San Siro's Siren Call: 2015-16 UEFA Champions League

Vinho Tinto

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Still 35 minutes left in the 2nd half, but Porto needs a miracle. They either need to turn around a two goal deficit or Maccabi (0 points and -15 GD) needs to pull out a draw @ Dynamo.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Walcott looks totally off the pace. This seems to happen whenever he comes back after a layoff. He gets super tentative with his decision making and pretty much fucks up every attacking sequence.
 

Warning Track Speed

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So if the proposition was: Bayern, Barca, and Real will all make the semis, which side of the wager would you take? (Obviously the bet's off if two of them get drawn in the quarters, but otherwise...) I guess you'd be hoping for City or PSG to be the spoiler? Which of the three is least likely to get that far? Real?
 

Schnerres

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As long as there is one of the better teams (Barca, Bayern) in the final, I would love if there´s a lopsided schedule with a tough and an easier draw. Smth like Juve-Bayern (or Juve-Real) or PSG-Barca on the one hand and an easier draw like Gent vs Wolfsburg, Benfica vs Zenit or PSV vs Chelsea and Eindhoven advancing over another british team.
 

Vinho Tinto

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I didn't know that Benfica was richer than Porto, especially to that extent.
Porto is a very well run club, but their fanbase doesn't extend too far beyond northern Portugal. Both Benfica and Sporting have larger fanbases. They generate lower revenues than SLB, but their net profit is higher due to lower operating expenses. Although their debt is on the rise.

Benfica has been aggressive in trying to raise revenues during the last 10 years (A campaign to increase membership and then created the television network). From the mid-90s until roughly the new stadium opening up, they were primarily focused on cleaning the financial mess they dug themselves in.

Outside the 4 largest leagues, the clubs whose revenues numbers that surprise me are Turkish. The money they make from domestic television for the Champions League matches dwarfs that of the Portuguese.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Porto is a very well run club, but their fanbase doesn't extend too far beyond northern Portugal. Both Benfica and Sporting have larger fanbases. They generate lower revenues than SLB, but their net profit is higher due to lower operating expenses. Although their debt is on the rise.

Benfica has been aggressive in trying to raise revenues during the last 10 years (A campaign to increase membership and then created the television network). From the mid-90s until roughly the new stadium opening up, they were primarily focused on cleaning the financial mess they dug themselves in.

Outside the 4 largest leagues, the clubs whose revenues numbers that surprise me are Turkish. The money they make from domestic television for the Champions League matches dwarfs that of the Portuguese.
I agree about the Turkish clubs being surprisingly strong. It was pretty interesting, for instance, to see Galatasaray agree to take on Van Persie's wages this summer (although maybe Manchester United is secretly paying part of that). The numbers compiled each year by Deloitte suggest that its less about broadcasting revenue, however, than about strong matchday and commercial revenue. Galatasaray makes more on matchday than any club in Italy and they are not far behind clubs like Manchester City and Liverpool, which is all pretty incredible when you consider the differences in affluence between Turkey and Western Europe. Turks are mad for football.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Porto is a very well run club, but their fanbase doesn't extend too far beyond northern Portugal. Both Benfica and Sporting have larger fanbases. They generate lower revenues than SLB, but their net profit is higher due to lower operating expenses. Although their debt is on the rise.
Speaking of Porto, what are your thoughts on Ruben Neves? Could he be a regular starter in the Premier League at this age for a top club?
 

Vinho Tinto

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At this age, no. But that's not a problem. Pinto Da Costa is a shrewd negotiator and will not let him go early. He's going to stay at Porto for a while. He's not a foreign signing that they're looking to flip. He came up through their system and has been named captain a few times.

The guy to watch is William Carvalho. He's likely to leave next summer. He's 23 and is big. Sporting increased his wage two years ago, but he's at a point where he's ready to play in another league. The offers his agent will get will be tough to turn down.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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At this age, no. But that's not a problem. Pinto Da Costa is a shrewd negotiator and will not let him go early. He's going to stay at Porto for a while. He's not a foreign signing that they're looking to flip. He came up through their system and has been named captain a few times.

The guy to watch is William Carvalho. He's likely to leave next summer. He's 23 and is big. Sporting increased his wage two years ago, but he's at a point where he's ready to play in another league. The offers his agent will get will be tough to turn down.
Thanks VT.

Many sources, some even fairly reliable ones, have reported that Arsenal have been scouting Neves at every match for a while. But it seems like any unlikely deal for several reasons (including the bad blood between Wenger and Mendes) and what you say makes me think its even more unlikely, as Porto don't have much incentive to sell. We've been linked with Carvalho on and off for two years as well but I've never gotten a sense of whether our interest is genuine.
 

Luis Taint

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The round of sixteen draw is now, Arsenal's best bet to go through is Zenit, which means it will get Barcelona.
 

Schnerres

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PSG-Chelsea
Benfica-Zenit

Gent-Wolfsburg
Roma-Real

Arsenal-Barca
Juve-Bayern

PSV-Atletico
Dynamo Kiev-City

Easiest draws: Zenit, Wolfsburg, Atleti, City.
 

