got away from myself," Travis said. "He was comparing me to some other swings. I was able to see... I just fully bought in."
One of the hitters Hyers showed Travis was Dodgers All-Star Justin Turner, who he'd coached in Los Angeles. When Travis saw the two swings side by side, something clicked.
The analytical language of Travis' tweak may be complicated, but the concept is a simple one.
"I've been working on changing the plane in my swing, focusing on the bottom half of the ball and trying to get it in the air," Travis said. "I've always been a guy that's trying to hit the ball a hard and whatever happens happens. Now I'm just trying to hit it hard and in the air."
Hyers offered his two cents as well.
"Sometimes I think his bat was a little too direct to the ball," Hyers said. "I think some of his hard hits were probably more groundballs and more line drives more than now, getting on plane with the baseball. It's not fly balls. It's just getting behind it and squaring it up. That's where the ball takes off."
Dombrowski was impressed:
"We’re going to keep Sam Travis," Dombrowski said. "Travis has had a tremendous spring. He looks like the guy that we have thought he would be, that I was told was here. In addition to that, he not only has hit, but he’s hit for power. He’s made some little adjustments with our people, so we really like what we see.
“We like him a lot and think he’s a part of our future,” Dombrowski concluded."
"In the offseason Tim sent me some video comparing me to guys and showing me what I did wrong, how I got away from myself," Travis said. "He was comparing me to some other swings. I was able to see... I just fully bought in."
One of the hitters Hyers showed Travis was Dodgers All-Star Justin Turner, who he'd coached in Los Angeles. When Travis saw the two swings side by side, something clicked.
The analytical language of Travis' tweak may be complicated, but the concept is a simple one.
"I've been working on changing the plane in my swing, focusing on the bottom half of the ball and trying to get it in the air," Travis said. "I've always been a guy that's trying to hit the ball a hard and whatever happens happens. Now I'm just trying to hit it hard and in the air."
Hyers offered his two cents as well.
"Sometimes I think his bat was a little too direct to the ball," Hyers said. "I think some of his hard hits were probably more groundballs and more line drives more than now, getting on plane with the baseball. It's not fly balls. It's just getting behind it and squaring it up. That's where the ball takes off."
Dombrowski was impressed:
"We’re going to keep Sam Travis," Dombrowski said. "Travis has had a tremendous spring. He looks like the guy that we have thought he would be, that I was told was here. In addition to that, he not only has hit, but he’s hit for power. He’s made some little adjustments with our people, so we really like what we see.
“We like him a lot and think he’s a part of our future,” Dombrowski concluded."
Based on what?
Both had excellent college careers, but the numbers don’t show Travis being superior.