Titans Bastard

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Zenit and Benfica see a lot of each other. They faced each other in the Round of 16 in 2011-12 (4-3 Benfica on agg) and in the group stage last season (Zenit won both games).

For whatever it's worth, Zenit are having a pretty mediocre domestic season right now.
 

Schnerres

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I didn´t mean to say that this pairing is an easy draw for Zenit and they will advance over Benfica without any trouble. I meant that they got a relatively easy opposition compared to other possible draws (hello Juve, PSG).
I don't know much about Zenit, but I was impressed with Benfica against Atletico. They have some talented players and are a physical team.
You have a case here, Benfica aren´t easy to beat, have lots of international experience and should cause some trouble, especially when you consider that the Portuguese Premier League plays through without a winter break and the Russian Premjer League has a break until 1st of march (CL round of 16 starts in february), so the Russians should feel some rust.
 

Vinho Tinto

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You have a case here, Benfica aren´t easy to beat, have lots of international experience and should cause some trouble, especially when you consider that the Portuguese Premier League plays through without a winter break and the Russian Premjer League has a break until 1st of march (CL round of 16 starts in february), so the Russians should feel some rust.
There is a break, but to your point it is minimal (Roughly a week). It's been clear that the Russian teams are off after the long break but there's nothing they can do about it. When Zenit hosted Benfica in 2012 the field was frozen.
 
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Zososoxfan

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PSG-Chelsea
Benfica-Zenit

Gent-Wolfsburg
Roma-Real

Arsenal-Barca
Juve-Bayern

PSV-Atletico
Dynamo Kiev-City

Easiest draws: Zenit, Wolfsburg, Atleti, City.
Juve-Bayern and Chelsea-PSG should be awesome. With Real in shambles right now, I think Roma has a shot against them.

I feel confident for Barca against Arse, but it's certainly not a gimme that some are making it out to be. Arse can definitely score on Barca, but getting the ball to Sanchez, Ozil, and Giroud will be a challenge. How will Arse avoid getting overrun in MF? Because I don't think their D can prevent Barca from scoring entirely.

PSG, Benfica, Wolfsburg, Real, Barca, Bayern, Atelti, MANC go thru.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Chelsea-PSG should be pretty interesting. Chelsea has been much better in the last month, but that makeshift back line could get torched by a very tricky front three of Lucas-Ibra-DiMaria and I don't really see Chelsea solving the problem that bedeviled them in this tie last year, which was Verratti dominating possession in midfield.

On the other hand, its so hard to know what to expect from PSG, which have been on cruise control all year. They are 18-2-0 in their last 20 Ligue 1 matches. Overall this year, they're 33-4-0 in matches not against Real Madrid, and were 0-1-1 in those matches during the CL group stage. What does it do to a team to go months and months without playing anybody remotely at your level? Even Bayern has to play clubs like BvB, Schalke, Gladbach, Wolfsburg, and Bayer, which are not at their level but all of which are better than any other Ligue 1 club. The best team PSG has played other than Real Madrid is probably a Monaco team that had a fire sale before the season and has a goal differential of +8 in a very weak league.

Also, if you haven't already done so, check out Serge Aurier's periscope video from last weekend.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Remember to hold your noses and cheer for Real and Bayern over the next two weeks BPL fans. I guess that also applies to Spurs, Galatasaray and Villareal on the Europa side.
 

bosox4283

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I don't understand the tactics of jumping during a free kick. It seems to be something that a lot of players don't do well.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I don't understand the tactics of jumping during a free kick. It seems to be something that a lot of players don't do well.
I don't mind jumping because many kicks are attempts to get just over the wall and very few actually try to go under the wall. But you have to jump straight and keep your eye on the ball. Turning your body facilitates that kind of slight deflection.

Edit: And Willian is going to get a chance on a very dangerous free kick here too...
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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And Mikel, of all people, knots it at 1-1 and secures an away goal.

Bizarrely, after the events of the last year, this Chelsea team is playing better than the squad that faced PSG last spring.
 

Seven Costanza

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Mikel's just repaying the trust Hiddink's placed in him.

Shit he took that goal well. A lot calmer on that ball than you'd ever expect him to be. Poacher's finish!
 
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I think Zlatan is hurt. He's not moving well at all his last 10 touches.

edit: or crashing in to clean up on crosses and pingpongs in the box.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Classy finish by Cavani and PSG are deservedly up 2-1.

It will be interesting to see how the teams react. This is a scoreline both can live with but another goal either way will really tilt the tie.
 

Schnerres

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Cuadrado shouldn´t be in too many situations as RB against Douglas Costa..
And Thomas Müller with a 100% chance, but couldn´t hit it clear from 3m.
 

Schnerres

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Bayern with 75+% possession, Pep´s game. If they don´t score, this will get dangerous for them. Some counters for Juve (already had 1-2), it either ends 0-0 or 1-0 for Juve with a counter and that´s Juve´s dream. Bayern already had a few good chances and didn´t score. If they score, this will calm down. Very tense...